night watch:  rfn=YEKATERINBURG (SVERDLOVSK) - "Iran must find the courage to start fully fledged cooperation with the international community."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was part of the policy statement from Russia President Dmitry Medvedev at a joint press conference in Yakaterinburg (Sverdlovsk) in the Ural mountains with Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel.  It is not surprising Berlin-Moscow are in complete agreement on the need to prepare for full scale war with Teheran, this conference and other meetings are being used to publicize their reasons.  Last year Berlin not only increased its military budget but also its strategic (military) relations with Moscow, a serious reflection of their mutual economic concerns revolving around resource security in Russia, Central Asia, Caucasus, West Asia (Middle East).  Both governments are aware Teheran has been supporting governments and groups in the Caucasus since 1994 when Chechnya erupted in the north and for the past few years Teheran has been shifting its military support to the Georgia government in Tbilisi in the south.  This has threatened to disrupt Russia's ability to export vast amounts of raw materials from the region to industrial concerns in the West led by Germany.  The Caucasus is a crossroads of energy pipelines as is Central Asia.  World War III is being fought for control over global energy resources and there is no market for salt in the Dead Sea, what Teheran said about Israel was nothing more than a distraction a publicity smokescreen.

President Medvedev continued, "I would like to say that Iran is our rather active trading partner and has been tested by time, but that does not mean we are indifferent to the way Iran is developing its nuclear program and we are not indifferent to how the military components of the corresponding program look.  In this respect we are waiting for the appropriate explanation from Iran."  Diplomatic masques are coming off.  Moscow is no longer investing any time in the myth of great, cooperative relations with Teheran.  For more than a year Russia warned about the real nature of Iran's successful satellite tests, that they were being used to produce ballistic missiles of very long range.  I would guess Teheran's response to will be very muted due to a realization the West-Russia's concerns will be reflected in combined miliary operations.  Moscow's preparations and plans are being directed by the Kissinger-Primakov Strategic Working Group (SWG) instituted in 2007 with the arrival of former U.S. Secretary of State Dr. Henry Kissinger to work with former Russia Premier Yevgeny Primakov.

rfn=Dogukapi -  Evidence points to full scale war before the summer is over beginning with either an incident at sea, with Allied governments intercepting ship(s) headed for Iran and Teheran responding, or by increased fighting in Iraq-Afghanistan.  And now there is this intriguing article in Hurriyet which carried this quote from a Turkish diplomat speaking in Ankara to AFP, "We will be taking part in the exercise.  We are looking into the possibility of whether the border may be opened if such a necessity arrives.  There has been no decision yet."  It is a NATO exercise and the decision in Ankara will determine if the alliance's equipment and personnel will be permitted to pass through the Turkey/Armenia border at Dogukapi in Turkey's northeast Kars province and from there into Armenia's Lori Mar region.  The Turkish diplomat said authorities are investigating whether or not the infrastructure is able to handle the transportation of equipment involved.  The Governor's office in Kars has prepared a report on the possible operation at the Foreign Ministry's request and has concluded the highways and railroads on the Turkish side of the border is in good condition and the Dogukapi crossing could remain open for at least a month.

Friday-Saturday senior diplomats will be meeting in Almaty in Kazakhstan on the sidelines of an Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) gathering but they should not take Turkey's cooperation for granted.  Ankara began to reject the concerns of the Brussels based alliance as Turkey watched NATO's power projected wars against Serbia during the 1990's and Ankara has probably viewed those wars as a power projection directed at Turkey.  Dogukapi crossing will be open but not for Brussels, for Teheran instead as it sends an army through Turkey headed for the NATO units in the former Yugoslavia.  Iran-Greece signed security agreements with Serbia in 2006 and Turkey will be willing to support attacks on the NATO units there.

rfn=Belgrade -  B92 reports the Serbia government in Belgrade has received more assurances from Beijing regarding Serbia's territorial integrity as Serbia Prime Minister Mirko Cvetkovic received the Chairman of China National Peoples Congress Standing Committee Wu Bangguo.  This will result in Beijing increasing military sales to Serbia and the ships are probably already enroute.  Bangguo reaffirmed Beijing's rejection of the independence declaration of the south Serbian province of Kosovo which was made in February 2008 and has been recognized by most of the NATO alliance and the European Union (EU) both of them based in Brussels.  Brussels led the regressive decision to divide the former Yugoslavia as it began to come apart in 1991 assuming it would be an orchestrated crisis displaying to the world new cooperation between Western-Central-Eastern Europe.  NATO-Warsaw Pact governments assumed the only military presence would be mainly ceremonial, headquarters and their staff and a few units here and there but they underestimated the impact of weapons dealers.

The mentality behind the decision is what I sometimes describe as evil with a clown face and I remember CNN showing a 1990 meeting of the military representatives of NATO-Warsaw Pact governments announcing they were going to merge their command.  The Generals making the announcement were actually laughing but that began to end as Teheran entered the conflict in 1992 by sending Islamic fighters to assist Bosnia-Herzegovina.  Ignorance in leadership is highly respected in the West as they laugh at consequences other people have to face.  That same year Iran established relations with every government in the former Yugoslavia including Croatia and announced Croatia is Iran's entry into Central Europe.  Since then Berlin has sent to Warsaw Leopard tanks, Washington sent Poland F-16s and Moscow has helped Poland upgrade its Soviet era military aircraft.  At the height of the Ottoman Empire there was a siege of Vienna that was eventually lifted by a Polish Count.  Brussels may not have envisioned the torrent of extreme nationalism that would take hold of the former Yugoslavia and a lot of the European continent as a result, nationalism in an area which set off the First World War 1914-18.

night watch:  rfn=TEHERAN -  "This is another attempt by Iran and others to influence the U.S. role here."  Washington Post/SUSTG News Review report that was the statement by U. S. General Ray Odierno on warnings Teheran has trained a new unit specifically designed only to attack the remaining Pentagon bases in Iraq this summer.  The unit is called Kataib Hezbollah and they had crossed over into Iran in order to be trained by the Revolutionary Guards and now they are back in Iraq.  The preparations/maneuvers Iran has made and conducted for the past year indicate Teheran realizes this is the year when they increase the fighting in both Iraq/Afghanistan as latest news indicates the engagements in Afghanistan are the most costly NATO has experienced.  Xinhua has just reported an unkown group has just destroyed more NATO fuel tankers in Pakistan's Northwest.

Last month the Los Angeles Times reported the Mahdi Army militia, under Muqtada al-Sadr, is now making a visible presence, a show of force once again on the streets of Sadr City on the eastern outskirts of Baghdad.  And more than a year ago Teheran enabled the Mahdi Army to form its newest unit the Promised Day Brigades with orders to only attack U.S. troops.  And now this new unit Kataib Hezbollah.  But they will not remain in action alone, Teheran will use them to not only being heavier fighting in Iraq but will also use the new escalation as its reason to enter the fighting in Iraq directly, as they will also in Afghanistan, since Teheran intends to reduce the chances of combined Allied operations against them.  And Teheran may not wait for an incident at sea to order them into action.  When President George W. Bush first began to warn several years ago about attacking as an "option on the table" someone from Iran's Defense Ministry responded by saying Iran will not let the U.S. attack first.

rfn=Teheran -  Hurriyet/AFP are reporting Shahram Amiri, who supposedly defected from Iran last June, has returned to Iran after he appeared at the Pakistan Embassy in Washingon on Tuesday.  Pakistan represents the Iranian Interests Section in Washington.  Officially Amiri, supposedly a nuclear scientist, was on a private pilgrimage to Saudi Arabia when he decided to defect but now that he has returned I suspect Amiri may have been used by Washington to send a last minute warning about full scale war unless Teheran begins to dismantle its nuclear/ballistic missile programs.  The timing is very important in this.  Just before (f)allout war this individual is sent back with a message to a government that wants to inflict as much damage on the West as possible, destroy the Pentagon bases in Iraq-Persian Gulf, trap the 12-13,000 European troops in south Lebanon and destroy the NATO bases in Afghanistan.

night watch:  rfn=PYONGYANG -  North Korea has abruptly called off a meeting with the U.S.-United Nations Command on the Korean Peninsula which was scheduled for today.  Swissinfo/Reuters reports a military representative for the North announced the decision was made for "administrative reasons."  The Pentagon stated Pyongyang suggested perhaps discussions could be held Thursday but Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman announced, "But, like I said, this is an unpredictable regime, I wouldn't put any money on that."  I suspect the Pentagon is arranging another "provocation" to be blamed on the North as was the March 26 sinking of the South Korea Corvette Cheonan.  Pyongyang denied it was them and that is definitely true since North Korea would have no advantage doing that and starting a war since that would abruptly end their exports of nuclear/ballistic missile technology to Iran-Syria and those exports have long been one of the foundations of Pyongyang's very elite budget.

Mysterious as North Korea's administration likes to pretend decisions are about to be made for them.  Next week the Foreign/Defense Minister of South Korea will meet U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Secretary of Defense Robert Gates next week in Seoul.  I suspect the next provocation, incident has already been planned and this meeting will coordinate the responses, both military and political, from Seoul-Washington.  Allied governments are creating excuses to end North Korea's exports and when Teheran sees one of its sources cut off Iran will probably increase war in Iraq-Afghanistan and prepare to enter both regional theatres directly.

North Korea's military may look powerful on paper but several years ago a high level North Korean defector stated, in a Wall Street Journal interview, the military had not been well maintained and a lot of troops are demoralized.  Pyongyang may not be able to hold out for a month.  And more than a year ago Beijing informed Pyongyang if/when war breaks out the North is completely on its own.  But Beijing however will help them pick up the pieces.

night watch:  rfn=BUJUMBURA -  "It is not the first time for them (Al Shabab) to send threat messages that they will attack Burundi and Uganda.  Some of our strategies to counter this include close collaboration between security forces, the administration and the population."  Xinhua reports that was the announcement from Colonel Gaspard Baratuza spokesman for the Burundian army after two horrific explosions in Kampala, Uganda that has killed, at latest count, 74 people who were watching the World Cup finals at the popular Ethiopia Village  restaurant and the Lugogo sport club.  Burundi-Uganda have contributed units in an effort to bring some stability to Somalia which has been without an effective central government since 1991.  The African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and two weeks ago Al Shahab warned from their base in the heavily damaged Somalia capital Mogadishu, they would attack the Embassies of both countries and the capital cities.  The Burundian army has been placed on high alert.

rfn=Kampala -  "Al-Shabab was behind the two blasts in Uganda.  We thank the mujahideen that carried out the attack.  We are sending a message to Uganda and Burundi if they do not take out their AMISOM troops from Somalia blasts will continue and it will happen."  Al Jazeera reports that was the claim of responsibility by Al Shabab spokesman Sheik Ali Mohamud Rage in Mogadishu speaking to reporters.  Al Jazeera correspondent Andrew Simmons reported, "Uganda was the first country to send peacekeepers to Somalia...There are moves to get more peacekeepers into Somalia from neighboring states."  Felix Kulaiye, spokesman for the Uganda army stated they recovered the severed head of one of the suicide attackers.  This is Teheran's timing as the explosions went off near the end of the final World Cup match in order to cause maximum civilian casualties.  Mike Hammer, U. S. National Security Council spokesman stated Washington is "ready to send any assistance requested by Uganda."

rfn=Mogadishu -  Swissinfo/Reuters reports Saturday Somalia President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed stated an increasing number of foreign Islamic fighters had increased the risk to regional security.  The Ethiopian themed restaurant may have been hit because Ethiopia invaded Somalia in 2006 and prevented an Islamic extremist government from taking over all of the capital.  Teheran may have had Kampala hit, not only because of the presence of troops with the African Union, but also since Uganda is the third largest economy in East Africa and has been attracting billions of dollars of investments into its oil sector and government debt markets.  Teheran never fails an opportunity to disrupt the economy of an enemy nation as Iran intends to become the main voice in global energy markets.  Teheran would love to have East African governments controlled by groups economically dependent on Teheran which is why Iran has invested so much effort in supporting Omar al Bashir in Khartoum.  One of the international community's responses to Bashir's continued destablizing influence is perhaps to arrange an assassination of him on a foreign state visit.  That would save the cost of arming more of the opposing groups within Sudan.

Speaking from Mogadishu an ecstatic Al Shabab commander Sheikh Yusuf Isse said, "Uganda is a major infidel country supporting the so-called government of Somalia.  We know Uganda is against Islam and so we are happy at what has happened in Kampala.  That is the best news we ever heard."  One of those killed was Nate Henn from Wilmington, Delaware working with the charity Invisible Children.  Uganda President Yoweri Museveni responded to the attack by saying, "This shows you the criminality and terror I have been talking about. If you want to fight you go and look for soldiers, don't bomb people watching football."  Teheran is uniting a lot of the international community.

rfn=Teheran -  The government in Teheran is now facing its most serious internal threat in thirty years as France24 reports the extremely powerful and influential commercial interests in the Teheran Bazaar have shut down and have entered a sixth day of strikes in opposition to a government proposal to increase taxes by seventy percent.  The proposal was first made two years ago but there were no attempts to enforce it until now.  The government has responded by reducing the tax to thirty percent but that still did not satisfy the bazaar which is the capital's historic center and the nation's commercial hub.  No government in Iran can survive without their support as this is obviously more of a threat than the massive popular street protests after last year's disputed election.

This is more than a tax dispute.  The bazaar is one of Iran's most established societies at least in equal importance to the military.  They come from the exact same level of society and I suspect the commercial interests are telling the military whatever you have prepared, whatever tactics, strategies you have, now is the time to use them, this year this summer.  Let the foreign policy run its course.  Some of the missiles will be accurate enough and some of the tactics will be effective enough so by this time next year the transition to peace will begin with no foreign troop presence or U.S.-NATO bases on Iran's borders after the smoke has cleared.  The bazaar is in no mood for eternal economic hardships.

night watch:  rfn=BEIRUT -  "They are preparing something for us but we are at the highest level of preparedness and calm.  We will stay as far as possible from the fiery verbal rivalry because we want the summer of the Lebanese to be complete and pass safely...We sense a suspicious international move, especially with the statements of the Israeli Chief of Staff.  All these atmospheres trying to pressure the resistance."  Asharq al-Awsat reports this part of a statement released by sources in Hezbollah but in reality this was probably written for Hezbollah by Teheran especially this next observation, "Exactly like the new French policy the behaviour of the French forces in UNIFIL shows that France has returned to the year 1965 to implement the policy of conspiring against the Arab homeland.  The recent incidents with the UNIFIL forces and the French call to change the rules of engagement that preceded them."

I don't the perspective of Hezbollah can be this historical and there are very long memories in Teheran which never welcomed the 12-13,000 European troops that arrived in south Lebanon right after the 2006 Rome Conference which was held after fighting had erupted between Israel/Hezbollah that summer.  UNIFIL is the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon and their new policy of confrontation matches Israel's preparations for full scale war into Lebanon-Syria which will probably occur right after a ship(s) headed for Iran are intercepted quite possibly during this summer.  And World War III, which I really believe began in 1994, becomes full scale fighting as Iran retaliates against the interception.

rfn=Bucharest -  B92 reports the Romania Foreign Minister Teodor Baconschi, during a visit to Chisinau, Moldova, announced Romania still refuses to recognize the independence of the south Serbia province of Kosovo.  February 2008 the Kosovo province, which is mostly ethnic Albanian, declared independence from Serbia and established a government in the city of Pristina.  The Romania government in Bucharest refused to recognize this further division of the former Yugoslavia and despite a new call by the European Parliament Thursday to recognize Kosovo, Bucharest refuses to do so.  The European Parliament wants all 27 European Union (EU) members to recognize Pristina but five EU member states have not-Cyprus-Slovakia-Greece-Romania-Spain and Athens went so far as to sign a security agreement with Serbia in 2006 as did Teheran in the same year.

rfn=Belgrade -  It is quite possible Greece-Iran may begin to soon activate the agreement due to the statements from Kosovo Albanian Interior Minister Bajram Rexhepi in which he openly called for Kosovo to send Special Police units to northern Kosovo to enforce Pristina's control over the Serbian communities there.  There have been recent violent incidents in the divided flashpoint city of Kosovska Mitrovica.  Serbia President Boris Tadic responded to Minister Rexhepi's Friday's threats by warning, "Temporary institutions in Kosovo will be the only ones responsible for the catastrophic consequences of the eventual implementation of these threats.  Warmongering statements and other provocations are endangering the fragile peace and stability in northern Kosovo."

Speaking to the Tanjug news service, the Serbia Minister for Kosovo, Goran Bogadnovic announced he is "very worried by such statements which represents the rattling of weapons."  Bogadnovic then referred to last Tuesday's emergency meeting in New York by the United Nations Security Council which acknowledged Serbia's position that is it the Kosovo Albanian government which is responsible for the latest violence.  But Bogadnovic also had to question the integrity of the EU police mission EULEX which is suspected of supporting Pristina's attempt to carry out its Northern Strategy, "To be clear they (UNSC) meant Pristina and those who encourage such acts.  At the same time EULEX, as a status neutral mission, must state clearly if Rexhepi's statements regarding an agreement with EULEX with which such a  move would be enabled were true.  If it's true, then the mission has violated its mandate and Serbia will have to act accordingly to this."  But the EU and its EULEX police mission in Kosovo pride themselves and their decisions which are shrouded in near secrecy in order to shift the blame somehow somewhere else.  In this case Belgrade as the EU, based in Brussels, has ever since they led the irresponsible decision to recognize the twisted boundary of Croatia in 1992 following Germany's lead which had done so in 1991. 

The division of Yugoslavia was intended by Brussels to be an arranged event mainly orchestrated by Vienna which used to rule the country during the Austria-Hungary Empire that was dissolved during the First World War 1914-18.  And this is the exact same area where the crisis began, June 1914 that led to the Guns of August that same year engulfing almost the entire continent for the next four years.  The NATO governments assumed this new division would be a fun crisis and a show off projection of power underestimated the impact of weapons dealers and Teheran's ability to enter the conflict as a way of keeping the Brussels on the defensive and silencing Vienna the headquarters of the UN International Atomic Energy Agency that has been investigating Iran's uranium enrichment.

night watch:  rfn=TEHERAN -  "The President doesn't like to hear bad news.  It appears the people around him don't tell him when there is something wrong.  But there are others raising alarms about the economy.  The government isn't panicking yet, but it should be."  INN reports that is the message government officials in Teheran have privately told the London Guardian.  I suspect President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is not told in order for him to maintain his buoyant posture in front of audiences in and outside Iran though the act has been more difficult inside Iran due to demonstrators complaining about the economy and it is not possible to arrest all of them.  The reason for the extremely serious concern among Teheran's leadership is the Fars News Agency acknowledged the nation's oil revenues have fallen $19 billion dollars during the twelve month period between February 2009-2010 and oil exports by 24 percent.  Eighty percent of Teheran's operational budget is financed by oil exports and  this comes amid reports Far East economies, Japan-China, have reduced their oil purchases in Iran and increased it with Russia. 

That is the reason IRNA reports today Iran Ambassador to Japan, Abbas Araghchi is attempting to explain, to convince Tokyo not to allow trade between the countries to fall below the $14 billion level in 2009.  But Tokyo and its industrial concerns are in no position to fool themselves or to take laughable, reassuring statements from Iran's President or Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, and the innocence of Iran's policies, seriously.  Japan's government realizes access to their economic lifeline to the Persian Gulf is about to become difficult and possibly at a moment's notice because any day there is going to be an interception of a ship(s) headed for Iran and with Teheran retaliating by seizing ships in the Persian Gulf/Gulf of Oman.  I doubt if Ambassador Araghchi was convincing.

rfn=South Lebanon -  "As you all know, some recent incidents have cast a shadow on the positive environment in which UNIFIL peacekeepers have been working in close coordination with the Lebanese army, for your safety and security."  Al Jazeera reports that was part of a letter written by the commander of UNIFIL (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon) Major-General Asarta Cuevas to the people in south Lebanon, nearly all of them staunch supporters of Hezbollah.  And it is quite possible most would see this attempt to reassure them as quite laughable especially since these 12-13,000 European troops in the south were always under orders to never make any attempt to intercept or interfere with the massive rearming of Hezbollah by Damascus-Teheran.  The rearming has been in deliberate violation of the United Nations resolution which calls for no rearming after the 2006 fighting between Israel/Hezbollah.  The European units arrived right after the Rome Conference held just after the conflict. 

Teheran openly opposed the conference and has since made Rome a major target of Iran's ballistic missiles because Teheran immediately realized what the conference represented, Rome is back as a military presence in the region.  And it is a presence supported by every Western government since it actually represents the West's attempt to restake its claim over Lebanon.  It also represents the West's concerns over stability in the entire Mediterranean and points East as opposed to concerns in Brussels which was designed to address issues on North Atlantic relations.  But for some reason Rome seems to have convinced itself that can be done without war breaking out again and for a while the UNIFIL military command even tried to believe it had great relations with Hezbollah.  But last year Hezbollah and its supporters caused violent confrontations with UNIFIL which immediately dispelled that operational myth as Teheran intends to destroy the entire Western military presence in the region and Hezbollah, with its 40,000 members, is one of Iran's main instruments to accomplish that objective.

night watch:  rfn=BASRA GOVERNORATE -  Military and civilian circles in the Basra Governorate have informed Asharq al-Awsat they fear Teheran may be planning a military occupation of Iraq oil fields around Basra to take advantage of the U.S. troop withdrawal now underway.  A military source explained, "While the U.S. forces are removing their military equipment in preparation for the final withdrawal of their combat troops by the end of next month, the existing Iraqi military divisions lack the ground support formations like artillery regiments and missile units as well as air support such as helicopters and fighter aircraft and this makes them easy targets in any military confrontation which is possible to avoid due to the prior knowledge of its results.  The operations to arm and equip the border police deployed near the border oilfields cannot stop the advance of a regular army if it wanted to occupy them because these are light weapons and equipment that are not fit for a military confrontation."

"Prior knowledge of its results" can be interpreted to mean Baghad has been fully aware, probably since the removal of Saddam Hussein in 2003, that Teheran would eventually seize the border oil fields around Basra and that is why Baghad never insisted on having a strong army.  This is a tacit agreement between Teheran-Baghad but this move could be what sets off full scale fighting between Allied governments and Iran.  Not only would seizure of these fields alarm Washington but also Kuwait-Saudi Arabia-Europe-Russia and Japan the industrialized nation which is most dependent on access to the oil in the Persian Gulf.  Or, Teheran could time this move when (f)all out fighting begins due to an incident at sea when a ship(s) headed for Iran are intercepted.

rfn=Antalya -  PressTV is reporting the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower is in the eastern Mediterranean after having left Antalya in south Turkey where it was greeted by hostile Turkish demonstrators.  The carrier left Thursday for an unknown destination but I suspect it will remain on station in the eastern Mediterranean to provide air support for the 12-13,000 European troops in south Lebanon serving under the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).  The troops were deployed as a result of the 2006 Rome Conference convened right after heavy fighting between Hamas-Hezbollah against Israel that summer.

rfn=Al-Khiam -  "From my standpoint it could be tomorrow, or next year.  I have to be ready at all times."  INN reports that was the policy statement by Israel Defense Force (IDF) Colonel Ronen Marli speaking during a briefing to military reporters as he presented a detailed map of Lebanon and markings of Hezbollah targets in the south.  The village shown, Colonel Marli said was typical of Hezbollah preparations, was the village of Al-Khiam located just a few miles from the Israeli towns of Kiryat Shmonah and Metulah.  The Colonel is the commander of the Western Brigade Galilee Formation and he displayed a detailed map of the area with Hezbollah targets already designated for destruction.  Marli then mentioned there are thousands of Hezbollah targets just like this in villages around Lebanon that have been used to store rockets with a range of 12-24 miles.  It has been estimated Hezbollah has the potential of firing 700 rockets a day but with Israel's air surveillance and air force plus rapid ground advances I will be surprised if Hezbollah will be able to fire a hundred a day at the beginning of combat and less each day afterward.  Marli even mentioned the IDF knows the name of the Iranian officer in charge of its Hezbollah command based in Beirut, Hussein Mahadawi.

rfn=Damascus -  Another early target, on the first day of hostilities, will be the rocket factory in Syria at an undisclosed location, but I doubt if it is a secret to Jerusalem.  Haaretz report, according to the French newsletter Intelligence Online, Teheran financed the joint Iran-Syria venture for the manufacturing of the M-600 rocket which has a range of 150-180 miles (250-300 km).  The Iranians provided the assembly line, technology and war doctrine.  Half of the production is to go to Hezbollah.  This is not unlike the Iran-Syria joint venture on the plutonium weapons site in Syria, staffed with North Korean technicians, destroyed by the Israel Air Force September 6, 2007.

rfn=Beirut -  IRNA reports Alaeddin Boroujerdi, Chairman of Iran Majlis (Parliament) National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, took the time during his attendance at the funeral procession in Beirut, to invite Christian Nationalist leader General Michel Aoun to Teheran.  The funeral was for Shia Grand Ayatollah Fadlallah, 75, who died Friday after being submitted to a Beirut hospital for internal bleeding.  General Michel Aoun used to support France's influence in Lebanon but has shifted his support to Iran due to Paris insisting Lebanon owes France an enormous debt during the fifteen year Lebanon civil war 1975-90.  Paris played a leading role in starting the war by using their militia contacts in Lebanon the Maronite Catholics.  France's influence led to the creation of Lebanon in 1943 out of part of Syria which is why Damascus only during the past year has formally established relations with Beirut since most of the Lebanese government is now within the sphere of influence of Teheran.

night watch:  rfn=SIALKOT -  "We were facing unprovoked firing from the Pakistani side for the last two days resulting in the deaths of two of our men.  We were forced to retaliate.  The firing was precise, but at this stage we cannot say for sure who fired at us."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the announcement by a senior India border official K. Srinivasan on the third cross border fire exchange between Pakistan Rangers and India Border Security Forces (BSF) for the past two weeks.  But as expected Pakistan Rangers spokesman, Nadeem Raza recited a different account, "First they fired yesterday morning and then again in the evening and the firing continued sporadically throughout the night until Wednesday morning.  One of our soldiers and several villagers have been wounded in the Indian firing."  Many of the Pakistan Rangers fire takes place during attempts by infiltration teams to penetrate into India's part of Kashmir and attack what Islamabad refers to as "occupation troops" since Kashmir is majority Muslim.  This is in support of the Islamic uprising in Kashmir since November 1989 which has killed nearly 50,000 people and right now most of Kashmir is under a curfew to prevent more mass protests against Indian police units firing on demonstrators with sixteen killed since June.

But this time the exchange of fire took place further south near Sialkot just north of Lahore in the Punjab.  Crossborder firings began here last year and this is just south of the 450 mile Line of Control (LoC) which demarcates Jammu-Kashmir between Pakistan/India.  This time Indian troops responded with automatic weapons/mortar fire which prompted this warning from the Director-General of the Pakistan Rangers Major-General Yaqub Khan, "In future, a strong reply will be given by Rangers and loss of civilian lives and property will not be tolerated at any cost."  That "strong reply" is intended to force Delhi to use its hot pursuit policy and attack the Islamic militant training bases inside Pakistan and when that happens the fourth major war between the two, since their combative independence in 1947, will be underway.

rfn=Beijing -  The best time for war to begin on the sub-continent is September at the beiginning of the dry season at the end of the monsoon and the dry season runs through April.  But the fourth war will not remain between Islamabad/Delhi because two other governments Iran-China are poised to enter the conflict in support of Pakistan as a chance to control the resources and economy of the Indian sub-continent.  In 2007 Teheran accepted the offensive Action Plan of Pakistan President-General Pervez Musharraf and in 2006 China's Central Government revived its claim over the northeast India state of Arunachal Pradesh.  October 1962, the dry season that year, Beijing invaded Arunachal Pradesh for one month as fighting extended south into Assam state bordering the Bay of Bengal.   And today Dawn/CCTV reports Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari was welcomed Wednesday into the Great Hall of the People in Beijing by China President Hu Jinato the first day of a six day visit as the two governments continue to strengthen their relations which reach back to 1951.

President Jintao welcomed President Zardari with the words, "To strengthen Sino-Pakistan anti-terrorism cooperation and strike at terrorism, separatism and religious extremism..."  Beijing calls those the "three forces" which threaten both countries and acts as if that is the basis of their massive military cooperation.  But in strategic reality Beijing has been the main supporter of Iran-Pakistan's nuclear/ballistic missile programs to weaken three of China's international rivals, the West-India-Russia, reflecting a historical hatred by Beijing against all three, a cold, calculating hatred even more extreme than what emanates out of Teheran.  Currently both countries have units in China practicing combined operations, "Friendship-2010 in China's northwest Ningxia Hui autonomous region, as Zardari has already met with executives from NORINCO China's leading arms manufacturer. 

Xinhua reports there are currently more than 120 Chinese firms doing business in Pakistan involved in projects in energy exploration, infrastructure and mining.  Pakistan's delegation hopes to direct more Chinese investment into the energy sectors since parts of Pakistan are without electricity for 18 hours every day.  Beijing is obviously willing to face losing diplomatic relations with the West-Russia-Japan as a result of China's planned invasion, quite possibly again in October.  China's Central Government has probably calculated the economic benefits of controlling northeast India are greater than loss of diplomatic relations.

rfn=Dubai -  Ynet reports the Washington Times recorded the following statements made by Yousef al-Otaiba UAE Ambassador to Washington after an interview with the Atlantic at the Aspen Ideas Festival on the regional impact of an attack on Iran , "I think it is a cost-benefit analysis.  I think despite the large amount of trade we do with Iran, which is close to $12 billion...there will be consequences, there will be backlash and there will be problems with people protesting and rioting and very unhappy that there is an outside force attacking a Muslim country, that is going to happen no matter what.  If you are asking me 'Am I willing to live with that versus living with a nuclear Iran?' my answer is still the same; 'We cannot live with a nuclear Iran.'  I am willing to absorb what takes place at the expense of the security of the UAE."  The Times reports that view reflects the same position Arab diplomats have privately.  Teheran's irresponsible support of al-Qaeda units in Yemen and threatening to attack international shipping in the Persian Gulf are the reasons Arab governments do not support Iran's nuclear programs and regional policy.

rfn=London -  Hurriyet reports Turkey Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu left Ankara Wednesday for a Thursday meeting with Britain's new administration under Prime Minister David Cameron.  Supposedly this is just to discuss Cyprus but I can't believe that given Ankara's close strategic relations with Teheran which implies military cooperation.

night watch:  rfn=RAMALLAH -  "The information is totally false.  We don't know what they are talking about when they say progress.  We are not aware of any progress and we have not been informed of any progress.  They are trying to create a positive atmosphere to help make Netanyahu's visit to the U.S. successful."  Asharq al-Awsat/AFP report that was the announcement by a skeptical official with the Palestinian Authority speaking from their capital Ramallah in the West Bank as Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu arrives in Washington today.  The unnamed official is quite right, there is no agreement on the horizon between Jerusalem/Ramallah on the Palestinian issue only a mutual understanding of joint cooperation against Hamas-Hezbollah-Damascus-Teheran.  The Palestinian Authority, under President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, realize they will benefit from the destruction of Hamas and will become once again the main Palestinian authority in the West Bank-Gaza after the war.

The challenge for them is to survive the war and cooperating with the Allies should help them do so.  And this is probably being discussed in Ramallah as INN reports three U.S. Senators, John McCain, Joseph Lieberman and Lindsey Graham have been conducting a four day fact-finding tour of the region and met in Ramallah with President Abbas and Prime Minister Fayyad.  Wednesday the Senators will meet Israel Defense Minister Ehud Barak.  Concerning the status of Jerusalem Senator Graham stated earlier this year at a speech in front of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), "Jerusalem is not a settlement.  No government in Israel will ever look at Jerusalem as a settlement.  No government in the United States should ever look at Jerusalem as a settlement.  It is the undivided capital of the State of Israel.  It is the eternal home of the Jewish faith.  And now it is time to move on to other issues."

rfn=Washington -  The "other issue" overshadowing all others is of course the potential accuracy and range of Iran's ballistic missiles some of which are armed with nuclear warheads.  Last summer Israel Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon warned, over Fox News, Iran had missiles which can reach the U.S. East Coast.  That became possible as a result of Iran's satellite tests which Moscow had been warning, for more than a year, Teheran was using the tests to produce ballistic missiles of very long range.  I suspect all Allied governments are aware of this but do not wish to say so publicly.  As this site has stated repeatedly Teheran's foreign policy is not designed to try and control the salt in the Dead Sea but to become the main presence in global energy markets and Israel is completely unimportant economically.  What Iran's leadership had President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad say about Israel was just a destraction, a publicity smokescreen but Israel is a base that can be used for attacks on Iran and to intercept some of Iran's missiles.

Last year the Pentagon completed integrating its missile interception systems with Israel's.  And with Teheran, welcoming the constant deterioration of relations with the West, is probably the reason Hurriyet/AFP is reporting Israel Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu will receive a warm red carpet welcome on his arrival in Washington today, quite different from his almost secret arrival incognito just four months ago in March.  Then, Prime Minister Netanyahu was almost persona non grata but that was before Teheran's response to the United Nations Security Council June 9 sanctions vote that called for interception of ships headed for Iran.  Teheran has since constantly warned it will do the same.  After Netanyahu meets with President Barack Obama the two will have a working lunch with Vice-President Joseph Biden and their respective delegations.  Wednesday Netanyahu goes to New York to meet United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.

rfn=Pristina -  B92 reports Kosovo Albanian Interior Minister Bajram Rexhepi has announced his government in Pristina is "determined to continue the implementation of their plan for the north, despite obstructions and directives from Belgrade to prevent the implementation of the north of Kosovo into the central functions of the Kosovo government."  The Kosovo provincial officials in southern Serbia, ethnic Albanian, declared independence from Belgrade February 2008 with the suppport of most governments in the Brussels based European Union (EU)-NATO and this Northern Strategy for Pristina to control the northern part of the province, which is largely Serbian, is actually the plan devised by EU official Pieter Fieth.

The scheme is resolutely opposed by the Serbia government in Belgrade and attempts to enforce it has caused two violent incidents, Friday-Monday, in the divided city of Kosovska Mitrovica.  The city's District Chief Radenko Nedeljkovic warned, "I still strongly condemn EULEX police for taking the side of the Albanian community in the past days and not providing peace and security in northern Mitrovica and allowing the office to open."  EULEX is the police unit representing the European Union and they, along with NATO-KFOR and Kosovo Police Service (KPS) have given tacit approval for the Albanian government in Pristina to open an office in Kosovska Mitrovica in an attempt to enforce its control over the northern part of the province.  Other and quite possibly more serious incidents are coming.

rfn=New York -  B92 reports in New York Serbia President Boris Tadic on Tuesday addressed an Extraordinary Session of the UN Security Council with this warning, Serbia "will have no choice but to reassess its relations with the international presence in Kosovo and Metohija unless the international factors deny further support to Pristina's destabilizing acts."  But Brussels and unnamed officials are committed to their Northern Strategy which is on the brink of setting off a new wave of war across the former Yugoslavia.  Serbia has been rearmed by Russia since NATO's 78 day air campaign in 1999 and in 2006 Serbia signed security agreements with Greece-Iran.  Despite the economic crisis in Greece it has one of the largest military budgets in all of Europe.  And Teheran would welcome war in this regional theatre becuase they can use it to silence Vienna and end the investigation into Iran's uranium enrichment by the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency based there.

night watch:  rfn=TEHERAN -  "Since last week, (Thursday) our planes have been refused fuel at airports in Britain, Germany and UAE because of the sanctions imposed by America."  Haaretz/Reuters report that was the announcement by Mehdi Aliyari Secretary of Iranian Airlines Union speaking through ISNA.  "Iran will do the same to ships and planes of these countries that cause problems for us."  But the governments of Germany-UAE deny any such policy is in place.  This could mean Teheran is again creating reasons to attack the West and governments around Iran that support the June 9 sanctions approved by the United Nations Security Council and one of those countries is the UAE.  Both the European Union and Washington applied further sanctions since June 9 and now Teheran seems to be ready for a series of incidents leading to more of a crisis then to war.  At first it seemed the incident could take place after ships headed for Iran would be intercepted at sea as the June 9 sanctions call for but now it could be the result of Teheran retaliating against a Western-UAE airline.

rfn=Teheran -  Before Iran launches its ballistic missiles at the West it will first increase the fighting in Afghanistan against the NATO units/bases there.  IRNA reports Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the head of the Majlis (Parliament) National Security and Foreign Policy Commission on Monday received the Afghanistan Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs Mohamed Aklil Hakimi and the two discussed regional affairs.  I suspect Hakimi was informed about Teheran's timetable for increased attacks against NATO this month as Iran accuses the West of causing instability on Iran's border therefore justifying Iran's direct entry into the war.

rfn=FORWARD OPERATING BASE COBRA -  "By all their activity here they're actually drawing us here, and this is where we're going to fight them so people don't have to fight them in Baghdad."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the statement from U.S. Army Major Robert Halvorson speaking from Forward Operating Base Cobra near Checkpoint Three which still receives motar fire and that has caused the Pentagon to reinforce its position in Diyala province in Iraq on Iran's border.  Diyala is eighty miles northeast of Baghdad and is the eastern extension of a northern arc of instability which runs from here through Kirkuk in Nineveh province in the north to the west to Syria's border as this area remains the most violent in Iraq.  It is not surprising this is along the borders of two countries working most closely with Iran, Turkey-Syria.  Though the Pentagon continues to close bases and withdraw troops and will officially end combat operations by September 1, 50,000 troops will remain for "stability operations" and supposedly in cooperation with Iraq police-army units.

But on a Blackhawk flight over Diyala, Division North Commander Major-General Tony Cucolo commented, "We take down a cell, but on a smaller, less capable level it reforms."  General Cucolo then mentioned the Iraq Army is not ready to take over the seucrity operations "as they are."  Trust between the U.S/Iraq Army is low and lack of cooperation is put down to "boredom" by the Iraq units which do not clear towns, villages of Islamic fighters.  I don't think boredom is the reason, just a conscious, unofficial decision on the part of the Iraq Army and Baghdad to distance itself from full cooperation with Washington.  But I have written before I suspected Teheran-Baghad had assigned the Iraq Army and police the role of drawing U.S. troops into heavy combat and a case like that may have happened June 11 when U.S. troops were lured away from their Stryker vehicles by reports of a large arms cache in the densely populated town of Jalwala.  A suicide bomber detonated a car bomb so "catastrophic" it killed two soldiers.

Major Halvorson wrote the official Army report on the attack but details are still regarded as "hazy".  It is that kind of confusion Teheran is creating and prepared to take advangtage of in places like Jalawala just twenty miles from Iran's border.  Earlier this year Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ordered all foreign forces out of the region and one of Iran's Generals warned not one U.S. soldier will leave the region alive when relations become worse.

rfn=Elyakim -  Israeli sources have informed PressTV/Haaertz, Israel Defense Force (IDF) units have begun training missions in northern Israel to prepare for operations in south Lebanon.  The training is taking place at the Elyakim base near Haifa, exercises against "rocket attacks by Hezbollah."  The base contains simulated minefields and camouflaged bunkers and the troops practice bypassing these obstacles and attack the rocket sites.  From here the units are to be flown by helicopter to the Golan Heights which is can be used as a staging area for operations in south Lebanon and is just forty miles from Damascus.  IDF units can penetrate and come between any possible cooperation between Hezbollah-Syria.

rfn=Kosovska Mitrovica -  "The incident occurred at 8:20 am when Petar Miletic was leaving his home in northern Mitrovica to go to work in Pristina."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the announcement by Deputy Regional Police Chief Ergin Medic after another violent incident in the divided city of Kosovska Mitrovica in northern Kosovo the province in southern Serbia that declared independence in February 2008.  B92 reports Besim Hoti, spokesman for the Kosovo Police Service (KPS), stated Miletic was shot four times in the hallway of his apartment building and his injuries are not serious.  Miletic is one of ten Serbs who serve in the 120 seat Parliament of the Kosovo Albanian government in Pristina.  Some suspect since Miletic and his Liberal Party have been willing to work with Kosovo is the reason for him being targeted.

Independent Liberal Pary President Slobodan Petrovic warned it is a "fact that tension has been increasing in the north recently" and that was "something that was expected by the people who live in Kosovo."  But Petrovic added they did not expect it to happen in such a "brutal" way.  On Friday a demonstration of a thousand Serbs in the northern part of Kosovska Mitrovica was hit by a grenade attack, an attack which has not been solved and the gunmen today, though described, still remains unknown.  In Belgrade, the Kosovo Minister for the Serbia government, Goran Bogdanovic stated the purpose of this latest incident was to "change the reality in northern Kosovo."  The north is still primarily Serbian and they refuse to acknowledge the authority of the Albanian government in Pristina.  Earlier this year it was revealed the European Union official for Kosovo Pieter Fieth had concocted a suspicious "Northern Strategy" that would enable the Albanian administration to enforce its rule in the north.

But Belgrade warned it would not be possible to implement that strategy peacefully.  Now we have these two attacks which took place right after Iran Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki met with the Serbia Ambassador to Teheran.  In 2006 Belgrade signed security agreements with Teheran-Athens and Serbia has been rearmed by Russia since the 1999 air campaign of NATO which encouraged the Albanian community in Kosovo to plan on their independence.  But since 1992 Teheran has realized war in this regional theatre can also be used against the West to reduce its influence in international relations.  Fighting here can also be used to silence Vienna the headquarters of the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency which has been investigating Iran's uranium enrichment to weapons grade levels.  1992 was the year Teheran established full relations with every government in the former Yugoslavia including Croatia.  Teheran then announced, "Croatia is our entry into Central Europe."

night watch:  rfn=GULF OF ADEN -  "We are currently patrolling the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, monitoring the movements of foreign forces in the air, sea and under the surface."  PressTV reports that was the policy statement of Iran Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari, commander of the Naval forces of Iran's Army, quoted by Fars News agency.  I suspect this is a warning Teheran is now in a position to respond, militarily, to any interception of ships heading for Iran.  Admiral Sayyari then added, "We are responsible for providing full security for our trading vessels in territorial waters and the Gulf of Aden."  Teheran has been warning, ever since the recent sanctions approved by the United Nations Security Council June 9, that called for interception of ships at sea headed for Iran, that Teheran will respond in kind to any Allied action.

And this past week Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced there will be no negotiations with the West until after August 11.  It is quite possible Iran's leadership expects a crisis to begin before then due to an incident at sea, in other words full scale fighting before the end of August that will revolve around an attempt to enforce the sanctions regime and Teheran responds in the name of its sovereignty.  But it will be an enormous mistake for Teheran to attack ships in the Persian Gulf/Sea of Oman since that would only result in creating more enemies, most notably Japan-Saudi Arabia.  Japan needs access to Persian Gulf oil more than any other industrialized economy and attacks on international shipping would only confirm Riyadh's position that Iran's regional-international policies have gotten out of control.

The House of Saud is fully aware Teheran could make enough of a military statement simply by increasing the war in Iraq-Afghanistan, by having attacks resume against Israel and have the 12-13,000 European troops in south Lebanon serving with UNIFIL also coming under attack.  But there are those in Teheran who want to show off what Iran can now do and one of the two main objectives is for Iran to become the main voice in the world's energy markets.  The other is to destroy the West's millitary presence in the region.  If Teheran concentrated on only attacking the West militarily they would have retained the support of every Muslim government with the exception of Egypt.

night watch:  rfn=TABRIZ -  "All the stages of the fighter's repair and modernization programs were conducted by Iranian engineers."  PressTV/IRIB report that was the announcement by Brigadier General Hassan Shah-Safi the head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF) as a Mig-29, which had been grounded for years, took off from an air base outside Tabriz in northwestern Iran.  General Shah-Safi stated for the past several years Iran's military has been able to upgrade and provide spare parts for the nation's aircraft.  This comes right after Iran positioned more troops in its northwest near the Azerbaijan border across from U.S. units that are reported being there.

rfn=Qixtonxia -  http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/video/2010-07/02/c_13381215.htm  The news link from Xinhua/CCTV covers the joint military exercises now underway by units from Pakistan-China.  Pakistan Tribune reports both countries will provide troops from their Special Services Group and will concentrate on coordination of troops on the sub unit level.  There will be mountain drills and programs designed to increase rapport among the command and field level of both militaries.  The YOUYI-III (Friendship) exercises began yesterday and will end July 7.  The real purpose of these combined maneuvers is because both Islamabad/Beijing have territorial disputes with India and that is why China established strategic relations with Pakistan in 1951.  Beijing revived its claim over the northeast India state of Arunachal Pradesh in 2006 which China invaded for one month in October 1962 during the dry season with the fighting extending south into Assam state bordering the Bay of Bengal.  The dry season begins in September and that is when I expect full scale war to begin and that Beijing is prepared to end relations with most countries as it attempts to conquer northeast India including Assam state.

Delhi is aware of these preparations and last year positioned two more divisions in its northeast and constructed more airstrips.  And India's leading army General last year announced India was prepared for war simultaneously with Pakistan-China.  Teheran is also poised to enter the conflict having received the Action Plan of Pakistan General Pervez Musharraf in Feb. 2007.

rfn=Ilbar River -  B92 reports at 10:00 CET Friday an explosive device was thrown at a gathering of a thousand Serbian demonstraters in the Bosnjaska Mahala district of the divided city of Kosovska Mitrovica in the northern part of Serbia's Kosovo province, which killed one man, a doctor and wounded six women and five men.  Helicopters from NATO's KFOR forces are now flying overhead in the tense city which has witnessed repeated ethnic violence for the past several years that became more intense when the Serbia province of Kosovo declared independence February 2008.  The Serbians were protesting an attempt by the Kosovo administration to open an office in Kosovska Mitrovica which an Albanian language paper Zeri reported was the "first step to integrate the region" in other words for the Albanian Kosovo leadership in Pristina to exercise their control over the northern part of the province which is majority Serbian.

In Belgrade Serbia President Boris Tadic convened a special session of the Serbian Council for National Security which released this statement accusing European Union (EU) Special Representative for Kosovo Pieter Fieth, "By supporting and implementing an attempt to open the office of the temporary (Kosovo Albanian government) institutions, Fieth has directly reached for methods that are contrary to policies and the position of the EU and bears objective responsibility for all the consequences of today's tragic event."  Speaking at a joint press conference with Malta Foreign Minister Tonio Borg, Serbia Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic responded, "At this point, I can only say that we are extremely concerned about the obvious attempt to take unilateral steps in northern Kosovo.  Unfortunately, the events in Kosvoska Mitrovica this morning confirms our fears.  We will do everything to pacifiy the situation, but we will not allow ourselves to be provoked."  The attempt by Pristina to open an office in Kosvoska Mitrovica is part of the suspicious Northern Strategy of European Union official Pieter Fieth who also heads the International Civilian Office based in Brussels. 

Belgrade warned earlier this year,when word got out about the scheme, it would not be possible for Brussels-Pristina to enforce the Northern Strategy peacefully.  Serbia has been rearmed by Russia since NATO's seventy-eight day air campaign in 1999 and in 2006 Belgrade signed security agreements with Athens-Teheran.  Iran is especially eager to see fighting resume in this regional theatre in order to not only keep the West busy but to also silence Vienna the headquarters of the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency which has been investigating Iran's uranium enrichment.  I would not be surprised if someone working with Teheran threw the grenade.  Other attacks may soon follow designed to set off a chain reaction of incidents and armed responses.

night watch:  rfn=KIEV -  "We don't think that anybody should have any concerns.  To the extent that anyone has any concerns about our Russia policy we're happy to discuss it with them."  Hurriyet/AFP reports that was the policy announcement by Phil Gordon U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs speaking the day before Secretary of State Hillary Clinton begins a three day visit to Poland-Ukraine and the Caucasus.  Secretary Clinton's itinerary has been arranged by the Kissinger-Primakov Strategic Working Group (SWG) established in 2007 with the arrival of Dr. Henry Kissinger, former U.S. Secretary of State into Moscow to work with former Russia Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov.  Resource security is their priority and no Allied government is in a better position to sustain an air offensive against Iran than Russia.  Mineral exports to the West have been the foundation of Russia's economy for more than a century and Teheran has been the main threat to those exports since war in the North Caucasus began in 1994.

But close, working strategic relations with governments in Eastern Europe-Caucasus will also be crucial which is why Secretary Clinton will not only begin her trip in Kiev but will inaugurate the U.S.-Ukraine Strategic Partnership Commission with Ukraine President Viktor Yanukovych and Foreign Minister Kostyantyn Gryshchenko.  This commission will probably remain operational after the war for at least five years as the international situation re-stabilizes.  From Kiev Clinton will go to Krakow, Poland to meet Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski.  The government in Warsaw has been at the center of the Allies missile interception preparations as is the case with the Azerbaijan government in Baku on Iran's border.  There have even been recent reports of U.S. units in Azerbaijan.  Clinton will also visit the Armenia government in Yerevan wedged between Turkey-Iran and the Secretary will then say goodbye to Mikhail Saakashvili in the Georgia capital Tbilisi. 

Teheran has increased its relations with Georgia as a continuation of its policy of disrupting Russia's ability to control the region's resources and its exports to industrial concerns in the West as Teheran is fully aware of the importance of this region to world energy markets.  Secretary Clinton's visit, as was the recent summit between U.S. President Barak Obama and Russia President Dmitry Medvedev in Washington, is designed to set Russia up as the main victor in World War III and establish a strategic partnership with Muslim governments, including with Teheran after the war.  The West's vehicle to this region is becoming through Moscow.  But for right now the SWG will direct Iran's attention north which may reduce some of Iran's offensive plans against the West.

rfn=Teheran -  "Undoubtedly, such a confrontational approach may leave dire consequences in the relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the European Union."  Swissinfo/Reuters reports that was part of an angry response by Iran Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki at a news conference in Teheran as Iran continues to make its feelings known as a result of the latest sanctions voted by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) June 9 and by the 27 member European Union (EU) since then.  Foreign Minister Mottaki said their decision "will definitely cause far greater losses for the European Union itself rather than for the Islamic Republic of Iran as this is amply demonstrated in all previous statistics."  Diplomatic masques are obviously coming off as the news photos showed the hatred in Mottaki's expression.  He also wrote angry letters to the twelve governments that voted for the sanctions describing the vote as a "dark spot in the history of bilateral relations." 

Teheran has planned a military offensive as a follow up to its displeasure and this is why Iran's response to any Russian offensive is purely defensive.  I will be surprised if any of Iran's ballistic missiles will be targeted away from Europe and fired at Moscow no matter how many attacks Moscow and the Allies stage from Eastern Europe-Russia.  The West has always been Teheran's main target due to Western Europe's long history of involvement in the region and their prominence in the world's energy makets, a prominence Teheran intends to destroy.

rfn=Damascus -  Ynet News reports the Wall Street Journal mentioned in mid-2009 Iran supplied Syria with and advanced early warning radar system which could enable Damascus to provide Teheran with information on any air attack from Israel.  And it could also enable Hezbollah to fire its newest anti-aircraft missiles more accurately at Israel's warplanes.  Israel officials stated they kept this as a secret last year in order not to increase tensions on its northern front facing Lebanon-Syria.  But these systems locations are known and will be the first targets destroyed when the regional war expands quite possibly this month.

night watch:  rfn=TEHERAN -  "We are postponing the talks because of the bad behaviour and the adoption of the new resolution in the Security Council.  This is a penalty, so that they are disciplined to learn the way of talking to other nations."  Aharq al-Awsat/AFP report that was the veiled threat by Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Monday as he indicated perhaps Teheran will be willing to resume negotiations at the end of the Iranian month of Mordad-August to the rest of the world.  But Iran's military preparations and maneuvers for the past several years indicate Teheran has more responses (penalties) in mind than the occasional suspension of the deceptive negotiations Iran has conducted with the United Nations-Russia-West-Japan for nearly ten years.  The real response of Iran's leadership is through events-war, actually an increase in the wars already in progress.

What this site has attempted to do was to guess Teheran's timetable and occasionally Iran's government provides a clue.  The latest could be President Ahmadinejad now announcing a suspension of negotiations for the next two months which means the expanded regional war Iran has planned is about to begin which is why this site mentioned yesterday the arrival of the point man of Teheran's foreign policy in Damascus, Majlis (Parliament) Speaker Ali Larijani.  Since 2004 Teheran has used Damascus, and its establishment's obsession with the Golan Heights, as its main center of regional war planning using governments and groups (Hamas-Hezbollah) controlled by Teheran.  And today Ynet News reported Hezbollah Deputy Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem released this conflicting statement during an interview with al-Manar Television, "No new war is expected with Israel" BUT Hezbollah is prepared and "acting as if it break out tomorrow."

rfn=Jerusalem -  "What better way to divert attention from a sanctions regime than by starting another Middle East war?"  Ynet News reports that was the observation from Israel Ambassador to Washington Michael Oren, speaking from experience.  His Excellency remembers, vividly, the way the increased fighting in 2006, between Hamas-Hezbollah/Israel instantly diverted the world's attention from Iran's nuclear weapons/ballistic missile production.  And that quite possibly Teheran has completed preparations for its response this time, this diversionary war, and not mostly at Israel but against the governments that lead the sanctions vote June 9 at the United Nations Security Council, the U.S.-Britain-France-Germany and they all have units in either Iraq-Afghanistan-South Lebanon plus ships and bases in the Persian Gulf-Mediterranean.

rfn=Riyadh -  "Saudi Arabia is not convinced that the economic sanctions on Iran will bear fruits, and it believes the alternative measures available to the Obama Administration must be examined, since there is no guarantee that the current policies will stop Teheran from moving forward with its nuclear program."  Ynet News reports that was a source in Washington speaking after the summit meeting at the White House between Saudi Arabia King Abdullah and President Barack Obama.  Teheran lost Riyadh by supporting the current al-Qaeda units in Yemen which threaten to destabilize Saudi Arabia and by planning to attack international shipping in the Persian Gulf/Sea of Oman.  Riyadh realizes Teheran's regional policy is completely out of control.  This is not surprising and has been the pattern of behavior by Teheran since 1979. 

There are constant indications and examples Iran's government will unleash military action and not always able to control it.  The earliest example was during the eight year Iran-Iraq War 1980-88.  Both governments attacked shipping in the Gulf and at the time Iran could only use speedboats equipped with a heavy machine gun.  The idea was to attack ships headed for Iraq but quite often the units doing so would become so out of control or confused they would also attack ships headed for Iran.  Riyadh-Washington-Jerusalem are aware that tendency to chaos has not ended and is something Teheran is quite proud of.  Chaos which they divine as a unifying influence.  Now Teheran has speed boats equipped with missiles-torpedoes which is why serious military planning has been taking place between Washington-Jerusalem-Riyadh against what the Arab world has historically called the "Demon of the Gulf".

night watch:  rfn=KABUL INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT -  "We do not even know about it.  We don't know where it is, why it is leaving or where it is going."  The Wall Street Journal reports that was the admission by Afghanistan Finance Minister Omar Zakhilwal who was interviewed in the revealing article by Matthew Rosenberg on the massive flight of capital out of Afghanistan for the past three years.  It seems to be known and even officially sanctioned by the government as large amounts of cash are openly declared by couriers who must record their own names and the origin of money they are transferring.  The system used is the centuries old hawala currency service common in every Muslim country which in effect serves as their vehicle for international transactions-private money transfers.  A senior U.S. official admitted there are boxes of cash loaded onto the backs of airplanes, the eight daily flights from Kabul to Dubai where wealthy Afghans have longed based their finances and that is where you have the decision making behind the capital flight.  And the courier does not even have to record the name of the actual sender of the money.  After his deposit at the hawala in Afghanistan he then receives a numeric code-password which he will use at the Dubai hawala and the hawala dealers in the network settle among themselves. 

The fees charged for this service are only $150 for every$100,000 much less than standard banks.  Estimates run as high as $10 million a day on the amount of money leaving the country and that is only what is officially declared the real amount is much higher especially since officials and dignitaries at the VIP lounge are never searched and are driven straight up to their planes.  That comes to $3.65 billion per annum, known, from country with only a $13.5 billion annual Gross Domestic Product.  This is why corruption has replaced the drug, opium production distribution as the number one problem and no senior Afghan official will ever seriously support NATO's effort to end the situation which is highly profitable for society's elite.  The same people every NATO government has been entertaining for the past nine years are taking the enormous aid money and sending it out of the country and from Dubai it goes to the U.S.-Europe.  Last year alone the Brussels based alliance committed $14 billion dollars but with this account it leaves the country soon after it arrives.

It is not only U.S. dollars leaving, but also Saudi riyals, Pakistan rupees, Norwegian kroners, German deutsche marks which, even though they are outdated can be redeemed for euros and I would not be surprised if Turkish liras are also leaving as this international capital flight is just a minute indication we have been living in a time of unparalled corruption as graft has become the most profitable institution in Afghanistan if not in the world.  Eighty to ninety percent of the country's financial transactions are based on the hawalas as hundreds of millions, if not billions, are also sent to Iran-Pakistan destined for the hawala branches there.  All of the transactions take only minutes, hours at the most instead of days to complete.  The Chief Customs official at Kabul International is General M. Asif Jabar Khail and he mentioned a common occurrence last year when his men found a "pile of millions" of dollars "all undeclared" and tried to stop it being put on a flight to Dubai.  But "there was a lot of pressure from my higher ups...It came from very, very senior people.  They told me there was an arrangement with the Central Bank and told me to let it go."  If there is any consolation, the hawalas are used to send some of the money back to Afghanistan

rfn=Damascus -  IRNA reports Iran Majlis (Parliament) Speaker Ali Larijani left Teheran for Damascus Monday to attend a Conference on Palestine by the Organization of Islamic Countries.  Speaker Larijani will meet the Syria Parliament Speaker Mahmoud al-Abrash and other senior Syrian officials.  Accompanying Larijani are Iranian lawmakers Kazem Jalali, Fatemeh Rahbar, Mostafa Tabatabaei and Gholamreza Karami.  Damascus has been the center of Teheran's regional war planning ever since the removal of Saddam Hussein in Baghdad in 2003.  The formation of the Iran-Syria Axis was officially stated by then Iran President Mohammad Khatami during is trip to Damascus in 2004 and a combined military command was established in June 2006 just before Teheran had Hamas conduct its ambush in late June followed by a Hezbollah attack in mid-July which began heavier fighting against Israel for a month.  The Iran-Syria Axis has enabled Hamas to sustain its rocket fire since 2006 until Israel's highly successful Operation Cast Lead into Gaza Dec. 2008-Jan. 2009. 

But for Teheran, an even greater success was Ankara's hated response to Jerusalem since the offensive which has now placed Turkey firmly in the camp of those supporting any group opposed to Israel.  Since Operation Cast Lead Turkey has conducted maneuvers with Syria and although Turkish troops will not become directly involved in the fighting Ankara may have agreed to send supplies/equipment to Syria.  It is the Ankara addition to the Axis, and how to use Turkey, that may be the main purpose to Larijani's visit as he has long been used by Teheran as the point man of Iran's foreign policy.  Usually whenever he travels to one of the regional capitals fighting flares up somewhere.  Larijani was in Cairo just before Teheran had Hamas attack the Rafah Terminal on the Egypt/Gaza border in January 2008, a direct challenge to the government of Egypt President Hosni Mubarak.

Those challenges and more are being planned during Larijani's three day visit as Teheran-Damascus-Ankara intend to disrupt any attempt by Allied governments to enage in combined operations against Iran.  Turkey Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly stated the West's has been extremely unfair in opposing Iran's nuclear programs as Turkey wants those programs to continue and for the past several years officials from Ankara-Teheran would openly discuss, plan regional/international cooperation as a way of exploring their potential to become the most important power Axis in the world community.  And if Israel can come under consistent, heavy attack it would reduce the chances of Israel's Air Force from staging any raid on Iran's nuclear facilities.

night watch:  rfn=ASHKHABAD -  "The last oil price shock in the Middle East was in 1990 when the United States invaded Iraq for invading Kuwait.  The price per barrel (ppb) of oil went from $21 to $26 on August to $46 by mid-October.  The looming Iran War is not priced in."  INN reports that was the warning from Christian A. DeHaemer oil analyst and Editor of his newsletter Energy and Capital.  Mr. DeHaemer also mentioned Iran is now surrounded by U.S. troops/bases on every border including Turkmenistan on Iran's northeast, as a result of military cooperation between Washington-Askhabad since 2009.  The Pentagon also has a presence in: Pakistan-Afghanistan-UAE-Qatar-Bahrain-Saudi Arabia-Kuwait-Iraq-Turkey-Azerbaijan.  This is being directed by the Kissinger-Primakov Strategic Working Group (SWG) the highest level of Allied decision making that was instituted when former U.S. Secretary of State Dr. Henry Kissinger arrived in Moscow April 2007 to work with former Russia Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov.

Resource security and control is the SWG priority which is why Presidents Dmitry Medvedev-Russia and Barack Obama-U.S. discussed more than chicken exports at their recent meeting in Washington.  Behind the scenes it was more than a Chicken Summit.  The price of oil is currently $78 per barrel and it will double again when full scale fighting begins and that could be set off due to an incident at sea as a ship(s) headed for Iran is intercepted and Teheran retaliates by doing the same in the Persian Gulf/Sea of Oman.

rfn=Panmumjom -  The interecepted vessels could have come from North Korea which will also come under attack by the U.S.-South Korea and perhaps Japan also in order to finally end their weapons/technology exports to Iran-Syria.  It is actually quite possible full scale fighting could begin in this regional theatre depending on when Washington-Seoul arrange the next provocation as the March 26 sinking of the South Korea corvette Cheonan blamed on Pyongyang.  Xinhua is now reporting the North Korea state news agency KCNA has aired this statement from Pyongyang concerning heavy weaponry that has been moved into the truce village Panmunjom by the U.S.-South Korea and has called it, "A premeditated provocationn aimed to spark off a serious military conflict."  The Panmunjom Mission of the KPA (Korean Peoples Army) announced the heavy weaponry was moved in at Saturday morning 7:25 am and is warning the KPA will "take strong military countermeasures".

But I suspect those countermeasures have already been planned by the Pentagon to be blamed on the North.  And it is quite possible when Teheran sees one of its most important sources of advanced weaponry come under attack Iran may decide not to wait for any incident at sea but will instead increase the war in Iraq-Afghanistan and have Israel come under attack and prepares to enter those wars directly in an attempt to reduce combined Allied operations against Iran's nuclear/ballistic missile facilities.

rfn=Shahbaz Air Base -  "Our mission is to maintain peace in the region with honor, but if the primary effort fails we will use all our assests, including these aircraft to defend our country against any internal or external threat."  Dawn/Pakistan Tribune report that was the policy statement from Pakistan Air Force (PAF) Chief of Air Staff Air Chief Marshal Rao Qamar Suleman at a ceremony held at Shahbaz Air Base-Jacobabad.  And all the U.S. officials, diplomatic-miliary present realize, or should realize, the real mission of Pakistan's armed forces has always been their next war with India.  "All our assets" include the three upgraded F-16 C/D Block 52 fighter bombers just arrived the first of a shipment of 18 and they will not be used against Islamic militants somewhere in Pakistan's nebulous Northwest Territories. 

The F-16 can carry nuclear bombs and Islamabad came close to using the F-16s they had in 1990 against India that January just two months after Pakistan began the Islamic uprising in November 1989 which has killed 47,000 people since then.  And every Pakistani dignitary and officer at the ceremony is aware the real reason Pakistan's military joined Washington's war in Afghanistan was in order to receive more F-16s, a realization the U.S. officials/officers at the ceremony have blanked out of their mind, what some will call a "no talk zone".  In attendence was U.S. Ambassador Anne W. Patterson, Chief of Staff U.S. Air Force (USAF) General Norton A. Schwartz, USAF Central Command Chief General Mike Hostage and U.S. Defense Representative to Pakistan Vice-Admiral Michael A. LeFever. 

Fighting in Kashmir has not really ceased since 1989 but there are two times of the year when it increases and threatens to set off the fourth full scale war between Islamabad/Delhi since their combative, divisive independence in 1947, May, due to the melting of the snow in Kashmir and September at the beginning of the Dry Season which runs through April.  The Dry Season also makes it easier for Beijing to enforce its claim over the northeast India state of Arunachal Pradesh which China invaded for one month in October 1962.  November 2006 Beijing revived its claim over Arunachal Pradesh and last year Delhi positioned two more divisions in its northeast and constructed more air strips.  During the past several years Beijing/Islamabad have established a joint military command and in February 2007 Pakistan President-General Pervez Musharraf presented Teheran is Action Plan since Iran is now poised to also enter the conflict.

night watch:  rfn=ISLAMABAD -  The Pentagon Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Michael Mullen, arrived in Islamabad accompained by U. S. Air Force Chief of Staff General Norton Schwartz.  IRNA reports this is apparently to reassure and impress Pakistan's military-political leaders there is no change in Washington's effort against the Taliban after the recent change in the U. S. military command in Kabul.  Admiral Mullen will meet Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari, Pakistan Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and Pakistan Air Force (PAF) Chief of Staff Marshal Rao Qamar Suleman who received General Schwartz at the PAF headquarters.  Xinhua reports U.S. Vice-President Joseph Biden personally called President Zardari and Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani in an attempt to reassure them as to Washington's seriousness, but that may prove difficult if not impossible since Pakistan's military-political leadership may be in complete agreement with the observations made by General Stanley McChrystal and his aides who had ridiculed the leadership in the White House over their behavior in the Afghanistan war.

Vice-President Biden's call and Admiral Mullen's visit is supposedly designed to bring Islamabad into Washington's "confidence" but Islamabad probably also noted the incompetency of the NATO-Pentagon effort in Afghanistan and that Washington simply fired a General who may have taken the anti-Taliban mission too seriously.  It is McChrystal who may not have been completely aware the real reason for the NATO bases in Afghanistan is not really to attack the Taliban but for use against Iran when full scale fighting erupts quite possibly this summer as a result of ships headed for Iran intercepted by Allied warships.  Ahmed Rashid of The Financial Times London reported yesterday the roads in Afghanistan linking major cities are still not secure, after nine years, including the Kabul/Kandahar highway that is "littered with checkpoints run by corrupt police, criminal gangs, warlords and Taliban groups."  And provinces around Kabul are still not secure enough for aid groups.

This means the anti-Taliban war is just a cover for the real NATO mission, in the meantime Pakistan's military leadership welcomes the latest visit since it comes as Washington has delivered three new F-16s, the real reason Islamabad supported the Pentagon's war, in order to resume deliverys of a fighter bomber that can carry a nuclear bomb.  Pakistan first received them during the 1980s but Washington suspended further sales in 1990 when Pakistan came extremely close to using them against India right after the Islamic uprising began in Kashmir November 1989, an uprising controlled by Islamabad.  Fifteen more F-16s are scheduled to arrive by the end of this year and early 2011 but it is quite possible that could be blocked permanently if war begins on the sub-continent in September during the end of the monsoon at the beginning of the dry season.  And poised to enter the war this time are Teheran-Beijing in support of the Action Plan of General Pervez Musharraf which he presented to Teheran February 2007.

rfn=Karatag National Training Center -  At the same time the Kissinger-Primakov Strategic Working Group (SWG) is proceeding to increase military cooperation between Moscow-Washington as PressTV/AFP are reporting Washington's Ambassador to Tajikistan, Ken Gross, has announced a new $10 million training center for Tajikistan.  "If requested, we might have people come in to help in training missions."  Officially this center, base, is not due to open until next year but I suspect it is already operational since events may warrant the need to have U. S. forces sent to a base just 30 miles (45 km) from the capital Dushanbe.  Tajikistan is on the northern border of Afghanistan and it is here World War III began with that BBC news report, February 2004, which mentioned Russian troops stating they were on a frontline fighting Islamic fundamentalists.  It was no secret the fundamentalists were supported by Teheran which has shifted its support to the Taliban and Russia is the only Allied government in a position for any sustained offensive against Iran's military bases.  The most important base for Allied air/ground units, from any country, are either in Russia or Central Asia states fomerly part of the Soviet Union that have maintained working relations with Moscow.

night watch:  rfn=UNITED ARAB EMIRATES -  "Operations of any company in the UAE proved to have connections with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), other entities or individuals subject to the UN assest freeze will immediately be shut down."  YnetNews/Gulf News report that was the policy statement by a government source regarding the more than forty companies operating as fronts for Iran's international network to purchase and ship nuclear/ballistic technology.  The UAE, including Dubai, are perhaps the single most important center for international trade into Iran.  The source explained, "The companies were proved to have been involved in proliferation of dual use (military/civilian) and dangerous materials banned under UN resolutions and the nuclear non-proliferation NPT treaty."  More than 400,000 Iranians live in the UAE and many function as fronts and business agents for Iran at the center of an annual $10 billion trade between Iran-UAE.

The following is an excerpt by the Haaretz article written by Yossi Melman on the system Teheran established - The Iranian government or the Revolutionary Guards send Iranian businessmen to the UAE.  There, the businessmen set up local companies, either alone or with local partners, to create the impression that they have no connections with Teheran.  These companies then buy equipment from overseas companies, ostensibly for their own use, while in reality the goods are sent on to Iran.  Alternatively, the UAE companies sometimes set up their own overseas companies and have them do the purchasing...In addition, many European and Asian companies have set up shop in the UAE to conduct their own trade with Iran.  The article mentions this is exactly how the network designed by Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan, the Pakistan scientist who led Pakistan's nuclear weapons program, operated and it has closely worked with Teheran since the late 1980s.  The only difference is Iran has concentrated on longer range ballistic missiles.

rfn=Washington -  Ynet News reports Israel Defense Minister Ehud Barak has been in Washington meeting the Chairman of the Pentagon Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael Mullen and will soon meet General David Petraeus commander of U.S. forces in Iraq-Afghanistan.  There has been no word on how long Defense Minister Barak has been in Washington but this comes right after the news last week mentioned twelve U.S. warships, led by the aircraft carrier USS Harry Truman, passed through the Suez Canal accompanied by a ship from Israel.  They are believed to be headed to the Persian Gulf and may be part of the new UN sanctions call for interception of ships at sea headed to Iran suspected of carrying weapons technology.  It will not be so easy for Iran's leadership to shrug off or dismiss these new sanctions and Teheran has warned it will seize ships in Persian Gulf/Sea of Oman in response.

rfn=Baku -  Nor has Teheran dismissed reports of U.S. troops in Azerbaijan near Iran's northwest border.  IRNA is reporting Teheran has had its Minister of Finance Shamseddin Hosseni meet in Baku with Azerbaijan Finance Minister Samir Sharifov in an attempt to improve and expand bilateral relations.  Despite their titles I don't think this is about economic relations because I assume Teheran realizes they cannot match the economic hold the Kissinger-Primakov Strategic Working Group (SWG) have on Azerbaijan through Moscow and the business Azerbaijan does with the West.  Attempts by Teheran to match the Allies economic influence is beyond Iran's foreign policy budget.  Attempts to entice Baku into military cooperation will not work since Azerbaijan has not supported Teheran's arming of Islamic groups in the North Caucasus or the military support of Georgia which borders Azerbaijan and threatens to disrupt the export of oil/gas resources to the West.

night watch:  rfn=TABUK -  "The relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel have been the talk of the town."  INN reports that was a commercial airlines passenger in Saudi Arabia as reports from Iran's Fars News Agency of the Israel Air Force (IAF) transferring equipment to the Tabuk air base in Saudi Arabia not far from the Red Sea.  The movement is believed to have taken place ten days ago and is being coordinated by Saudi Prince Fahd ben Sultan working directly with Israel.  Teheran lost support from Riyadh by having al-Qaeda become active in Yemen for the past year which threatens to destablize the Arabian peninsula and by preparing to attack international shipping in the Persian Gulf which will ring alarm bells from Ottawa to Tokyo.  The same sources are now reporting U.S. forces are in Azerbaijan's on Iran's northwestern border, reports that are confirmed by Azerbaijan's independent news site Trend.  This comes as the Pentagon sent a dozen warships, led by the aircraft carrier USS Harry Truman, through the Suez Canal last week accompanied by a warship from Israel which has just launched another military surveillance satellite today.

rfn=Mehran -  "According to our intelligence sources, U.S. forces have been deployed in a market on the Iraqi side of the border located straight across from a similar market on the Iranian border town of Mehran, have established these towers in an effort to screen Iranian exports at the Mehran border checkpoint."  PressTV reports that was the announcement by Mehran Mayor Valiullah Hayati discussing the new watchtowers constructed by the Pentagon but I doubt if this is just to monitor cross border trade.  I suspect these are for military purposes and may really be an attempt to monitor any possible Iranian troop movements on the border.

rfn=White House -  "We believe that the visit takes place at a new phase in U.S.-Russia relations...The President's assessment is that when you standup America's national security priorities, non-proliferation, Iran, North Korea, terrorism, Afghanistan--we had both much to gain from cooperation with Russia."  Hurriyet/AFP report that was the announcement by U.S. National Security spokesman Ben Rhodes on the eve of the three day strategic visit by Russia President Dmitry Medvedev beginning Thursday.  This will be the seventh meeting between President Barack Obama and President Medvedev as it comes during the final preparations by both governments for full scale war with Iran.  Moscow supports this campaign because Teheran as been arming groups in the North Caucasus that have been fighting Russia since 1994 and now supports the Georgia government in Tbilisi in the South Caucasus.  This threatens to disrupt Russia's ability to export oil/gas resources from the region and energy/mineral exports have been the foundation of Russia's economy for more than a century. 

These preparations are being directed by the Kissinger-Primakov Strategic Working Group (SWG) instituted three years ago with the arrival in Moscow of former U.S. Secretary of State Dr. Henry Kissinger in April 2007 to work with former Russia Premier Yevgeny Primakov.  Israel's moves are an integral part of the campaign and was the reason for Prime Minister Binyamin's mysterious trip to the Russia Black Sea resort of Sochi last year.  U.S. forces positioned in Azarbaijan is also part of this.  All that is needed now is the incident to set off the planned offensives and that could come any day with the Allies intercepting a ship from Asia carrying material for Iran's nuclear/ballistic missile programs.  Teheran has warned when that happens they will seize ships in the Persian Gulf/Sea of Oman.

night watch:  rfn=SOUTH CHINA SEA -  "We're extremely concerned about these reports and will closely follow developments."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the announcement by China Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang on reports, from the Washington Post, the Pentagon is considering sending another aircraft carrier to the Yellow Sea off South Korea's west coast for anti-submarine exercises.  The Pentagon maintains a carrier in Yokohama, Japan but an additional carrier would mean a more devastating air offensive against North Korea and its military-industrial facilities still attempting to export nuclear/ballistic missile technology to Iran-Syria.  Beijing is also concerned about reports of U.S. warships conducting surveillance right off China's southern coast.  Military-industrial services in China may still be exporting advanced weaponry to Iran in violation of the UN Security Council sanctions voted on June 9, a vote which Beijing supported.

But at the time of the vote Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was in Shanghai where I suspect he received assurances China's Central Government was going to continue to support the international network Teheran-Beijing established to circumvent sanctions which now call for interception at sea of any ship carrying weaponry to Iran.  Almost all of those ships would have to pass through the South China Sea.  Teheran has warned they will respond to any interception by seizing ships in the Persian Gulf/Sea of Oman.

rfn=Mehrabad Airport -  With relations on such a hair trigger IRNA reports Syria Vice-President Farouq ash-Shara has just arrived in Teheran at the head of a delegation and was met at Mehrabad Airport by Iran Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki.  During Vice-President Farouq's two day visit he will meet Iran Vice-President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Majlis (Parliament) Speaker Ali Larijani and of course Foreign Minister Mottaki.  This is for coordination of their governments war efforts not only against Israel but also for Syria to send more fighters across its border with Iraq.  Teheran wants to make every effort to reduce the chances of combined Allied operations against them.

rfn=Ankara -  Iran continues to increase regional cooperation with Ankara as IRNA reports Iran Minister for Labor and Social Affairs, Abdolreza Sheikholeslami arrived in Ankara at the head of a delegation in order to increase cooperation with Turkey in all areas.  The Minister was met by Turkey Labor Minister Omer Dincer and I do not believe they will be discussing labor relations but instead increasing the economic relations to reduce the impact of the latest sanctions.

rfn=Kabul -  The NATO effort in Afghanistan is beginning to unravel and is showing more signs of disarray as Hurriyet/AFP report not only were ten NATO soldiers killed in action Monday, including a helicopter crash in Kandahar, but Britain has just announced its Special Envoy for Afghanistan Sherard Cowper-Coles will be taking an "extended leave" after disputing with military officials over their strategy.  A year ago this site mentioned former Canada Defense Chief of Staff General Rick Hillier as warning NATO was "decomposing" and referred to the alliance as a "corpse" as a result of taking command of the mission in 2004.  General Hillier admitted NATO was not prepared for a major war and the command was ridden with jealousies and small vicious political battles.  But now there is a Rolling Stone article that will be published Friday called "The Runaway General" which describes the U.S. commander of its 90,000 troops in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal and his aides of being comtemptous and crtical of the White House and its staff from President Barack Obama down to Special Envoy Richard Holbrooke.

General McChrystal has apologized for his observations but I don't see how the damage can be repaired especially with the war going badly.  McChrystal has been ordered to attend the White House meeting Wednesday and it seems he is not even familar with President Barack Obama as the article quoted an aide to the General after a meeting with President Obama a year ago in the Oval Office, "It was a ten minute photo-op, Obama clearly didn't know anything about him, who he was, he didn't seem very engaged."  This is quite strange since Obama has made success in Afghanistan one of the pillars of his foreign policy.  Then last summer McChrystal received a dressing down by Obama when the General criticized Vice-President Joseph Biden for calling for fewer troops.  McChrystal and his staff, which is portrayed as intensely loyal to the General, have also criticized Special Envoy Richard Holbroke, U.S. Ambassador to Kabul, Karl Eikenberry and especially National Security Adivsor General James Jones former commander of NATO. 

General Jones was NATO commander when the alliance first began its war effort in 2001-02 which was at the time hailed as its first power projection outside Europe but General Jones admitted attempting to raise support for the effort from the alliance members was like "passing the hat."  An aide to General McChrystal actually described Jones as "a clown who is stuck in 1985."  The fact is there could be some truth in these observations as some in the Pentagon may have always suspected President Obama's committment may not have extended beyond his latest speech or press conference.  Perhaps Obama-Biden are not aware there are those in the Pentagon who intend to use the NATO bases for attacks on Iran and in the meantime conduct some operations against the Taliban.  I don't think that agenda would be hidden from the White House unless the White House is not interested.

night watch:  rfn=RIYADH -  White House spokesman Robert Gibbs announced President Barack Obama "looks forward to discussing with King Abdullah the strengthening of bilateral ties between the United States and Saudi Arabia as well as a range of common concerns related to Gulf security, peace in the Middle East, and other regional and global matters."  Teheran lost the House of Saud's support by continuing to threaten the Arabian peninsula by stupidly supporting al-Qaeda units that threaten Saudi Arabia.  Differences between Riyadh-Washington over Iraq have ended with this new threat from Teheran which includes Iran's intention of attacking international shipping in the Persian Gulf/Sea of Oman.  Doing so will be Teheran's single greatest mistake during the war since it will immediately create a lot of new enemies for them including most Gulf States.  I doubt if even Ankara would agree to such attacks as Turkey realizes Iran does not have to do that in order to make a powerful military statement but of course there are those in Teheran who want to show off what they can now do.

His Majesty is currently in Morocco on vacation and Asharq al-Awsat/AFP report he is expected to attend the G20 Summit in Canada and has been invited by France President Nicolas Sarkozy to be the foreign guest of honor at the July 14 Bastille Day celebrations in Paris.

rfn=Stockholm -  More concerns and regional plans are being put into place as IRNA reports Germany Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle is scheduled to meet Sweden Foreign Minister Carl Bildt in Stockholm on the threat from Iran.  This is most likely due to Iran's ballistic missile threat to Europe as mentioned last week by U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates at a Congressional hearing.  Wednesday Foreign Minister Westerwelle will be in Paris for a Tripartite meeting of the 'Weimar Triangle' - France-Germany-Poland and in attendance will be Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.  This will be to strengthen military cooperation between Russia and the EU (European Union) especially their ability to intercept ballistic missiles from Iran.

rfn=Teheran -  Ynet News reports Teheran has suddenly decided to postpone their two aid ships headed to the Gaza Strip.  Some official explanation was given but I suspect the real reason is Iran has to prepare for another confrontation, one in the Persian Gulf as reports circulated late last week a dozen U.S. warships, led by the aircraft carrier USS Harry Truman and an Israeli warship, had passed through the Suez Canal heading for the Gulf.  Teheran-Damascus have been years in planning the expanded regional war, especially when fighting ended in 2006 between Israel/Hezbollah that summer.  But major fighting could erupt as the Allies intercept ships carrying material for Iran's nuclear/ballistic missile programs and Teheran responds by doing the same.

rfn=Abdullain Border Post -  WebIndia123/IANS report 20-30 Indian BSF (Border Security Force) troops are trapped in the Zero Line after Pakistan troops violated the ceasefire for the second time in as many days by firing on the Abdullain border post in Ranbir Singh Pura sector.  This action is 18 miles (30 km) west of Jammu and is ongoing despite two flag meetings.  The firing began right after dawn and lasted for an hour.  The BSF units prepared an ambush to intercept infilitrators since the border firing by Pakistan Ranger units often provide cover for teams of infiltrators from Pakistan into India.  But this time the BSF troops are trapped and an operation is being planned after nightfall to free them.  If these troops are not freed and are killed or captured this situation could quickly escalate into the most serious fighting since the May 1999 Kargil probe planned by Pakistan General Pervez Musharraf who designed the Action Plan he presented to Teheran Feb. 2007.

night watch:  rfn=MANSUR -  "The report of the bombs disposal team confirms that the two attacks that happened in Mansur today were carried out by suicide bombers who drove the car bombs.  Each car was loaded with 80 kilograms (176 lbs) of ammonium nitrate.  They were detonated simultaneously.  They targeted the Iraq Bank of Commerce (Trade Bank of Iraq)."  France24/AFP report that was the statement by Baghdad's Operations Command on the bomb attacks on the bank which has been at the center of Iraq's effort to attract foreign investment.  Teheran timed the bombs to explode at 11 am when the bank and immediate neighborhood was full of people.  The explosions killed 26 and injured 56 and heavily damaged the bank.  Al Jazeera's correspondent Omar al-Saleh stated there are reports the bombs were not driven but were parked near the bank despite it being a heavily guarded area.  If so this continues the pattern of the bomb offensive Iran began last August with attacks against heavily guarded government buildings in and near the International Green Zone.  Everyone knows those attacks could not have taken place without cooperation from security officers.

There were also attacks across the capital overnight as a Katyusha multiple launcher was fired into the the Al-Obeidi district which is described as an anarchic slum area in the city's far east beyond Sadr City.  The rockets killed three and wounded four.  There were three roadside bombs in Hurriya in the northern part of the city which killed four and injured sixteen.  And in Zayouna, central Baghdad, the bodies of five women were found decomposing after they were killed either two/three weeks ago.

rfn=Gaza -  "...and the PA's (Palestinian Authority) security apparatus should free our hands.  In order to liberate Jerusalem and the West Bank, rockets must be fired from the West Bank.  Why should this fire come only from the Strip?"  Ynet News reports those were warnings from Hamas senior official Mahmoud al-Zahar in an interview with the East Jerusalem paper Al-Quds and if that rocket fire does take place it would be a major escalation in fighting and prompt an immediate invasion into the West Bank by Israel Defense Forces.  INN reports if Qassam rockets were fired from western Samaria they could reach Tel Aviv but the West Bank is monitored very heavily and PA patrols, along with IDF units occasionally find explosives for rockets.  I will be surprised if Teheran can enable Hamas to establish enough of an infrastructure for sustained rocket fire.

rfn=Persian Gulf -  PressTV is reporting the U.S. warhips which passed through the Suez Canal recently have begun to attract more attention.  There are more than a dozen ships and one Israeli, lead by the aircraft carrier USS Harry Truman and are believed to be headed for the Persian Gulf.  Jeff Steinberg of the Executive Intelligence Review in Washington said the ships should be watched very closely.  This could be part of the enforcement of the latest UN Security Council sanctions approved June 9 which calls for interception of ships headed for Iran carrying weapons/technology for Iran's nuclear/ballistic missile programs.  Israel's participation could be due to Iran sending flotilla of aid ships, that could also be carrying weaponry, to Gaza.  Teheran has already threatened to retaliate by seizing ships in the Persian Gulf/Sea of Oman.  The warships enroute to the Gulf will reinforce the Allied warships already in the area.

night watch:  rfn=TEHERAN -  "America creates propaganda with the aim of spreading its dominance over Europe and finding excuses not to eliminate its nuclear weaons in the region and to put pressure on Russia.  Iran's missile capability has been designed to defend itself against any military aggression and it does not impose a threat to any country."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the response by Iran Defense Minister Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi to the warnings this week by U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates during Congressional hearings that Iran can fire hundreds of missiles at Europe.  Iran's ballistic missiles are the main vehicle for Teheran's Judgment Day response to war with the West, Iran's main international rival including for influence in the world's energy markets.

rfn=Suez Canal - In anticipation of the worst Ynet News agency reports that, according to the London based al-Quds al-Arabi, eleven U.S. warships, including an aircraft carrier passed through the Suez Canal Friday accompanied by a warship from Israel into the Red Sea.  It is quite possible their final station will be the Arabian Sea to be in place when major regional fighting begins against Iran which has been threatening to attack international shipping.  This may also be in support of the latest UN Security Council sanctions earlier this month that call for interception of Iran's ships which are carrying weaponry/technology crucial for Iran's nuclear/ballistic missile programs.  Teheran has already warned in case any of its ships are seized it will do the same to ships in the Persian Gulf/Sea of Oman.  Haaretz reports the ships passage was protected by thousands of Egyptian troops which angered the opposition to President Hosni Mubarak.  Opposition leaders warned they will not sit idly while Cairo participates in what they call an international scandal of Egypt working so closely with the West-Israel.

rfn=Teheran -  IRNA reports Iran Interior Minister General Mostafa Mohammad Najjar concluded a meeting with Turkey Ambassador Umit Yardim just before the 13th Iran-
Turkey Security Meeting.  General Najjar stated the two governments reaffirmed their border (strategic) cooperation which I suspect implies Ankara allowing the passage of Iranian armed forces through Turkey in support of Teheran's 2006 security agreement with Belgrade.  Athens also signed a security agreement with Serbia that year as Iran intends to use war in that regional theatre to not only keep what is left of NATO busy and on the defensive but also to silence Vienna which is the headquarters of the UN International Atomic Energy Agency that has been investigating Iran's uranium enrichment.

rfn=Akashat -  "Two minibuses loaded with gunmen ambushed an army humvee in the main street of Akashat and killed seven troops and wounded one."  Al Jazeera reports that was the account of the military spokesman for Iraq's Anbar province as this action was right on the Syrian border.  The eighth soldier was shot several times but the gunmen left him alive "to convey a message to the Iraqi Army."  I assume the "message" (from Damascus-Teheran) that these are not the last attacks and, according to news reports, this was part of a wave of attacks across Iraq on Friday.  More than twenty people were known to have been killed and nearly a hundred injured in attacks ranging from Tuz Khumartu in the north to Falluja, west of the capital and Baquba in eastern Diyala province bordering Iran.

In Tuz Khumartu eight people were killed and 69 wounded in a car bomb near the home of provincial official Niazar Numaroglu who was not in the area at the time.  The city is a hundred miles north of Baghdad near Kirkuk which is still the center of a power struggle between Arabs, Kurds and Turkmen and Numaroglu has been targeted at least twice for assassination.  The house of police Captain Mostafa Muhammed was targeted in a car bombing in Baquba as Xinhua reports the first Friday attack was three Katyusha rockets that damaged houses in Abu Graib west of Baghdad.  Swissinfo/Reuters report an interpreter, working with the U.S. military, was killed in Samarra after repeated warnings by militant groups to stop working with the U.S.  He was killed by his son and nephew who considered him a traitor.  Of all these actions the most significant is the one on the Syrian border which could mean Teheran-Damascus have decided to begin sending more fighters from Syria to increase attacks.  Heavy action in the vast Anbar province would seriously stretch the resources of Iraq's army.

night watch:  rfn=WASHINGTON -  "It will be more likely be a salvo kind of attack, where you would be dealing potentially with scores or even hundreds of missiles."  Swissinfo/Reuters reports that was the warning from U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates speaking at a Congressional hearing Thursday in Washington.  Publicly, Secretary Gates gives the impression the threat is still years away but privately I suspect Washington and Allied governments realize the threat is current but do not want to say that publicly.  Last September Washington announced the integration of its sea and land based missile defense in and around NATO Allies in Europe.  That coincides with the annoucement that same month at the G20 Summit in Pittsburgh by three heads of state, France President Nicolas Sarkozy, Britain Prime Minister Gordon Brown and U.S. President Barack Obama on their governments new concern over Iran's nuclear facility constructed inside a mountain outside Qom.

But their real concern was the range of Iran's newest ballistic missiles using satellite guidance systems Teheran has been testing for the past few years as Moscow warned Iran was using these test to produce ballistic missiles of very long range.  It was even reported by Fox News last summer, when they aired a statement by Israel Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon, that Iran now possessed missiles which can reach the U.S. East Coast.  Gates continued, "One of the elements of the intelligence that contributed to the decision in the phased adaptive array (approach) was the realization that if Iran were actually to launch a missile attack on Europe it wouldn't be just one or two missiles or a handful."

rfn=Vienna -  More information has begun to emerge on Iran's nuclear weapons program as a result of the Spiegel International article by Erich Follath and Holger Stark.  It revolves around the February 2008 meeting at the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna conducted by Ollie Heinonen the IAEA Deputy Director and head of the Department of Safeguards.  The material was provided by indirect sources and recordings made by an Iranian scientist.  The Ambassadors from 35 nations to the IAEA are shown the documents and film and immediately afterward Iran's Ambassador Ali Asghar Soltanieh declares them to be a "fabrication."  But the Ambassadors cannot afford to ignore the information on Iran's development stages of nuclear weapons/ballistic missile production which began seriously in 1987 toward the end of the Iran-Iraq War.

Official contact was made that year with the Father of Pakistan's nuclear weapons program Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan who received a doctorate in metallurgy in the Belguim city of Leuven and then worked for a supplier for URENCO a manufacturer of centrifuges critical for enriching uranium to weapons grade levels.  Dr. Khan disappears in January 1976 and in 1983 is sentenced in abstentia by a court in Belgium for industral espionage.  1985 Pakistan begins enriching uranium and is belived to have exploded their first nuclear bomb in 1987.  Khan meets the head of Iran's nuclear program Masoud Naraghi in Dubai that same year and hands over detailed construction plans for centrifuges.  Naraghi has since defected to the U.S. but in the meantime Iran begins construction of secret facilities in the mid-1990s.  If you watched the news closely at the end of the Gulf War you may have seen CNN, the day after the war ended February 1991, show the London branch office of the San Francisco engineering concern, Bechtel Group, invited to Iran.

That is the reason Britain's establishment decided to have no embargo against Iran because they knew after damage had been done to Iraq's military there would be an enormous amount of money to be made by construction projects in Iran.  This is why former U.S. Secretary of State Dr. Henry Kissinger warned, as the Gulf War was ending, he was worried about a deal that could cause a worse war a few years later.  Dr. Kissinger was speaking on the ABC Sunday morning program This Week and is now in Moscow co-chairing the Strategic Working Group (SWG) with former Russia Premier Yevgeny Primakov.  The decision to construct subterranean facilities for Iran was an extension of the Iran Contra scandal which hit London-Washington in 1987 as Teheran benefitted from the international community realizing they could make more money arming Iran than Iraq.  It shifted a lot of decisions in Teheran's favor as the West automatically assumed they could arm the region to the teeth and sit back and watch the Islamic world blow itself up and never realized Teheran would ever become the international threat it now is.

The documents shown by Heinonen outlined Iran's 'Project 5' for uranium mining and how to process it into uranium hexafluoride and intermediate product within the process of producing nuclear fuel.  'Project 110' involved testing high explosive material at an altitude of 1,970 ft (600 meters) which would be done with a nuclear warhead.  'Project 111' involves the production of a nuclear warhead for the mobile missile system Shahab-3 with its 1,250 mile range and can be launched outside Iran.  And on the front page of the document is the literary motif, "Fate does not change people as long as people do not change fate."  A three minute Iranian film on nuclear weapons/ballistic missiles was also shown containing the soundtrack to the 1982 movie 'Chariots of Fire'.  The three minute movie showed the computer simulation of nuclear missile explosion.

The Spiegel article also mentioned the Russian scientist Vyacheslav D. a specialist in nanotechnology, who worked during the Cold War at the Soviet nuclear city Chelyabinsk-70 1,000 miles due east of Moscow.  D. attracted Teheran's attention in 1992 when he and his colleagues published an article in a professional publication on how to make shock waves from a nuclear explosion expand uniformly.  Teheran hired D in 1995 as everyone realizes the Jihad pays well.  Test explosions along those lines began to be conducted by Iran in 2003.  In October 2008 this site mentioned an Israeli publication, reported by INN, which mentioned Iran detonated an underground nuclear device near the Persian Gulf and announced it as an earthquake and that Teheran had done that before, conducted an underground test yet calling it an earthquake.

The German intelligence service BND, based in Pullach outside Munich was able to use a contact, an Iranian businessman who worked for the Iranian government on construction projects at the country's nuclear sites pouring steel and concrete.  He was codenamed Dolphin and during the late 1990s was controlled by the BND's Department One and would reguarly meet.  In order to protect himself Dolphin compiled 1,000 pages of documents and digitized them on his laptop planning to defect to the U.S.  But he was found out and arrested by Teheran in 2003 however his wife and children were able to escape and the wife took the 'laptop of death' with her.  It detailed Iran's attempt to convert uranium oxide to uranium tetrafluoride known as Green Salt under the 'Project 5.13' program designed to produce a ton of the material every year.  These are just some of the details in the Spiegel International article www.spiegel.de/international.

rfn=Diaoyutai Guest House -  Two military leaders from the countries that have played the most important roles in Iran's nuclear/ballistic missile programs met in Beijing.  Xinhua reports Pakistan Army Chief of Staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani was received at Diaoyutai Guest House by China Defense Minister General Liang Guanglie and other senior officials.  General Guanglie stated, "Cooperation between the Chinese and Pakistani armed forces is exemplary and has been fruitful."  The reason Beijing has been eager to support the nuclear/missile programs of Pakistan-Iran is because China's Central Government was always aware if both of their foreign policies are successful then three of China's rivals become weaker, the West-India-Russia.  That is why Beijing never supported the international community's effort against proliferation of weapons of mass destruction just only paid lip service to it.

Beijing established strategic relations with Islamabad in 1951 since both governments have territorial disputes with India.  China even invaded India for one month, October 1962, mostly in India's northeast state of Arunachal Pradesh.  In 2006 Beijing revived its claim over the area and last year Delhi positioned two more divisions in its northeast and constructed more air strips.  And last year the head of India's Army announced they were ready to fight China-Pakistan simultaneously.  General Kayani also met General Guo Boxiong the Vice-Chairman of the Central Military Commission who stated the two militaries have an all-weather friendship and the importance of maintaining strategic communications.  This means the two militaries not only have military communications on the highest command levels but have actually established a joint command and can operate in all weather conditions.  But I suspect they will wait for the beginning of the dry season in September at the end of this year's monsoon before full scale war begins.  Teheran is also poised to enter having received the Action Plan of Pakistan General Pervez Musharraf which he presented to Teheran February 2007.

night watch:  rfn=BRUSSELS -  "The European Council deeply regrets that Iran has not taken the many opportunities which have been offered to it to remove the concerns of the international community on the nature of the Iranian nuclear program.  Under these circumstances, new restrictive measures have become inevitable."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was from a statement released by all members of the European Union (EU) in Brussels as every member state supported more economic sanctions against Iran due to its continued uranium enrichment to weapons grade levels and production of ballistic missiles, capable of carrying nuclear warheads to every EU member state.  This is a direct follow up to the sanctions approved by the United Nations Security Council June 9 and these new measures will prohibit "new investment, technical assistance and transportation of technologies, equipment and services related to these areas, in particular related to refining, liquefication and liquified natural gas technology."

rfn=Washington -  Significantly the German business community, the largest European trading partner with Iran, acknowledged they will suffer some loss of business but that will be temporary.  In a coordinated development Swissinfo/Reuters report U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner read this policy statement, "We will continue to target Iran's support for terrorist organizations.  We will continue to focus on Iran's Revolutionary Guard.  And we will continue to expose Iran's effort to evade international sanctions."  Since the Revolutionary Guards became the financial agent of Iran's government, during and since the 1980-88 Iran/Iraq War, more of the Guards banking network has attracted more attention.  Since its Bank Sepah was hit by sanctions in 2007 the Post Bank of Iran has been used for the financial transactions needed for Iran's weapons programs. 

One transaction which attracted a lot of attention involved the transfer of millions of dollars to Hong Kong Electronics used by North Korea for exports to Iran.  Stuart Levy, Undersecretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence stated the new steps will also target the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL) especially their renaming and reflagging vessels in order to avoid detection.  Five companies involved in this were mentioned along with 27 new vessels and 77 renamed and reflagged.  The new sanctions regime will also blacklist Iran's Air Force and the Missile Command of the Revolutionary Guards due to their development of ballistic missiles.

rfn=Teheran -  "The Iranian Foreign Ministry expects the British government to take this matter seriously and provide an explanation as soon as possible."  PressTV reports that was the angry statement by Teheran after it summoned the British Ambassador Simon Gass and accused London and other Western governments of supporting the Mujahedin Khalq Organization (MKO) which was formed in the 1960s and was first opposed to the Shah of Iran then Iran's current government and has occasionally conducted attacks inside Iran.  The West never took this group very seriously but Teheran is using this latest accusation not only in response to sanctions but to establish reasons for full scale war.  This may be connected to Teheran positioning Revolutionary Guards units on Iran's border with Iraq this week in the Kurdish area.

rfn=Bern -  In a parallel development IRNA is reporting the Deputy Foreign Mnister of Iran for European Affairs, Ali Ahani, has arrived in Bern, Switzerland.  This may be used to discuss the economic ramifications of the sanctions and the readjustment of financial relations for the duration of the war.

rfn=Washington -  The diplomatic war continues to spread as PressTV reports several members of the U.S. Congress are warning Ankara over Turkey's close relations with Iran, relations that are indicating combined military operations due to the flottillas both countries are sending to Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.  Congressman Peter King stated to the Jerusalem Post the real concern is not so much the aid ships to Gaza but Turkey's relations with Iran, especially the full support of Iran's nuclear programs.  "This is a real effort, I believe, by Turkey, to distance itself from the West, and there has to be consequences for that."  Congressman Mike Pence stated he has warned Turkey's Envoy about Ankara's close relations and the consequences Turkey will face as Congressman Adam Schiff said he has circulated a letter in the Congress calling for support of the Armenian genocide resolution.

This is the beginning of the end of diplomatic relations, not only between Washington/Ankara, but also with most governments in the West.  Nothing insults Ankara more than resolutions which state Turkey committed genocide against Armenians in the late 19th early 20th century and France has long led those resolutions, something Washington has refrained from doing until now.  And this is just one month Teheran after staged its show of support by Brazil-Turkey for Iran's uranium enrichment.  This is not going to stop with statements concerning Armenia.  The next step will be statements of extreme acrimony, as Ankara responds in kind then relations will soon deteriorate into open hostility and calls, if not demands, for Turkey to be put out of NATO, unless Ankara walks out first by condemning the alliance as an international dinosaur. 

Diplomatic masques are coming off.  Heads of state all across the West are already showing signs of hating Turkey more than Iran and I suspect they will soon accuse Turkey of betraying the alliance and Ankara responds by telling Brussels where it can go.  Ultimately Ankara will show its support for Iran by allowing an Iranian army to pass through heading for Vienna as missiles are launched at Brussels.  It is even quite possible Ankara will allow Teheran to fire its mobile Shahab-3 missile at Europe with its 1,250 mile range, that can hit Brussels from Turkey.

rfn=Pyongyang -  "We feel very strongly that the international community must take a strong stance in the face of this provocation.  We've been very clear about sending a strong message of vigilance...of how unacceptable this sort of provocation, this undermining of the armistice is."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the warning by U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell in Seoul after meeting South Korea Foreign Minister Yu Myung-huan and Deputh Foreign Minister Lee Yong-joon.  Concerning Beijing's role Campbell stated, "I think it will be fair to say China understands the gravity of the situation and currently South Korea and the United States are making every effort to ensure that we are working closely with China on the way ahead."

The "way ahead" is for Washington-Seoul to arrange a second provocation as they arranged the March 26 sinking of the South Korea corvette Cheonan in disputed waters in order to finally end North Korea's weapons exports to Iran-Syria.  Under no circumstances did Pyongyang benefit from the Cheonan sinking and almost all of North Korea's economy is based on weapons exports, including chemical.  Though North Korea has a large, powerful army on paper a high level North Korean defector stated several years ago, in a Wall Street Journal interview, it had not been well maintained and a lot of the units were demoralized.

The next step is for Seoul-Washington to have a resolution passed by the Security Council calling for more sanctions which Pyongyang has warned it will regard as an act of war.  With events developing so rapidly that could be passed before the end of the month and hostilities/provocation breaking out soon afterward.

night watch:  rfn=MAHABAD -  "The presence of U.S. and Israeli forces along Iranian borders is the reason for Iran's military movements in the region."  PressTV reports that was the policy statement from Brigadier General Mehdi Moini the commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in West Azarbaijan Province.  "Through magnifying the ethnic, religious strife in the region and inciting terrorist groups they seek to destabilize our province."  This is a direct follow up to Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ordering foreign forces out of the region and Teheran is now stating its reasons for entering the war in Iraq/Afghanistan directly.  There are of course no Israeli troops on Iran's border but I am not surprised this is what Teheran is saying.  Iran regularly makes limited incursions and artillery bombardments into Iraq's Kurdistan area in order to suppress Kurdish nationalist units which support their Iranian counterparts just across the border.  Teheran has been preparing to expand the war in Iraq by entering it and reducing the chances of any combined Allied operation against Iran's nuclear/ballistic missile production and bases. 

rfn=Teheran -  For Teheran, timing is extremely important and this comes when Iran's leadership is attempting to create the moment of maximum confusion among Allied governments.  And that is why the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization Ali Akbar Salehi made this deceptive overture released by Asharq al-Awsat/AFP, "Our dual-track (trick) policy is to have dialogue (deception) based on honesty as a first step and, as a second step, to push ahead with our nuclear program in order to confront the pressure from our enemies."  This comes as PressTV is also reporting the Iran Majlis (Parliament) Speaker Ali Larijani announcing Iran will increase the level of uranium enrichment to 20% which is probably something Iran has been doing if not too higher weapons grade levels.  But it Iran's government has deliberately allowed some inspections by the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna in order to put on a show of cooperation.  And for several years, beginning in 2002-2003, Teheran conducted a series of deceptive negotiations with the EU 3 (European Union) Britain-France-Germany under the guise of coming to a negotiated solution to Iran's uranium enrichment.

But more importantly Larijani issued this near ultimatum, "I am warning the U.S. and certain adventurous countries that in case they plan to inspect the cargo of Iranian ships and planes, they should rest assured that we will do the same in the Persian Gulf and Sea of Oman.  This retaliation is part of our policy to protect our national interests."  France24/AFP report his statement was punctuated by shouts of "Death to America" - "Death to Israel" by the entire Parliament which has been waiting for this moment since the Khomeini government was established in 1979 laying the foundation for World War III.  The first regional impact was Washington having Iraq invade Iran in September 1980 due to the hostage crisis at the U.S. Embassy in Teheran.  There was also the assassination of Egypt President Anwar al-Sadat, October 1981 as the assassins cited Khomeini as their inspiration.  1982 Teheran establishes Hezbollah in Lebanon to enter the civil war that began in 1975 and now Hezbollah is waiting for the order to attempt to fire their 40,000 rockets at Israel. 

Larijani's reference to "certain adventurous countries" could mean Australia which this week approved the latest sanctions by the United Nations Security Council voted for June 9 that call for interception of ships at sea carrying weapons or technology needed for Iran's nuclear/ballistic missiles.  Almost all of those ships have to pass near Australia as they come from North Korea-China or even from Malaysia which means the first interception could be in or near the Strait of Malacca or in the Indian Ocean as they are headed for the Arabian Sea then Strait of Horumuz to Iranian ports.  The key to full scale warfare has always been what will be the spark to set if off and it is quite possible it could be an incident at sea which Teheran will use, not to just seize and search ships from enemy countries, but to initiate a series, a combination of events around the region including attacks against Israel and increasing the war in Iraq/Afghanistan.

Then finally Teheran will have war resume in the former Yugoslavia and activate its 2006 security agreement with Belgrade.  Athens also signed one with Serbia that year and Greece has perhaps the largest military budget in Europe and has sent military delegations from Russia and increased its strategic relations with China.  Beijing has done so for the same reason they have been the main supporters of Iran's nuclear/ballistic missile programs in order to see three of China's international rivals weaker, the West-India-Russia.  And with today's announcment by General Moini on the Revolutionary Guard units in West Azarbaijan, those units are not only positioned to enter Iraq they can also be used as part of an army Iran will send through Turkey heading for Vienna in support of the 2006 agreement with Serbia.  Silencing Vienna will end the inspections of Iran's uranium enrichment and what Teheran calls "pressures from the West."

night watch:  rfn=JERUSALEM -  "The flotilla from Gaza was not a one-time thing.  We find ourselves in the midst of a difficult and contentious battle against the State of Iran.  The flood of hate is being led by Israel's enemies all over the world."  Ynet News Agency reports those were some of the warnings and observations by Israel Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu at a party and Cabinet meeting Monday in Jerusalem.  "Dark forces from the Middle Ages are raging against us.  I have received calls from concerned officials in the Balkans and Eastern Europe who are very worried about these developments.  Be prepared for difficult days."  Prime Minister Netanyahu even warned about "surprises" even from Israel's Allies meaning the United States which has been trying to distance itself from Israel ever since the Bush Administration 2001-2008 and the hate emanating from Turkey's government which used to have close relations with Israel.  But the range of Iran's newest ballistic missiles have forced Washington and European capitals, including Moscow, to establish military communications with Jerusalem and joint operations planning against Iran.

But as Netanyahu and those officials from the Balkans/Eastern Europe are aware Israel's reluctant allies would rather experience, in their own lifetimes, the scene depicted in the painting Siege of Jerusalem which hangs in Belgium's Defense Ministry.  A scene from the First Crusade, militarism in the name of Christianity, which conquered Jerusalem a thousand years ago and that obsession still exists within international established society and those countries rank and file.  But because of Teheran that vision will have to remain on hold for nearly twenty years as the West-Russia will first have to recover, rebuild from this war against Iran.  For advanced warnings on the failure of any future invasion of Israel you can consult the Bible's book of Ezekiel chapters 38-39 and the book of Revelation, works which Netanyahu and those European officials may be well versed in.

rfn=Khorramshahr -  Ankara-Teheran are for the moment at the center of the current "flood of hate" and there is now more information on Iran's scheme to put in a highly publicized appearance in support of Palestinian people in Gaza.  Jerusalem Post/AP report an Iran official, Mohammed Ali Nouraee, was quoted by IRNA as announcing two Iranian cargo ships have already left for Gaza.  Haaretz reports the ships will be leaving from Istanbul and the Iranian port of Khorramshahr across from Basra.  Haaretz/Reuters report one ship embarked Sunday and the other is scheduled to leave this Friday and significantly it has also been announced they will receive no military escort from Iran's Revolutionary Guards which was mentioned as a possibility last week.  The Deputy Commander of the Revolutionary Guards, General Hossein Salami stated escorting the ships "was not on the Guards agenda."

Although it is now being reported three Iranian Parliamentarians have received permission from Cairo to enter Gaza through Egypt this statement from General Salami may indicate Teheran does not want to set off the expanded regional war by having Palestinian groups or Hezbollah attack Israel right now.  And the most serious statements from Iran President Mahmoud Ahamadinejad, for the past couple of months, have been against "foreign forces in the region" Iraq-South Lebanon (European troops with UNIFIL)-Afghanistan.  Iran's leadership may want to use a crisis with the West as its reasons to unleash full scale war and Teheran is aware that possibility has increased as a result of the latest sanctions that call for interception of weapons material at sea heading for Iran.  Teheran will regard that as an act of war. 

rfn=Aynak Copper -  "This will become the backbone of the Afghan economy."  The New York Times reports that was the ecstatic announcement from Jalil Jamriany an adviser to the current Afghanistan Minister of Mines regarding the vast mineral deposits recently discovered across the country.  Huge veins of: iron, copper, cobalt, gold and strategic industrial metals like lithium were discovered by a small team of U.S. geologists working with Pentagon officials as these findings were circulated in an internal memo and even referred to Afghanistan as the "Saudi Arabia of lithium" a mineral used in laptops and BlackBerrys.  But as the article warned this could become a curse as well a blessing and may actually increase the war for control of the country.  A small indication was last year when U.S. officials accused the then Afghan Minister of Mines of accepting a $30 million bribe from Beijing so China could acquire the rights to the Aynak copper mine.  And a lot of these resources are located in areas of heavy fighting. 

Even though it will take years to create the infrastructure necessary to exploit these resources major investment will begin to arrive, if not already and that could increase infighting within an already corrupt government.  There may be a chance for competing powers to attempt to establish a coaltion of warlords/political leaders who may cooperate enough in order to limit violence which could disrupt or prevent development.  But that may have to wait for the war against Iran to end as Teheran has plans to enter the Afghan war directly when relations with the West deteriorate into full scale conflict.  These resources have become the new top priority of the Kissinger-Primakov Strategic Working Group (SWG) which has been preparing Russia to reassert itself throughout Central Asia.  And Teheran will not refuse a chance to merge its regional policies with Moscow after the war.  Current fighting over the reources of the Caucasus has prevented Moscow/Teheran from working together.

night watch:  rfn=LONDON -  The Ambassador from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia , HRH Prince Mohammed bin Nawaf, to the United Kingdom, Asharq al-Awsat reports, has categorically denied his government has provided Israel's Air Force with an air corridor for an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities as was reported in British newspapers and on this site recently.  This is an official denial but unofficially I believe Riyadh has given its tacit approval for Israel and other Allied governments to use Saudi airspace for an attack on Iran.  As mentioned yesterday I suspect Riyadh has done so due to Teheran's use of al-Qaeda in Yemen, which threatens Saudi Arabia's internal stability and Iran has repeatedly threaten and has planned to attack international shipping in and near the Persian Gulf which threatens the economic stability of the Gulf states.  Riyadh knows Teheran has been lying about the real nature of its regional/international policies and of course about the real nature of its nuclear programs, therefore it is quite possible in this official denial Riyadh has decided to lie back.

rfn=Teheran -  "Iran and Saudi Arabia should take the same side of each other given their common religion, outstanding position and common interests and enemies."  IRNA reports that was the message by Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to the new Ambassador from Saudi Arabia Mohammed Ibn Abbas al-Kallabi.  This is not an emergency meeting but nearly as Teheran desperately seeks to reassure Riyadh it is not threatened by Teheran's regional policies even though Iran's actions state otherwise.  PressTV carried a news photo of the meeting and it reveals there was little common ground.  President Mahmoud attempted to say Iran was defending the region from the sinister designs of the U.S.-Israel but I doubt if Riyadh feels they need to be defended by Teheran.  Nor would the Saudi government believe the best way to defend the region is to attack it.  I would not be surprised if Riyadh also believes it is time to end support of militia groups in Baghdad since the Pentagon is scheduled to withdraw more troops in August and all by next year.  Riyadh does not share the same sense of a "blood feast" as expressed by Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.

rfn=Gaza -  INN/Jerusalem Post are reporting Iran Red Crescent official Mojtaba Majd has announced Iran has prepared two ships ready to leave for the Gaza Strip and a plane to Egypt which will carry 30 tons of food and medicine and all that is now required is permission from the Foreign Ministry.  AFP/Mehr news agency reported Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad stated there will be a detachment of Iranian Marines on board prepared for an armed confrontation with Israel which is excactly what Teheran wants.  Israel is prepared for such an event realizing this could set off the expanded regional war Teheran-Damascus have been years in preparation and I suspect the plane to Egypt is to challenge Cairo's control over the Rafah Terminal by attempting to send its supplies into Gaza.

Egypt President Hosni Mubarak is against any form of cooperation with Teheran and with the radical elements Iran supports like Hamas-Hezbollah.  Early last year President Mubarak even warned Iran-Hezbollah to "beware the wrath of Egypt."  His administration will view this aid as another attempt to force a confrontation that could result in Mubarak declaring war not only on Hamas but also on Iran. 

rfn=Baghdad -  Gunmen wearing army uniforms have raided the Iraq Central Bank in Baghdad.  France24/AFP reported the attack began at 2:50 pm as workers were leaving when a suicide attacker, wearing the uniform of a Captain, set off his explosives which was followed by a series of eight bomb attacks within the hour.  Gunmen took hostages and seized the building with most of the 15 dead being bank workers with at least forty people injured.  Gunbattles may still be taking place with army helicopters overhead engaging snipers on rooftops.  Beginning last month Teheran has used extremist units to attack economic targets.  Swissinfo/Reuters report May 25 there were robberies of Baghdad goldsmiths and June 9 an attack on the gold market in Basra in the south near Iran's border.  At the same time the civilian death toll from these attacks has slowly been increasing each month since the March 7 election created a political stalemate which will not be borken until the final U.S. troop withdrawal.  This latest attack took place the day before Iraq's new Parliament convenes Monday.

night watch:  rfn=RIYADH -  "The Saudis hinted that they would agree to allow Israeli jets to pass through their airspace to carry out a mission with common Israeli and Saudi interests."  Ynet News reports that was the announcement from a diplomatic source as The Times of London on Saturday reported Riyadh has given permission for such an operation.  The article stated in 2009 Meir Dagan, the head of Israel's intelligence agency Mossad, began discussions with Riyadh on this possiblity and has updated Israel Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.  This operation has been approved by the U.S. State Department and a Saudi source said, "We all know this.  We will let them through and see nothing."  Haaretz reports a U.S. defense source has said Saudi Arabia has allocated overflight clearance in a northern corridor and will have its anti-aircraft systems stand down.  "They have already done tests to make sure their own jets aren't scrambled and no one gets shot down.  This has all bee done with the agreement of the U.S. State Department." 

The facilities most likely to be attacked will be the enrichment sites at Natanz-Qom, the gas storage facility at Isfahan and the heavy water reactor at Arak.  I suspect the reason for the House of Saud's approval for this operation is due to Teheran's active support of al-Qaeda units fighting the government in Yemen on Saudi Arabia's border which threatens to cause instability in the Kingdom.  Al Jazeera reports militant groups in Yemen have just attacked and damaged the oil pipeline in Yemen's Maarib province near the provincial capital of the same name.  Riyadh probably takes the position Teheran's foreign policy is out of control and it is now time to attack the center of it.  At the same time Jerusalem Post/AP/IRNA have reported Ali Akbar Salehi the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization has announced the construction of a new nuclear facility in March, but in light of this new information that is highly questionable.

rfn=Pyongyang -  "The revolutionary armed forces of the DPRK (North Korea) will launch an all-out retaliatory strike to blow up the group's mean's for the psychological warfare."  Al Jazeera reports that was the warning from North Korea's General Staff targeting the 11 loudspeakers South Korea installed near the border broadcasting anti-North propaganda.  This was done after the March 26 sinking of the South Korea Cheonan which has been blamed on Pyongyang even though I suspect it was deliberately planned by Washington, with the full knowledge of Allied governments, as an excuse to attack the North and finally end is nuclear/ballistic missile exports to Iran-Syria.  North Korea's official news agency KCNA stated the government regards the loudspeakers as "a direct declaration of a war." 

Though North Korea possesses a large military a high level North Korean defector stated several years ago, in a Wall Street Journal interview, the military had not been well maintained and a lot of troops were demoralized.  I would guess Pyongyang could hold out for a month as a lot of its troops desert to the South and refugees attempt to reach China.  Beijing and other governments in the region are prepared to work with the new interim government afterward which will no longer block potential international investment.

night watch:  rfn=LONDON -  "I think it is very important that the European Union (EU) does take further measures, that we should show the European Union is prepared on this subject and others to use its weight in the world."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the policy statement from Britain Foreign Minister William Hague as London leads the call in the West to apply more severe sanctions on Iran.  In Washington President Barack Obama announced in support, "We will ensure that these measures are vigorously enforced just as we continue to refine and enforce our own sacntions on Iran."  These statements are being supported in Berlin-Paris, this means there may soon be an incident at sea as the Allies intercept and search vessels carrying material to Iran required for Iran's nuclear/ballistic missile programs.  And what makes such an incident extremely probable is the concern three Allied heads of state expressed last year over another Iran nuclear facility, the one outside Qom built inside a mountain to protect it against air attacks.

It was last September in Pittsburgh during the G20 summit which was interrupted when three heads of state, Britain Prime Minister Gordon Brown, France President Nicolas Sarkozy and U.S. President Barack Obama expressed their concern, but in reality the real concern was over Iran's new long range ballistic missiles which, Israel Deputy Foreign Minister Daniel Ayalon warned over Fox News a few  months previously, that could now reach the U.S. East Coast.  That was the result of Iran's successful satellite tests they had been conducting for more than a year, testing long range guidance systems.  This new ominous development increases the chances for that incident at sea as Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad dismissed yesterday's Security Council sanctions vote as a "tissue which should be thrown in the dustbin."

rfn=Teheran -  But President Ahmadinejad will not be able to dismiss the interception of weaponry, Teheran will regard that as an act of war and he is now in Shanghai (IRNA) apparently just to attend the Shanghai 2010 Expo but I suspect Ahmadinejad will meet Chinese officials that will reassure him, despite Beijing's support for the sanctions vote, China will still assist Iran through the international network Teheran-Beijing had long established to circumvent sanctions.  China's Central Government has supported Iran's advanced weaponry in order to see three of China's rivals weaker, the West-India-Russia.  At the same time PressTV reports Alaeddin Boroujerdi, Iran Chairman of the Majlis (Parliament) Committee on National Security and Foreign Policy, stated his committee will begin deliberations Sunday to draft legislation for reducing his country's cooperation with the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna.  According the the Mehr News Agency Boroujerdi also mentioned the U.S.-Israel were planning a "hot event" to distract the world's attention away from Israel's attack on the flotilla of ships from Turkey.

rfn=Ankara -  In reality it is Teheran which is planning a hot event, probably a series of them, what Iran Majlis Speaker Ali Larijani referred to last year as "war scenarios" as Teheran's real response to sanctions, events which Iran realizes will cause full scale war with the West.  Hurriyet/AFP indicate this new crisis has caused new unity within Iran as both the conservative Iranian daily Kayhan and the reform Aftab e-Yazd have denounced the sanctions vote and the governments which supported it including Moscow-Beijing.  Both publications, which are familiar with Iran's leadership, warn of "decisive" - "strong" responses and that could be connected to INN and the Kuwait paper As-Siyasa reporting Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has just been invited to Turkey by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The news report mentioned Prime Minister Erdogan was pressured to do so by Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal and that the invitation surprised Nasrallah, who will be escorted to Ankara by Iranian bodyguards.  Of course it was Teheran which had Mashaal extend the invitation as Iran is now using Ankara, eager to play a prominent role in regional affairs, as Iran's new base to plan and activate the expanded regional war using Lebanon as one of the flashpoints.  The invitation indicates Teheran is telling Hezbollah it is time to use them for what they have been prepared for, war with Israel using Hezbollah's 40,000 rockets and Scud ballistic missiles shipped to them by Damascus after Syria trained Hezbollah members in their operation.  But Teheran will make certain Hezbollah gives top priority to attack the 12-13,000 European troops in South Lebanon.

rfn=Beirut -  "What can Israel do?  The freedom flotilla brings a message of the beginning of the end of Israel.  A wind of change has begun to blow and Israel has begun to be a yoke not only for the Palestinian nation, but for the whole world."  INN reports that was the announcement by Mounir Al-Makdah one of the Fatah leaders in Lebanon speaking to the Lebanese publication Al-Sapir.  It is obvious Teheran has found another deluded leader at Iran's disposal as such delusions always speak about the end of Israel.  Actually it is the end of more of Israel's enemies as Al-Makdah boasts of a massive march on Israel's border with Lebanon now being planned.  Palestinians in Gaza attempted to do something similar a couple of years ago and Israel responded very effectively.  But Mounir believes the world will rise up in righteous indignation against Jerusalem but he does not realize the freedom flotilla has become old news, a media flash that has blinded him as governments in the West are more concerned about their own response to Iran's ballistic missile offensive.

night watch:  rfn=NEW YORK -   As expected the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) approved a fourth round of military/economic sanctions, the most serious to date, against Iran due to its enrichment of uranium to weapons grade level for warheads in ballistic missiles which now have the range to reach the West.  Twelve of the 15 nations represented voted for the measure with Turkey-Brazil voting against and Lebanon abstaining.  France24/AFP report this latest sanction adds more urgency and enforcement to the already existing sanctions which were first applied in Dec. 2006 and a third round applied March 3, 2008.  The most serious steps now call for interception and inspection of ships and planes suspected of carrying either nuclear/ballistic missile technology or equipment that can be used in major conventional weapons systems.  In addition to this forty entities have been added to the list of financial sanctions 22 of them connected to Iran's nuclear/ballistic missile programs including fifteen "owned, controlled, or acting on behalf of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp" with three controlled by the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines.

Swissinfo/Reuters report pressure from Beijing prevented the Export Development Bank of Iran from being one of the financial insitutions targeted by the blocking of transactions as obviously this bank is at the center of economic relations between Teheran-Beijing.  But the Nuclear Technology Center of Isfahan has now been added to the list of targeted institutions.  Before the vote Iran UN Ambassador Mohammed Khazaee warned, "In such a condition, the Islamic Republic of Iran has no choice but to react accordingly in the way it considers appropriate."  And Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad stated in Istanbul recently, "I have said that the U.S. government and its Allies are mistaken if they think they can brandish this stick of resolutions and then sit down to talk with us, such a thing will not happen."

The question now of course, what will happen?  I suspect Teheran will first announce an end to any negotiations with the West-Russia on this issue and will also increase the war in Iraq, around Israel, in Afghanistan and have fighting begin again in the former Yugoslavia where Iran signed a security agreement with Serbia in 2006.  Fighting in that regional theatre can be used to silence Vienna, the headquarters of the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency which has been investigating Iran's uranium enrichment.  PressTV reports Saeed Jalili, Secretary of Iran Supreme National Security Council warned since Iran's enemies have chosen confrontation that course of action will lead to a "dead end."

rfn=Tarnol Village -  "Seven people were killed and more than 50 trucks were set on fire."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the announcement by Afghan police official Ghulam Mustafa after at least ten gunmen arrived at the NATO depot at Tarnol village near the Pakistan capital Islamabad and conducted this attack on NATO's supply convoy.  Retired General Talat Masood observed, "This is surprising how close to Islamabad a group of so many militants have come and got away with it.  It shows there are serious security lapses."  Exactly, they arrived on motorbikes and a small pickup truck, hardly a sneak attack which means Pakistan security is working with them against NATO.  The attack took place at 11:35 pm, Imtiaz Gul, security anlayst in Islamabad explained, "Until a few months ago, Afghanistan bound vehicles had been transiting through the city of Peshawar.  They still do but following a couple of hundred attacks and the targeting of several hundred containers, the transporters decided to relocate the parkings and overnight stops closer to Islamabad.  We are told the terminals they use for parking did not have enough security.  It would be very difficult and expensive for the U.S. to find a different route to Afghanistan."

rfn=Helmand Province - The night attack took place less than a thirty minute drive from the Pakistan capital.  And this comes as NATO has experienced its deadliest week with heavy fighting in the Sangin area of Helmand province in the south.  A U.S. helicopter was shot down by rocket fire as it was flying low to the ground attempting to provide support.  Reporting from Kabul Aljazeera correspondent James Bays commented, "Sangin is the area of British operation...Always at this time of the year there's more Taliban activity.  It's what they call their 'fighting season.'  It happens every year.  But already this year 253 NATO soldiers have been killed and we're only just at the start of the fighting season."  More than 20 NATO soldiers have been killed already this week.

night watch:  rfn=RAMALLAH -  "Turkey's policy is emboldening Hamas and undermining the Palestinian Authority (PA).  Of course we want to see the blockade lifted but Hamas must also end its coup in the Gaza Strip and accept an Egyptian proposal for achieving reconciliation with Fatah."  Jerusalem Post reports those were the concerned if not angry words of a PA official based in Ramallah on the West Bank, the administration of PA President Mahmoud Abbas who has had some confrontational meetings in Istanbul with Turkey Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.  Ankara continually unveils it's close relations, including military cooperation, with Damascus-Teheran by supporting radical units like Hamas as part of the regional preparations for war against Israel, Western military units/bases, including the 12-13,000 European troops in South Lebanon and against the adiminstration of Egypt President Hosni Mubarak due to his close relations with the West because of his hatred of Islamic extremism.

The PA is "unhappy" with Ankara's support for Hamas as Prime Minister Erdogan has stated ending the power struggle between Hamas/Fatah "is a must."  Central to that rivalry is control, not only of the Gaza Strip, but also of the Rafah Terminal on the Gaza/Egypt border.  The official continued, "We want to remind the Turkish and Egyptian governments that the border crossing was controlled by the Palestinian Authority before Hamas launched its coup in 2007.  If the Rafah border crossing is going to be reopened  that should be done in coordination with us and not with Hamas."  Though the terminal has been partially opened by President Mubarak Cairo has been selective on who should be able to enter/exit Gaza and Hamas claims important Palestinians have not been allowed to use the crossing.  Passports required by Palestinians to leave Gaza are printed in Ramallah. Ankara and other Muslim governments,  including Riyadh may now decide to end their financial support of Abbas and Fatah and let the organization dissolve.

rfn=Teheran -  At the same time PA officials say there is no humanitarian crisis in Gaza because they regularly send material into the strip though Israeli crossings.  But Teheran wants to maintain the atmosphere of crisis as a new flashpoint for the expanded regional war.  And IRNA reports Alaeddin Boroujerdi, head of Parliament (Majlis) Commission on National Security and Foreign Policies announced the Iranian Majlis is ready to send a Parliamentary delegation to Gaza.  Boroujerdi stated the delegation will have relief aid for Gaza but what is especially significant is he made the announcement in a meeting with the head of Egypt's Interest Section Allaeddin Yousef.  Cairo/Teheran have not had full diplomatic relations since Egypt President Anwar al-Sadat was assassinated in 1981 and Iran's government named a street in Teheran after the assassin.  Therefore both governments are represented by Interest Sections instead of Embassies. 

President Mubarak temporarily closed Iran's Interest Section in December 2008 just before Israel's Operation Cast Lead into Gaza, because Damascus-Teheran were conducting anti-Egypt/anti-Mubarak demonstrations.  And now this new Gaza crisis, engineered by Teheran, not only to target Israel but mainly to attack Egypt's control over Rafah as a follow up to Hamas' attack on the terminal January 2008 with fifteen explosions on Iran's orders.  Recently Hamas has been demolishing houses in Rafah near the terminal in preparations for another assault and earlier this year Hamas gunmen exchanged fire with Egyptian security.  Officially Yousef is representing Cairo but in reality he is working with Egyptian officials closely aligned with Teheran as is the Egypt Minister of Intelligence General Omar Suleiman.

rfn=Zagreb -  B92 reports the governments of Croatia-Serbia have signed a defense cooperation agreement in the Croatia capital Zagreb today.  The agreement was signed by Croatia Defense Minister Branko Vukelic and Serbia Defense Minister Dragan Sutanovac.  Croatia President Ivo Josipovic and Defense Minister Sutanovac stated this contributes to stability in Southeast Europe.  But in reality I suspect this sets the stage for military cooperation between the two governments when fighting resumes in the former Yugoslavia this time caused by the collapse of the nationalistic government in Sarajevo or by Albanian militancy on the Kosovo/Serbia border.  This is not Belgrade's only military agreement.  Since 1999 it has been rearmed by Moscow and in 2006 defense agreements were signed with Athens-Teheran and last year with Lisbon.  Ankara has also increased its strategic relations with Belgrade in anticipation of a new wave of war against NATO, or I should say what is left of NATO.

rfn=Dandong -  "On the morning of June 4 some residents of Dandong city of Liaoning province were shot by DPRK (North Korea) border guards on suspicion of crossing the border for trade activities, leaving three dead and one injured.  After the incident, China attached great importance to it and immediately raised solemn representation to the DPRK."  Hurriyet/AFP reports that was the announcement by China Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang who added an investigation has begun.  No details have been released and there has been a virtual news blackout on this by China's state-controlled media.  This is quite possibly preparations for another provocation, as was the sinking of the South Korea corvette Cheonan March 26 by Washington-Seoul as preparations for war against the North in order to finally end Pyongyang's nuclear/ballistic missile technology exports to Iran-Syria.

night watch:  rfn=CIRAGAN PALACE -  "It would be a great move if you ensured national unity."  Xinhua/Anatolia news agency report that was the expressed purpose of the meeting in Istanbul at Ciragan Palace, stated by Turkey President Abdullah Gul to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas based in Ramallah on the West Bank.  Before the meeting Turkey Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu met Palestinian Authority (PA) Foreign Minister Riyad al-Maliki and the two signed an agreement to establish a committee between Turkey's government and the PA.  No details were released as to the nature of the agreement but I suspect it mirrors Teheran's cooperation with regional governments and militant groups they have supported, a combination of investment and military assistance.

The new unity message seems to be getting through to President Abbas who stated during an interview with Turkey's NTV, "The best answer to (the raid) is for Palestinian groups to reconcile and resist Israel hand-in-hand."  "The raid" is of course Israel's preventing the aid ships from Turkey approaching Gaza and fought with activists, some of which were connected with Islamic militant groups.  It was the kind of confrontation Teheran-Ankara wanted as Iran constantly maintains a crisis, if not chaos atmosphere across the region in order to generate more extremism and unity.  Abbas announced there will be a delegation of his Fatah party going to Gaza to meet with Hamas as its leader Khaled Meshaal was instructed by Teheran last week to call for unity in confronting Israel.

rfn=Sharm e-Sheikh -  This time last year Hamas/Fatah were nearly at war with each other, again, this time in the West Bank as Fatah began arresting Hamas members.  Relations became so bad it carried over into the Palestinian Unity Conference in Ramallah in which the delegates started arguing with each other to such an extent Saudi Arabia King Abdullah sent them an angry telegram telling them all off by saying their internal disputes were more of a problem than they had with Israel.  But now Teheran-Ankara have staged this new crisis by creating a new front against Israel, humanitarian aid sent to Gaza by sea, it has even become fashionable, and it has catapulted the Palestinian issue back onto the world stage as the crisis has resulted in a new call for unity.  And with Abbas in Istanbul was Syria President Bashar al-Assad, also meeting with Turkey's leadership in full support of Ankara's new leadership in the Palestinian cause which has resulted in Turkey's flag appearing all over the Gaza Strip.

Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is also in Istanbul, officially to attend a meeting of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) but in reality President Ahmadinejad will be celebrating this new regional coup, the unity creating crisis which is by no means a one time event.  Other aid ships are going to be sent, including some from Iran with the purpose of causing more than just a confrontation at sea, this is designed to increase the war in the region.  And Israel is not the main target just one of the flashpoints.  The military presence of the West is the main target as is the last Muslim head of state with close relations with the West, Egypt President Hosni Mubarak.  Ynet News/AFP report President Mubarak met U.S. Vice-President Joseph Biden at the Sharm e-Sheikh resort on the Red Sea today in the wake of the new regional unity after the flotilla crisis and both officials are aware the crisis is ongoing and could easily expand.  Vice-President Biden stated worriedly, "We are consulting closely with Egypt, as well as our other partners, on new ways to address the humanitarian, economic, security and political aspects of the situation in Gaza."

Russia Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is also in attendence at the CICA meeting and he is there representing Russia's re-emergence in the region as Moscow becomes re-acquainted and prepares to fill the vacuum the West will be leaving.

rfn=Teheran -  The other regional crisis coming to a new head is Iran's uranium enrichment to weapons grade level with the United Nations Security Council sanctions vote this week.  Ynet News/AFP are reporting President Ahmadinejad will immediately head for Beijing after leaving Istanbul.  Teheran is understandably concerned Moscow-Berlin have announced Beijing's support for the sanctions vote even though China's Central Government has been the most important supporter of Iran's nuclear/ballistic missile weapons programs.  Beijing supported Teheran's effort knowing if Iran exprienced enough military successes three of China's rivals will become weaker, the West-India-Russia in that order of preference.

But China's economy and its continued growth, is desperately dependent on foreign investment so Beijing has got to show it supports the latest international effort against Iran's uranium enrichment.  Though the Security Council vote is expected this week U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has warned Teheran "may pull some stunt in the next couple of days" to try and distract the world's attention away from sanctions.  Other than using the new fashionable cause of aid to Gaza, Teheran could use its favorite stunt-increase the level of crisis in the region by causing more attacks, first against Israel then against Egypt's control over the Rafah Terminal then against Western forces in the region.  The sanctions vote will increase Iran's level of hatred.

night watch:  rfn=GAZA -  "In the wake of the (last week) unfair attack, it's Iran's duty to defend the innocent people of Gaza.  Iran's naval forces are ready to escort the peace flotilla to Gaza with all their powers and capabilities."  PressTV/Mehr News Agency report that was the eager, anticipatory announcement by Iran cleric Ali Shirazi the representative of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).  Shirazi added, warned, all that was needed is a decree to do so from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.  I don't think Teheran is pretending.  I suspect this new crisis has been planned by Teheran by its Foreign Relations Strategic Council established in 2006 headed by former Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi.  They advise the Supreme Leader on any regional/international situation and direct Iran's involvement and role in any situation, events Teheran causes and attempts to control.

Former Defense Minister Admiral Ali Shamkani and another former Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati are also members of this decision making body serving for five year terms.  And working hand in hand with Teheran in this is Ankara where the nine ship flotilla embarked from representing Turkey's desire to see a larger war against Israel, one that would engulf the Western forces and bases in the region.  Of course Teheran-Ankara have designated this effort as a Peace Flotilla but its real purpose is to cause more war and serve as another front against Israel in order to cause the expanded regional war Teheran has been years in planning.  War in the name of sending humanitarian aid as Israel maintains a partial blockade of Gaza to prevent Hamas and other militant Palestinian units from smuggling in weaponry since Hamas took control over the Strip in 2007.

Leaders and officials from Teheran have for several years performed as if Iran's assistance to Palestinian people, including military assistance, is Iran's magnanimous gesture of support which will eventually take the form of committing a land unit in the field.  Iran has a brigade size Rapid Deployment Force (RDF) and I expect Teheran to attempt to send it to Syria, Lebanon if possible, under the glare and spotlight of enormous publicity to engage Israel Defense Force (IDF) units.  The Palestinian issue is just one of many issues Teheran exploits in order to generate more Islamic extremism which they will direct at the last Muslim head of state with close relations with the West, Egypt President Hosni Mubarak.  That will of course result in President Mubarak's declaration of war on Iran. 

rfn=Khouzestan Province -  Iran continues to prepare for, not only the expanded regional war but for invasions into Euope (in support of Serbia) and into India (in support of Pakistan) by planning more maneuvers.  Xinhua/PressTV reports Iran Army General Amir Pourdastan on Saturday announced extensive military drills for September in Khouzestan province in the southwest and Ilam province in the West.  The announced purpose is to use refurbished, upgraded tanks, helicopters and pilotless aircraft.  Weaponry fired by composite launchers will also be tested but events could prevent such maneuvers from being carried out.  Teheran may have assumed Israel will not result in the use of force to prevent the flotilla ships from reaching Gaza but Jerusalem may have decided to do just that even if Turkey Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is on one of the ships as he has announced he might do.

Iran's Foreign Relations Strategic Council (FRSC) may also have assumed Israel will not launch a pre-emptive attack on the Scud missiles Damascus has dumped on Hezbollah in Lebanon even though pre-emptive attack is part of Israel's defense doctrine.  Experts as the Foreign Relations Strategic Council are those assumptions may be an extreme miscalculation.

rfn=Paris -  RFI is reporting France Defense Minister Herve Morin has arrived in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on the Red Sea to begin his two day visit to the Kingdom to meet Saudi Arabia Deputy Defense Minister P:rince Khaled bin Sultan in order to discuss "questions of regional security and cooperation on defense."  July last year Paris sold to Riyadh three Airbus A330 military refuelling planes and has been engaged in serious negotiations for the Saudi Navy to purchase helicopters and three FREMM frigates.  But I suspect the real purpose of Defense Minister Morin's visit is to inquire if the House of Saud would be willing to cooperate with Allied efforts to maintain access to the Persian Gulf.  Morin will be meeting King Abdullah and though His Majesty may no longer want the presence of Western military bases in the region he may not want to see a second Persian Empire as he remembers the first had a tendency to be extremely dictatorial economically. 

And an Iran which has been militarily successful could hinder the extensive industrial expansion the Saudi government has been undertaking to make their economy less dependent on oil exports.  Consequently the House of Saud would not take too kindly to Iran's attack on international shipping and may be willing to provide the Allies with support bases and military-intelligence information for the duration of the war.

rfn=Chequers -  At the same time Britain Prime Minister David Cameron is meeting with the Foreign Minister of the Gulf State with the closest military relations with Teheran, Qatar Foreign Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim bin Jabor al-Thani.  The Gulf-Times, which is based in Qatar, reported "Iran also featured in their discussions."  This is not surprising since Qatar's ruler, His Highness the Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, visited Beirut right after fighting had ended that erupted between Israel/Hezbollah summer 2006, and openly praised Hezbollah and stated he wished oil had been used as a weapon.  And Qatar has sent high level military delegations to observe every Iranian military maneuvers this year.  The Pentagon maintains a large airbase in Qatar which the Qatari government wants to see destroyed.  I doubt if Prime Minister Cameron will receive anything more than a polite hearing from Qatar Deputy Defense Minister Jabor al-Thani.

night watch:  rfn=MESEBERG PALACE -  "I am very happy that we can stand here together today and say this is a common position, including not only the European Union (EU), the United States and Russia, but also China.  It is possible that in the near future the sanctions can be approved by the U.N. Security Council."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the policy statement by Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel speaking at a joint news conference with Russia President Dmitry Medvedev at Schloss (Palace) Meseberg the government guesthouse north of Berlin Saturday.  The Chancellor spoke of a consensus among world powers as a "major diplomatic advance" and expects a vote to take place soon.  Washington has stated it could take place next week and only nine votes are needed in the fifteen member Security Council to pass a fourth round of sanctions on Iran due to its uranium enrichment to weapons grade levels for nuclear warheads on Iran's ballistic missiles.

Due to Iran's successful satellite tests those missiles now have the range to reach Berlin.  There has been no response yet from Teheran on this announcement and it is quite possible Iran will respond through events by increasing the war in Iraq-Afghanistan and in the former Yugoslavia by using its contacts and support of Albanian nationalist groups.  At the same time Teheran signed a security agreement with Serbia in 2006 which Iran will use to intervene directly in the fighting in that regional theatre, Iran's avenue of invasion into Europe.  Teheran knew a new sanctions vote was coming and has warned its response this time will be different from previous attempts to apply sanctions.  President Medvedev warned, "The situation is such that agreeement on sanctions almost exists.  We hope that the voice of the international community will be heard by the Iranian leadership.  One cannot continue behaving irresponsibly.  It is important to listen to what is said in the international arena."

Iran's leadership is indeed listening but obviously in the spirit of complete disagreement.  Teheran intends to become the main voice in global energy markets which is why they have supported groups fighting with Russia in the Caucasus since 1994 and now by supporting Georgia in the South Caucasus.  War there threatens Russia's ability to export oil/gas resources from this region which is a crossroads of energy pipelines and industrial concerns in the West, led by Berlin, want Moscow to restore its complete control over the area realizing that means full scale war with Iran.  That is why Germany's government played a central role in establishing the Kissinger-Primakov Strategic Working Group (SWG) with the arrival of former U.S. Secretary of State Dr. Henry Kissinger to Moscow in April 2007 to work with former Russia Premier Yevgeny Primakov.

Then last year Berlin not only increased its military budget but at a ceremony at a palace in Bavaria established close military relations with Moscow, relations which will remain after Teheran's foreign policy runs its offensive course.  Germany realizes the NATO alliance will be dissolved as a result of the war.

rfn=Athens -  ANA-MPA are reporting U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton conduced a phone conversation with Greece Prime Minister and Foreign Minister George Panpandreou on "the situation in Gaza, the issue of Iran and other regional issues."  State Department spokesman P. J. Crowley announced the two "examined some ideas" and that Washington was discussing with a number of countries "a broad spectrum of options."  I suspect Secretary Clinton was really briefing Prime Minister Papandreou on Washington's military responses to any new fighting caused by Teheran in the region or even if the expanded regional war is caused by a pre-emptive attack by Israel on the Scud missiles Syria has sent to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

night watch:  rfn=ASHKELON -  "To our regret, we already experienced such fire.  We hope not to see an escalation."  Ynet News agency reports that was the repsonse from the Mayor of Ashkelon Benny Vaknin in south Israel, just ten miles from Gaza, after he had been warned by security officials to "maintain full alert ahead of possible firing of Qassams and Grad missiles."  Thursday evening four Qassams were fired from Gaza.  This comes as Iran's government recently completed a series of new meetings with Palestinian officials which is always a sign new violence is coming, designed to cause another offensive by the Israel Defense Force (IDF as part of the expanded regional war planned by Teheran-Damascus.  The regional war has the full support from Turkey's government in Ankara which has played an eager, active role in opening up the new front against Israel, humanitarian aid ships with violent activists on board trained in Pakistan-Afghanistan.  This will indeed prompt another offensive by Jerusalem into Gaza and it could be much more thorough this time to eliminate Hamas completely unless they can flee into the Sinai through the Rafah Terminal.

rfn=Gaza -  "This targeting of NGO's (non-governmental organizations) including UN Partner organizations is unacceptable, violating acceptable norms of a free society and harming the Palestnian people.  The de facto (Hamas) authorities must cease such repressive steps and allow the re-opening of these civil society institutions without delay."  Jerusalem Post reports that was the angry statement by Robert Serry United Nations Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process after Hamas raided and shutdown NGO offices working with a variety of civil organizations including those working with children, women and the Future Builders Society.  No explanation was given as Hamas agents telephoned the directors of all these groups and confiscated computers, documents, faxes, reports, cameras, electronic equipment and even door keys.  Most of this took place Monday-Tuesday especially in Rafah on the border with Egypt.

This is being done on instructions from Teheran which want Hamas to remove any international agency from the territory and to especially control Rafah in preparation for another assault on Egypt's control over the Terminal which Iran had Hamas attack with fifteen explosions in January 2008.  Hamas will be mainly directed at Egypt in support of opposition groupt to President Hosni Mubarak due to his close relations with the West.  That will result in President Mubarak declaring war not only on Hamas but on Iran also.  The fighting in 2006 flared up in late June when Hamas captured an Israeli soldier resulting in an immediate IDF offensive and just three weeks later Teheran had Hezbollah stage an ambush across Israel's northern border.  This time both Teheran-Damascus are prepared to enter and to prevent or at lest reduce the chances of combined Allied operations Iran will have war increase in Iraq-Afghanistan-former Yugoslavia.

rfn=Khushab -  "Our conservative estimates are that Pakistan has sixty (nuclear) warheads and can produce 100  nuclear weapons at short notice."  Gulf-Times report that was the finding by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in its annual report.  The report also mentioned Pakistan is near too completing two new plutonium reactors in Khushab in the Punjab.  Plutonium weapons are the kind North Korea has researched in its Yongbyon reactor and I assume Iran's nuclear weaponry is in the same classification.  When Islamabad exploded its nuclear bombs in 1998, in response to India, Pakistan was then visited by Iran's Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi who praised what he called the "Islamic Bomb."  I have always suspected whatever Pakistan has Iran has also the only difference being Teheran has developed longer range ballistic missiles to reach the West.

The SIPRI report also mentioned Pakistan is developing the Ra'ad air launched cruise missile and has completed four test of the land-launched sub-sonic cruise missile Babar.  September is the best time for full scale war on the sub-continent since it is the end of the monsoon.  But this fourth war between Pakistan/India will not remain between Pakistan/India.  Both Iran-China are prepared to enter due to their support of the offensive Action Plan of Pakistan General Pervez Musharraf which he presented to Teheran February 2007 when he was head of state.  Beijing revived its claim over Arunachal Pradesh in northeast India in 2006 the same area China invaded for one month October 1962 during the dry season that year.  Last year India positioned two more divisions in its northeast and constructed more air strips as Delhi warned it is prepared for war against Pakistan-China simutaneously.

night watch:  rfn=GENEVA -  "The present situation of the Korean Peninsula is so grave a war may break out any moment."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the serious warning made by Ri Jang Gon, North Korea's Deputy Ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva.  This is no exaggeration as this site has mentioned the March 26 sinking of the South Korea Corvette Cheonan was not caused by submarines or human torpedoes from North Korea.  But was staged by Washington-Seoul to justify an offensive against the North to destroy its nuclear weapons/ ballistic missile test facilities in order to finally end Pyongyang's exports of weapons technology to Iran-Syria.  The satellite test programs of Iran-North Korea have been closely connected and it is due to the successful satellite tests in Iran for more than a year, which has enabled Iran to produce ballistic missiles with an extremely long range beyond West Asia (Middle East).  Last year Israel Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon warned, over Fox News, that Iran now has missiles that can reach the U.S. East Coast.

Iran's ballistic missile threat to the West was the real reason the G20 Summit in Pittsburgh last September was interrupted when three heads of state:  France President Nicolas Sarkozy, Britain Prime Minister Gordon Brown and U.S. President Barack Obama expressed their government's concerns over another Iranian nuclear facility near Qom built inside of a mountain as protection against air attacks.  Those are the kind of attacks the Pentagon is now preparing, since the beginning of the year, when an Israeli publication mentioned, a few months ago, the Pentagon had been shipping hundreds of bunker bombs to its air/naval base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.

rfn=Yellow Sea -  It is now being reported by WebIndia123/New York Times Washington is seriously considering sending the aircraft carrier USS George Washington to the Yellow Sea off the Korean Peninsula apparently as a show of force.  Two senior Pentagon officials have told Fox News the decision to do so will be made at the end of the week and the carrier could leave by Tuesday.  In reality this is more than a show of force, actually to provide more air support for the U.S.-South Korea troops, in addition to the carrier already based in Yokohama, Japan.  Though North Korea possesses a large army a high level North Korean defector, who knows Kim Jong-Il personally, stated several years ago in a Wall Street Journal interview North Korea's military has not been well maintained and a lot of troops were demoralized.  I would guess North Korea's defensive effort will last a  month as troops defect to the South and refugees arrive in China.

rfn=Teheran -  This will have an enormous impact on the decision making in Teheran as IRNA announced the Deputy Commander of the Air Force, General Mohsen Darrehbaqi stated air units will stage a wargame in late July, though no definite air base was mentioned.  It is highly unusual for Teheran to announce a maneuver nearly two months in advance and I suspect they realize the wargame will actually be a real war air offensive from unannounced bases against U.S. troops and bases in Iraq and against NATO troops and bases in Afghanistan.  But if war is imminent on the Korean Peninsula as Ambassador Gon says, Iran will be conducting its air offensives before this month is over after first increasing war in Iraq-Afghanistan as Teheran accuses foreign forces in the region as being the cause of instability.

night watch:  rfn=KABUL -  "Sit down, nothing will happen.  I have become used to this.  Everyone is used to this."  Swissinfo/Reuters report those were the words of Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai as he attempted to reassure the 1,600 Afghan Jirga delegates as a Taliban suicide squad attacked the gathering in the presence of representatives from the West.  President Karzai has become so used to this, I suspect not only did he know it was going to happen, but has a tacit understanding with Teheran-Islamabad that he should continue to convene these gatherings in order for the Taliban to attack them and disrupt any plans by NATO to control the country.  President Karzai, a head of state double agent on record as no longer supporting NATO, made his speech then hurried off in an armored motorcade and this is just the first day of a three day conference. 

After the initial suicide attack, by gunmen disguised as women wearing the body covering burga, gunfire was heard in Ashfar the southeast district of Kabul for several hours.  France24/AFP report a Taliban spokesman, Zabibullah Mujahid, called from an undisclosed location and stated, "We have four suicide attackers placed on the top of a tall building near the Jirga tent.  They are threats to the Jirga tent.  They are using rockets, they have small arms they have explosives strapped to their bodies."  European Union Ambassador to Kabul, Vygaudas Usackas attempted to sound optimistic, "It is important for the Afghan and Western audience that there is something taking place."  But the reality the EU, and its proud tower decision making, ignore they are supporting the pretense of a government which cannot prevent Taliban attacks and with the awkward, sometimes conflicting support of the Brussels based NATO alliance which will have 150,000 troops in the country by August inside an enormous military trap set by Teheran.

12,000 troops were guarding the conference yet the attack still took place.  Attacks will continue to take place, with greater intensity and for the reason released in a Taliban statement, "The foreign forces and their surrogates utilize this consultative Jirga only as a propaganda stunt and wrongly (paint) it as a representative body of the Afghans."  Another, more thorough and frank explanation was given by Najibullah Mujahid, 42, a Tajik from the north and former Army officer, "One of the reasons why we have war in Afghanistan is the presence of foreign forces.  The way they treat people, the way they arrest people, conduct operations...ignore our culture, traditions and Islamic values...if we cannot address these concerns, talk about these issues and find ways, then this Jirga will have no fruit."

James Bays of Al Jazeera realistically observed, "I think some Afghans...will say if they can't even secure the area around the gathering that they've talked about for months on end with the immense security preparations in place, what chance have they of trying to secure the rest of the country?"  Mirwais Yasini, Deputy Speaker of Parliament admitted, "It was a big shock for us and for the nation.  We were sure that the security was very good here and there would be no security blunder...The war has expanded to reach about 20 provinces in Afghanistan."  Abdullah Abdullah, former Foreign Minister and the main opponent in last year's highly controversial Presidential elections warned, "The agenda has been decided behind closed doors."  I suspect Abdullah realizes NATO has decided to use these bases to attack Iran while at the same time put on a show of nation building as Afghanistan remains in the crosshairs of conflicting agendas between: NATO/Iran-Pakistan/India-Russia.

It is Teheran's timetable which has the biggest chance of success as they and Islamabad have enabled the Taliban to conduct operations in twenty provinces and with NATO deliberately refusing to become heavily engaged in some of them.  At the same time the 150,000 NATO troops, projected to be here by August, are all within easy range of Iran's ballistic missiles, rockets and air attacks.  Under no circumstances will Teheran sit idly by, defensively, and watch as these bases are used to attack Iran's nuclear/ballistic missile facilities.  Watch for Teheran to increase the war after this month's sanctions vote at the United Nations Security Council.

night watch:  rfn=NATANZ -  The Board of Governors of the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), based in Vienna, were presented Monday with the most critical reports too date on Iran's uranium enrichment to weapons grade level.  Asharq al-Awsat has been informed by senior sources within the IAEA its Director General Yukiya Amano will release two secret reports ahead of the June 7 Board of Governors meeting which will also be used to examine Syria's nuclear program which has been fueled by plutonium exports from North Korea.  The nuclear files of both Syria-Iran will be at the top of the agenda at the June 7 meeting as both countries have been not only actively supported by Pyongyang, but Beijing has been a major supporter of Iran's nuclear/ballistic missile programs since they realized if Teheran is militarily successful three of China's rivals will become weaker, the West-India-Russia.  Teheran-Beijing are the two most important supporters of the offensive Action Plan of Pakistan General Pervez Musharraf which he presented to Teheran February 2007 when he was head of state. 

According to WebIndia123/New York Times the reports outline in detail Iran is known to possess 5,300 tons of low enriched uranium but at the same time Teheran has repeatedly denied IAEA inspectors access to certain facilities.  And that is why I have long stated Iran has probably developed weapons grade uranium quite some time ago but has been concentrating on developing ballistic missiles that can carry a nuclear warhead beyond the region using rocket launchings of satellites as a test.  Damascus suffered a setback when Israel destroyed the Syrian plutonium facility in September 2007 with an air attack.  The facility had been financed by Teheran and constructed by North Korea but Iran has never experienced any obstruction to its nuclear program ever since it was revived in the mid-1980s.

The IAEA reports Monday will also mention inspectors discovered work at the Natanz site has been expanded and Iran has refused to answer questions on a variety of activities including "possible existence" of "activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile."  These reports will be used by the UN Security Council this month for a fourth and more serious round of economic-military sanctions against Iran and Teheran has been warning it is prepared to respond differently to previous sanctions.  There is no peaceful resolution to this.

rfn=Damascus -  "The Prime Minister is heading to Damascus today but we cannot elaborate further."  Asharq al-Awsat/AFP report that was the announcement Monday by a Lebanese official on the sudden visit to Damascus by Prime Minister Saad Hariri.  I suspect this visit is more of a summons to be used by Teheran-Damascus to deliver a more precise timetable to Prime Minister Hariri on Lebanon's role in the expanded regional war Teheran-Damascus have been preparing for the past several years.  Iran uses Damascus as a base to plan wars with Israel using Palestinian groups in Gaza but this time the fighting is intended to trap the 12,000 European troops in South Lebanon serving under UNIFIL (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon) which will be one of the responses Teheran will make against any further sanctions as Iran's relations with the West reaches critical mass.

rfn=Istanbul -  More information has been relased on the group IHH (Turkish acronym for "humanitarian relief") based in Istanbul.  INN reports an investigation by Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center (ITIC) has revealed IHH has been in close cooperation with Hamas, which reacted as if the flotilla out of Turkey was a celebrated occasion.  The flotilla was led by the Mavi Marmaris, one of three ships purchased by IHH, which has long been part of a network of fifty Islamic foundations within the umbrella organization the Union of the Good that use humanitarian activities as a cover for the support of radical Islamic groups including Hamas.  That forced Turkey's government to raid IHH offices in Istanbul in 1997 and they seized explosives, instructions on homemade bombs and documents which said IHH was supporting Islamic groups fighting in Afghanistan-Chechnya-Bosnia.

Now the Turkish government in Ankara is supporting IHH to promote Ankara's agenda for the war against Israel and to work with Damascus-Teheran and the Egyptian opposition to President Hosni Mubarak due to his close relations with the West.  It is also quite possible Ankara-Teheran will use IHH's connections in Bosnia-Hercegovina to have fighting begin again in the former Yugoslavia in order to keep the West busy in another regional theatre.  War there can be used to silence Vienna, the headquarters of the IAEA.

night watch:  rfn=PERSIAN GULF -  "We are an underwater assault force operating deep and far-very far-from our border."  INN reports that was the announcement by "Colonel O" commander of Israel's Flotilla 7, three Dolpin Class submarines equipped with nuclear cruise missiles built by Germany's Blom and Voss a division of Thyseen-Krupp Marine Systems (TKMS) Group.  Colonel O continued, "We do serve as a solid base for collecting sensitive information because we can stay in one place for a long time."  These submarines can spend fifty days at sea and underwater for a week at depths of up to 1,150 ft.  An officer told the British Sunday Times, "The 1,500 km (900 miles) range of the submarines cruise missiles can reach any target in Iran."  For example the range from the Persian Gulf to Iran's missile base outside Teheran, the base for Iran's longest range ballistic missiles, is only 700 miles.

Israel has three submarines in this class and until the threat from Teheran and its regional axis partners, Damascus-Ankara-Hezbollah is defeated, at least one of these submarines will remain on duty in the Gulf as part of the Allied response to the expanded regional war Teheran-Damascus have been preparing.  This new deployment is apparently Jerusalem's response to Hezbollah in Lebanon receiving Scud ballistic missiles from Damascus and Israel Defense Minister Ehud Barak reportedly showed satellite imagery of the missiles in Lebanon to U.S. President Barack Obama during a recent visit to Washington.  It is now being reported later this week Israel Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is scheduled to arrive in Washington accompanied by President Shimon Peres and Defense Minister Barak. 

rfn=Tokyo -  With the situation in and around the Persian Gulf becoming inreasingly immediate and crisis oriented is probably the reason IRNA is reporting Iran Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki arrived in Tokyo Sunday afternoon to meet Japan Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada.  I suspect this is another futile attempt by Teheran to reassure industrial concerns in Japan they will never have any difficulty maintaining access to oil from the Persian Gulf.  Of all the industrialized nations Japan requires access to the Gulf more than any other and the reason Japan's government changed its foreign policy to offensive in late 2004 was due to an announcement by Iran's Oil Minister, Teheran wanted China to become the main importer of Iran's oil instead of Japan.  The Gulf is part of Japan's economic lifeline and they realize Iran is going to carry out its threat to attack international shipping as a way of inflicting economic hardship on the West.  Tokyo will declare war right aftter those attacks begin.

Japan may begin with an ultimatum which is why it will be an enormous mistake for Teheran to do so especially since Iran does not have to attack international shipping in order to make a powerful response, but there are those in Teheran who want to show off what they can now do.  What they will actually end up doing is creating more enemies.  Teheran will use its attempt to control the Persian Gulf in order to become the main voice in the global energy market.

rfn=Kabul -  "The training we have seen occurs inside Iran with fighters moving inside Iran.  The weapons we have received came from Iran into Afghanistan."  Asharq al-Awsat/Reuters report that was the warning from U.S. General Stanley McChrystal based inside Afghanistan as Taliban attacks increased in the past week either against NATO or the Afghanistan Police/Army.  General McChrystal added NATO was attempting to prevent more equipment and figthers from Iran entering the country but he did not say what those measures were.  In March the Pentagon Chariman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Michael Mullen, stated Iran was sending more trained Taliban members to Kandahar, the largest city in the south and the Taliban's most important urban base. 

Teheran has been preparing the Taliban to counter NATO's summer offensive there and I suspect Iran will enter the war directly in an attempt to prevent NATO from using its bases in Afghanistan for an attack on Iran.  Teheran wants to prevent any combined Allied air offensive and every NATO base in Afghanistan and every Pentagon base in Iraq-Persian Gulf are within range of Iran's ballistic missiles.  Iran will also have Hezbollah-Syria keep Israel busy on its Northern Front.

night watch:  rfn=PYONGYANG -  The United Nations Security Council (UNSC), in a closed door Thursday session, studied the findings in a 47 page special report on the continued exports by the North Korea government on nuclear/ballistic missile technology to Iran-Syria.  Haaretz reports the study was obtained by AP and includes a lenghty annex document and was compiled by experts from: Britain-US-Japan-Russia-France-China-South Korea.  It details North Korea's use of multiple intermediaries, shell companies and criminal networks, the same methods Iran has employed to evade sanctions.  Sanctions were applied by the United Nations after North Korea conducted nuclear test explosions in 2006 and 2009.  In order to disguise the weapons cargo false descriptions are used, mislabeling of contents of shipping containers, falsifying the manifest and information about origin and destination of the material.  It was also noted 112 member states of the UN, out of 192 have not fully supported the international sanction effort.

One of the cases mentioned was the interception of a chartered jet in Thailand in December that was carrying 35 tons of conventional weapons including North Korean surface to air missiles.  The jet was owned by a company in the UAE, registered in Georgia, leased to a shell company registered in New Zealand and then chartered to another company in Hong Kong.  Pyongyang also ships component kits of weapon systems to be assembled overseas.  One instance involved a seizure of equipment at the harbor in Durban, South Africa as scores of North Korean technicians were waiting in the Republic of Congo to assemble it and send it on to either Iran-Syria and possibly from there to Hezbollah in Lebanon.  Recently an Israel defense official stated Hezbollah now has more rockets-missiles than most governments.

At Thursday's closed door session it was recommended there should be more monitoring of aircraft leaving North Korea because Pyongyang has been known to ship sensitive equipment by air.  The study also concluded North Korea "has continued to provide missiles, components and technology to certain countries including Iran and Syria...(and) has provided assistance for a nuclear program in Syria, including the design and construction of a thermal reactor at Dair Alzour."  September 6, 2007 the Israel Air Force (IAF) destroyed a plutonium reactor North Korean technicians helped Syria to construct with financing from Teheran.  A smiliar pre-emptive attack by the IAF could begin the expanded regional war Teheran-Damascus have been years in preparing.

This is why I have mentioned it was Washington-Seoul that staged the March 26 sinking of the Cheonan in order to justify an attack on the North to finally end Pyongyang's weapons/technology exports.

rfn=Adra -  "Hezbollah is allowed to operate this site freely.  They often move the arms in bad weather when Israeli satellites are unable to track them."  INN reports that was an excerpt taken from an article in the Times of London on the military complex the Syria government has placed at the disposal of Hezbollah at Adra near Damascus.  The article contained satellite photos and mentioned the complex contains living quarters, storage facilities and a fleet of trucks.  A Western diplomat even remarked when Syria President Bashar al-Assad denies any knowledge of this he is "flat out lying" as has been the case during President Assad's many meetings with the Chairman of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Senator John Kerry.  Ynet news agency reports the Times article stated Israel may send a "calibrated signal" by attacking the complex.

rfn=Ramadi -  "There are many police officers and local officials cooperating with al-Qaeda.  Their aim is to target innocent people those who fought al-Qaeda before and to stop them from returning to work."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the statement from Ali Khalaf a former Lieutenant-Colonel with the Iraq police based in Ramadi, 60 miles west of Baghdad.  Colonel Khalaf survived an assassination attempt on his life Monday.  At 10 am he was called back to work after eight months, having been trained by the U.S. in 2007 after he and members of his community decided to support the fight against al-Qaeda.  Khalaf was given the rank of Lieutenant-Colonel but was released by officers who had served under Saddam Hussein and it has been known, ever since Saddam's removal in 2003, some of them were now working with Teheran.  When Khalaf was called back to work he then received this text message on his cell phone, "Our swords are thirsty for your blood." 

Monday at 1:45 pm an explosion, remotely detonated, destroyed his kitchen wall and killed his 20 year old nephew also a police officer, then fifteen minutes later a device attached to his washing machine went off.  Since then he has obtained passports for he and his family to leave Iraq since so many in the police are working with Teheran which is why it is known that is the only way massive explosions can take place in areas with tight security.  February, Teheran began to use al-Qaeda for targeted cold blooded assassinations of government officials, tribal leaders and police, anyone or institution which has the potential of challenging Teheran's control over the country.  More than 100 people have been killed to date by gunmen using homemade silencers and bombs magentically attached to the underside of vehicles or fastened with adhesives.  Monday a police officer in Samarra, 60 miles northeast of the capital, was sentenced to 51 years for providing information to al-Qaeda.  Iraq now has 400,000 policemen, and 250,000 in the army-air force-navy and every service contains personnel with divided loyalties.

night watch:  rfn=KERMAN - "Russian leaders should not create a situation that makes Iran's people place Russia in the ranks of their enemies."  PressTV/Fars news agency report those were just some of the angry remarks by Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad speaking at an outdoor rally in the city of Kerman in south-central Iran.  President Ahmadinejad was reacting to statements by Russia President Dmitry Medvedev on his support for new United Nations Security Council sanctions against Iran in a vote likely to take place next month.  "Today it has become difficult for us to explain Medvedev's behavior to the Iranian nation.  The people don't know whether they are our friends or are after something else.  If I were the Russian President when taking decisions on subjects related to the great Iranian nation I would think things through more."  At a news conference in Moscow Hurriyet report Russia Foreign Ministern Sergei Lavrov responded, "This statement is being interpreted as emotional."

Swissinfo/Reuters report Foreign Minister Lavrov elaborated further on the disappointments the Kremlin has experienced due to Teheran never making any serious effort to resolve the dispute over its uranium enrichment to weapons grade levels, "To our great regret, during years--not just months--Iran's response to these efforts has been unsatisfactory, mildly speaking."  Less mildly speaking was Sergei Prikhodko, senior foreign policy adivsor to the Kremlin, "No one has ever managed to preserve one's authority with political demagoguery.  I am convinced the thousand year history of Iran itself is evidence of this.  The Russian Federation is governed by its own long-term state interests: its position is Russian; it reflects the interests of all the peoples of greater Russia and so it can be neither pro-American nor pro-Iranian."

rfn=Stavropol -  The reason why Russia/Iran relations have reached a new historic low, after numerous wars between Tsarist Russia/Persia over regions of Central Asia, is because Moscow/Teheran have been fighting for control over the resources of the Caucasus since 1994 when Chechnya erupted.  And yesterday evening, at 6:45 pm, Xinhua reports, a bomb went off in the city of Stavropol on the edge of the Northern Caucasus which killed seven people and injured forty.  Al Jazeera reports the explosion took place near a cafe where a Chechen dance group was scheduled to preform and the group is close to Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov.  Though heavy fighting in the region, a cross roads of energy pipelines, has ended, attacks occur almost daily in Chechnya-Ingushetia-Dagestan and it is no secret the Muslim groups and criminal networks involved are supported by Teheran.

rfn=Tbilisi -  Russia has initially responded by refusing to complete Iran's nuclear facility at Bushehr on the Persian Gulf Moscow was contracted to build in 1995.  And for some reason Iran's leadership may not have been able to figure out why the Kremlin refuses to finish it and is now delaying delivery of the advanced anti-aircraft/anti-missile system S-300.  Because it can be used to target Russian bombers that will be attacking Iran's support network not only for Islamic militants but also for the Georgia government in Tbilisi in the South Cacuasus which Teheran has been supporting for the past several years since most fighting in the north has ended.  Hurriyet/AFP report last week Georgia Deputy Foreign Minister Nino Kalandadze hosted the spokesman for Iran's Foreign Ministery Ramin Mehmanparast and announced a "new stage" in Georgia-Iran relations as Teheran continues to disrupt Russia's ability to export oil-gas to Europe especially to the industrial concerns based in Germany.

It was those concerns which forced Berlin, the main historical purchaser of Russia's raw materials, to have former KGB Colonel Vladimir Putin join the Russia government of Boris Yeltsin in 1999 and end the depositing of Russia's budget into Switzerland.  And it was probably Berlin who had former U.S. Secretary of State Dr. Henry Kissinger arrive in Moscow, April 2007, to co-chair the Strategic Working Group (SWG) with former Russia Premier Yevgeny Primakov.  This is the highest level of Allied decision making and resource access and control is their priority which means Teheran will soon realize the main threat to them is not the aircraft from U.S. aircraft carriers or bombers from Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.  Ardabil is the Iranian city near the Caspian sea and is just twenty miles from the border with Azerbaijan and is probably a transit point for supplies and equipment from Iran to Georgia.

night watch:  rfn=PYONGYANG -  "Should the South side's intrusions into the territorial waters of our side continue, the DPRK (North Korea) will put into force practical military measures to defend its waters as it had already clarified and the South side will be held fully accountable for all ensuing consequences."  Xinhua reports that was the warning delivered by the head of the North Korea delegation to military working talks between the two countries.  The warning continued, "Dozens of South Korean warships intruded the territorial waters of the North side from May 14 to 24.  This is a deliberate provocative act aimed to spark off another military conflict."  Hurriyet reports North Korea has placed its military on combat alert.  According to the Seoul based North Korea Intellectuals Solidarity, citing sources in the North, the order was read by General O Kuk Ryol and broadcast by loudspeakers all over the country right after the international team of investigators supported Seoul's position that it was North Korea which sunk the South Korea corvette Cheonan March 26.

Al Jazeera reports Monday evening South Korea began to broadcast a four hour FM program into the North titled Voice of Freedom.  A spokesman explained to AFP the program, repeated three times, included messages on freedom and democracy from a military anchorwoman, an all girl South Korean band praising freedom of choice and sharp comments on how obesity is a problem in the South instead of hunger, messages and statements obviously intended to insult Pyongyang.  Then on Tuesday South Korean engineers began constructing eleven large electric signboards on the border facing the North daring them to be attacked as Pyongyang has threatened to do.  The South has already begun naval maneuvers off its West Coast near Taen county.

rfn=Pentagon -  WebIndia123/BBC are reporting the Pentagon now has more troops, 94,000 in Afghanistan than it has in Iraq-92,000.  Teheran is of course aware of this and realizes they could be used in a limited ground offensive against Iran.  And that is probably why Xinhua/Fars news agency are now reporting Iran's Defense Ministry began new maneuvers, ground maneuvers with air support designated "Beit-a-moqaddas 22" in the central province of Isfahan.  The latest exercises, the third within a month, began on Monday and today ground forces, with air support destroyed enemy bunkers and fortified positions as they were supplied by air units.  There were also drills involving tactics and positioning troops to prevent enemy ground invasions.

When Teheran sees North Korea attacked, ending its weapons exports to Iran-Syria, Teheran will probably immediately respond by increasing the fighting in Iraq-Afghanistan and against Israel and then enter the fighting in Iraq-Afghanistan directly as an attempt to prevent combined Allied operations against them.

night watch:  rfn=SEOUL -  "North Korea's goal is to instigate division and conflict.  It is now time for the North Korean regime to change."  Swissinfo/Reuters report those were just some of the policy statements by South Korea President Lee Myung-bak speaking in a nationally televised address from a war memorial as he announced some of the punitive measures Seoul has begun to take with the full support of Washington-Tokyo-Moscow.  And behind the scenes support from Beijing which realizes Allied governments are serious in finally ending Pyongyang's support for the nuclear ballistic missile programs in Iran-Syria.  Dawn/AFP reports President Myung-bak continued to warn, "From now on (South) Korea will not tolerate any provocative acts by the North and will maintain the principle of proactive deterrence.  If our territorial waters, airspace or territory are violated, we will immediately exercise our right of self defense."

The President then cited past indirect attacks on the South by Pyongyang in a 1983 bomb attack on the South Korean delegation to Yangon, Burma (Myanmar) which targeted South Korea's President and the downing of a South Korean airliner in 1987, "But now things are different.  North Korea will pay a price corresponding to its provocative acts."  What is different is what was mentioned earlier, the North's exports of nuclear/ballistic material which has helped enable Teheran to produce ballistic missiles of very long range, far beyond West Asia (Middle East) and even sent weapons grade plutonium to Syria which Israel bombed in September 2007.  South Korea Defense Minister Kim Tae-young announed Seoul will increase its cooperation with Washington to intercept weapons shipments from the North, engage in anti-submarine drills and even resume anti-North Korean broadcasts from loudspeakers on the border.  Pyongyang has threatened to fire on the speakers.

But I suspect Washington-Seoul have already arranged another provocation, to be blamed on the North, as they arranged the March 26 sinking of the Cheonan, in order to justify a major offensive whose main feature will be air attacks on government buildings and North Korea's plutonium reactor at Yongbyon.  A high level North Korean defector, who knows Kim Jong-Il personally, stated in a Wall Street Journal interview in 2003 North Korea has not maintained its military very well and a lot of its troops are demoralized.  President Myung-bak also announced commercial vessels from the North will be forced to use a longer sea route to North Korean ports.  And RIA quoted the Russia business publication Kommersant which printed this statement from the South Korea Navy, "New underwater missiles are one of the main kinds of weaponry that can bring us victory in the anti-submarine battles of the future."  This statement was used to announce the mass production of the Red Shark missile which is fired vertically from destroyers and has a range of 12 miles (20 km).

rfn=Tel Aviv -  Ynet News Agency reports Israel Defense Minister Ehud Barak received Egypt Minister of Intelligence General Omar Suleiman in Tel Aviv Monday.  Both officials expressed their mutual concern over "regional challenges" which is of course Islamic extremism directed by Teheran-Damascus at both Egypt-Israel.  The adminstration of Egypt President Hosni Mubarak, and its close relations with the West, is confronting an enormously unstable domestic situation due to massive poverty and a growing secular opposition that is more of a threat than the religious opposition Muslim Brotherhood which has maintained close relations with the Palestinian militant group Hamas in the Gaza Strip.  Defense Minister Barak may not realize it but he has received the leading secular opposition figure, General Suleiman who was mentioned early last year, in an Arab and Israeli publication, is the favorite candidate to replace Mubarak.  The publication stated 20 million young Egyptians had been conducting an active internet campaign which wants neither Jamal, Mubarak's son, or the Muslim Brotherhood to succeed Mubarak, they want Suleiman.

General Suleiman is probably better connected to Egypt's security and military than President Mubarak though the latter is the former head of Egypt's Air Force.  But I suspect Suleiman is really in Tel Aviv to obtain any information Jerusalem has on Hamas since the religious opposition in Egypt is also a threat to Suleiman and his supporters.  In the meantime Ynet is also reporting relations between Cairo and the Hamas government in Gaza City continue to take a turn for the worse after Hamas security arrested an Egyptian officer who had infiltrated into Gaza to obtain information.  And Hamas Interior Minister Fathi Hamad issued this statement concerning Palestinian activists arrested in Egypt who are tortured and killed in prison through electric shocks and prolonged hangings, "I call on Egypt to immediately relase them.  What Egypt does is in contradiction with the principles of Islam and good neighborliness.  Egypt must probe the occupation (Israel) and how it manages to infiltrate the Palestinians and Egyptian territories and stand on the Palestinian side."

But those loyal to Mubarak have no intention whatsoever of doing so since Islamic radicals assassinated Mubarak's predecessor, Anwar al-Sadat in October 1981 and those who did so were wearing army uniforms.  The assassins cited the Ayatollah Khomeini, who led the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, as their inspiration and Teheran, along with Damascus, are the main regional supporters of Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups.  It was Teheran that ordered Hamas to force open the Rafah Terminal on the Gaza/Egypt border with fifteen explosions in January 2008 which threatened Mubarak's control over the Sinai peninsula and Suez Canal.  Relations between the Egyptian government and Palestinians have become so hateful a Palestinian fisherman was recently clubbed and beaten to death after his boat was rammed by an Egyptian vessel and earlier this year there were exchanges of fire between Palestinian gunmen and Egyptian security at Rafah.  And just before Israel began its Operation Cast Lead offensive into Gaza, Dec. 27, 2008-Jan. 18, 2009, both Damascus-Teheran openly sponsored anti-Egypt/anti-Mubarak demonstrations.

General Suleiman has been at the center of negotiations between Hamas/Cairo and even between Hamas/Jerusalem and may have found some Hamas officials he can work with in order to reduce the opposition from Palestinian militants.  But before Mubarak is overthrown, he will not go down quietly and will declare war, not only on Hamas, after it attacks the Rafah Terminal again, but also on Iran.  Teheran is much more interested in the economic potential of controlling the Suez Canal than with the salt in the Dead Sea.  The outlandish statements Iran's leadership had President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad make about Israel was just a distraction a publicity smokescreen.

night watch:  rfn=KHRISNA GHATI -  "The exchange of fire is on."  WebIndia123/IANS report that was the announcement by a spokesman for India's army as Pakistan/India troops exchange fire for the fourth time this month and as Pakistan troops use mortars for the first time since the 2003 ceasefire.  The spokesman continued, "Pakistan troops opened small arms fire at 9:am.  The Indian Army retaliated but soon Pakistan troops started firing rockets.  Now they have started firing 30 mm mortars."  The Indian positions targeted have been the Kranti-Kirpan posts in the Krishna Ghati sector of the Mendhar area in Poonch district 120 miles (200 km) north of Jammu.  The posts are manned by the India unit 17 Mahar and so far one Indian soldier has been injured and the action seems to be ongoing with Pakistan firing a mortar round every five to fifteen minutes.  This is the fourth time this month when an exchange of fire has taken place, the previous three being on the 1st, 6 and 8.

I suspect this is part of the offensive Action Plan of General Pervez Musharraf which he presented to Teheran Feb. 2007 when he was head of state conducting a nine nation tour.  The action designed may be intended to force India to not only retaliate but to also use its hot pursuit policy against Islamic militants that are poised to infiltrate during this latest action.  India intelligence has recently estimated there are 400 militants, at bases inside Pakistan, waiting to cross into India and Delhi has warned it will eventually attack the more than forty bases inside Pakistan that are used to train them.  Though a ceasfire has been the official policy between Islamabad/Delhi since 2003, unofficially it was used by both governments to complete preparations for the next full scale war and Pakistan also waited for Teheran to be ready to enter.  

China also has territorial disputes with India which is why Beijing revived its claim over the northeast India state of Arunachal Pradesh in 2006, the area Beijing invaded for one month in October 1962 during the dry season that year.  Last year India positioned two more army divisions in its northeast and constructed more airstrips.  Beijing has also been accused of having its units in China's part of Kashmir conduct aggressive patrolling by repeatedly crossing into Indian territory.  Beijing-Islamabad established a joint military command several years ago and have maintained strategic relations since 1951.

rfn=Banja Luka -  "Today we do not settle our difficulities that way, not here in Bosnia or anywhere else.  It is clear that we are considered a second rate people who only understand the language of the stick.  I reject the politics of force and stick and I am ready to talk about all issues relating to Bosnia-Hercegovina through dialogue and compromise."  Hurriyet/AFP report that was the angry statement by Prime Minister of Republika Sprska (RS) Milorad Dodik based in Banja Luka in Bosnia-Hercegovina in response to threats from the new Foreign Secretary of Britain William Hague that more stick instead of carrot be used against Sarajevo's fractious political leaders.  This is a new level to the long running dispute between the Serbian community in Bosnia, represented by Banja Luka, which has always rejected a strong central government in Sarajevo, Bosnia's capital which is primarily Muslim and was at the center of the fighting that erupted in 1992 which the NATO alliance in Brussels used as their eager excuse to intervene. 

NATO deliberately made the war even worse by attempting to impose an arms embargo against the Muslim government in Sarajevo which made it virtually defenseless against Serbian attacks.  This last rate policy provided Ankara-Teheran with their reasons for entering the war by breaking the embargo and sending Muslim fighters to Bosnia while at the same time, 1992, Teheran established high level diplomatic relations with the six new countries that emerged from the divided Yugoslavia including Croatia in Zagreb.  There is also a Croatian community represented in Sarajevo in what is supposed to be a revolving Presidency since 1995 composed of Muslim, Serbian and Croatian representatives.  And it is Prime Minister Dodik which has led the three communities in rejecting Brussels, the base of NATO and the European Union (EU), and its demand for a strong central government in Sarajevo which the Serbs feel will threaten their control over their own communities.  And the Bosnian Serbs here were the victims of NATO's air campaign in 1994, five years before NATO proudly conducted a 78 day air campaign against the rest of Serbia in 1999.

But since 1999 the Serbia government in Belgrade has been rearmed by Moscow and in 2006 Belgrade signed security agreements with Athens-Teheran and even more recently with Lisbon.  I have always assumed the best chance for new fighting in this regional theatre will erupt between Kosovo/Serbia over the former's declaration of independence in 2008, but Foreign Secretary Hague may have unwittingly begun to set the stage for new conflict instead further north as he and the EU/NATO attempt to enforce their regressive vision on the former Yugoslavia for another show of force against a region most European governments still love to hate, the Balkans, the flashpoint for the First World War 1914-18.  And as soon as Brussels, with a lot of encouragement from London-Paris-Berlin, attempted to enforce the highly irresponsible policy of recognizing the divided state of Yugoslavia, news from this region began to sound like the 19th century.

rfn=Damascus -  Ynet News Agency is reporting U.S. Senator John Kerry arrived in Damascus Saturday night, the fifth visit for the Senator and his third since the administration of President Barack Obama.  The current visit has been officially described by Washington as merely a "follow up" to Senatro Kerry's previous visits but the real reason is this is the eve of a major regional war, long prepared by Teheran-Damascus and with Jerusalem concentrating on the Syrian part of Israel's Northern Front.  Kerry may be there to examine the current state of mind of Syria President Bashar al-Assad who is extremely proud and ecstatic of Damascus' close military relations with Teheran as the West realizes the war will engulf the 12,000 European troops in south Lebanon.

night watch:  rfn=KHALIS -  "We are doing an investigation.  We want to know how that vehicle reached this place.  Not all vehicles are allowed in this area."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was an Iraq police official in the town of Khalis in the central province of Diyala which stretches from eastern Baghad to Iran's border.  That has been the question ever since Teheran began this suicide/vehicle bomb offensive which began last August that first hit Iraq government buildings in the highly secure International Green Zone.  The only way car/truck bombs can continue to penetrate the security is only due to cooperation from security personnel, even high ranking officers, who are working with Teheran.  This particular vehicle was a minivan in the market area of Khalis where vehicles require a special permit to enter.  Iran timed the explosion for near sunset Friday when the market was crowded with people and latest reports from Xinhua now say the death toll is 39 with 69 wounded though some reports have said 80 were injured.

The minivan was positioned near a cafe just steps away from police headquarters of a rapid reaction unit.  More than a dozen shops were destroyed.  This is not the first attack in Khalis which was hit by another explosion in March that killed nearly sixty people.  I suspect Teheran wants to maintain instability in this border province to eventually justify direct intervention when war between Iran and the West become more obvious.

rfn=Riyadh -  More information is being released on Riyadh's cooperation with Teheran in encouraging attacks on the occupation in Iraq.  Several years ago the Los Angeles Times reported most of the foreign Muslim fighters in Iraq came from Saudi Arabia, which is probably why the last two times U.S. Vice-President Dick Cheney visited Riyadh the news actually showed King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz laughing at Cheney.  This is why Washington/Riyadh no longer have the warm friendly meetings they used to have for more than a generation.  Regular readers of this site know I have often written no Muslim government in the region supported the U.S. led occupation and the Pentagon bases but some of the governments were just more obvious in their opposition to Washington than others, Teheran-Damascus for instance.

And now today, PressTV and Iraq's Baratha news agency report King Abdullah is severely criticizing the leaking of a secret document by 37 members of Saudi Arabia's intelligence service which outlined the money, weapons and explosives Saudi officials have been sending to al-Qaeda in Iraq.  This is why Riyadh was never worried about Iran and its influence in the region since Saudi Arabia-Iran work in tandem to remove the West's military presence from the entire region.  Riyadh-Teheran hold the same regional view and some of the most stern criticism of Washington's and NATO's mistakes in Iraq-Afghanistan have come from senior Saudi officials and very publicly.

rfn=Beirut -  Haaretz/News Agencies report Lebanon Prime Minister Saad Hariri is due to arrive in Washington Monday and even published reports admit Prime Minister Hariri and U.S. President Barack Obama have two entirely different concerns.  Hariri will want to discuss Israel making more attempts to achieve peace with the Palestinian community while President Obama will want to know more about the Lebanese goverment's reasons for supporting the massive arms shipments Hezbollah has been receiving from Syria-Iran including the Scud ballistic missiles.  Hariri will arrive in Washington right after his weekend tour of West Asia (Mid-East) capitals:  Cairo-Amman-Riyadh-Damascus and even a visit to Istanbul where he met Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu which are leading the regional effort to explain Iran's nuclear program to the West as if the West just found out about it the day before yesterday.

Turkish news service Hurriyet even reported today Foreign Minister Davutoglu now sees himself as a nuclear expert.  But in the meantime Hariri would perhaps also like to see how effective Iran's war preparations have been and not just against Israel but also in attacking the 12,000 European troops in south Lebanon.  I doubt if the semblance of peace in the region will last long after Hariri returns to Beirut.

night watch:  rfn=KIBBUTZ NIRIM -  A scouting unit of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) on Friday afternoon intercepted and killed two Palestinian gunmen who attempted to infiltrate into Israel, most likely in another attempt to capture an IDF soldier as in June 2006.  Jerusalem Post reports the action took place near Kibbutz Nirim which Xinhua reports is near the Kessufim border crossing northeast of the south Gaza city of Khan Younis.  Reports are this action has not yet ended as IDF units, including helicopters were called and both sides are now exchanging mortar fire.  This is similar to how heavy fighting began in 2006 with Hamas capturing an Israeli soldier in late June which prompted an IDF offensive into Gaza then three weeks later Teheran had Hezbollah stage an ambush across the Lebanon/Israel border with Israel responding by invading Lebanon.  What prevented a full scale regional war was Iran had not yet completed preparations to enter it but Teheran studied the conflict, even had advisers in the field with Hezbollah and also studied the regional/international reponse.

Also on Friday a new Palestinian militant unit, the Brigades of Ansar al-Islam, an al-Qaeda branch, took responsibility for the Friday rocket attack from northern Gaza at the city of Ashkelon on the Mediterranean where Israel's largest oil refinery is based.  The rocket was not even a Qassam but a homemade Khaibar rocket which fell into open area but it still prompted air strikes from the Israel Air Force (IAF) on the north Gaza city of Beit Hanoun and Khan Younis in the south.  Smuggling tunnels were also attacked by the IAF in some of the heaviest action since Israel's Operation Cast Lead offensive Dec. 27, 2008-Jan. 18, 2009.  Despite Jerusalem's concern over the Scud ballistic missile reports to Hezbollah in Lebanon and the possibility of the IDF conducting a pre-emptive attack on them, Gaza could still be the flashpoint where the expanded regional war begins.  The IDF is conducting drills in the north, near the Lebanon border and Hezbollah has been placed on alert.

rfn=Paris -  Ynet News reports France Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner is scheduled to arrive in Damascus Saturday for a two day visit to the region that will also take him to Beirut.  France Foreign Ministry spokesman Bernard Valero announced Foreign Minister Kouchner will meet Syria President Bashar al-Assad and Foreign Minister Walid Moallem on "all aspects of the situation in the region."  That of course revolves around Teheran's preparations to increase fighting as its relations with the West continues to deteriorate and Damascus has made no secret of its close military relations with Iran's military command.  France is a major contributor to the 12,000 European troops in south Lebanon serving in UNIFIL and Damascus-Teheran view them as Paris' way of staking its claim over Lebanon which France created out of Syria in 1943 to retain some influence in the region.

Targeting Beirut, Valero stated Kouchner will stress "France's commitment to stability in the region and its willingness to contribute to it" in his confrontational meetings with Lebanon President General Michel Suleiman and Prime Minister Saad Hariri.  But, as in Damascus, Lebanon's leaders have openly expressed their support for Hezbollah, which they are aware is controlled from Teheran, and nor do General Suleiman and Prime Minister Hariri support the presence of European troops in the south which of course they view as a violation of Lebanon's sovereignty.  This is a classic case of different interpretations of stability and who can enforce their view of it.  Paris and governments in the West believe their troops in the region promote stability while Teheran and its regional axis partners believe troops from the West cause the instability.  There is no room for agreement or diplomatic solution.

rfn=Seoul -  "The sinking of the Cheonan was a surprise attack by the North at a late hour when the people were taking a good rest after a day's work."  Xinhua reports that was the press release by the office of South Korea President Lee Myung-bak during his Friday emergency meeting of South Korea's National Security Council (NSC).  The President called the March 26 incident a "military provocation" and a violation of the 1953 Korean Armistice Agreement.  He then said the government must remain cautious when taking any countermeasures which have yet too be mentioned publicly.  But I suspect Myung-bak and his NSC are aware it was not an attack by the North but that it was staged by Washington-Seoul to begin justifications for an attack on the North and finally end its nuclear/ballistic missile technology exports to Iran-Syria.  Though publicly caution is the policy and Seoul will present its official report to the United Nations on Monday, a second provocation by the North has probably been planned by Washington-Seoul. 

The U.S.-South Korea have raised the alert level for their units.  A high level North Korea defector stated several years ago, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, that Pyongyang has not maintained its military units very well and a lot of its troops were demoralized.

night watch:  rfn=SEOUL -  "There is no other plausible explanation."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the conclusion of the investigative report on the March 26 sinking of the South Korea corvette Cheonan, an investigation which unequivocally accuses the North Korea government.  The members of the investigation came from Britain, U.S., Australia, Sweden and South Korea which concluded there were North Korean submarines around at the time of the sinking.  London-Washington have already stated their complete support for the report which United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called deeply troubling.  And Tokyo has announced any intention to conduct negotiations on aid to Pyongyang is now unthinkable. 

South Korea President Lee Myung-bak warned, "We will be taking firm, responsive measures against the North, and through international cooperation, we have to make the North admit its wrongdoing and come back as a responsible member of the international community."  President Myung-bak was speaking by phone to Australia Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and stated Seoul is not planning any retaliatory strike but will call for more economic sanctions which has resulted in this reponse from North Korea's Defense Commission, "Our army and people will promptly react to any 'punishment' and retaliation and to any 'sanction' infringing upon our state interests with various forms of tough measures including all-out war."

rfn=Washington -  "This act of aggression is one more instance of North Korea's unacceptable behavior and defiance of international law."  The New York Times reports that was the annoucement released by the White House in what is now being called the greatest act of aggression and provocation on the peninsula since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War.  And the reason a new war seems inevitable is partly because there is not much economic pressure South Korea, Japan can apply since they have so many restrictions on trade with North Korea anyway.  Beijing does not want to apply any since that would create a humanitarian disaster on its border but I suspect China's government informed North Korea leader Kim Jong-Il earlier this month Pyongyang is on its own when the shooting gets started.  And that Beijing will help the North pick up the pieces afterward.  As I said at the time of the March 26 incident this is quite possibly staged by Washington-Seoul to justify an attack on the North to finally end its support for Iran-Syria's nuclear and ballistic missile programs.  North Korea is also known for exporting chemical weapons.  And since there is no way to convince the military-industrial leadership of the North to end its weapons/technological exports peacefully then there will probably be another provocation staged by Washington-Seoul that will justify offensive war against the North. 

But for the moment South Korea will present this report and its case to the United Nations on Monday and this weekend 200 U.S. officials will arrive in Beijing to coordinate their responses with China's leadership to war on the Korean peninsula and the regional situation afterward.  Several years ago a high level North Korean defector stated, in a Wall Street Journal interview, that its military had not been well maintained and a lot of the North's units were demoralized so I estimate Pyongyang could perhaps hold out for a month.  There could be troop defections to the South and refugees into China.  Events seemed to have been timed for this annual Washington-Beijing Strategic and Economic Dialogue with the U.S. being represented by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner and the commander of U.S. Pacific Command Admiral Robert F. Willard.  Secretary of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebelius will also be in attendance.

rfn=Teheran -  Haaretz/AP/AFP are reporting a member of Iran's Parliament is already warning if sanctions are applied against Iran, Teheran will cancel the arrangement it just made with Brazil-Turkey Tuesday in which Iran claimed it will send low enriched uranium to Turkey.  News reports all over international media indicated the West-Russia were not impressed since Iran's uranium enrichment too weapons grade levels continues and since Turkey has no nuclear industry of its own it has no facilities to store uranium.  But what will be especially significant is Teheran's response to the Allied air offensive against North Korea which is an example of the air offensive the Pentagon has been planning against Iran by using the Allied air/naval base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.  And with the sense of urgency the Allies are operating under the offensive against North Korea could be next month.  Teheran could respond by increasing the fighting in Iraq-Afghanistan and against Israel in a desperate attempt to disrupt combined operations against Iran's nuclear facilities.

rfn=Berlin -  German Customs Police have detained German businessmen at a German airport on suspicion they were involved in purchasing "dual use" technology to be exported to Iran's nuclear facility at Bushehr on the Persian Gulf.  Ynet News/Reuters report the number of men arrested was not released and they were in violation of a ban on the export of technology that can be used for Iran's nuclear weapons production.  Russia was contracted by Teheran to construct the Bushehr facility in 1995 and most of it is completed but Moscow refuses to finish it because Russia/Iran have been fighting for control over the resources of the Caucasus since 1994.  And Berlin leads the industrial concerns in the West that have long used Russia to export raw materials to Germany and Europe from there.

night watch:  rfn=DUSHANBE -  Iran's leadership have attempted to dismiss the new sanctions resolution Washington circulated Tuesday in order to strengthen existing measures against Iran's nuclear/ballistic missile programs, what U.S. Ambassador Susan Rice called "greater teeth" to previous sanctions.  Swissinfo/Reuters report when a Reuters reported asked Iran Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, in Dushanbe, Tajikistan about the latest sanctions Mottaki replied, "Are you sure?"  When he was told the new resolution was already circulating he said "Don't take it seriously" and walked away.  This is a classic example of someone falling for his own propaganda.  Foreign Minister Mottaki was at the center of the staging of the phony fuel transfer agreement he engineered with Turkey-Brazil and I think Mottaki believed it was a major coup which would convince the West-Russia that Iran was in complete compliance with the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna.

But the same day Teheran showed off its media event Washington began circulating a new sanctions resolution supported by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council Russia-Britain-France-US, including China, and it also had the full support of Germany.  Jerusalem Post/AP report the new resolution was the result of U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spending hours on the phone with Russia Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in order to agree on the final text.  Though the resolution is not as strong as the Western governments wanted, which would traget Iran's energy industry, the resolution does state the "potential connection" between Iranian energy reserves and financing for the country's nuclear program.  And in the preamble to the resolution it calls on all 192 UN member states to "exercise vigilance" on Iranian financial institutions, including the Central Bank, engaged in financial transactions supporting Iran's nuclear/ballistic missile weapons systems.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps are the resolution's main target since they control companies directly involved in Iran's advanced weaponry including nuclear/ballistic missile technology.  The Guards have established an international network to circumvent any sanctions effort and this resolution would freeze the assets of any company controlled by the Guards involved in nuclear weaponry and ballistic missiles.  The resolution, acquired by Associated Press:

Bans Iranian investment in such sensitive areas related to nuclear activities abroad as uranium mining.

Prohibit the sale of eight categories of heavy weapons including attack helicopters, warships, missiles and battle tanks.

Ban Iran from engaging in any activity related to ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear weapons and order states to "take all necessary measures to prevent the transfer of technology and technical assistance to Iran related to such activities."

Secretary Clinton announced the resolution has been circulated to the ten non-permanent members of the Security Council, including to Brazil-Turkey and she is confident the resolution will receive the nine votes needed, out of the fifteen Security Council membership, in order to pass and become international law.  Though Ambassador Rice has stated Washington considers the resolution to be "urgent" no date has been given as to when the vote will take place.  The last resolution was passed March 2008 and it targeted Iranian companies involved in proliferation of nuclear/ballistic missile technology, Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines.  Inspections were called for then but this latest resolution now calls on international cooperation to intercept these activities which means more confrontation between Iran and the West-Russia which will lead the combined effort.

And that is when this diplomatic war becomes a shooting war.  In 2008 Iran was still conducting its satellite tests to produce ballistic missiles of very long range.  Those tests have since been completed which is why last September the G20 Summit in Pittsburgh was interrupted by the annoucement made by three heads of state, President Barack Obama-U.S., Prime Minister Gordon Brown-Britain, France President Nicolas Sarkozy on Iran's nuclear facility at Qom south of Teheran.  The real concern is over the range of Iran's missiles which is why the Pentagon began to ship hundreds of bunker bombs to its air/naval base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean earlier this year.  Russia's military response is being prepared and directed by the Kissinger-Primakov Strategic Working Group.

rfn=Berlin -  At the center of the Allied effort and the main military link between the West-Russia is Germany.  And as an expression of Berlin's serious concerns on these latest developments Haaretz/DPA report German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle will began a tour of West Asia (Middle East ) capitals May 21 when he leaves Berlin for Beirut.  May 22 Foreign Minister Westerwelle will meet (confront) Lebanon President General Michel Suleiman and Prime Minister Saad Hariri and discuss the situation in Lebanon's south where Germany has units serving with the 12,000 European troops under UNIFIL (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon).  Beirut has not only openly supported closer military relations with Hezbollah-Damascus but has also eagerly received more weapons from Syria to be used by Hezbollah not only against Israel but also against UNIFIL. 

Westerwelle will also be in Beirut and other capitals to investigate Teheran's direct involvement in the expanded regional war Iran has been preparing.  His next visit will be to Cairo, May 23 to meet President Hosni Mubarak and Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit in order to gauge the amount of instability in Egypt and the effectiveness of the growing opposition to President Mubarak.  It is an opposition that is directly the result of forty percent of the population living in poverty and the close relations Mubarak maintains with the West.  Teheran is a direct supporter of the Egyptian opposition which is headed by Minister of Intelligence General Omar Suleiman.  While in Cairo Westerwelle will also confront Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa who also encourages greater Iranian volvement in regional conflicts. 

From Cairo Westerwelle leaves for Amman, Jordan to meet King Abdullah to listen to the latest warnings from His Majesty not only on increased conflict but also on the aftermath.  Then on the 24th Westerwelle arrives in Damascus to confront the regional head of state with the closest relations to Teheran, President Bashar al-Assad and his boyish fascination for war with Israel and the West.  Though President Assad has never made any secret of his country's military connections to Iran he often pleades ignorance, when confronted on this, especially concerning the massive supplies Damascus-Teheran have been shipping to Hezbollah in Lebanon since 2006.  It is quite possible Westerwelle will leave the meeting with Assad hoping Israel has a lot of military successes and will encourage full cooperation between UNIFIL and the Israel Defense Forces.

As Westerwelle is returning to Berlin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel will begin a tour of some of the capitals in the Persian Gulf, Riyadh-Doha-Bahrain-UAE.  Last year Berlin not only increased Germany's defense budget but also its military-strategic relations with Moscow, relations which will remain after Teheran's offensive foreign policy runs its course this year going into the next.

rfn=Red Sea -  Xinhua reports an officer with Egypt's Defense Ministry has announced Egypt has begun naval maneuvers with the U.S. in the Red Sea.  He did not announce how many ships or units were involved but this is in obvious preparation of combined operations against Iran-Syria-Hezbollah.  RFI reported last year Teheran had established a base in Assab, Eritrea in order to conduct an attack on international shipping in the Red Sea.

night watch:  rfn=ISTANBUL -  "The decisions on sanctions will spoil the atmosphere and the escalation of statements may provoke the Iranian public."  Hurriyet reports that was the warning by Turkey Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu speaking to reporters after his press conference in Istanbul.  Foreign Minister Davutoglu was basking in the glow of the enormous publicity he and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan received in providing major support for Teheran staging this deceptive agreement on a nuclear fuel swap as Iran continues to enrich uranium to weapons grade levels.  But that reality seems to have not reached Davutoglu lost in the forest of microphones and blinding flashbulbs.  Teheran is of course aware of his eager and obsessive desire to show Turkey is once again at the center of the world stage, a major player in the international arena which was the theme of Professor Davutoglu's book 'Strategic Depth'.  In his almost comical attempt to explain the value of this deception Davutoglu may have forgetten deception is often at the center of diplomacy and that Teheran has no reason to tell its enemies the truth.

rfn=Washington -  As this site mentioned yesterday Al Jazeera quoted nuclear consultant John Large who stated Turkey has no facilities to even store nuclear fuel from Iran and I can't imagine Teheran flying nuclear fuel to Brazil though they may say they have.  They may as well say they have flown it to the moon. Washington seems to be aware of this and RIA/Xinhua are now reporting U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has announced the U.S.-Russia-China on Tuesday will circulate an agreement and draft resolution on sanctions against Iran to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).  Secretary Clinton was speaking to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and so far there has been no response from Teheran.  Extreme skepticism was also expressed in Jerusalem as Jerusalem Post reports Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu held a special Cabinet meeting with seven Ministers in which they stated the Iran-Brazil-Turkey agreement was just a ruse, a tactic Teheran has employed before.  But the Cabinet felt it could delay any sanctions vote.

rfn=Beijing -  However this statement by Clinton indicates the West-Russia and now perhaps China does not take Iran's media offensive seriously.  Xinhua reports senior officials from the U.S. will arrive in Beijing next week to conduct another Strategic Dialogue with senior officials from China's Central Government and this could be timed for the sanctions issue on Iran's uranium enrichment.  China Foreign Ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu announced, "The two sides will exchange in depth views on a broad range of strategic and long term issues of overall importance that concerns the development of the two countries."  China President Hu Jintao will be represented by Vice-Premier Wang Qishan and State Councilor Dai Bingguo and U.S. President Barack Obama will be represented by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.

Though China's economic connections to Iran amounted to $20 billion last year that is dwarfed by the amount of business China does with the West-Russia.  Direct foreign investment maintains China's active and still growing economy and I suspect the West-Russia have threatened to reduce their economic commitment to China if Beijing continues to support Teheran.  Beijing has been the main supporter of Iran-Pakistan's nuclear/ballistic missile programs because Beijing knew if Iran-Pakistan are successful then three of China's rivals become weaker; the West-India-Russia.  But this is the eve of (f)allout war with Iran's government and Beijing cannot afford to continue to provide unequivocal support to Teheran.

rfn=Kuwait City -  IRNA reports the Speaker of Kuwait's Parliament Jassim al-Kharafi left for Teheran Tuesday at the head of a high level delegation to meet Iran Majlis (Parliament) Speaker Ali Larijani.  This comes right after Teheran completed massive military maneuvers in the Persian Gulf-Strait of Hormuz-Sea of Oman which featured cruise missiles that can target enemy warships and the military bases the Pentagon maintains in Kuwait.  I assume Speaker al-Kharafi will receive a detailed briefing on the attack Teheran has planned in response to the next round of sanctions.  Iran's government has been warning they will not respond as they have in the past to previous economic sanctions.

night watch:  rfn=TEHERAN -  "There is no relation between the swap deal and our enrichment activities."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the terse policy statement by Ali Akbar Salehi the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization after his government staged a media event with leaders from Brazil-Turkey an pretended Iran will send some of its uranium to Turkey.  But Al Jazeera reports governments in the West-Russia have dismissed Teheran's ceremony of its arrangement as John Large, an independent nuclear consultant observed, "Turkey has no facilities whatsoever.  It is not a nuclear country, so it has no enrichment and of course it doesn't really have any storage facilities.  This deal has to be guaranteed in terms of storage security and transportation."  France Foreign Ministry spokesman Bernard Valero warned, "Let us not deceive ourselves, a solution to the (fuel) question, if it happens, will do nothing to settle the problem posed by the Iranian nuclear program."  Russia President Dmitry Medvedev responded, "One question is: will Iran itself enrich uranium?  As far as I understand from officials of that state, such work will be continued."

Britain Junior Foreign Secretary Alistair Burt stated, "Until Iran takes concrete action to meet their obligations, the work (on a UN sanctions resolution) will continue."  News photos showed Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki laughing, almost hysterically, with leaders from Brazil-Turkey as this media, mythical swap deal was announced, expressly intended to pretend Teheran is willing to make agreements and its enemies are not.

rfn=Strait of Hormuz -  "While the press focuses on the Iranian military exercises, uranium enrichment, and long range missile development, the navies of a dozen countries have been relatively and quietly gravitated towards the Persian Gulf."  INN reports that was the announcement by Lenny Ben-David former senior official at Israel's Embassy in Washington.  That is probably because, during the eight day Velayat 89 exercises that ended last Thursday, Iran's navy stopped and search French and Italian ships for "environmental" checks, photographed several Western ships and came close to the carrier USS Eisenhower.  PressTV reports, on Iran's submarine operations, "The submarines had managed to enter the waters of the hypothetical enemy and pass the enemy's linking lines."

Iran Navy commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari admitted the purpose of the maneuvers was intended to demonstrate Iran's ability to control all shipping activities in the Persian Gulf.  Armed Forces commander Major-General Ataollah Salehi announced, "It's past the epoch when America would change the regime in a country by just dispatching a warship.  We have been able to challenge the U.S. not only in the sea but also in all international arenas."  Though Iran openly showcased speed boats that can fire missiles which can destroy ships Israel Aerospace Industries Chairman Yair Shamir expressed more concerned over Iran's cruise missiles which Shamir warned "is an extremely serious danger."  He said the missiles were initially supplied by Ukraine but upgraded by Teheran.

rfn=Rafah -  INN/AP report the Palestinian radical group Hamas, based in the Gaza Strip and in control of it since 2007, has begun destroying dozens of homes in the city of Rafah on the Egypt/Gaza border.  The Palestinian families that live the 30-40 homes have been forced out and I suspect this is being done under Teheran's orders to prepare Hamas again for another major attack on Egypt's control of the Rafah Terminal as in January 2008 when Iran had Hamas force open the terminal with fifteen explosions.

rfn=Cairo -  Ynet is reporting that according to the Egyptian paper al-Mesryoon the administration of Egypt President Hosni Mubarak has decided to sever all relations and communication with the Hamas leadership in the Gaza Strip and abroad, namely Damascus.  The reason given being "the organized media campaign that Hamas officials are waging against Egyptian figures by defaming them in Arab satellite and television stations in Arab media."  The officials named so far are:  Khaled Mashaal, the organization's leader, Mohammed Nazzal another senior official both of whom are based in Damascus and Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh and Mahmoud al-Zahar in the Gaza Strip.

This campaigned is being waged on orders from Teheran in order to undermine the authority of President Mubarak and to diminish him in the eyes of the Arab world.  This supports the growing Egyptian opposition, both religious and larger secular opposition led by Minister of Intelligence General Omar Suleiman.  Unfortunately what makes it easier for Teheran-Hamas is the enormous corruption within Egypt's ruling circles, the draconian measures Mubarak has employed in an attempt to silence the opposition and forty precent of the population living in poverty.  Cairo also maintains close relations with the West.  Just before Israel began its Operation Cast Lead offensive into Gaza, Dec. 27, 2008-Jan. 18, 2009, both Damascus-Teheran staged anti-Egypt/anti-Mubarak demonstrations.

rfn=Rome -  Gulf-Times/AFP are now reporting Egypt President Hosni Mubarak will arrive in Rome on Monday.  Mena news agency reports this is the continuation of a security agreement established between Rome-Cairo in 2008.  That was just two years after the 2006 Rome Conference which was convened after heavy fighting between Palestinian militants-Hezbollah against Israel for one month that summer.  Mubarak will meet Italy President Giorgio Napolitano and Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.

rfn=Brussels -  Russia Ambassador to NATO Dmitry Rogozin has announced there will probably be a meeting of the Russia-NATO Council some time in June.  RIA reports the dates currently being discussed are June 10-11 in Brussels and on the highest levels of every government's Defense Ministry.  But if events concerning Iran dictate the meeting will be held before the end of May and Teheran definitely wants to keep Allied governments on the defensive and in a state of constant crisis.  Moscow's positions is being directed by the Kissinger-Primakov Strategic Working Group.

night watch:  rfn=BAGHDAD -  "After the elections we have seen a new wave of sectarianism which is very dangerous and we have indications that we are heading towards a new peak.  We are just at the beginning, but if the violence continues we are heading towards civil war."  Asharq al-Awsat/AFP report those were some of the warnings expressed by former Iraq Prime Minister Iyad Allawi in speaking to the Spanish paper El Mundo.  This comes after Teheran had al-Qaeda hit ten cities across Iraq with five dozen attacks on Monday that killed 110 people and wounded more than 500.  That was followed by suicide bomb attacks at a football match Friday at Tal Afar 50 miles west of Mosul near the boders with Syira-Turkey.

I don't think Allawi, whose secular coalition led the March 7 election, is surprised at the new wave of violence since he has close realtions with Teheran as do all the political leaders in the country.  And they know peace is not in Teheran's interest nor is it in the interest of any political leader in Iraq or in the interest of Muslim governments in the region since they are all opposed to the foreign troop presence led by Washington.  Since most of the targets have hit the Shia community Teheran may have arranged this in order to provide a reason for Shia militia groups to resurface like the Mahdi Army headed by Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr who has been based in Iran.  Al-Sadr had already issued a call for his group to protect markets and cities before Monday's attacks and during the coming week there could be reports of his units taking up position.

This is one of the "war scenarios" spoken of by Iran Majlis (Parliament) Speaker Ali Larijani last year, scenarios they had planned for the Pentagon which maintains 90,000 troops in Iraq which Washington may intend to use against Iran when fighting becomes more direct.  Teheran may have planned for militia groups to publicly support Iran's accusation that foreign troops are the main reason for instability.  Iran can use the heavier fighting here to reduce the chances for Allied combined operations against Iran's nuclear facilities.

rfn=Riyadh -  "Imagine what will happen once internal strife and fighting escalates."  Gulf-Times/AFP report those were just some of the critical remarks made by Saudi Prince Turki al-Faisal former head of intelligence and former Ambassador to Washington.  His Highness seems to be speaking under the assumption heavy fighting will not occur until the U.S. troop withdrawal next year but recently one of Iran's leading Generals stated no U,S. soldier will leave the region alive when relations become worse.  Prince Faisal even mentioned the very real possibility of a "regional confrontation on a scale not seen since the Ottoman-Safavid wars of the 17th and 18th centuries."  His Highness is referring to the massive conflict between the Ottomans and Persians for control of the region but he is aware that today Turkey-Iran are working together against the current U.S. troop presence and the 12,000 European troops in south Lebanon. 

But Teheran does not want them to depart in peace and has planned what the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei referred to as a "feast", a blood feast which similar to what is acknowledged and performed in Shia rituals, the blood red bull with a mans face waiting to consume more blood.  Fortunately the Saudi government is in a position to lead regional/international efforts to stabilize Iraq, through a national coalition, after the smoke clears.  Turning to Afghanistan in Central Asia, Faisal's observations also apply to the Pentagon in Iraq, "As long as GI boots remain on Afghan soil, they remain targets of resistance for the Afghan people and ideological mercenaries...The inept way in which the administration has dealt with President (Hamid) Karzai beggars disbelief and amazement.  Both sides are now filled with resentment and a sour taste in their mouths.  How can they get out of that situation? I don't know."

Regular readers of the site know I have often maintained Washington and the West have often interpreted the world around them not as it really is but as they want it to be and according to how they decide to manipulate governments and people they target.  Pursuit and promotion of an international policy based on completely unrealistic, delusional assumptions which the West had the power to enforce because the region had remained so weak for so long.  But that began to chance with the enormous oil revenue Saudi Arabia and other countries began to receive during the 1970s which of course dramatically increased their influence on the world stage.  However governments in the West still approach the region as if it were 1950 instead of 2010.  Reality will not dawn on Western governments and its establishments as a result of this war.  They will withdraw into further darkness, the world of militarism and all of its pagan rituals.

rfn=Teheran -  Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was presented with a carpet tableau for his efforts to mediate between Teheran and the United Nations Security Council concerning Iran's uranium enrichment to weapons grade level.  This came after he was dismissed after a brief audience with Iran's leadership.  IRNA reports some economic Memorandums of Understanding (MoU) were signed.

night watch:  rfn=TEHERAN -  "Davutoglu received a call from Mottaki who invited him to come to Teheran as soon as possible, preferably to coincide with the visit of the Brazilian President."  PressTV reports that was the emergency announcement by a Turkish diplomat speaking to AFP on the urgent request by Iran Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki for Turkey Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu to be present in Teheran at the same time as Brazil's President.  President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is due to arrive in Teheran on Sunday as he continues the back door diplomacy on Iran's nuclear uranium enrichment to weapons grade material which is about to be targeted by a fourth round of sanctions by the United Nations Security Council in New York next month.  Officially President da Silva of Brazil has posed as a "friend" of Iran and against any further sanctions and Teheran may have actually believed his support was genuine. 

But Mottaki may have learned, only this month, that in reality da Silva was actually conducting some back door diplomacy entirely in line with the West and the UNSC which is against further uranium enrichment to weapons grade material.  President da Silva may have stated to Teheran that he actually represents the last chance for any negotiated solution before relations really take a serious turn for the worse in June.   But on Iran's part their leadership has always given the impression that not only are sanctions no real threat but that Teheran is completely prepared for the worse, full scale war, which is why Iran now seems to be increasing violence first in Iraq then perhaps against Israel, then in Afghanistan. And finally in the former Yugoslavia where the war there can be used to silence Vienna and the UN International Atomic Energy Agency that has been investigating Iran's uranium enrichment.

It is quite possible Mottaki wants Turkey's Foreign Minister present at the same time as da Silva in order to keep Ankara abreast of the latest deterioration and to establish the combined response from Ankara-Teheran not only to da Silva but also to the UNSC.

rfn=Tal Afar -  Teheran is having al-Qaeda in Iraq maintain the latest bomb offensive across the country by having suicide bombers attack a crowd at a football match in the northern Iraq city of Tal Afar 60 miles west of Mosul near the borders of Syria-Turkey.  Al Jazeera reports 25 people were killed and five times that many wounded as three explosions took place at 6 pm local time Friday.  These are the "dark days soaked with blood" the Iraq al-Qaeda Minister of War al-Nasser Lideen Allah Abu Suleiman warned about in his statement earlier this week after his unit attacked ten Iraq cities on Monday. 

I suspect this latest wave of violence is designed to have militia groups like the Mahdi Army, led by radical Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr re-emerge.  Tal Afar is mainly a Shia Turkomen city and since Shia's are the main target their militias will resurface quite possibly before this month is over.  Teheran may want heavier fighting to begin even before the Security Council vote in June.  That will keep Allied governments on the defensive.

rfn=Teheran -  Sometimes news is funny.  Ynet News/AP report an Iranian spiritual leader, Ayatollah Mohammad Bagher Kharrazi has openly called for Iran to establish a Greater Iran which will include all of West Asia (Middle East) and Central Asia, which will be even larger than the first Persian Empire.  This of course is not going to happen.  It will require the complete cooperation of Teheran's most important strategic Axis partner-Ankara which often likes to say how wonderful it is most people in Central Asia are Turkish speaking and therefore not Persian.  At the same time people and governments in West-Central Asia have extremely long and precise memories of the first Persian Empire which had a tendency to be dictatorial and demanding economically.

night watch:  rfn=SHAMIRAN -  "Iranian forces thought that the border guards belonged to the PJAK (Party of Free Kurdistan) and started to open fire."  Asharq al-Awsat/AFP report that was the announcement by Brigadier-General Gharib Diskara after troops from both countries exchanged fire for 90 minutes in the mountainous border area known as Shamiran 55 miles south east (90 km) from the city of Sulaymaniyah in the Kurdish region which extends from Iraq into Iran.  General Diskara continued, "The border guards shot back and one officer of the Iraqi Army has been captured.  Negotiations are ongoing to free him."  It may only have been a misunderstanding that Iranian troops suspected the Iraq border guards were possibly members of the Kurdish rebel group PJAK which has been fighting Iran's rule even during the administration of the Shah of Iran.

But I have long suspected Teheran is preparing reasons to intervene in Iraq directly as part of its full scale war with the West and heavy fighting in Iraq would reduce the chances for the Pentagon to engage in combined operations against Iran's nuclear facilities.  Both Baghdad/Teheran have serious disputes with their Kurdish regions and the Kurdish Peshmerga have been closely cooperating with Washington since Saddam Hussein's removal in 2003.  Iran's leaders could easily accuse Washington of attempting to use the Kurdish situation to cause more instability.  And Teheran may suspect the Pentagon has plans to use the Peshmerga's against Iran.

rfn=Baghdad -  "The matter has become unbearable, patience has run out...We named this invasion, The Attack of the Monotheists in Revenge for Honors in the Prison of Apostates."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the warning of the new leader of the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI).  SITE Intelligence Group identifies him as al-Nassr Lideen Allah Abu Suleiman.  Suleiman warned there will be "a long gloomy night and dark days colored in blood."  Most of the warnings targeted Shia's and mentioned the cities of Baghdad-Mosul and the province of Diyala which borders Iran.  He is the new Minister of War for the ISI and Xinhua reports he stated they have already begun their campaign against Iraq security forces and the bombings this week in ten cities confirm this.  Teheran is unleashing this on the eve of the sanctions vote by the United Nations Security Council against Iran's continued uranium enrichment for weapons production.  Teheran has warned their response to sanctions this time will be different.

rfn=Vienna -  "Iran's move made it clear that it is not serious about the fuel proposal."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the observation by a Western diplomat at the center of the negotiations to apply a fourth round of economic sanctions against Iran since no negotiated settlement can be considered realistic and obtainable.  That was always a false hope because in order to achieve that Teheran would have to change the entire reason its government exsists, to defeat the West by removing their military bases from the region and to become the main voice in the world's energy markets.  The move the diplomat is referring to are reports Iran has now activated a second cascade of 164 centrifuge machines to increase the process of enriching uranium to weapons grade level.  It is known Iran has been enriching uranium to 20 percent but weapons grade can only be achieved at 80-90 percent. 

Officially Teheran is not near that yet but it has been known for at least the past several years that Iran has nuclear facilities which have never been inspected.  Reuters even mentioned more than ten years ago Iran was using lasers in its enrichment.

rfn=Moscow -  "I do hope that the Brazilian President's mission will be a success.  Perhaps it is the last chance before the U.N. Security Council makes the already known decisions."  Xinhua reports that was the hope expressed by Russia President Dmitry Medvedev speaking at a joint press conference in Moscow with Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.  RIA reports President Medvedev was trying to be optimistic that President da Silva will persuade Teheran to end its uranium enrichment and accept lower grade uranium in return but then Medvedev said the chances for da Silva's success was only 30%.

rfn=Washington -  "The next few weeks, we expect to table a resolution in New York.  We are certain to move forward on a sanctions resolution.  We have a sense of urgency on this."  Dawn reports that was the announcement by Philip Crowley spokesman of the U.S. State Department.  This sense of urgency was probably what prompted the phone call between U.S. President Barack Obama and Russia President Dmitry Medvedev, a conversation described as "wide ranging."  Which probably means not only were a wide range of options discussed, after Teheran refuses to cooperate, but perhaps also a wide range of military-government-industrial targets in Iran both Moscow-Washington will attack.  June is shaping up to be a very critical month.

rfn=Pristina -  B92 is reporting NATO-KFOR (Kosovo Force) has reinforced its position on the Kosovo/Macedonia border after four gunmen were killed, ethnic Albanian, by Macedonia police this past week.  They were attempting to smuggle weapons across the border and more weapons have just been found.  KFOR rapid reaction units are now cooperating with the Kosovo Police Service (KPS) and the European Union police mission EULEX.  A KFOR spokesman said the troops will remain "for as long as needed."  This is an extremely volatile flashpoint with violence here having the chain reaction potential to inflame the Greece/Macedonia border and the Serbia border with its Kosovo province and at the same time forcing a military response from Albania.   This revolves around attempts to achieve a Greater Albania on the part of nationalistic groups with organized crime connections. 

The type of situation Teheran has long found ideal in entering a region, from the Balkans to the Caucasus in order to increase the fighting and prepare the region for more war to involve both the West-Russia.  Moscow has prepared itself, through the Kissinger-Primakov Strategic Working Group (SWG) to end Teheran's ability to support Islamic groups in the North Caucasus and Georgia in the South.  But NATO is not prepared in the Balkans for heavy action and Teheran knows it and can therefore use the region to not only keep the Brussels based alliance on the defensive but to also silence Vienna which is the base of the UN International Atomic Energy Agency that has been investigating Iran's uranium enrichment.

night watch:  rfn=TEHERAN -  "Movement like this dosen't augur well."  Asharq al-Awsat report that was the concerned observation of former CIA officer Clare Lopez now a Senior Fellow with the Center for Strategtic Policy.  She is referring to the latest known movement of al-Qaeda operatives that have been permitted to leave Iran since late 2008 including Saad bin Laden, one of Osama bin Laden's son with four other agents.  And Iran has deliberately allowed confusing, conflicting information as to their destinations.  In order to gather material for this article AP conducted dozens of interviews with intelligence and counter-terrorism officials who spoke mostly on the condition of anonymity.  One of the few exceptions was Bruce Riedel another former CIA official now with the Brookings Institution, "This has been a dark, a black zone for us.  What excactly is the level of al-Qaeda activity in Iran has always been a mystery.  Clearly, there's something going on on the Iranian front."

There is always something going on on the Iranian front and in order to keep Allied intelligence guessing there is of course no obvious pattern to the movement of agents and I suspect Teheran set up a false network to arrest then release and receive a lot of publicity in order to distract Allied governments into following false leads.  In the meantime the real network the serious level goes largely undetected which is why bomb attacks have increased across Iraq since last August.  The only Allied intelligence services which may be familiar with the use of false networks are probably Berlin-Moscow and maybe Paris.  But Teheran knows what Washington wants to hear and they know the CIA is eager to broadcast any success so Teheran lets some of the false operatives be killed or monitored.  Allowing phone calls for instance from Baluchistan to be traced to destinations in Saudi Arabia or Pakistan's Northwest Tribal areas, areas which are undefined, not accurately mapped and can never be closely monitored. 

That is why the CIA relies on satellite imagery which is not the most precise method of tracking but so often it is as close as the CIA can come and even then it is probably a false lead.  While the image is being analyzed the situation changes on the ground.  Sometimes Teheran allows these known agents to travel, and other times not which can lead intelligence services to assume the agents are no longer active.  But at the same time cells have already been in place waiting to become active while intelligence services attempt to track the latest movements of the "mangagement council" of al-Qaeda which some suspect are at best low level operatives. 

The CIA is still trying to find some of those responsible for the 1998 bomb attacks on the US Embassies in Kenya-Tanzania and they know some trainers of al-Qaeda have been active for decades.  They also know all of them can be traced to Teheran and that is the real reason these networks, real and false, will remain active until Teheran is attacked and its government defeated.  The CIA even conducted what had been a highly classified program code-named RIGOR which attempted to assassinate al-Qaeda officials in Iran but the results were so mixed CIA Diretor Leon Panetta shut down the operation last year.  But until the center of these networks are attacked the chase will go on and the black zone will become blacker.

rfn=Sadr City -  Teheran is having al-Qaeda continue its bombing offensive in Iraq as WebIndia123/DPA report two bombs were set off in Sadr City the urban base of the Shia militia Mahdi Army headed by cleric Muqtada al-Sadr now based in Teheran.  Twelve people were killed and forty-two wounded as a cafe, popular with young people, was hit.  Then a bomb in a minibus exploded.  Meanwhile in Mosul, near the border with Syria-Turkey, fighting continued as a car bomb killed a police officer and three civilians were killed by gunmen.  One of the civilians killed was an employee of the Iraqi satellite television channel al-Mosuliya.  Its reporting may have become especially critical.  Teheran is staging these attacks to provide reasons for Iraq militia groups re-surface by accusing the U.S. military presence as being the main cause of instability and when heavy fighting resumes Teheran intervenes directly.

rfn=Dushanbe -  "We believe that Iran and Tajikistan are a single nation and development of defense relations will benefit both nations."  IRNA report that was the diplomatic statement by Defense Minister of Tajikistan Colonel General Serali Khairulloyevs as Iran Defense Minister Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi arrived in Dushanbe leading a high level delegation.  General Vahidi will meet Foreign Minister Hamrokhon Zarifi and Majlis (Parliament) Speaker Mohammad Seyed Aabidulloyevs.  Taking an extreme interest in these meetings will be the Kissinger-Primakov Strategic Working Group (SWG) which is directing Russia's military reforms in order to produce a more efficient and direct reponse to any threat from the Central Asia region which could disrupt Russia's historical ability to export raw materials and resources to industrial concerns in the West led by Berlin.

I would not be surprised if the SWG has agents/informers that are part of the Tajikistan delegation and staff taking part in meetings with Vahidi.  They will then send the entire minutes of the meetings to Moscow.  It was in Tajikistan where World War III began February 1994 with the announcement by Russian troops they were on a frontline fighting Islamic fundamentalists.  Moscow still maintains important bases and facilities in this country which borders Afghanistan and is a crossroads between Uzbekistan-Pakistan and the Uighur region (East Turkestan) in northwest China.

night watch:  rfn=YASUJ -  "You'd better listen to the Iranian nation's advice: Leave Afghanistan, leave Iraq, withdraw to your borders and mind your own business."  Xinhua/PressTV reports that was the policy demand from Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad speaking at the city of Yasuj in the southwest just 250 miles from the Iraq city of Basra which is near some Pentagon bases in southern Iraq and just north of U.S. bases in Kuwait at the top of the Persian Gulf.  This comes on the last day of the eight day Velayat 89 naval maneuvers conducted by Teheran in the Persian Gulf-Strait of Hormuz-Sea of Oman, exercises which also involved air support and ground forces operations.  And in late April Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps conducted their own manuevers as Iran completes preparations for this year of ultimatums and full scale war with the West.

rfn=Sea of Oman/Northern Indian Ocean -  "Over 150 exercises and operations by Iran's ground, air and naval forces were carried out successfully in the massive navy drill.  All the exercises were successful.  This war game can be regarded as a turning point in using domestic achievements, including light weight submarines, destroyers, radar systems and electronic war systems."  Xinhua/IRNA report that was the offensive observation by Iran Rear Admiral Gasem Rostam-abadi.  And Defense Minister Brigadier-General Ahmad Vahidi announced the last day of Velayat 89 completed the series of Great Messenger 5 wargames begun in April.  Usually these maneuvers are not conducted until the summer but because relations with the West are deteriorating so rapidly they were held earlier.  Economic sanctions are expected to be voted by the United Nations Security Council in June and Teheran has been warning their response will be military and not just some small scale terrorist attack by some anonymous operatives.

But of all the military offensive drills conducted during the past eight days the most ominous may have been the new air to surface missiles Xinhua/Fars News Agency report were fired by Iran's Phantom fighter jets on the sixth day-Monday.  They could be the vanguard of Iran's attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq-Persian Gulf and NATO bases in Afghanistan.

rfn=Teheran -  "The ground is set for expansion of cooperation between the two countries."  PressTV reports that was the announcement by Serbia's new Ambassador to Iran Alexander Tacik as he was welcomed by Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki who warned, "Unfortunately certain powers still seek to create trouble in the Balkans."  Those "certain powers" are the NATO governments which eagerly committed troops and conducted air attacks against Serbia and groups supported by Serbia as fighting erupted with the division of Yugoslavia in 1991-92.  NATO air attacks began in 1994 first against Bosnian Serbs then against the rest of Serbia for 78 days in 1999.  But what made the fighting much worse was the arms embargo the Brussels based alliance imposed on Bosnia-Herzegovina in 1992.

Most NATO governments used the worsening crisis to justify direct military invervention but that was the same year Teheran entered the conflict, not only by helping the Bosnia government in Sarajevo break the embargo, but also in establishing relations with every government in the former Yugoslavia that same year including Croatia.  Teheran perfectly realized what Brussels had done, its extremely irresponsible decision making put NATO completely out of position by establishing another regional theatre in World War III and created an avenue of invasion for Iran into Europe.  Teheran will use the new fighting to silence Vienna and end the investigation into its nuclear industry by the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency based in Vienna.  In 2006 both Iran-Greece signed security agreements with Serbia which has been re-armed by Russia.

rfn=Radusa-Rasce - All it would take for the "ground to be set" in order to activate the security agreement is for fighting to break out somewhere in the former Yugoslavia involving the Serbia government in Belgrade.  Most of the time I assumed it will be on the Kosovo/Serbia border since the Kosovo province declared independence from Serbia in 2008. But further south there is another flashpoint on the Macedonia/Serbia/Greece border involving ethnic Albanian criminal gangs which could be connected to the National Liberation Army a former ethnic Albanian rebel group which has been laying underground since 2001 the last year heavy fighting erupted in this area and it seriously threatened the Macedonia government in Skopje. 

B92 reports today Macedonia police killed four members of what is assumed to be a criminal gang near the villages of Radusa and Rasce just 12 miles north of Skopje.  But BBC and Kosovo Radio report it is not yet known if the dead may have been members of the NLA.  Teheran will have an excellent idea who those four were.

night watch:  rfn=BAGHDAD -  "Al-Qaeda will love to see a longer U.S. occupation.  The U.S. occupation of Iraq has been one of the best tools the al-Qaeda has to kill more Americans, to drain the U.S. treasure and money, to recruit more extremists."  Al Jazeera reports that was the astute observation by Iraqi political analyst Raed Jarrar based in Washington as Asharq al-Awsat/AP report the death toll from the wave of attacks across Iraq Monday has risen to 119 with more than 350 wounded.  This site has often mentioned Teheran wants the trap of Iraq to be maintained and right now there are more than 90,000 U.S. troops confined to bases across Iraq within easy range of the missiles Iran is currently testing in the Persian Gulf/Sea of Oman.  And with Iran's network they can activate al-Qaeda to unleash another wave of terror and attacks at any time.  At least ten cities were hit Monday in an offensive Iraq security forces and U.S. units are completely unable to prevent.  Jarrar continued, "I don't think Iraqis view U.S. military presence as protecting them or help to stabilize the country.  Prolonging the U.S. occupation will add yet another layer of complexity and problems to the already tense situation."

The Pentagon has scheduled August 31 to begin major troop withdrawals but that is not Teheran's schedule as Iran does not want to see these units in other regional theatres, working with Russia in the Caucasus for instance.  Yesterday was probably just the first of many new waves of heavy attacks across Iraq.  What is left of the Iraq government could demand the U.S. troops take a new active role in attempting to stabilize the country and when Washington refuses then Baghdad will support the demands of militia groups accusing the U.S. troop presence as being the main cause of the instability, setting the stage for Iran to enter the war directly and go beyond using al-Qaeda.

rfn=Sea of Oman -  That is why it is so significant officials from Iraq were reported yesterday as observing Iran's Velayat 89 naval maneuvers in the Persian Gulf/Sea of Oman.  The offiicials are becoming familiar with the Iranian officers they are now working with.  PressTV reports on the seventh day of the exercises cruise missiles were tested.  Missiles which can evade radar by flying low and have a range of 30-36 miles (50-60 km).  Velayat 89 is to end Wednesday and I suspect more attacks across Iraq and new Taliban offensives in Afghanistan to resume right afterward.

rfn=Beirut -  "I care about my country's and nothing else."  YnetNews reports that was the firm response by Lebanon Prime Minister Saad Hariri after he was told his support of Scud missile deliveries to Hezbollah in Lebanon by Syria angered Washington.  Prime Minister Hariri was speaking through the Lebanon paper as-Safir which published his remarks in a meeting with Lebanese officials that he, "Supports the resistance in Lebanon (Hezbollah) acquiring anything it can to defend the borders and sovereignty of Lebanon and this includes Scud missiles, in order to face any Israeli attempt to strike Lebanon."

rfn=Washington -  His position on this issue is probably the reason Hurriyet/AFP are reporting Hariri will begin a five day visit to Washington-New York May 24.  He will be meeting White House officials and the United Nations Security Council, meetings which may not be in an atmosphere of peace.  Washington summoned the most senior Syrian diplomat four times, beginning in March, due to Damascus' constant arming of Hezbollah with more rockets/missiles and with the full cooperation of Teheran.  The West is not opposed to any Israel operation against Hezbollah-Syria and I assume the 12,000 European troops in south Lebanon are prepared to work with the Israel Defense Forces.

rfn=Handwara -  WebIndia123/UNI are reporting new fighting has broken out in Kashmir in Handwara village, Baramulla district north of Srinagar near the Line of Control (LoC) which divides Kashmir between Pakistan/India.  This latest action began when India security received information of Islamic militants in a particular area of the village and stormed it with the militants opening fire.  Three miliants and one Indian soldier have been killed so far in the ongoing operation.  India Army intelligence announced last week it expects a "hot summer" this year with serious attempts by militants, trained in Pakistan, to cross the LoC and end India's rule over the Muslim majority state.

Increased infiltration, coupled with cover fire from Pakistan Rangers, will force Delhi to use its hot pursuit policy and attack the training bases inside Pakistan which would set off the fourth full scale war since the two countries' combative independence in 1947.  The infilitration and cover fire are part of the Action Plan of Pakistan General Pervez Musharraf that he presented to Teheran Feb. 2007.

rfn=Trig Heights -  "Our activity along the boundary area has been consistent with the above principles.  Our patrols along the border will never cross border to other countries."  IRNA reports that was the statement by Jiang Yu spokeswoman for China's Foreign Ministry, after PTI reported there have been, in the past week, at least three incursions by armed Chinese patrols along the China/India Kashmir border in the Trig Heights and Panjong Tso lake.  Beijing claims the border is legitimate due to the Sino-Pakistan boundary agreement of 1963.  The agreement deliberately excluded India since both Beijing-Islamabad have territorial disputes with Delhi and that has been the foundation of strategic relations between China-Pakistan since 1951.  The dispute is the reason China invaded India, mainly in its northeast into Arunachal Pradesh for one month, October 1962, during the dry season and there was also fighting along the China/India Kashmir border. 

This aggressive patrolling by Chinese units confirm my suspicions Beijing is prepared to enter the next Pakistan/India war.  Last year Delhi positioned two more divisions in its northeast and constructed more military airstrips as it warned there will be no repeat of 1962.

night watch:  rfn=BAGHDAD -  Before dawn Monday gunmen using silencers attacked seven police/army checkpoints across Baghdad.  Swissinfo/Reuters report these were the largest attacks since the beginning of the year and were all carried out in a coordinated pattern in less than three hours.  I am not surprised this was timed with Iran Majlis (Parliament) Speaker Ali Larjani's visit to Turkey for three days of meetings with senior Turkish officials on the latest regional events, in other words increased fighting in Iraq, around Israel and Afghanistan.  The expanded regional war Teheran has been years in planning and designed to reduce the chances of combined Allied operations against Iran's nuclear facilities, military bases and government buildings.  At least seven checkpoints were attacked by gunmen and bombs were placed at three more with the attacks killing seven police and soldiers.

Outside the capital the deadliest attack was staged during the end of the work shift at a textile factory in Hillah 62 miles (100 km) south of Baghdad.  Two suicide car bombs killed at least 35 people and wounded more than 140 then more casualties occurred during a third explosion as police and medics arrived to assist the injured.  Thirty miles (50 km)southeast of the capital at the market in al-Suwayra thirteen were killed and forty wounded in a suicide car bomb attack and another attack by a suicide bomber wearing an explosive vest.  Al Jazeera reports there were a dozen attacks in Baghdad alone mostly against security units and police.  At the same time Mosul was also hit by an attack on a checkpoint killing some Kurdish Peshmerga guards and another attack in Basra to the south that killed seven people and wounded eighteen.  Baghdad Security spokesman Major-General Qassim al-Moussawi suspiciously referred to these attacks as "hysterical."  Perhaps he is working with Teheran to cause them by providing inefficient security.

rfn=Zahedan -  Iran Ground Forces Commander, Brigadier-General Ahmad-Reza Pourdastan announced the Iranian built Fajr 5 rocket was test fired today in the Velayat 89 maneuvers which began last Wednesday and are due to end this Wednesday.  The exercises are largely naval and have featured coordinated cooperation between Iranian naval, air and marine units in confronting enemy attempts to attack Iran and disruption of enemy communications.  IRNA reports a variety of surface to surface, surface to air and surface to sea missiles were fired during this fourth phase and for the first time officials from Iraq attended the exercises.  Officials from Qatar-Oman were also in attendence as foreign officials responded to the invitation from the Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics.

General Pourdastan was speaking from Sistan-Baluchestan province which not only borders the northern Indian Ocean but also Afghanistan-Pakistan.  I suspect the Fajr 5 has enough range to hit every NATO base in Afghanistan.  Teheran may increase fighting in Iraq-Afghanistan while at the same time accusing the U.S. in Iraq and NATO in Afghanistan as being the main reason for the regional instabililty.  As the West scrambles and attempts to respond governments in the West will accuse Iran of supporting those attacks and then we may first see both sides hurling accusations at each other as the war increases this month and into June.  There will be accusations and counter-accusations leading to ultimatums.  It is quite possible Iran's government is really using these maneuvers to actually practice offensives it will launch even before the United Nations Security Council can finish its discussions on sanctions. 

Teheran may have planned heavy fighting to blow sanctions right off the table and force the West into a more serious, desperate, defensive and defeated situation.  Iran's leaders want Brussels-Washington to accuse Teheran of increasing support for armed groups in both Iraq-Afghanistan while Iran puts on a show of defiance and hurls accusations/ultimatums of their own.  Larijani warned a year ago Teheran had a variety of war scenarios planned.  They are obviously intended for Teheran to maintain the initiative which would not be possible if the West were permitted to attack first.

night watch:  rfn=ISTANBUL -  The point man of Teheran's foreign policy Majlis (Parliament) Speaker Ali Larijani has just arrived in Istanbul to attend the Inter-Parliamentary meeting of the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC).  IRNA reports Speaker Larijani will be meeting on the sidelines with officials from other Islamic governments.  But his most important meetings will be with senior officials from Turkey which I suspect will be used to encourage Ankara to continue to take an aggressive/offensive role in regional events and not just in West Asia (Middle East) but in the Balkans as well since both Ankara-Teheran have planned to use new fighting in the former Yugoslavia to keep the West busy and on the defensive.  Wars in regions around both governments will be used to fulfill the strategic aspirations of both Ankara-Teheran as the have long stated the enormous potential that can be achieved by working together militarily and to make it easier for them these are conflicts the West initially encouraged.

But for now Larijani is in Istanbul performing his stock role of bad mouthing Jerusalem to anyone with a microphone while behind the scenes he is discussing the war scenarios he indicated Teheran had planned for the West.  And one of the main sparks in the region is of course the constant Palestinian/Israel dispute and the Gaza flashpoint.  But Larijani and Iran do not intend to use heavy fighting here just for attacks on Israel but for the spark to spread by having Hamas again attack Cairo's control of the Rafah Terminal on the Gaza/Egypt border, as in 2008, which will inflame the large opposition in Egypt, both secular and religious, to President Hosni Mubarak in order to end his close relations with the West.

There will be a conflict chain reaction as fighting then spreads into south Lebanon, trapping the 12,000 European troops there and in Iraq-Persian Gulf-Afghanistan-Balkans.

rfn=Jask -  IRNA/PressTV report the third phase of Iran's Velayat 89 naval maneuvers ended Sunday with the test firing of different missiles including a new anti-submarine undersurface missile.  Allied submarines are one of the main warships used to monitor and threaten Iran in and near the Persian Gulf and now Teheran seems to have completed preparations on attacking them.  Rear Admiral Qasem Rostam-abadi announced the military conducted full scale operations and executed strategic plans to counter any threat.  Special Marine operations were involved and surveillance by remote controlled aircraft.  Late last month an Iranian surveillance aircraft flew low over the aircraft carrier USS Eisenhower.  Unfortunately the Allied response to these obviously offensive maneuvers has been purely defensive.  These wargames began last Wednesday and the Fourth phase of these eight day maneuvers begins Monday.

rfn=Lahore -  WebIndia123 and the Pakistan paper The Daily Times are reporting Pakistan intelligence is warning al-Qaeda is planning an attack on the U.S. Embassy in the Pakistan capital Islamabad.  Intelligence is warning three bullet proof vehicles may have entered Pakistan from Afghanistan to carry out the attack.  The warning also mentions the Pakistan/Taliban unit, Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP) may have sent two suicide bombers into the Pakistan military garrison city of Rawalpindi to cause havoc.  Punjab Home Department has ordered all concerned agencies to increase security at all important establishments and government buildings and to search vehicles entering/exiting the province which borders India.

I would not be surprised if Teheran has timed this attack, alerting Islamabad, as a way of restoring relations between Pakistan's government and Washington.  Washington has been warning Islamabad of serious consequences if the Times Square attempted attack in New York is traced to Pakistan.  Teheran realizes it is to Pakistan's and Iran's advantage if relations can be maintained with the U.S. as a way of keeping Washington confused and off guard.

night watch:  rfn=RAWALPINDI -  "Both missiles hit the target area."  Asharq al-Awsat/Reuters report that was a statement released by Pakistan's military after the test firing of two short range ballistic missles capable of carrying either a conventional or nuclear warhead.  PressTV reports Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani witnessed the tests of the Ghaznavi and Shaneen-1.  The Ghaznavi has a range of 185 miles (300 km) and the Shaneen-1 a range of 400 miles (650 km).  I suspect Pakistan will refrain from targeting India's major cities because they all have large Muslim populations and will concentrate instead on military targets.  With the Prime Minister were:  Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee General Tariq Majid, Chief of Naval Staff Admiral Noman Bashir and the Director General of Strategic Plans Division Lieutenant General Khalid Ahmed Kidwai.

This comes as Pakistan completed forty-five days of extensive manuevers last week probalby along the lines of the offensive Action Plan of General Pervez Musharraf which he presented to Teheran Feb. 2007 when he was head of state.  But please keep in mind not all bombs and missiles are going to work as well as tested.  The tests always take place in ideal conditions but in a real war those conditions seldom exists.  Nothing works as well as advertised no matter who manufactured the missile and its guidance system.  There is even a chance for a dud warhead including on conventional weapons.

rfn=Shah Nagri Forest -  "Today we have killed two more militants during the gunfight.  Actually the two were part of that group,  of which six members were killed yesterday.  The total deaths toll of militants, in the two day gunbattle, is eight."  Xinhua reports that was the account given by India Defense spokesman Lieutenant Colonel J. S. Brar in Srinagar.  The fighting began Thursday afternoon in Rafiabad village of Baramulla district 50 miles north of Srinagar along the Line of Control (LoC) which separates Kashmir between Pakistan/India.  Today's action, which is ongoing, is in the Shah Nagri forests of Handwara.  If infilitration increases, and with cover fire from Pakistan Rangers, and I expect it too, it will force Delhi to use its hot pursuit policy and attack the militant training bases inside Pakistan setting off the fourth full scale war between them since their combative independence in 1947.

rfn=London -  "Brazil and China are now on board...The timeframe we are working on...is to get a Security Council resolution by the second week of June."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the warning by a European diplomat at the center of negotiations between the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), Britain, France, Russia, U.S. China plus Germany.  Teheran had been depending on Brazil to continue to refuse to support sanctions and of course China but now it seems pressure from the West has convinced Brasilia-Beijing to support this fourth round of economic sanctions the most serious too date.

Teheran has put on an impressive diplomatic show of opposing the sanctions, even going so far as to have Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki host diplomats, including from Washington, at a dinner in New York this past week.  Iran's leadership knew the dinner was just a charade and used it to have Mottaki re-state the need for Iran to have and expand its nuclear industry which he claims is for peace.  Today he is seen laughing it off in a news photo on Hurriyet with Turkey Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu which is meant to imply close military cooperation between Ankara-Teheran against the UN and the Brussels based NATO alliance.

Teheran has been warning ominously all year it will not respond to these next sanctions as they did in the past to the three extremely weak round of sanctions the Security Council has applied since 2006.  Satellite tests by Iran have enabled them to produce ballistic missiles that can reach every European capital and the East Coast of the United States which is why NATO Secretary-General Andres Fogh Rasmussen is in Bucharest discussing missile defense.  World War III should become more obvious in June.

rfn=Sea of Oman -  RIA/PressTV report Iran has begun the fourth day and 3rd Phase of its Velayat 89 naval exercises in the Persian Gulf-Strait of Hormuz-Sea of Oman.  It involved Hovercraft strafing mock enemy positions and vessels including destroyers and frigates blocking the enemy from entering Iran's territorial waters.  Another exercise deployed speed boats, with air support, capturing an invading vessel.  There are four days and and three phases left to these wargames and I suspect Teheran will increase fighting in both Iraq-Afghanistan right afterward.  Electronic countermeasures (ECM) have been used against enemy radar and disruption of enemy communications has also been tested.

rfn=Kandahar -  Ynet News is reporting the Taliban in Afghanistan are warning they will increase attacks next week using assassinations, roadside bombs and suicide attacks against foreigners and those who support them.

night watch:  rfn=RAFIABAD -  "As the tight cordon closed in on the holed up militants, they fired indiscriminately at the security forces leading to a fierce gunfight which continued for the entire night.  More reinforcements were also rushed to the area yesterday (Thursday)."  WebIndia123/IANS report that was the announcement by a spokesman for India's police units in Kashmir as they participated in a combined operation with the Rashtriya Rifles (RR) in heavy action in a forested area of Baramulla district 50 miles (80 km) north of Srinagar.  The India Army is still conducting searches in the area concentrating on the Shiekhpora area of Rafiabad.  The next action could happen at any time but for the moment Inspector General of Police-Kashmir, Farooq Ahmad announced, "The gunfight has ended.  Seven militants belonging to the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) outfit were killed while two soldiers also died."

The action began late Thursday afternoon as India security acted on information Islamic militants were in the area.  Infiltration has increased this past week just as Pakistan completed 45 days of extensive maneuvers and the new infiltration has already caused several gunbattles along the Line of Control (LoC) which divides Kashmir between Pakistan/India.  The India Army is now expecting a "hot summer" and if that is the case it will force Delhi to use its hot pursuit policy and attack the bases inside Pakistan which are used to train infiltration teams which sometimes have cover fire provided by Pakistan Rangers.  This is almost identical to the fighting at the beginning of the Islamic uprising in Kashmir November 1989 when just two months later India rushed reinforcements to the area.  Pressure from Washington ended the crisis as reports surfaced Pakistan was loading nuclear bombs onto their F-16s. 

I suspect one of the reasons full scale war did not break out then was because Teheran was not yet ready to enter it.  They seem to be now and in 2007 Iran received and accepted the offensive Action Plan of Pakistan General Pervez Musharraf who was then Pakistan's head of state.  Pressure from Washington and the international community will be ignored this time.  Beijing is also poised to enter since it revived claims over India's northeast state Arunachal Pradesh in 2006, the area China invaded for one month in October 1962 during the dry season.  Last year Delhi positioned two more divisions in its northeast and constructed more military air strips.

rfn=Bucharest -  "We have real threats, that Iran and others have already developed missile technology that allows them to target European cities."  Xinhua reports that was the warning from NATO Secretary-General Andres Fogh Rasmussen during his meeting with Romania Foreign Minister Teodor Baconschi.  For more than a year Teheran has been conducting successful satellite tests which Moscow warned were being used to produce ballistic missiles of very long range.  And last summer Israel Deputy Foreign Minister Daniel Ayalon warned Iran actually now possessed missiles that can reach the U.S. East Coast.  That is why three heads of state at the G20 Summit in Pittsburgh last September, U.S. President Barack Obama, Britain Prime Minister Gordon Brown and France President Nicolas Sarkozy, interrupted the gathering to express their governments concern over Iran's nuclear facility at Qom.  The real concern is over Iran's new ballistic missiles but the heads of state did not want to say that publicly. 

There is a meeting scheduled in Lisbon in November on this same issue but it is quite possible Teheran would have found reasons to launch the missiles before then due to its rapidly deteriorating relations with the West.  I would guess the most likely targets of Iran's missiles would be:  Washington, New York, Vienna (because the UN International Atomic Energy Agency that has been investigating Iran's nuclear production is based there, Paris, London (due to their long history of involvement in the region) and Rome because the West began to regroup around Rome during the 2006 Rome Conference which sent 12,000 European troops to south Lebanon.  I will be surprised if Teheran launches missiles at NATO headquarters in Brussels because decisions there have been helping Teheran.  Brussels helped lead the recognition of the division of Yugoslavia and eagerly committed troops there putting the alliance completely out of position and dividing the alliance.  Teheran also realizes NATO is wasting its time in Afghanistan and every NATO base there is within easy range of Iran's missiles.

rfn=Jask -  IRNA reports Iran's navy has completed the second phase of its Velayat 89 war games in the Persian Gulf-Sea of Oman and northern Indian Ocean.  This time exercises involved using electronic/anti-electronic warfare systems employing distractors, alarm signallers and information collectors operating through radar systems.  Plus audio and non-audio instruments in the Sea of Oman onshore and off-shore.  Methods of disrupting enemy communications were also tested.

rfn=Istanbul -  Syria President Bashar al-Assad will spend his weekend in Istanbul for a series of meetings with Turkey President Abdullah Gul.  Hurriyet/AFP reports the Foreign Ministry in Ankara issued a statement saying the meetings will be used "to evaluate all aspects of our ties...and to exchange views on current regional developments."  The most current are of course the missile deliveries Damascus-Teheran are continuing to make to Hezbollah in Lebanon and according to the Kuwait paper Al-Rai the deliveries now include Scud missiles which have a one ton warhead and can reach all of Israel.  Though the rocket is extremely inaccurate Israel cannot afford for them to be fired en masse.  It is entirely possible after these weekend meetings in Istanbul that Jerusalem uses its pre-emptive attack doctrine and hit the missile storage sites in north Lebanon.  That would place Hezbollah, Syria and whatever ground unit Iran sends on the defensive.

night watch:  rfn=ISTANBUL -  "The nuclear standoff is the only agenda item on the table."  Hurriyet reports that was the announcement by Turkey Foreign Ministry on the one day visit to Istanbul by Iran Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki as he returns from New York.  Foreign Minister Manouchehr will be meeting Turkey Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and I suspect the real item on the agenda will be keeping Washington busy by increasing war in the regions around Iran-Turkey which have often announced their strategic partnership.  It is a partnership very much opposed to Washington and the West and it matches the outline of influence mapped out in the book written by Professor Davutoglu "Strategic Depth" which argues Ankara should have major influence in every region around Turkey instituting order (control).  And Mottaki realizes if Ankara can achieve that then Brussels, headquarters of both NATO-European Union (EU), will be defeated. 

Turkey's government is quite prepared to be more hated by the West than the West hates Iran's government.  Ankara has positioned itself to lead the regional support for Iran's nuclear-ballistic missile programs and their use against the West and against the West's military bases in the region.  Teheran is in the second day of its eight day Velayat 89 naval-air maneuvers in the Persian Gulf/Sea of Oman and I expect violence in Iraq to increase afterward to prepare for Iran's direct entry into the war.

rfn=Sea of Oman -  The real concern of the Ankara-Damascus-Baghdad-Teheran regional Axis is the preventing of any combined Allied operation against them and if the West's bases in Iraq and the Persian Gulf come under heavy attack it could reduce the number of attacks on Iran.  PressTV/Fars news agency report Iran's Cobra helicopters have participated in the second day of maneuvers by conducting attacks on mock targets.  Brigadier General Kiumars Ahadi stated troops and military hardware will be transported to the area in special heliborne operations and they will be supported by helicopter gunships.

rfn=Moscow -  Every government in the region has been increasing its relations with Moscow for the past several years as they realize Russia will be filling the vacuum the West is leaving.  RIA reports Russia President Dmitry Medvedev will be making the first visit to Damascus by a Russian head of state May 10-11.  Syria President Bashar al-Assad has visited Russia three times in the past five years with the last visit August 2008 at the Black Sea resort of Sochi.  That was right after Moscow's brief war with Georgia in the South Caucasus a harbinger of heavier fighting that will begin again this year as Russia restores its control over the energy rich region and guarantees its ability to export those resources to industrial concerns in the West led by Berlin.

I think the real reason for President Medvedev's visit is to gauge the state of mind of President Assad, has reality made any impact on Assad since 2008 and if not then how out of touch with reality is he?  I think Assad will continue to express his fascination on his close relations with Teheran and his fanciful projections while Medvedev scans the Syrian officials for a possible successor.  Russia will help Syria pick up the pieces after Syria's next war with Israel.

rfn=Moscow -  The Kremlin has announced Medvedev will visit Turkey May 11-12 as Hurriyet reports this is the first meeting of the New Council for Higher Cooperation between Moscow-Ankara.  This is the first of many meetings which will accelerate in the post-World War III atmosphere and will become part of a new regional alliance which will also include Iran.  Both Ankara-Moscow look forward to NATO's dissolvement as the result of new heavy fighting in the former Yugoslavia whose division also divided the Alliance.  Athens, like Ankara, is no longer marching in step with Brussels and it is quite possible Moscow may come to the financial assistance of Greece as another way of removing the Balkans from EU influence.  Neither NATO or the EU will survive the war.

rfn=Pristina -  "The amount of weapons which was discovered is very large and it represents a great concern for us.  Such actions could be used to destabilize countries like Macedonia, so its obvious that we're concerned."  B92 reports that was the response by U.S. Admiral Mark Fitzgerald after a large weapons cache was discovered after police in Macedonia had a confrontation with an armed gang from Kosovo on the Kosovo/Macedonia border.  Admiral Fitzgerald is head of Allied Joint Force Command in Naples and Italy is home to the NATO airbase at Aviano which conducted most of the air attacks against Serbia in 1994/1999.  Serbia has been re-armed by Russia since 1999 and Belgrade signed security agreements with Athens-Teheran in 2006.  Ankara has also increased its relations with Belgrade and eagerly anticipates renewed fighting that Teheran intends to use to silence Vienna where the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency is based. 

rfn=Balnoi -  WebIndia123 reports Pakistan troops have fired on an Indian Army post along the Line of Control in Kashmir for the second time in less than a week.  This comes right after Pakistan completed its largest maneuvers since independence in 1947.  The attack was on the Balnoi (no. 68) border post in Mendhar sector Poonch district.  Indian troops retaliated during the half hour exchange of fire.  There were no casualties.  On Saturday Pakistan troops also fired on another Indian post in Mendhar.  Delhi has launched a strong protest in response but I suspect this is part of the Action Plan of Pakistan General Pervez Musharraf which he presented to Teheran Feb. 2007.  I think this is designed to force India to respond with an attack on Pakistan setting off their fourth war since 1947 but this time Teheran will enter as will Beijing which has territorial disputes with India along Arunachal Pradesh in India's northeast.

rfn=Beijing -  Hurriyet is reporting North Korea leader Kim Jong-Il has returned to Pyongyang after agreeing to return to six party negotiations that will end North Korea's nuclear weapons program.  The agreement was made during Jong-Il's four hour meeting with China President Hu Jintao.  More pressure was applied on Pyongyang after Washingon-Seoul staged the sinking of the South Korea warship Cheonan March 26 on the sensitive maritme border between North/South Korea in the Yellow Sea.  If Pyongyang did not agree to new six party (Seoul-Beijing-Moscow-Tokyo-Washington-Pyongyang) then war on the North would have taken place to finally end their nuclear and ballistic missile technology exports to Teheran-Damascus.

rfn=Gyeongju -  The fourth meeting of the Foreign Ministers of China-Japan-South Korea will begin May 15 at the South Korea city of Gyeongju.  Xinhua reports the announcement on the two day meeting was made by China Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu.  Pyongyang returning to the six party negotiations will obviously be the main topic of discussion signalling the end of the nuclear threat in Northeast Asia.

night watch:  rfn=NEW YORK -  "They're not a factor in our defense doctrine, we don't even count them."  Ynet/Reuters report that was the dismissive statement by Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad speaking on ABC News "Good Morning America" with George Stephanopoulos.  President Ahmadinejad repeatedly says more than he intends with a lot of his pronouncements with this as the latest example.  He knows Israel will not attack Iran because they will be so active on their Northern Front confronting Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria.  And Ahmadinejad also know Iran never had any intention of caring out his highly publicized, distracting statements of wiping out Israel and Zionism because Jerusalem is not Teheran's main international rival for influence in the region and in global energy markets-the West is.  There is no market for salt in the Dead Sea, Israel is completely unimportant economically and Teheran's interpretation of Jihad is very economic.

But Iran's leadership has always worked along the Persian principle of creating confusion in the mind of the enemy and highly publicized, ceremonial statements help Teheran accomplish that, especially since they know what governments in the West like to hear.  They have no reason to tell their enemy the truth.  That is why Teheran still hints, deceptively, perhaps a deal can be made and full scale war can be avoided.  But Iran has been perparing for (f)allout war with the West ever since Teheran revived its nuclear program in the mid-1980s and they want to see how accurate their ballistic missiles are, not only against Western governments and major cities like New York, a follow up to 9/11, but also against the West's military bases in Iraq-Persian Gulf-Afghanistan.  Against Jerusalem, Iran will commit its brigade size Rapid Deployment Force to put on a ceremonial show of support for Palestinians-Hezbollah-Syria, a military magnanimous gesture.

Damascus-Teheran have been supplying so many surplus rockets to Hezbollah that it means the secondary explosions caused by Israel's air attacks will be much larger than in 2006 or during Operation Cast Lead into Gaza Dec. 2008-Jan. 2009.  In the meantime, when asked about reports Osama bin Laden is in Iran Ahmadinejad replied, "Your question is laughable...I heard that Osama bin Laden is in Washington D.C, he is there.  Because he was a previous partner of Mr. Bush.  They were colleagues in fact in the old days.  You know that.  They were in the oil business together.  They worked together...You are giving news which is very strange."  Ahmadinejad realizes why the question is so laughable is because he knows bin Laden can't arrange anything like flight school training.  It was Iran that conducted 9/11 and should have been attacked instead.  There is a lot of fear in Washington's analysis.

rfn=Baghdad -  "The most important thing is to form an Iraqi government, to establish a government program and to nominate the next Prime Minister."  Asharq al-Awsat/AFP report that was the statement read from the Baghdad residence of former Iraq Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari as they announced an alliance between the two major Shia coalitions, State of Law/INA.  This is the closest Baghdad has come to forming its next government since the March 7 elections and this alliance will control 159 seats in the 325 Council of Representatives-Parliament and will be only four short of being able to form a government.  This alliance was only made possible under the condition current Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, of the State of Law coalition, will have to step down.  This comes with the approval of Teheran and this alliance was probably made in Teheran with al-Jaafari long noted for being close to Iran's government.

Al-Jazeera reports Dhafir al-Ani of the Sunni-Shia secular coalition Iraqiya list warned, "It is a blow to the will of the majority of Iraqi people, who voted for Iraqiya.  The new Shia merge, that is backed by Iran, will pull Iraq back to sectarianism."   Sectarianism was the near civil war which broke out in 2005 between rival Sunni/Shia militias fighting for control of the capital and key cities killing tens of thousands of people and it didn't end until 2007.  So far there have been no statements by the head of Iraqiya former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi whose coalition took 91 seats the largest number by any single political bloc.  Allawi may have been informed, through his contacts in Teheran, this alliance was coming.  Peace is not in Iran's interest.

rfn=Tokyo -  Ynet News is reporting Israel Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman will visit Tokyo next week for meetings with Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama and Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada.  This is in response to recent developments in the Persian Gulf-Sea of Oman as Iran began another series of naval maneuvers today.  Of all the industrialized nations Japan needs more contact with oil in the Gulf than any other which is why Tokyo made its foreign policy offensive in 2004 right after Teheran announced Iran wanted China to become the main importer of Iran's oil and gas instead of Japan.  That is the reason Beijing has been the main supporter and investor in Iran's nuclear - ballistic missile weapons programs.  Tokyo had not found the many visits by leading officials from Iran's Foreign Ministry since 2004 reassuring.  When attacks against international shipping begins in the Persian Gulf, Tokyo will declare war.  Israel is a useful source of intelligence information on Iran's military and its defenses.

rfn=Moscow -  Teheran will also be at the top of the agenda when China President Hu Jintao arrives in Moscow May 8 for a two day state visit with Russia President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.  PressTV reports China Assistant Foreign Minister Cheng Guoping announced, "The leaders of the two countries will exchange views on international and regional issues of shared interest, which of course includes the Iranian nuclear issues.  China and Russia have similar views on this issue."  Beijing's views have only become similar very recently as they realize Allied governments are seriously preparing to go beyond sanctions and confronting Iran militarily.  Especially since reports surfaced the Pentagon was shipping hundreds of bunker bombs to its air/naval base at Diego Gracia in the Indian Ocean earlier this year.

rfn=Indian Ocean -  RIA reports two Russian warships are in the Indian Ocean right now, since Tuesday, conducting defense drills against a nuclear attack.  The two ships are the guided missile cruiser Moskya, flag ship of the Black Sea Fleet and the nuclear powered cruiser Pytor Veliky flag ship of the Northern Fleet.  Captain 2nd Rank Alexander Buichikov, Northern Fleet CBR specialist explained the exercises involves a nuclear weapon of 200 kilotons fired by an Aggressor (Iran) which explodes within fifteen miles of the ships which respond by assisting any damaged vessels in the area.  Both ships have been hermetically sealed against radiation and against any chemical, biological or radiological (CBR) element, elements Iran possesses.

night watch:  rfn=SEA OF OMAN -  "The massive maneuvers, dubbed Velayat-89 will show defense and deterrent naval power."  Asharq al-Awsat/AP report that was the announcement by Iran's Naval chief Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari speaking through IRNA.  The exercises are to last eight days, beginning Wednesday, with submarine and Air Force units also participating.  This comes less than two weeks after Iran's Revolutionary Guards completed four days of maneuvers, featuring missile speedboats in the Persian Gulf/Strait of Hormuz from April 22-25.  Fars News Agency quoted Admiral Sayyari stating these next maneuvers will be conducted over a much wider area, 97,000 square miles (250,000 square kilometers) in the Persian Gulf/Sea of Oman and into the northern Indian Ocean.

Swissinfo/Reuters report Sayyari's announcement was just one day after U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates warned Iran was challenging U.S. naval power in the region with an array of offensive and defensive weapons.  PressTV/CNN reported on Tuesday a U.S. naval officer stated an (Fokker) F-27 Iranian naval surveillance aircraft flew a low level, 300 feet above the aircraft carrier USS Eisenhower in the Sea of Oman April 21 and photographed despite the crew's objections.  Sayyari explained, "US warships tread the free waters of the Gulf of Oman and its Iranian navy's duty to conduct routine surveillance flight in the region.  The F-27 plane of the navy flew above the aircraft carrier and took a thorough film."  Sayyari is probably aware the Pentagon has been shipping hundreds of bunker bombs to its air/naval base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.

rfn=Jerusalem -  "The transfer of long-range missiles that was recently published is only the tip of the iceberg.  Weapons are being transferred to Hezbollah on a regular basis and this transfer is organized by the Syrian and Iranian regimes.  Therefore it should not be called smuggling of arms into Lebanon-it is organized and official transfer."  YnetNews reports that was part of the message by Brigadier-General Yossi Baidatz speaking to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Tuesday meeting in Jerusalem.  General Baidatz is head of the Military Intelligence Research Division and warned Hezbollah has an arsenal of thousands of rockets of a variety of ranges including some with solid fuel and more precise guidance systems than they possessed in 2006.

But Hezbollah also had some long range rockets in 2006 and they were destroyed by the Israel Air Force (IAF) within the first hour of Israel's offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon that July.  Israel Defense Forces (IDF) were responding to a Hezbollah ambush Teheran had them conduct in support of Palestinians which had attacked Israel from Gaza in late June.  The IAF has maintained almost daily surveillance flights over Lebanon to monitor the re-supplying of Hezbollah by Syria-Iran ever since the ceasefire in 2006.  The supply has been done despite the presence of 12,000 European troops in south Lebanon who have attempted to ignore Hezbollah.  Since Hezbollah has become more powerful I don't think Israel will wait for them to attack first but will instead use its pre-emptive attack doctrine which will force Hezbollah-Syria and any Iranian unit committed in support of Damascus to be on the defensive.

night watch:  rfn=DANDONG -  "We have confirmed the arrival of a special train at Dandong and we believe it is highly likely that Chairman Kim is on board."  France24/AFP report that was the announcement by an official in Seoul quoted over Yonhap on the not unexpected arrival of North Korea leader Kim Jong-Il into China.  The station was immediately surrounded by 200 Chinese policemen as the 17 carriage armoured train arrived across the Yalu river border into Dandong Kim's first trip to China since 2006.  Yang Moo-Jin an expert at Seoul University's North Korea Studies observed,  "Kim will likely express his commitment to returning to Six Party talks while leaving the date for return up to host China.  In return Kim will receive economic aid from China."  Analysts have noted the destination of the train is significant, the China port city of Dalian on the Gulf of China and linked by rail to North Korea.  Beijing had the city open to foreign investment in 1984 which transformed its old industrial base into an active economic zone.

Kim Jong-Il had expressed an interest in doing something similar for North Korea during his 2004 visit to China, which is why he had them show him a stock exchange, but when his train re-entered North Korea an explosion just missed it because Beijing still wanted to use North Korea as a base to develop and test plutonium nuclear weapons for Iran-Syria and also to conduct ballistic missile tests for exports to Iran.  China's Central Government had always realized Teheran's militrary preparations and foreign policy had the potential of weakening three of China's rivals, the West-India-Russia.  But with full scale war near Beijing has realized it is time to end North Korea as a test/export center for advanced weaponry.  And what made Beijing-Pyongyang realize this was the March 26 explosion which sank the South Korea warship Cheonan an explosion which the North denied causing.  I suspect Washington-Seoul staged this as a possible pretext to attack the North's military-industrial base unless Pyongyang agrees to return to the Six Party (Moscow-Beijing-Seoul-Washington-Tokyo-Pyongyang) Talks, negotiations to end North Korea's nuclear weapons program. 

Beijing has sustained North Korea's decrepit economy since the Cold War ended twenty years ago with massive amounts of aid but this time sustained investment is now being planned in North Korea's industrial city Rajin near the Russia-China border.  WebIndia123/DPA report Dalian is linked to Rajin and China has invested 26 million yuan ($3.8 million) into Rajin Port No. 1 Pier.  A Chinese paper Global Times reported the pier is regularly visited by Chinese ships and Jin Huadin, an expert on North Korea with Yanbian University explained Pyongyang has plans to transform Rajin (Rason) into a "Northeast Asia logistics center, trade center, tourism center and an industrial trading zone based on its excellent harbor."  A convoy of 15 limousines was seen arrving at the luxury Furama Hotel in Dalian.  It has also been reported Kim's youngest son is accompanying his father since he has been designated Kim's successor and has experience with international trade and financing.

rfn=Teheran -  "A new short range anti-cruise (missile) defense system, with the capability to fire 4,000  rounds of bullets per minute, has been produced at the Defense Ministry and will soon be inaugurated."  GulfTimes/Fars News Agency report that was the announcement by Iran Defense Minister Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi who continued, "We are at the design and production phase of various defense systems in the short, medium and long range categories."  General Vahidi is referring to the Mersad air defense and Shahin missile defense systems.  The anti-cruise system is designed for operation against one of the primary weapons the US-Russia Air Forces will be using against not only military targets in Iran but also against government buildings in Teheran.  Iran's leadership is aware the Pentagon has been shipping hundreds of bunker bombs to its air/naval base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean since the beginning of the year.  The Pentagon claims it will be able to attack 10,000 targets inside Iran within a few hours.

rfn=Kuwait City -  "We call for freezing all agreements with Iran...The government should recall our Ambassador from Teheran and expel the Iranian Ambassador from Kuwait."  Asharq al-Awsat/AFP report that was Salafi MP Mohammad Hayef in Kuwait noted for his strong opposition to Teheran as reports surfaced Kuwait security had arrested an Iranian spy cell controlled by Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).  Kuwait paper Al-Qabas reports six Kuwaits and two bidoons, stateless Arabs who were in the Army, have been arrested along with two Lebanese one of whom financed the cell and the other served as a liaison with the IRGC.  The cell is accused of monitoring and photographing US-Kuwait military bases and passing the information on the Guards during meetings in the Iranian cities of Mashhad and Isfahan.  Xinhua reports Pentagon bases in Kuwait are used to transport troops to Iraq-Afghanistan.  These bases are of course some of the first targets for Iran's missiles when war becomes more direct.

rfn=Damascus -  INN reports on Friday Iran Vice-President Mohammad Reza Rahim visited Damascus just as Turkey-Syria were completing three days of combined maneuvers in order to strenghten communication between their military commands.  Turkey is part of a regional military axis Teheran-Damascus have been forming for the past six years, an extension of their 30 years of military cooperation, and the regional axis includes Iraq.  This is very much opposed to the remaining military presence of the West, including the 12,000 European troops in south Lebanon.  The West is no longer seen as a secure presence and that is why for the past several years every Muslim government in the region has been increasing their military relations with Moscow.  Russia is poised to fill the vacuum the West is leaving.

But for the moment Vice-President Rahim stated at a joint press conference with Syria Prime Minister Mohammad Naji Otri that Teheran is prepared to stand alongside Damascus as Syria prepares to "counter any threat".  The "threat" is of course Jerusalem's possible pre-emptive attack on the Scud missiles Damascus has been sending to Hezbollah in Lebanon.  Just a few days earlier Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made this policy statement as he welcomed Ankara's new Ambassador, "Safeguarding the regional security and efforts aimed at influencing the new world order are the most important duties of our two countries.  Teheran and Ankara have lots of shared historic moments and interests and at the international scene, too, our standpoints are quite close to each other...Iran and Turkey are also at the center of the entire Muslim's reliance within the Islamic world."

Muslim governments in the region agree with a lot of what President Ahmadinejad stated and welcome cooperation with Iran, but they do not wish to see a second Persian Empire.  They remember the first one.  Persia has a historical tendency to be very dictatorial and demanding economically.  People in the region have a very long memory and sometimes refer to Iran as "the demon of the Gulf."

night watch:  rfn=BEIJING -  Thursday the Financial Times reported China's government has decided to build two new nuclear reactors in Pakistan.  Officially they have been designated "Civilian" but in reality they will be used to produce nuclear weaponry in continued support of Pakistan after its next war with India which I expect to begin soon after Islamabad completes its extensive military maneuvers May 3.  Pakistan of course already possesses a nuclear arsenal which I suspect, though smaller than India's, could be more advanced due to the enormous support Pakistan has long had from Beijing which also has territorial disputes with India especially in the northeast on the border of India's Arunachal Pradesh.  Beijing invaded the state for one month, October 1962, during the dry season that year and the fighting extended south into Assam state bordering the Bay of Bengal.  China's government probably has plans to enter the next war during this year's dry season and last year Delhi positioned two more divisions in its northeast and constructed more air strips.

This is an extension and continuation of the strategic relations between Pakistan-China which Beijing instituted in 1951 and with Iran even during the administration of the Shah of Iran in 1972 the year before the first energy crisis.  Industrial services in China require energy resources from West and South Asia and Beijing was always willing to work with any government which could guarantee more of a supply even if that same government had hostile relations with societies in the region or beyond.  And in Beijing's frame of mind this is perfectly convenient since both Teheran-Islamabad have the same enemies as Beijing, the West-India-Russia.  All three have long been China's international rivals therefore Beijing has led the support for the nuclear/ballistic missile programs of both countries.  And if Teheran-Islamabad are successful then industrial concerns in China will have easier access to raw materials as the three of them will stand to increase their presence in global energy markets.

The FT article reported China National Nuclear Corporation said both governments, China-Pakistan, had signed an agreement to finance the construction of the two new reactors in February.  Last year, Shanghai Nuclear Engineering Research and Design Institute admitted it had been hired to design the new reactors.  Beijing has since, for appearances sake, has informed the diplomatic community in Beijing there could be possible problems in bringing these new facilities online but in reality it is Beijing's attempt to ensure Pakistan will be able to control and export more of the resources from the sub-continent to China.

Mark Hibbs of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace explained the administration of President Barack Obama will not oppose the new construction because it wants to keep Islamabad supporting Washington's war effort in Afghanistan.  Islamabad pretends to support the Pentagon presence there, not only to receive massive amounts of military aid, which Pakistan will use against India, but Teheran-Islamabad-Beijing have always realized as long as NATO is committed there it reduces the chances of any NATO offensive action against Iran especially since the NATO bases are within easy range of Iran's missiles.

night watch:  rfn=CAIRO -  The Foreign Ministry in Egypt released this statement, obtained by Xinhua, regarding the concerns of Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul Gheit on the prospects for a wider war in the region this year.  The Foreign Minister "has conveyed in his message the anxiety which many Lebanese feel over...the mounting bellicose tone in the media and other forms of tensions which warns of a looming threat."  The "bellicose tones" are the result of reports two weeks ago by the Kuwait daily Al-Rai that Damascus had been shipping Scud ballistic missiles to Hezbollah in Lebanon.  The missile carries a one ton warhead and when fired from northern Lebanon can still reach all of Israel.  The regional situation has become so immediate Washington has, since March, summoned the most senior Syrian diplomat for explanations four times and has sent high level officials to Damascus.  Foreign Minister Gheit has stupidly dismissed the Scud missile reports as "laughable lies" and Ynet News mentioned Cairo has announced it will stand by Lebanon in case of an Israeli attack.

Syria's leadership has never made any secret of its close military relations with Teheran, which reach back thirty years, and have been made more serious by the signing of security agreements and establishing a Damascus-Teheran joint military command.  INN reports that with the Turkey-Syria maneuvers now underway and with the Lebanon government solidfying its working relationship with Hezbollah, Israel is now confronted by a monolith axis comprising of Turkey-Lebanon-Syria-Iran.  Gheit was in Luxembourg Monday meeting the Foreign Ministers of Spain-France and according to the Lebanese paper A-Nahar the three were discussing ways to protect Lebanon.  But I suspect the Foreign Ministers of Spain-France are really more concerned about the 12,000 European troops in south Lebanon which have ignored Damascus-Teheran rearming Hezbollah after the 2006 fighting.

But none of the Foreign Ministers who met in Luxembourg will be laughing when Israel uses its pre-emptive attack doctrine on the Scud missiles and related military facilities in Syria despite Syria President Bashar al-Assad saying Damascus has "surprises" for Israel during the coming war.  On paper Syria can launch 60 ballistic missiles and 600 tactical missiles in one day but with Israel's excellent intelligence information and surveillance capabilities, not to mention its initial air attacks, it will be President Assad who will be surprised.  Not to mention the Egyptian administration of President Hosni Mubarak which is now jumping on the anti-Israel bandwagon.  Damascus-Teheran want Cairo to open the Rafah Terminal on the Gaza/Egypt border which President Mubarak and Gheit refuse to do since it would mean working with Islamic radical elements. 

But those are political forces supported by every Muslim government in the region, with the exception of Cairo, and they do not welcome or take seriouly Egypt's new anti-Israel posturing.  And just before Israel began its Operation Cast Lead offensive into Gaza December 2008 both Damascus-Teheran openly sponsored anti-Egypt/anti-Mubarak demonstrations.  When Teheran orders Hamas to attack the terminal again Mubarak/Gheit will declare war, but not on Israel, on Iran.

rfn=Baghdad -  "Unless this is resolved, the country will be thrown into deep problems, with extreme forces getting into the action."  Hurriyet reports that was the warning from former Iraq Prime Minister Dr. Iyad Allawi speaking from Ankara after the Iraq High Election Commission announced the rejection of 52 candidates from the March 7 election.  Allawi's cross sectarian coalition Iraqiya list led the election  and he is opposed to the manual recount announced for Baghdad and he added votes from most of the provinces around the country are being disputed also.  I doubt if Dr. Allawi and the other political leaders are surprised since they all have had constant contact with Teheran and these latest decisions are being made by election official Ahmad Chalabi who is noted for his close contacts with Iran's government.

Teheran has begun to deliberately fill the political limbo and vacuum with violence as there have now been calls by the head of the Sadr Trend and Mahdi Army, cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, for his followers to re-emerge and protect mosques, shrines, market places and cities.  Teheran has also instructed him to accuse Washington of the latest instability.  Teheran intends to use heavy fighting in Iraq to reduce Washington's chances of participating in combined Allied operations against Iran.

Editors Note:  Due to my participation in an international business conference the next article may not appear until Saturday.  Thank you.

night watch:  rfn=ANTAKYA -  The Turkey General Staff (TGS) has announced three days of joint exercises will begin Tuesday with Syria.  Hurriyet/AFP reports the reason given is to guarantee border security.  "To boost cooperation and confidence between the land forces of the two countries and raise border units level of training and ability to work together."  But there are no security problems on the Syria-Turkey border so what is the real reason, strategy behind this?  In view of Ankara's increasingly vocal and hostile relations with Israel this can only mean Ankara will actively support Damascus in its next war with Jersusalem which can break out at any time due to the shipment of Scud missiles by Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon as reported by the Kuwait paper Al-Rai two weeks ago.  Turkey's support for Syria may not involve sending ground units or air support but instead attempt to send supplies.  Antakya (Antioch), on the Turkish/Syrian boder, not far from the Mediterranean, is only eighty miles north of Lebanon.

rfn=Gracanica -  Another inflammatory issue has erupted betweeon Kosovo/Serbia in the former Yugoslavia as B92 reports thousands of Serbians in central Kosovo demonstrated at Gracanica against the demolishing of mobile phone networks that serve the Serbian community in the south-central part of the province.  The networks are based in Belgrade.  This is being done by the Albanian government in Pristina which declared the province independent of the Serbia government in Belgrade two years ago and they have received recognition from some NATO-EU (European Union) member states in the Brussels based organizations.  This disabling action began last week and is being performed by the Kosovo Regulatory Agency for Telecommunications with the support of the Kosovo Police Service (KPS).

Serbia's Kosovo District Chief, Goran Arsic, who attended the rally of 3,000, warned the Albanian government in Pristina and that its measures "are an introduction for pressures later" on the Serbian communities in the province.  Arsic stated this is part of Pristina's plan to "integrate the schools and health system as well as other institutions of our country in the province into their own system."  Nearly 40 base stations of Telekom Srbija and Telenor have been damaged which has caused nearly 100,000 Serbs in central Kosovo and south of the Ibar river to have no mobile phone service.  The service in northern Kosovo, which is majority Serbian, is still functioning.  Serbia Prime Minister Mirko Cvetkovic announced Belgrade will do "literally everthing, short of force,to help Serbs in the enclaves."

rfn=Kosovska Mitrovica -  "Telekom workers are protecting and guarding our property because there are indications that the operation will extend into the north."  B92 reports that was the announcement by Ilija Ivanovic with Telekom Srbija speaking to Tanjug news service.  "In my opinion, that should not happen right now, because it would raise tensions and could have unforseeable consequences."  Despite his statement latest reports have mentioned the KPS stating two transmitters in Gorje Vinarce and Gozivoda have just been destroyed by explosions.

rfn=Moscow -  Xinhua reports Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned Teheran of "serious consequences" if Iran's position on its nuclear program does not change.  The article attempted to answer the question 'Where are Russia-Iran relations going?' and the answer is to war since both governments have been fighting over resources in the Caucasus, between the Black-Caspian Sea, since 1994.  Though fighting in the North Caucasus is largely over the action has shifted further south with Teheran supporting the Georgia government in Tbilisi.  There was a small indication of Moscow's response during the brief war with Georgia August 2008 and the way relations are rapidly deteriorating full scale fighting will be under way by this August. 

Moscow's initial response has been to delay the completion of Iran's Bushehr nuclear facility on the Persian Gulf Russia was contracted to build in 1995 and to refuse to deliver the advanced S-300 anti-missile/anti-aircraft weapons system.  The Russia government is aware the system could be used by Teheran to target Russian aircraft.  Moscow's preparations and moves are being directed by the Kissinger-Primakov Strategic Working Group (SWG) established three years ago and represents industrial concerns in the West, led by Berlin, which have long used Russia to export raw materials to them from this region.  One of the first acts of the SWG was to have Russia's strategic bombers begin operations again and they always have rendezvous with NATO aircraft.  This is why relations between Moscow/Teheran are never as great as they pretend.

rfn=Sialkot -  WebIndia123 and the Indo-Asian News Service are reporting Pakistan's military has begun the second phase of its extensive Azm-e-Nou-3 maneuvers which will continue until May 3.  The Army/Air Force exercises began the third week in March and they are the most extensive since Pakistan's independence in 1947.  And they are concentrated on the Punjab border with India near Sialkot.  I suspect the maneuvers are being conducted under the offensive Action Plan of General Pervez Musharraf which he presented to Teheran Feb. 2007.  Beijing is also poised to enter the war and attempt to enforce their claim over India's northeast state of Arunachal Pradesh which China invaded for one month in October 1962 during the dry season.  The monsoon, which is due to begin in May, will prevent any military action in the northeast until it ends in September. 

Last year Delhi positioned two more divisions in its northeast and constructed more air strips.  I expect Teheran/Islamabad to increase infiltration into India's part of Kashmir right after the May 3 maneuvers which will force India to use its hot pursuit policy and attack the militant training bases inside Pakistan.  The heaviest fighting will most likely be from the Punjab north through Jammu-Kashmir.

night watch:  rfn=HARARE -  "Iran secured exclusive uranium rights last month, when the Minister of State for Presidential Affairs, Didymus Mutasa, visited Teheran.  This is when the formal signing of the deal was made, away from the glare of the media."  Haaretz reports that was a Zimbabwe government source on the uranium-oil agreement signed between Harare-Teheran and is now being reported in today's London The Sunday Telegraph.  Zimbabwe ships uranium to Iran and receives oil.  This is similar to the arrangement Teheran made with Pyongyang in return for assistance to Iran's nuclear weapons/ballistic missile programs.  The source continued, "The uranium deal is the culmination of a lot of work dating back to 2007, when Mr. Mugabe visited Teheran in search of fuel.  Now Iran is beginning to reap the benefit. Iranian geologists have been conducting feasibility studies of the mineral for over a year now and we expect them to go ahead with the mining once they are ready."

The Daily Telegraph article mentioned Iran's uranium stockpiles, purchased from South Africa during the 1970's, have been running low.  But I suspect Teheran is actually securing as many sources for uranium as possible, in addition to its own enrichment, because Iran intends to produce nuclear weapons for quite some time.

rfn=Bandar Abbas -  IRNA reports Iran completed its Holy Prophet Five Persian Gulf/Strait of Hormuz maneuvers with the firing of five cruise missiles.  These are probably anti-ship missiles, some of which were fired from the coast and others fired by ships at sea.

night watch:  rfn=PERSIAN GULF -  Phase Three of Iran's Great Prophet Five naval maneuvers in the Persian Gulf/Strait of Hormuz concentrated on combatting an enemy attack.  PressTV Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Ground Forces Commander, Brigadier General Mohammed Pakpour announced his units engaged mock enemy attacks and used smart (guided) artillery shells in defense of the Persian Gulf and islands.  At the same time IRGC Naval Commander, Rear-Admiral Morteza Saffari announced Iran will launch four surface to sea missiles Sunday.  Maneuvers are usually held in the summer, since 2006, but with Allied governments preparing to attack not only Iran, but also other regional governments working closely with Teheran, the maneuvers were held earlier.

rfn=Damascus -  "We are concerned about the broadening nature of cooperation between Syria and Hezbollah.  Providing a wider array of missiles to Hezbollah.  As to the narrower question of do we have evidence of Scuds crossing into Lebanon, that's something...to watch closely."  Ynet/AFP report that was the announcement by a senior U.S. State Department official as Washington continues to publicize its reasons for supporting Israel's pre-emptive attack on Hezbollah-Syria.  News of about the arrival of Scud ballistic missiles to Hezbollah from Syria first came from the Kuwait newspaper Al-Rai two weeks ago and Kuwaiti news publications are some of the best informed on regional developments, they have to be since Kuwait is between Iraq-Iran.

And Damascus has maintained close military relations with Teheran since 1980, beginning with the eight year Iraq/Iran war that started that year and has cooperated with Teheran in preparing/planning to attack not only Israel but U.S. bases in Iraq-Persian Gulf.  Damascus has openly supported the same regional military agenda as Teheran which includes attacks on the 12,000 European troops in South Lebanon.  Ballistic missiles to Hezbollah and an Israel Defense Force (IDF) pre-emptive attack has now become the most likely scenario for the expanded regional war to begin.

rfn=Ramat Gan -  "I will assist anyone in order to lift the strategic and nuclear threat faced by Israel and the enlightened democratic world."  Ynet News reports that was a statement from an unnamed Iranian nuclear scientist who sought and received asylum in Israel.  Israel Deputy Minister Ayoob Kara made this public as he was speaking in Ramat Gan and the scientist is now in a "friendly country".  This is at least the third departure by an Iranian scientist in the past three years and they all leave well informed, not only about the extent of Iran's nuclear weapons production but also concerning Iran's longest range ballistic missiles using satellite guidance systems.  It seems this latest departure involved an Israeli woman of Persian ancestry who used to live in Iran.

rfn=Assaluyeh -  "If the enemies think that by imposing sanctions on the Revolutionary Guards they can achieve their goals, they are mistaken.  Imposing sanctions on the Revolutionary Guards is rather ridiculous because even with all the propaganda they couldn't reach their goal of imposing sanctions on the Islamic Republic.  Today the Revolutionary Guards are proud to have such knowledge and capability that we can easily replace big foreign companies like Total and Shell in taking over big projects at Assaluyeh."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the announcement by senior guard commander Yadollah Jayani speaking over ILNA.  The Revolutionary Guards have not been confined to military services since the end of the Iran/Iraq war in 1988.  They have in fact since performed a major role in reconstruction, import-export and in the oil-gas industry and established the international network which has easily circumvented the military and now economic sanctions the United Nations Security Council can begin to impose next month.

Allied governments are aware of this but are using the sanctions vote and Teheran's response to justify full scale war.  Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has warned Iran will respond differently to any new sanctions and that is why Teheran had these Great Prophet maneuvers in April.

rfn=Teheran -  "I offer my readiness to provide hundreds of believers...to be formal bridges in the Iraqi army or police to protect shrines, mosques, markets, houses and cities.  I call on the Iraqi people to practice self-restraint and not to be dragged into malicious American plots that want to drag Iraq into war and fighting."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the prepared statement by Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, speaking from Teheran and written by Iran's government, after four car bombs hit Sadr City in eastern Baghdad, his main political and support base.  Iraq government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh made no comment.  Iraq political analyst, Hameed Fadhel at Baghdad University, warned al-Sadr's statement was directed at Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki for his government's "failure to protect the people."

rfn=Sadr City -  Teheran timed the car bombs for Friday prayers as hundreds of al-Sadr's followers were on prayer rugs on streets surrounding the organization's headquarters in Sadr City.  Asharq al-Awsat/AP report now those waist high concrete walls have blood stained prayer rugs draped over them and houses have walls covered with pieces of charred flesh and hair.  Six funeral processions left Sadr City Saturday morning, right after dawn, for the Shia religious city of al-Najaf 100 miles (160 km) south of Baghdad.  In the past year Teheran has had the Mahdi Army, 60,000 members, form the Promised Day Brigades which are designed to attack only U.S. forces.  That is why Teheran had al-Sadr mention only "American plots".  Renewed heavy fighting in Iraq is one of the many war scenarios Iran Parliament Speaker Ali Larjani says they have planned for Washington.

night watch:  rfn=PERSIAN GULF -  "Today, our divers carried out special exercises with mines.  We are to enter the two day tactical phase, which includes interception drills with light rocket launchers, missile launchers and vessels capable of launching torpedoes."  PressTV reports that was Brigadier-General Alireza Tangsriri on the second day of Iran's Great Prophet V naval maneuvers in the Persian Gulf/Strait of Hormuz designed to attack international shipping and enemy forces.  But what is especially significant was the news photo accompanying the article which showed Qatar General Abdul Rahim Ibrahim Hassan Ali leading a Qatari delegation observing the maneuvers.  For the past several years, ever since these yearly maneuvers began in 2006, Teheran-Qatar conducted high level meetings on mutual defense cooperation against Western military bases.  Iran has the same military arrangements with the Oman government in Muscat. 

Usually these maneuvers are not held until the summer but because relations with Russia-West-United Nations are deteriorating so rapidly they are being conducted this month.  The exercises are due to end by Saturday after which I expect violence to increase in both Iraq-Afghanistan.  Teheran is preparing to carry out the order given last Sunday by Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in which he ordered foreign forces to leave both countries.

rfn=Sadr City -  Shia mosques in Baghdad were the primary targets in a series of explosions across the capital along with several bomb attacks in western Anbar province which borders Syria.  WebIndia123/DPA report Iraq security officials are saying at least 54 people have been killed and 180 wounded while according to Al-Arabiya television 67 have been killed and 112 wounded.  Five of the six explosions to hit the capital were near Shia mosques.  Two car bombs were in al-Horriya and al-Rahmaniya area and an attack just hundreds of yards away from the office of the Sadr Trend headed by cleric Muqtada al-Sadr in Sadr City, eastern Baghdad.  Teheran timed the explosions for Friday prayers deliberately targeting the worshippers praying in the mosque.  There were also explosions in al-Zaafaraneya district in south Baghdad at the Hussayneyet al-Sadrein mosque.  Other attacks were at the shopping mall in al-Dora and a suicide attack in al-Amin.  Earlier Friday there were seven explosions in the city of al-Khalidiya 50 miles (80 km) west of the capital in Anbar province.

Al Jazeera's correspondent in Baghdad Mike Hanna observed, "At this time it would appear that the attacks are being targeted at the civilian population in general, rather than any sectarian basis.  But at this stage it would appear to be an opportunistic attempt to take advantage of the ongoing political uncertainty because there is no agreement about forming a government.  Iraq had been hoping to celebrate its democratic elections, but at the moment everybody is deeply concerned about the present instability which it appears is being filled by violent acts."  This is exactly how Teheran had planned to fill the political vacuum which is the message they conveyed to leaders from the different coalitions which visited Teheran before and after the March 7 election.  These same political party leaders will support Iran's claim there can be no stability until the foreign forces are forced to leave.

rfn=Washington -  "Everyone, from the Israeli Prime Minister straight through to the British Prime Minister to the President of Russia, everyone agrees the next steps we should take is the UN sanctions route.  I believe we will see a sanction regime carried out by the end of the month, beginning next month."  Ynet News report that was the announcement by U.S. Vice-President Joseph Biden speaking over the ABC News program 'The View'.  When asked about a possible attack on Iran by Israel Vice-President Biden answered he did not believe Israel would launch an attack until after sanctions proved ineffective.  This is why Iran scheduled its maneuvers for earlier this year since Teheran has warned it will not respond peacefully to the next round of sanctions.  Biden even said Beijing is now prepared to give its support for sanctions.  Governments in the West are deathly afraid of starting full scale war with Iran and decided several years ago to adopt a defensive posture.  That of course has provided Teheran with more time to prepare.

rfn=Beirut -  Ynet News report Lebanon Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, in an interview with the French publication L'Orient-Le Jour, announced the government of Lebanon is now very much part of the Iran-Syria regional military axis and this was acknowledged during his recent meeting with Syria President Bashar al-Assad.  "We belong to this Axis in able to maintain national unity, we shall stay in this Axis."  Jumblatt should have added "we shall die in this Axis" since Jerusalem has corrected the problem with its military leadership in the field which limited the success of its invasion into Lebanon in 2006 after Hezbollah launched an attack.

rfn=Shechem -  INN reports sources within the Palestinian Authority (PA) on the West Bank, its main base, are warning members of Hamas have infiltrated PA units and are planning an uprising similar to the 2007 fighting in Gaza in which Hamas easily defeated PA forces.  These reports have been made known through WorldNetDaily which said PA members have helped Hamas establish an organizational infrastructure in the West Bank city of Shechem and assisted Hamas in smuggling $1 million for weapons purchasing.  Hamas is controlled by Damascus-Teheran and they obviously want to see if they can use the West Bank as another area to force the Israel Defense Force (IDF) to commit units.  Israel would then be engaged on three fronts:  Gaza-Northern Front (Lebanon-Syria)-West Bank.

Hamas has actively been recruiting members of the PA military wing including elite troops which were trained by the U.S. including at least one member of the Presidential Guard.  This comes as Hamas' leadership calls for reconciliation with the PA which is supported by Jerusalem-Washington in their effort to combat Muslim extremism.  But in the military-political reality behind the scenes Hamas has also rebuilt its military organizational infrastructure in other cities in Judea-Samaria and they have recently obtained hundreds of high powered assault rifles.

rfn-Tallinn -  "We have said time and time again that the North Koreans should not engage in provocative actions and that they should return to Six Party talks.  I hope that there is no talk of war, there is no action or miscalculation that could produce a response that might lead to conflict."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the warning from U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton speaking from the Estonia capital of Tallinn during a meeting of NATO Foreign Ministers as she referred to the March 26 sinking of the South Korea warship Cheonan.  Pyongyang has denied involvement in the deaths of the 46 sailors killed and I believe them since the ship was deliberately positioned in the sensitive maritme boundary between the North/South and this could have been planned by Washington-Seoul in order to establish reasons to attack the North and its nuclear facilities, ending once and for all North Korea's nuclear exports to Syria-Iran.

rfn=Blue House -  But for the moment South Korea President Lee Myung-bak has (Swissinfo/Reuters) stated his government is not planning any revenge attack, "Just as the investigation is being conducted with international cooperation, we'll try cooperating with the international community in taking necessary measures when the results are out."  The last part of the Cheonan is to be lifted out by the weekend which will determine what caused the explosion but already, yesterday, media reports circulated the findings of South Korea's Military Intelligence report sent to the Presidential Blue House which stated it was a 'human torpedo' unit launched from a small North Korea submarine.  The weekend report will confirm this and that could be followed by an ultimatum from Seoul that Pyongyang should immediately return to the Six Party Talks:  Russia-China-Japan-North-South Korea-US and end North Korea's nuclear weapons production.

rfn=Beijing -  If North Korea's military government refuses, and it probably will, then Washington-Seoul will stage another 'provocation' that will be blamed on the North and a combined offensive by at least the U.S.-South Korea will begin with the chances of Japan participating extremely likely.  According to a North Korean defector, Hwang Jang-yop, former top official who defected in 1997, the North's military has not been well maintained and a lot of troops are demoralized.  Mass defections are expected to the South and waves of refugees into China as the government collapses.  Helping Beijing to prepare could be the reason for Russia Deputy Foreign Minister Alexei Borodavkin's arrival into Beijing Tuesday.  Xinhua reports he has been meeting China Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi and Vice-Foreign Minister Wu Dawei.  A variety of scenarios are being discussed.

night watch:  rfn=STRAIT OF HORMUZ -  "The radar evading, high speed Ya Mahdi vessel is able to track and target the enemy's surface vessels in a smart way and destroy them."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the warning aired by Iran state broadcaster IRIB during the first of three days of naval maneuvers in the Persian Gulf/Strait of Hormuz designated Great Prophet 5.  Jerusalem Post reports Iran has been conducting these large scale maneuvers since 2006 and always in the summer until this year when, for some unexplained reason, they have been held in April.  I suspect the reason is reports the Pentagon has been shipping hundreds of bunker bombs to the air/naval base Diego Gracia in the Indian Ocean and that the Pentagon has announced it can attack 10,000 targets in Iran within a few hours.  Ali-Reza Tangsiri, spokesman for the maneuvers stated the Ya Mahdi was a remote controlled vessel whose missiles can blow a 7 meter (21 ft) hole in the hull of an enemy warship.

ILNA news agency stated, "These vessels are regarded as the enemy's nightmare."  More than 300 various high speed boats were taking part in the exercises as news videos showed them engaged in the scenario of attacking a large ship that had entered Iran's territorial waters.  Western military analysts have been saying for years this is Iran's military use of "asymmetric warfare", non-conventional small attack craft, with air support, attacking a much larger enemy that is less maneuverable trapped in a confined space like the Strait of Hormuz.  But Theodore Karasik, Rsearch Director at the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis explained, "It plays to their strengths.  What they are trying to do is deny and deter access to the strait and surrounding areas."  I will be very surprised if this summer passes before we witness how effective these tatics are.  I don't believe Allied governments want to give Iran any more time to prepare.

rfn=Istanbul -  What would be of immense help to Teheran is if Western governments are caught up in new fighting in the former Yugoslavia which would reduce the forces Allied governments could commit to the Persian Gulf.  A meeting that is possibly being used to orchestrate the next security crisis could take place Saturday in Istanbul as B92/Tanjug report three heads of state:  Serbia President Boris Tadic, Chairman of Bosnia Presidency Haris Silajdzic and Turkey President Abdullah Gul will meet in Istanbul apparently to discuss the strengthening of peace and stability in the Balkans.  Since all three governments have always been opposed to the NATO troop presence this meeting will probably plan ways to actually weaken NATO as the new fighting may revolve around, not Kosovo, but the breakdown of the Bonsia-Herzegovina government, something diplomats and international obervers have been warning about for the past three years.  A breakdown being planned by these three heads of state and their respective governments.

The three headed Presidency, established in 1995 divided between Croatian-Serbian-Muslim officials, never had any chance of functioning effectively was always fragile and intead of reducing nationalistic decision making actually entrenched it.  The only question became how could the Serbia government in Belgrade, Turkey's government in Ankara and the Muslim leadership in Sarajevo best use the next war?  Their answer is to coordinate their reasons for opposing the Brussels led alliance and welcome the military support from Teheran, which signed a security agreement with Belgrade in 2006 as did Athens.  At the same time Ankara will loudly announce their reasons for not cooperating with Brussels but instead use the fighting against NATO to re-assert Turkey's influence over the former Yugoslavia by supporting any of the six governments that came out of the divided state. 

Anatolia news agency has reported this meeting has been arranged by Turkey Foreign Minister Professor Ahmet Davutoglu who announced the Saturday meeting will be of immense importance for the whole of the Balkans and that he has been in constant telephone communication with the governments involved.  Professor Davutoglu is author of the book "Strategic Depth" which openly advocates Ankara should exert major influence in every region around Turkey especially the Balkans, as in the days of the Ottoman Empire.  But that is not possible with Brussels in the way.

rfn=Seoul -  WebIndia123 and Britain's Sky News are now reporting intelligence reports from South Korea have completed their investigation of the March 26 explosion which sank the South Korean 1,200 ton warship Cheonan in in disputed waters between the North/South, was actually caused by 'human torpedoes'.  A source announced, "The military intelligence has made the report to the Blue House, the Presidential residence-and to the Defense Ministry immediately after the sinking of the Cheonan, that its clearly the work of North Korea's military."  The human torpedoes are launched from small submarines that can navigate so closely to the target the explosion is expected to destroy the attackers also but Chosun Ilbo reports the explosives can also be timed to allow the attackers to escape.  Forty-six South Korean sailors were killed in the attack, the largest peacetime naval loss for Seoul. 

Pyongyang has denied causing the attack but the investigation, assisted by Washington, believes it was conducted to retaliate after a sea skirmish last November.  A brief armed conflict could result as Swissinfo/Reuters report South Korea President Lee Myung-Bak has promised a 'resolute' response which could involve more than just discontinuing nuclear negotiations.  President Myung-Bak, all during his term in office, has taken a hardline position against the North and demanded they disarm their remaining nuclear arsenal.  And this latest incident could have been a deliberate attempt by Seoul-Washington to position a warship in a sensitive area hoping North Korea would attack it, as an excuse to launch a pre-planned air-ground offensive against the North.  Though North Korea possesses a large military a North Korean defector has admitted it has not been well maintained and its troops are demoralized. 

On paper the North can fire thousands of artillery rounds and missiles at both South Korea and Japan but instead there will be massive troop defections to the South.  Xinhua reports South Korea Defense Ministry spokesman Won Tae-Jae has announced as a result of this latest incident Seoul has decided to increase its military presence on five islands off its West Coast near the disputed boundary in the Yellow Sea including positioning self-propelled K-9 howitzers and increasing surveillance radar.  Again the Cheosan incident took place in a disputed maritme boundary area which has seen two armed incidents in the past ten years in addition to the naval skirmish last November.  Allied governments know if Pyongyang did not have a military government it would no longer be inclined to export nuclear material to Iran-Syria.

night watch:  rfn=BANDAR ABBAS -  "The three day maneuver will start in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz on Thursday."  Xinhua/PressTV report that was the announcement by Iran Brigadier General Hossein Salami the Deputy Commander of the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).  This will occur less than a week after Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadnejad publicly ordered foreign forces to leave Iraq-Afghanistan.  The maneuvers have been designated 'Great Prophet 5' and are the fifth, and possibly last, in a series of military exercises Teheran has been concducting for more than a year as it prepares for full scale war with the West.  Curiously General Salami then added, "The country is prepared to stage joint drills with its southern neighbors."  That could be Qatar-Oman which have established close military relations with Iran for the past several years since their governments agree completely with Teheran's foreign policy agenda of removing the West's military presence from the entire region and attacks on international shipping. 

They are mistaken, however, if they assume only the West will respond militarily since Tokyo has consistently expressed its serious concern to Teheran on continued access to the Gulf which controls 40% of the world's oil traffic and Japan's industry is extremely dependent on its delivery.  This is one of Japan's economic lifelines and in 2004 Tokyo changed its foreign policy from defensive to offensive when Teheran announced that year Iran wanted China to become the main importer of Iranian oil instead of Japan.

Iran Defense Minister Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi also announced, "The drill is aimed at preparations of Iran's armed forces and IRGC will test new weapons to further strengthen the security of the region."  Actually Teheran is attempting to secure its nuclear/ballistic facilities and military bases from Allied attacks.  General Vahidi is probably aware the Pentagon, since the beginning of the year, has been shipping hundreds of bunker bombs to its air/naval bases in Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.

rfn=Washington -  "The most senior Syrian diplomat present in Washington today, the Deputy Chief of Mission Zuhair Jabbour, was summoned to the Department of State to review Syria's provocative behaviour concerning the potential transfer of arms to Hezbollah."  Asharq al-Awsat reports those were just some of the remarks by State Department spokesman Gordon Duguid Tuesday.  Duguid stressed this was the fourth time in recent months Washington has summoned either the Syria Amassador or its highest ranking diplomat on this issue, the most alarming and immediate issue in the region since pre-emptive attack is part of Israel's defense doctrine and a small demonstration was made September 2007 when the Israel Air Force (IAF) destroyed Syria's plutonium weapons facility.  Duguid continued,  "The United States condemns in the strongest terms the transfer of arms, and especially ballistic missile systems such as the Scud, from Syria to Hezbollah.  We call for an immediate cessation of any arms transfers to Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations within the region.  Our dialogue with Syria on this issue has been frank and sustained, we expect the same in return." 

The official response from the Syrian government has been to deny all.  But at the same time United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is also expressing his concerns in such a way that it seems the UN has begun the process of justifying any Israeli military response not only against Hezbollah but by targeting Syria as well.  The Secretary-General stated the UN had received reports about weapons being transferred "across the land borders" but is not yet certain if these are Scud missiles.  He then warned, "The existence of armed groups outside of government control is a fundamental anomaly that stands against the democratic aspirations of Lebanon and threatens domestic peace.  It is also an obstacle to the prosperity and welfare that the Lebanese people deserve."  The Hezbollah militia has approximately 40,000 members which Jerusalem now regards as another division within the Syrian Army.  They possess as many rockets as they have members, rockets of a variety of ranges and this potential transfer of Scud missiles means the secondary explosions after IAF attacks will be larger.

rfn=Cairo -  But the unoffical response of the Syrian government is this surprise visit, reported by Haaretz and numerous Arab media sources, of Syria President Bashar al-Assad to Cairo 'within hours' due to President Assad's fear of an IDF pre-emptive attack.  I don't see how Assad can be surprised as he sends missiles that have a one ton warhead to one of Israel's deadliest enemies.  Perhaps he assume the IDF would limit their attacks to Lebanon as in 2006 but Jerusalem has been warning Damascus for more than a year Israel holds Syria fully responsible for Hezbollah's actions.  But Assad has been out of touch with reality for quite some time which is why he announced, after the 2006 fighting between Hezbollah/Israel during that summer, that Arab leaders who refuse to support Hezbollah were "half men."

The criticism was mainly directed a Egypt President Hosni Mubarak which is why sources say the Egyptian government will first demand an apology from Assad before any meeting takes place.  Ynet News and the Arab publication al-Quds al-Arabi are now reporting Saudi Arabia King Abdullah is also scheduled to be in Egypt at the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh to visit President Mubarak who is recovering from recent gall bladder surgery.  I suspect Assad will attempt to find out the response from both leaders how they intend to respond during the coming war which could break out in any moment.  Assad may not inform Mubarak that the Palestinian militant group in Gaza, Hamas, has orders to attack Egypt's control of the Rafah Terminal on the Gaza/Egypt border again as in January 2008.

President Mubarak has refused to open the terminal ever since Hamas took control over Gaza in 2007.  Mubarak hates radical groups especially since his predecessor Anwar al-Sadat was assassinated by radicals in October 1981 and they cited the Ayatollah Khomeini who led the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran as their inspiration.  Just before Israel's Operation Cast Lead offensive into Gaza, December 2008-January 2009 both Damascus-Teheran conducted anti-Egypt/anti-Mubarak demonstrations due to his close relations with the West.  Any major war in the region would cause a political earthquake in Egypt that would more than seriously shake the imperial Mubarak administration.  Due to the large secular opposition, headed by Minister of Intelligence General Omar Suleiman, the political repercussions will overthrow Mubarak in a civil war since some of the military remains loyal to the President a former head of the Air Force. 

Riyadh will lead the regional recognition of the new government and since the House of Saud has close relations with the Palestinian community and Teheran there will be no serious consequences, during or after the war, in Saudi Arabia.

night watch:  rfn=ANKARA -  "Turkey has always supported Iran's stance when it comes to the nuclear program."  PressTV reports that was the proud and eager statement of Turkey Foreign Minister Professor Ahmet Davutoglu, author of the book "Strategic Depth" and leading agent of Ankara's offensive diplomatic strategy of working with Teheran in every area on regional/international issues.  Foreign Minister Davutoglu was speaking at a joint (operations) press conference in Teheran with Iran Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki as both officials continue to promote the official lie of their governments that Iran's nuclear weapons program is just to produce peaceful energy and the issue can be solved through negotiations.  In no way is Turkey's military-political leadership ignorant as to the true nature of Iran's nuclear production and the real intention of Teheran's foreign policy, which is to defeat the West militarily.

The West is the main rival of both Ankara-Teheran for regional influence with both governments realizing that influence can be defeated by working together.  Turkey-Iran have stated for years the strategic potential of both nations becoming the main influence, not only in West Asia (Middle East) but in other regions as well including the Balkans where Teheran signed a security agreement with Belgrade in 2006 and Ankara has increased its relations with the same.  For his part Foreign Minister Mottaki stated both governments have the same position on every regional issue including Iraq.  IRNA even reported Mottaki announced both governments wanted to do everything they can to promote peace and tranquility in Iraq when the reality is of course quite the opposite.  Because this press conference comes just two days after Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Sunday ordered foreign forces to leave both Iraq-Afghanistan.

Neither Ankara-Teheran want to see the U.S. forces withdraw peacefully and in strength since that would mean Washington could play a prominent military role in countering Iran-Turkey in other regional theatres like the Balkans when fighting resumes there over Kosovo.  Mottaki somehow even managed to keep a straight face when he said Iran's position on its nuclear program is "crystal clear" and is working completely with the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna and that Iran has no problems with inspections.  The only time Mottaki came close to the truth was when he warned the West it would be a mistake to impose more sanctions and that if so then Europe should be prepared to face no economic relations with Iran.  Commerce between Turkey-Iran is expected to reach $20 billion this year which will help Iran weather the consequences of no trade with Europe including its leading European trade partner Germany.

rfn=Pyongyang -  Swissinfo/Reuters report, according to South Korea's YTN news service, North Korea may have begun preparations for a third nuclear test in February.  Though South Korea's Foreign Ministry is not taking the reports of a possible test in May-June seriously the information has come from an unnamed diplomatic source.  It is known, however that a third test will greatly reduce the North's fissile material which is needed for an explosion, therefore Pyongyang will have almost no material left for export to Iran-Syria.  It is suspected the test is merely for the purpose of attracting Beijing's and the world's attention, perhaps to remind the international community North Korea still exists.

rfn=Leh -  The new chief of the India Army General V. K. Singh has begun a three day tour of Jammu-Kashmir beginning with a visit to Leh in the upper regions of the mountainous area near the Pakistan-China border.  WebIndia123 report General Singh is to receive a briefing and his visit is caused by increased infiltration attempts by Islamic groups from Pakistan's part of Kashmir.  Delhi is aware Pakistan is still conducting the largest military manevuers in Pakistan's history and the 45 day exercises are scheduled to end early in May.  Infiltration attempts are likely to increase right after which may force India to use its hot pursuit policy and attack the 42 training bases inside Pakistan used to train Islamic units.  Pakistan's maneuvers revolve around the Action Plan of General Pervez Musharraf which he presented to Teheran Feb. 2007.

night watch:  rfn=BAGHDAD -  The political drama ordered by Teheran for post-election Iraq has been stagnation and stalemate as Asharq al-Awsat report the leading coalition, Al-Iraqiya List, is now threatening to withdraw from the entire political process.  Al-Iraqiya is the secular coalition headed by former Prime Minister Dr. Iyad Allawi which won the most Parliament seats, 91, in the March 7 election.  163 seats are needed in the 325 member Parliament to form a government and Al-Iraqiya seemed poised to form a coalition government with both Kurdish and Shia groups headed by the radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr until political leaders from all the parties made trips to Teheran.  Maysun al-Damaluji, spokesman for Al-Iraqiya, is now warning they are considering withdrawing from "the entire political process, including, withdrawal from the next Iraqi Parliament, if some Parliamentary blocs insist on concluding an alliance between them in an attempt to exclude or marginalize it."

She was speaking by telephone from Baghdad and continued, "We consider the alliance between Iraqi Nation Alliance (INA) (led by Ammar al-Hakim, the Iraq Islamic Supreme Council [IISC] and the State of Law Coalition [SLC] led by PM Nuri al-Maliki) a sectarian alignment since they represent a single sectarian component." (Shia Community) "This is the only factor that brings them together which means the marginalization or exclusion of the other political components in Iraqi society.  Al-Iraqiya List does not give legitimacy to such an alignment and will not take part in any government the alliance forms and which takes Iraq back to the pre-2005 atmospheres, something we reject totally."  Maysun then referred to, "The statement of Al-Sadr Trend Leader Muqtada al-Sadr yesterday (the day before yesterday) that he would oppose any sectarian alliance and his description of the INA and SLC alliance as sectarian that would marginalize the others."

This means the Sadr Trend could follow Iraqiya List and also withdraw from the political process which would open up the possibility of a call by al-Sadr for his Mahdi Army militia to not only emerge but to request armed support from Teheran to stabilize the situation.  Sadr Trend would have announced the main cause for the instability is Washington and accuse the U.S. of supporting the sectarian divisions in order to continue justifying its troop presence.  And that is the real reason Teheran is staging this latest political drama, by creating reasons for Iran to intervene militarily.  And this comes the day after Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ordered all "foreign forces" to leave Iraq-Afghanistan.

rfn=Baghdad -  "They change their methods periodically because most of their plans and tactics have been discovered.  I believe they are already searching for another method of attack, maybe churches or bridges.  Our forces are focusing on the renting of apartments and buildings."  Asharq al-Awsat reports that was the announcement by Baghdad Security spokesman Major-General Qassim Atta speaking to AFP after some of the latest bomb attacks in the city were caused by explosives placed in shops and rented apartments.  Election day 25 people were killed by explosions planted in that manner and 35 more were killed April 6 the same way.  The U.S. military is now calling them HBIED (house borne improvised explosive device) that is now taking its place alongside the car bomb.  This could also begin to take place in Afghanistan since Iran has often used the tactics in Iraq then had the Taliban trained in them.

An Iraq Army officer has admitted checkpoints are not an effective measure.  "When the Army and Police have doubts about a car, they search the trunk, which is seen by the naked eye, but they ignore many other parts of the car that may be filled with explosives."

rfn=Bhamial Sector -  "Two rockets were fired from the Pakistan side Sunday night.  It was followed by weapons firing into Indian territory.  Rifle firing is very rare from Pakistan and it happened for a long time."  WebIndia123 reports that was the announcement by Border Security Force (BSF) Punjab range Deputy Inspector General Jagir Singh speaking to IANS Monday.  General Singh said BSF units retaliated with 800-900 rounds of automatic rifle fire of their own as this is the first incident since January when Pakistan units fired into India's Punjab near Amritsar just south of Kashmir.  Though the next war between the two countries could begin as a result of Pakistan troops providing cover fire for Islamic infiltrators into Kashmir heavier fighting could take place in the Punjab as a result of a Pakistan invasion.  And that could be the main feature of the offensive Action Plan of Pakistan General Pervez Musharraf which he presented to Teheran in 2007.

I actually believe Islamabad has been waiting for Iran to complete its perparations to enter the conflict and these firing incidents into India is a signal preparations are complete.  But right now Pakistan is still conducting its largest air-ground maneuvers since independence in 1947.  The maneuvers are scheduled to end in early May and I suspect cover fire/infiltration to increase right after which will force Delhi to use its hot pursuit and cold start war policy.  Beijing is also prepared to enter since China's government renewed its claim over the northeast India state of Arunachal Pradesh in 2006.  China invaded the area for one month in October 1962 during the dry season.

night watch:  rfn=JERUSALEM -  "We'll not hesitate to attack Syria if our national security is in jeopardy.  Assad knows that, and he's playing with fire.  We will return Syria to the stone age."  Ynet reports that was just some of the warnings and reasons by an Israeli government Minister to the Sunday Times of London as a result of reports out of Kuwait that Syria had sent Scud ballistic missiles to Hezbollah in Lebanon or is preparing to do so.  The same Minister mentioned Israel "now regards Hezbollah as a division of the Syrian army and that reprisals against Syria will be fast and devastating."  He then went into detail as to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) attack plan by "crippling its power stations, ports, fuel storage and every bit of strategic infrastructure if Hezbollah dares to launch ballistic missiles against us." And Jerusalem has conveyed this warning to Damascus through Ankara-Qatar.  But this warning has probably fallen on deaf ears since Syria President Bashar al-Assad is out of touch with reality as is at least part of his government. 

There was a turning point in 2006 after the month long fighting between Israel/Hezbollah in Lebanon that summer.  The IDF ground offensive was not that effective which reduced losses for Hezbollah and afterward President Assad made an impassioned speech in the Parliament in which he stated Hezbollah had won a great victory and therefore it will be easy for Syria to re-take the Golan Heights lost to Israel in the Six Day war June 1967.  Assad viewed the 2006 action as proof and reassurance of his decision to continue his father's policy of regional military cooperation with Iran since 1980 and the militia group Hezbollah established by Teheran in Lebanon in 1982.  Latest intelligence reports indicate Beirut has absolutely no control over the militia which is not surprising since Lebanon has not had a serious central government since 1975.

In the meantime the IDF has improved its performance in the field since 2006 as its highly successful Operation Cast Lead in Gaza indicated Dec. 2008-January 2009.  And Israel realizes, and is prepared for extremely heavy action on its Northern Front and I believe they are capable of forcing Hezbollah-Syria and Iran's brigade size Rapid Deployment Force of being completely on the defensive.  I expect the IDF to have a breakthrough not only in Lebanon but also in Syria with ground units surrounding both Beirut and Damascus with very little difficulty.

rfn=Teheran -  "They must leave the region and this is not a request but an order and the will of regional nations.  The region has no need for alien troops..."  Al Jazeera reports that was the offensive policy statement by Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad speaking at Iran's annual Army Day celebrations in Teheran Sunday during a review of equipment, ballistic missiles and military units.  Iran's miliary-religious leadership have often complained of the presence of foreign troops in Iraq/Afghanistan ever since 2003 but this is the first time an Iranian President has demanded and ordered them to leave.  This means Teheran believes it has completed military preparations and prepared enough of an offensive against foreign troops in both countries to force them to leave.  During the offensives Iran will be working with the armed groups in both countries Teheran has long supported.

This is why I have so often written that what Teheran had President Ahmadinejad say about Israel and wiping out Zionism was just a distraction, a publicity smokescreen, as Iran was really preparing for full scale, (f)allout war, with the West, including against the 12,000 European troops in south Lebanon.  They arrived after the Rome Conference in 2006.

night watch:  rfn=BAGHDAD -  The point man of Teheran's regional-international policies, Majlis (Parliament) Speaker Ali Larijani, met in Teheran with Iraq Ambassador Mohammad Majid al-Sheikh.  IRNA and Majlis News and Media Bureau reports Larijani targeted the "alien forces" in Iraq and the region as being the cause of terrorism and instability.  The reason why these discussions have such significance is because it was Larijani who announced a year ago Teheran had a number of war scenarios planned for Washington.  Though both officials know the U.S. has scheduled a troop withdrawal for late 2011 I do not believe Teheran wants to see these 96,000 troops in Iraq active in other regional war theatres and the head of Iran's Armed Forces warned no U.S. soldier will be permitted to leave Iraq-Afghanistan alive when war becomes more direct.

When U.S. President George W. Bush began mouthing off about attacking Iran as an "option on the table" after Saddam Hussein was removed in 2003, an official in Iran's Defense Ministry stated Teheran will not let the U.S. attack first.  If Iran can have heavy fighting resume in Iraq it will keep the Pentagon on the defensive and reduce the chances of Washington conducting combined operations with other Allied governments.  Ambassador Majid al-Sheikh indicated Teheran can play an important role in ending Iraq's problems (the occupation) and called for mutual (military) cooperation.  It was Larijani who visited Cairo and Egypt just before Iran ordered Hamas to attack the Rafah Terminal on the Gaza/Egypt border January 2008.  Larijani was in Egypt supposedly to improve relations between Teheran/Cairo.

rfn=Baabda Palace -  "The participants agreed to restrict discussions on the issue to the Dialogue Committee and commit to calm political rhetoric."  Hurriyet and Lebanon's The Daily Star report that was a Presidential statement as Lebanon's cabinet and political leaders met in Baabda Palace and all agreed to say nothing about the reports out of Kuwait concerning the possible Scud missile shipments to Hezbollah in Lebanon.  This has been confirmed by Lebanon's Central News Agency (CNA) and sources in Hezbollah are trying to say the reports from Kuwaits Al-Rai newspaper on the missile shipments were just "media fireworks."  Yesterday they said the missiles are none of Israel's business. The sources are now trying to say Hezbollah is only concentrating on using missiles that, though they have less range than the Scud, they are more accurate like the Fateh 110. 

Though the Fateh has a range of less than a hundred miles it can supposedly be accurate within a 5-10 yard (meters) radius of target as compared with the Scud which is only accurate within three miles (5 km).  But Iran is only concerned about using Hezbollah and whatever missile/rocket arsenal it possesses to keep Israel occupied in Lebanon-Syria in order to reduce the Israel Air Force (IAF) chances of conducting sorties against Iran's nuclear facilities.

rfn=Beijing -  PressTV/Forbes report Beijing has decided to use the trading units of two of China's major energy producers to sell 850,000 barrels of gasoline to Iran in order to reduce the impact of energy sanctions against Iran that are being prepared by the West-Russia.  The firms involved are China Petroleum Corp and its trading unit China oil which will send two $55 million shipments totalling 600,000 barrels and the trading unit of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (Sinopec) which will sell 250,000 barrels through a third party in Singapore.  Iran's oil producing industry lacks major refineries and is consequently unable to meet the demands for gasoline.  China's Central Government has been the main supporter and supplier of technology to Iran's nuclear/ballistic missile weapons program because Beijing has always realized if Iran is successful militarily then three of China's rivals will become weaker, the West-India-Russia. 

Beijing actually hates the West even more than Teheran does and it is not a new hatred.  This is why Chinese diplomats and Foreign Ministry constantly repeat the mantra of a diplomatic solution to Iran's nuclear weapons production.

night watch:  rfn=NORTHERN LEBANON BUNKER -  "What we have is not their businesss."  Sometimes the news is funny.  Asharq al-Awsat/AP report that was the response by Hezbollah government minister in Lebanon Hussein Haj Hassan speaking over Hezbollah's Al-Manar television after Jerusalem-Washington accused Damascus earlier this week of equipping Hezbollah with Scud ballistic missiles that can reach all of Israel.  The Scud has a one ton warhead and Israel was hit by 40 them fired from Iraq during the 1990-91 Gulf War.  It was called a Divine Miracle no lives were lost when some hit Tel Aviv.  Others landed in the Mediterranean or in open desert but these new Scuds, supplied by Syria with guidance systems from Iran, are supposed to be more accurate though there is still the chance of a dud warhead.  Israel of course cannot sit back and wait for these missiles to be fired first since some could also contain a chemical warhead.

Pre-emptive attack is part of the Israel Defense Force (IDF) doctrine and a small example was shown in September 2007 when the Israel Air Force (IAF) destroyed the Syrian plutonium weapons facility staffed with North Koreans and financed by Teheran.  On this latest development Damascus has said Jerusalem has provided no proof Hezbollah now has Scuds.  The shipments were probably detected by Israel's constant surveillance flights over Lebanon but I assume the proof will become more obvious due to the size of the secondary explosions as the missiles are destroyed before launching from northern Lebanon.  That proof could happen this month.  These weapons are Israel's top priority.  In 2006 Hezbollah did have some long range missiles which could have hit Tel Aviv but they were destroyed during the first hour of fighting which is why Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah spends most of his time in an underground bunker.

rfn=New York -  United Nations Ambassadors from the six governments (Russia-China-Germany-France-Britain-U.S.) conducted their third meeting this week on the most serious sanctions yet applied to Iran's weapons production and energy sector.  YnetNews/AP report the latest meeting was fifteen hours after a three hour session on Wednesday in an attempt to close the differences between Berlin-London-Paris-Washington, who advocate strong sanctions and Moscow-Beijing with the later still hesitant to apply severe sanctions.  However that gap seems to be narrowing as Britain's Ambassador Mark Lyall Grant called the latest negotiations "very constructive" and France's Ambassador Gerard Araud stated the meeting went "very well."  The Ambassadors from Russia-China also said the talks went "very well" which could mean there is a difference as to how each government interprets "very well."  Very well from Beijing's standpoint really means no serious sanctions.

Beijing has constantly voiced a diplomatic solution since China's Central Government has been the principal supporter of Iran's nuclear/ballistic missile programs in order to see three of China's rivals weaker, the West-India-Russia.  But Beijing may support some new sanctions as they have always realized the West-Russia have no choice but to ultimately confront Iran militarily and sanctions targeting the energy sector will be a prelude to direct armed conflict.  Moscow's version of sanctions has been to delay the completion of Iran's Bushehr nuclear facility on the Persian Gulf and to refuse delivery of the advanced S-300 anti-missile/anti-aircraft sytem.  Teheran has already warned it's response to serious sanctions will be different from Iran's response to the first three round of sanctions which were so weak Teheran laughed at them.  But that is not the case now as the new sanctions revolve around five measures which are based on the draft resolution sent to the Security Council by Washington in January:

1.  Strengthen the existing arms embargo by extending it to include light weapons.

2.  Target Iran's Revolutionary Guards which controls companies and organizations that have relations with weapons proliferation.

3.  Curtail new investments in Iran's energy sector.

4.  Strenghten sanctions on Iran's shipping including authorization of the seizure of suspect cargo at sea and barring insurance entities that are involved in proliferation activities to attempt to curtail their activities.

5.  Strengthen financial measures that now call on all countries to exercise vigilance in entering into new trade commitments with Iran including granting export credits, guarantees or insurance.

This is of course beyond diplomacy and step 4, stopping ships at sea, is a definite act of war and Teheran will respond accordingly.  That will be followed by ultimatums and counter-ultimatums which could begin even before any incident at sea since a UN sanctions vote seems likely during June when Mexico chairs the Security Council.  It was decided the vote should not take place in May since that would embarrass Lebanon which chairs the Council that month.

rfn=Kandahar -  Xinhua reports the city of Kandahar has just been hit by a third explosion today targeting the city's business district the Aljadid market.  The third explosion was a huge car bomb that rammed a compound used as a base for a private security firm that killed seven foreign employees.  Four other people were killed and 18 injured.  Two other bomb attacks killed five and wounded four.  Teheran is directing the Taliban to concentrate on Kandahar, in the south of the country, since the city is now the main focus of NATO's effort to remove the Taliban from their main urban base.  This comes as serious disputes have erupted between Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai and NATO as to whether the operation should take place.  President Karzai began to state, two years ago, he no longer supported the NATO mission as he once eagerly did due to the many civilian deaths caused by NATO operations.

night watch:  rfn=RIYADH -  "Iran is completely ready to resume negotiations and consultations with the Saudis on the issues of the region."  Asharq al-Awsat reports that was the announcement by Mohammed Omran Charge d'Affaires and First Counselor of the Iran Embassy in Riyadh.  Omran informed the publication Ambassador Jalal Feyrozina, the Director of Gulf and Middle East desk at Iran's Foreign Ministry, conveyed a verbal message from Foreign Minister Manoucher Mottaki to Saudi Arabia Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal, that it is time to increase regional cooperation between the two governments.  This new effort is to concentrate on activation of relations, bringing views and ideas closer and consultation on issues of common concern.  The leading concern is of course Iran's nuclear/ballistic weaponry and on this Omran stated, "...We reassure our neighbors in the Gulf on this issue."  I assume this means Riyadh, and other capitals in the Gulf, will render no military assistance to the U.S. and its bases in the Gulf when they come under attack by Iran when war between Teheran and the West becomes more direct this year.

rfn=Baghdad -  That will be part of the regional chain reaction, the expanded regional war, Teheran-Damascus have been several years in planning which is most likely to be set off with an Israel Defense Force (IDF) pre-emptive attack on the new Scud ballistic missiles Damascus has been reported to be sending to Hezbollah in Lebanon.  But in order to prevent, or at least reduce any combined operation between Washington-Jerusalem against Teheran, the Pentagon bases in Iraq will also come under missile/air attack from Iran.  I suspect those are some of the discussions Teheran is now conducting with Iraq's new political leaders as they continue to file through Teheran after the March 7 election.  The latest to do so is Iraq Deputy Prime Minister Rafie al-Issawi.  Xinhua/PressTV report he met Iran Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani who announced, "A stable and peaceful Iraq is beneficial to all regional countries.  The Islamic Republic of Iran is eager to see the Iraqi people live in peace and security.  Like always, Iran will continue to do its best to help bring better living conditions to Iraq."

Deputy Prime Minister al-Issawi praised Iran's role in the region and stated Teheran can play a major role in helping Iraq overcome its problems.  Both officials agree the main problem remains the U.S. troop occupation and peace is not possible until it is ended and that can only happen if the bases come under heavy and consistent attack.  I would not be surprised if heavy fighting begins this month due to Israel's attack on Lebanon-Syria due to the Scud missile deliveries.

rfn=University of Westminster -  "We have lost two wars.  The war in Basra (Iraq) was a major loss and we are losing the Helmand (Afghanistan) war."  IRNA reports that was just part of the scathing analysis by British Professor Christopher Coker of the London School of Economics and Political Science, professor of International Relations, speaking at the University of Westminster on Wednesday.  Professor Coker stated British troops have been "seriously screwed" in Afghanistan and the mission there has a whole lacks "strategic rationale."  "Far more UK soldiers are dying.  We have lied to both our troops and people.  We spin the results of the war for the public opinion.  The people of Afghanistan, who in the past hated the British, now tend to despise them."  Coker continued by saying the war has no "strategic rationale".  He contends the British soldiers are under-equipped and the US-UK are only continuing the war for "political purposes." 

"It is now the war of Obama and not ours...The U.S. mission in Afghanistan is different than that of NATO because Americans do regime change in the name of state and nation building.  (President Barack) Obama can't be honest with Americans because he's been boxed in.  We have made this war and we have to finish it.  We have to get out of Afghanistan in a way that does not endanger security in the region."  In the course of burning bridges, not just in Afghanistan but in Pakistan also, that will not be easy and with Teheran's offensive foreign policy it is completely impossible to withdraw peacefully.  The main mistake has been for the West to believe Iran's military preparations and war making schemes would never threaten any country outside of West Asia (Middle East). 

Therefore Iran was not attacked after 9/11 as Washington convinced itself Bin Laden can arrange flight school training.  NATO is more concerned about Iran now since they finally realized last year Teheran has missile warheads that can reach Europe and the U.S. East Coast.  The Brussels based alliance will attempt to use its bases in Afghanistan for attacks on Iran but that can only happen if most of the missiles Iran fires miss.  Some of them will since nothing works as well as advertised and missile guidance systems can be extremely fragile even if fired under ideal weather conditions.

rfn=Teyit -  Hurriyet/AP report ousted Kyrgyzstan President Kurmanbek Bakiyev has left the country and is now in Kazakhstan to conduct negotiations with the Interim government now ruling Bishkek.  Most likely the negotiations will center on the vast sums of money Bakiyev's administration, and his close family members, looted from the country.

night watch:  rfn=JALAL'ABAD -  "According to the provisional government, the treasury is empty.  The previous leadership has embezzled, pilfered and ruined everything...we've always had special relations with the Kyrgyz people and we certainly must support our friends in a difficult moment."  Xinhua/Itar-Tass report that was the announcement by Russia Prime Minister Vladimir Putin during an emergency meeting in Moscow with government officials on the situation in the Central Asia state of Kyrgyzstan which may still be in a state of flux as the new interim government attempts to establish control over the entire country.  That has not proven to be easy since ousted President Kurmanbek Bakiyev is now at his home village of Teyit in the Jalal-Abad region in the south of the country on the border with Uzbekistan.  Al Jazeera/AP reports Bakiyev warned, "I am not clutching at my armchair and I have not said that I am not going to step down under any circustances.  What I said is that if the issues of my personal safety and the safety of my family members will be resolved...and if there is stability in Kyrgyzstan then I am willing to consider this question."

He is obviously in no hurry to negotiate and I suspect Bakiyev is attempting to arrange a heavily armed power base in the south.  Aware of this Russia President Dmitry Medvedev warned in Washington, speaking at the Brookings Institution, stated the situation could develop into civil war, "The risk of Kyrgyzstan breaking apart - into the south and the north - really exists."  This is confirmed by Natalia Leshchenko a Russian analyst at the economic research group Global Insight in London, "Kyrgyzstan is a country which has an important strategic position in Central Asia.  There are very deep divisions between the more industrialized north and the more rural south...The interim government unfortunately does not represent the whole population of Kyrgyzstan.  Neither did President Bakiyev.  What the country now needs is a leader who would be able to unite the whole society...Otherwise the country will fall prey to radical Islamism and will become a very serious security hotspot."

And standing in the way of national unity are divisive religious/political elements in the south which do indeed include Islamic radical leanings connected to the Fergana valley which reaches into Tajikistan-Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan and has long been a center of extremist beliefs.  Usually they head to Afghanistan but an ousted head of state, Bakiyev, may express an interest in using them to find some regional-international support in his "corner" of Kyrgyzstan, especially if the south contains any of the country's gold mining operations.  Non-ferrous metals are the country's main export, especially the gold to: Switzerland-Germany-Russia the top three importers then to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.  However those exports could be redirected east to China and south to Iran if Beijing-Teheran find enough support for Bakiyev to defeat any attempt by the interim government to carry out their arrest warrant for him.

The Interim President is Roza Otunbayeva, the former Foreign Minister, who stated from the capital Bishkek, "Bakiyev has exceeded the limits of his immunity by spilling blood and now he must be brought to trial and answer before the law."  More than eighty demonstrators were killed last week and her statement was made after a meeting with U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia Affairs Robert Blake who said afterward, "I feel optimistic about the steps (interim government) is already taking...the United States is prepared to help."  This means Washington is ready to assist Bishkek in enforcing its control over the nation's resources and its entire territory and this implies military assistance.  Russia Prime Minister Putin has also announced Moscow is sending a financial aid package of 50 milliion dollars to the relevant finanical institutions which will enable the government to pay employees.

But much more at stake are the security of Russia's two airbases here and the Manas air base leased by Washington, bases which the Kissinger-Primakov Strategic Working Group (SWG) intend to use against Iran.  And that is why Teheran may see the potential of supporting any opposition, with or without Bakiyev, to the interim government.  Beijing has already expressed public support for the interim administration but China's Central Government prides itself on saying one thing publicly while doing the exact opposite behind the scenes.

night watch:  rfn=RAMAT DAVID -  Israel Defense Minister Ehud Barak has warned the planned shipment of Scud missiles by Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon "undermines the balance of power and threatens regional stability and calm."  Ynet News reports Defense Minister Barak made these comments after reports circulated Syria was intending to ship Hezbollah in Lebanon medium range Scud ballistic missiles which can reach all of Israel.  Barak, while visiting the Israel Air Force (IAF) base at Ramat David stated, "The Air Force is our pillar of strength in the face of threats near and far.  The IDF (Israel Defense Force) is training, prepared, and has both eyes open in every direction."  Pre-emptive attack is a major part of the IDF defense doctrine and a small example was displayed in September 2007 when the IAF destroyed the Syrian plutonium weapons facility which was being built by North Korean technicians financed by Iran.  The threat from Scud missiles is more immediate even though the missiles do not have an accurate guidance system. 

Israel was hit by 40 Scuds fired from Iraq during the 1990-91 Gulf War, including some hitting Tel Aviv and INN reports it was called a Divine Miracle there was no loss of life.  Some of the missiles landed in the Mediterranean and oth