night watch:  rfn=RIYADH -  Sources have informed Asharq al-Awsat that the head of the Iraq coalition Iraqiya List, former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi has been conducting a regional tour of Arab capitals on the eve of the March 7 national elections.  The former Prime Minister is already on record as saying the elections have no chance of being truly representative  as many Sunni politicians, including ones from his secular coalition, have been banned from running by an electoral commission in Baghdad controlled by Teheran.  Hassan al-Alawi, a senior member of the coalition and with the former Prime Minister on the tour, rejected suggestions they were seeking financing during the visit to Saudi Arabia befor the elections.  But al-Alawi stated, "If the intention was to obtain financing it would have taken place six months ago.  It is not in the logic of the elections or the logic of accounting for a movement to be financed two weeks prior to the elections, there are regional countries that have financed their movements for two years, and built financing and assistance institutions and you will find they have more adverts and more election propaganda."

The main regioinal power which has done so is of course Teheran as it uses the Shia majority to control most of the military in Iraq and Parliament.  I do not believe it is that which disturbs regional governments since they have always been fully aware of the Shia majority.  The problem is the ongoing violence and the continued foreign troop presence which I suspect regional governments know Iran will have those troops and their bases attacked in order to prevent any combined operation between Israel-U.S.  Thay may be why al-Alawi stated the real reason for the tour was equivalent to "a message to the Arabs world with regards to the near future, and there are things that need months to prepare."  It is a "near future" of increased violence as Xinhua reports attacks across Iraq, on Monday alone, killed another 22 people.  And by all accounts, even the Pentagon, no one is expecting a peaceful Iraq after March 7.  Teheran may actually have planned for current Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to declare a state of emergency and police state methods under the guise of maintaining stability after elections.  That would provide Sunni militia groups to increase attacks.

Saudi Arabia is the last stop of the tour which began in Syria and from there to Egypt-Lebanon-Kuwait-Qatar-United Arab Emirates with the purpose "to consult on the turning points that are about to take place in the near future which concerns the Arab region in particular."  This could easily mean not only the post-election Iraq but the Iraq after the smoke clears after Iran unleashes militia groups and supports their operations more directly with the purpose of destroying the West's military presence in the region, including the 12,000 European troops in south Lebanon.  Significantly, strategically, Alawi stated there was complete agreement between the former Prime Minister and King Abdullah Bin Abdulaziz that, "The Iraqi people are tired and exhausted and Iraq must return to its Arab role..."  None of which is possible as long as the occupation remains.  A few years ago the Los Angeles Times reported most of the foreign fighters from Muslim countries attacking the occupation were from Saudi Arabia.

rfn=Bandar Abbas -  "It is such a scandal for Dubai in this incident which shows that the Zionist regime, using U.S. and Europe is seeking to turn the region into a haven for terrorists.  This scandal cannot be covered up."  Hurriyet reports that was the announcement by a triumphant Heydar Moslehi, Iran Minister of Intellgence at a media conference after the arrest of Abdulmalik Rigi who was apparently taken off a flight after the plane was forced to land at an Iranian airfield near Bandar Abbas on the Persian Gulf.  Last year Teheran accused Rigi of being the head of Jundallah a group which is accused of the bomb attack in southeastern Iran last year which killed some Iran Revolutionary Guards.  Iran's Intelligence Ministry accuses the U.S. of supporting Jundallah's attacks in Iran's Sistan-Baluchistan Province and in Pakistan's border Baluchistan Province.  Alireza Ronaghi, Al Jazeera correspondent in Teheran stated, "He has never denied that his group has some drug trafficking as his main economic backbone...Iran's Interior Minister (Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar) says it has been very important for Iran intelligence agents to arrest him alive."

rfn=Gibraltar -  PressTV reports Mohammad-Najjar said Rigi was arrested as he was preparing new attacks and what is even more astounding is that Iranian intelligence claims since January 2008 Rigi was transferred from Gibraltar to Europe by the UK/US and given training for terrorist operations.  He was provided with an Afghan passport and controlled by Israel's Mossad and the CIA and even met NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer in Afghanistan in April 2008.  During the media conference Moslehi held up pictures of Rigi supposedly taken less than 24 hours ago at a U.S. base in Afghanistan.  Bandar Abbas is the base of the Revolutionary Guards and they arranged his live capture in order to stage a highly publicized confession from him of being controlled provocative agent by Israel-US-UK for staging operations in southeast Iran.  Teheran is using its decades old problem of drug trafficking in that area in order to use it to establish reasons for attacking NATO bases in Afghanistan.

rfn=Naples -  Tensions continue to increase in the former Yugoslavia, northern Kosovo which is mainly Serbian, as B92 reports the commander of NATO Joint Force Command in Naples, U.S. Admiral Mark Fitzgerald, is accusing the "parallel structures" Belgrade has established in the northern part of the province are a "threat to stability and peaceful enviroment."  Admiral Fitzgerald warned KFOR is ready to react if the parallel structures use violence in order to prevent the ethnic Albanian government in Pristina from attempting to enforce its authority in the north, the "Northern Strategy" which is the brainchild of an EU official.  Belgrade has already warned it is not possible to enforce the northern strategy peacefully and Serbia has been re-armed by Russia since 1999 and in 2006 Belgrade signed security agreements with Athens-Teheran.

KFOR (NATO Kosovo Force) has 10,000 troops stationed at Camp Bondsteel in Gnjilane.  And in a parallel development during the next two days two U.S. companies of troops will participate an exercise with Multinational Brigade North.  NATO has said they are monitoring the situation.

night watch:  rfn=TEHERAN -  "We will likely start to build two new enrichment facilities in accordance with the President's orders.  From now on our enrichment facilities will not be open and will be built on the side of the mountains so that they will be protected from all manner of attacks.  We plan on using new centrifuges in the two new sites."  Ynet/ISNA report that was the announcement by Ali Akbar Salehi the Director of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI).  Construction is to begin after the Iranian New Year March 21.  Swissinfo/Reuters reports Salehi added, "We have earmarked close to 20 sites and have passed the report on those to the President however, these sites are only potential."  Production is to be similar to the Natanz site and with the new centrifuges the enrichment process to weapons grade uranium should be faster.  None of this would be possible without support from Beijing-Islamabad.  And I would not be surprised if construction on the two sites has already been going on for quite some time but is just now being announced.

rfn=Tokyo -  In an attempt to reassure Japan on access to oil in the Persian Gulf Iran Majlis (Parliament) Speaker Ali Larijani is to begin a five day visit to Tokyo.  IRNA reports Larijani will discuss the latest regional-international developments and I suspect Tokyo's chief concern is the military nature of Iran's nuclear facilities.  Tokyo leads Allied governments on concerns revolving around the Persian Gulf, a major part of Japan's economic lifeline, since Japan's industry is so dependent on oil from there.  Those concerns were heightened in late 2004 when Iran's Oil Minister announced publicly that Iran wanted China to become the main importer of Iranian oil and gas instead of Japan.  Before the year had ended Tokyo changed its foreign policy from defensive too offensive which prompted a five day visit by Iran Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi in Feb. 2005.  Every February since then has seen an annual visit to Tokyo by a senior Iranian foreign policy official.  Last year it was nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili.

Teheran has often threatened to attack international shipping in the Persian Gulf and any such action would result in Japan declaring war.  I assume Tokyo would begin with an ultimatum.

night watch:  rfn=DAMASCUS -  A delegation from Paris, led by Prime Minister Francois Fillon, held a late night meeting Friday in Damascus with Syria President Bashar al-Assad and Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem.  Haaretz/SANA report the latest developments in the region were discussed and Syria Premier Naji al-Otari told reporters afterward the French delegation was warned war in the region would spread internationally.  Everyone at the meeting is probably aware the extent of the war will be determined by the range of Iran's longest range ballistic missiles.  That is why Paris has led the West in concern of Iran's ballistic missile/satellite tests for more than a year and last summer Israel Deputy Foreign Minister Daniel Ayalon warned, over Fox News, that Iran now had missiles which can reach the U.S. East Coast.

rfn=Kissufim -  Palestinian militants seem to be doing their best to start the expanded regional war right now as Haaretz and the Palestinian news agency Ma'an report Palestinian gunmen were wounded in an exchange of fire with Israel Defense Force (IDF) ground troops and helicopters.  The action was on the border of south/central Gaza near the Kissufim crossing.  Spokesmen for the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP) and the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, the military wing of Fatah, announced the gunmen were members of their organizations.  The heavy fighting around Israel began in 2006 in Gaza, as ordered by Teheran.  Iran then had Hezbollah launch an attack from Lebanon two weeks later.  The difference this year is that both Damascus-Teheran are prepared to enter in the name of their regional security axis designed to prevent any combined Allied operation against them.  France is one of the leaders of the 12,000 European troops in south Lebanon.

rfn=Baghdad -  "After the press release by Ray Odierno (top commander of U.S. troops in Iraq) and U.S. Ambassador Christopher Hill that the Accountability and Justice Commission is influenced by the Iran Quds Corps (Revolutionary Guards), we can't continue in a political process running a foreign agenda."  Xinhua reports that was the statement released by the secular party Iraqi Front of National Dialogue which contains both Sunni and Shi'ite members.  But the vetting committee which screened candidates to determine their eligibility was headed by two Shia leaders officials Ali al-Lami and Ahmed Chalabi.  Asharq al-Awsat/AP report recently U.S. Army General Ray Odierno spoke in Washington of having "direct intelligence" both officials "are clearly influence by Iran" and that al-Lami has been "involved in various nefarious activities for quite some time."

U.S. Ambassador to Baghdad, Christopher Hill then stated he agreed with General Odierno "100 percent."  The Shia branch of the party is led by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi who has already expressed his disbelief that the March 7 election will be a true reflection of the population.  And right after Haidar al-Mullah made the announcement Saturday morning another secular party, National Council for Tribes of Iraq, announced they too are dropping out of the election.  This of course is being choreographed by Teheran which had the Accountability and Justice Commission ban 440 candidates, most of them Sunnis and then informed current Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki that the election disputes would set the stage for a new wave of fighting along sectarian lines and trap U.S. forces in a crossfire.

night watch:  rfn=MOSCOW -  "Teheran must cooperate more broadly and actively with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the six countries, which should have access to information on the Iranian nuclear program.  The international community needs to know for certain that it is peaceful."  Xinhua/Interfax report that was the policy statement from Russia Foreign Ministry spokesman Andrei Nesterenko as Moscow expressed its strongest statement to date over Iran's continued uranium enrichment to weapons grade level.  Nesterenko concluded, "The UN Security Council is not working on a resolution on possible sanctions at the moment, but in the wake of recent developments, we cannot full exclude the possibility of starting this work."  And Ynet/Reuters report Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was quoted by Inter-Tass during a radio interview, "We are very alarmed and we cannot accept this, that Iran is refusing to cooperate with the IAEA."

This is near ultimatum language and may have caught Teheran by surprise coming from Moscow which for years has deliberately misled Iran into thinking Russia would never seriously cooperate with the West against Iran.  But Iran's religious-military leadership may be unaware of the strategic economic relations between Russia and industrial concerns in the West, led by Berlin, that has historically used Russia as their primary source of raw materials, including from the Caucasus, and the supplying of such remains the foundation of Russia's economy.  It is these industrial concerns which established the Allied Strategic Working Group (ASWG) by dispatching former U.S. Secretary of State Dr. Henry Kissinger to Moscow in April 2007 to work with former Russia Premier Yevgeny Primakov.  Russia is therefore the only Allied power in a position to sustain any offensive against Iran and Moscow has been warning the international community, for more than a year, that Iran was using its satellite tests to produce very long range ballistic missiles.

The five permanent members of the Security Council are: Russia-France-Britain-US-China with Germany making the sixth government leading the concern over Iran as the IAEA admitted Thursday that Iran may have begun working on an actual warhead.  The Vienna based IAEA is noted for its snail pace decision making as news reported this all of last year which is why Teheran has run nuclear rings around them.  But Teheran cannot dismiss Russia's serious support for sanctions which leaves only China as supporting Iran.  The significance of Russia statement means when Teheran had President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad threaten a serious response to any country that supports sanctions Iran's military may have assumed it only meant targeting the West but this call from Moscow alerts Teheran it has a very real threat to its north.

rfn=Washington -  Adding to the sense of immediacy is the West-Russia realize there are unknown facilities never inspected by the IAEA yet they are aware of Beijing's massive and continued support for Iran's nuclear/ballistic missile programs.  China's Central Government has long realized Iran has the potential to weaken three of China's rival's the West-India-Russia.  In a parallel development, to the announcement by Russia's Foreign Ministry, Ynet News is reporting Israel Defense Minister Ehud Barak is now scheduled to visit Washington next week.  Meetings will be conducted with Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, National Security Council Advisor General James Jones and Chairman of the Pentagon Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael Mullen.  Look for Teheran to increase the fighting in Iraq-Afghanistan and for attacks against Israel to resume as Iran attempts to disrupt any Allied plans for combined operations.

rfn=Marjah -  "In Marjah itself there remains stiff resistance from the insurgents.  It will be some days before we can be completely confident that Marjah is secure."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the admission by Major-General Nick Carter the British commander of the NATO/Afghan Army operation which has still yet to secure Marjah afer a week of heavy ground and air attacks.  General Carter was speaking to reporters at the Pentagon through a video link and said the overall strategy was to create "a sense of momentum that will sweep eastward toward Kandahar in the course of the next six months."  This is the classic example of a grand military strategy which looks great during planning and on paper until the reality on the ground unfolds during the actual campaign.  Kandahar is more than a hundred miles east of the center of Helmand province the area where the Taliban and drug dealers have their strongest presence.

General Carter explained it could "take us 25 or 30 days" to secure Marjah and we "probably won't know for about 120 days whether or not the population is entirely convinced by the degree of commitment that their government is showing to them."  This is exactly what Teheran wants to hear becasue they realize long before the next six months these same NATO units and their bases could be under direct missile attack from Iran as relations worsen and deteriorate into full scale warfare.

night watch:  rfn=AL-MAGHAZI -  Four Israeli tanks and a bulldozer came under heavy fire as they penetrated 900 meters into Central Gaza east of the refugee camp al-Maghazi.  Xinhua/Israel Radio report one of the Israeli army vehicles was damaged by an explosive as two houses were bulldozed.  One Israel Defense Force (IDF) soldier was injured as this comes right after Hamas conducted a conference call from Damascus with its leadership in northern Gaza.  Abu Ubaida, spokesman for Hamas military wing Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, announced after the conference call, "The decision to seek revenge has already been made, and all that is left for Zionist criminals is to wait."  But based on this IDF preventive action Israel is not waiting.  The heavy fighting in 2006 began in Gaza with a Hamas action then spread to Israel's north when Teheran ordered Hezbollah to attack.  Israel was not as prepared then but its highly successful Operation Cast Lead in Gaza last year proved it is ready now and offensive.

rfn=Damascus -  Warning from Damascus, Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal stated, "The talks about revenge are over and execution time is here.  Today is the day of action and we believe in the abililty of the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades."  Ynet News report that was part of a televised speech from Damascus and the pretext Mashaal is using is the assassination of Hamas weapons merchant Mahmoud al-Mabhouh which is of course being blamed on Israel's espionage agency Mossad.  This is almost two years to the day when a similar assassination was blamed on Israel by Teheran and its regional axis partners-Damascus-Hamas-Hezbollah, the assassination of Hezbollah official Imad Mughniyeh.  These killings fit Teheran's purposes and timetable so well it is obvious that Iran is reponsible for the murders.

rfn=Teheran -  "The preparations should be of the kind that, if they (Israel) want to repeat the mistakes of the past, then their case should be closed once and for all and the region delivered from their evil ways forever.  The people of Iran will stand by the peoples of Lebanon and the regime in this."  Haaretz/AP/IRNA report that was Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's encouragement to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah the day after Nasrallah's speech to thousands of his supporters in Beirut's southern suburbs.  I suspect this call indicates Teheran-Damascus are informing Nasrallah preparations are complete.

Regular readers of this site know I have often written about Hezbollah's long range rockets which can reach every major city in Israel.  Significantly a fomer Lebanon Army General Wehbe Katisha informed the Saudi Arabia paper Okaz that Hezbollah's longest range rocket, the Iranian supplied Zilzal, will not be able to inflict serious damage due to its small warhead of only 65 kilograms (130 lbs).  The Zilzal has a range of 250 miles (400 kilometers) and a questionable guidance system.  There is also the very real possibility of a dud warhead.  General Katisha said the Zilzal can barely damage a small apartment.

rfn=Ramadi -  At the same time Teheran is continuing the bomb offensive it began last August against Iraq government buildings.  Swissinfo/Reuters report another suicide car bomb took place in Ramadi, 60 miles west of Baghdad, at a police checkpoint near a complex of government buildings.  Thirteen people have been reported killed so far and 26 injured.  The last major attack in Ramadi was Dec. 30 and these attacks are designed to destroy confidence in the government's ability to function and set off another wave of sectarian violence.  Ramadi is the capital of the desert Anbar province which stretches to the Syrian border and was one of the centers of attacks against the occupation.

rfn=Northern Iraq -  On the eve of the March 7 elections RFI/AFP report there was new political violence in northern Iraq as security forces loyal to Iraq President Jalal Talabani's Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) injured three people from the rival Goran (Change) party.

rfn=Vienna -  "I think that we have to be ready for a decision within the next few weeks.  If we want to have real effectiveness on the regime in Iran we have to talk about sanctions and create sanctions that really have such an effect.  If you look at the announcements of Iran's President Ahmadinejad there is no alternative-with sanctions, and with discussions about that."  Jerusalem Post reports that was the policy statement by Austria Foreign Minister Michael Spindelegger as he met Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem.  This is the best indication so far as to when relations between Teheran and the West will take another turn for the worse.  Already this week President Ahmadinejad already warned a new round of sanctions will cause Iran to respond more seriously than ever before making its enemies regret their action.

rfn=Zagreb -  In a parallel development IRNA reports Iran Deputy Foreign Minister for European Affairs, Ali Ahani, is in the Croatia capital Zagreb to attend the inauguration of new President Ivo Josipovic.  Ahani met outgoing President Stipe Mesic in a meeting to increase bilateral relations.  Teheran established full diplomatic relations with Zagreb in 1992 and announced "Croatia is our entry into Central Europe".  Since then Berlin sent to Poland Leopard tanks, Washington sent Poland F-16s and Russia has helped Poland upgrade its Soviet era military aircraft.  Iran wants war to resume in the former Yugoslavia as use it as another regional theatre to keep the West busy militarily and as an avenue of invasion into Europe.  In 2006 Teheran signed a security agreement with Belgrade as did Athens.

night watch:  rfn=BEIRUT -  "Israel needs no excuse to attack this country and it can make one up at any time.  I say to the Israelis, if you attack Beirut's Rafiq Hariri Airport we will attack Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv.  I declare to you today that I accept the challenge.  If you destroy one building in the southern suburbs we will destroy several of yours."  Asharq al-Awsat/AFP report those were some of the declarations made by Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in a large screen video address to thousands of members in Beirut's southern suburbs.  Teheran, which wrote the speech, timed it for the second anniversary of the assassination of Hezbollah military official Imad Mughniyeh who was killed by Syrian intelligence officers when he revealed their plot to overthrow Syria President Bashar al-Assad.  As usual Hezbollah and governments in the region, Damascus-Teheran, accuse Jerusalem.

Nasrallah's address was also used to commemorate the killing of his predecessor Abbas Moussawi in an Israel Air Force (IAF) raid in 1992 and Israel's assassination of Hezbollah official Ragheb Harb in 1984 just two years after Iran established the group as an extension of Iran's army.  That is why whenever Nasrallah appears in public he is constantly looking over his shoulder.  It is believed he is in an underground bunker in northern Lebanon near the Syria border.  He continued, "The only language Israel understands is threats.  Israel today is caught in a double bind.  It cannot impose peace and it is unable to wage war.  The Israeli army and Israeli people cannot afford a new defeat.  The beginning of the end for them started in 2006 and continued with the war on Gaza."  Hezbollah and the governments which support them have a strange sense of victory.  In 2006, within the first hour of fighting, all of Hezbollah's longest range rockets, which could have hit Tel Aviv were destroyed.  It was Mughniyeh that was responsible for their security which is why I first suspected Teheran of assassinating him for his failure. 

And in the Gaza war last year almost all of Hamas' leadership in Gaza was in hiding as the Israel Defense Forces encountered no serious obstacle and only suffered five losses.  Hezbollah is, however, more prepared than in 2006.  It now has 40,000 rockets, anti-aircraft batteries to protect its 40,000 members but Israel has also improved its operational capacity and is ready for heavy fighting both in the north and south.  I will be surprised if Hezbollah, the Lebanon Army, Syria and the brigade size Rapid Deployment Force (RDF) Teheran will commit, will be able to endure more than a month of Israel's offensives.  I actually expect the IDF to advance the entire length of Lebanon's eastern border with Syria and reach beyond Beirut while at the same time penetrate into Syria to the outskirts of Damascus.  As in 2006 intelligence at Israel's disposal will prevent the longer range rockets from Hezbollah-Syria from even being launched.  Iran's longer range ballistic missiles are not meant for Israel, they are targeted at the West while the shorter range rockets are targeted at the Pentagon bases in Iraq and NATO bases in Afghanistan.

rfn=Teheran -  The only question that remains are the details of Iran's timetable for the expanded regional war.  PressTV may have revealed it as they reported Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad accused Israel's leaders of planning a war for "next spring or summer."  He may have unwittingly revealed Teheran's timetable.

rfn=Marja District -  Xinhua reports after five days the NATO/Afghan Army offensive against the Taliban stronghold of Marja in Helmand province sporadic fighting continues.  Local media reports most of the 1,000 Taliban fighters in the village have evacuated into surrounding districts.  Forty people have been killed, 12 civilians and 30 Taliban.  Only three NATO soldiers have been killed since the offensive began but eleven NATO troops have been killed in other fighting around Helmand province.  The Taliban have even invited media outlets to visit Marja.  The Governor of an adjacent district is now expressing concerns that the Taliban fighters who have entered his area could cause instability.

night watch:  rfn=TEHERAN -  "If anybody seeks to create problems for Iran, our response will not be as before.  Something will be done in response that will make them regret their actions.  However, we prefer they steer toward cooperation."  PressTV reports that was the warning from Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad speaking at a press conference in what was the most belligerent response yet to the prospects of more sanctions imposed on Iran's economy by the West-Russia.  The United Nations Security Council has imposed sanctions since 2006 but Teheran was not yet ready to fully respond militarily and could afford to wait to make more preparations since the sanctions had virtually no impact.  Late last year however Iran Defense Minister Brigadier-General Ahmad Vahidi announced Iran's armed forces were ready.  Teheran was aware another round of sanctions were coming, this time including Russia, as U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has been touring the Persian Gulf-Turkey stating the new sanctions will target Iran's Revolutionary Guards in an attempt to weaken their economic influence in the country.

Though the sanctions will be easily circumvented, due to Iran's extensive network of middlemen and continued support from Beijing, sanctions have become the hallmark of the West's foreign policy and will provide Teheran its excuse for increasing the war in Iraq-Afghanistan as a prelude to full scale war with the West.  2010 is shaping up as the year of ultimatums.

rfn=Riyadh -  The Secretary of State, as expected, has received a polite but unresponsive hearing during her tour as she attempted to warn the region of Iran's military threat to them.  But those governments do not see Teheran as the source of instability in Iraq-Afghanistan and no longer feel the West should have military bases in those countries or in the Gulf.  Though they may not say that publicly they have done nothing to show they will assist Washington's military effort when the shooting really gets started.  In Riyadh PressTV reports Saudi Arabia Foreign Minister Prince al-Faisal, in response to Secretary Clinton's call for support from China on economic sanctions, replied that Chinese officials "need no suggestion from Saudi Arabia to do what they ought to do."

rfn=Teheran -  "We regret that Clinton lives in a virtual world trying to conceal facts about Washington's real intentions in order to distract the public opinion through fake words.  They have been captured by their own military doctrine and have actually ignored the real situation in the region.  The U.S. has a wrong approach towards problems in the Middle East."  RIA/Fars news agency report those were some of the remarks by Iran Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki speaking at a joint press conference in Teheran with Turkey Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, after Secretary of State Clinton called Iran a military dictatorship.  Foreign Minister Mottaki went on to say Washington was acting as a "puppeteer" in Lebanon-Iraq-Palestine-Afghanistan and its policies are nothing more than a continuation of earlier wrong policies that have been the real source of instability.

rfn=Ankara -  As Mottaki was accusing Washington of "modern deceit" standing next to him in complete agreement was Professor Ahmet Davutoglu, author of the book Strategic Depth, which advocates Turkey have a lot of influence in every region around Turkey instituting "order" Ankara's rule.  It is a sense of rule that matches Teheran and supports Iran's nuclear programs completely.  Hurriyet/Bloomberg reports Mottaki even went so far as to say Turkey was an "important" consultant with Iran on its nuclear programs and that Ankara can help the West understand Teheran's position.  Davutoglu will meet later with President Ahmadinejad and Iran lead nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili.  Ankara is eager to speak for Teheran.

rfn=Ramadi -  "This has become a phenomenon in Anbar.  It is difficult for criminals to leave Iraq, and because they are rejected by the community and face tribal persecution, they end up joining the insurgent groups and killing again."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the observation by Ali Hammad a prominent Sheikh in Iraq's desert province of Anbar which stretches from Baghdad to the Syria border.  Since 2003 the U.S. military has detained 90,000 Iraqis and admits that since then only 5 percent have been returned to prison.  A spokesman for the U.S. military admitted, "There is pressure in communities to join the insurgents."  Which means they are not really rejected by the communities at all since they want attacks against the occupation to resume and Anbar, including its capital Ramadi was one of the center of those attacks.

The released detainees belong to both Shia militias, like the Mahdi Army and to Sunni units working with Al-Qaeda the two branches of the armed Iraq opposition to foreign troops led by Washington.  The detainees have been released as a result of the security agreement last year between Baghdad/Washington and already the Iraq government has said some of them were involved in the massive suicide attacks against government buildings beginning last August.  Those attacks were against "hard" targets, buildings with a lot of security and could have only taken place due to cooperation from inside Iraq's own security forces.

night watch:  rfn=HASBAYA -  "The army's anti-aircraft guns fired at four Israeli warplanes overflying southern Lebanon, Hasbaya, the Shouf and the Bekaa."  Asharq al-Awsat/AFP report that was the announcement from Lebanon's army after another incident between the Israel Air Force (IAF) and anti-aircraft units in Lebanon.  Most of the area was actually in the southeast with Hasbaya being barely ten miles from Israel's Golan Heights and near the Syrian border.  The Shouf and Bekaa are further north and also near Syria.  IAF surveillance flights are on a near daily basis and intended to monitor the re-arming if Hezbollah after the fighting in 2006.  Earlier this month Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu again accused the Lebanon government in Beirut of "blatant violations" of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which outlaws the resupplying by Iran-Syria.  And last Wednesday, in a BBC interview, Lebanon Prime Minister Saad Hariri said Israel's actions are "escalating" and "really dangerous."

rfn=Beirut -  "Hezbollah considers any attack on any faction of the resistance movement (Palestinian Units), or on two supporting nations of Iran or Syria, as an attack on all of them.  We will respond to any Israeli aggression on Lebanon."  PressTV reports that was the warning and policy statement by Hezbollah Deputy Secretary-General Hassan Khalil speaking to the Kuwait publication Al-Dar.  Hezbollah is an extension of Iran's army and has 40,000 members and was established by Iran in 1982 during the Lebanon civil war.

rfn=Moscow -  "I'm glad to have the chance to meet and discuss bilateral relations with Israel and pressing international issues, primarily the Middle East peace process and to look at what state the world is in today."  Hurriyet reports that was the extremely diplomatic statement by Russia President Dmitry Medvedev, on the eve of heavy fighting in World War III 1994-2011, as he welcomed Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on his first official visit.  Hurriyet admitted relations between Jerusalem-Moscow have been shrouded in secrecy and that is why this is called Prime Minister Netanyahu's first official visit since he made a clandestine 24 hour visit in September.  I wrote at the time it was most likey used to plan joint operations against Iran and I suspect today begins follow up discussions, more detailed planning under the direction of the Kissinger-Primakov Strategic Working Group (SWG).

Netanyahu announced he will discuss a range of issues with the Russian government but "first and foremost Iran."  He will meet Russia Prime Minister Vladimir Putin Tuesday.  Moscow/Teheran have been fighting for control over the resources of the Caucasus since 1994 resources which industrial services in the West, led by Berlin, have long used Russia to export those resources to them.  Moscow's immediate reponse has been to delay the completion of the Bushehr nuclear facility which it was contracted to build in 1995.  The delay is Moscow's version of sanctions and today RIA reports Moscow has found some "technical" problems with the advanced S-300 anti-missile/anti-aircraft system Iran had purchased at least a few years ago, therefore delivery is being withheld.

rfn=Copenhagen -  "Teheran had the same problem once before, in the early 1980s.  The United States had built a research reactor for Teheran, Iran had ordered nuclear fuel and even paid for it, but then came the mullahs revolution, and America refused to deliver the fuel."  That is an excerpt from Speigel International's interview with Hans Blix Sweden's former Foreign Minister and head the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna from 1981-1997.  Blix was responding to the latest mystery surrounding Iran's uranium enrichment and he seems under the illusion Iran was never supplied the fuel for its research reactor.  Blix may not realize it but Allied governments are aware of the massive support Beijing has provided Teheran including the supply of nuclear fuel and probably before the 1980s were half over since Teheran revived its nuclear program in 1984.  Of course this has never been mentioned publicly or Beijing's reason for supporting Iran.  Beijing has always realized if Iran is successful then three of China's rivals become weaker: the West-India-Russia.

rfn=Pune -  Pakistan was also a direct supporter of Iran's nuclear weapons production as was North Korea.  And it was three years ago this month Pakistan President-General Pervez Musharraf presented Iran his Action Plan during his nine nation tour of Islamic unity.  Today WebIndia123 report India Union Home Secretary G. K. Pillai announced the recent attack against Pune, targeting foreign visitors, may be part of Pakistan's "Karachi Project".  Home Secretary Pillai stated the Karachi Project was revealed to them by David Headley the Islamic militant involved in the Mumbai assault November 2008.  "David Headley has told us that the Karachi Project is meant to brainwash Indian groups inside Pakistan so that they come to India and carry out attacks."

rfn=Line of Control -  At the same time Dawn reports Islamabad has issued a "strong protest" claiming Indian troops fired on Pakistani positions.  But India sources have said it was actually Indian troops firing in retaliation.  Since the start of the year Pakistan Rangers have provided cover fire for infiltration teams of Islamic militants going into Kashmir.  This is part of the Action Plan designed to provoke India into using its hot pursuit policy and attack militant bases inside Pakistan which would set off the fourth war between them since 1947.  Delhi also has a "Cold Start" war plan which calls for heavy fighting immediately.

night watch:  rfn=BAGHDAD -  Three weeks before national elections in Iraq, March 7, Teheran has set off a series of bomb attacks against the headquarters of some political parties in Baghdad.  Swissinfo/Reuters report the bomb attacks wounded seven people with the first exploding in front of the headquarters of the political group led by Saleh al-Mutlaq one of the more prominent Sunni leaders and Minister of Parliament, co-founder of the Iraqiya List, who has been banned from running.  The explosion was in north Baghdad.  In Mansour, west Baghdad, a bomb was thrown into a garden of a building used by Sunni scholars and poll candidates.  Two more attacks were in east Baghdad, one damaging the headquarters of United Iraq List and a bomb attack on the Moderate Movement List in Karrada.  The last attack was on a building used by an election list led by Nehru Abdulkarim al-Keznazani.  A few days ago another canidate was assassinated in the flashpoint city of Mosul in northern Iraq.  Despite the elections being billed as a way to unite the country the opposite is taking place, political entrenchment along religious-political-ethnic lines, heavily armed and with the Shias heavily supported by Iran. 

There are Sunni groups Teheran is also continuing to work with including al-Qaeda in Iraq whose leader, Omar al-Baghdadi, has been instructed by Iran to set off the current bomb attacks which are an extension of the wave of explosions since August attacking Iraq government institutions.  As long as there is a major foreign troop presence Teheran will reinforce these divisions using what Baghdadi called "legitimate means including military."  A complete breakdown of what is left of Iraq's government may be the reason Teheran-Damascus will use to unleash the militia groups led by the Madhi Army Promised Day Brigades.  Iran's religious-military leadership want to prevent any combined Allied operation against them and heavy fighting in Iraq will keep Washington on the defensive.

rfn=Pune -  India/Pakistan were scheduled to resume complicated, contentious negotiations on a range of issues February 25, including perhaps the most explosive issue-Kashmir.  Though few placed any real hope on resolving these issues peacefully many looked forward to them especially the West-Russia, which is why Teheran has just used the India Mujahideen to set off a major bomb attack in the city of Pune, not far from Mumbai.  Xinhua reports the explosion killed nine people and wounded more than fifty with four of the dead being foreigners.  The German Bakery restaurant is popular with tourists and the bomb went off at 7:15 pm Saturday when the area is most crowded.  Nearby is a Jewish center and a Hindu mystic site.  The explosion was so powerful the walls of the restaurant caved in.  Sources in India intelligence say the attack bears the "trademark" of the India Mujahideen a network of Islamic militant cells mainly across the important state of Maharashtra where Mumbai-Pune are located. 

The India Mujahideen is a creation of Teheran-Islamabad and were used for serial attacks on Nov. 23, 2007 in the cities of Varanasi, Faizabad and Lucknow.  Then in May 2008 Jaipur was attacked as was Ahmedabad that same year and also Hyderabad.  The capital Delhi has also been attacked by bombs and the government of India has issued a Red Alert for the captial along with Indore and Kanpur.

night watch:  rfn=BAGHDAD -  "I believe that democracy in Iraq is committing suicide."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the grim assessment of the deteriorating situation in Iraq by prominent Sunni lawmaker and Minister of Parliament Saleh al-Mutlaq one of the more important Sunni leaders who have been banned by the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki on orders from Teheran.  Nearly 500 candidates have been banned, the majority of then Sunni, in order to set off the next wave of sectarian warfare which will disrupt Washington's troop withdrawal.  It is an obvious intention of Teheran to prevent any combined Allied operation against them and to keep regional/international enemies on the defensive.  Political violence in Iraq is just another weapon for Iran.  Even the deputy head of Iraq's Independent Election Commission (IHEC), Usama al-Ani, has admitted concerning the ban, "It is not a judicial decree, it's a political one for clear political effect, and it has a clear Iranian flavor."

Al-Mutlaq warned, "This is the coup de grace of the public process...If the current political process continues along this path it will fail and finish soon."  Not only is the ban limiting the role of Sunni leaders in Iraq's future but a candiate in al-Mutlaq's Iraqiya List party was assassinated in Mosul in northern Iraq a few days ago.  The Iraqiya List is headed by former Prime Minister Ilyad Allawi, a secular coalition which contains both Sunnis and Shia's but it has been highly critical of Prime Minister al-Maliki.  Allawi's critical views on this election process, and its unfairness, have already appeared on this site.  He did state, however, that after the election no matter who wins, he will visit Teheran.  Another prominent candidate from his party that was banned was Sunni leader Dhafer al-Ani.  Al-Mutlaq added ominously that although the current government in Baghdad may win the battle against him it will not win the war.

rfn=Baghdad -  At the same time Teheran will use the unit al-Qaeda in Iraq to attack the elections, an extension of their bomb offensive against government institutions which began last August.  Asharq al-Awsat/AFP report the head of the group, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, released an audiotape of which 34 minutes appeared on Jihadist websites.  He announced the election process is a politicial crime plotted by Iraq's Shiite majority.  Therefore he has "decided to prevent the elections by all legitmate means possible, primarily by military means."

rfn=Baghdad -  "The al-Iraqiya List has decided to suspend its election campaign."  Xinhua reports that was the announcement by Mayssoun al-Damaluji, spokeswoman for the political coalition headed by Iyad Allawi.  Damaluji is also a lawmaker and said the secular coaltion demands the Supreme Judicial Council and Parliament convene an emergency session on the election crisis and if not then the coalition "will find itself forced to take difficult decisions" if the other parties do not respond positively.

night watch:  rfn=POINT MUGU -  "The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) demonstrated the potential use of directed energy to defend against ballistic missiles when the Airborne Laser Testbed (ALTB) successfully detected a boosting ballistic missile.  This was the first directed energy lethal intercept demonstrated against a liquid fuel boosting ballistic missile target from an airborne platform."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the announcement from the MDA after the test at the Point Mugu Naval Air Warfare Center Weapons Division Sea Range off Ventura in central California.  The high powered laser system is being developed by Boeing Co. the prime contractor and the U.S. MDA.  The airframe is a modified 747 jumbo jet, Northrop Grumman supplied the high energy laser and Lockheed Martin is developing the beam and fire control system.  The first inflight test was conducted last August as a Boeing 747-400F took off from Edwards Air Force Base in California and used its infrared sensors to find a target a missile launched from San Nicolas Island California. 

The plane's battle management system (BMS) issued engaged and target location instructions to the fire control system (FCS) which tracked the target and fired a test laser at the missile.  Instruments on the missile verified a hit.  Airborne laser weapons are designed to intercept enemy missile attacks and provide the Pentagon with the ability to engage all classes of ballistic missiles at the speed of light while the missile is still in its boost stage shortly after launch, before it begins its downward trajectory, path.  "The revolutionary use of directed energy is very attractive, for missile defence, with the potential to attack multiple targets at the speed of light, at the range of hundreds of miles (kilometers), at a low cost per intercept attempt compared to current technologies."  At this moment every Allied government is being briefed on this.  Ground based lasers may also be employed for interception.

rfn=Qom -  "Within the 150 IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) member states, we are among the top 15.  We are of course not yet at the same level as Japan but within the Islamic world we are the number one.  Even though Pakistan has the atomic bomb that does not mean that also it possesses all nuclear technologies."  Haaretz reports that was the policy statement of Ali-Akbar Salehi Director of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI).  Salehi is not given to hyperbole and melodramatic statements as Iran's head of state.  And another reason why I take Salehi's statement so seriously is because in 1998, the day after Pakistan responded to India's nuclear explosions by setting off several of their own, Islamabad was visited by Iran Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi who publicly praised what he called "the Islamic bomb."  The reason he never called it Pakistan's bomb is probably because Teheran invested heavily in Pakistan's research and development. 

Whatever Pakistan has Iran probably has also the only difference has been Teheran's effort to produce ballistic missiles of very long range to reach Europe and the U.S. East Coast.  That has been the reason for Iran's successful satellite tests for more than a year now.  Pakistan had no need of ballistic missiles of that range.  I suspect Allied governments know this but do not want to say that publicly.

rfn=Tel Aviv -  Jerusalem Post reports the Pentagon Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael Mullen will arrive in Israel Sunday and be received at the Kirya Military Headquarters in Tel Aviv.  Admiral Mullen will then meet with Israel Chief of General Staff Lieutenant-General Gabi Ashkenazi, Deputy Chief of Staff Major-General Benny Gantz, Military Intelligence Chief Major-General Amos Yadlin and Israel's Military Attache in Washington Major-General Gadi Shamni.  Mullen will then meet separately with Israel Defense Minister Ehud Barak.  It is quite possible they will be concentrating on Syria more than Iran in order to weaken Teheran's influence in the region.  Damascus has made no secret of its close, working, strategic relations with Teheran and the West began to target Syria right after Saddam Hussein's removal in 2003.

rfn=Damascus -  "If war breaks out it will not only be dangerous for Gaza, but the entire region.  Therefore it is the responsibility of the entire Arab nation."  Ynet News report that was the warning from Hamas leader Khalad Mashaal in Damascus speaking to the pan-Arab daily Al-Hayat based in London.  Teheran received the Palestinian militant leadership during its ten day Dawn celebrations which have just ended as rocket/mortar fire has resumed again from Gaza.  The fighting in 2006 began with a Hamas action in late June then spread to Lebanon as Teheran ordered Hezbollah to launch an attack across the border.  And for more than a month Damascus-Teheran have increased their high level meetings.

rfn=Missan -  Xinhua reports state owned Iraqiya-TV announced seven people were killed, one wounded during a combined operation by U.S./Iraq Army units in a village in Missan province southeast Iraq, 150 miles north of Basra.  The significance of this operation is because the village is on the Iran-Iran border and could be the center of weapons trafficking from Iran to militia groups in Iraq.  No details were released.  The ongoing violence in Iraq does not receive the coverage it used too.

night watch:  rfn=TEHERAN -  "The case for sanctions as an effective foreign policy tool is strongest when the country in question is brimming with internal political tensions caused by years of stagnation or decline in living standards, which sanctions can intensify to bring about the desired policy shift by the country's rulers.  This is not the situation in Iran."  These are some of the convincing and realistic observations by Djavad Salehi-Isfahani a guest scholar at the Washington based Brookings Institution as he dispels the myth, popular in decision making circles in the West, that a new round of sanctions would have a major impact in Iran.  These excerpts from Salehi-Isfahani are part of his position paper he composed in September and are included in today's edition of Speigel International by Ulrike Rutz in Beirut.  "The sharp economic decline in 2008 no doubt contributed to dissatisfaction.  But for the most part, what was on display in Teheran after the disputed elections was more the fruits of improved living standards than economic decline."

People whose standards of living are rising automatically want to increase their political power and are less supportive of militaristic governments which is why an Iranian exile warned that Iran's religious-military leadership prays for an attack since it would reunite the country.  Salehi-Isfahani wrote that in 2007 Iran's economy increased 7 percent and per capita increases have doubled in the past ten years.  Basic services like water-electricity have been extended to over 95 percent of the population.  Health care-education have improved and the size of the middle class has doubled.  This reality flies in the face of Washington increasing its embargo in 1995, then the United Nations Security Council sanctions first imposed in 2006 against Iran's nuclear production.  Then in 2007-2008 those sanctions were strengthened as trade sanctions were imposed on the state owned bank, Bank Sepah and in 2008 the European Union imposed sanctions on Iran's largest bank Bank Melli.  As this site wrote at the time about all these sanctions have accomplished is publicity and the myth the West is having some impact.

Olivier Jakob, Managing Director of Swiss oil consultant Petromatrix, informed the Bloomberg business news agency that even in the case of a gasoline embargo "there will be enough middlemen for Iran to carry on as normal."  Even the sanctions Washington imposed on Iran's aircraft industry was evaded by Teheran for years using a Dutch and European firm which simply shipped the spare parts Iran needed to Dubai.

rfn=Azadi Square -  "Right now in Natanz (enrichment complex) we have the capability to enrich more than 20 percent and to more than 80 percent, but because we don't need it, we won't do it.  The Iranian nation is brave enough that if one day we wanted to build a nuclear bomb we will announce it publicly without being afraid of you."  Swissinfo/Reuters report those were some of the deliberately conflicting remarks Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made to tens of thousands of people in Teheran's Azadi (Freedom) Square on the last day of the ten day Dawn celebrations.  The 31st anniversary of their Islamic revolution.  Statements such as these are constantly made publicly by Iran's leadership in order to create confusion in the mind of the enemy something Iran's government has a genius for.

However, Al Jazeera has reported Teheran informed nuclear inspectors they will begin higher grade uranium enrichment "within days."  There are subterranean facilities which Teheran has never permitted to be inspected and they have been in operation for more than fifteen years.  Allied governments realize this but do not want to discuss that publicly.

rfn=Damascus -  "We have reliable information...that the Zionist regime is after finding a way to compensate for its ridiculous defeats from the people of Gaza and Lebanon's Hezbollah.  If the Zionist regime should repeat its mistakes and initiate a military operation then it must be resisted with full force to put an end to it once and for all."  Swissinfo/Reuters and Iran state broadcaster IRIB report that was the telephone message to Syria President Bashar al-Assad by Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.  Since the end of the fighting between Israel/Hezbollah in 2006 Teheran has realized it is to its advantage to encourage Syria, especially President Assad, to believe it will be easy for Syria to retake the Golan Heights lost to Israel in just six days in 1967.  After the fighting in 2006 Assad made an impassioned speech in Parliament in which he proclaimed Hezbollah had one a great victory and therefore it will be easy to retake the Golan.

Iran's leadership is not given to such enthusiasm but they realize it is a useful act and to encourage other leaders and people to get carried away since it suits Teheran's regional agenda for a war which Iran will use to inspire more Islamic radicalism which they will direct against the last Muslim head of state with close relations with the West, Egypt President Hosni Mubarak.  And an expanded regional war with also feed the appetite of the spiritual forces which control Iran's government, forces which were shown several years ago on a website of Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, the same forces that controlled Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini who established Iran's current government in 1979.  They were shown in the sky in a picture of a mass gathering in Azadi Square.  One was a blood red bull with a man's face wearing an insatiable expression and above that demonic image was a large black horseman wearing an ancient helmet, another pre-Islamic, Persian occult figure.  His face was not shown and if it were it would not have been human. 

Just before the elections Khamenei spoke of a feast and the feast they have in mind is one of blood, an extension of the self-flagellating Shia rituals, and not just the blood of the enemy, but also of those who are devoted too and led by these deities.  They obviously want to drink a lot of Syrian blood.

rfn=Teheran -  Iran Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki is eagerly playing his part in preparing the region for a larger war as Ynet News reported he stated over Al Jazeera in a Monday interview, "The Zionist regime is in its weakest position in three years.  This is the first time we see this regime facing two different and important defeats in our region, and this is the seventh time that Israeli forces have tried to enter Lebanon and force a war on the country."  It is to Jerusalem's advantage Iran's Foreign Minister is espousing such nonsense over Al Jazeera and I hope he believes it.  Israel's Operation Cast Lead into Gaza a year ago was an enormous success and every officer who was part of Israel's difficult performance in Lebanon in 2006 has been removed.  About the only difference this year from Israel's victory in 1967 is perhaps Syria's military will be able to last sixteen days instead of six.  Iran's brigade size Rapid Deployment Force won't make much of a difference and will be there mainly for appearances sake, smiling for the camera.

The Ayatollah Khomeini, in exile in Najaf, Iraq, believed something similar in 1967 when the war began that June.  He bought a new German Telefunken radio, assuming he would hear wonderful news of an Arab victory, but instead he heard the exact opposite, an Israeli victory in six days.  Now television audiences in the region will watch Israel's successes over Al Jazeera.

rfn=Moscow -  "The situation around the Iranian nuclear program that has evolved after Teheran decided to enrich its stock of low enriched uranium (LOW) to 19.75% purity."  RIA reports that was the annoucement by Russia's Foreign Ministry concerning the meeting between Iran Ambassador to Moscow, Seyyed Mahmoud-Reza Sajjadi and Russia Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov.  I doubt very seriously if the discussion is on uranium enriched to 19.75% but to 80 and more for the purpose of manufacturing nuclear warheads.  Moscow may even be aware Iran has such capability already and has even been in production since Russia was the first government to warn, more than a year ago, the real reason for Iran's satellite tests was to produce very long range ballistic missiles to carry the warheads.

The Russian position is directed by the Kissinger-Primakov Strategic Working Group (SWG) established in 2007 with the arrival of former U.S. Secretary of State Dr. Henry Kissinger to work with former Russia Premier Yevgeny Primakov.  They represent industrial concerns in the West, led by Berlin, to maintain access to raw materials in the Caucasus supplied by Russia to the West.  Teheran has attempted to disrupt the supply by supporting Islamic groups in Chechnya-Daghestan in the northern Caucasus since 1994 and for the past several years has shifted its support to Georgia in the south Caucasus.  The main Allied offensive reponse to Iran is through Russia.

night watch:  rfn=BEIRUT -  "This is something that has been escalating, and this is something that is really dangerous.  We hear a lot of Israeli threats day in and day out, and not only threats.  We see what's happening on the ground and in our air space and what's happening all the time during the past two months--every day we have Israeli war planes entering Lebanon's air space."  Asharq al-Awsat/Reuters report those were excerpts from a BBC interview with Lebanon Prime Minister Saad Hariri on the latest developments between Israel/Lebanon/Hezbollah.  The warning, and Prime Minister Hariri's concern is nothing new, but the situation has become more immediate as Damascus/Teheran have trained Hezbollah in the use of advanced anti-aircraft batteries which threaten the daily surveillance flights of Israel's Air Force (IAF) to monitor the re-supplying of Hezbollah since 2006.  But it is what Hariri said at the conclusion of the interview that will shock Western governments which had taken his support for granted and not only in Lebanon, but the region, "I think they're (Israel-West) betting that there might be some division in Lebanon, if there is a war against us.  Well, there won't be any division in Lebanon.  We will stand against Israel.  We will stand with our people."  He even announced the government will stand by Hezbollah. 

During the month long fighting between Israel/Hezbollah in 2006 Hariri made some statements in complete support of Hezbollah which is in reality an extension of Iran's army.  At the same time France, which has been the main Western influence in the country since the French created Lebanon out of Syria in 1943, have alienated its historical political-military allies in the country by insisting Lebanon owes France an enormous amount of debt due to the fifteen year civil war from 1975-90.  Paris played an enormous role in starting the war through militias they supported like the Maronite Catholics and Christian Nationalist leaders like General Michel Aoun who now openly supports Teheran.  It is quite possible Iran may have informed Lebanon their debt to France will be written off.  And I suspect Hariri is opposed to Europe having 12,000 troops in Lebanon's south that arrived in the fall of 2006 and they have made it a policy to ignore Hezbollah's rearming.

rfn=Jerusalem -  Israel Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman responded to these statements by saying over Army Radio, "We have no interest in heating up the fronts with any of our neighbors."  But the Jersualem Post/AP report Foreign Minister Lieberman warned, "At the same time, we won't be a punching bag.  And we won't shrug off vitriol that's directed at Israel."  As an example of Israel's new responsiveness INN/AFP report the IAF attacked the Gaza Strip after more rocket/mortar fire which landed in Israel's south causing no casualties.  The air strike took place a few minutes before midnight Tuesday and most of the targets in Gaza were near Rafah on the Egyptian border.  Xinhua reports major damage was done when IAF missiles hit the Gaza airport southeast of Rafah.  This week Teheran has received some of the Palestinian militant leaders as Iran called for them to renew their "resistance" to Israel. The fighting in 2006 began in Gaza after Israel responded to the Hamas capture of an Israeli soldier in late June.  Two weeks later Teheran ordered Hezbollah to launch an ambush from across the Lebanese border.

rfn=Berkha Nawa Junction -  An AFP photographer said the U.S. Marines 1st Battalion 3rd Regiment came under fire immediately after it landed from helicopters at their base at Berkha Nawa junction on the northeastern outskirts of Marjah, Afghanistan in Helmand province.  Hurriyet reports Cobra helicopters were called in for support as this is the staging area for a major assault against the Taliban, an assault to be led by the Afghan Army.  All but one family has evacuated Marjah.  The offensive is designed to restore the sovereignty of the Afghanistan government in Kabul over this area which has long been under the control of the Taliban in close association with drug dealers.  As the Marine base came under rocket propelled grenade (RPG) attack the Taliban could be seen planting their new improvised explosive devices (IED) in the area.  The new ones are more difficult to detect.  IED's are responsible for most of the casualties among NATO troops and were first supplied by Teheran for Islamic groups in Iraq. 

Sixty NATO troops have been killed this year after 520 were killed last year in the heaviest fighting since 2001.  For more than a year Teheran has been conducting Tri-Lateral Foreign Ministers meetings with Kabul-Islamabad to increase cooperation against NATO.  Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai no longer supports the NATO operation due to all the civilian deaths.

night watch:  rfn=TEHERAN -  "The Iranian nation, with its unity and the grace of Allah, will punch the arrogance (West) on the 22nd of Bahman (Feb. 11) in a way that will leave them stunned."  INN reports that was the policy statement of Iran Supreme Leader and Commander in Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaking in front of Air Force personnel.  February 11 is the anniversary of Iran's Air Force announcing its support for the government of Ayatollah Khomeini in 1979 ten days after his arrival from Paris which established Iran's current government.  In response to hostility from the West the military-religious government made its conventional military production independent in 1992 which enabled it to produce jet fighters, tanks, artillery and torpedos etc.  But in terms of advanced weaponry like ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons that support came from and remains from Beijing as an extension of China's support for the ballistic missile/nuclear weapons support for Pakistan since Beijing also has territorial disputes with India.

Beijing would also like to see the West-Russia weaker which is why China never hesitated to support Iran and that has always been the main reason sanctions never had any chance of working.  Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton, warned over FoxNews this week, "The question is whether the West will finally realize that Iran has no intention of shipping uranium out, or will it continue to try to negotiate...I think Iran is counting on being able to play the West as it has in the past.  It has no intention of being talked out of its plan, and even very strong sanctions-which do not appear likely-are not likely to work."  Ambassador Bolton continued by observing sanctions "is a great idea that may have worked five years ago.  It's an idea whose time has come and gone.  There are two options: either Iran gets nuclear weapons, or else Israel or someone else uses military force to stop them; that's where we are."

rfn=Natanz -  But the disturbing question remains, what is the stunning blow Ayatollah Khamenei is referring too?  One answer could have come in December as an Iraq Minister of Parliament warned that his contacts in Iran alerted him Teheran will make an announcement, concerning its nuclear industry, in either January or February.  Right after that Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said he would have "good news" during the ten day Dawn celebrations, which will end on the eleventh and I suspect it is more than just announcing 20% uranium enrichment.  That is not especially stunning and France Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner has just distinguished himself by saying he refuses to believe Iran has the capability for enrichment to that level.  Foreign Minister Kouchner's ridiculous statement disqualifies him from his position.  Such insulation, which is not surprising, is one of Teheran's greatest weapons and is one of the main reasons the West will only continue to respond defensively. 

Perhaps Kouchner believes people in Iran and the region are not intelligent enough to enrich uranium to that level.  Xinhua/PressTV reported Ali Akbar Salehi, the Director of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) immediately responded to Kouchner's disbelief by saying Iran is definitely capable.  Al Jazeera even reported an unnamed Iranian official's announcement, "Today we started to make 20 % enriched nuclear fuel...in the presence of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) inspectors at Natanz."  Natanz is the nuclear facility that is the most visible, just 150 miles south of Teheran, surrounded by flags, an invitation to attack, something an Iranian exile said Iran's government prays for since that would reunite the country.  I have long suspected Natanz is not a major facility due to its visibility, but Teheran has deliberately and deceptively directed the world's attention there while the real enrichment process remains concealed in subterranean facilities which have never been inspected.

Natanz is a decoy.  And I suspect the "stunning blow" on February 11 may actually be a demonstration of some kind of Iran possessing nuclear weapons by conducting an explosion in the open atmosphere.  October 2008 this site reported an article by INN/Israel Insider after Teheran announced a 5.5 earthquake near the Persian Gulf.  But according to Arash Irani, an Iranian technician which contacted INN/Israel Insider, it was actually an underground nuclear test, the second one and Iran had done this before, conducted a test but announced it as an earthquake.  There have been similar "earthquake" announcements since then.  Iran re-activated its nuclear program in 1984.  It did not take Pakistan twenty plus years to develop nuclear weapons so why should it take Iran any longer?

rfn=Ankara -  Hurriyet reports Turkey Foreign Minister Professor Ahmet Davutoglu held a phone conversation Tuesday morning with Iran Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki and it was decided Professor Davutoglu will visit Teheran next week in what is officially an attempt to reach a negotiated solution.  But in reality Ankara is in full support of Iran's nuclear weapons production.  Last October Turkey Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, stated in an inteview with the British paper the Guardian, that the position of Western governments is completely unfair since they have nuclear weapons and Iran does not.  Xinhua reports Davutoglu will meet not only Foreign Minister Mottaki but other Iranian officials.  It is quite possible Thursday's event, (Feb. 11) will have a direct impact on the meetings next week.

night watch:  rfn=TEHERAN -  "I am very optimistic about Palestine's future and I believe Israel is moving in a downward spiral.  There is no doubt that at the end of this slope, Palestine will be rescued from the teeth of the Zionists and will return to the Palestinians, and the Zionists regime will collapse.  With God's help Israel's disappearance is certain."  Ynet News reports those were some of the observations made by Iran Supreme Leader Alyatollah Syyed Ali Khamenei during his meeting with the Secretary-General of the Palestinian militant unit Islamic Jihad, Ramadan Salah in Teheran.  IRNA reports Salah also met with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and received these words of encouragement, "I am quite confident that in the near future the compromisers and those who are ready to put on sale the fate of the oppressed nation of Palestine will fade away from the global scene."  President Ahmadinejad also stated Palestinians have formed a "united front" as both he and Khamenei called for "resistance" attacks to resume.  Ahmadinejad is obviously unaware it is Teheran which has purchased the Palestinian resistance and he was really discussing himself.

The best way to gauge the lucidity of governments and heads of states is through their statements about Israel and this is true not only of governments in West Asia (Middle East) but also around the world and frankly the less they say on the subject of Israel the better.  On almost every statement occasion, as soon as they begin the second sentence, or even the second word, they reveal they have subscribed to the most suspicious belief, state of mind, in the history of world affairs, when all else fails blame either Israel or Jewish people.  This accusation is always levied due to the failure of some government or group of nations to manipulate the region or even in the face of social upheavel in their own countries.  Diseased as this kind of reactionary mentality is it is widespread and actually quite prestigious and circulates on society's highest decision making level especially within the European Union (EU).  But for the past several years it has been mainly centered in Teheran.  And even on occasion the late Ayatollah Khomeini, the leader of Iran's 1979 revolution, during some of his trances would, intone Operation Jerusalem then go into a religious recital on the matter.

Teheran initially adopted this popular, obsessed, excuse making tradition as one of the ways to inflame Islamic extremism and put on a show of supporting Palestinian people.  But recently it seems the Iranian leadership has actually fallen for its own propaganda and now really believes when the smoke clears Israel will no longer exist.  Nothing could be further from the truth since Israel is fighting for its very existence and has prepared an effective military response, especially on its Northern Front, confronting Lebanon-Syria.  A small example was displayed a year ago during Israel's highly successful Operation Cast Lead into Gaza to end the rocket fire from groups like Islamic Jihad.  And that is why Teheran will have Palestinian groups again attack Egypt's control over the Rafah Terminal on the Gaza/Egypt border as in January 2008.  It is safer and the political rewards are much greater for Teheran and even for the Palestinians if there is a government in Cairo working in conjuction with Teheran and Palestinian people than in trying to conquer the salt in the Dead Sea. 

But Teheran-Damascus-Hezbollah and Palestinian militants have embraced this mirage vision, which is what happens when one looks at the Dead Sea too long, and are obliged to attack Israel to some extent at least to disrupt any combined operation between Israel, the U.S. and the 12,000 European troops in south Lebanon.  And that is why the question for Teheran and Palestinians should be how many Palestinians in Gaza will survive Iran's support?  Ramadan Salah was meeting in Teheran with those who are waiting to celebrate his and the Palestinians martyrdom.  The Teheran meeting, and with a group, Islamic Jihad, that is more eager to launch missiles than even Hamas, indicates rocket fire from Gaza is about to resume and Teheran is aware Israel is prepared for major fighting on every front.  Ahmadinejad therefore, after saying a new united Palestinian front had been achieved, called for every government/political group in the region to remain vigilant.

They are all understandably haunted, not only by the effectiveness of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), but also with pre-emptive attack being a major part of Israel's defense doctrine.

rfn=Teheran -  However, Ayatollah Khamenei did speak more clearly when he condemned outside governments calling for more democracy in Iran as the West celebrated the mass demonstrations after the June elections and in December.  PressTV reported Khamenei observed, "Those democracy contenders are those who befriend and ally with the worst tyrannical and reactionary governments in the world, including in the Middle East and North Africa."  The latter is an obvious reference to President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt which is threatened by a large opposition both religious and secular.  Only days before Israel's Operation Cast Lead both Damascus-Teheran openly sponsored anti-Egypt/anti-Mubarak demonstrations and the Egyptian government immediately responded by closing down Iran's diplomatic mission in Cairo.  Then a year ago, as Egypt arrested Hezbollah members in Egypt planning attacks along the Suez Canal, Mubarak warned both Hezbollah-Iran to "beware the wrath of Egypt."

rfn=Marjah -  "We are preparing to fight until the end.  We don't have sophisticated weapons like the Americans with tanks and airplanes, but we have Islamic zeal.  That is the power we have to fight against the infidels."  France24/Reuters report that was the announcement by Taliban commander Abdul Khaleq speaking from Nad Ali district in Helmand province as 2,000 Taliban fighters prepare for one of the largest NATO attacks since 2001 an attack reportedly to be led by the Afghan Army.  At least 100 families have fled the village of Marjah, located in the district, and are now living in tents in provincial capital Lashkar Gah.  Villagers have seen Taliban fighters planting mines in the district and surrounding areas.

At the same time, in Munich, Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai called for an end to civilian casualties which has been the main reason for the increase in support for the Taliban, "We believe that the war on terror is not in the Afghan villages and homes.  We believe the war on terror is in the sanctuaries, training grounds and the motivational factors and financial resources beyond the Afghan borders."

night watch:  rfn=TEHERAN -  In a bit of theatre Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, during a nationwide televised address at a Laser Technology and Science Exhibition in Teheran, turned to Dr. Ali Akbar Salehi, Director of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) and said, "I order Dr. Salehi to start work on the production of 20 % fuel using centrifuges.  We are interested in cooperation with the West, but if they want to keep playing games with the Islamic nation, then we must be prepared and enrich uranium 20 % ourselves."  This bit of theatre was not the only part of President Ahmadinejad's performance because he then announced Iran now possesses laser uranium enrichment technology.  Xinhua/IRNA reports this was the "Good News" President Ahmadinejad announced he would mention to the Iranian people during the ten day Dawn celebrations that began February 1.  A laser enrichment procedure would prepare weapons grade uranium of much higher quality, purity, for nuclear warheads at a much faster rate of production. 

My only question of course is how long has Iran been doing this?  I have never believed Iran's religious-military government issued geniune, true, statements on the real rate of its nuclear production through the President.  But that they used Ahmadinejad's pronouncements for the sake of discussion, negotiations, deceptive and conflicting statements for the consumption of Western governments that hang on every word from Teheran.  In the meantime Reuters announced, back in 1996, that Iran was engaged in laser research connected with uranium so I believe Iran has been doing so ever since and  mainly concentrating on producing ballistic missiles that can reach Europe and the U.S. East Coast.  Iran has been conducting satellite launches for just such a purpose and last summer Israel Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon warned, over Fox News, that Iran had missiles that can reach the East Coast.

Teheran has been able to do so with the complete strategic cooperation of Beijing which wants to see Iran weaken three of China's rivals, the West-India-Russia.

rfn=Sarajevo -  "Your sincere support for Bosnia-Hezegovina in the past will never be forgotten by Bosnians.  The support was when the Bosnians were in dire need of it."  IRNA reports that was the genuinely grateful statement by Bosnia's new Ambassador to Iran, Amir Hadzic Kadovic during his meeting in Teheran with Iran Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki.  The "dire need" His Excellency referred to was in 1992 during the arms embargo against his people imposed by NATO in order to increase the war in the former Yugoslavia, which had begun to break apart in 1991.  The embargo was imposed in order to create an excuse for NATO to intervene militarily.  Bosnia had no chance to defend itself against Serbian attacks until Iran and other Islamic countries, Turkey-Pakistan-Malaysia sent assistance in the form of Islamic mujahideen fighters which are still in Bosnia.

But Teheran did not stop by limiting its influence in Southeast Europe with Bosnia.  During all of 1992 Teheran established full diplomatic relations with every government that came out of Yugoslavia including Croatia.  Teheran than announced Croatia was their entry into Central Europe.  Iran realized excactly what NATO had done by committing forces to this region.  The Brussels based alliance had put itself completely out of position because Teheran knew there would be other wars in other regions, West Asia (Middle East) and the Caucasus, regions the West needs to have access too because of those regions resources but NATO would be unable to play any prominent role in guaranteeing their security or in confronting Iran directly.  And the division of Yugoslavia has also divided the NATO alliance since Greece, along with Iran, signed security agreements with Serbia in 2006.

Kadovic-Mottaki are aware fighting will resume in the former Yugoslavia this year at least around Kosovo but quite possibly also in and around Bosnia.  And when that happens they will restore their military cooperation against their hated mutual enemy a hatred which is not limited to the Muslim population of Yugoslavia.

night watch:  rfn=TEHERAN -  "The laser guided Qaem missiles are resistant to the enemy's electronic warfare."  Swisinfo/Reuters/Fars news agency report that was the announcement by Iran Defense Minister Brigadier-General Ahmad Vahidi as he spoke during the inauguration ceremony of two lines of production for new missiles to counter any Allied offensive.  General Vahidi was speaking at an undisclosed location and I would not be surprised if the new production lines are subterranean and may in fact have been in operation for quite some time.  But Teheran has just decided to announce it during their ten day Dawn celebrations.  Vahidi continued by describing the Qaem as a light weight guided missile "that is able to destroy low altitude air targets, particularly armored helicopters.  Upon the mass production and delivery of these modern weapons to the armed forces, the country's defense capabilities would inprove land and air warfare."  Vahidi had warned Iran would be unveiling new missiles during the celebrations and I assumed they may perhaps be new ballistic missiles but instead these are designed for any attack on Iran. 

The other missile being produced is the anti-armor Toufan 5 for use against armored personnel carriers (APC) and against tanks.  Xinhua/Fars news agency report General Vahidi stated, "The Toufan 5 missile is one of the most advanced anti-armor missiles, which has two warheads and is capable of destroying armored vehicles, tanks and armored personnel carriers due to its high penetration power."  In addition to these new missiles the commander of Iran's Khatam ol-Anbia Air Base, Brigadier-General Ahmad Miqani announced the production of new radar systems with different frequency bands, "We have attained outstanding progress in area of manufacturing and optimizing different types of defense systems and information and communication systems."

rfn=Jerusalem -  "Tension With Syria Can Erupt Into War In An Instant" is the title of the article by Haaretz columnist Aluf Benn afer a week of rhetoric and statements between Jerusalem/Damascus of extreme hostility at an almost unprecedented level.  Israel Foreign Minister Avidgor Lieberman warned the next war would not just defeat Syria militarily but also said it would remove the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.  Damascus responfed immediately, through its Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem, that he next war would be fought inside Israel's cities.  Benn wrote, "The Six Day War (1967) erupted after the Chief of Staff at the time, Yitzhak Rabin, threatened to harm the Syrian regime for supporting Fatah's sabotage acts.  A covert direct threat by the MI (Military Intelligence) Chief to foreign Military Attaches apparently lit the spark that led to war."

Benn writes a similar crisis has suddenly erupted and not only due to the rhetoric flying between Damascus/Jerusalem but also due to the recent assassination of a major Hamas weapons operative in Dubai, barrel bombs on Israel's south beaches sent by Palestinian militant groups, and Iran's new missile developments.  And Benn is of course aware pre-emptive attack is part of Israel's security doctrine and its pre-emptive attack in June 1967 led to Israel's most impressive victory.  Then forty years later, September 2007, Israel destroyed Syria's plutonium nuclear facility which was financed by Iran and staffed with North Koreans.

rfn=Damascus -  Ynet News reports Israel Knesset member, Ahmad Tibi of the United Arab List-Ta'al, has admitted to Al Jazeera that Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman's statements about removing the regime of Syria President Bashar al-Assad is no exaggeration and is Israel's true policy.  Teheran-Damascus also realize this and have placed Hezbollah in Lebanon on full alert.  This was mentioned by the Saudi paper Okaz but in the meantime Damascus is not stepping back from its warnings as the Syria state controlled paper, Tishreen, the mouthpiece for the government, wrote in today's editorial, "Israel thought it could wage wars and not suffer the consequences-but it was wrong.  It tested the patience of Syria and the Arab and Islamic nations-and it turned out that this patience has its limits.  Israel is testing Syria's determination to restore its conquered land by all the legitimate means at its disposal.  The path to peace is open and its conditions are known, but the path of destruction can also be open the moment Israel complies with the aggressive tendencies of leaders who have crime running in their veins and the their way is the way of the mafia."

rfn=Munich -  In the face of Teheran's deceptive intransigence, coupled with new missile production, there was a policy meeting between Russia-NATO on the sidelines of the 46th Annual Munich Security Conference between Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen.  RIA reports this statement was released afterward that both parties are "to develop political dialogue and practical cooperation within the Russia-NATO Council."  This is diplomatic code for meetings between Russia-NATO military officials and combined military operations in the field.  This is an extension of the Kissinger-Primakov Strategic Working Group (SWG) instituted in 2007.  Russia is the only ally in position to threaten Iran with any sustained offensive.

night watch:  rfn=KARBALA -  "I have concerns and expect to be targeted on the return route like what happened on the way to Karbala.  This is our destiny..."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the statement from Shia pilgrim Balasim Khalaf, 51, during the final day of the Shia pilgrim ritual in the religious center of Karbala 50 miles (80 km) south of Baghdad.  Today was the third attack this week but the difference this time the latest explosion a car bomb, was accompanied by two mortar attacks fired from northeast of the city.  PressTV quoted Provincial Governor Amalheddin al-Hir and Health Ministry Officials on the latest attacks which have killed 31 and wounded 150.  The attacks on the more than five million pilgrims are expected but this seems more than the usual solitary suicide attack.  This year Teheran has maintained a sustained series of attacks which some pilgrims actually expect to be heavier on the return home. 

Some pilgrims are reported to be paralyzed with fear and are afraid to return.  Aqeel al-Masosi, 32, in Karbala with his wife and two children said, "This visit has become a hell for us.  We don't know what to do, whether to say or return."  It is a hell created by Teheran knowing this will inflame the sectarian division across the country in addition to the disputes over the March 7 elections over candidate eligibility.  At the same time, in Lebanon, Hezbollah Secretary-General Syyed Hassan Nasrallah, PressTV reports, accused the U.S.-Israel of Wednesday's motorcycle bomb attack in Karbala.  Almost every word of Nasrallah's statements are written by Teheran and they obviously intend for Washington to get caught up in the latest violence.

rfn=Berlin -  "For the past two years Iran has repeatedly bluffed and played tricks.  It has played for time and of course we in the international community cannot accept a nuclear armed Iran."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the policy statement from German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle just before his meeting in Berlin with Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.  This comes as the two will attend the three day 46th Annunal Munich Security Conference beginning Friday with the main concern obviously Iran's nuclear weapons program and its parallel ballistic missile development.  Russia was one of the first governments to warn, more than a year ago, that Iran was conducting satellite tests, not for any scienticfic research or telecommunications puposes but to produce longer range ballistic missiles.

rfn=Munich -  The meeting between Westerwelle-Lavrov indicates Berlin-Moscow will present a united front, not only at Munich, but also at the next United Nations Security Council meetings on Iran sanctions which will most likely target Iran's gasoline imports.  Significantly it will be China Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi who will deliever the keynote address at Munich since Beijing has always been the main supporter of Iran's nuclear/ballistic missile programs since Beijing realizes Iran has the potential of weakening three of China's rivals, the West-India-Russia.  That is why publicly senior Chinese officials constantly repeat the mantra of a negotiated solution.  IRNA reports Iran Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki will not only attend but also address the gathering during an opening day session and attend some of the panel discussions. 

There has even been speculation Mottaki could meet with Westerwelle-Lavrov.  If so Lavrov will request Teheran submit more information to the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency based in Vienna and I suspect Mottaki will make an empty pledge to do so as part of Teheran's constant effort to create confusion in the mind of the enemy which has worked very effectively since the West has attempted to believe (f)allout war can be avoided.  Also in attendence at Munich will be German Defense Minister Karl-Theodor Zu Guttenberg, U.S. Senator John Kerry, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and Senator John McCain.

rfn=Muzaffarabad -  Al Jazeera reports some of the speakers at Thursday rally in Muzaffarabad, in Pakistan's part of Kashmir, were members of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) which created the Taliban and have long been direct sponsors of Islamic militant groups attacking India's occupation of Kashmir.  And in Lahore, Pakistan's second largest city and almost on India's border, one of the speakers Friday will be Hafiz Muhammad Saeed, his first public appearance after being released from house arrest in June.  Saeed is the head of Jamaat-ud-Dawa the political wing of Lashkar-e-Taiba the militant unit which staged the Mumbai assault in November 2008 and came close to setting off the fourth war between India/Pakistan since 1947.  February 5 is a national holiday in Pakistan and for years it has been used as "Kashmir Solidarity Day" as Dawn reports there was a minute of silence across the country at 10:00 am to remember the 47,000 people killed in Kashmir since the Islamic uprising began November 1989.

The ISI officials who spoke at the Thursday rally in Muzaffarabad annouced a timetable will be set by them for the removal of India's occupation of Jammu-Kashmir.  This comes as infiltration attempts into Kashmir were increased along with cross border firing by Pakistan troops providing cover fire for infiltration teams.  India has often threatened to respond with its hot pursuit policy by attacking the militant training bases inside Pakistan which would indeed set off the fourth war.  Kamal Hyder, Al Jazeera correspondent in Islamabad, observed the rallies and demonstrations "hold more fervor because there's considerable anger.  It is an attempt to try and muster support within Pakistan and to try and capitalize on the anti-American sentiment that is growing in this particular part of the world.  It will be an opportunity for Saeed to be able to rally the people behind him, and of course on the self-determination of the Kashmiri people."

An AFP reporter witnessed thousands of people in Lahore chanting the slogans; "We want Jihad against India" and "Kashmir will become Pakistan".

night watch:  rfn=DAMASCUS -  "Don't test our determination.  One day you threaten Gaza, the next day you threaten Lebanon, then Iran and now Syria."  Jerusalem Post/SANA report that was only part of the angry response by Syria Foreign Minister Wallid Moallem after Israel Defense Minister Ehud Barak, earlier this week, warned of another war with Syria, expanding into an allout regional war, then negotiations afterward.  Foreign Minister Moallem continued that Syria "assesses that such a war will break out, we must not rule out such a possibility.  I would say it will be a total and expansive war, whether it begins in south Lebanon or in Syria."  That it will be "total and take place inside your cities."  Moallem was speaking at a joint press conference with Spain Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos after his meeting with President Bashar al-Assad who accused Israel of pushing the region into war.  Foreign Minister Moratinos attempted to defuse the situation by saying he did not hear the "drums of war" and hoped for peace negotiations to resume.

But those negotiations were nothing more than a diplomatic charade for public consumption as Damascus-Teheran began to resupply Hezbollah in Lebanon right after the cease fire in Lebanon August 2006.  In the meantime Israel Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman took extreme issue with the statements coming from Damascus.  Jerusalem Post/Monte Carlo radio report he responded with this salvo, "I tell Assad and al-Moallem clearly-what was said, yesterday marked a dramatic change of game, a direct threat on the State of Israel.  I think that a line was crossed, and that cannot be tolerated."  Foreign Minister Lieberman then added not only would Syria lose the war but Assad and his family would be out of power.  "We heard Defense Minister Barak's sincere call for peace with Syria and we have now received Syria's answer.  Whoever thinks territorial concessions will disconnect Damascus from the Axis of Evil is wrong."

Lieberman concluded by observing, "Syria must understand that it has to let go of the demand for the Golan in the same way that it gave up on the Greater Syria demand."  But those obsessions are still active within Syria's decision making circles, an obsession Iran finds useful, which is why Damascus has established a working military axis with Teheran which is designed not only to counter Israel but also Europe's 12,000 troops in south Lebanon.

rfn=Beirut -  Lebanon's government seems to be in agreement with Teheran-Damascus since Hezbollah, an extension of Iran's military, has become a principal member of Lebanon's government and Ynet News reports Lebanon Prime Minister Saad Hariri will soon be making another visit to Syria to sign agreements to increase bilateral relations.  Those agreements could imply military cooperation.

rfn=Gaza -  An integral part of Teheran's regional war preparations is the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza and Haaretz/AP report its leader Khaled Meshaal will be in Moscow next week.  I suspect he will be used to keep Russia informed on these latest developments especially concerning Iran ordering Hamas again to attack Egypt's control over the Rafah Terminal on the Egypt/Gaza border as in January 2008.

rfn=Teheran -  "It is not news for us...we were informed when they were installed, including about their exact location.  Patriot missiles could be easily deactivated by using simple tactics."  Ynet/Reuters report that was the announcement by Chief of Staff of Iran Armed Forces Major-General Hassan Firouzabadi on the Patriot missile batteries in the Persian Gulf positioned by Washington in Persian Gulf countries.  It is not surprising Teheran knows their precise location since Iran has excellent relations with every government in the Gulf and none of them believe the West should have military bases there.  Xinhua/IRNA report General Firouzabadi added, "I advise the regional states, especially the Islamic states, not to waste their funds on the systems since they had not passed any tests anywhere.  Installing the anti-missile Patriot missiles is a new trick to empty the pockets of the affluent Persian Gulf countries."

rfn=Canberra -  "If you look at the threat to regional and global peace, which Iran poses in its current nuclear weapons program, there is no alternative other than robust international action including areas such as these."  Ynet/AP reports that was the policy statement by Australia Prime Minister Kevin Rudd after his Defense Minister John Faulkner ordered three cargo shipments to Iran stopped by invoking the Weapons of Mass Destruction Act in the past few months.  One shipment invloved pumps which can be used to cool nuclear power plants.  Prime Minister Rudd explained, "If you look at the status of Iran's nuclear weapons program and their consistently thumbing of the nose at the International Atomic Energy Agency, the international community more broadly...there are no alternatives other than to maintain hard line."

I actually believe one of Iran's first targets for its nuclear warheads is Vienna since that is the headquarters of the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).  Teheran never welcomed the investigation.

night watch:  rfn=KARBALA -  "The latest reports said that 20 Shiite pilgrims were killed and 117 others wounded by the massive bombing in Karbala."  That was an Iraq Interior Ministry source speaking to Xinhua on the latest bomb attack on crowded Shia pilgrims in Karbala.  The suicide bomber set off a bomb in a minibus near the Technical Institute at the eastern entrance into the city.  At the same time, earlier Wednesday at 6:15 am, Asharq al-Awsat/AP report the first of two bombs targeting Shia pilgrims were set off in west and southwest Baghdad killing several people.  This comes as Iraq Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki accused members of the former Baath party of Saddam Hussein of carrying out the Monday suicide attack that killed 56 people.  These are actually being conducted by Teheran but they have instructed the Prime Minister to blame the Sunni Baath party in order to begin another wave of chaotic sectarian violence trapping U.S. forces in a crossfire.  Heavy fighting in Iraq will reduce the chances of the U.S.-Israel conducting any joint operation against Iran.

rfn=Teheran -  Iran Defense Minister Brigadier-General Ahmad Vahidi has announced the successful launch of the 10 foot research rocket Kavoshgar-3 (Explorer) as expected.  It was scheduled for the ten day Dawn celebrations that began February 1 to commemorate the arrival of the Ayatollah Khomeini from Paris to institute the new government still very much in place today. Jerusalem Post/AP report Iran also unveiled three new domestically built satellites:  Mesbah-2, Tolo and Navid-e-Elm-o-Sanat.  Iran also displayed a new light weight booster rocket the Simorgh which can carry a 100 kg (220 lbs) satellite 300 miles (500 kilometers) into space.  This comes exactly one year after Iran launched its Omid (Hope) satellite into space as Moscow warned Iran was using these satellite tests to produce very long rang ballistic missiles.

rfn=Paris -  France Foreign Ministry is expressing a similar concern as Xinhua reports its spokesman Bernard Valero warned, at a press briefing, these satellites shared the same technology used by ballistic missiles.  Valero stated the launch "can only intensify concerns of the international community" that Iran is trying to "develop a nuclear program in parallel."  Last year it was reported Iran was re-shaping its ballistic missile cones to carry warheads.

rfn=Wardak Province -  "The bombs are very cheap.  They only cost about $100, but they are very effective.  And we can use the scanner again and again."  WebIndia/Sky News report that was the announcement by a Taliban commander, Kamran, on the new roadside bombs the Taliban are now able to build which can not be jammed by electronic signals as in the case of bombs set off by mobile phones.  At least 10 kg (22 lbs) of explosives are packed in jerry cans with each having its own black box with individual frequency codes plus an antenna.  The bombs are detonated using a devise similar to a radio scanner and all the attacker has to do is punch the corresponding numbers whenever he chooses from a range of 500 meters to one kilometer (half mile).  These new, more powerful bombs, are being manufactured by bomb cells in Wardak province and can only be done with technological assistance from Teheran. 

night watch:  rfn=TEHERAN -  "Regional countries should know that this puppet show by the U.S., while claiming to create security in the region, is nothing except a new political ploy to increase the military presence at the expense of others."  Jerusalem Post/AP report those were some of the remarks by Iran Majlis (Parliament) Speaker Ali Larijani denouncing the increase of missile systems in four Persian Gulf states and Aegis anti-missile cruisers in the Persian Gulf by Washington.  Xinhua/Fars news agency report Larijani observed it seemed strange Washington remained unaware it was creating more problems in the region by sending more arms to the region.  This is not surprising since Washington has been programmed by obsessive projections of power, with no consideration for possible consequences for regions or countries, since the end of World War II in 1945.  It preferes to plan small wars which it can continue for several years then abandon the area, Iraq-Afghanistan being the latest example.  All of this is a major boom to defense contractors supplying the Pentagon and have been the most important decision makers in Washington for more than sixty years.  Nearly half of the U.S. economy is either directly or indirectly connected to the military budget.

rfn=Teheran -  "Iran spares no effort to help enhance defense capabilities of Qatar along with other Persian Gulf states."  IRNA report that was a regional policy statement by Iran Defense Minister Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi during his meeting with Qatar Crown Prince and Heir Apparent Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani in Teheran as Iran prepares to counter the Pentagon build up in the Gulf.  Defense Minister Vahidi called for a collective security arragnement with Qatar and other Persian Gulf states as Prince al-Thani said he was pleased with his meetings with high level Iranian officials and invited General Vahidi to come to Qatar.  The timing of this is significant since it comes as the West it preparing a new round of sanctions against Iran and just two months ago General Vahidi stated Iran's armed forces are ready.  Iran has also announced it will unveil new missiles during the ten day Dawn celebrations which commenced yesterday.

Qatar is host to an important Pentagon air base which is used for its operations in both Iraq-Afghanistan.  But what helps Teheran extend its military cooperation with the Gulf is that member states no longer believe a military presence from the West is needed.  They see Iran as a threat to the West, not to the Gulf.

rfn=Vandenburg Air Force Base -  WebIndia123/Fox News report the U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA) announced a failure of its Sunday missile interception test over the Pacific, "However, the Sea Based X-Band (SBX) radar did not perform as expected."  The test simulated an Iranian ballistic missile attack from either the Shahab-3 or the longer range Sejil-2 with the incoming test missile fired from Kwajalein in the Marshall Islands and an interceptor fired from Vandenburg Air Force Base in California.  Both missiles performed but not the SBX system built by Boeing-Raytheon.  No future test has yet to be announced.  The SBX is a major component of a ground based interception system.

Over Fox News last summer Israel Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon warned, in New York, that Iran now has missiles in its arsenal which could reach the U.S. East Coast.  Teheran has been able to achieve this due to a series of successful satellite tests for more than a year.

rfn=Jerusalem -  "In the absence of an arrangement with Syria, we are liable to enter a belligerent clash with it that could reach the point of an all-out regional war.  Just like the familar reality in the Middle East, we will immediately sit down after such a war and negotiate on the exact same issues which we have been discussing with them for the past 15 years."  Xinhua/Haaretz reports those were warnings made by Israel Defense Minister Ehud Barak speaking to senior officers in the Israel Defense Force (IDF) on the eve of such a war.  Teheran is prepared to enter with its brigade size Rapid Deployment Force (RDF) to fulfill its defense agreements with Damascus and in the name of supporting Palestinian people.  Teheran will also increase fighting in Iraq as an attempt to prevent any combined operations against Iran by Jerusalem-Washington.

rfn=Ankara -  "New countries have emerged in the Balkans over the last 20 years.  The countries that were in the former big federation (Yugoslavia) have now separately declared independence; new borders have been drawn and the last of these is Kosovo.  I believe it is necessary on the one hand to respect each country's independence and on the other hand pay attention to improving neighborly relations in the Balkans on the basis of friendship and peace."  That was a deliberate, diplomatically deceptive statement by Turkey President Abdullah Gul.  Hurriyet reports President Gul was speaking in Ankara at a joint press conference with Kosovo President Fatmir Sejdiu.  Both leaders are fully aware peace will not be maintained due to the suspicious "Northern Strategy" devised by European Union  (EU) Special Representative for Kosovo Pieter Feith.

Ankara is looking forward to the war and is prepared to fill the vacuum the EU/NATO, headquarted in Brussels, will be leaving after the smoke clears which could be easily set again this month since the Kosovo government in Pristina will attempt to open an office in the northern part of the divided city Kosovska Mitrovica next week.  Belgrade has already warned it will not be possible to implement the Northern Strategy peacefully.

rfn=Gornja Maoca -  B92 reports 600 State-Entity Police and Security agency officials from Bosnia-Herzegovina blocked off and raided the Wahhabi village of Gornja Maoca in Bosnia and detained ten people, including women, on suspicion they were engaged in activities which threatened the security and stability of Bosnia-Herzegovina.  The road of the village, near Brcko, is virtually unpassable, with all the signs leading to it written in Arabic and the children are schooled in the education system of Jordan.  The residents of the village do not follow the laws of Bosnia-Herzegovina but instead practice Sharia law and with most houses flying black Islamic flags.  A large cache of hunting weapons was uncovered as Federal Television reported the operation, the largest since 1995, was an effort to uncover the identity of people who are a security threat.

The operation was dubbed, Light, as another area near Brcko, Gornji Rahic was searched and large amounts of weapons were found in several buildings along with computer equipment and cell phones in one of the homes.  The Wahhabis are a radical Islamic sect concentrated mostly in Saudi Arabia.  A lot of mujahideen fighters settled in Bosnia after they were sent by Islamic countries in 1992 to break NATO's arms embargo against Bonsia-Herzegovina.  The embargo made the war worse by rendering Bosnia defenseless which provided NATO's its excuse to intervene.

night watch:  rfn=BAGHDAD -  "At 11:45 am (0845 GMT) a woman wearing an explosion filled belt blew herself up in the middle of a crowd of pilgrims going to Karbala."  The explosion took place in a predominantly Shia neighborhood in Baghdad and Al Jazeera reports that was the announcement by Major-General Qassim Atta, the spokesman for Baghdad Operational Command, on the suicide attack in Baghdad.  Asharq al-Awsat/AP report the attack killed at least 46 people and wounded more than 122.  There are six million pilgrims taking part in the annual procession to the Shia religious center of Karbala fifty miles south of the capital and it is impossible to protect all of them.  This provides a spiritual-blood field day for the forces which control Iran's government, forces which were shown on a website connected to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.  They were two satanic, Persian, pre-Islamic figures in the sky above a crown of people in Teheran's main square at sunset, one was a blood red bull with a man's face witn an insatiable expression and the other was a large black horseman wearing a helmet.  His face could not be shown but if it were it would not have been human.

rfn=Khomeini Mausoleum -  This is why just before the June 12 Presidential election Ayatollah Khamenei referred to "a feast" knowing he will be blessing a lot of sacrifices and slaughter.  Not of course just from suicide attacks designed to set off another round of sectarian violence, since this attack will be blamed on Sunnis.  But Teheran seems to have completed its military preparations for a grand war sacrifice since President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced Monday, "I am sure the Iranian people will do something on February 11, which will disappoint their enemies and the tyrants completely."  President Ahmadinejad was delivering a short address at Khomeini's Mausoleum on the first day of Iran's ten day Dawn celebrations of his return from Paris in 1979 and his setting up the new government by Feb. 11.  In December this site reported a warning from a member of Iraq's Parliament who said his Iranian contacts alerted him Teheran was going to make an annoucement of achieving not only a nuclear weapon but the means to deliver it.  That could be the announcement ten days from now as Iran's Defense Ministry stated last week they will be unveiling new missiles during the ten day celebrations.

rfn=Ankara -  Setting up Ankara's role could be Iran Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki as he attends the main meeting of the 21st annual Iran-Turkey Joint Commission on Wednesday in Ankara February 3.  Officially this only involves economic and trade issues but the presence of the Foreign Minister could indicate cooperation on regional events, war, in Iraq-Lebanon-Syria and the former Yugoslavia, cooperation against the West-Israel.  Mottaki will be meeting Turkey Foreign Minister Professor Ahmet Davutoglu, President Abduallah Gul, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Deputy Prime Minister.  Turkey's establishment also sees the possibility of benefiting from a weakened West.

rfn=Kosovska Mitrovica -  The crisis atmosphere in Kosovo/Serbia continues to spread as B92 is now reporting Serbia's temporary administration in Kosovska Mitrovica is calling for Serbs in the province to boycott all government insitutions controlled by the ethnic Albanian government in Pristina.  Kosovska Mitrovica is divided between Serbs/Albanians and is one of the flashpoints which could easily set off new fighting in the region and next week the Pristina government will attempt to open an office in the Serbian part of the divided city.  This move is supported, directed, by the Serbia government in Belgrade and is part of their opposition to the "Northern Strategy" by the Chief of the International Civilian Office (ICO) Peiter Feith, which is a scheme to remove Belgrade's influence from northern Kosovo.  Belgrade has already warned it will not be possible to implement the plan peacefully and Serbia has been rearmed by Russia and signed security agreements with Iran-Greece in 2006.  The Northern Strategy was also condemned by the temporary administration at a news conference.

night watch:  rfn=GEORGETOWN LAW SCHOOL -  During his speech at Georgetown Law School January 21 Hurriyet/AP report U.S. General David Petreaus, commander of the Pentagon's Central Command, referred to increasing missile defense systems in the Persian Gulf to counter any attack possible attack from Iran.  General Petreaus stated there are now eight new Patriot batteries, two in four countries, which have been upgraded to intercept short range missiles from Iran.  Teheran has produced a variety of missiles from short to long range ballistic missiles with satellite guidance systems and tested every variety in extensive maneuvers last September.  In the coming ten days, during the Dawn celebrations Feb. 1-11, commemorating the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran's Defense Ministry is to unveil newer missiles.  All during the past year Iran's military leaders have  boasted of producing missiles that cannot be intercepted.

We seem to be witnessing a race of who can upgrade the fastest, Iran or the U.S. and its Allies, Israel-Europe-Russia.  The four countries were not named in Petreaus' speech but are believed to be:  Kuwait, Bahrain the base of the U.S. Fifth Fleet, United Arab Emirates and Qatar which hosts and air base crucial to the Pentagon's war effort in Iraq-Afghanistan.  Saudi Arabia already has upgraded missile system and according to Ynet/New York Times the upgrading actually began during the administration of President George W. Bush.  These are some of the first targets for Iran's missiles when World War III  becomes full scale this year.  In an attempt to intercept Iran's medium range missiles the Pentagon has positioned Aegis cruisers full time in the Persian Gulf which contain advanced radar systems and have missile intercept technology.  Recently Iran's Defense Minister complained of the Western warships in the Gulf and said they had created a "military environment."  However, none of these measures will be able to intercept the longer range Shahab-3 missiles but for those the Allies have Israel's Arrow system which is directly integrated into the Pentagon. 

Some of these preparations have been mentioned in previous articles on this site as some of the details are classified and is part of Washington's overall ballistic missile interception strategy which includes cooperation with Europe and Russia.  This falls within the range of the Kissinger-Primakov Strategic Working Group (SWG) instituted in 2007 with the arrival of former U.S. Secretary of State Dr. Henry Kissinger into Moscow April that year to work with former Russia Premier Yevgeny Primakov.

rfn=Bangkok -  A Confidential Report, prepared by authorities in Thailand for the United Nations Sanctions Committee, confirms the cargo plane from North Korea, that was forced to make an emergency landing in Bangkok in December, was carrying more than 35 tons of heavy weapons to Teheran's Mehrabad International Airport.  The crew of five was arrested and the weapons were found to be:  rockets, fuses, rocket launchers and rocket-propelled grenades (RPG) all of which are used by Hezbollah-Palestinian militant groups in Lebanon-Gaza.  From Iran they are then shipped to Sudan and from there to Gaza through the Sinai Peninsula or they can be sent from Iran to Syria and from there to Lebanon.

rfn=Al-Bustan Rotana Hotel -  "He had five passports, one with his real name (Mahmoud al-Mabhouh) and the rest with different names, but this time he traveled under his real identity.  He had traveled to Dubai many times in the past in the same way without any problems. He would take the bodyguards with him anywhere he went, but there was no room for them on the flight.  Therefore he traveled alone and the security guards were slated to join him the next day."  Ynet news report that was a statement from Hamas spokesman in Damascus Talal Nasser on the assassination of Hamas official, Mahmoud al-Mabhouh January 20 in his room in the luxury hotel al-Bustan Rotana in Dubai.  The Times of London is now reporting he was killed after lunch by an injection with a drug that could simulate heart attacks, which is how his death was first reported until doctors detected poison nine days later from blood samples sent to Paris.  All the documents in his briefcase were photographed and the killers left a "Do Not Distrub" sign on the doorknob outside his door.

Security sources in Dubai indicated there were signs Mabhouh had been tortured by electric shocks and blamed a "foreign criminal" gang.  Hamas of course accused Israel.  The Israeli espionage organization Mossad had excellent reasons for doing so sime Mahbouh,who lived in Damascus, was one of the founders of Hamas' military wing and was responsible for the abduction and murder of two Israeli soldiers in 1989 the year of Hamas' founding.  Swissinfo/Reuters quoted Talal Nasser as stating Mabhouh definitely "played a key role in supplying the Palestinian people with weapons and money" including "special weapons".  Those "special weapons" could include the new missiles Teheran has been supplying Hamas that have the 35 mile range which can hit Tel Aviv from Gaza.  A source close to Hamas said, "I believe the issue of weapons he used to provide Hamas and resistance factions was the reason behind his being targeted."

However, former Mossad officer, Ram Yigra, is not convinced it was Israel as he explained over Army Radio the methods used are not the ones employed by Mossad, "When there cannot be foul-ups, then the thing is done quickly--and not in the course of torture and suchlike.  And using visiting politicians (as a cover) is not done.  In the end of the day Mr. Mabhouh was into arms smuggling, which means shady relationships."

night watch:  rfn=BAGHDAD -  One of the groups in Iraq, supported by Teheran, the Islamic State of Iraq, has claimed responsibility for the bomb offensive since August that has targeted Iraq government institutions.  Asharq al-Awsat/AP report the claim was made on militant web sites and stated the most recent attack, on the forensics lab, was the beginning of a Second Phase and that other attacks on Iraq government institutions will take place.  Most attacks have been against the Foreign and Finance Ministry and continued attacks risks disrupting nationwide elections March 7.  The attacks have killed nearly 400 people and wounded more than 1,000.

rfn=Ramadi -  Retired U.S. Army Lieutenant-Colonel Natan Freier, now a Senior Fellow at the Center for International Studies in Washington and former adviser to General Raymond Odierno, commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, is warning the elections may force most of the Sunni community to re-start the sectarian violence of 2005-06.  "The Iraqi government has to come to some accomodation with the Sunnis."  Colonel Freier has termed it "critically important" for Sunnis to participate otherwise when the violence increases Shia groups will be forced to retaliate and quite possibly with heavier fighting designed for Teheran to intervene directly in support of the Mahdi Army's Promised Day Brigades.  That is probably why the most prominent Sunni leader in Anbar province, Sheikh Ahmed Abu Risha is now threatening to call on Sunnis to boycott the elections March 7 even though he realizes it will throw the country into chaos.

Speaking from his compound in Ramadi Abu Risha warned if he calls for a boycott, "They will not care about the election, they will ignore it, maybe, if the decisions stand I will make my decision later about encouraging people to go vote or not."  The decision he is referring to is the candidate blacklist which has barred 456 candidates from running including seven in his own Council, 6,600 candidates have been approved but of course the vast majority are Shi'ites.  These decisions are ultimately controlled by Teheran which has timed this according to its military preparations.  So I assume heavy fighting resumes right after March 7.

rfn=Paris -  "As we move away from the engagement track, which has not produced the result some had hopef for, and move forward on the pressure and sanctions track, China will be under a lot of pressure to recognize the destabilizing impact that a nuclear armed Iran would have in the Gulf from which they receive a significant percentage of their oil supplies."  Ynet news report that was the warning to Beijing from U.S. Secretary of State Hilary Rodham Clinton speaking in Paris at a military academy.  Secretary of State Clinton was in Paris meeting with France Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner on the strengthening of the Trans-Atlantic Alliance after she confronted China Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi in London Thursday on sanctions against Iran and Jiechi's response was again noncommittal.  That is because Beijing has been the main supporter of Iran's nuclear-ballistic missile programs because Teheran's foreign policy has the potential to weaken three of China's rivals, the West-India-Russia.

rfn=Taipei -  Washington has responded by announcing Friday a major arms deal to Taiwan, which is claimed by Beijing.  Xinhua/France24 reports the sale involves Patriot missile systems, communication equipment for F-16s, Blackhawk helicopters and two minesweeper ships.  China Foreign Ministry has angrily responded by accusing Washington of violating the Sino-US Joint Communique of August 17, 1982 which prevented military support for Taiwan.  This is a prelude to at least reducing diplomatic relations not only between China/US but also Beijing's relations with Europe-Russia.

rfn=Ljubljana -  B92 is reporting Slovenia Prime Minister Borut Pahor has just made an unannounced trip to Belgrade to meet Serbia President Boris Tadic.  No reason was given but I suspect this is over the prospect of new fighting as a result of the European Union (EU) mission EULEX in Kosovo over its "Northern Strategy" to end Belgrade's control over the north of the province.  Slovenia is the northern most country which came out of the former Yugoslavia and borders Italy-Austria.  Ljubljana, as does Belgrade, has excellent relations with Teheran, which wants new fighting to erupt as another way of keeping the West busy and on the defensive.

night watch:  rfn=ANKARA -  "We have a common history, a common destiny and a common future, and cooperation between Greece and Turkey on European issues is a huge chapter."  ANA-MPA report that was the policy statement of Turkey Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu after his three and a half hour meeting in London with Greece Deputy Foreign Minister Dimitris Droutsas.  Hurriyet reports Davutoglu continued, "We have similar perspectives on many issues and agreed disagreements should not harm cooperation.  We had a long meeting with the Greek Minister and discussed the details of the letter between the two Prime Ministers and the steps to be taken in the upcoming period."  Deputy Foreign Minister Droustas will fly to Ankara in February and Turkey Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is to visit Athens in the spring.

No details were relased as to the nature of the new cooperation but it was mentioned in 2009 Ankara established high level Strategic Cooperation Councils with Damascus-Baghdad and something similar is now being planned with Athens.  Both governments support Belgrade with which Athens signed a security agreement in 2006 and are therefore opposed to the new "Northern Strategy" about to be put into place in order to remove Serbia's control over northern Kosovo which is mainly Serbian.  Turkey's new active role in the Balkans is one of the foundations of the aggressive new Turkish foreign policy outlined in Professor Davutoglu's book "Strategic Depth" which advocates Turkey become active in every region around Turkey establishing "order" (rule).  And Ankara's sense of order is very much opposed to Brussels' the headquarters of NATO.

rfn=Brussels -  The significance of the three and a half hour meeting is another in a long list of indications, since the division of Yugoslavia in 1991-92, that Ankara-Athens are no longer taking their marching orders from NATO headquarters Brussels even though Greece-Turkey are NATO members.  The latest dispute, which will lead to renewed fighting, revolves around the supicious "Northern Strategy" devised by Pieter Feith head of the International Civilian Office (ICO) and European Union (EU) Special Representative for Kosovo.  It is a scheme to remove Belgrade's control over northern Kosovo the province which declared independence Feb. 2008 with the support of some NATO/EU governments and both organizations are based in Brussels.  B92 is now reporting Feith and Yves de Kermabon, head of the EU mission in Kosovo, EULEX, will meet in Brussels Friday with the NATO Council.  This comes after a meeting between NATO military commanders on the issue.

In Moscow the spokesman for Russia's Foreign Ministry, Andrei Nesterenko has been instructed to release this statement on the deteriorating situation, "We believe that, under the existing circumstances, we should effectively prevent any attempt to implement decisions that may harm Kosovo.  By this I refer to the so-called strategy for the northern Kosovo which violates UN SC (United Nations Security Council) Resolution 1244 and generates tension."  Moscow has effectively rearmed Serbia after NATO's 78 day air campaign in 1999 as NATO has continually ignored any UN position on Serbia.  But NATO/EU are now setting the stage for its own disintegration as the Albanian language paper Koha Ditore writes that five EU members have refused to recognize Kosovo's independence therefore "it is impossible for Brussels to support the strategy.  Attempts to change the position of those five countries could strengthen the differences and jeopardize the strategy itself."

This is almost amusing.  NATO/EU are about to go to war with themselves.

rfn=Lashkar Gah -  "Apparently they were dressed in either Afghan National Army uniforms or police uniforms.  Several explosions have been heard."  Al Jazeera reports that was its correspondent in Kabul David Chater on the suicide commando mission conducted by the Taliban Friday in Lashkar Gah the capital of Helmand province in the south and the center of most NATO operations.  Taliban spokesman Qari Yousef Ahmadi stated seven fighters were involved in the assault on government buildings in the city.  AFP reports the bodies of five figthers were recovered afterward.

night watch:  rfn=KARACHI -  "Four unknown armed men riding two motorcycles opened fire and hurled hand grenades on NATO supply trucks and escaped.  The attack wounded three people on the trucks and damaged the trucks.  The trucks were bound for Afghanistan's Kandahar town."  Dawn reports that was the statement from local police official Mohammed Ali as Teheran-Islamabad expand the operation against NATO in Afghanistan.  As Dawn pointed out it is extremely unusual for attacks on NATO supply trucks to happen in Karachi, the port that is used to ship 75 percent of the alliance's supplies.  Almost always the attacks have happened in Pakistan's northwest tribal areas on the Afghanistan border near Quetta and Peshawar.  This comes just days after an attack on a U.S. convoy on the Kabul-Jalalabad road near Camp Phoenix east of the capital which is another major supply route.  At the same time Teheran is threatening to cut off Kabul from Tajikistan-Uzbekistan by increasing the Taliban operations in the north.

rfn=Washington -  Yesterday, concerns over this regional theatre and deteriorating situation, were seriously addressed by Pulitzer prize winning journalist and writer Steve Coll President/CEO of the New America Foundation testifying in front of the House Armed Services Committee.  "The potential of these India focused groups, with or without clandestine collaboration by Pakistan security forces to repeat or exceed the scale of the provocative attacks carried out in Mumbai on November 26, 2008, presents, in my judgment, one of the most serious current threats to U.S. interests in the complex of risks and dangers posed by Al Qaeda."  WebIndia123 reports Coll was referring to groups supported by Teheran-Islamabad like the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) directly connected with the Mumbai assault and, according to Russian intelligence carried out the operation with Al Qaeda.  Other groups in the complex, directed by Iran-Pakistan are the: Jais-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ). 

These units are at the vanguard of the Action Plan of Pakistan General Pervez Musharraf which he presented to Teheran while he was President of Pakistan in Feb. 2007.  This is similar to how the first war between India/Pakistan began in October 1947 with attacks by tribesmen advancing toward Srinagar supported by Islamabad.  "If one of those sub-networks did carry out a spectacular attack, the overwhelming likelihood is that it would be directed at India, which would again raise the specter of disruptive military conflict, undermining U.S. efforts in Afghanistan."  NATO would then be caught in a nuclear crossfire.  Coll stated there is no chance of Pakistan's military attempting to prevent any such attack.  "The Army also has a clear historical record of lacking the will to abandon its policies of using dangerous Islamist militias, including some affiliated with Al Qaeda, as proxies in its regional competition with India."

That is precisely the reason Teheran-Islamabad support these units as cross border firing and infiltration attempts by them increased this month.  Coll then outlined the trap the U.S. is in, "A risk facing the Obama Administration is that, in its anxiety to avoid aggravating the Pakistan Army and political establishment by making demands about Kashmir and India focused groups, it may leave relatively unmolested the very regional networks that evidence suggests have the talent, time and space to carry out ambitious violence whether it is in India or elsewhere."  Coll even mentioned these units are now recruiting doctors and post-graduate professionals to expand their operations.  Disrupting the West's military operations is the center of Teheran's foreign policy and military planning.

night watch:  rfn=BELGRADE -  Serbia First Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister Ivica Dacic will visit Washington for seven days.  B92 reports he will meet U.S. Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg, FBI Director Robert Miller and other U.S. officials and also attend the National Prayer Breakfast February 4.  The timing of this visit and its unusual length should not be surprising since during the past week the most serious dispute between the ethnic Albanian government in Pristina in Serbia province Kosovo and the Serbia government in Belgrade has taken place over the "Northern Strategy" designed to enable Pristina to control the Serbian communities in Kosovo's north.  The Northern Strategy is the brainchild of European Union (EU) Special Representative for Kosovo Pieter Feith and has already caused Kosovo/Belgrade to hurl near accusations at each other with Serbian officials openly stating it will be impossible for Pristina to implement the plan peacefully.

Events will come to a head early next month as Feith, as head of the International Civilian Office (ICO), presents his plan to representatives from EU governments in Vienna February 8 which have recognized Kosovo's independence that was declared Feb. 2008.  It is quite possible the next war could begin while Dacic is still in Washington or shortly after he returns.  And on February 9 the Albanian government in Pristina will attempt to establish its own government office in the northern part of the divided city of Kosovska Mitrovica, in the Serbian part of the city.  Not only has Serbia been rearmed by Russia since NATO's 78 day air campaign in 1999, but in 2006 Belgrade signed security agreements with Athens-Teheran and a month ago Ali Larijani the Majlis (Parliament) Speaker announced relations with Serbia should be "further stimulated."  Last week Romania signed a defense agreement with Serbia as did Portugal in 2009.  Serbia has also increased its strategic relations with Turkey.  The division of Yugoslavia in 1991 resurrected old historical disputes within Europe.

rfn=Baengnyeong -  "North Korea will likely continue such low intensity military provocations like this in the next few months.  But it is unlikely to take things to the extreme as it in general wants to maintain economic cooperation with South Korea."  France24/AFP report that was the informed observation by Baek Seung-Joo of the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses as North/South Korea exchanged artillery fire in the disputed Yellow Sea Northern Limit Line near the South Korean controlled island of Baengnyeong.  According to Swissinfo/Reuters North Korea has fired a second time with the South responding this time with two warnings.  Pyongyang claims this is part of its military training and its artillery rounds created 20-30 columns of water near the island as the South responded the first time by firing at the incoming shells.  Seoul has been conducting an emergency meeting as a result and may first decide to respond with economic pressure.

rfn=Sharm el-Shiekh -  WebIndia123/DPA report Egypt President Hosni Mubarak met Israel Defense Minister Ehud Barak at the Egyptian Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh Wednesday.  This was not convened as a joint effort to restart the peace process, as was announced by Egyptian officials, but instead to approve joint operations against the common enemy of Islamic extremism directed at both Egypt-Israel.  It is an extremism long in preparation and controlled by Teheran-Damascus which uses the Palestinian dispute with not only Israel but now also with Egypt and its construction of a new steel wall on the Egypt/Gaza border.  A lot of hatred has been generated at the government of President Mubarak due to its failure to support Palestinians in Gaza especially since Hamas took control over the territory in 2007.  It is a hatred Teheran is using as a weapon.  During this month there were exchanges of fire between Egyptian police and Palestinian militants near the Rafah Terminal.  Combined intelligence may have revealed Hamas will soon be ordered by Teheran to again attack the Rafah Terminal as in January 2008 with fifteen explosions. 

But this time the attack may be timed to coincide with another war against Israel joined by Hezbollah in Lebanon then entered by Damascus-Teheran.  Early last year President Mubarak warned by Hezbollah-Teheran to "beware the wrath of Egypt."  Iran fully supports any group in Egypt's opposition, whether it is the religious Muslim Brotherhood or the secular opposition now lead by Minister of Intelligence General Omar Suleiman which is why we no longer see Suleiman mentioned any more regarding Cairo-Jerusalem meetings.  Egypt is a country with deep divided loyalties including within its military, especially since Mubarak is former head of the Air Force.

night watch:  rfn=BAGHDAD -  "I've heard many explosions in the past, but nothing like this."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the statement from Hassan al-Saidi a mechanic who was close to the latest suicide car bomb attack in Baghdad which hit the forensics lab of Iraq's Interior Ministry killing 18 people and wounding 80.  The car bomber rammed his vehicle into the building which collapsed the day after four hotels were heavily damaged in three explosions in central Baghdad.  It is now being reported yesterday's attack also involved gunmen using silenced weapons.  Ever since Teheran began this offensive in August, against what are termed "hard" targets, sites heavily guarded, there have been reports of gunfire heard after the attacks.  Other than the hotel attacks yesterday all the targets since August have been government offices.

Asharq al-Awsat/AFP are reporting the bomb attacks in August-October-December have killed nearly 400 people and wounded more than a 1,000.  With so many heavily guarded, "hard" targets under constant attack it proves the suspicion, in and out of Iraq, that the security forces in the country have been heavily infiltrated.  Asharq al-Awsat is also reporting Ali al-Mousawi, media adviser to Irap Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, has complained of television channels in Iraq airing programs from Damascus that support armed attacks in Iraq and attempt to mobilize the population.  Prime Minister al-Maliki is not surprised at this since he was told a year ago, during his visit to Teheran, that peace in Iraq is not about to happen.

rfn=Kabul-Jalalabad Road -  "The biggest danger is that there might be a second device in the area after they've (Iran) attract the security forces to the scene.  There are huge numbers of security forces around the area at the moment."  Al Jazeera/Reuters report that was the concerned account by correspondent David Chater after a suicide attack at the front gate of Camp Phoenix just to the east of Kabul on the Kabul-Jalalabad road.  Chater's concerns are well founded since he realizes it is standard practice for Teheran to have another explosion right after security and people gather at the site of an initial attack.  Chater added, "This is the most dangerous road in Afghanistan.  The highway is used by many military patrols.  It is also the main route for the supply of NATO and American troops."  And that is precisely why Teheran has made this road so dangerous.  The attack targeted a U.S. convoy and caused some casualties among the foreign troops with U.S. units sealing off the area immediately afterward.  This comes excactly one week after the attack in Kabul by the suicide unit composed mostly of gunmen from Pakistan.

rfn=Teheran -  "Iran's Defense Ministry will inaugurate several missiles and arms projects during the Fajr (Dawn) 10 day period, marking the victory of the 1979 Islamic revolution."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the announcement by Iran Revolutionary Guard commander Massoud Jazayeri as the religious-military government prepares its annual celebration of the arrival from Paris of the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini Feb. 1, 1979 and by Feb. 11 the new government was then in place.  It has not only survived but has become the center of planning events in and out of the region, planning which has become World War III with this year being the one when Teheran discovers the accuracy of its ballistic missiles against the West, Iran's main international rival.  In mid-December Iran tested an ugraded version of the long range multi-stage Sejil-2 with guidance systems designs based on successful satellite tests to enable the Defense Ministry to produce a missile with a very long range.

Last summer Israel Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon warned, over Fox News, that Iran now possessed ballistic missiles that can reach the U.S. East coast and just a few months later, at the September G20 summit in Pittsburgh, the heads of state of France-US-Britain expressed their concern over the mountain nuclear facility outside Qom, the religious center south of Teheran.  I suspect Teheran will announce next week new missiles under development, perhaps even a three stage rocket.  Several years ago an Iranian official stated it is easy to add more stages, but of course what Iran needed was the guidance system to go with it.

rfn=Moscow -  Xinhua/ISNA are now reporting the Russia government has cancelled its three days of meeting with Saeed Jalili the Iran Supreme National Security Council Secretary that were to begin today.  With these latest developments, and with Russia/Iran still fighting for control over the resources of the Caucasus, there is obviously no room for agreement, not even for diplomatic pretense, which has been the basis for Moscow/Teheran relations for the past fifteen years.  Even RIA today admitted relations between Moscow/Teheran have grown suddenly cold during the past several months since the June elections.

rfn=Kuwait City -  In order to address the growing concern of the government of Kuwait, IRNA reports Ali Larijani the Speaker of Iran's Majlis (Parliament) is meeting Kuwait Emir Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabir al-Sabeh on the latest news concerning regional/international developments.  Larijani's visit may actually have been a summons since Kuwait, at the northern point of the Persian Gulf and between Iraq-Iran, is in no position to remain unconcerned especially since it hosts one of the Pentagon's most important bases in the region, a crossfire position.  Recently the Kuwait Foreign Minister warned the new violence in Iraq could easily spill over into Kuwait so I suspect the Emir is inquiring of Larijani how soon should he expect the Pentagon base to be hit.

rfn=Bijhwat Village -  "Our troops retaliated with full force also using heavy weapons which ended the Indian firing that lasted for about half an hour."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the announcement by Pakistan security official Nadeem Raza accusing India of another "unprovoked" firing this month into Pakistan.  This time it was again near the Pakistan city of Sialkot in the Punjab just south of Jammu, fire which hit the village of Bijhwat.  But a spokesman for India has in turn accused Pakistan units of providing more cover fire for another infiltration team into Kashmir.  There have been infiltration attempts almost every day this month and will soon force India to use its hot pursuit policy and attack the training bases inside Pakistan.  This latest incident took place as India staged its massive Republic Day ceremony in Delhi.

rfn=Belgrade -  There are more reports the "Northern Strategy" plan by Pieter Feith, the European Union (EU) Special Representative for Kosovo and head of the International Civilian Office (ICO), will cause renewed fighting in the former Yugoslavia between Serbia and its province of Kosovo which declared independence in Feb. 2008.  B92/RTS report Serbia's Minister for Kosovo State Security Oliver Ivanovic has warned it is "absolutely impossible" for the ethnic Albanian government in Pristina to implement its "Northern Strategy" without the use of force.  And that Belgrade "does not accept any kind of integration of northern muncipalities into the Kosovo system."  Ivanovic then added the announcement of the opening of a Kosovo Government office in northern Kosovska Mitrovica, the Serbian part of the divided flashpoint city, on Feb. 9, is a "provocation."

Serbia Minister for Kosovo Goran Bogdanovic also warned Belgrade will "never accept closing down of Serbian institutions" and that holds for all parts of Kosovo where Serbs live.  Bogdanovic added there is "no communication with Feith" since he "does not represent the European Union in Kosovo and Metohija but the countries which had recognized Kosovo's independence.  His statements addressed at Serbs and strengthening of the independence gives us the right not to communicate with him."

rfn=Vienna -  B92 and the Albanian language daily Koha Ditore are reporting the Kosovo Albanian government and the ICO strategy for northern Kosovo is "nearly complete" the scheme which they will attempt to use to remove Belgrade's control over the province's north which is primarily Serbian and refuses to accept Pristina's rule.  Final document, financial report for its implementation will be presented to member countries of the International Executive Board in Vienna on February 8.  The Kosovo Albanian government-ICO have allocated 4 million Euros to enforce the plan.  A plan that sets the stage for the most severe case for renewed fighting in the former Yugoslavia since the Albanian community erupted in Macedonia Feb. 2001.  Serbia has been rearmed by Russia since NATO's 78 day air campaign in 1999 and in 2006 Belgrade signed security agreements with Teheran-Athens, then with Lisbon in 2009 and only last week with Bucharest.  Belgrade has also increased its strategic relations with Ankara.

night watch:  rfn=TEHERAN -  New information has surfaced which reveals the agencies directly involved in Iran's nuclear weapons production, especially designed to manufacture a nuclear warhead for Iran's Shahab medium range missiles that have a range of 1,250 miles and are launched from a mobile platform.  Spiegel International has jsut publicized a detailed article by Dieter Bednarz, Erich Follath and Holgar Stark.  Their article is based on classified documents which have been compiled into an intelligence dossier currently circulating in diplomatic circles in Washington-Vienna-Tel Aviv-Berlin.  Information from former Iran Deputy Defense Minister General Ali Reza Asgarim who defected two years ago and now lives under another namem and Iran nuclear scientist Shahram Amiri, who disappeared in Mecca in June 2009, also contributed to the conclusions in their article.  It confirms suspicions that public statements from Teheran on the nature of its nuclear program and the agency responsible for it have been at best a half truth, part of Teheran's campaign of deception to create confusion in the mind of the enemy, something Teheran has a genius for.

Teheran would admit the only agency involved in nuclear production is the Nuclear Energy Council (NEC) but this new information has revealed working alongside the NEC is a secret branch of the military controlled by the Defense Ministry and has clandestine structures, the Department for Expanded High Technology (FEDAT).  In all the documents reviewed two names appear most consistently at the center of the secret weapons program, Kamran Daneshjoo, 52, who studied engineering in Manchester, England and spent several years working for Iran's Center for Aviation Technology.  Dameshjoo is Iran's new Minister for Science Research and Technology and it is believed the Center became the sub-organization of the Defense Ministry known as FEDAT.  The head of the organization is the other prominent name mentioned, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, 48, a Revolutionary Guard officer and teaches at Teheran's Imam Hossein University.

Iran's government has divided the assignments in the secret weapons program by having the NEA concentrate on uranium enrichment and FEDAT on producing a nuclear warhead.  Documents reveal Iran conducted a non-nuclear detonation test six years ago.  The problem they had to overcome is to uniformly ignite the conventional explosives surrounding the uranium core-which is needed to produce the required chain reaction.  It is believed the test was carried out with a warhead encased in aluminum.  Everything but the core was "real".  The engineers used thin fibers and a measuring circuit board in place of the fissile material.  This enabled them to measure the shock waves and photograph flashes that simulate the detonation of a nuclear bomb with some degree of accuracy.  Results were so positive the Iranian government classified the technology as "feasible."

Spiegel International has obtained a FEDAT organizational chart and the names of scientists working for the agency.

rfn=Moscow -  Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) has met Monday with Russia Ambassador to Iran Alexander Sadovnikov and I suspect it is due to the recent revelations in the above article.  This causes more concern as the situation has become more immediate and adds weight to arguments for a military attack since economic sanctions would have no impact on Iran's secret weapons program.  Russia's version of sanctions has been to delay completion of Iran's nuclear facility at Bushehr on the Persian Gulf which Teheran contracted Russia to build in 1995.  But Iran/Russia have been fighting for control of the resources of the Caucasus since 1994 and under no circumstances would Moscow ever complete Bushehr for a government like Teheran.  Moscow's decisons are being directed by the Kissinger-Primakov Strategic Working Group (SWG) which was instituted in 2007 and is designed to not only restore Russia's complete control over the resources but to also be the main offensive threat to Iran. 

Just a few months after SWG was established Russia's strategic bombers became operational again for the first time since the Cold War ended in 1990.  Xinhua/Fars news agency report the meeting in Teheran was held on the eve of the three day visit to Moscow by Saeed Jalili the Secretary of Iran Supreme National Security Council.

rfn=Baghdad -  A large mushroom cloud rose after three large suicide car bombs were set off in central Baghdad targeting hotels used by international media.  Swissinfo/Reuters report shock waves broke windows and caused major damage to the Ishtar Sheraton Hotel on the east bank of the Tigris river and caused concrete towers protecting the hotel on the Abu Nawas riverside boulevard to collapse like dominos and caused some damage to the Reuters offices.  Houses near the al-Hamra hotel collapsed in the second explosion and a third was set off near the Babylon hotel which is used for government meetings.  This is less than two months before March 7 elections and continues a bomb offensive by Teheran since August with major attacks in October and December.  So far 36 people have been counted dead in today's attack with 71 wounded.  Previously the attacks have concentrated on government agencies especially the Foreign-Financial Ministries.

Al Jazeera reports the Palestine Hotel, located almost next door to the Sheraton was also affected by the blasts which took place within minutes of each other.  Washington Post reports three of their employees were injured.  Journalist Ahmed Rushdi warned, "These hotels were supposed to have major security because its open for all foreign journalists.  Targeting these major hotels mean that everyone in Baghdad is targeted."  And that is just the kind of message Teheran is sending.  Alaa Makki, a Minister of Parliament stated, "The area indicates that there might have been infiltration in the security forces, because those areas attacked were so secure and isolated.  They were in the secure Green Zone where some TV channels and a hotel with VIPs going regularly are."

Saad al-Mutalabi, an adivser to the Iraq Council of Ministers explained, "It may be a signal that al-Qaeda (Iran) is trying to say that they are against the economic build up in Iraq because the Iraqi government is keen on expanding the economy this year."

rfn=Baghdad -  One of the more prominent Iraq political leaders is even warnings this is the just the beginning of more attacks and that the March 7 election will do nothing to cause stability in fact quite the opposite since the elections will not be fair.  Speaking to Asharq al-Awsat was Iyad Allawi, head of the Iraqi List coalition and the first Prime Minister of Iraq after Saddam Hussein's removal in 2003, "We are still in the beginning.  I believe that the escalation is continuous and dangerous, and it will continue.  It was orginally based on political competition and reached the level of indecent assaults and hurling non-political accusations.  The problem is not the situation before the election.  The biggest problem, or the bulk of the problem, will emerge after the elections."  Allawi said the elections will be held on time "but they will not be fair.  The prevailing atmosphere proves this.  The outcome will probably be settled before the election begins.  If the (elections) are not comprehensive, with the exclusion of terrorists and murderers only, it will be a failure.  It is possible to describe it as a failure from now.  I am not talking about the Sunnis and Shiites.  I am talking about Iraqis.  The media should not encourage what is intended for Iraq; which is to ignite the flames of sedition."

Allawi accused Washington of playing a major role in the ongoing violence since Washington destroyed Iraqi institutions right after the 2003 invasion ruining any chance for an effective Iraq government.  Washington is of course noted for having no sense of responsibilty and is looking for a way out with no heavy fighting, an enormous false hope as Teheran intends to take advantage of the trap U.S. units are in.  Allawi recently met with Iran's Ambassador and stated he advocates excellent relations with Teheran as long as Iraq's sovereignty is respected.  Allawi ended by saying he accepted an invitation to visit Iran after the March 7 election and will do so whatever the election results are.

night watch:  rfn=TRIPOLI -  "The oppressive blockade imposed on the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip by the Israeli occupation forces necessitates every Arab state to overcome differences and to stand together in way that will amplify joint Arab action."  Ynet reports that was a statement released by Syria President Bashar Assad and Libya head of state Colonel Muammar Gaddafi during their meeting in Tripoli.  Officially they only met to call for joint action against Israel but unofficially I suspect the two leaders concentrated on the new steel barrier the Egyptian government of President Hosni Mubarak has been constructing on the Gaza/Egypt border around the Rafah Terminal.  The terminal has been the scene of fire exchanges between Egyptian police and Palestinian militants led by Hamas during the past month and has been the subject of popular demonstrations around the Arab world including Amman, Jordan and most recently last week in Beirut.

Nothing symbolizes the growing isolation of President Mubarak than this new steel wall as he increasingly finds himself out of step with the political forces that have been sweeping the region for the past thirty years since the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran led by the Ayatollah Khomeini.  Just two years later Egyptian radicals, inspired by the Iranian revolution, assassinated Mubarak's predecessor Anwar al-Sadat due to ending his leading role for Arab unity and establishing close relations with the West.  Mubarak has since always seen it as his personal mission to isolate Iran and combat Islamic extremism but as a result has only isolated himself as he removed himself from taking any position in support of what is perhaps the most popular cause in the region the Palestinian issue.  Mubarak has always been fearful of any move on Cairo's part to support the Palestinians as tantamount to supporting the Islamic militant units like Hamas which was created by Teheran and actively supported by Damascus.

Therefore under no circumstances would Mubarak make any move toward the full opening of the Rafah Terminal which Hamas forced open with fifteen explosions January 2008 on orders from Teheran.  The support Egyptian militant groups receive from Teheran-Hezbollah forced Mubarak to even warn both of them publicly last year to "beware the wrath of Egypt."  This is why war is coming between Iran/Egypt and probably declared first by Mubarak.  There is not even full diplomatic relations between Cairo/Teheran even though Iran Majlis (Parliament) Speaker Ali Larijani recently met Mubarak in Cairo and it was obvious the two came to no agreement.  Even before Israel began its Operation Cast Lead offensive into Gaza, Dec. 2008, both Damascus-Teheran openly sponsored anti-Egypt/anti-Mubarak demonstrations.  Now this meeting between Assad-Gaddafi which has been held after a month of meetings between Damascus-Teheran and Palestinian militant groups, Hezbollah and Lebanese officials, Riyadh-Ankara all of them agreeing and calling for more cooperation on these issues, an unparalled example of regional unity with the sole exception of Cairo, their main target even more than Jerusalem.

rfn=Cairo -  "We won't allow chaos on our borders nor will we allow acts of terrorism and sabotage to take place on our lands.  Fortifications and construction on our eastern border are a pure Egyptian sovereign act.  Any interference in that matter from anybody will be unacceptable."  Xinhua/Haaretz report that was an excerpt from an angry speech by Egypt President Hosni Mubarak during a nationwide televised address which had been heralded by government owned papers for days as a major speech.  President Mubarak's blind hatred of Islamic radicalism has prevented him from seeing that all he would have to do to solidfy his position in the region, and restore him as a major leader in the Arab world, would be to open the Rafah Terminal which by itself would reduce the support of the Egyptian and regional opposition to him.

rfn=Nawapachi Area -  IRNA is reporting heavy fighting in two areas of Kashmir.  One action took place in the Nawapachi area of Kishtwar which killed a major commander of the Islamic militant unit Hizb-ul-Mujahideen which is supported by Teheran-Islamabad and has been at the forefront of the Islamic uprising ever since it began November 1989.  Fighting began after militants attacked an Indian search patrol and the commander of the militant group Tariq Ahmed Lone was killed by mortar fire on the house he was using.  The other action was in the Mendhar forested areas of Poonch frontier as another India patrol was attacked during a search operation.

night watch:  rfn=BE'ER SHEVA -  "Lebanon is the only country in the world which has a military organization, Hezbollah, that operates independently of the government and is supported by two foreign countries, (Syria-Iran) while being part of the cabinet."  That was the frank assessment of Hezbollah, the 40,000 member extension of Iran's army, by Yossi Peled Israel Minister Without Portfolio addressing the reality of Israel's main enemy.  Peled continued by warning, "If a conflict does erupt in the North we will hold both Lebanon and Syria responsible."  And that the purpose of the war is "to ensure the posterity of the Jewish State."  His statements are confirmed by analysts interviewed by the Washington Post Saturday which quoted Hezbollah expert Judith Palmer Harik who said Hezbollah "has been fortifying lots of different areas.  We are looking at a much more expanded battle in all senses of the word."

This is no exaggeration and despite Hezbollah's ridiculous claims of victory in 2006 everyone of its longest range rockets, capable of hitting Tel Aviv, were destroyed within hours by the Israel Air Force.  Former head of Israel Defense Force (IDF) Intelligence General  Aharon Zeevi Farkash stated that was due to the precise intelligence they had at their disposal.  Those were Iranian made rockets with a range of 180 miles (300 km) and that is the main reason the IAF continues to maintains daily surveillance over Lebanon.  This is supported by Paris which has been meeeting Lebanon Prime Minister Saad Hariri.  France Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner explained his government's reasons for supporting any decision Jerusalem makes regarding Lebanon, "Israel is our friend, and if there was a threat to Lebanon it will come from a military adventure carried out by Hezbollah in the interest of Iran."

Israel Chief of Staff Lieutenant-General Gabi Ashkenzai explained, "There is a war in the Middle East between two camps, the extreme and the moderate, which is pushing Iran to take radical steps.  Without Iran's support to finance weapons and terror groups they will be lacking the means available to them today."  Teheran-Damascus have long been leading the extreme element in the region which is a direct threat to Paris' hold over Lebanon which France created out of Syria.  That is why France is a leading contributor to the 10,000 European troops in south Lebanon serving under UNIFIL and why the real Lebanon/Israel borders actually begins at the Litani river nearly twenty miles inside the country.  Lebanon has already become smaller.  Those 10,000 troops are in effect another division supporting Israel and represents Europe's concern of Teheran's growing influence in the entire region.  This is not just about Lebanon.  The war this year will indeed be an expanded version of the one fought in 2006 with Syria-Iran entering.

rfn=Baghan-e-Markazi -  "A rocket fired by militants from an unknown location hit a police checkpoint in Baghan-e-Markazi district killing a police officer on the spot."  Xinhua reports that was announcement by Amir Gul District Chief.  The significance of this attack continues to indicate Teheran is enabling the Taliban and foreign fighters to expand their operations in the north along the borders of Tajikistan-Uzbekistan.  Fighting here threatens Kabul's access to both countries and NATO supply lines.  There was also an attack on an Afghanistan police-army convoy in Dashti Archi district.  The main base of the Taliban in Kunduz province is Chardara district and in neighboring Baghan province their main base is Baghan-e-Markazi district.  There is also consistent fighting now in the northern provinces of: Balkh, Faryab and the northeast province of Takhar.

This is the result of the Trilateral meetings sponsored by Teheran between the Foreign Ministers of Iran-Afghanistan-Pakistan.  The most recent meeting was last week in Islamabad.

night watch:  rfn=BEIRUT -  "Israel has accustomed us to aggression and we are used to being vigilant and on the lookout all the time.  That is what we are doing."  That was a source from Hezbollah speaking to Asharq al-Awsat as the extension of Iran's military placed all its units on alert as reports continue of Israel sending more units to the Lebanon border for maneuvers.  Haaretz quoted Hezbollah Deputy Secretary-General Naeem Kassem warning the unit was prepared to retaliate against any attack.  Syria is also expressing serious concern as it mobilized its Fourth Reserve including calling up those who live in Lebanon.  Damascus then announced, "Syria opposes any aggression against any Arab country, especially Lebanon."  Ynet has also reported it is not only Hezbollah units in the south on alert but every unit in the country including the Hezbollah stronghold in the hills of eastern and western Lebanon.

Their concerns and fears are well founded as everyone knows pre-emptive attack is part of Israel's defense doctrine and Israel's most impressive victory was in 1967 mainly against Syria when Israel attacked first.  There was also Israel's air attack on the Syrian nuclear facility in Sept. 2007.  PressTV reports Lebanon Prime Minister Saad Hariri, in an interview with Le Monde, stated he expected an attack and in one day last week Israel conducted 25 surveillance flights over the country.  Paris has been attempting to reassure Prime Minister Hariri that France will prevent any attack but I don't know how sincere Paris' statement is since France is also opposed to not only Iran's growing influence in the region but also Syria-Hezbollah's close military relations with Teheran.  And it was France which created Lebanon out of Syria in order to retain a foothold in the region.

France Foreign Minister Bernard Kochner has officially announced France does not expect an Israeli offensive then unofficially warned "some Iranian leaders" might decide to escalate the situation.  That could easily happen since Teheran has conducted high level meetings all this month with officials from Syria-Hezbollah-Hamas.  Jerusalem also noted those meetings and has since announced "maneuvers" which I suspect are offensive.

rfn=Pristina -  "This is not an EU (European Union) strategy, although we have been consulted during its making, just as other partners have been."  B92 reports that was the admission by EU spokeswoman Karin Limdal speaking to the Albanian language paper Khoa Ditore on the direct involvement of the EU in the strategy of the ethnic Albanian government in Pristina in its attempt to finally take control over the Serbian communities in the north of the province which declared independence from Serbia in Feb. 2008.  This is the most deliberate attempt by, not only the Albanian govenment in Pristina, but also by Brussels in direct support, of removing Belgrade's control over the northern part of the province which is Serb majority.  But as Limdal attempted to explain the Brussels based EU police mission EULEX, "Has a mandate to support Kosovo's institutions in building a functional system of the rule of law on the entire territory, including northern Kosovo."

But the BBC reporter in northern Kosovska Mitrovica, Tanja Vujisic admitted, "Chances are slim that the strategy can be implemented in a smooth and peaceful manner."  Vujisic then referred to the "vehement" reaction by the Serb community when UNMIK (United Nations Mission in Kosvo) attempted to take over Serbian courts in the northern part of Kosovska Mitrovica in March 2008.  Therefore any attempt to remove Belgrade's control in northern Kosovo will meet with an even stronger reaction.  Obviously one that will lead to another war in the former Yugoslavia and Serbia has been rearmed by Russia since NATO's 78 day air campaign in 1999.  Belgrade has already begun a diplomatic assault lead by Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic who two days ago has stated the International Civilian Office (ICO), which has been working directly with Pristina on its strategy, as illegal.  And Serbia President Boris Tadic is in New York Friday to address this issue before the United Nations Security Council and outline the strategy to gradually remove Belgrade's authority.

Kosovo Deputy Prime Minister Hajredin Kuqi has revealed the steps Pristina is prepared to take in what he termed the "decentralization of Kosovo" by first declaring northern Mitrovica, which is largely Serbian, an "independent municipality" and no longer under the jurisdiction of Belgrade but of Pristina with support from Brussels.  This has been mentioned by the Serbian monthly magazine Glas Juga, reported by Tanjug/BBC and has been confirmed by EULEX.  Next would be Pristina/Brussels establishing control over the Serbian municipalities of Zvecan, Leposavic and Zubin Potok in the north of the province.  There would also be an increased presence of Kosovo police, establishment of courts and finally the complete takeover of the two administrative crossings from Kosovo into central Serbia.

rfn=Bucharest -  Here we have the scenario that will lead to the next wave of war in the former Yugoslavia and Belgrade continues to prepare for the worst.  B92 reports Serbia-Romania have just signed a defense cooperation agreement for 2010.  "Bilateral military cooperation is continuing being fostered and joint committees have contributed significantly to bilateral cooperation on defense."  That was the statement signed by the Chiefs of Serbia-Romania Ministry of Defense Military Cooperation Departments Milorad Peric of Serbia and Alexandru Cotoara-Nicolae of Romania.  In 2006 Belgrade also signed defense agreements with Athens-Teheran and in 2009 with Lisbon.

night watch:  rfn=ISLAMABAD -  "Only by pressuring all of the groups on both sides of the border will Afghanistan and Pakistan be able to rid themselves of this scourge for good."  WebIndia123/DPA report that was the policy statement from U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates speaking to the Pakistan paper The News as he arrived, apparently unannounced, in Islamabad Thursday with a 125 member delegation.  As if you can keep a 125 member delegation a secret.  Secretary Gates will meet (confront) Pakistan Defense Minister Ahmed Mukhtar, Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and Lieutenant-General Ahmad Shuja Pasha the Director of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).  The agency which created the Taliban out of refugees from Afghanistan during the Soviet invasion-occupation from 1979-89.  The Taliban leadership was instructed in religious schools, madrassas, on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border which has never been well defined and has now become one of the fronts used by Teheran/Islamabad to trap Washington. 

The CIA also provided initial support in the 1980s to use the war as another front in the Cold War and now some of those same leaders supported by Washington then are attacking NATO in Afghanistan.  Gates is accompanied by Pentagon Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael Mullen and CENTOM Commander General David Petreaus.  But there is little room for agreement on a combined-expanded military strategy against the Taliban as Swissinfo/Reuters report the Pakistan military spokesman Major-General Athar Abbas announced, "We are not in a position to get overstretched.  The answer cannot be in black and white."  General Abbas stated Islamabad refuses to lump the Afghan Taliban, the Pakistan Taliban and other insurgent units in the same category as does Washington and this is the center of what Gates admits is the "trust deficit."  The Dawn reports Abbas stated Pakistan will not be able to end its current military operations in the tribal area of South Waziristan, on the Afghanistan border, for at least another six months and maybe not for another year before it can begin operations elsewhere as Washington demands.

The Gates delegation arrived just one week after Islamabad chaired a Trilateral Foreign Ministers meeting with Teheran-Kabul on continued cooperation against NATO as Islamabad does not want to be seen as if it is controlled by Washington.  The officials confronting the U.S. delegation actually seem to be more concerned about the discussions Gates had earlier this week in Delhi as he offered India an entire line of military equipment including aircraft.  Islamabad has already used its support for Washington's war on terror to obtain more F-16s and other equipment useful in fighting India.  That is the front Islamabad is now preparing to expand by providing more cover fire for Islamic infiltration teams into Kashmir this month.  I suspect there will be a slight pause in the Kashmir/Border action during Gates two day visit.  Another issue between Washington/Islamabad is the constant harassment of U.S. officials in Pakistan and the denial of entry visas into the country in order to limit Washington's influence.

rfn=London -  "The Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi has been told to make it very clear to major sponsors of the international conference on Afghanistan, scheduled to be held in Dubai (on January 26) and London (28 January) that Pakistan would never accept India's major role in reconstruction and rehabilitation process in Afghanistan."  WebIndia123/The Nation report that was the statement released by Pakistan's Foreign Ministry on the eve of the London Conference on Afghanistan which is designed to outline the country's future at the end of hostilities.  Sources have already quoted Foreign Minister Qureshi as warning, "Pakistan's delegation would walk out at the London Conference in case something goes wrong with its interests in the region."  But London, the West and Russia want as many nations involved in Afghanistan's future as possible including Iran which may also attend the meeting.

Not even Teheran is against Delhi having a major role, Iran's government is only opposed to the foreign military presence.  But Islamabad has always seen Afghanistan as within its sphere of influence if not also an extension of Pakistan and another front in its war against India.  Islamabad has already conveyed the possibility of a walkout to the Gates delegation.

night watch:  rfn=JERUSALEM -  At the Knesset Tuesday meeting of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee in Jerusalem OC Military Intelligence Major-General Amos Yadlin made the following observations on Turkey-Syria-Iran Nuclear Weapons Program:  "In the past, Turkey had ambitions of being closer to the West, beyond its acceptance with NATO.  The wanted to be part of the European market, and they thought that relations with Israel would help them advance in the American market.  But then they received a cold shoulder from the Europeans and did not achieve what they wanted.  In light of that, they changed their policies and are currently drawing away from secularism and going in a more radical direction." 

Jerusalem Post/Hurriyet/Yedioth Ahronoth report concerning the Ankara/Jersusalem relationship General Yadlin observed, "There are still joint strategic interests shared by Turkey and Israel but it's not the same strategic proximity they once shared.  In the past Turkey acknowledged joint interests that strenghtened the relationship.  For example in the 1990s then Turkey regarded the Syrians as an enemy.  There was a joint enemy.  However, over the years, Turkey and Syria resolved their differences and Turkey doesn't need Israel's closeness anymore."

On Iran's nuclear weapons program Yadlin warned, "The Iranian technological clock on the way to the nuclear program is continuing to tick at a rate of a number of kilograms (of enriched uranium) every day."  And "continuing to advance the nuclear program on a wide track.  They are also advancing on the military track but that is being done secretly."  Yadlin touched on the reason for Turkey's strategic synchronization with Damascus-Teheran and it is not just due to being blocked from membership into the European Union though that is part of it.  I don't think Ankara ever approved of the military power projections most NATO members were making in the Balkans in the former Yugoslavia during NATO's wars against Serbia during the 1990s.  Ankara viewed it as an attempt to intimidate Turkey which increased Ankara's interest in the military potential of Islamic countries working together and that includes full support of Teheran's nuclear and strategic ambitions against the West.

rfn=Cairo -  INN reports Egyptian officials have made it known that Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal, based in Damascus, is no longer welcome in Cairo, persona non grata.  The government of Hosni Mubarak is finally no longer convinced Mashaal, who takes his orders from Teheran, is sincere about forming a Palestinian unity government.  The last one lasted two days in 2007 just before street fighting began between Hamas/Fatah in the Gaza Strip which was easily one by Hamas.  The Kuwait paper Al Jareeda is even saying Cairo has made its position clear to every Arab government.  This continues to increase Egypt's isolation from the political forces inflaming the Arab street and most established Arab society including in Egypt, forces directed by Teheran.

rfn=Rawalakot Sector -  Relations between South Asia enemies India/Pakistan continue to deteriorate as the Dawn reports at a flag meeting of military commanders from both countries, conducted at the Rawalakot sector Wednesday, Pakistan not only rejected India's accusastions of providing cover fire for infiltrating Islamic militants but Pakistan officials warned they would retaliate for what they claim is India's cross border firings.  This comes after two days of exchanges of fire between both countries.  Pakistan's military is pursuing the offensive Action Plan of General Pervez Musharraf which he presented to Teheran Feb. 2007 and it obviously centers on Pakistan Ranger units on the border providing cover fire for infiltration teams.  I assumed (f)allout war would begin by India using its hot pursuit policy after a series of attacks by Islamic militants as in the case of Mumbai November 2008, but this warning from Islamabad could mean instead full scale war could begin with Pakistan responding to what it claims is India's firing into Pakistan.

rfn=Kabul -  WebIndia123 has reported there has been a massive car bomb attack in Kabul at the front gate of the India Embassy.  At least 40 people have been killed as the bomb was set off at the height of the morning rush hour at 8:30 am as people were lined up along the wall applying for visas.  This is not the first attack directed at India's embassy as two senior diplomats were injured and  major damage was also done to the embassy.  Afghanistan has become another battleground between Pakistan/India.

night watch:  rfn=PERSIAN GULF -  "What is the reason underlying the deployment of this many warships and what aim are they pursuing...are they arrayed against Iran?  The Westerners know well that the existence of these warships serve as the best operational targets for Iran if they should want to undertake any military action against Iran."  Haaretz/Reuters report that was the operational warning from Iran Defense Mininster Brigadier-General Ahmad Vahidi speaking over the Fars news agency.  General Vahidi was addressing a conference in Teheran on the Persian Gulf and stated there were 90 warships from the West in the Gulf and that they created a "military environment" and would be some of the first targets when Iran retaliates against any attack.  The 90 ships include submarines, aircraft carriers and destroyers.  IRNA quoted Vahidi as saying, "The Americans have made conflicting comments (on the possibility of an attack on Iran). 

Those latest comments from the Pentagon came from U.S. General David Petraeus in command of U.S. forces in Afghanistan.  And NATO/Allied bases in Afghanistan will be another one of Iran's targets when the war become full scale along with Pentagon bases in Iraq.  Due to Teheran's entrenched position on its nuclear weapons program and because it now possesses ballistic missiles that can reach Western Europe and the U.S. East Coast, as a result of successful satellite tests, there is now more support among Allied governments for military action against Iran.

rfn=Jerusalem -  But according to Iran exile Mahmoud Karimi Hakak both Iran Surpreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad pray five times a day for an attack on Iran since it would unite the country.  YnetNews reports Hakak was speaking at Hebrew University in Jerusalem, "Khamenei and Ahmadinejad pray five times a day that Israel or the United States would attack its nuclear facilities.  It will be a mistake that would unify the public."  This should not be surprising as I have often written Iran's government thrives on crisis and does its best to maintain the crisis atmosphere not only in region but also in environs around them.  And it was a war which saved the government of Ayatollah Khoemeini which was indeed on the verge of collapse until Washington had Iraq invade Iran Sept. 1980 due to the hostage crisis at the U.S. Embassy in Teheran.  Khomeini called the invasion a "gift from Allah" as it re-united the country and caused the military to support Khomeini and to use Islamic radicalism as a weapon.

rfn=Rawalakot Sector -  India/Pakistan continue to exchange fire along their border in and just south of Kashmir as Swissinfo/Reuters report Islamabad is accusing India of killing a Pakistani soldier in cross border firing Monday in the Rawalakot sector of Pakistan's part of Kashmir.  But Indian Border Security Force (BSF) states it was Pakistan Rangers which fired first for more than a hour with rockets and machine gun fire covering for Islamic militants attempting to infiltrate.  This is the second day in a row for cross border firing as militants have attempted to cross into India almost every day this month.  Pakistan's actions are part of the Action Plan of General Pervez Musharraf which he presented to Teheran February 2007 and I suspect it is meant to force India to use its hot pursuit policy and attack the militant training bases inside Pakistan, bases which provided the training for the Mumbai assault in November 2008.

night watch:  rfn=PASHTUNISTAN SQUARE -  "In Monday's terrorist attacks and counter-insurgency operation, three civilians and two police were martyred.  Ten terrorists were killed.  Ten Afghan soldiers, 18 policemen and 35 civilians sustained injuries."  Xinhua reports that was the statement reased by Afghanistan's Defense Ministry as fighting died down after the largest Taliban attack ever in central Kabul as President Hamid Karzai was conducting a swearing in ceremony in the Presidential Palace.  France24/AFP report Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid called from an undisclosed location and announced, "Twenty of our suicide bombers have entered the area and fighting is ongoing."  The attack has been described as commando style and comes less than a week after the Trilateral meeting in Islamabad between the Foreign Ministers of Iran-Afghanistan-Pakistan on regional cooperation against the NATO presence in the country.  Perhaps that is why President Karzai was not that angry when he acknowledged the attacks that began just five hundred yards from his Presidential Palace as he was swearing in his new cabinet. 

And there is no way better to make a statement against that presence than to stage major attacks in the capital.  WebIndia123 reports the Afghan Voice Agency stated the first attack began at 9:45 am with a bomb attack near the Kabul Serena Hotel, which has been the center of at least two previous attacks in the past few years as NATO increased its military presence.  It is the city's only five star hotel and the base of visiting foreign dignitaries and network media.  There were other bomb attacks near the hotel which was again set on fire as a second bomb attack took place at the Malik Asghar intersection in Pashtunistan Square close to the government ministries of:  Foreign Affairs, Economy, Education and Kabul Municipal Ministry.  This is virtually identical to the kind of attacks Teheran has been able to stage in Baghdad since August the only exception being in Baghdad only suicide car and truck bombs were used but there have been similar breaches of security here in Kabul as the fighting was so close to government buildings.

There is now speculation the Taliban have infiltrated Afghan security units.  Al Jazeera Kabul producer Qais Azimy observed, "There are hundreds of Afghan army and police and intelligence officials present.  Civilians have completely left the area.  It is a big question mark how they got so close to the Presidential Palace."  According to Juan Cole, President of the Global Americana Institute, gunfire echoed across the city all day as the gunmen held the five storey Kabul City Center shopping mall and opened fire on nearby government buildings.  Then exhanged fire as Afghan National Army units arrived with the support of NATO helicopters.  There was then another suicide vehicle attack on another shopping center at Gulbahar and that may have been were a captured army ambulance was used.  David Chater, also with Al Jazeera, wondered at the breach of security and said there had been warnings the Taliban had recently hijacked six armoured vehicles and were planning attacks on the city.

rfn=Sialkot -  "Our soldiers strongly retaliated and forced them to stop firing.  We have decided to forcefully respond if they resort to firing again."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the announcement by Pakistan Rangers spokesman Nadeem Raza after another exchange of fire between India/Pakistan this year, this time near Sialkot just north of the Pakistan city of Lahore near the India border.  But according to Vinod Sharma, spokesman for India's Border Security Force (BSF), the firing began when, "A group of terrorists, attempting to infiltrate fired at the Border Security Force personnel, our troops fired in retaliation to stop the infiltration.  The exchange of fire continued for some time."  That is probably how this incident began and significantly India police have said this is the 11th infiltration attempt by Islamic militants from Pakistan to infiltrate in the past 16 days and this is not the only time Pakistan Rangers have provided cover fire. 

This is part of the offensive Action Plan by Pakistan General Pervez Musharraf which he presented to Teheran in Feb. 2007 and it is intended to force India to use its hot pursuit policy and attack the militant bases inside Pakistan.  It is quite possible these are the opening exchanges that will soon lead to the fourth war between the two since their combative independence in 1947 but this time it will not remain between India/Pakistan.  Not only is Iran prepared to enter but Beijing revived China's claim over the northeast India state of Arunachal Pradesh in 2006.  China invaded the area for one month in October 1962 during the dry season which runs through April.

rfn=Teheran -  "Iran has carried out a thorough study on its relations with Britain in different fields particularly over the past six months.  There are 10-12 working fields between Iran and the UK.  We are currently reviewing each one."  PressTV reports that was the warning from Iran Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki as the momentum for ending relations with Britain continues to increase within Iran's Majlis (Parliament).  This has been planned by Teheran, even before the June Presidential election, as Iran knew the West would eagerly support the massive demonstrations in support of moderate candidates which is why Iran's government declared them the loser in the elections.  And it was Foreign Minister Mottaki who announced, at a gathering of foreign diplomats right after the election, that droves of agents from Britain arrived before the election to cause the disturbances, interfering with Iran's internal polices.

The reason why Teheran is accusing London, even more than Jerusalem-Washington, is because Britain has long had a leading role in controlling events in the region for more than a century which is why Iran's government has at times referred to Britain as "the old fox."  And now Mohammad-Ali Abtahi, one of the authors of the bill circulating in the Majlis for the ending of relations, is even accusing British policies of causing the bomb attack last Tuesday that killed the Iranian nuclear scientist.  Ridiculous as the accusation is it receives a lot of support in the rumor driven crisis atmosphere Teheran is an expert at manipulating.  Teheran is using these latest disputes to justify full scale war against the West in order to end the West's military presence in the region, including in Afghanistan.  This is also Teheran's attempt to become the main voice in the world's energy markets.

rfn=Tbilisi -  Crucial to Iran's attempt is control over the oil-gas resources of the Caucasus between the Black and Caspian Sea.  And on Monday Teheran received more support for its nuclear weapons program as IRNA reports Georgia Foreign Minister Grigol Vashadze held a joint press conference with Iran Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki as the two expressed support for Iran's nuclear development under the guise of civilian uses.  Teheran established relations with the South Caucasus republic in 1992 in an attempt to gain a foothold in the energy rich area and to disrupt Russia's ability to export resources to the West.  That is the reason Teheran led the support for the Islamic groups in the North Caucasus which have been fighting Moscow since 1994 and in 2006 Teheran helped break Russia's hold over Georgia by sending gas supplies to Georgia after Russia suspended deliveries.

The following year industrial concerns in the West, led by Berlin the main purchaser of raw materials from the Caucasus, sent former U.S. Secretary of State Dr. Henry Kissinger to Moscow to co-chair the Strategic Working Group (SWG) with former Russia Premier Yevgeny Primakov.  This is the only regional theatre where the Allies are in a position to respond offensively.

night watch:  rfn=JERUSALEM -  A senior U.S. official has revealed Israel has threatened to attack Syria if Damascus supplies Hezbollah with the advanced SA2 anti-aircraft batteries.  Haaretz reports this was according to the Kuwait daily Al Rai and that Hezbollah members have already been trained in Syria in the use of the weapon system which would seriously threaten Israel's daily surveillance flights over Lebanon to monitor Hezbollah.  Israel would consider the sale the crossing of a red line and could not allow Hezbollah to deploy such a system in the field.  Pre-emptive attack is part of Israel's security doctrine as in the case of the attack on Syria's plutonium nuclear facility in September 2007.  The attack would force Teheran to enter the conflict in support of Damascus and would set off the expanded regional war Syria-Iran have been years in preparing not only against Israel but also against the Western military presence in the region from South Lebanon to the Persian Gulf.

rfn=Beirut -  Major leaders of the two organizations Syria-Iran have prepared met in Lebanon.  Ynet reports a senior Hamas delegation, led by Khaled Mashaal, Hamas' leader, met Hezbollah Secretary-General Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah where the two attacked what they referred to as "Arab incompetence in the face of the Israeli threats."  Al Manar television network reported a statement was released after the meeting, "The diplomatic activity aimed at resuming (peace) negotiations is based on conditions presented by Israel.  This underscores the futility of the official Arab stance in the face of the Israeli dangers and American pressure."  I suspect this statement is not only the real position of these two organizations and Damscus-Teheran, but also the position of every Arab government in the region with the exception of Cairo and President Hosni Mubarak.

No one takes the negotiation-peace process seriously anymore.  It was even reported last week Washington Special Envoy for the region Senator George Mitchell arrived with no proposal.  Khaled Mashaal was accompanied by his Deputy Moussa Abu Marzouk, Hamas representative for Lebanon Osama Hamdan and Mohammad Nasr.

rfn=Andimeshk -  The U. S. Geological Service has detected an earthquake in southwest Iran north of the city Dezful near Andimeshk just 30 miles from the Iraq border.  It occurred at 11:53 pm and WebIndia123/DPA  report it was estimated to be a magintude 4.1 and was eventually officially reported on the website of state television.  But it was probably not an earthquake but another underground nuclear test as in the case of the October 2008 when Iran announced an earthquake to disguise an underground test.  INN reported at the time Teheran had done this before.

rfn=Kuwait City -  Xinhua/KUNA report Kuwait Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed Sabeh al-Salem al-Sabah informed a local daily Sunday on his concerns the unabated violence in Iraq and near constant attacks could spill over into Kuwait.  In view of those concerns Kuwait has begun combined maneuvers with U.S. forces that will extend until January 26 and will involve both day/night drills.

rfn=East China Sea -  Swissinfo/Reuters/Kyodo are reporting Japan Foreign Mininster Katsuya Okada has warned China Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi that Japan is prepared to take certain counter-action if China proceeds with its development of the Chunxiao gas field in a disputed area of the East China Sea near Japan's territorial boundary.  This is not a new dispute as rival claims and conflicting development projects from both countries came close to an armed engagement in 2005 as Tokyo stated it was prepared to take "bold action".  Constant negotiations produced an agreement in 2008 on joint development but progress has been slow.  There were no specifics mentioned as to what the counter-action would be but I suspect it will begin with a withdrawal of some of Japan's substantial investments in economic projects in China, projects crucial for China's continued economic stability.

Chunxiao is conservatively estimated to have the gas equivalent of 92 million barrels of oil but is believed to have reserves that are much larger.

night watch:  rfn=BEIJING -  "China Vice-Foreign Minister He Yafei will not be able to attend because of scheduling issues, in the current circumstances, we hope that the relavant parties can continue seeking a diplomatic resolution and demonstrate flexibility."  PressTV reports that was the statement released by China's Foreign Ministry as Beijing continues to provide full support for Teheran's position opposed to the West-Russia concerning Iran's nuclear weapons production.  China is one of six countries that are leading the confrontation against Iran's nuclear production but Beijing was never a genuine supporter of serious economic sanctions, especially ones that would target Iran's energy sector.  The reason why Beijing only pays lip service to supporting the Security Council is because China's Central Government has always realized the potential of Iran's foreign policy to weaken three of China's rivals, the West-India-Russia.  Teheran, for instance, is an active supporter of the Action Plan of Pakistan General Pervez Musharraf and Beijing has been the most important supporter of Iran's nuclear industry ever since Teheran revived it in 1984.

In exchange for Beijing's crucial strategic support Teheran has guaranteed China massive oil exports even at the expense of Japan.  This has been the basic arrangement between Teheran-Beijing for 25 years.  Advanced weapons technology from China to Iran and oil from Iran to China.

rfn=New York -  This global arrangement seems to be a mystery to diplomats from the West as Swissinfo/Reuters report Western diplomats at the UN cannot fathom Beijing's reasons for refusing to support economic sanctions.  And that is probably because at most UN meetings diplomats from China say all the right things publicly when meeting the West and in front of cameras and microphones, but privately, off camera, decide in Teheran's favor.  Consequently U.S. State Department spokesman P. J. Crowley had to reluctantly announce to reporters Friday, "I wouldn't expect a particular deliverable out of this meeting."  A diplomat admitted, "We're expecting a political expert from the Chinese mission who won't have any decision making authority."  I would not be surprised if the "political expert" is actually an intelligence expert sent to take notes on the discussions between senior Political Directors and Foreign Ministry officials from Russia-UK-France-Germany-US then send the notes to Iran's UN Mission and from there to Teheran.

A diplomat admitted, "There's not much point in having the meeting in light of the Chinese representation, but we're going to have it.  We need to send a message to Iran that we're not dropping this issue."  The only message they are sending is that no serious economic sanctions will ever be approved and the event initiatve remains with Teheran.

night watch:  rfn=DELHI -  "The infrastructure across the LC (Line of Control) is concerned on the other side (Pakistan) is very much intact and there are all out efforts being made from the other side to push as many infitrators as possible."  Dawn reports those were some of the warnings and remarks by Chief of India Army General Deepak Kapoor speaking to media on the eve of India's Army Day celebrations.  General Kapoor stated there are 700 trained Islamic militants waiting to cross the LC and this comes as attacks in Jammu-Kashmir continue.  WebIndia123 reports there have been seven attacks since the beginning of the year with the latest having taken place in Sopore, Baramulla district 30 miles (50 km) north of Srinagar.  A police station was attacked twice in the same hour, first with grenades then a half hour gunbattle after police arrived.  One police officer and a civilian were killed as eight others were wounded.  AFP reports a search operation is now being conducted.

Concerning the border disputes with China the General responded, "As far as the number of troops are concerned the attitude of the Chinese and our attitude is alright and there are regular border personnel meetings and there is no other area as I told earlier that Indian territories have shrunk.  That is a wrong thing.  Where there are any differences we have a mechanism and between India and China there is border peace and tranquillity agreement signed in 1993.  According to which it is laid down that whenever there is problem that we can discuss it between each other on the hotline or after calling a border personnel meeting, a clarification be sought."  India media reports mentioned India had lost large tracts of land due to Chinese incursions across what is called the the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Ladakh region of Kashmir which borders China.

WebIndia123 reports the General Officer Command in Chief Northern Command (GOC-in-C) Lieutenant General B. S. Jawal also had observations on the combined threat from Pakistan-China, "I can only say that as far as terrorist camps and infrastructure is concerned that is intact and it's a continuous endeavor of the part of Pakistan to infiltrate.  But what is more important or the operative line in this is that we are geared to meet any infiltration attempt, which takes place.  We are fully poised for it."  General Jaswal added 2010 will be a crucial year for security forces because Pakistan is not happy with the current situation in Jammu-Kashmir that had shown indications of returning to a peaceful atmosphere late last year.

"That is the reason I expect there will be some additional attacks, the kind that took place in Lal Chowk.  Maybe there will be fidayeen attacks also, there is possibility.  As I said, this will be the endeavor of Pakistan to push more and more infiltrators as well to scuttle the normalcy which is fast prevailing in J and K."  The fidayeen are Islamic suicide units which hit Lal Chowk earlier this month, the same kind of unit that attacked Mumbai in late November 2008.  Lal Chowk is located in central Srinagar and it would take a series of attacks like that to force Delhi to use its hot pursuit policy and attack the training bases inside Pakistan which would set off the fourth war between the two since their combative independence in 1947.  Infiltration and fidayeen attacks are part of the Action Plan of Pakistan General Pervez Musharraf which he presented to Teheran Feb. 2007.

Concerning the threat from China, General  Jaswal responded, "I would like to tell you, and as our Chief has said, there is not an inch of tampering on the demarcated line.  There is some overlap in some areas which we call the boundary question.  They (Chinese) patrol on their boudary, which they claim and we call it transgression.  And we do patrolling on the boundary line in their area, which they call transgression."  This is the Ladakh area of Kashmir which China also invaded for one month in Oct. 1962 though the main thrust of Beijing's invasion was in India's northeast state of Arunachal Pradesh more than a thousand miles to the east.  Beijing revived its claim over Arunachal Pradesh in 2006 and this is one of the reasons China's Central Government has been the main supporter of Iran-Pakistan's nuclear/ballistic missile weapon systems.

Recently General Kapoor set off quite a controversy when he announced India was ready for war with Pakistan-China simultaneously.  It is standard deceptive diplomatic operating procedure to sign border/security agreements while military preparations are made for the next war.

night watch:  rfn=ANKARA -  "Unrest in the Middle East is the unrest of the world."  Haaretz reports that was one of the statements from Turkey Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan during his Monday meeting with Lebanon Prime Minister Saad Hariri in Ankara.  The London based Arab daily, Asharq al-Awsat reported during the meeting, Erdogan warned Hariri that Israel is planning to invade his country due to the repeated violations of Lebanon's airspace.  Israel maintains daily surveillance flights over Lebaon to monitor Hezbollah an extension of Iran's military that is also supported by Ankara.  It is almost as if Hariri was speaking to an official of Iran's government since Erdogan has been leading Turkey into supporting Iran's regional-international agenda and part of that agenda is to blame everything on Israel.  Erdogan stated the unrest is caused by Israel which will spread internationally.  Both leaders are aware an expanded regional war is near and they are coordinating their accusations.

rfn=Allenby Bridge -  This report has just come in, a two car convoy of Israeli diplomats was almost hit by a bomb explosion in Jordan as it was headed toward Amman.  Jerusalem Post/Reuters report the bomb exploded twelve miles (20 km) from the Allenby Bridge which connects Jordan to the West Bank.  Israel's Channel Two reported no one was injured and the convoy entered a Jordanian army base after the attack and a search was conducted of the area.  PressTV reports the explosion took place at 5 pm with one of the cars lightly damaged.  The attack is obviously Teheran's doing in order to increase the crisis atmosphere in the region by setting the stage for heavier fighting.

rfn=Gaza -  INN is reporting that according to a Fatah website Al-Ahad, Hamas has angered Palestinian residents in Gaza by placing large explosive traps in densely populated areas of the territory.  Hamas is desperately making last minute preparations for the next round of fighting exactly one year after Israel's highly successful Operation Cast Lead.  Damascus-Teheran have provided Palestinian militants with rockets that can now reach Tel Aviv, 35 miles to the north, and with more effective anti-tank rockets.  Though Iran will direct some of Israel's attention toward Gaza most Palestinian militants will again be directed to attack the Rafah Terminal on the Gaza/Egypt border as they did two years ago.  That will force the government of President Hosni Mubarak into the war and limit the chances of Egypt, Israel and the West conducting joint operations against Iran-Syria.

rfn=Najaf -  At the same time Teheran is continuing its bomb offensive in Iraq as PressTV reports 15 people have been killed and eighty wounded after a series of three explosions in the Shia religious center Najaf 95 miles south of Baghdad.  Iran began this latest bomb offensive in August by mainly targeting Iraq government buildings in and near the International Green Zone.

rfn=Janadiriyah -  For a briefing on these latest regional developments the House of Saud summoned Syria President Bashar al-Assad to Riyadh.  France24/AFP/SPA report President Assad arrived Wednesday and was received by King Abdullah at Riyadh airport and the two then met at the monarch's desert residence Janadiriyah near the capital.  Riyadh is aware Damascus has long been Teheran's closest military partner and that both Syria-Iran are prepared to enter the war, not only against Israel, but will also support attacks against the Western military presence from South Lebanon to the Persian Gulf.  Heavier fighting will also be used to support the Egyptian opposition to Mubarak.  This is not quite an emergency meeting but nearly and it indicates how close heavier fighting is.  It is even quite possible Assad may not survive.

night watch:  rfn=TEHERAN -  "An American based monarchy group...claimed responsibility for the terrorist act.  Maybe the CIA and the Zionist regime thought they can mislead us with such an absurd statement.  We had clear information several days ago that the intelligence apparatus of the Zionist regime and the CIA wanted to implement terrorist acts in Teheran."  Haaretz/Fars news agency report that was the policy statement by Iran Majlis (Parliament) Speaker Ali Larijani, over the state broadcaster, officially accusing the CIA and Israel of assassinating nuclear scientist Dr. Massoud Ali-Mohammadi.  In reality Teheran had him killed because he supported the opposition to the government and was probably considering defection.  But Iran's religious-military government has deliberately used the political protests to justify full scale war againt the West which it accues of interfering with Iran's internal affairs by supporting the opposition.

Since the mid-1990s Teheran has been fully aware the moderate position has been by far the most popular, especially with the young, due to the election victories of Mohmmad Khatami in 1997 and 2001.  And that is why Teheran declared the reform candidates in the June election to be the loser knowing it would result in massive demonstrations which governments in the West would welcome.  Since then Teheran has blamed the demonstrations on the West and now this assassination as Teheran continues to create reasons for (f)allout war.

rfn=Ankara -  The governments of Russia-Turkey have used the occasion of Turkey Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's two day visit to Moscow to sign an agreement on the construction of Turkey's first nuclear power plant.  Hurriyet reports the agreement was signed by Russia Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin and Turkey Energy Minister Taner Yildiz.  Prime Minister Erdogan met with Russia President Dmitry Medvedev at the President's private residence outside Moscow and Medvedev stated, "The Russia-Turkish relationship is improving.  It is a strategic partnership."  That statement is no exaggeration as Ankara constantly reveals it has left the orbit of the West and the Brussels led NATO alliance as Moscow fills the vacuum the West has been leaving by constantly rejecting Turkey's membership into the European Union since 1959.

Of course in 1959 Moscow was in no position to incorporate Turkey into its sphere of influence since it was still rebuilding from the devastation of World War II and was preparing to confront Beijing and its planned invasion in the Soviet Far East.  An invastion which was prevented by serious border fighting from 1964-89, fighting which took place on a regimental scale.  And though Moscow apparently withdrew from Central Asia after the Cold War ended in 1990 it retained a very real foothold in the Caucasus and continued to increase its economic cooperation with Turkey to the extent Ankara is almost fully dependent on Moscow economically.  That always implies complete agreement on the most important international-regional issues and a small example was made in August 2008 as Ankara fully supported Moscow's war against the Georgia government in Tbilisi.

Tbilisi is supported by Teheran, an attempt by Iran to disrupt Russia's ability to export energy resources to the West, and even though Turkey has excellent relations with Iran, Teheran will never have the economic-decision making influence of Moscow.  RIA reports agreements to be signed Thursday between Erdogan and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Medvedev actually reflect a multifaceted privileged partnership.  Moscow-Ankara are speaking with the same voice and will do so when fighting takes place again in the former Yugoslavia this year.  Russia ended its strategic cooperation with NATO in the Balkans after NATO's 98 day air campaign in 1999 and Ankara never supported the Brussels alliance's militaristic policies directed at Turkey through Yugoslavia.  Putin-Erdogan will make the new partnership more widely known during their joint press conference in Moscow Thursday.

night watch:  rfn=QEYTARIYEH -  "The intelligence systems of the country are investigating the hidden dimensions of the incident and are tracing the Zionist agents involved with terror attacks."  Xinhua reports that was the dismissive statement relased by Iran's government through the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) after the assassination of Dr. Massoud Ali-Mohammadi as he was entering his car in the wealthy northern Teheran neighborhood of Qeytariyeh.  The announcement said Dr. Ali-Mohammadi was "a committed and revolutionary Teheran University professor" killed by "a terrorist act by counter-revolutionaries and arrogant powers elements."  "Arrogant powers" is Iran's government way of saying the West and its prominence in regional affairs but this time Teheran is singling out the "U.S. and Zionists agents."  The Dawn and the Iranian news agency Borna have reported the victim was a "senior nuclear scientist of the contry."  Jerusalem Post/AP reported he had received the first doctorate in nuclear physics from Iran's Sharif University of Technology in 1992.

But this nuclear physicist had appeared on an opposition website before the June election in which he was described as one of 240 professors at Teheran University in support of the opposition.  And the last thing Iran's government wants is another defection as in the case of Shahram Amiri, a nuclear researcher at Teheran's Amalek Ashtar University, who defected in Saudi Arabia in June.  There was also the defection of a former Deputy Defense Minister, one of Iran's missile experts, who defected in Feb. 2008 in Turkey and from there to Germany.  The defections are due to serious concerns over the offensive-nuclear-ballistic nature of Iran's foreign policy as these scientists and officials realize Iran's religious-military leadership have always intended to take the policies of the Ayatollah Khomeini to their fullest extent and prepare for full scale war with the West.  That was the reason for the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran, led by Khomeini, and it was sealed when Washington had Iraq invade Iran in September 1980 due to the hostage crisis at the U.S. embassy in Teheran.

A crisis which united most of Iran's religious-military leadership behind the revolution and its international objectives the removal of the West's influence from the affairs in the region.  The unity of course is by no means perfect and events have come to a head last year and now not only due to the election but as the government has completed its military preparations for full scale war, a government which celebrates martyrdom, even the martyrdom of the entire population as a national Shi'ite blood ritual.  They were never about anything else and intend to take a lot of the West with them.  In the meantime Al Jazeera/Fars news agency report Teheran Prosecutor Abbas Jafari Dolatabadi released this official explanation, "Massoud Ali-Mohammadi was a professor in the nuclear field and there have been no arrests of those behind this incident."  Of course not since he will not be ordered to arrest the government.  Dolatabadi however may find some "agents of arrogance" among some of the ethnic opposition groups in Iran like the Kurds or in Baluchistan.

The fifty year old professor was killed getting into his car at 7:30 am by a powerful bomb attached to a motorcycle which was set off by remote control.  Iran's Supreme Leader had recently warned the opposition that serious measures were about to be taken against them and on Thursday the car of opposition leader and Presidential candidate cleric Mahdi Karroubi was sprayed with bullets in Qazvin a city east of the capital.  In the meantime, ahead of the national bloodbath, some of the relatives of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei have been secreted out of the country to a private estate outside Moscow.

night watch:  rfn=DAMASCUS -  Syria President Bashar al-Assad received Iran Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki in Damascus Monday.  IRNA reports the discusssions were on increased regional cooperation against what President Assad referred to as plots of Western countries to increase their military presence in the region.  In order to combat this Damascus-Teheran have led the region in military cooperation against what former Iran President Mohammad Khatami stated in 2004 were "pressures" caused by Israel and the West.  The situation in Gaza has intensified in the past week and not only between Palestinian militants and Israel but also between Palestinians and Egyptian security at the Rafah Terminal.  It is one year after Israel's Operation Cast Lead offensive and Palestinian militant units have been re-armed by Syria-Iran and it was two years ago Teheran had Hamas force open the Rafah Terminal with fifteen explosions.  Another such incident will set off war between Egypt/Gaza and it is a war the Syria-Iran Axis intends to use to remove Egypt President Hosni Mubarak by supporting the Egyptian opposition led by Minister of Intelligence General Omar Suleiman.

Syria President Assad also called for the removal of "obstacles" in cooperation between Damascus-Baghdad and obstacles can only mean the U.S. troops still based in Iraq.  Syria has long been one of the main avenues for Islamic fighters entering Iraq so I suspect that will increase since an eruption of heavy fighting would reduce the chances of any joint operation against Iran by Israel-U.S.  Heavy fighting around the region would keep the West on the defensive which is why Foreign Minister Mottaki stated the prospects for peace in:  Afghanistan, Iraq, Palestine and Yemen are "very dark."  In a parallel development PressTV/AFP are reporting the Lebanon Army again fired anti-aircraft weapons at four Israeli surveillance aircraft over south Lebanon.  The presence of Hezbollah, with its 40,000 rockets, and the entry of Syria-Iran into the war will force Israel to be mainly occupied with its northern front.  And that will also trap the 13,000 European troops in south Lebanon into quite a crossfire.

rfn=Belgrade -  "The topic of the meeting will be stabilizing the situation in Bosnia-Herzegovina and the region, which calls for a continued process and work on that goal.  It is also necessary to involve Croatia in the solving of these questions."  B92 reports that was the announcement by Serbia Labor Minister Rasim Ljajic speaking to the Belgrade daily Danas on the results of his visit to Ankara during the Christmas holiday.  There he met Turkey Foreign Minister Professor Ahmet Davutoglu author of the book "Strategic Depth" which advocates Turkey having influence in every region around Turkey instituting "order" including the Balkans.  While in Ankara it was decided to conduct a Trilateral meeting in Belgrade January 15 between the Foreign Ministers of Turkey-Serbia-Bosnia with the latter on the verge of falling apart due to the disputes among the leaders of the Croatian/Serbian/Bosnian communities.

Bosnia-Herezgovina is as much of a flashpoint as Kosovo and it is quite possible the three Foreign Ministers will plan how to control the conflict and use it to their advantage as opposed to the Brussels led NATO alliance.  Though Ankara is a NATO member it is instead mapping out its own regional military agenda which is very much opposed to military cooperation with Brussels.

rfn=Poonch -  "There was an unprovoked firing from across the border in Poonch area, we lost one BSF (Border Security Force) jawan (soldier)."  Dawn reports that was the announcement by Vinod Sharma spokesman for India's BSF forces in Kashmir after the latest crossborder firing by Pakistan.  This latest attack occurred Monday, the first one in six months, while during the last week seven Islamic militants were killed in Kashmir during several infiltration attempts that were intercepted by Indian troops.  South Asia experts and analysts expect violence to continue to increase since during the past few months hundreds of Islamic militants, based in Pakistan, may have already infiltrated into India's part of Kashmir.  This may be designed to force Delhi to use its hot pursuit policy and attack the training bases for these groups in Pakistan.

Former India envoy to Washington Naresh Chandra warned, "It is a desperate attempt by Pakistan to create trouble in Kashmir as India is cutting troops and the general feeling is the situation is getting more and more normal in Kashmir."  Last week Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari announced freeing Kashmir from India's control was Pakistan's responsibility, a virtual declaration of war.  And in order to maintain the near war atmosphere Pakistan instituted the Islamic uprising in November 1989 which came close to causing full scale war in January 1990.  But this is not a conflict that is confined between Islamabad/Delhi any more.  In February 2007 Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf presented Teheran his Action Plan and in 2006 Beijing revived its claim over the northeast India state of Arunachal Pradesh which China invaded for one month during Oct. 1962 at the start of the dry season.  The dry season runs through April.

night watch:  rfn=JERUSALEM -  "We are before another round in Gaza.  I am very skeptical about the possibility that Hamas will suddenly surrender or change its ways without being hit much more seriously than it was during Cast Lead."  That was the warning from former Israel Defense Force (IDF) OC Southern Command Major-General Yom Tov Samia speaking in an interview with Army Radio Sunday.  Jerusalem Post reports General Samia continued by suggesting the IDF conduct this time "a more focused strike with long-lasting results by occupying parts of Gaza.  We must create a situation in which Hamas runs out of oxygen."  Jerusalem was under no illusion permanent peace was established in Gaza after the highly successful Operation Cast Lead a year ago even though it did create a calm that lasted for a year. 

But during that time Palestinians militants have been resupplied including with rockets that could reach Tel Aviv 35 miles away and more effective anti-tank rockets.  Hamas will also be directed by Teheran to again attack the Rafah Terminal as in January 2008 since Iran-Syria now seem to be ready for the full scale expanded regional war they have been years in planning to overthrow Egypt President Hosni Mubarak and end the West's military presence in the entire region and the flashpoint for that war is still Gaza.  And though it begins in Gaza it will not end there as Hezbollah-Damascus-Teheran enter the war as Iran re-activates the militia units in Iraq.  Teheran wants to prevent any possible combined Allied operation against them and can only do so if heavy fighting erupts all over the region.

rfn=Gaza -  That expanded regional war may have begun last week as INN reports Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated at today's Sunday Cabinet meeting, "Twenty rockets and mortar shells were fired from Gaza last week...The IDF responded immediately, attacking rocket manufacturing facilities and tunnels through which Iran smuggles rockets to Gaza.  Our policy is clear:  Every missile or other attack will be met with a strong response."  Last week rockets landed near Ashkelon, 10 miles north of Gaza and the site of one of Israel's largest oil terminals.  Other rockets landed near the town of Netivot seven miles to the west of the Strip.

rfn=Islamabad -  One of the areas Teheran will increase fighting, to disrupt Allied cooperation, will be Afghanistan where NATO has bases of interest that will be targeted by the rockets-missiles Iran has in its arsenal.  They were tested last September and to prepare the arena for Iran's direct entry into the war Teheran has been conducting, for more than a year, Trilateral Foreign Ministers meetings with Pakistan-Afghanistan.  IRNA reports the one next week will be held in Islamabad and will be attended by Iran Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki who will also confer with Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani.

night watch:  rfn=TRIPOLI -  Libya Ambassador in Teheran, Saad Mujber, conducted a series of discussions on Saturday with Iran Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki.  IRNA reports the basis of the meeting was to expand relations in every area including economic cooperation.  But significantly it was also announced the two officials discussed expanding their "regional and international cooperation" which always means planning the roles and responses of their governments when certain events take place against a mutual enemy, events caused by Teheran.  And in this case it means the government of Egypt President Hosni Mubarak which is completely surrounded by hostile governments opposed to his close relations with the West and his refusal to take any meaningful measures in support of Palestinian people.  President Mubarak's refusal to open the Rafah Terminal on the Gaza/Egypt border is seen as supporting Israel's blockade and Egypt's war record against Israel in the 1950s-60s and early 1970s is not impressive any more, that was nearly forty years ago.

Back then Egypt was ruled by a government which lead the Arab-Islamic agenda against Israel and reduced cooperation with the West but that means support for Islamic radicals in and outside Egypt which Mubarak hates.  Radicals assassinated his predecessor Anwar al-Sadat in 1981 when Sadat attempted to lead Egypt away from its anti-West policies a move governments from North Africa to Pakistan see as a betrayal of Muslim people.  But both Tripoli-Teheran are aware an expanded regional war is coming and though it will begin against Israel it will end with massive fighting inside Egypt between supporters of the opposition and supporters of Mubarak.  Mubarak will not go down quietly since he is a former head of the Air Force and still may retain some support there, support he will use to declare war on Iran.  But I believe most of the military, led by Intelligence Minister General Omar Suleiman, will support the opposition and that General Suleiman will replace Mubarak.

This Libya-Iran meeting is taking place just one week after Iran Majlis (Parliament) Speaker Ali Larjani confronted President Mubarak in Cairo on these regional issues.

rfn=Amritsar -  "Inputs are that, this is a failed infiltration attempt.  As you know terrorists are trying their best to infiltrate in our area...And from the Pakistan side they cut the wire but could not cross the fence."  WebIndia123 reports that was the account from Major-General Surinder Nag GOC Tiger Division speaking in Jammu on an infilitration attempt by Islamic militants across the International Border between Pakistan/India in the northern Punjab.  It is estimated 600 rounds were fired by Pakistan Rangers in support of the attempt that took place in the Pargawal sector of Akhnoor at the Sidhravan border out post (BoP) 4:30 am Saturday morning.  A search is now underway as police and Village Defense Committees (VDC) in the Ramgarh sector have been placed on alert.

Dawn/AFP are also reporting India is accusing Pakistan of firing four rockets into Punjab, two of which exploded in farming areas as two failed to detonate.  This comes less than a week after Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari announced ending India's control over Kashmir is Pakistan's responsibility.  The two countries came close to their fourth war in January 1990 just two months after Islamabad began the Islamic uprising in Kashmir.

night watch:  rfn=GAZA CITY -  Israeli officials informed Xinhua the first air attack was around midnight and hit a building "used to fire rockets from" as the Israel Air Force (IAF) hit several targets across the Gaza Strip Friday in response to rocket/mortar fire from Palestinian militants.  Earlier Thursday the IAF dropped more than a half million leaflets warning residents. The locations hit were areas where rockets are either produced, stored or fired from as fires erupted after a warehouse was hit in Gaza City.  Haaretz reports there have so far been only four airstrikes but IDF spokesman Avichai Adraee warned the attacks will continue as long as Palestinians fire from Gaza and Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made it his policy to respond more quickly and forcefully than his predecessor.  Another site hit was a training area used by Hamas in central Gaza, and a tunnel in the same area meant for infilitration into Israel along with two smuggling tunnels near the Rafah Terminal on the Gaza/Egypt border.  Reports indicate some Palestinians have been trapped underground.

This could be the beginning of the expanded regional war Teheran-Damascus have been years in planning, an extension of the 2006 fighting, which also began first in Gaza then two weeks later Teheran ordered Hezbollah to launch an ambush from across the Lebanon border.  Hezbollah now possesses 40,000 rockets and has been trained in anti-aircraft systems to disrupt IAF surveillance flights.  Palestinian militants have been resupplied since Israel's Operation Cast Lead a year ago and have already been engaging Egyptian security at the Rafah Terminal.

rfn=Teheran -   Sources within Iran's government have informed the Iranian Students Solidarity organization that members of the Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's family have been secretly flown to Russia in a private plane.  INN reports arrangements were apparently made through a special emissary representing Khamenei which met Russian officials including President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.  Putin's wife then offered Khamenei's relatives the use of a private estate outside Moscow to "accomodate them for as long as it is necessary."  Supposedly this is for their protection due to the political unrest in the country but I suspect the real reason is because Teheran is now ready for full scale war with the West.  A war which will also involve Russia's response to Iran's attempt to control the resources of the Caucasus by continuing to support Islamic groups in the north and Georgia's government in the south.

rfn=Pompore -  Even before this week's 22 hour siege by Islamic militants at Lal Chowk in Srinagar's commercial district, the Dawn reports India's intelligence services had been warning about a new increase in attacks across Kashmir.  And now, on Friday, an Indian patrol was fired on by Islamic militants in Pompore town 7 miles (12 km) south of Srinagar.  This sudden eruption of attacks is the worst in two years and comes right after Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari announced freeing Kashmir from India's control is Pakistan's responsibility.  It is that obsession with Kashmir which has prevented Pakistan from coming apart due to internal disputes and not just recently, but ever since independence in 1947.

night watch:  rfn=CAIRO -  "For those who hurled insults at Egypt on the other side of the border with the Palestinian territory time will come for them to be repaid by their own people."  Xinhua reports that was the warning from Egypt Foreign Ministry spokesman Hossam Zaki after Wednesday's confrontation at the Rafah Terminal on the Gaza/Egypt border between Egyptian police and Palestinian militants and demonstrators.  Zaki added, "Egypt's patience has its limit and that every ability to provoke Egyptian security will have its dire consequences."  This is not just a warning to Hamas and its supporters in Gaza but also to governments Syria-Iran the two main supporters of Hamas and Islamic radicalism whose main regional enemy is not Israel but the administration of Egypt President Hosni Mubarak due to his close relations with the West and his hatred of the political forces that assassinated his predecessor Anwar al-Sadat in 1981. 

rfn=Gaza -  In January 2008 Teheran had Hamas force open the terminal with fifteen explosions and this latest violence revolved around an aid convoy of nearly 200 vehicles led by George Galloway a loose cannon British MP clearly fond of attracting attention to himself.  Teheran finds such political circus performers useful in maintaining an atmosphere of crisis as Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhoum stated in Gaza the Egyptian police attack on the convoy Tuesday night "is an attack on more than 40 Arab, Islamic and European countries represented by the convoy."  But in a pretense of an attempt to improve relations Xinhua reports senior Hamas member Mahmoud Zahar announced, "Hamas is fully interested in ending the crisis with Egypt and desirous of keeping good relations with the country.  There is strong tension, but we are trying hard to calm the situation down through contacts between Hamas and Egypt."

But under no circumstances will President Mubarak come to any agreement with forces of Islamic extremism which are supported by and connected to Egypt's large religious-secular opposition to Mubarak.  This is Teheran's timing and I suspect Iran will not only maintain the tension but increase it after its naval maneuvers are over late this month.

rfn=Gaza -  "The terror elements are a regular target for the Israel Defense Forces and they continue to operate nearby in order to take shelter among you.  The digging of tunnels from inside and nearby your homes and the supply of weapons endanger your lives and property.  Don't sit idly in light of your abuse by those terroristic elements, because they will not stand by you when your property is damaged.  Take responsibility for your future."  YnetNews reports that was the message on some of the thousands of leaflets the Israel Air Force (IAF) dropped over north-south Gaza.  Another leaflet contained a map which warned residents not to come closer than 300 meters from the border fence. 

On the same day Palestinian militants conducted a mortar barrage that began at 7:45 am.  At least ten shells fell in open areas of the Western Negev and near the Kerem Shalom crossing which has since been closed.  Haaretz/Ma'an news agency report the Palestinian Resistance Committees (PRC) claimed reponsibility for the mortar fire.  This comes as IDF GOC Southern Command, Major-General Yoav Galant visited communities in the Negev and warned them to prepare for a new round of fighting.  Gaza is still the flashpoint Teheran prepares to use to set off the expanded regional war including fighting on the Gaza/Egypt border.  Iran intends for fighting to erupt around the region simultaneously to prevent any joint Allied cooperation against them.

night watch:  rfn=RAFAH -  "We have been able to confirm that one Egyptian soldier has been killed as a result of Palestinian fire in the direction of the Egyptian border.  There is no doubt that we heard gunfire on the Palestinian side as well as on the Egypt side."  Al Jazeera reports that was its correspondent Ayman Mohyeldin from Gaza after the firefight between Hamas and Egyptian police on opposite sides of the Rafah Terminal on the eight mile Gaza/Egypt border.  One Egyptian solider in an observation tower was killed by a Palestinian sniper and 35 Palestinians have been wounded in the violence.  Mohyeldin continued, "Senior officials from the Palestinian security forces have arrived at the border, they have calmed the situation down.  They were able to push back the thousand or so protestors and rock-throwers who had gathered there.  About an hour ago a rally that had been organized by Hamas to criticize Egypt's denial to allow the Viva Palestina convoy to make its way into Gaza with much needed aid was held here.  Shortly after that concluded, Palestinians started throwing rocks at the Egyptian security personnel on the other side of the border and we heard an exchange of gunfire."

This comes just one day after the melee in El-Arish Tuesday night between the international aid convoy, Viva Palestina, Haaretz reports that is led by British loose cannon MP George Galloway with the support of a delegation of government Ministers in Turkey's Parliament which could not convince Cairo to permit all of the aid convoy into Gaza.  The convoy left Britain nearly a month ago.  The confrontation began after negotiations between the Egyptian government and the activists broke down and the convoy was attacked by Egyptian police resulting in 50 activists wounded.  Mohamed Abdellah, an official with the ruling National Democratic Party in Egypt warned angrily, "Egypt cannot be slapped around by everybody.  It is true we have a historical responsibility (towards the Palestinians) which we can never abandon.  However if anybody believes that Egypt's arm can be twisted we say to him you are mistaken; you are mistaken, you are mistaken."

Most observers believe Hamas staged a rally that got out of their control which could be an example of the level of hatred between the Egyptian government and the Palestinian people.  But according to INN Palestinians have long specialized in aggressive demonstrations specifically designed to provoke the police into firing.  And for more than a week there have been exchanges of fire between Palestinians and Egyptian security caused by Egypt constructing a new steel wall meant to cut off the smuggling between the Sinai peninsula and Gaza, what Hamas is now referring to as a "Wall of Death."  These new demonstrations also come right after Iran Parliament (Majlis) Speaker Ali Larijani met in Cairo with Egypt President Hosni Mubarak.  It was in January 2008 Teheran ordered Hamas to force open the terminal with fifteen explosions.  Early last year Mubarak warned both Hezbollah-Teheran to "beware the wrath of Egypt."

rfn=Damascus -  Syrian sources have informed the Qatar newspaper Al Watan they are concerned about the Israeli "deployment and maneuvers along the northern border" with Lebanon-Syria.  Jerusalem Post reports the Syrian sources informed the Qatar paper officials from the U.S. have warned Beirut if Lebanon does not disarm Hezbollah then Israel will launch an invasion in May all the way to Beirut.  And that is supposed to be a message to both Syria and Lebanon.  Hezbollah is not only a threat to Israel but also to the 13,000 European troops stationed in south Lebanon.  The Syrian officials then said if that happens Damascus will enter the war in support of Hezbollah which has long been the intention and purpose of the security agreements between Damascus-Teheran. 

Iran has developed a brigade size Rapid Deployment Force (RDF) which it will commit against Israel in the name of supporting Palestinian people.  But it is quite possible Teheran will not wait for Israel to begin the expanded regional war since that could take away the initiative from Iran.  The military aggreements between Damascus-Teheran are designed to end the West's military presence in the entire region.

rfn=Strait of Hormuz -  "The drill is aimed at enhancing Iran's military and defense preparedness through relying on the valuable experiences gained during previous maneuvers in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz."  Xinhua/Fars news agency report that was the announcement by the head of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy, Rear Admiral Morteza Safari.  No specific date was given for the "Great Sea" maneuvers designed to test new tactics and weapons but it has been mentioned they are to take place later this month.

rfn=Srinagar -  "One or two militants are believed to be hiding in a hotel in Lal Chowk and they are lobbing grenades and firing intermittently."  Dawn reports that was the statement from an Indian officer with the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) in Srinagar, Kashmir on the ongoing action in the city's commercial center Lal Chowk.  One CRPF officer has been killed with eight wounded in what most assume is a suicide operation by one of the Islamic militant units supported by Teheran-Islamabad.  A private channel has reported the Islamic group Jamait-e-Mujahiddin has taken responsibility for this operation.  Only yesterday Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari announced the liberation of Kashmir from India's control is Pakistan's responsibility.

rfn=Khost -  France24/AFP report the most senior U.S. Military Intelligence official in Afghanistan, Major-General Michael Flynn, has admitted his units are "so starved" of intelligence many say their job is more like "fortune telling."

night watch:  rfn=RASEVAC -  "We will work with KFOR (NATO units in Kosovo) to try and find out what exactly had happened and whether the incident was directed against the non-Albanian residents of if it is something we can call hooliganism or something similar happening in Kosovo."  B92 reports that was the announcement by Serbia Defense Minister Dragan Sutanovac speaking in Belgrade after Serbian villagers in Rasevac reported receiving fire from Kosovo after sundown Monday.  Then right afterward spotlights from Kosovo were trained on each of the houses.  This happened near the administrative line between Serbia/Kosovo in what Belgrade describes as the Ground Safety Zone (GSZ) which Serbia President Boris Tadic visited only last week.  Defense Minister Sutanovac added the Serbian military is also "constantly present in the municipality of Kursumlija" which is near Rasevac 100 miles south of Belgrade.

More shooting was heard on Tuesday but across the administrative line (border) the Kosovo Police (KSP) reported "no shooting was registered" and that KFOR was in charge of the line.  Yet so far KFOR has yet to issue any statement.  As a result the fifteen residents of Rasevac have begun armed patrols, a local explained, "No one from the police and military came, so we have to take rifles ourselves and stand guard."  They did meet with the Kursumlija Deputy Municipal President Dejan Milosevic who reassured them, "They wanted to leave, but I told them we will make sure that the situation will be stable."  The police have asked the residents not to fire back but this is the most serious incident since Kosovo declared independence from Belgrade two years ago and the 1998 fighting in Kosovo was used by NATO to justify its 78 day air campaign against Serbia in 1999.

rfn=Athens -  "Greece is in the frontline of the initiative that constitutes a basis for peace, cooperation and stability in the region."  B92 reports that was the policy statement from Greece Prime Minister George Papandreou the keynote speaker at Belgrade's Ambassadors Conference, during his meeting with Serbia President Boris Tadic.  Athens is also on the frontline of military support due to Greece's 2006 security agreement with Serbia.  President Tadic responded, "There are hardly any issues on which we have a different stance.  There are hardly any problems our countries and Europe are facing on which we have different positions.  I can say that our partnership has a significant strategic dimension."  So strategic that Greece will be the first country to end its military cooperation-membership with NATO since most NATO governments not only supported the 1999 air offensive but also recognized Kosovo's independence in 2008.

Teheran also signed a security agreement with Belgrade in 2006 and these latest incidents began just one month after Iran Parliament (Majlis) Speaker Ali Larijani met in Teheran with the Serbia Speaker of Parliament and announced Iran-Serbia relations should be "further stimulated."  Encouraging war in the former Yugoslavia is Iran's favorite way of keeping the West busy and on the defensive.

rfn=Muzaffarabad -  Belligerent, inflammatory statements between India/Pakistan leaders are continuing as the Dawn reports Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari declared fighting for Kashmir's liberation, from India, was Pakistan's responsibility.  President Zardari was speaking at a joint session of the Azad Jammu and Kashmir Assembly and the Kashmir Council in Muzaffarabad.  This is as close as Islamabad has ever come to admitting it has always been behind the Islamic uprising in the Muslim majority state since it began in November 1989 and has constantly come close to setting off the fourth full scale war between India/Pakistan since their combative independence in 1947.  Pakistan Tribune reports Zardari even stated his father fought in the 1948 war which was over Kashmir.

Only last week India's Army Chief General Deepak Kapoor warned India was prepared to fight Pakistan-China simultaneously.  This is hardly the best harbinger for a peaceful 2010 as if the restraints to full scale war are no longer working or believed in.  I actually think Islamabad is about to have its best war due to the support they are now receiving, not only from Beijing, but also from Teheran which received the offensive Action Plan from Pakistan President-General Pervez Musharraf in Feb. 2007.  And in 2006 Beijing began to revive its claim over the northeast India state of Arunachal Pradesh, the region China invaded for one month in Oct. 1962.  India is one of the main reasons Beijing has been the main supporter of the nuclear-ballistic missile programs of both Iran-Pakistan.

night watch:  rfn=KOSOVSKA MITROVICA -  Midnight Saturday B92 reports shots were fired near the Kosovo and Metohija Chamber of Commerce building in a street in the Bosnjacka mahala community in northern Kosvoska Mitrovica the city in northern Kosovo divided between Serbian communities in the nortern districts and Albanians in the south.  No injuries were reported but this is the second shooting in a week after several windows were damaged during the first.  According to Deputy Regional Director of the Kosovo Police Service, Ergin Medic, the police consider it to be a case in which an effort is being made to increase the degree of danger and fear in the community.

No one is in a position to benefit from this more than Teheran which announced only a month ago, through Majlis (Parliament) Speaker Ali Larijani, that relations between Iran-Serbia should be "further stimulated."  Larijani stated this in a meeting in Teheran with Serbia Parliament Speaker Slavica Dukic-Dejanovic (CFW Dec. 03-09) and all it would take to activate the Belgrade-Teheran 2006 Security Agreement is renewed fighting on the Kosovo/Serbia border which could be sparked by ethnic violence in Kosovska Mitrovica the hottest flashpoint in Europe.  In other words keep the West on the defensive by a new war within Europe in the former Yugoslavia.  The irresponsible division of Yugoslavia was encouraged by most governments in the Brussels based European Union (EU) in 1991 and the following year Teheran embraced the division by establishing relations with every new government in the divided country.

When Iran established relations with the Croatian capital Zagreb, Teheran announced, "Croatia is our entry into Central Europe."  Since then Berlin has sent Poland Leopard tanks, Washington has sent Poland F-16s and Moscow has assisted Poland upgrading its Soviet era military aircraft.  War is Teheran's real response to the nuclear issue and its hostile relations with the West.

night watch:  rfn=TEHERAN -  "We have given them an ultimatum.  There is one month left and that is by the end of January."  Jerusalem Post/AP report that was the warning by Iran Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki speaking through Iran State Television saying that by the end of this month, if the West does not accept Teheran's counter proposal, then Iran will begin production of nuclear fuel.  The Foreign Minister is fully aware this crisis will not be resolved peacefully, but in order to maintain the state of confusion among government decision making circles in the West, Teheran is having Mottaki deliver Iran's own ultimatum to match the threat the West has been making on new sanctions by the beginning of February.  That is why I am not surprised Teheran's ultimatum is timed to happen sooner than the West's.

In reality Iran has been producing weapons grade uranium for quite some time due to the support from Beijing-Islamabad as their foreign policies target mutual enemies, the West-India-Russia.  What has delayed Iran in setting off full scale warfare is the production of ballistic missiles that can reach it main international rival, governments in the West.  That problem has been solved by Iran's satellite tests for more than a year now to test guidance systems for very long range missiles.  What Mottaki may have been hinting is that Teheran will increase the fighting in regional theatres, West Asia (Middle East) - Central Asia (Afghanistan)-South Asia (India) and restart the war in Southeast Europe (Balkans) in February.

rfn=Tel Aviv -  I suspect governments in the West realize Iran has weapons grade uranium due to the defection of high level Iranian officals and realize there are nuclear facilities which have never been inspected.  Allied governments may also realize Iran's military-religious leadership never intended to go down in a blaze of peace but the question remains how long can Iran sustain an offensive against their main targets?  I have estimated Teheran has enough for one year of attacks, maybe not quite that long, against the West and India, in support of Pakistan.  Israel Deputy Foreign Minister Daniel Ayalon may have made a similar estimate yesterday as he was speaking in Tel Aviv in which Haaretz reports he predicted, "It is not certain that the regime in power now in Iran will be there in a year.  The world is uniting against Iran's nuclear program and within a month there will be United Nations Security Council sanctions."

Ayalon observed the West-Moscow-Beijing are concerned Teheran is intending to destroy the "current world order" and that is definitely Iran's intention but Beijing fully supports Iran's preparations and plans despite China's Central Government providing lip service support for sanctions.  Beijing has the same international rivals as Iran and wants the West-Russia-India to have less influence in the world's energy markets.  Ayalon is also aware this is not about who can control the salt in the Dead Sea and that what Iran had President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad say about wiping out Zionism was just a publicity smokescreen.  This is not what fool analysts in the West want to hear but it was Ayalon who warned last summer in New York, over Fox News, that Iran now possessed missiles that can reach the U.S. East Coast.  When Teheran's offensives run their course they will increase and merge their regional-international policies with Moscow.

rfn=Islamabad -  In response to yesterday's warning by India Army Chief General Deepak Kapoor, that India is prepared for war with Pakistan-China simultaneously, the Dawn reports Pakistan Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee General Tariq Majid first doubted the "veracity" of India media reports.  That Kapoor "could not be so outlandish in strategic postulation to fix India on a self destructive mechanism."  General Majid then remarked if the media reports are true then the statements by the India Army Chief are uncalled for and only "display a lack of strategic acumen."  But I believe General Kapoor was stating India's readiness to confront the current main offensive threats presented by Pakistan-China, Pakistan through Kashmir/Punjab and China through India's northeast state of Arunachal Pradesh which China invaded for one month in Oct. 1962.

WebIndia123 reports Pakistan Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Ashfaq Pervz Kayani responded to Kapoor's warning by saying, "The proponents of conventional application of military force, in a nuclear overhang, are charting an adventurous and dangerous path the consequences of which could be both unintended and uncontrollable."

night watch:  rfn=DELHI -  2010 is beginning with ominous statements from leaders in regional theatres which are on the verge of full scale fighting once again.  IRNA reports the newspaper India Daily quoted India Army Chief General Deepak Kapoor as stating India is ready to fight Pakistan - China at the same time.  Pakistan Foreign Ministry spokesman Abdul Basit was instructed to respond at a weekly press conference by saying, "Such statements betray a hostile intent as well as hegemonic and jingoistic mindset, which is quite out of step with the realities of our time.  No one should ever underestimate our capability and determination to foil any nefarious designs against the security of Pakistan."  Pakistan's military leadership is fully aware it was Delhi's mindset which set off the nuclear bomb tests in May 1998 which was a message not just to Pakistan but also to China, which is why India has developed long range ballistic missiles.

And I am not quite sure if General Kapoor's statement is offensive or defensive but it is definitely jingoistic and reflects the entrenched, non-negotiable mentality of India's Hindu leadership which is motivated by the nationalistic belief the sub-continent should always be under Hindu control.  The concept is called Hindutva and India's first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru warned India about it just before his death in 1964 since he knew it prevented India from coming to any compromise on the issue of Kashmir.  The province is Muslim majority and comprises less than ten per cent of India's land mass and Pakistan has at times indicated it would be satisfied with Kashmir becoming an autonomous state with a joint administration, but any Indian leader who suggested compromise would risk assassination as was the case of India's independence leader Mahatma Gandhi in Jan. 1948. 

But perhaps General Kapoor is not recommending a pre-emptive attack on India's two main enemies Pakistan-China since independence in 1947, in fact historically even before 1947.  Before Pakistan's creation in 1947 the country was at times part of Persia whose ruler invaded India in 1739 and looted wealth that is incalcuable including the Kuh-i-Nor diamond and Peacock Throne.  That offensive mindset is still very much alive within Iran' military-religious leadership which wants to explore the potential of Islamic military unity one of the foundations of Teheran's offensive foreign policy and they know cooperation with Beijing is crucial.  That is why Teheran received Pakistan President-General Pervez Musharraf in Feb. 2007 and accepted his Action Plan and it was General Musharraf who designed the Kargil probe in 1999 which almost set off the fourth war between India/Pakistan since 1947.

Then there is the threat to the east on the part of Beijing which established strategic (military) relations with Islamabad in 1951 just one year after China's invasion of Tibet on India's northern and northeastern border.  Beijing crossed the border in October 1962, for one month, when it invaded Arunachal Pradesh claiming it is part of China and Beijing revived its claim in Nov. 2006.  Last year India positioned more divisions in its northeast and constructed more air strips and now these statements from General Kapoor.  The warnings could mean India is not only fully aware of the regional axis against them, Teheran-Islamabad-Beijing, but is also fully prepared to respond massively.  Kapoor is also aware India's government will have full support from the West-Russia-Japan since their economic interests in South Asia are also threatened.

rfn=Khost -  It is now being reported by WebIndia123/Washington Post that the CIA base near Khost, in eastern Afghanistan near the Pakistan border, was used to direct the unmanned-drone attacks on Taliban and al-Qaeda.  These attacks are never as precise as they are advertised and have killed a lot of civilians which has resulted in more support for the Taliban and any Islamic group opposed to the NATO operations in the country.  Islamabad has also heavily criticized the drone attacks as has the government in Kabul which is why I suspect the suicide attacker, which killed seven CIA operatives and civilian contractors, including the CIA base chief, had assistance from outside Afghanistan, including perhaps from Teheran.

rfn=Belgrade -  "There is no doubt about 2009" that Serbia is the region's leader "and its strategic point."  B92 reports that was the annoncement by Serbia Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic in an interview with the Belgrade newsweekly NIN.  "It is also because it has become obvious that the solving of any problem in the region cannot be approached without Serbia's support.  Many thought that it was possible to circumvent Serbia but events have proved that this is not the case."  Since Serbia has been rearmed by Russia since NATO's 78 day air campaign in 1999 and in 2006 signed security agreements with Athens-Teheran it is obvious Belgrade is prepared for any military events and will not be isolated as during the 1990s.  Serbia has even improved its strategic relations with Turkey since Ankara never approved NATO making power projections in Turkey's direction.  The division of Yugoslavia in 1991-92, which Brussels eagerly encouraged, divided NATO which will not survive the next round of fighting.

War could begin again with incidents in two areas Foreign Minister Jeremic pointed out, targeted, areas of conflict that cannot be solved without Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo which has attempted to break away from Serbia by its independence declaration in Feb. 2008.  Belgrade and Brussels, as head of the European Union (EU) and as NATO headquarters, are at opposite ends on these issues.  Brussels has committed itself to preserving the unstable status quo while Belgrade-Moscow-Athens-Teheran-Ankara are committed to using the next series of conflicts to end Brussels' control.

night watch:  rfn=ASTANA -  "The price is high because of the secret nature of the deal due to Iran's commitment to keep secret the elements supplying the material.  The deal is to be signed soon."  Hurriyet reports that was part of a two page summary of an intelligence report to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna obtained by the Associated Press.  It details what is an obvious violation of international sanctions arranged by Teheran using "elements" (agents) inside Kazakhstan's state government.  It involves 1,350 tons of purified uranium, the yellowcake raw material, indispensable for nuclear weaponry, the essential element in nuclear production.  Kazakhstan is the world's third leading producer of uranium.  It will be sold at the cost of $450 million dollars (315 million Euros). 

Iranian nuclear officials are refusing to answer their telephones as Teheran calls the report a "fabrication and baseless."  As arranged Kazakhstan Foreign Ministry spokesman Yerzhan Ashibayev has denied the report as has the Kazakh state owned uranium company Kazatomprom.  A U.S. official admitted Washington was aware of the deal but refused to discuss specifics.  This is why sanctions never had any chance of being effective.

rfn=Ankara -  "Our axis is Ankara and our horizon is 360 degrees.  Some 31 trips were made to EU (European Union) member states and 16 to non-EU member European states, making a total of 47 trips to Europe, 15 trips to Asia, 22 trips to Middle East states and nine to the United States.  That picture shows we are spreading throughout the entire world."  Hurriyet reports that was the proud announcement by Turkey Foreign Minister Professor Ahmet Davutoglu as he stated Turkey will become even more influential and powerful in 2010 implying whose sense of direction will not be controlled by Washington-Brussels.  "Turkey's foreign policy has three main principles:  it is vision-oriented, not crisis-oriented, it is proactive (offensive) not reactive (defensive) and it is integrated and systematic beyond just a single axis."

Ankara's sense of crisis is different from that of the U.S.-Brussels and this policy statement was made by the author of the book "Strategic Depth" which argues Turkey should have enormous influence in every region around Turkey instituting order-Ankara's rule.  What the West calls a crisis Ankara-Teheran view as proactive events to keep the West/NATO on the defensive whether in Afghanistan or renewed fighting in the former Yugoslavia.  The trips mentioned by Foreign Minister Davutoglu, who is to arrive in Riyadh January 1, definitely reveal Turkey's sense of direction.  On their trips to Middle East-Asia Turkey's leaders were in complete agreement on strategic cooperation with Damascus-Baghdad-Teheran-Beijing but on their trips to EU member states there were constant questions on Ankara's ability to cooperate.  The only EU member state where Turkey's relations have definitely improved is with Greece which is also opposed to EU policy in the former Yugoslavia by signing a security agreement with Serbia in 2006 as did Iran.

rfn=Sarajevo -  "Broken Bosnia Needs Western Attention" is the title of an article B92 reports was just writtten by Britain Shadow Foreign Secretary William Hague and fomer London High Representative to Bosnia Paddy Ashdown for the Financial Times.  Their concern is extremely real and no exaggeration as this site has reported, for more than a year, similiar concerns on the gradual breakup of the patchwork state of Bosnia-Herzegovina and its three way government, composed of the Croatian/Bosnian/Serbian communities, caused by their tenuous cooperation.  The Serbian community, based in Banja Luka, and supported by Belgrade, never took the Bosnia government in Sarajevo seriously and now more recently the Croatian leadership in Zagreb is expressing its doubts about Bosnia's immediate future.

The worried authors wrote, "We must impress on Bosnia's leaders that the sovereignty of the country is unquestionable and its breakup unthinkable.  Bosnia may seem less important than it used to be to the U.S. and her allies.  Pressing challenges in Afghanistan and beyond need great attention.  The breakdown of the country into independent ethnic statelets will be catastrophic.  It would not only reward ethnic cleansing-surely a moral anathema-but would also risk the creation of a failed state in the heart of Europe; a fertile breeding ground for terrorism and crime, and a monstrous betrayal of all those who survived the concentration camps, mass graves and displacements of the 1990s.  Bosnia will not solve itself, nor will the prospects of EU integration be enough to bring the country back from the brink."

No, Bosnia will not solve itself and neither can it be solved by the EU since they helped create the problem to begin with through its behind the scenes encouragement of the breakup of Yugoslavia at the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s.  And this is where you have the betrayal of an entire nation-Yugoslavia if not also of an entire continent-Europe, betrayed by their deluded leadership which wanted to orchestrate a crisis in the name of the New World Order.  Grand Illusion did not end in 1919.  This failed state is the creation of a failed policy.

rfn=Athens -  But these truths are beyond the insulated mentality of the EU leadership, reflected in the writings of Hague-Ashdown, as they are incapable of realizing the most important decisions in this theatre are not coming from Brussels but from Teheran-Ankara which led the support of the Muslim government in Sarajevo by sending weapons and Islamic Mujahideen figthers to Bosnia to break the arms embargo against Sarajevo imposed by most NATO/EU governments.  But another government that has borken away from the crisis creating decision making of Brussels has been Athens which in 2006 signed a security agreement with Belgrade.  And B92/Tanjug report the Greece Prime Minister and Foreign Minister George Papandreou will address the Ambassadors Conference in Belgrade next week.  Neither Athens nor Ankara are taking their marching orders from Brussels.

rfn=Rabat -  Xinhua and Morocco's Medi 1 Sat are reporting the U.S. commader of its Africa Command (AFRICOM) General William E. Ward met with the Morcoco Inspector General of the Royal Armed Forces of Morocco (FAR) Lieutenant-General Abdelaziz Bennani who is also Governor of the Southern Zone.  The two discussed increasing bilateral cooperation.  This is General Ward's third visit to the strategic country on the Strait of Gibraltar after two visits in 2008.  This reduces the chances of Rabat saying to Madrid, as in 22002, that the boundary between Morocco/Spain is in the wrong place.  It is suspected the 2004 terror attack in Madrid may have been planned in Morocco and that prompted a visit by the Spanish Royal couple with the Morocco King and Queen in Marrakesh in early 2005.  This should reduce Teheran's influence in Rabat's decision making.

night watch:  rfn=RAMADI -  "A suicide bomber, wearing an army uniform ran towards the Governor.  Some security people held him back and he detonated himself."  Al Jazeera reports that was the account of Captain Ahmed Mohammed al-Dulaimi a local police officer in Ramadi, the provincial capital of Anbar province sixty miles west of Baghdad.  At first it was reported Governor Qassim Mohammed Abid was killed but AFP reported a doctor at Ramadi General Hospital stated U.S. forces transported the Governor to the hospital where he is now in critical condition.  Swissinfo/Reuters are reporting Police Colonel Jabbar Ajaj said the first suicide bomber set off a car bomb at a road junction in the city's center with the second attack a half-hour later as the Governor was inspecting the damage.  More than 30 people have so far been counted dead with 105 wounded and many of them members of Iraqi security units. 

Independent journalist in Baghdad, Ahmed Rushdi informed Al Jazeera, "There is now a curfew inside Anbar-(the roads) are only for police cars and ambulances.  All members of the Council and the Governorate have mild injuries."  Teheran began this bomb offensive in August targeting government institutions first in the captial, including in and near the International Green Zone, and now with this assassination attempt on the Governor of Anbar province which borders Syria.

rfn=Sopore -  Xinhua is reporting four Indian paramilitary soldiers in the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) were killed in an ambush at the Janwara-Watlab road in Sopore 35 miles (62 km) northwest of Srinagar.  The attack took place at 14:30 pm local time and was the fourth attack in two weeks with the Islamic militants using automatic rifles.  The attackers fled the area suffering no losses as India sent more police-paramilitary units to the area to begin searches.  This was the fourth attack in two weeks with previous attacks involving hand grenades and improvised explosive devices (IED).  For several years Delhi has demanded Islamabad close the militant training bases inside Pakistan and has threatened to attack them directly using India's hot pursuit policy.  That nearly happened in January 1990 as India rushed reinforcements to Kashmir just two months after the Islamic uprising began in November 1989.  Some Indian political leaders argued India should attack the bases right after the Mumbai assault Nov. 2008.

night watch:  rfn=HASBAIYA -  "The Army's anti-aircraft guns fired in the direction of four Phantom type enemy Israeli planes that had been overflying southeastern Hasbaya region at low altitude since Tuesday morning."  PressTV reports that was the announcement by the Lebanon Army through AFP and that the Israel Air Force (IAF) surveillance flight was still in the air at mid-morning.  IAF flights over Lebanon occur on an almost daily basis since the fighting in 2006 between Israel/Hezbollah but almost never are they fired on.  Hasbaiya is only 40 miles from Beirut/Damascus and Lebanon's response may have been decided in the meetings earlier this month between Syrian-Iranian-Lebanese officials in each country's capital.  Xinhua reports, according to Lebanon's National News Agency, the IAF flight entered Lebanon from Arkoub, Hasbaiya and western Bekaa.  NNA also reported there were large movements of Israeli forces in the Shebaa Farms area which is a disputed territory on the Israel/Lebanon/Syria border.

As a result of the 2006 fighting Europe has 13,000 troops stationed in south Lebanon serving under the United Nations and this past year Syria-Iran have trained Hezbollah in the use of anti-aircraft weaponry.  I expect fighting to erupt here again right after it flares up again in Gaza but this time Damascus-Teheran will enter the war directly.  Iran has a brigade size Rapid Deployment Force (RDF) it will commit to this front.  However one of the ways the expanded regional war could begin is the IAF responding to being attacked by Lebanon's anti-aircraft units.

rfn=Delhi -  "The DAP will set up a new framework of two plus two dialogue including the Foreign and Defense Ministries of the two countries and represented at the Junior Minister's level."  WebIndia123 report that was the announcement by Kazuo Kodama spokesman for Japan Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama in Delhi after he signed a new Action Plan with India Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh.  "Two-Plus-Two" represents regular consultations between the Foreign and Defense Ministries of both countries and combined operations against the immediate regional threat of nuclear terrorism and clandestine proliferation of non-conventional weaponry.

Though it was announced these measures are not directed at any third country it has long been widely known Beijing has never supported the anti-proliferation effort by the international community to prevent the shipment of nuclear-ballistic material to Iran.  China's Central government only paid lip service to the international trafficking of such material in the hope Iran's militaristic foreign policy will weaken three of China's rivals, the West-India-Russia.  Iran supports the Action Plan of Pakistan General Pervez Musharraf which he presented to Teheran Feb. 2007.  What we now have in South Asia are competing Action Plans, Tokyo-India as opposed to Teheran-Islamabad-Beijing.

night watch:  rfn=QOM -  "The facility in Qom is in a bunker and therefore resistant to regular bombs, ordinary shelling.  What the Iranians have recently resolved, according to their own decisions, is a site that was under construction for years.  The project of the decade will continue."  Haaretz reports these were just some of the warnings and remarks by Israel Defense Minister Ehud Barak at the Knessest Monday meeting of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee in Jerusalem.  Barak has described 2010 as a year of "threats and opportunities", the threat of course from Iran-Hamas-Hezbollah but the opportunity is the chance of new agreements with moderate Palestinians in the West Bank.  The Defense Minister realizes the Palestinian situation will remain after Iran's foreign policy runs its offensive course this year. 

That was practially announced earlier this month by Iran Defense Minister Brigadier-General Ahmad Vahidi when he stated Iran's armed forces are ready.  And perhaps the most important factor in Iran's preparedness has been the massive support from Beijing-Islamabad without which Teheran would have been unable to produce any nuclear weaponry and no long range ballistic missiles.  Beijing was eager to provide the assistance, not only to Iran but also to Pakistan, because they realized if Teheran-Islamabad are successful then three of China's rivals will become weaker, the West-India-Russia.  Earlier this year a news site published the photo of Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad posing with Chinese construction workers in front of a road leading into a mountain tunnel.

Both Jerusalem-Washington earlier this year confronted China's Foreign Minister during his trips to both capitals, on China's support for Iran's advanced weapons program and only received a smiling response.  Concerning more immediae threats YnetNews reported Barak observed, "The past year has been one of the more quiet years, which can be attributed to the 2006 Lebanon war and Operation Cast Lead.  Israel is stronger and more deterring but our premise is that a confrontation is possible.  Hezbollah has over 40,000 rockets.  Hamas has gotten stronger after Operation Cast Lead (Dec. 27, 2008-Jan.18, 2009).  The Iranians have missiles that can reach Israel and a big terror incident-which can serve some of the terror group's interests-can prompt a conflict with Hezbollah, Hamas or both."

Concerning the international community Barak stated, "The world's undivided attention is no longer focused solely on us.  The world is interested in the financial crisis and global terror, distribution of nuclear arms, radical Muslim terror and wayward nations.  We are a natural focus but we're not the only one."  This past summer Israel Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon warned, over Fox News, that Iran now possessed ballistic missiles that can reach the U.S. East Coast.  For more than a year Moscow had been warning what Iran was using its satellite tests for, to produce very long range ballistic missiles.  That is the reason Israel and the Palestinian situation is no longer the main concern.  It was the West's favorite issue to pontificate over.

There is very little chance a nuclear attack on Iran's underground facilities will be effective because I suspect they are nuclear bomb proof.  During the 1990-91 Gulf War the news showed underground military bases in Saudi Arabia constructed by Bechtel Group which is based in San Fancisco and it was mentioned they were nuclear bomb proof.  The day after the Gulf War ended in Feb. 1991, CNN showed the London branch office of Bechtel invited to Iran.  That was the reason the coalition was ordered to halt outside Baghdad and let Saddam Hussein remain and why Britain had no embargo against Iran.  Obviously there were those in Washington who went along with the scheme which has resulted in London-Washington selling Teheran their foreign policy.  This is why they convinced themselves Bin Laden can arrange flight school training and are now chasing the Jihad around Afghanistan.  Now they are fantasizing demonstrators in Iran can overthrow the government.

rfn=Tokyo -  Japan's government was not reassured by the recent visit of Saeed Jalili the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, that Iran's foreign policy is no threat to Japan's economic relations with South Asia and that Iran's nuclear production is for peace.  The region is on Japan's economic lifeline to the Persian Gulf and WebIndia123 reports today Japan's Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama was received by India Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao as he arrived in Delhi.  The Prime Minister will be in India for three days and has already met business/industrial leaders in Mumbai as the two countries increase their economic relations.  But the main concern is the immediate risk presented by military cooperation against India by Iran-Pakistan-China which will seriously disrupt Japan's economic connections.  In Feb. 2007 Pakistan President-General Pervez Musharraf presented Teheran is Action Plan and in 2006 Beijing revived its territorial claim over the northeast India state of Arunachal Pradesh which China invaded for one month in Oct. 1962.

That was during the dry season and the fighting extended south into Assam state which borders the Bay of Bengal.  The dry season will not end until April-May and on Tuesday Hatoyama will meet India Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh.  The meeting will be a direct follow up to Dr. Singh's visit to Tokyo last year where he signed an Action Plan agreement on defense-security cooperation an agreement which will be finalized Tuesday.  Several years ago a Japanese defense official stated to Delhi that Japan-India should watch China very closely and there have been reports of China's naval activity around Sri Lanka.  Tokyo is aware the West-NATO is completely caught up in Afghanistan and is therefore in no position to assist India.  Russia however is in a position to do so and has maintained extremely close security relations with India.  This is why Tokyo changed its foreign policy and made it offensive in late 2004 after Iran's Oil Minister announced Teheran wants China to become the main importer of Iranian oil instead of Japan.

night watch:  rfn=HARET HREIK -  Just one week after Hamas' leadership was in Teheran, being praised by Iran's government, two Hamas members have been killed in a mysterious explosion in Beirut, in the Haret Hreik district in the southern suburbs a stronghold of Hezbollah.  INN/AP report immediately Hamas' leadership has gone completely underground with no one, including their official spokesmen in Beirut-Damascus answering their phone.  Hamas realizes being praised by Teheran is like a death/martyrdom sentence and they weren't being praised for the sake of peace, quite the opposite.  Al Jazeera reports a photographer from AFP said the explosion took place in a narrow alley just meters/yards away from a community center where Hezbollah followers were listening to a televised speech by their leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah condemning Egypt for its new steel wall on the Gaza/Egypt border.

Lebanon's National News Agency said the explosion was caused by "three bombs tied to each other".  According to some accounts Ali Barakeh, Hamas commander in south Lebanon and owner of the targeted car was killed.  Al-Arabiya has also reported three Hezbollah members were killed and five other Hezbollah members wounded in the massive explosion.  Teheran also timed this attack for the height of the Shia ceremony Ashoura.  Investigations are underway as Hezbollah immediately sealed off the district and prevented journalists from viewing the site.  I will be surprised if Israel is not blamed as an excuse for setting off the expanded regional war Teheran-Damascus have been years in preparing.

rfn=Beirut -  "We call on the government in Egypt and the leadership to stop the wall and flooding tunnels and to end the siege otherwise it should be condemned by all Arabs and the Muslims."  Haaretz reports that was a demand by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in a televised address to tens of thousands supporters in south Beirut and it indicates the Egyptian government, under President Hosni Mubarak, will be as much, if not more of a target than the state of Israel.  Teheran is using the Palestinian issue to attack Mubarak's close relations with the West and what makes it easy for Iran is, not only the enormous corruption within the Egyptian establishment, but especially Mubarak having done nothing to support Palestinian people, one of the most popular causes in the region.  It was January 2008 when Teheran ordered Hamas to force open the barrier wall and the Rafah Terminal with fifteen explosions and last week Palestinian gunmen exchanged fire with Egyptian police protecting construction crews working on the new steel wall.

night watch:  rfn=BAGHDAD -  Israel Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon, the Jersualem Post reports, has called 2010 a decisive year for the international community regarding Iran's nuclear weapons program.  It was Ayalon who warned this past summer, over Fox News, that Iran now has ballistic missiles that can reach the U.S. East Coast and earlier this month Iran Defense Minister Brigadier-General Ahmad Vahidi announced Iran's armed forces are ready.  And today journalist Heather Robinson sent to the Post an interview with Iraq Parliamentarian Muthal al-Alusi, leader of the Iraqi Democratic National Party who is warning, "I believe that a bomb will be declared...by January, February with a nuclear bomb and missiles to launch it.  I think it is an international responsibility.  The U.S., Israel, Iraq, NATO to attack the program, attack the 4 or 5 main centers.  I think a military strike is the only response."  Alusi added there will of course be a price to pay but a greater one if no action is taken.

Alusi continued, "I am talking about Iranian insider informaton.  Very clear, from inside Iran.  They know this is a dangerous regime.  You see how they treat their own people...Iran is terrorizing the world already.  What will they do once they have the bomb and they are stronger?  We are receiving information which says Iran is so close to producing an atom bomb.  All the international community, they don't realize how close the Iranians are to the goal...The Iranians will surprise us one day and say 'We have it.'"  Alusi said his information comes from sources within Iran's "establishment" and who risked their lives to share this informaton.  "People who are part of the system in Iran, but do know how dangerous it will be if the fascists are in control.  They are wanting a normal situation to live and they know this might be their last chance."

In early September, before news surfaced on Iran's nuclear site inside the mountain near Qom, Alusi alerted Heather there were other previously unknown sites besides the four already known before Qom and there are still others.  It has long been reported the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors were never allowed access to all of Iran's nuclear facilities which is why I have often said the inspections were little more than guided tours to provide the myth Teheran was cooperating with the international community.  Also in September Alusi warned Iranian scientists were working feverishly to develop "missiles and atom bombs programs together."  He stated Iran's recent announcment that it will prepare ten more sites is to give the world the false impression Iran is still far away from developing weapons grade uranium.

rfn=New York -  "There will be some discussion among the Six first, before we table something in New York.  But I think probably by the end of February certainly, I expect there to be sanctions."  RIA reports that was the warning by Britain United Nations Ambassador Mark Lyall Grant discussing the latest response to Teheran by the five permament members of the UN Security Council-Britain-Russia-US-France-China and Germany being the sixth.  But if these warnings from Alusi are true, and I believe they are, then these sanctions are a moot point and the only offensive the international community is prepared to make is in the form of angry press conferences as they defensively respond to events caused by Teheran.  Iran revived its nuclear program in 1984 with massive support from Beijing to weaken three of China's rivals the West-India-Russia.  Of course Iran has nuclear weapons.  Iran has been working to develop the ballistic missile delivery systems.

rfn=Gaza -  "The crime of killing six Palestinians is purely a war crime.  This crime urges all Palestinian factions to reactivate armed resistance against the occupation and its crimes in the West Bank and Gaza."  Xinhua reports that was the call from Hamas spokesman in Gaza Sami Abu Zuhri after three members of al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade were killed in the West Bank city of Nablus and three Palestinians were killed in what was believed to be an infiltration attempt from Gaza.  In a rare show of unity Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas also condemned the Israeli action.  Teheran may still intend to use the Gaza flashpoint to set off the wider regional war which Damascus-Teheran are prepared to enter.

night watch:  rfn=ANKARA -  "Everyone is aware of Turkey's attitude on Gaza.  Everyone wants to see an end to the blockade on Gaza.  A Turkish convoy passed through Syria and carried humanitarian assistance to Gaza.  I thank the Turkish people for their generosity."  Hurriyet reports those words of praise came from Syria President Bashar al-Assad at a joint press conference Wednesday with Turkey Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara.  Officially it was just humanitarian assistance and that may have been the case but I suspect it was a practice run for Ankara to soon send a convoy of military assistance for Damascus's war effort against Israel.  It will be an extension of the hatred of Israel by Turkey's government which was expressed by Prime Minister Erdogan a year ago at Davos in a highly publicized debate with Israel President Shimon Peres during which Erdogan walked out.

If it were not for the moderator Erdogan would still be denouncing the Jewish state.  Since then Ankara has continued to assume a leading role, alongside Teheran, in regional cooperation against both Israel and the West's military presence.  Erdogan stated, "We're in the process of building with Syria a sound structure for the Middle East."  And he could have added without Israel as both leaders used the press conference, televised in Syria, to accuse Israel for being the main obstacle.  Erdogan continued, "We are living through historic times.  We are going to overcome all the obstacles and form with Syria a model for cooperation to be copied elsewhere."  History's current and near future will see the failure of Damascus-Ankara's military cooperation against Jerusalem.

rfn=Al Hillah -  An important official in Iraq's Babel province, south of of Baghdad, was assassinated this morning by Iraq security forces who opened fire after a twin car bombing 60 miles (100 km) south of the capital.  Swissinfo/Reuters report Na'ma Jassim al-Bakri was one of twelve people killed when two bombs hit a bus and taxi terminal.  The account was given by another Babel Councillor Abu Ahmed al-Basri but it is believed Bakri may have actually been killed when Iraq security forces opened fire after the explosions.  He was most likely killed by the security forces since this matches the pattern since Teheran began this latest bomb offensive in August.  In almost every attack Iraq police-security opened fire at the site of the attack after the explosions.  In this case it was a targeted assassination of an official in the government Teheran believed was too independent.  More than 90 people were wounded in the Hillah explosions and overall nearly 30 people were killed in the three separate attacks, this being just one, across the country, including on Shia pilgrims in Karbala.

rfn=Belgrade -  B92 reports Serbia President Boris Tadic will be meeting Serbian leaders from Croatia/Bosnia in Belgrade.  The Serbian community in Croatia will be represented by Milorad Pupovac and Serbs in Bosnia will be represented by Milorad Dodik the Premier of the Republic Srpska based in Banja Luka.  Significantly, no reason was given for Thursday meeting.  This could be used to plan a series of crisis that will lead to a new war in the former Yugoslavia to enable Belgrade to take advantage of its 2006 security agreements with Teheran-Athens.  Choosing a day before a major holiday may have been deliberate to reduce publicity. 

Serbia has been re-armed by Russia since NATO's 78 day air campaign against Serbia in 1999 and recently Iran Majlis (Parliament) Speaker Ali Larijani announced Iran-Serbian relations need to be "stimulated."  It was Teheran, along with Ankara, that led the breaking of NATO's arms embargo against Bosnia-Herzegovina in 1992, an embargo NATO used to increase the war and justify its armed intervention.  But Teheran realized what the Brussels led alliance had done, it had put the alliance completely out of position and created another regional theatre in World War III, one that Iran will use as its avenue of invasion into Europe.

night watch:  rfn=JERUSALEM -  "I think signals are very clearly in the air that another set of sanctions, another resolution that that's coming."  Haaretz/AP reports that was the warning by the Chairman of the Pentagon Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael Mullen after Teheran again dismissed the threat of economic sanctions led by the West.  Right afterward, on Wednesday, Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened a special cabinet meeting forum of seven Ministers and commanding officers from the military to discuss Iran's nuclear weapons production.  In 2009 there were a number of extremely high level meetings between the military command level between Israel-U.S. and Israel-Europe over Iran.  There were even two meetings in Russia involving Prime Minister Netanyahu and Israel President Shimon Peres.  The West has been applying sanctions since 2006 but what has prompted this new sense of immediacy has been Iran's satellite tests to develop guidance systems for long range ballistic missiles and revelations on the nuclear production facility inside a mountain near Qom.

rfn=Washington -  This comes right after the Tuesday warning by White House spokesman Robert Gibbs that December is a "very real deadline" for Iran to "pursue its responsibilities on the nuclear issue."  Xinhua reports Gibbs explained Iran President Ahmadinejad "may not recognize the deadline that looms, but that is a very real deadline for the international community.  We've begun to take steps..."  Those steps were discussed in Tuesday's teleconference between the Political Directors of the Foreign Ministries of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Conference (Russia-Britain-France-China-US) plus Germany.  U.S. State Department spokesman P. J. Crowley announced Washington was represented by Undersecretary for Policy William Burns as they outlined "future steps."

Gibbs warned, "We have offered them a different path.  If they decide not to take it then our delegation with the P5 plus 1 will move accordingly."  Crowley explained, "Come 2010 should Iran continue in its current posture then there will be implications and consequences for their failure to take advantage of this opportunity."

rfn=Teheran -  "The new generation of Iran's national satellite called Toloo (Dawn) will be unveiled in the Ten Day celebrations."  PressTV/Xinhua reports that was the announcement by Iran Defense Minister Brigadier-General Ahmad Vahidi on Iran's next satellite launch during the ten day celebrations Feb. 1-11 to commemorate the arrival of the Ayatollah Khomeini off the plane from Paris Feb. 1, 1979.  It was during the next ten days his government was established.  General Vahidi continued, "The great acheivements made by Iran's Defense Ministry in the electronics field has both increased Iran's deterrent power and ended the monopoly of some countries in this complicated field."  The Toloo was made by Iran's Electronic Industries Co. (Sa-Iran) in Shiraz.

Iran's first domestically produced satellite, the Omid (Hope) was launched Feb. 2009 using the Safir-2 rocket as the launch vehicle.  The Toloo will enable Iran's military to monitor the software/hardware movements of the enemy.  Teheran may be able to use that information to target enemy units and command centers.

rfn=Damascus -  PressTV/Al-Quds satellite channel report Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal has stated the steel wall being constructed by the Egyptian government on the Gaza/Egypt border is tantamount to a new war on the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip.  Cairo is desperately attempting to reinforce its position and control over the Rafah Terminal on the border which the government of President Hosni Mubarak sees as a barrier against Islamic extremism.  January 2008 Teheran orderd Hamas to force open the terminal and break through the wall with fifteen explosions and last week Palestinian gunmen exchanged fire with Egyptian police on the border.  Last week Teheran dispatched Majlis (Parliament) Speaker Ali Larijani to Cairo to meet President Mubarak under the guise of improving relations.  Larijani was sent to Cairo Dec. 2007 for the same deceptive reasons.

rfn=Gaza -  PressTV reports Israeli aircraft have been dropping thousands of leaflets warning residents not to support Palestinian militants.  This is Israel's standard operating procedure before a major offensive.  Israel began its highly successful 22 day Operation Cast Lead Dec. 27, 2008 against the Palestinian rocket fire.  The militants have been re-armed by Damascus-Teheran but I suspect most of Hamas' effort will be directed at Egypt through the Rafah Terminal.  Teheran will still have Israel attacked from Gaza and with Hezbollah attacking from Lebanon to attract Israel's attention north in order to reduce the chances of Israel participating in any combined operations against Iran.  Damascus-Teheran are also prepared to enter the war which will also catch the 13,000 European troops in south Lebanon in a crossfire.

night watch:  rfn=RAMGARH -  India's Border Security Force (BSF) prevented a major infiltration attempt by Islamic militants into Jammu Tuesday.  WebIndia123 reports the attempt was supported by cover fire from Pakistan troops Monday night on two of India's forward posts in the Samba Sector.  This was the fifth infiltration attempt within a week as Indian troops retaliated to the Pakistan fire on the Kandral post.  Afterward a BSF patrol intercepted militants who were seen near the S M Pur and S M Pur-One posts in the Ramgarh sub sector of Samba.  BSF Inspector-General A. K. Sarolia ordered a Red Alert for the entire region.  This comes after a ceasfire violation by Pakistan troops in a pre-dawn attack Sunday on the outposts of Londi and Bobiya.  And Saturday a BSF soldier was killed and two others injured during cross border firing on the Kranti post near the Line of Control (Loc) in Poonch.

The India/Pakistan war in 1971 began in December and I suspect these infiltration attempts and ceasefire violations are part of the Action Plan of Pakistan General Pervez Musharraf which he presented to Teheran Feb. 2007.  This is designed to force India to use its hot pursuit policy and attack the militant training bases inside Pakistan which will set off the fourth war between them since their combative independence in 1947.  Beijing also has territorial disputes with Delhi which is why China's Central Government revived its claim over India's northeast state of Arunachal Pradesh in Nov. 2006.  Beijing invaded northeast India for one month in Oct. 1962 and has been the main supporter of Iran-Pakistan's nuclear/ballistic missile weapon systems.   

rfn=Shiraz -  "The West can make as many deadlines as it wants, we don't care."  Haaretz/Reuters report that was the warning by Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad speaking to a crowd of supporters in the city of Shiraz.  PressTV reports his remarks continued, "The problem is that the U.S. seeks to dominate the Middle East but the Iranian nation is an obstacle.  The nuclear game is repetitious, old-fashioned and boring.  Say publicly that you are seeking dominance over the Middle East but Iran does not allow you to do so.  But the world should know that the Iranian nation and the regional countries will make it impossible for the U.S. to dominate the Middle East.  You should know that if we wanted to build bombs we had enough courage to announce that we are making bombs.  We are a great and brave nation.  We told you that we will launch the nuclear fuel cycle and we did it.  We told you that we will industrialize the fuel production and we did it...we told you that we will launch a new generation of centrifuges and we did."

The last part of the President's remarks is a virtual admission of having nuclear weapons.  In support of Teheran has been the response of every Muslim government in the region which also did not want to see another Islamic country-Iraq occupied and controlled by the West, London-Washington, after Saddam Hussein's removal in 2003.  Some regional governments, like Damascus were more obvious in their support.  But it was reported by the Los Angeles Times a few years ago that most of the foreign Islamic fighters in Iraq actually came from Saudi Arabia.

rfn=Moscow -  "As a rule up to four strategic bombers perform patrol flights simultaneously.  However, under specific circumstances, and on an order from the General Staff, their number could be increased up to eight aircraft."  RIA reports that was the announcement/warning by Russia Long-Range Aviation Commander Major-General Anatoly Zhikharev.  General Zhikharev is actually speaking as a result of a decision by the Kissinger-Primakov Strategic Working Group (SWG) to increase Russia's preparedness when relations with Iran descend into (f)allout war.  The SWG had a large meeting at then Russia President Vladimir Putin's residence outside Moscow in July 2007 and the next month Russia's Strategic Bomber Fleet began flying again for the first time since the Cold War ended in 1990.  Russia is the only Allied power in any position to confront Iran directly, through and across the Caucasus, a crossroads of energy pipelines between the Black and Caspian Sea and those pipelines carry fuel to Europe. 

That is why it was probably Germany which decided to institute the SWG by sending former U.S. Secretary of State to Moscow in April 2007 because Germany is the main purchaser of raw materials through Russia for more than a century.  Iran has been fighting Russia's control of energy resources in the Caucasus since Dec. 1994, first in Chechnya through Islamic units and now in the South Caucasus by supporting the Georgia government in Tbilisi.  Though Russia's offensive will direct Iran's attention north, Teheran's main response to Moscow will be largely defensive.  The main offensive objectives of Iran's military-religious leadership will still be directed at the West.  Other than bombs, Russia's strategic bombers are also armed with cruise missiles.

night watch:  rfn=MOSCOW -  "We owe this to the Americans.  When they launched their operation in Iraq, they destroyed the balance of forces that had existed for years.  Iran has attained the level of a Middle East power that must be reckoned with."  RIA reports that was the sober warning from former Russia Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov addressing a West Asia (Middle East) conference in Jordan.  Primakov is now a member of the Kissinger-Primakov Strategic Working Group (SWG) established with the arrival of former U.S. Secretary of State Dr. Henry Kissinger in Moscow April 2007.  This is the highest level of Allied decision making and they realize no one has benefited more from the London-Washington 2003 war than the Teheran government.  Iran is fulling the vacuum the lost alliance is leaving while at the same time Iran's nuclear-ballistic missile production is a massive threat to Russia-West-Japan and their economic relations with the entire area.

Prime Minister Primakov saying "reckoned with" is his diplomatic way of informing the conference this cannot be resolved peacefully.  And that Moscow's current response to Iran's threat, by delaying the completion of the Bushehr nuclear facility, is not enough.

rfn=Tokyo -  Also expressing "great concern" is Japan Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada and that the current nuclear standoff between Iran and the United Nations Security Council is "extremely regrettable."  Xinhua reports those views were expressed during the Foreign Minister's meeting with Iran Supreme National Security Council Secretary Saeed Jalili in Japan for five days.  Jalili's visit is virtually a summons and identical to the five day visit in Feb. 2005 by Iran Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi which was caused by Tokyo changing its foreign policy to offensive after Teheran had announced in late 2004 it wanted China to become the main importer of Iranian oil instead of Japan.  Of all the industrialized nations Japan is the most dependent on Persian Gulf oil and Tokyo realizes Teheran intends to become the main voice in the world's energy markets replacing the West-Russia-Japan, as if Teheran intends for Iran-China to be at the center of a new energy axis.

And Tokyo is very well aware that cannot be accomplished if Teheran produces nuclear energy for civilian purposes.  Japan has also monitored Iran's latest ballistic missile tests and its use of satellite technology for guidance systems for its longest range ballistic missiles like the recently tested Sejil-2.  Other missiles/rockets Iran will use to attack international shipping in the Persian Gulf and when that happens Japan declares war to restore and maintain its economic lifeline to the Persian Gulf.

rfn=Beirut -  "The Islamic Republic of Iran prioritizes the promotion of stability and peace in Lebanon and serious fight against tension and violations of nations' rights."  PressTV reports that was the policy statement by Iran Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki as he met Lebanon President-Generan Michel Suleiman.  The "violation of nations rights" could mean Israel's daily surveillance flights over Lebanon to monitor the re-arming of Hezbollah by Damascus-Teheran since the fighting ended in 2006.  Hezbollah has been trained in the use of anti-aircraft batteries which means it is quite possible the next fighting could be caused by their firing on Israel's surveillance aircraft.

But this time war in Lebanon will not be confined to Israel/Hezbollah.  Both Damascus-Teheran are prepared to enter the conflict as they have recently upgraded their security agreements earlier this month with a series of high level meetings and by establishing a joint command security commission for the first time.  Even Lebanon Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri met Syria President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus last week as an indication of complete agreement on regional issues (Israel and the 13,000 European troops in south Lebanon).  During the 2006 fighting Hariri made some extremely critical statements against Israel and supported Hezbollah which is now completely integrated into Lebanon's military.

Teheran-Damascus are aware of the unifying influence war against Israel-West creates, an influence Iran-Syria are at the center of and intend to direct.  Gulf-Times reports Foreign Minister Mottaki will also be meeting Lebanon Parliament Speker Nabih Berri, Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri, Foreign Minister Ali al-Shami and Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah.  Mottaki also attended a ground breaking ceremony for Iran's new Embassy in Beirut's Bi'r Hasan district.

rfn=Arbil -  PressTV reports Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad met the Prime Minister of Iraq's Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) Barham Salih in Teheran Sunday and stated stablility in Iraq would benefit the entire region.  To ensure Teheran's control of that stability on Monday Iran assassinated the Mayor of Tal Afar, Hussein Ekrish, when a suicide bomber detonated his vest at the Mayor's convoy.  Tal Afar is located in Iraq's northern Nineveh province, part of the Kurdish region just 45 miles west of Mosul.  Though the region is mainly Kurdish there are sizable Arab/Turkmen minorities and the ethnic-religious combination has caused conflict since 2003, even near armed conflict between Iraq's army and armed Kurdish groups.

I suspect Ekrish was not under Teheran's control and that Kurdish Prime Minister Salih is, especially since he visited Teheran August 2008 when he was Iraq Deputy Prime Minister.

night watch:  rfn=AL - FAUQA -  "Iranian forces returned to their previous posts last night after removing the new barricade that Iraqi soldiers had build next to the disputed oil well in a Thursday operation."  PressTV reports that was the announcement by an annonymous Iranian border official concerning the confrontation on the Iran/Iraq border Teheran claims was caused by Iraqi troops erecting a barricade on Iran's territory.  The official continued, "Iraqi forces had erected the now disassembled barricade next to the No. 4 oil well in Fakkeh."  Saturday Iran Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki conducted a phone conversation with Iraq Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari and the two agreed to establish a commission to solve the issue.  Despite the strategic cooperation between Baghdad-Teheran against the occupation this old dispute on oil drilling on the border remains and it could lead to a decision on joint development.

rfn=Northern Iraq -  "Exports have stopped and technicians from the Northern Oil Company have gone to the site to survey the damage.  We are asking the multinational forces to carry out more patrols to protect the pipeline, which was sabotaged for the fourth time in six weeks.  We will not know when exports will resume until we have surveyed the damage."  Al Jazeera reports that was the announcement from Assem Jihad spokesman for the Northern Oil Company.  A 35 mile (55 km) section of the pipeline, which runs to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, was damaged 195 miles (325 km) north of Baghdad.  Attacks began again October 26 after an eighteen month period of calm and as long as Washington maintain bases in the country these attacks will continue.  One of the great failures of the occupation was its inability to provide security for the pipelines.  This particular pipeline carries 420,000-450,000 barrels per day (bpd.)

rfn=Rafah -  PressTV is reporting Hamas has begun to condemn Egypt's government of President Hosni Mubarak for strengthening the wall on the Gaza/Egypt border and the Rafah Terminal.  The condemnation was expressed by Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhoum who called it a crime against humanity and that it assists Israel's blockade of the Gaza Strip.  Israel imposed the blockade in 2007 after Hamas took control of the Strip that June as Jerusalem attempted to prevent the weapons traffic from Syria-Iran into Gaza.  Egypt's government is also threatened by Islamic militancy and has therefore kept the Rafah Terminal closed.

rfn=Cairo -  But in support of Hamas Teheran has sent its Majlis (Parliament) Speaker Ali Larijani to meet President Mubarak and Egypt Parliament Speaker Ahmed Fathi Surur.  PressTV reports Larijani spoke to reporters afterward and stated, "The two countries' vision on bilateral relations is positive, which is the key to the development of the relationship between them."  Nothing could be further from the truth.  This bland statement is the height of diplomatic deception as the news photo revealed the two men looking at each other with mutual suspicion.  President Mubarak is fully aware Damascus-Teheran support the Egyptian opposition and Islamic militancy and that just before Israel's Operation Cast Lead into Gaza, Dec. 27, 2008-Jan. 28, 2009, Iran-Syria sponsored anti-Egypt/anti-Mubarak demonstrations.  Teheran had Larijani make a similar visit to Cairo, and make similar statements about improving relations, in December 2007 just one month before Iran ordered Hamas to force open the terminal with fifteen explosions.

Relations are about to explode once again since during the past week Palestinian gunmen have been exchanging fire with Egyptian police which has damaged some of the construction equipment and earlier this year the Egyptian government was forced to arrest members of Hezbollah.  Those arrests forced Mubarak to warn Syria-Iran "to beware the wrath of Egypt."  War is coming between Iran/Egypt as both governments realize whoever controls Rafah controls Egypt.  Teheran knows an Egyptian military heavily engaged in defending Rafah and the Sinai peninsula will have no time for any combined operations with Israel or the West.  Several months ago Larijani warned Teheran had a number of war scenarios planned and one of the most important ones involves the removal of the Mubarak government.

night watch:  rfn=AL-FAUQA -  "Our forces are on our own soil and, based on the known international borders this will help Iran."  Al Jazeera reports that was a statement released by Iran Armed Forces in support of the 11 Iranian soldiers who seized Well No. 4 in the al-Fauqa oil field just inside Iraq in Maysan province 100 miles north of Basra Friday.  These oil fields have reserves of 1.55 million barrels of oil and have been an area of tension between Iran/Iraq for decades and Iran have seized them on occasion, the crisis ended but not this time.  The reason could be this comes right after Iran Defense Minister Brigadier-General Ahmad Vahidi announced last week that Iran's armed forces are ready.  US Colonel Peter Newell told AFP this is just the latest in a series of incidents on the border.  Colonel Newell was speaking from Contingency Operational Base Adder just outside Nasiriyah 100 miles southwest of al-Faqua.  The New York Times reports the Pentagon Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael Mullen is also in Iraq's south visiting Basra where he met with an Iraq general and a leading Imam and also with U.S. troops.  Admiral Mullen is scheduled to also visit Talil Air Base in the south and has stated the dispute should be settled by the Baghdad government and there are no plans for Washington to intervene.

rfn=Baghdad -  So far the only role Washington seems to be playing is that of cheerleader as Haaretz/AP report Ambassador Christopher Hill stated, "It does speak to the overall view here that they are not going to be pushed around by Iran."  Ambassador Hill was responding almost ecstatically after Saturday's statement by Iraq Deputy Foreign Minister, "The situation this morning is the same:  the Iranians have not withdrawn from the well.  We are still sticking to our position in demanding an immediate withdrawal of Iranian forces from the oil well."  This contradicts a statement from U.S. commander of ground forces in Iraq General Ray Odierno that the Iranian soldiers were no longer in Iraq.  An oil worker at the field said five of the eleven soldiers remain in Iraq with the Iranians observing the developments from a hill on the Iran border.  They must be observing the Iraqi troops that have been positioned near the field as a result of the emergency meeting of the Iraq Security Council Friday headed by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki.

I don't think Washington is aware this is being orchestrated by Teheran with the complete cooperation of Baghdad an extension of the deliberate security breakdowns that enabled the massive bomb attacks on the Baghdad government to take place beginning in August.  Now we are witnessing the most serious border crisis since the removal of Saddam Hussein in 2003, a crisis which may be planned to provide Teheran reasons to intervene directly in the name of regional-national security.  Iraq's army is in no position to successfully engage Iran but Baghdad is in position to demand help from the Pentagon.  Swissinfo/Reuters reported Admiral Mullen stated, frightened, "I worry a great deal about Iran's view of destabilizing the region."  I think the destabilization has just begun.

rfn=Rafah -  "We have sent new forces to the border with Gaza after repeated shooting from the Palestinian side."  Haaretz/Reuters report that was an Egyptian police source speaking after Egyptian units constructing a new foundation for the fence on the Gaza/Egypt border have come under fire for the past three days.  There have been no casualties but some equipment has been damaged.  In a parallel development IRNA has just reported the Iran Majlis (Parliament) Speaker Ali Larijani is due to arrive in Cairo Sunday for a two day visit officially to attend an Islamic conference.  But Larijani is the point man of Iran's foreign policy and this mirrors his working visit to Egypt December 2007 just before Hamas was ordered by Teheran to force open the Rafah Terminal with fifteen explosions in January 2008.  Though for the moment Hamas is being told to say they are not responsible for the attacks on the Egyptian units. 

Teheran-Damascus-Hezbollah-Palestinian militants are all aware if Egypt President Hosni Mubarak and his government lose control over Rafah they will lose control over Egypt and will be replaced by a government with closer relations to Teheran.  Removing Mubarak is one of the most important objectives of Iran's regional policy, one that will install a secular opposition leader as head of state in the person of Minister of Intelligence General Omar Suleiman who has a strong base of popular support, as mentioned by a pan-Arab daily several months ago.

night watch:  rfn=RAFAH TERMINAL -  "It is Egypt's right to develop the fence which separates it from Gaza and it is its right to build a fence that will be stronger and not be toppled by bulldozer as this one was when hundreds of thousands of residents of the Strip stormed it in January 2008."  Ynet/Arabic BBC report that was an excerpt from an angry editorial in the Egyptian paper al-Gumhuriya as Palestinian gunmen have again exchanged fire with Egyptian police at the Rafah crossing for at least the second day this week.  Exchanges of fire took place on Thursday and AFP reports the Friday there was damage to the equipment of Egyptian construction workers due to the exchanges that day.  Cairo has sent more security units as the paper stated in its editorial the reinforced fence is intended to combat the rampant Palestinian weapons smuggling which is a threat to Egypt's sovereignty.

It is a threat controlled by Damascus-Teheran which ordered Hamas to force open the Rafah Terminal with fifteen explosions in January2008 which unleased a flood of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip into the Sinai peninsula to the town of El Arish.  Every Palestinian had been given three hundred dollars to spend and as the town welcomed the shopping spree the government of Egypt President Hosni Mubarak frantically attempted to restore order.  It was suspected Palestinian militants entered the Sinai peninsula with the tide of people and it was reported the Egyptian opposition group the Muslim Brotherhood assisted Hamas in forcing open the terminal.

It is the most immediate threat to President Mubarak of which he is quite well aware and it forced him to warn Iran-Syria earlier this year to "beware the wrath of Egypt."  Days before Israel began its Operation Cast Lead, Dec. 27, 2008-Jan. 18, 2009 Damascus-Teheran openly staged anti-Egypt/anti-Mubarak demonstrations.  Iran's government has always intended to use war against Israel as a way of inspiring more Islamic extremism not so much as a way of attacking Israel and supporting Palestinians but to use as a weapon against Islamic governments/leaders with close relations with the West-Egypt/Mubarak.  War is coming between Iran and Egypt.  This is taking place right after Iran Defense Minister Brigadier-General Ahmad Vahidi announced Iran's armed forces are ready and Iran's government recently received Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal in Teheran.

rfn=Fakka Oil Field -  "At 3:30 this afternoon, 11 Iranian soldiers infiltrated the Iran/Iraq border and took control of the oil well.  They raised the Iranian flag and they are still there until this moment."  Ynet/Reuters report that was the announcement by Iraq Deputy Interior Minister Ahmed Ali al-Khafaji on the seizure of the Fakka oil field in Iraq's southeastern Maysan province approximately 100 miles north of Basra.  So far the only response from what is left of the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has been this acknowledging statement adding the Iranian troops have raised the Iranian flag.  The Baghdad government has been wracked by divided loyalties and supported by army-security units heavily infiltrated by those who take their orders from Teheran, which has led to a severe breakdown of security since August with the beginning of a new wave of bombing attacks on government institutions.

Significantly Washington and the Pentagon have been strangely silent on this latest development.  That should not be surprising since Teheran is aware Washington is deathly afraid of any direct conflict with Iran and the Pentagon is concentrating on the increased fighting in Afghanistan.

night watch:  rfn=RIYADH -  Officials in Israel have just revealed Beijing refused an offer from Riyadh-Washington for China to recieve as much quantity of oil it is now receiving from Iran and at a less expensive price.  But Haaretz reports China's government refused since they realized it was to receive Beijing's support for serious economic sanctions against Iran.  If Beijing had accepted it would have been the most serious economic blow to Iran to date and I am not surprised Beijing refused because it was always obvious why China's government has been the most active supporter of the nuclear-ballistic missile weapons programs in both Iran-Pakistan.  China's government was always aware if Teheran-Islamabad are successful then three of China's rivals will become weaker, the West-India-Russia.  Beijing's support for Iran was never due just to receive oil imports.  China could have received more oil from Saudi Arabia quite some time ago and Beijing prevents any serious economic sanctions against Teheran by supplying Iran with thousands of barrels of gasoline almost daily.

rfn=Moscow - "We have many reasons for interaction, many subjects for discussion."  Xinhua reports that was the policy statement from Russia President Dmitry Medvedev during his meeting with NATO Secretary-General Andrs Fogh Rasmussen in Moscow.  The "many reasons" are listed above and they all revolve around Iran's constant preparation for full scale war in order to become the main voice in the world energy market, replacing the West and its most important supplier of mineral resources-Russia.  Ostensibly this meeting is NATO's attempt to increase Moscow's involvement in Afghanistan and possibly some commitment was mentioned publicy of Russia supplying some more helicopters and pilot training.

But industrial concerns in the West, led by Berlin, did not establish the Kissinger-Primakov Strategic Working Group (SWG) in 2007 to have Moscow concentrate on the Afghan abyss.  The real concern is just south of Russia's border in the form of Iran's nuclear-ballistic missile programs and Iran tested one of its latest missiles, the Sejil-2 yesterday.  Secretary-General Rasmussen stated Russia-NATO should establish a "real strategic partnership".  And that could only be done if the two could cooperate on restoring Russia's control over the oil-gas resources of the Caucasus between the Black and Caspian Sea a control that is threatened by Teheran's support of Georgia an extension of Iran's support of Islamic units in the North Caucasus which have been at war with Moscow since 1994.

Russia Prime Minister Vladimir Putin agreed completely at his meeting with Rasmussen, "A unification of Russia and NATO efforts in spheres of common interests may yield good results."  I suspect the Secretary-General's visit is an acknowledgement that not only is a peaceful resolution with Iran impossible but that due to lack of support from Beijing economic sanctions have no chance of being effective.

rfn=Islamabad -  "Unfortunately, the Americans are arrogant.  They think of themselves as omnipotent.  That's how they come across."  The New York Times/WebIndia123 report that was an observation by a frustrated Pakistan security official on the difficulty of working seriously with Washington a complaint that could probably be heard across the globe.  Islamabad has responded by searching the vehicles of U.S. officials from junior diplomats, CIA personnel and military attaches.  Visas for 100 U.S. officials have either not been extended or refused.  Washington has responded by accusing the Pakistan government of harassment and one U.S. official admitted it reflected the outright hatred of the U.S. by the Pakistan Inter-Services Intelligence agency and Pakistan military.

This is why I have often written what Washington has been doing with its "war on terror" and its dictatorial approach to allied governments has resulted in burning bridges and creating more enemies.  It did not begin and end with the Bush Administration.  Obscene, insulated arrogance on the part of Washington in promoting its militaristic foreign policy has been the foundation of the "American View" since the end of World War II in 1945 which catapulted the U.S. onto the world stage like never before.  And now this ongoing significant breakdown of relations with the strategically important Pakistan comes right after President Barack Obama promoted his troop increase plan for Afghan abyss in front of an eager audience of one of the most insulated institutions in the U.S., West Point in front of cheering cadets who assume battlefield glory awaits them.

This reminds me of an article I came across in 1970 when Washington was in the midst of conducting the enormously corrupt war in Vietnam, the article admitted the Pentagon leadership, several years previously when they were planning the war after President Kennedy's assassination in 1963, they actually convinced themselves the enemy would flee at the sight of an American uniform.  It is reported President Bush really believed that the U.S. would never have any casualties in Iraq after Saddam Hussein was removed in 2003.  Reality is not about to dawn in Washington.  They are proud of their ability to create enemies that is how they are programmed and President Obama at West Point was addressing the new generation of deluded leadership with absolutely no sense of responsibility.  It is a boom to the industrial services they represent, defense contractors.  This failure of Washington's ability to conduct serious, mature relations with strategic countries in one of Teheran's greatest weapons.

rfn=Damascus -  Xinhua reports Lebanon President-General Michel Suleiman is due for a visit to Damascus over the coming weekend.  This is not to express his condolences to Syria President Bashar al-Assad over the death of his younger brother but to coordinate Lebanon's army in cooperating with Hezbollah-Syria against Israel.  It will be an extension of the support Lebanon's army provided Hezbollah in 2006.  Suleiman's visit was reported by Hezbollah newspaper al-Manar.

rfn=Paris -  Xinhua reports the government of France has decided to open an office in Pyongyang as the "first phase of normalizing relations between the two countries."  It is quite possible the military-industrial leadership in North Korea has finally realized their future lies with cooperation with the entire international community instead of sustaining themselves only by providing military support to Syria-Iran.

night watch:  rfn=TEHERAN -  "I have expressed to him and he has also expressed concern about the test of a long range missile by Iran.  This is a matter of serious concern to the international community and it does make the case for us moving further on sanctions.  We will treat this with the seriousness it deserves."  RFI/Fars news agency report that was the grave policy statement by Britain Prime Minister Gordon Brown speaking from Copenhagen to United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon concerning Iran's latest test of its most advanced known ballistic missile the Sejil-2.  In late September Prime Minister Brown was one of the Western leaders who led the response to revelations over another Iran nuclear production facility built inside a mountain near the religious city of Qom.  For more than a year Iran has conducted successful satellite tests to perfect guidance systems for its longest range ballistic missiles of which the Sejil-2 could be one.

Haaretz reports Iran's Arab language satellite television station, Al Alam, announced the Sejil does have a range longer than the Shahab-3 range of 1,250 miles (2,000 km).  Iran Defense Minister Brigadier-General Ahmad Vahidi proudly announced, "The missile test that we witness is one ring of our defense capability chain in line with increasing the armed forces deterrent power."  Iran's military-religious leadership have for years given the false impression these tests and maneuvers are just for defensive purposes.  IRNA reports this upgraded version of the two stage Sejil-2 is smaller which increases its chances of evading interception by Allied missile interception systems.  The rocket burns solid fuel which is slower burning and increases the range.  This past summer Israel Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon warned, over Fox News, that Iran has missiles which can reach the U.S. East Coast.

rfn=Teheran -  "The commanders of Iran's armed forces have the political insight into local issues and they are fully aware of intelligence about enemies.  The commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the military have devised plans to deal with any scenario created by the enemies."  PressTV/Fars news agency report that was the warning by Major-General Yahya Rahim Safavi the senior military adviser to Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei.  General Safavi's statement is no idle boast, due to Teheran's regional contacts and high level operational relations with those governments, Iraq/Afghanistan for example, it will be impossible to catch Iran's military by surprise.

And those government contacts provide Teheran with detailed briefings on their meetings with Israel and the West.

rfn=Muscat -  IRNA reports Teheran will hold the 8th annual Iran-Oman Joint Defense Cooperation Commission meeting next week in Teheran.  High level defense officials from both countries will map out combined operations against Western military bases in the Persian Gulf.  The last meeting was held in the Oman capital Muscat.  Iran's military relations with Oman are as important as their relations with Syria-Sudan-Pakistan.

night watch:  rfn=VANDENBURG AIR FORCE BASE -  "Previously, we have been testing the GMD (Ground Based MidCourse Defense) System against a North Korean-type scenario.  This next test...is more of a head on shot like you would use defending against an Iranian shot into the United States.  So that's the first time we're now testing in a different scenario."  Ynet/Reuters reports that was the announcement by U.S. Army Lieutenant-General Patrick O'Reilly speaking in Washington at the Reuters Areospace and Defense Summit on the January test to be conducted at Vandenburg Air Force Base in California.  General O'Reilly continued, "Whenever we have a situation where we are taking on a missile more head on than from the side, that increases the challenges.  The development of the long-range threat has been slower than what was orginally estimated, and the pace of the medium range missiles has been dramatically higher."

The January test will involve a missile interceptor launched from Vandenburg at a simulated incoming missile from the Marshall Islands in the Pacific Ocean with their combined closing speed of 17,000 miles per hour (27,000 kph).  If successful the impact will be over the north central Pacific but experts have compared this to a bullet hitting another bullet.  Earlier this year the Pentagon stated it could intercept thirty missiles simutaneously as reports continued concerning Iran's successful satellite tests which Teheran used to produce guidance systems for long-range ballistic missiles.  This past summer Israel Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon warned Iran had missiles that could reach the U.S. East Coast.  That was just a couple of months before France President Nicolas Sarkozy, Britain Prime Minister Gordon Brown and U.S. President Barack Obama expressed their concern over the Qom nuclear facility in late September.  Obviously Teheran wants to follow up on the 9/11 attack on New York-Washington.  Ground based lasers can also be used to intercept missiles.

rfn=INTERNATIONAL GREEN ZONE -  "The third was near a restaurant that is attended by officers of the police and the Iraqi army for breakfast in the early morning.  It's just outside the Green Zone which is a big challenge for the security who are inside the Green Zone and inside the Parliament."  That was a statement from journalist Ahmed Rushdi speaking to Al Jazeera as three car bombs were set off beginning at about 7:30 am.  Xinhua reports the restaurant was the Haideer with the other targets the Foreign Ministry again and the Ministry for Immigration and Displaced Persons.  This is the fourth wave of explosions Teheran has conducted beginning in August but this time only four were killed and fourteen wounded. 

There were also three bomb attacks in the northern city of Mosul targeting Christian institutions:  The Syrian Catholic Church of the Annunciation in the north of the city, the Syrian Orthodox Church of Purity in the city center and a Christian school.  No one was killed but 40 were injured.

rfn=Heetal Hotel -  "This has happened in an area that has a lot of foreign offices-it's near the U.S. Embassy.  We understand that, at the time of the blast Afghanistan's former Vice-President Ahmed Zia Massoud, was in the area.  We understand that he survived the attack."  That was an account from Steve Chao, Al Jazeera correspondent in Kabul where eight people were killed and forty wounded in another bomb attack.  This one was near the Heetal hotel in the diplomatic district of Kabul, Wazir Akbar Khan.  The explosion was heard by government officials, politicians and foreign representatives in another part of the capital attending a three day anti-corruption conference hosted by President Hamid Karzai.  Corruption is one of the chief pillars of support for the Taliban.

night watch:  rfn=TEHERAN -  "The most shattering conclusion is that, if this was an effort that began in 2007, it will be a casus belli (justification for war).  If Iran is working on weapons, it means there is no diplomatic solution.  Is this the smoking gun?  That's the question people should be asking.  It looks like the smoking gun.  This is smoking uranium."  Haaretz reports that was the concerned observation by Mark Fitzpatrick a member of the International Institute for Strategic Studies based in London on the latest disturbing revelations on Iran's nuclear weapons program.  His analysis is based on relased confidential intelligence documents reported by The Times of London using an "Asian intelligence agency" which could be Pakistan.  The information reveals Iran tested a neutron initiator in 2007 which is used to trigger a nuclear bomb using uranium deuteride which mirrors Pakistan's nuclear weapons production.

This should not be surprisng because in May 1998, right after Islamabad responded to India's nuclear explosions with explosions of their own, Pakistan was visited by Iran Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi who praised what he called the "Islamic bomb."  Kharrazi never called it Pakistan's bomb because Teheran was engaged in the same research and development for the same reasons, to produce nuclear weapons, warheads for Iran's longest range ballistic missiles.  The nuclear weapons programs of both countries have long been connected and the link between Iran-Pakistan was Beijing which provided constant support to both countries because Beijing realized if Iran-Pakistan were successful then three of China's rivals would become weaker, the West-India-Russia.  Hurriyet reports the information indicates Iran developed the neutron initiator after a four year program.

The timing of the release of this information is significant because it comes just before the West is to meet early next year to apply more economic sanctions on Iran and these new developments are being used to prove (admit) a diplomatic solution is not possible.  This "casus belli" can be used to justify a pre-emptive attack.  But Teheran likes to maintain the event initiative in order to keep the West on the defensive.  Several years ago, when U.S. President George W. Bush began to mouth off about attacking Iran as an "option on the table", an Iranian official stated they will not let the U.S. attack first.

rfn=Baghlan-e-Markazi District -  Teheran has timed heavier attacks by the Taliban in Afghanistan to increase the trap NATO units are in as Iran's relations with the West/NATO continue to deteriorate.  Xinhua reports in the past 24 hours nearly 15 Afghan police have been killed in attacks on two checkpoints in the north and south of the country.  The checkpoint in the Baghlan-e-Markazi district, in northern Baghlan province was one of the targets and another police checkpoint in Helmand province in the south.  This comes as the Chairman of the Pentagon Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael Mullen met the Afghanistan Defense Minister General Abdul Rahim Wardak.  Admiral Mullen stated at a press conference afterward, "We must quickly reverse the momentum of the insurgents..." 

But what NATO prides itself on refusing to admit the greatest recruiting momentum for the Taliban is the military presence of the West in the country that has caused so many civilian deaths.  NATO bases in the country are within easy range of Iran's missiles.

night watch:  rfn=FRANKFURT -  "He wll be an obvious conduit of information."  Jerusalem Post reports that was a statement from a source in France's foreign secret service DGSE (Director Generale de la Securite Exterieure) speaking through Intelligence Online and the British paper The Daily Telegraph, on the information received from Shahram Amiri.  Amiri defected during pilgrimage to Mecca in late May and the source explained Amiri had apparently been approached by the CIA when he was in Frankfurt last year "in connection with his research work.  A German businessman acted as go-between.  A final contact was made in Vienna when Amiri traveled to Austria to assist the Iranian representative at the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency).  Shortly afterwards, the scientist went on a pilgrimage to Mecca and hasn't been seen since."

Relatives of Amiri have said his research work at Teheran University is regarding the medical uses of nuclear technology but I can't believe that was his assignment at the facility near Qom which became an emergency topic of discussion at the G20 Summit a few months ago.  Amiri briefed the IAEA inspectors at a secret meeting at Frankfurt airport before the inspectors left to view the Qom site.  He informed them on the operations and security procedures at Qom.  I suspect his work actually involved providing material for nuclear warheads to be used by Iran's longest range ballistic missiles.  During Iran's Defense Minister Brigadier-General Ahmad Vahidi's visit to Damascus this past week General Vahidi announced Iran's armed forces are ready.  Berlin has long been Iran's main economic connection with the West and those contacts can be useful in approaching Iranian technicians and personnel in important positions.

rfn=Beirut -  Lebanon President General Michel Suleiman arrived in Washington on Saturday with a shopping list for weaponry.  Jerusalem Post/AP report the U.S. has recently sent Lebanon:  aircraft, tanks, artillery, small boats, infantry weapons, ammunition, Humvees and cargo trucks.  Lebanon has also received $410 million for the military and police and in the next few months 12 Raven unmanned reconnaissance-surveillance aircraft will arrive.  But Washington has refused to send advanced weaponry because that could end up with Hezbollah which is an extension of Iran's  military.  Lebanon's military has also been absorbed by Teheran.  Some Lebanese army units were known to have worked with Hezbollah during the 2006 fighting with Israel.

rfn=Gaza -  Teheran may still intend to use Palestinian militants in Gaza to set off the expanded regional war.  And Xinhua reported today the PFLP (Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine) announced they had just fired "tens of rockets" into Israel.  But Israel Army Radio only counted two Qassam rockets that landed in the Western Negev.  It was sustained rocket fire that caused Jerusalem to conduct its Operation Cast Lead from Dec. 27-Jan. 18 and the fighting in 2006 was begun late June with a raid by Hamas.  Teheran then instructed Hezbollah to stage an ambush from the Lebanon border two weeks later.

night watch:  rfn=DAMASCUS -  On the last day of the visit by Iran Defense Minister Brigadier-General Ahmad Vahidi to Damascus, Ynet News reports, a defense cooperation agreement was signed with Syria Defense Minister Lieutenant-General Ali Muhammad Habib.  This should finalize military preparations against not only Israel but also the Pentagon bases in Iraq and the 13,000 European troops in south Lebanon.  No time table was announced but a joint committee was formed, a command structure, between the two militaries for the first time since defense cooperation was officially announced in June 2006.  I assume this means Syria-Iran believe they have prepared Hamas-Hezbollah enough to begin the expanded regional war against Israel and the military presence of the West throughout the entire region.

rfn=Manama -  At the same time IRNA reports Kuwait Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs Sheikh Muhammad as-Salim as-Sabbah held a meeting in Manama with Iran Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki in which Sheikh as-Sabbah stated, "Any anti-Iran move is tantamount to action against entire region."  The two officials met on the sidelines of the International Institute for Strategic Studies Conference in Manama, Bahrain, the IISS 6th Conference on Persian Gulf security.  Foreign Minister Mottaki spoke at the conference and accused the presence of foreign troops and bases as the main threat to Persian Gulf security.  Mottaki also received a supportive, attentive audience during his meeting with the Foreign Minister of Bahrain Sheikh Khaled bin Ahmed al-Khalifa. 

Mottaki also received pledges of support during his meeting with Iraq Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari.  Zebari fully supports Teheran's latest bombing campaign against the Iraq government including the Foreign Ministry building and sees it as more of an attack on Washington.

rfn=Baghdad -  Despite these continued attacks and daily violence RFI reports the Baghdad government conducted a highly successful two day auction of seven stateowned oil fields to foreign consortiums.  The two day auction was televised with the participation of 44 companies that included:  Total, BP, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Anglo-Dutch Shell, Angola-Sonagol, Gazprom from Russia, South Korea-SoGas, Petronas from Malaysia, TPAO-Turkey, China-CNPC and an oil concern from India.  On Friday CNPC, Petronas and Total won the contract for the largest field Halfaya with a projected production of 535,000 barrels per day (bpd) at a fee of 1.4 dollors per barrel (0.9 Euros).  Anglo-Dutch Shell and Petronas won the contract for the Majnon field with a projected production of 1.8 million bpd.

On Saturday five more fields were sold.  100 percent of the Najmah field was awarded to Sonagol at 110,000 bpd.  Qaiyareh field was also awarded 100 percent to Sonagol at 120,000 bpd.  The Badra field was divided 40 percent-Gazprom, 30 percent-KoGas, 20 percent-Petronas, 10 percent to TPAO 170,000 bpd projected.  The Garraf field divided 60 percent-Petronas, 40 percent to Japan's Japex at 230,000 bpd and the West Qurna field, 85 percent Gazprom, 15 percent to Norway's StatoilHydro, 1.8 million bpd.  The East Baghdad field, Eastern Fields and Middle Furat field remain unsold.

Significantly no bid from a U.S. company was successful.  This is hardly the economic coalition London-Washington projected in 2003 after they removed Saddam Hussein and U.S. President George W. Bush proudly announced, "If you were part of the coalition you can take part in Iraq's economy."

night watch:  rfn=BRUSSELS -  "Iran's persistant failure to meet its international obligations and Iran's apparent lack of interest in pursuing negotiations requires a clear response.  The European Union (EU) stands ready to take the necessary steps."  Ynet/AP report that was a statement issued by the 27 member state organization from their headquarters in Brussels as Teheran repeatedly ignores, even laughs off, threats of economic sanctions which the West has been applying since 2006.  The reason for this new concern is because the EU has finally realized Iran now has ballistic missiles that can reach every capital in the regional organization as a result of Iran's successful satellite tests for more than a year.  Relations between Iran/EU will continue to deteriorate early next year as Teheran now appears to be ready to make its real response through events.

rfn=Taipei -  In order for new sanctions to have any chance of effectiveness the first thing Brussels will have to do is make certain its member states check the end-user certificate whenever they export advanced technology.  Jersualem Post reports the British paper Daily Telegraph has written Iran was able to obtain 100 pressure transducers from European companies through Taiwan.  After the equipment arrived in Taiwan it was then sent to Iran's Defense Ministry.  A United Nations source told the Telegraph, "This is a serious loophole, as it enables Iran to acquire sophisticated equipment that can help it develop its nuclear program."

rfn=Ankara -  "Israel will receive a response equal to that of an earthquake."  Hurriyet/JPost report that was the warning by Turkey Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Israel not to violate Turkish airspace to conduct surveillance flights over Iran.  Prime Minister Erdogan was speaking Thursday to Egyptian journalist Fahmi Huwaidi and this further indicates the close strategic relations between Ankara/Teheran as opposed not only to Israel but also to the West.  This year Jerusalem has integrated a lot of its military command structure with some NATO nations (Britain-France-Germany-US-Italy) but obviously not with Turkey which has become a major part of Teheran's attempt to establish a new "pole of power" in the region.

rfn=Gaza -  Jerusalem Post is reporting Hamas is leading Palestinian units in the constructing of "offensive tunnels" and constant smuggling operations for long range rockets from Iran that can reach Tel Aviv from Gaza.  The rockets are smuggled in separate parts and re-assembled by Hamas engineers as Hamas controls hundreds of tunnels along the Philadelphi corridor on the Gaza/Egypt border.  Teheran-Damascus-Hamas have expanded the tunnel networks since Israel's Operation Cast Lead ended Jan. 18 which has enabled Palestinian militants to amass a new arsenal of a few thousand rockets.  Several hundred have a range of 25 miles (40 km) which can reach Beersheba and several dozen with the range of 36 miles (60 km) to 48 miles (80 km) which can reach Tel Aviv.  Hamas/Islamic Jihad have also received a longer range anti-tank missile the 9M113 Konkurs missile which has a 2.5 mile range and anti-aircraft missiles.

Hamas is using eighty percent of the mosque for rocket storage areas, launching pads and command-control centers.  It has also constructed a series of "offensive tunnels" from urban areas, beneath houses of important members and from command centers, into open fields for operations and raids into Israel.  Hamas is mistakenly assuming with its important centers in urban areas and apartment buildings Israel will not attack them from the air.  But in the heavy fighting between Israel/Hezbollah in 2006 the Israel Air Force (IAF) did not hesitate to attack apartments in south Beirut where Hezbollah members and Iranian advisers were based.  Palestinian militants made similar preparations before Operation Cast Lead and those preparations were completely ineffective.  The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) lost only ten soldiers.  With the excellent and specific intelligence the IDF possesses I will be surprised if Palestinians will be able to launch more than ten percent of their rockets.

rfn=Khartoum -  IRNA/Xinhua are reporting Iran Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki is in Khartoum meeting with Sudan Presidential Adviser Mustafa Othman Ismail and will later meet with President Omar al-Bashir.  This is being done under the guise of stabilizing Darfur in western Sudan and assisting development in Sudan's south.  But in reality Sudan has long been used to ship equipment from Iran into the Sinai peninsula and from there to Gaza.  Sudan can also be used as another base of support for the Egyptian opposition to President Hosni Mubarak, the last Muslim head of state with close relations with the West.  Just days before Israel's Operation Cast Lead began Dec. 27 both Damascus-Teheran publicly sponsored anti-Egypt/anti-Mubarak demonstrations.

night watch:  rfn=JERUSALEM -  "Every move to advance negotiations...jeopardize the Syrian government and Assad's dynasty.  As such, everything he says about negotiations and peace is simply rhetoric."  Jerusalem Post reports that was the telling, factual observation by Israel Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman and it comes as the regional axis of Teheran-Damascus are continuing their high level meetings with the intention of conducting an expanded regional war.  IRNA has reported Iran Defense Minister Brigadier-General Ahmad Vahidi has arrived in Damascus for three days of meetings with Syria Defense Minister Lieutenant-General Ali Mohammad Habib Mahmoud.  These high level meetings between Damascus-Teheran have now been going on for a week and Ynet/Mehr news agencies report General Vahidi announced upon his arrival, "The Islamic Republic's armed forces are fully prepared."

This comes as Teheran made its final military preparations with the extensive missile/rocket tests in September as General Vahidi tested every variety in Iran's arsenal and the five days of large scale air defense maneuvers last month over a third of the country's land mass which are intended to protect Iran from any retaliatory attack by either Israel-West-Russia.  It is now time to transfer all that planning and preparation into the field.  General Vahidi has already re-stated Teheran's position that Syria's security is Iran's security.  Vahidi has even warned what is emerging is a "new pole of power in the region" and that what these meetings in Damascus have represented is a combined, collective cooperation between; Teheran-Baghdad-Ankara-Damascus.  The latest results of the Teheran-Baghdad cooperation has resulted in the massive bomb attacks against the ephemeral Iraq government we have witnessed since August, the most recent ones being yesterday.

General Vahidi announced to reporters that high ranking Syrian-Iranian officials have designed political/strategic plans to increase their regional/international cooperation.  This is what Iran Majlis (Parliament) Speaker Ali Larijani referred to earlier this year as "war scenarios."  Vahidi observed that the presence of "alien forces" in Iraq has been the main cause of instability and he even stated Teheran's support for the government in Beirut.  Damascus-Teheran have both been the most consistent supporters of armed groups attacking the U.S. troops in Iraq and the main supporters of Hezbollah in Lebanon which has led to the unit's massive re-arming since their 2006 fighting with Israel.  This meeting by the Defense Ministers in Damascus signals not only are they ready to have attacks against Israel resume, from Gaza-Lebanon.

Syria-Iran are ready to enter and have the fighting spread at least into Iraq in order to reduce the chances of any combined action by Israel and the Pentagon.  This will also trap the 13,000 European troops in south Lebanon in a massive crossfire as Teheran always intended to keep its enemies on the defensive.

rfn=Moscow -  The only enemy of Teheran in any position to conduct any sustained offensive against Iran is Russia which has been fighting Iran for control of resources in the Caucasus since 1994.  The Kissinger-Primakov Strategic Working Group (SWG) has prepared Moscow to go beyond delaying the completion of Iran's nuclear installation at Bushehr on the Persian Gulf as Russia's only response so far to the threat from Iran.  Russia is now ready to attack the facility as an expression of Moscow's displeasure at Teheran's attempt to disrupt Russian exports of raw materials from the Caucasus to Europe the main source of Russia's financing. 

The Russian government expressed its concerns today as WebIndia123 reported this warning from Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow, "The situation in the West Asia raises concerns in Moscow.  Russia thereby is trying to make its contribution to the Palestinian unity.  We will continue to work with the Hamas."  Foreign Minister Lavrov was addressing a joint press conference with Palestinian Authority Foreign Minister Riyad al-Maliki whose government is officially opposed to Hamas but both Moscow/Ramallah realize Hamas is the most powerful representative of Palestinian people and the main instrument of Teheran in Gaza.  This could be the Kremlin's way of saying they realize heavier fighting is about to break out.

night watch:  rfn=BAGHDAD -  "We just spoke to a high security official who said he was worried that the security forces were infiltrated.  This is a blow to the security forces and Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, who is running for re-election, on a platform that he has improved security across the country.  Attacks have become a part of daily life, not only in Baghdad, but across the country.  Security is not only fragile, it is deteriorating."  That was a grim observation by Al Jazeera correspondent in Baghdad Zeina Khodar after Teheran used its contacts in the capital and security forces to set off five bombs across the city.  Hurriyet/AFP quoted Major-General Qassim Atta spokesman for Baghdad security, "The same black hand that was behind the attacks in August and October committed today's bombings.  This has the touch of al-Qaeda and the Baathists."  It is the "black hand" of Teheran which controls both, with the Baathists being followers of Saddam Hussein who was overthrown by London-Washington in 2003.  More than a hundred people were killed and more than four hundred wounded. 

Swissinfo/Reuters reports these attacks signal a change of strategy by groups opposed to the U.S. troop presence and its apparent support by Iraq's government.  Instead of many smaller attacks as in previous years now larger less frequent attacks are being carried out and this can only be done with constant breaches in security since most of the targets are government buildings in and near the fortified International Green Zone.  Green Zone security was taken over by Iraq security units earlier this year and when these attacks began in August people have wondered out loud how can this happen without cooperation from those same security forces.  Arrests have been made, supposedly, as before but nothing has improved in fact quite the opposite because Tuesday's attacks took place in five locations.  And as in October machine gun fire was heard afterward at one of the explosion sites.

Four of the explosions were suicide bombs using cars and minibuses while the fifth may have been triggered by timer or remote control.  The first explosion targeted a police patrol and checkpoint at 10:30 in the morning in Doura south Baghad then a half hour later four bombs explode within a matter of seconds.  One hit the new temporary building of the Finance Ministry in downtown Baghdad which was devasted in the August bombing, another damaged the Interior Ministry in eastern Baghdad, another hit the building of Fine Arts in Mansour near Zawraa in western Baghdad and the last attack hit the Labor and Social Affairs Ministry in a northeastern district of the capital.  This was the single most devastating of the five attacks killing 86 and wounding 159.   

Teheran seems to have established a two month bomb pattern; August-October-December which means the next attacks will be in February and with the security forces being infiltrated it will be more devastating and widespread than the ones today.  The next attacks could lead to demands for a new government and for an end to any cooperation with Washington.  Today's bomb offensive was timed for the new announcement by Iraq's Parliament of an election date for March 6, 2010 and it seems Washington Ambassador Christopher Hill pressured a lot of the MPs to make the date in order to maintain the Pentagon troop withdrawal schedule for 2010.  But regular readers of this site know I have often warned Teheran does not want to see these 115,000 U.S. troops active in other regional theatres.

rfn=Riyadh -  "Shahram Amiri, Iran's nuclear scientist who had gone to Hajj in Saudi Arabia, was handed over to Washington."  YnetNews/Mehr/AFP report that was the announcement by Iran Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast on the scientist who appeared to have defected from Teheran.

rfn=Islamabad -  "Jones' message was that if Pakistan help wasn't forthcoming the United States will have to do it themselves."  WebIndia123 reports that was the announcement from a Pakistan official familiar with the deteriorating relations between Islamabad/Washington as attacks continue by militants inside Pakistan's northwest tribal area, attacks that now seem to be coming from Baluchistan province which borders Iran-Afghanistan.  The New York Times quoted U.S. officials, "The message did not amount to an ultimatum, but rather it was intended to prod a reluctant Pakistani military to go after Taliban insurgents in Pakistan who are directing attacks in Afghanistan."  Central Asia has become the proud hallmark of Washington's AFPAK strategy in its twisted "war on terror" driven by the colossal foreign policy myth that Bin Laden conducted the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center-Pentagon from here. 

Washington feels that is safer than blaming and attacking the real center of the planning Teheran.  And Teheran-Kabul-Islamabad let Washington entertain that myth and love to see the Pentagon chasing the Jihad around while Iran continues to make preparations for full scale war.  But Pakistan is not about to fight Washington's war therefore Islamabad-Teheran will increase their support for the Taliban and other Islamic militant units active in the area.  Islamabad only joined Washington's "war on terror" in order to receive massive financing and equipment like F-16s to engage its main enemy India.

night watch:  rfn=DAMASCUS -  "Iran and Syria are faced with common challenges therefore, their governments shoulder common responsibilities in that regard."  IRNA reports that was the announcement by Syria Prime Minister Mohammed Naji-Otari in Damascus during his meeting with Iran Energy Minister Majid Namjoo.  The "common challenges" are of course the common enemies of Israel and the military bases of the West in Iraq-Persian Gulf-South Lebanon and this is the second high level meeting in Damascus between Syria-Iran in less than a week.  I suspect these meetings indicate they have completed their preparations for the expanded regional war Teheran will use to not only remove the West's military presence from the region but to also keep the West on the defensive as Europe-U.S. are planning new economic sanctions.

rfn=Jerusalem -  During the war Teheran will have at its disposal the Hezbollah army which has become more powerful than ever since Iran first created it in 1982.  YnetNews reports Israel is fully aware of this as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remarked during the Knesset Monday meeting of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, "If in the past we considered Hezbollah as a sideline militia, today Hezbollah is the real Lebanon Army.  It has replaced the Lebanon Army as a significant force; it is arming and organizing as a real army.  The Lebanese government and Hezbollah are being interwoven in each other-and they will suffer the consequences of any violation against Israel."  This means of course the Israel Air Force (IAF) bombing campaign will be more extensive than in 2006 with government buildings and Lebanon Army bases attacked with the same intensity. 

Not only are Damascus-Teheran arming/training Hezbollah but are obliged to enter the war directly in the name of their 2006 security agreement signed just before fighting increased in late June that year.  Though there have been some reports recently Damascus is no longer eager for a direct war with Israel and that may be due to Israel's successful Operation Cast Lead Dec. 27-Jan. 18 in Gaza.  Iran has prepared a brigade size Rapid Deployment Force (RDF) which they will commit in the name of Palestinian people.  The outlandish remarks Iran had President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad make about destroying Israel was just a distraction, a publicity smokescreen.  There is no market for salt in the Dead Sea.  Teheran is more interested in controlling the oil in the Persian Gulf.

rfn=Kibbutz Alumim -  In Gaza the IDF will be confronted by Palestinian militants who have also been supplied with more powerful weapons and one was fired yesterday and landed in open fields near Kibbutz Alumim along the separation fence.  INN reports it was an S5K Russian made anti-tank missile which is usually fired from helicopters at ground targets.  The range is longer than previous anti-tank missiles Palestinians have used but its effectiveness is questionable because the S5K is not accurate when fired from the ground.

night watch:  rfn=ZAGREB -  "If the Republic of Srpska separates from Bosnia-Herzegovina, then the so called Croatia Republic would separate as well.  And that part would then join Croatia.  What would be left is a small Islamic country which would be surrounded by enemies.  Some people in Belgrade just cannot understand this."  That was the warning from Croatia President Stjepan Mesic in Zagreb speaking to B92 on his grave concerns for what President Mesic calls the "architecture" the boundaries of the divided multi-ethnic, multi-religious state of Bosnia-Herzegovina.  And what Mesic just described is almost an indentical sequence of events that caused the first series of wars in the former Yugoslavia in the early 1990s at the end of the Cold War.  At first six republics declared their independence from Yugoslavia-Belgrade in 1991 including Croatia with the fighting spreading the following year to Bosnia-Herzegovina which is mainly Muslim but with large Croatian/Serbian minorities.

It was a situation made for conflict which some governments in NATO-EU (European Union), both headquarted in Brussels, encouraged by first recognizing Slovenia-Croatia in 1991 then made the war in 1992 worse by enforcing an arms embargo on the Muslim government of Bosnia-Herzegovina in Sarajevo.  The embargo encouraged Serbian attacks which provided some NATO governments, led by London-Paris-Berlin then Washington-Rome to intervene by attacking the Bosnian-Serb community.  But it also allowed Teheran to lead the breaking of the embargo by sending Islamic fighters as Teheran established relations with every government in the former Yugoslavia in 1992, relations with still remain active.  Teheran even announced, when they established relations with Zagreb, that Croatia was Iran's "entry into Central Europe."

Though the fighting had ended in Bosnia-Herzegovina by 1996 the situation has remained tenuous due to the unstable three headed Presidency in Sarajevo, a rotation among Croatian/Serbian/Muslim leaders with the Serbian community represented by Prime Minister Milorad Dodik based in Banja Luka the capital of the Serbian Rebuplic of Srpska.  This is the area NATO bombed in 1994, and given the current statements by President Mesic some NATO governments will do so again soon.  Banja-Luka, eighty miles northwest of Sarajevo, has increased its military relations with a re-armed Belgrade, re-armed by Moscow and in 2006 Serbia signed security agreements with Greece-Iran, governments that are looking forward to a resumption of the war as Teheran realizes this is another regional theatre they can use to keep the West busy.

President Mesic stated his message to both the Croatian and Serbian communities in Bosnia-Herzegovina is that their government is in Sarajevo, but neither community seems to be listening which is why this area is more of a flashpoint than Kosovo 150 miles southeast of here-Sarajevo.  This is an explosive situation Belgrade actually understands quite well.  Mesic warned that other leaders in the area were encouraging a new division which always strikes a responsive cord due to the rampant nationalism unleashed by Yugoslavia's division.  "This ( status quo) should be done instead of giving them false hope.  The architecture of our region has ended, if someone was to change that architecture now, it could only be done through war." 

But changing "architecture" has been Brussels' lunatic sense of mission since the end of the Cold War.  Perhaps Teheran-Belgrade-Ankara-Athens have their own "architecture" in mind on their own war maps. 

rfn=Delhi -  "The Annual Summit is the principal mechanism for the advancement of our strategic partnership with Russia.  This is a partnership based on the solid foundation of long-standing friendship, deep mutual trust and strong convergence of interests."  IRNA reports that was the policy statement by India Prime Minster Manmohan Singh as he was leaving Delhi for a three day working visit to Moscow.  These strategic relations are, quite frankly, based on the mutual enemies of China and Iran, with both Beijing-Teheran in complete support of Islamabad's war preparations against Delhi revolving around Kashmir.  Moscow has always been Delhi's main ally due to the serious, historical Russia/China dispute along their border that erupted again the late 1950's right after China finished their new takeover of Tibet.

Beijing attempted to enforce its claim over India's northeast state of Arunachal Pradesh by invading for one month in Oct. 1962 but withdrew most likely in preparations for the border skirmishes with the Soviet Union that began in 1964.  The fighting was on a regimental scale and became so severe Russia came close to launching a nuclear attack on China in 1975.  Pressure from the West convinced Moscow not to attack China to that extent so instead the Soviet Union outflanked China by invading Afghanistan in 1979 and remained for ten years until a border agreement was signed by Moscow/Beijing in 1989.  By then an old enemy had re-emerged, radical Islam, led by Teheran as a result of the 1979 revolution under the Ayatollah Khomeini. 

Moscow realized it was an immediate threat to its Central Asian economic bases and in Russia's south and has been fighting groups in the Caucasus supported by Teheran since 1994.  But Beijing decided to work with radical Islam knowing it had the potential to weaken three of China's rivals, the West-India-Russia.  The three therefore have increased their military relations by selling and supplying India with some of the latest military technology.  Even Israel has increased its support after the Mumbai attack November 2008 in which one of the targets was a Jewish center.  While Prime Minister Singh is in Moscow Xinhua/Haaretz report the Chief of Staff of Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Lieutenant-General Gabi Ashkenazi has begun his visit to India.

night watch:  rfn=ISLAMABAD -  On extremely rare occasion one comes across an article written by a genuine expert on these international situations in strategic areas and one of those rare execeptions appeared today in Pakistan's Dawn newspaper written by Yousuf Nazar titled the "Axis of Trouble".  Nazar states that is the current situation in Pakistan in part due to the cooperation between Pakistan's military leadership and Washington in a war, internally-externally, which also benefits the religious extremists in Pakistan, especially the Mullahs who first educated the Taliban at the religious schools on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.  But at the same time they are fighting other Islamic groups which are less extreme and the Pakistan government.  The war in this Central-South Asia regional crossroads and crucible also benefits the military planners in Washington and the military leadership in Pakistan which Nazar writes depends on the "perpetuation of conflict in the region and the massive economic aid it receives from Washington."

He admits the business of Pakistan state politics has become a mafia enterprise, big money (business-drugs, land owners) interests, coupled with criminal networks.  At the same time Pakistan politics have been "demonised to such an extent only corrupt and incompetent individuals like Mr. Zardari, Mr. Nawaz Sharif or creations of the establishment like Altaf Hussain or Maulana Fazlar Rehman, only a few wish to navigate the treacherous and murderous waters of stormy Pakistan politics."  His article mentions Pakistan has had many elections since 1985 but almost nothing has changed.  That is because he mentions major forces in the country are seriously threatened by any change that would bring real democracy to the country.  That is not only true of the country's military government but also the nation's elite, which produces the government-buisness leadership networks, are resistant to any change in the power centers of the country. 

This is why after more than sixty years of independence eighty percent of the country's 170 million population live below the poverty line of $2 a day.  Change is not about to happen.  The religious extremists, even more extreme than the religious leadership in Qom, Iran, benefit from the failure of the mainstream political parties to provide real leadership which they have never done which is why the Army has always been regarded as the most responsible institution in the country.  And the Army's priority, as always, has been constant preparation for its next war with India that Islamabad has set the stage for by creating the Islamic uprising in Kashmir active since Nov. 1989.  The religious extremists were inspired by the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran led by the Ayatollah Khomeini but the reason it has had such a major impact in Pakistan has been due to the rampant corruption.  The level of corruption matches the level of extremism and no Muslim nation has been as corrupt as Pakistan.  Nazar's article states in so many ways Pakistan has ceased to function as a nation due to its internal wars and with Washington only working with the military leaders.

Pakistan's situation is caused by the self-serving conflicting interests within and the military's priority to work with Teheran-Beijing which also support Islamabad's war with India.  Pakistan's military leaders only supported Washington's "war on terror" and the laughable search for Bin Laden, in order to receive massive financing to purchase more equipment like F-16s for use against India as Pakistan permits the Pentagon to use some support facilities in the region.  Even though I think Pakistan is about to have its best war against India, due to support from Iran-China, that will only strengthen the power base of the ruling elites in the region known as Pakistan.  That is probably the reason Pakistan's military had militant groups in Kashmir assault the moderate Kashmir leader Fazal-Haq Qureshi Friday near his home.  Qureshi is an executive member of the All Parties Hurriyat (Freedom) Conference which though is a separatists movement wanting independence for Kashmir from India, Qureshi is against the violent uprising supported by Teheran-Islamabad.

Qureshi suffered serious head injuries and remains in critical condition in a hospital.  Last month he conducted secret negotiations in Delhi with India Home Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram.

Perhaps Iran's religious-military leadership has studied Pakistan's decision makers ability to use and foment crisis for the purpose of maintaining population control and a semblance of unity.

rfn=Nauzad -  In the meantime Xinhua reports 1,000 U.S. Marines and 150 Afghan soldiers have been a major assault in Nauzad, a town in the northern part of Helmand province which borders Pakistan.  The Pentagon has designated the offensive as Operation Cobra's Anger and it is an attempt to disrupt the Taliban supply lines from Iran-Pakistan.  They are attacking an enemy largely created by Washington.  Though the Afghan enemy existed before Washington's involvement the Pentagon-NATO war effort have increased support for the Taliban.

night watch:  rfn=ASHKHABAD -  A United Nations agency has just completed the installation of a seismic monitoring station on the Turkmenistan/Iran border in Ashkhabad the Turkmenistan capital just a few miles from the border.  YnetNews reports the station will be able to detect any secret nuclear tests conducted by Iran in violation of the resolution passed recently by the UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna.  Jerusalem Post reports the station has been designated PS44 and is part of the UN International Monitoring System (IMS) to detect nuclear explosions and tests around the world.  Those tests always register on the seismic scale.  In Oct. 2008 Teheran announced a 5.5 earthquake near Qeshm island in the Persian Gulf but according to INN it was actually an underground nuclear test and that Iran had done that before, conducted a nuclear test calling it an earthquake.

rfn=Teheran University -  The latest deadline Teheran will break will be at the end of this month with the West threatening more serious economic sanctions.  Teheran's real response will be in the nature of events and some could be just a few days away.  Not only because of the Damascus visit yesterday by Saeed Jalili the Secretary of the Iran Supreme National Security Council but also becaue of a statement/warning by Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati.  During his visit Jalili met Syria President Bashar Assad, Foreign Minister Walid Muallem and officials from Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad.  These meetings are planning sessions for increasing the fighting in the region which means Palestinian rocket fire is about to resume to force a new invasion into Gaza by the Israel Defense Force (IDF) then into Lebanon when Hezbollah attacks.

But because the dispute with the West over Iran's nuclear weapons production has reached a new level the next wave of fighting could engulf U.S. units in Iraq leading to attacks on the U.S.-British-French bases in the Persian Gulf.  And IRNA reports the Friday prayer leader, Ayatollah Jannati issued this enigmatic statement during his second sermon at Teheran University, "The student movement (on Dec. 7 Student Day) is anti-US in nature; certain people should not do anything that will please the U.S."  Ayatollah Jannati then justified anti-U.S. activity by stating the IAEA resolution against Iran and anti-Iran resolutions by the United Nations Security Council are all due to pressure from Washington.  Iran's government stages student demonstrations on Dec. 7 to commemorate the anniversary of the killing of three students that day in 1953 during an anti-U.S. demonstration.

rfn=Ankara Airport -  IRNA has just reported the Secetary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Saeed Jalili, has just been welcomed by officials in Turkey at Ankara's airport.  This is just one day after Jalili was in Damascus planning the expanded regional war with Syrian-Palestinian-Hezbollah officials.  Teheran intends to continue to force the West to respond defensively to events which means it is quite possible Iran wants heavy fighting to begin before the end of the month, before the West can apply more sanctions at the beginning of 2010.  And one of the regional theatres Teheran-Ankara plan to use to keep the West on the defensive is the Balkans, the former Yugoslavia.  Teheran signed a security agreement with Belgrade in 2006 and Turkey has also increased its strategic cooperation with Serbia.  Earlier this week the Serbia Parliament Speaker Slavica Dukic-Dejanovic was in Teheran meeting Ali Larijani the Majlis (Parliament) Speaker who stated relations between Iran-Serbia should be "further stimulated."  Jalili will meet Turkey Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the Premier's palace.

rfn=Washington -  "Al Qaida is providing them (Lashkar-i-Taiba) with targeting information and helping them in the plotting in India - clearly with the idea of provoking a conflict between India and Pakistan that will destabilize Pakistan."  Dawn reports that was the warning by U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates speaking to a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing.  Part of the warning I agree with but for obvious reasons Secretary Gates dares not mention that the real controller of Al Qaida is Teheran, that Bin Laden was never anything more than a video decoy.  Fear is the reason Washington blames Bin Laden which makes its policy mythological and serving Teheran's purpose of disinformation and wastes a lot of material and manpower chasing the Jihad.

But Teheran is definitely having Al Qaida work with the Pakistan-Kashmir militant unit Lashkar-i-Taiba which conducted the Mumbai attack November 2008 which came close to setting off the fourth war between Pakistan/India since their independence in 1947.  The attacks are part of Teheran-Islamabad's campaign of destabilization of India and are designed to force Delhi to use its hot pursuit policy and attack militant training bases inside Pakistan.  This is part of the Action Plan Pakistan President-General Pervez Musharraf presented to Teheran Feb. 2007.

rfn=Paris -  As part of the Strategic Dialogue between France-India WebIndia123 reports France Defense Minister Herve Morin has arrived in Delhi for a two day visit.  The France-India Strategic Dialogue was instituted in 1998 and involves: Research & Development, production of weapons systems, joint military exercises, counter mechanisms against international terrorism and the sharing of military technology.

night watch:  rfn=TEHERAN -  "The West's claim that Iran seeks nuclear weapons is a big lie...Iranian nation stays firm on its chosen path.  Parliament will review Iran's relations with those countries that voted for the recent resolution against us."  YnetNews/IRIB report that was the announcement and warning from Ali Larijani the Majlis (Parliament) Speaker.  This is a confrontation Teheran knew was inevitable and has been years in planning ever since it revived its nuclear industry in 1984 as it realized the full extent of its foreign policy meant (f)allout war with the West its main international rival.  At the same time B92 reports Larijani has been meeting with Serbia Parliament Speaker Slavica Dukic-Dejanovic and that the meeting is to have relations between Serbia-Iran "further stimulated."  The timing of her arrival is no coincidence since Teheran realized in 1992 it could use fighting in the former Yugoslavia to keep the West busy and on the defensive by sending Islamic fighters to Bosnia-Herzegovina and establish relations with every government that emerged from the divided state including Croatia.

Dukic-Dejanovic also met Iran Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki and I suspect the two reviewed the 2006 security agreement both governments signed.  One of the flashpoints Belgrade-Teheran can use to set off the next wave of war is Kosovo whose independence NATO headquarters in Brussels supports.  Events are Teheran's real response and while that fighting is being planned relations will be ended over the nuclear issue.  Athens also signed a security agreement with Belgrade in 2006 and Serbia has been rearmed by Russia since the NATO 78 day air campaign in 1999.

rfn=Damascus -  Saeed Jalili, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, has arrived in Damascus and annouced at a joint press conference with Syria Foreign Minister Walid Muallem that proposals to end disputes with Israel have reached a "dead end."  YnetNews reports Jalili announced the only way to solve problems with Israel is through "resistance" which means attacks by Palestinian militants and Hezbollah with direct support from Damascus-Teheran.  Since 2004 Teheran has used Damascus as its main base in the region for planning war with Israel through Palestinian units and Hezbollah which is why Hamas' main leader Kahled Meshaal has been based here.

Jalili will also meet with representatives of Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad.  Teheran's "solution" to the region's problems has always been war, the only question being the extent of Iran's direct involvement.  Several years ago Iran paraded a brigade size Rapid Deployment Force during its annual military parade and this will probably be the unit Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad stated will march with the Palestinians.  Iran will probably attempt to get them into Syria in the name of their regional security agreement they made official in June 2006 just before fighting erupted late that month in Gaza then in mid-July when Teheran had Hezbollah stage an ambush across the Lebanon border. 

Iran really studied the month long fighting and used it to prepare for an expanded regional war Teheran now seems ready for.  In an attempt to prevent Allied cooperation Teheran will have Hamas again attack the Rafah Terminal on the Gaza/Egypt border forcing Egypt into the war and have militant groups in Iraq re-surface.  The 13,000 European troops in south Lebanon, serving under the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon will also come under attack.

rfn=Sayyeda Zainab -  Accompanying Saeed Jalili to Damascus was an explosion targeting a bus of Shia pilgrims in the Sayyeda Zainab district of the capital.  Dawn/Reuters report, according to eyewitnesses, "Body parts are still scattered around the bus."  Xinhua reports, according to a Syria news website, a dozen people were killed and the photos on Xinhua make a mockery of Syria's government saying the damage was caused by an exploding tire at a gasoline station.  The explosion was near a Shia religious shrine and I suspect it will be blamed on Israel.

night watch:  rfn=ISFAHAN -  "Under pressure of a few superficially powerful countries...the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) passed an illegal resolution against the Iranian nation.  The Zionist regime (Israel) and its (Western) backers can not do a damn thing to stop Iran's nuclear work."  YnetNews reports those were just a few of the defiant statements made by Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad speaking from Isfahan to a cheering crowd of thousands over live television.  On cue the crowd chanted "Death to America-Death to Israel" as Iran's military-religious leadership deliberately increase the crisis atmosphere as it prepares for full scale war.  It is an atmosphere they maintain as a unifying influence, a mechanism of population control.  President Ahmadinejad continued, "Sanctions will have no effect.  Aggressors will regret their actions as soon as they put their finger to the trigger."

The President continued (Dawn/AP), "I declare here that with the grace of God, the Iranian nation will produce 20 per cent (enriched uranium) and anything it needs itself.  We told them, give us 20 per cent fuel (in exchange).  But then they started adding conditions.  So we said, if you want to give us fuel we'll take it.  If not, then fine and goodbye."  RIA/Fars news agency report the President then stated Iran will no longer report to the IAEA on its nuclear projects.  Russia was also attacked in the speech for supporting the IAEA vote Nov. 27 that demanded Iran end its uranium enrichment for nuclear weapons, warheads that can now be delivered on Iran's longest range ballistic missiles, the result of successful satellite tests Iran has been conducting for more than a year.

Swissinfo/Reuters report analysts have warned Iran could be using an array of above-board civilian enrichment plants to camouflage one or two small covert sites geared to enrich uranium to high purity suitable for nuclear warheads.  And a Russian source stated Iran announcing the construction of ten more enrichment plants did "not add optimism to the talks."  The inspections conducted by the Vienna based IAEA for the past several years may have been nothing more than guided tours of facilities Teheran wanted them to see and it has long been suspected there were unknown facilities never inspected.  President Ahmadinejad said in his speech, "Russia made a mistake by backing the anti-Iran resolution and we believe that their analysis in this regard was incorrect."

rfn=Brussels -  But the Kremlin's analsyis is based on the economic reality of the massive and historical economic connections between Russia-Western Europe, which is still the main purchasing agent of Russia's raw materials which finances Russia's economy.  Both of them are seriously threatened by Teheran which seeks to become the main voice in the world's energy markets and that threat could be the main topic, perhaps the only topic, on the agenda during the Russia-NATO Council meeting in Brussels Friday.  RIA reports Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced, "As for the Russia-NATO Council meeting, it's still on and will take place on Friday."  Iran has missiles that can reach Brussels.  This is the first meeting of the Council since August 2008 after the brief war between Russia/Georgia.  The Georgia government in Tbilisi is supported by Teheran in its attempt to disrupt the flow of raw materials from the Caucasus to Europe. 

Russia's preparations are being directed by the Kissinger-Primakov Strategic Working Group (SWG) instituted two years ago.  But the West should have deployed more than former U.S. Secretary of State Dr. Henry Kissinger to secure resources.  If NATO had been in the Caucasus seriously, when fighting erupted Dec. 1994 between Russia and Islamic units in Chechnya supported by Teheran, war with Iran would have ended before 2000.  But instead in 1994 NATO proudly and stupidly began its air campaign against Bosnian Serbs.  NATO and the West are completely out of position.  That is why the only response the West can make to Iran is defensive and Teheran knows it.

rfn=Ankara -  Hurriyet reports Turkey Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will be in Washington next week for a meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama at the White House and it is quite possible Washington may attempt to woo Ankara away from its growing strategic cooperation with Teheran.  Ankara, which likes to see Turkey as the center of everything, is flattered by this attention and the wooing could mean the Pentagon selling to Turkey an advanced air/missile defense system the PAC-3 by Lockheed-Martin and Raytheon.  But this will not change Ankara's direction which fully supports the concept of Foreign Minister Professor Ahmet Davutoglu outlined in his book "Strategic Depth" which advocates Turkey exert major influence in every region around Turkey instituting "order" Ankara's rule which matches Teheran's opposition to the West.

rfn=Belgrade -  "It is well known that in the last decade of the last century we had a lot of problems, but it is also well known that in the last few years the (Defense) Ministry has been making big steps to stabilize relations between Serbia and the U.S."  B92 reports that was a statement to Serbian and American journalists by Serbia Defense Minister Dragan Sutanovac after meeting U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates.  Defense Minister Sutanovac will have meetings with the Senate, Congress, White House and the Ohio National Guard as part of an attempt by Washington to increase military cooperation.  Washington-Brussels are concerned about Belgrade improving relations with Ankara and the 2006 security agreements Serbia signed with Greece-Iran.  Kosovo is one of the potential flashpoints for another war in the former Yugoslavia and it would trap NATO-European Union units in quite a crossfire.  Teheran intends to use the former Yugoslavia as another regional theatre to keep the West busy as in Iraq-Afghanistan.

rfn=Teheran -  "After carrying out an investigation and interrogation of the five British sailors, it became clear that their illegal entry was a mistake.  After obtaining necessary guarantees it was decided to release them."  Jerusalem Post/AP that was a statement released by the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps concerning the five British yachtsmen detained Nov. 25.  I suspect this incident was used to send a message to the West that Iran is now prepared to confront what is calls "foreign forces" in the Persian Gulf.

night watch:  rfn=LONDON -  According to Al Jazeera correspondent in London, Tim Friend, the current position of the British government over the arrest of five British yachtsmen November 25, "is that this is very much in the Iranians' hands now.  And it will be up to them how they decide to play it.  It couldn't have come at a worse time in terms of relations between UK and Iran."  That is exactly why Teheran timed this for the latest dispute between Iran and the West over its uranium enrichment.  The arrest was made Nov. 25 just before the IAEA vote in Vienna which demanded Iran end its nuclear production and this also comes as military intelligence reports Iran has increased the firepower of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN).  PressTV/Fars news agency quoted the commander of the IRGCN Ali Reza Tang-siri as saying it was the duty of the Revolutionary Guards to "confront foreign forces in the Persian Gulf."

Obviously Teheran does not want his duty to end here as this signals further confrontation to come in one of the major fronts of World War III as Iran attempts to control the Persian Gulf and become the main voice in the world energy market.  But for the now the dispute is still mainly diplomatic as Britain Foreign Secretary David Miliband stated over the BBC that he expects the matter to be "sorted out promptly."  That is not going to happen.  Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaie, Chief of Staff for Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced, "Judiciary will decide about the five...naturally our measures will be hard and serious if we find out they had evil intentions."  That is exactly what Teheran intends to find including producing all the evidence to prove it.  The five are already being charged with "entering Iran illegally."  In the meantime students have been ordered by the government to stage demonstrations in front of Britain's Embassy in Teheran.

Iran's military-religious leadership uses and causes crisis to maintain unity in the country and never intended to end their regime in a blaze of peace, quite the opposite, and they have maintained an atmosphere of crisis ever since the June 12 elections.  And Britain was one of the governments Iran accused of causing post-election demonstrations.  Teheran has been preparing for major war with the West ever since the end of the 1980-88 Iran/Iraq War.  The recent air defense maneuvers may have been the final indication Iran is now ready and there is no flashpoint more economically sensitive than the Persian Gulf.

rfn=Line of Actual Control -  "The construction work at the road has been stopped by the Chinese army saying that the area belonged to them and no road will be constructed.  The road was well within Indian territory."  Dawn/Reuters Television report that was the announcement by Tsering Dorjay Chief Executive Councillor of the Ladakh Autonomous Hill Development Council.  The Indians were constructing a five mile (8 km) road along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Kashmir near the Chinese border.  This area also witnessed heavy fighting in October 1962 when Chinese troops invaded here and in the northeast India state of Arunachal Pradesh for one month.  This is why Beijing established strategic relations with Islamabad as far back as 1951 and has been the main supporter of both Iran-Pakistan's nuclear ballistic missile programs. 

Negotiations between Delhi/Beijing over these border issues have never made any progress and China revived its claim in 2006.  Both Teheran-Beijing support the Action Plan of Pakistan General Pervez Musharraf which he presented to Teheran in 2007.

night watch:  rfn=TEHERAN -  "We have determined the locations of five sites upon the President's decree.  Our enrichment sites will be constructed in the heart of mountains.  The West adopted an attitude toward Iran which made the Iranian government to pass the ratification on construction of sites similar to the Natanz enrichment facility."  PressTV reports that was the announcement (excuse) by Ali-Akbar Salehi the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran as one of the responses to the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) vote last week that called for the end to the construction of the new Fordo site near Qom.  The Fordo site was at the center of the negotiations in Vienna in October and it is doubted if the site is all that new and I suspect these new sites Teheran is announcing were not determined on the spur of the moment because of the latest IAEA vote but that these sites were planned quite some time ago.  The West-Russia are showing such concern now because Teheran has developed ballistic missiles with the range to reach the West as Allied governments finally realize what Iran's military-religious leaders had Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad state about destroying Israel was just a distraction, a publicity smokescreen.

rfn=Teheran -  A more serious statement will be made by President Ahmadinejad on Tuesday as IRNA reports he will address the nation live over State television on major regional-international issues.  I would not be surprised if Ahmadinejad announces Teheran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which they signed under the Shah of Iran in 1968, as well as justifying the new nuclear sites which may have already been under construction.  A few months ago this site linked to a picture of the President surrounded by Chinese construction workers in front of a road leading into a mountain tunnel.

rfn=Bandar Abbas -  "Overall Iran's development program has strengthened its naval capabilities, yielding increases in the country's inventory of small boats, mines, anti-ship cruise missiles, torpedoes and air defense equipment."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the summary of a report by the U. S. Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) on the results of Iran's two year program to upgrade its naval units, both the conventional Islamic Republic of Iran Navy (IRIN) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN).  According to the study Teheran can now seriously consider either closing or controlling the Strait of Hormuz through which passes 30 percent of the world's oil.  Since closing would also mean economic consequences for Iran then I assume Teheran will decide to attempt to control it and allow oil for countries that have supported them, China, to continue to receive oil shipments.

Beijing is one of the main reasons Teheran has been able to upgrade its naval forces including anti-ship cruise missiles like the Iranian built Kowsar which is based on the Chinese Silkworm.  The new capability means the IRIN can operate far beyond the Persian Gulf and the IRGCN now possesses extremely fast attack boats that can make the speed of 60-70 knots.  Their designs are based not only on China-North Korea technology but also the designs of Italian speedboat maker Fabio Buzzi, designs Iran began to purchase and study in the late 1990s.  Teheran's naval reorganization began in 2007 as Iran began to base more units beyond the Strait into the Gulf of Oman near Pakistan's border.  Though the new vessels are small, only 56 feet (17 meters) the ONI states they carry "serious firepower" with their anti-ship missiles and torpedoes which enable the IRGCN to engage in flexible, tactical, asymmetrical warfare.

Beijing has supported every major weapons development in Teheran for the past twenty-five years, including Iran's nuclear/ballistic missile programs, because they have the potential to weaken three of China's rivals, the West-India-Russia.

rfn=Jabalia -  The Israel Defense Force (IDF) have just conducted a major raid into northeast Gaza east of Jabalia into Abu Saffeya in response to rocket fire from Palestinian militants.  Xinhua reports the IDF units were supported by armor including armored bulldozers which leveled the area.  This is one of the largest raids since Israel conducted its highly successful Operation Cast Lead Dec.27-Jan. 18.

rfn=Islamabad -  IRNA reports Pakistan Prime Minister Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani will visit Berlin-London over the next four days.  I suspect this is in response to some of the latest developments in South Asia.  Only last week the head of the India Army General Deepak Kapoor announced India will become involved in a limited nuclear war with Pakistan.  And almost the very next day Prime Minister Gilani was given command control over Pakistan's nuclear weapons since he has always been on intimate terms with the country's military leadership.  This perhaps makes his visits to Berlin-London more in the nature of a summons since both Germany-Britain are heavily involved economically in the region and have military connections with both Pakistan-India.

Prime Minister Gilani will first arrive in Berlin to meet President Horst Koehler and Chancellor Angela Merkel then in London he will meet Prime Minister Gordon Brown and Foreign Secretary David Miliband in addition to other senior officials in both countries.  South Asia is now in the dry season which makes it easier for major fighting to begin, the season will extend into April.  Pakistan is believed to possess 70-80 nuclear warheads, possibly even more than India.  Fortunately nothing works as well as advertised, not all bombs and missiles will work.  Guidance systems are not faultless and warheads can be a dud, including a conventional bomb or shell.

The 1971 war between India/Pakistan, their third since the 1947 independence, began in December.

night watch:  rfn=TEHERAN -  "The resolution aims to counter the rising tide of U.S. and British plots against Iran and also to raise world awareness about the numerous cases of human rights abuses by Downing Street and the White House."  PressTV reports that was the statement released by Iran's Maljis (Parliament) just a couple of days after the Vienna based United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) passed a resolution against the Iran nuclear base inside a mountain near Qom.  Jerusalem Post/AP report the statement added the $20 million will be used to "support progressive currents that resist illegal activities by the governments of the U.S. and British."  There was no mention of the militant groups that will receive more financing but I suspect the action of the Taliban will increase as will attacks inside Iraq. 

This is just one of the many reponses Teheran has been planning as a result of their standoff with the West-Russia on Iran's continued uranium enrichment for nuclear weapons.  Another response, PressTV reports, is the announcing of the construction of ten new uranium enrichment facilities similar in size to the one at Natanz and the construction of them is to begin in two months.  This comes as Iran's leadership is denouncing the West for the IAEA resolution and also singles out Moscow-Beijing for being "dishonest" in supporting the vote.  Most of the statements are being made by Ali Larijani the Majlis Speaker.  Jerusalem Post reports he warned, "If the Western pressure continues to use the ridiculous policy of sticks and carrots, Teheran too will form a new kind of relationship with the West."

Swissinfo/Reuters report Ministers in the Majlis were especially critical of Moscow-Beijing for supporting the saying, "Iranian leaders have invested heavily in China and Russia in the past years, but every time the two countries have taken advantage of Iran for their own interests", ran the editorial in Iran News.  Moscow's support was never genuine since Russia/Iran have been fighting for control over the resources of the Caucasus since 1994 and Moscow only said great things about Iran publicy as a diplomatic front.  And Moscow is not about to ignore its enormous economic obligations to the West in the form of a consistent supply of raw materials which has been the foundation of Russia's economy for more than a century.  Perhaps that is a relationship Iran's leadership is unaware of. 

In Beijing's case China's Central Government realizes they should now pretend to support the West since they realize the worst (war) is going to happen and Beijing has done enough to support Iran's nuclear-ballistic missile programs in order to weaken three of China's rivals, the West-India-Russia.

rfn=Moscow -  Aware that Teheran has been especially critical of Russia, Moscow has sent its Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko to Teheran Sunday.  IRNA reports Shmatko is at the head of a delegation apparently only for a meeting of the Teheran-Moscow Joint Economic Commission but this timing is no coincidence.  This new level of the crisis means economic cooperation will be suspended for the duration of the war.  Shmatko will be meeting with Iran Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki and Oil Minister Masoud Mir-Kazemi.

night watch:  rfn=VIENNA -  "This resolution will of course damage the existing environment of cooperation with the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency)."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the response by Iran Envoy to the Vienna based United Nations agency Ali Asghar Soltanieh.  Teheran's reaction follows the 25 to 3 vote by the IAEA Board of Governors due to Teheran having concealed the mountain nuclear facility Fordo.  What is remarkable about this vote is the support not only from Moscow but also from Beijing.  There were six abstentions (Afghanistan-Brazil-Egypt-Pakistan-South Africa-Turkey).  Cuba-Malaysia-Venezuela opposed the resolution and only Azerbaijan missed the vote.  This is the most critical vote since February 2006 which was caused by Iran's uranium enrichment and it began three rounds of sanctions by the UN Security Council which have proved completely ineffective in ending Iran's nuclear weapons production.

Jerusalem Post/AP report Soltanieh stated during a closed door meeting, "Neither resolutions of the Board of Governors, nor those of the United Nations Security Council...neither sanctions nor the threat of military attack can interrupt peaceful nuclear activities in Iran, even a second."  U.S. Envoy Glyn Davies warned, "This is a signal that patience is running out.  We can't continue talks for talks sake.  We can't have round after round of fruitless negotiations, circular negotiations that don't get us where we want to get."  The resolution implies a fourth round of sanctions will be applied most likely before the year is over and these will be the most severe since it will come with the support from Moscow and Beijing.  Russia has already been applying sanctions in the form of not completing the Bushehr nuclear facility on the Persian Gulf and refusing to sell Iran the advanced S-300 air defense system.  Beijing however has been shipping 30-40 thousand of barrels of gasoline a day to enable Iran to withstand energy sanctions.  Pressure from the West-Russia should end that support.

rfn=Paris -  With the West-Russia realizing a peaceful resolution to Iran's nuclear weapons program is impossible France24 is reporting during the two day visit to Paris by Russia Prime Minister Vladimir Putin France agreed to sell Russia the second largest ship in France's navy.  The 20,000 ton, 600 feet long amphibious warship Mistral which can carry helicopters, 1,000 troops, landing craft and tanks.  It has so many different functions it has been called the "Swiss Army knife".  The commander of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, Admiral Vladimir Vyssotski said if Russia had the Mistral during the August 2008 fighting with Georgia the Black Sea Fleet could have deployed its units within 40 minutes instead of the 26 hours it took.  Paris has also permitted Russia to have the license to manufacture four more in what is obviously a major sign of support for Moscow's effort to restore its control over the oil/gas resources of the Caucasus and their exports to industrial concerns in the West.

Teheran first opposed Russia's control by supporting Islamic groups in the North Caucasus republics of Chechnya-Dahgestan since 1994 and continues to oppose Moscow by supporting the Georgia government in Tbilisi.  Despite the West publicly opposing Russia's war last year, privately they actually support Moscow and realize this is the only front where Iran can be attacked directly.  These moves are being directed by the Kissinger-Primakov Strategic Working Group (SWG) formed two years ago with the arrival of former U.S. Secretary of State Dr. Henry Kissinger into Moscow April 2007 to work with former Russia Premier Yevgeny Primakov.

rfn=Teheran - 2010 is shaping up to be quite a year, a decisive one in World War III, and to confront these military challenges Teheran has just completed its five day Asemane Velayat 2 air defense maneuvers which covered a third of the country's land mass.  Xinhua/IRNA report spokesman for the maneuvers, Brigadier-General Ali Moqiseh announced all the anti-aircraft sytems and air units, Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Regular Units, performed successfully.  General Moqiseh stated enemy reconnaissance units were confronted successfully using state of the art missile systems:  medium range Hawk, SAM-6, Skyguard high-energy laser defense system, Oerlikon anti-aircraft machine guns and 23 mm cannon.

Air Force fighter bombers entered enemy zones and caused electronic disruption.  Significantly Iran was able to test fire its upgraded TOR M1 anti-aircraft missle system which was purhased from Russia.  Fars News reports IRGC Air Force Brigadier General Amir-Ali Hajizadeh announced, "Over the past two years, Iranian experts increased the range of the missile defense system...to 35,000 feet.  Considering the fact that most warplanes fly at the altitude of 25,000 to 35,000 feet the new system will have a proper coverage to deal with them."  Iran has obviously been monitoring NATO's air operations in Afghanistan.

night watch:  rfn=TEHERAN -  "Throughout the maneuvers the hypothetical enemy...sought to despatch its stealth bombers and fighter jets to the country's sensitive areas.  Our defense brigades managed to thwart the attack by using defense-in-depth strategies, thus preventing the aggressor through several layers of defense from reaching the area."  PressTV reports that was the statement from Brigadier General Ali Moqiseh the Iranian officer in command of the units which protect Iran's nuclear facilities and they will be the first targets by Allied aircraft.  Teheran realizes they will soon provide Allied governments reasons to attack Iran when Teheran has war increase in Iraq-Afghanistan and also in the former Yugoslavia where Iran can use its 2006 security agreement with Serbia.  These maneuvers are to end tomorrow and I suspect they signal Iran's readiness to go beyond supporting groups and occasional attacks in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Teheran will also have Palestinian units and Hezbollah keep Israel busy to reduce any chance of combined Allied operations against Iran.  The expanded regional war, what Teheran calls "war scenarios", could begin with new rocket fire from Gaza to force another Israeli offensive.  Hezbollah now has an arsenal of 40,000 rockets, in 2006 it had only 16,000, and in September Iran tested every variety of missiles/rockets in its arsenal, most of which will target Pentagon bases in Iraq and NATO bases in Afghanistan.

rfn=Islamabad -  Pakistan Foreign Office has announced India is preparing for a limited nuclear war with Pakistan.  The Pakistan Tribune reports that was based on statements from India Army Chief General Deepak Kapoor as he addressed a defense seminar in India during which he announced a limited nuclear war with Pakistan was "very much a reality in South Asia."  The reason why I take General Kapoor's statement seriously is because it was India who first set off the nuclear explosions in May 1998 just a few months after the BJP party, which formed India's new government that March, announced it was going to "nuclearize the subcontinent."  Pakistan responded with six explosions later in the month and now this statement from India's leading general as U.S. President Barack Obama hailed India Prime Minister Manmohan Singh as a "man of peace" during Singh's visit.

That may be true about Singh but not about a lot of India's religious-military-political establishment which is very proud of India's three victories over Pakistan since 1947.  And it has been admitted most of India's government is influenced by Hindu extremist organizations like the RSS which, although not a political party, control a lot of the ministers in Parliament and are actually suspected of having assassinated India's independence leader Mahatma Gandhi in 1948 as he attempted to end the first Pakistan/India war.  Every Indian leader learned from then that if he ever attempted to make an agreement with Pakistan over Kashmir then he would risk assassination and the spiritual descendants of those who killed Gandhi are very much in power.  This statement by General Kapoor is an admission of state policy and it is quite possible Delhi may assume the Prime Minister's visit to Washington reflects support from the Pentagaon for any military action planned by India against what Delhi-Washington now view as a common enemy.

Washington is fully aware Islamabad has used the billions of dollars in aid from the U.S. to prepare for its next war against India by increasing the Islamic uprising in Kashmir, therefore the U.S. may have given its approval for India to attack first.  Delhi came close to doing so after the attack on Mumbai last November.  I always thought nuclear weapons in World War III would be first used in South Asia.

rfn=Moscow -  Russia has found some military leaders in China it can work with despite the continued breakdown of authority by the Central Government in Beijing.  Xinhua reports Russia Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov has been meeting a military delegation from China headed by the Vice-Chairman of China's Central Military Commission General Guo Boxiong on a five day visit to sign agreements on military cooperation.  Serdyukov-Boxiong may realize there are other disturbances coming inside China's current boundaries like the one this past July in East Turkestan and with the mineral resources in the region Moscow may want to assist the ability of some Chinese military units to retain some degree of control irrespective of Beijing. 

It is significant these agreements are being signed with a General and not China's Foreign or Defense Minister or even with the President/Prime Minister of China.  Plus the units under General Boxiong's command will not be used in any invasion of India one of Moscow's most important strategic partners.

night watch:  rfn=WHEELER ISLAND -  "The liftoff and the first stage separation was smooth.  But it faltered just before the second stage separation and behaved erratically, deviating from its coordinated path.  Further analysis to ascertain the cause is ongoing."  PressTV reports that was the announcement by an unnamed official with India's Defense Ministry speaking to the Times of India concerning the failure of the night test firing of the Agni II Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM).  The test was conducted at the Integrated Test Range (ITR) at Wheeler island in the Bay of Bengal off Orissa state.  The Agni II has a range of 1,560 miles (2,500 km) and is meant to attack India's enemies beyond Pakistan, Iran-China.  The missile can carry a warhead, conventional/nuclear of 2,200 pounds (1,000 kg). 

But this failure, on perhaps the eve of the fourth war between India/Pakistan, could not come at a worse time for Delhi because I suspect Teheran-Beijing have completed their preparations to intervene in support of Islamabad.  But at the same time I am not surprised at the missile's technological problems since that is typical of guidance systems no matter how far advanced and this missile was first fired April 11, 1999.  Which means that after ten years a reliable guidance system has yet to be found and this problem is not unique to India.  Every nation, and its government-industrial services which design, test and produce missile systems have the same problems with reliability even in perfect weather.  As this site has said so often nothing works as well as advertised.

rfn=Westminster -  "What we are committed to, and what I believe the British general public can expect from us is a guarantee to be thorough, to be impartial, to be objective and fair.  As I have said before, we are not a court of law nor are we an inquest nor indeed a statutory inquiry and our process will reflect that difference.  No one is on trial here.  We can't determine guilt or innocence.  Only a court can do that.  But I make a commitment here that once we get to our final report, we will not shy away from making criticisms, whether of institutions or processes or individuals, where they are warranted."  Dawn/AFP reports that was the opening statement (excuse) by Sir John Chilcot just before hearings began Tuesday at the Queen Elizabeth II Conference Center in Westminister concerning the suspicious decision making beginning in 2000 on the reasons (fabrications) used to conduct the 2003 war against Saddam Hussein in Iraq.

The only reliable thing about this five member inquiry is that it admits it is not a serious inquest or investigation and if not that then what?  It is a pretense, a show trial of explanations to placate a disbelieving public six years after the fact of the most suspicious decision making in Britain's modern history and what is more important the inquiry does not dare go into the real reason Saddam Hussein was left in Baghdad after the 1990-91 Gulf War.  Feb. 1991 CNN showed the reason, the London branch office of the San Francisco based construction firm Bechtel Group, invited to Iran.  Bechtel constructs military bases and went through its London office because Britain's establishment decided to have no embargo against Iran in order to make an enormous amount of money constructing underground bases for them and obviously there were those in Washington who agreed to go along.

It was not just CNN which mentioned the real reason.  When the Gulf War was ending former U.S. Secretary of State Dr. Henry Kissinger was on the ABC Sunday news program This Week and he mentioned he was "worried about a deal that will cause a worse war a few years later."  Dr. Kissinger realized what London-Washington had done, they sold Teheran their foreign policy.  This was an extension of the 1987 Iran Contra scandal when the fast buck Reagan Administration was found selling weapons to Iran during the eight year Iran/Iraq War 1980-88 as were major governments in the West.  The eight year war was often called a weapons dealer dream and the world realized they could make more money arming Iran than Iraq which shifted a lot of the world's decisions in Teheran's favor.

London-Washington and the West have dealt themselves into a defeat.  A new Iraq war is about to begin and not long after Teheran completes its Air Defense maneuvers on Thursday.  Iran's mililtary is preparing to provide the West-Israel-Russia with reasons to attack Iran and the subterranean facilities constructed by Bechtel Group courtesy of the servile, available London branch office.  And what is even more insulting is these hearings are to last six months with the findings not completed until late 2010 or early 2011.  By that time of course war with Iran would have overshadowed the inquiry and blown it into irrelevancy.

rfn=Mobile -  "Monsieur, along with his co-conspirator (Dora) Fotouhi are experienced arms dealers who have been actively working with the Iranian government to procure military items for the Iranian government."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was a statement from the U.S. Justice Department District Court in Mobile, Alabama after Jacques Monsieur pleaded guilty to violation of the Arms Export Act by attempting to sell engines for Iran's F-5 fighter jet and C-130 troop carrier aircraft, both of which were sold to Iran before the 1979 Islamic revolution led by the Ayatollah Khomeini.  Monsieur was arrested in August after having contacted an undercover agent in February.  The parts were to first go to Colombia then to the United Arab Emirates before their final destination in Iran.  Everyone knows Jihad pays well.  Corruption is Teheran's greatest weapon.

night watch:  rfn=ANDREWS AIR FORCE BASE - "Pakistan has nothing to fear from India.  It's a tragedy that Pakistan has come to the point of using terror as an instrument of state policy.  We have been the victims of Pakistan, aided, abetted and inspired terrorism for nearly 25 years.  We would like the United States to use all its influence with Pakistan to desist from that path."  Al Jazeera reports those were the words of India Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in an interview with Newsweek/Washington Post before he arrived at Andrews Air Force Base near Washington Sunday afternoon as he began his four day visit.  This is part of not only the serious regional rivalry between India/Pakistan for control over Muslim majority Kashmir or their new battle front for influence in Afghanistan but also who can receive more military-foreign aid from Washington.

Prime Minister Singh may be under the impression he can convince Washington to end its cooperation with Islamabad but the mindset at the White House-Pentagon is their "Af-Pak" policy which Washington pursues and promotes with missionary zeal beginning with the previous adminstration under President George W. Bush.  It is a zeal that has been at the center of Washington's foreign policy self-promotion since President Harry Truman, under instructions from industrial services connected with the military, led the U.S. into the Cold War right after World War II (1939-45).  All the U.S. Congress knows is war is good for the military industrial services/energy business and they are obliged to come up with something in their helter skelter planning, to take advantage of any conflict going on in the world Washington may find profitable to become involved.  The Pentagon is dedicated to finding small wars and extending them for as long as possible while it is deathly afraid of a major war which attacking Iran after 9/11 would have meant.  Since the September 2001 it has become the war on terror in Afghanistan (finding Bin Laden) which Islamabad quickly joined in order to receive more F-16s which can carry a nuclear bomb and not for use against the Taliban.

This has caused Delhi to accuse the U.S. of favoritism and Washington has responded by signing a nuclear energy deal with India and increasing its strategic planning.  Even though it will come to nothing Singh wants to remind Washington they are fighting the same enemy, Islamic extremism.  In the meantime economic relations between the U.S. and India will continue to increase and when the smoke clears from the fourth war between Pakistan/India the investments will remain.  Islamabad is fully aware Bin Laden can't arrange anything like flight school train