night watch:  rfn=DOUMA -  "Groups of deserters took control of all districts in the town of Douma...after fierce fighting. (france24/afp)  Dissident groups withdrew from the town and returned to their bases."  Al-Arabiya reports that was the announcement by Rami Abdel Rahman, head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) based in London speaking to AFP.  At first it was suspected the dissident forces withdrew in anticipation of an assault by forces still loyal to Bashar al-Assad but Hivin Kako, SOHR spokeswoman, told the BBC that the only forces left in Douma were police, "which play a very basic role." (asharq al-awsat/afp) Finding forces loyal to the Assad regime seems to be increasingly difficult as sources, close to events on the ground, have informed Tariq Alhomayed of Asharq al-Awsat that the only units the regime is fully army are units closest to the regime.  The Fourth Division, headed by Assad's brother Maher and the Republican Guard.

And both of those units are reported to be in a state of exhaustion as mentioned in Tariq's article Syria's Benghazi's, "Today the Syrian revolutionaries are pursuing a strategy that seems smart and effective so far, namely the search for a Syrian Benghazi or as a source close to what is happening on the ground in Syria told me, the rebels are 'searching for multiple Benghazi's not just one.'  These could be Homs, Zabadani and others which the rebels consider to be liberated cities."  Significantly, the regime's withdrawal from these cities came as a result of negotiations with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) now believed to number more than 40,000.  "Sources indicate that the al-Assad regime is intentionally reducing the armament of its official army out of fear of members defecting and taking their weapons with them."

"A source told me that in the beginning, members of the army were fighting, then there was a process of surrender or defections after the battle heated up but what is happening today is quite different, with the source saying that once the army was besieged by the rebels and the FSA, you could hear 'crying and begging from members of the army loyal to al-Assad.'  The only earnest armament process is taking place with members of Maher al-Assad's Fourth Division and the Republican Guard, which are both exhausted and cannot be present in all Syrian areas."  What the opposition now has in mind is to, "Unite the separated areas in one line or under one context, to serve as a buffer zone before the intervention of any third party...The facts on the Syrian ground are moving much faster than the pace of Arab and international diplomacy."

"The importance of this matter increases when we consider the remarks by King Abdullah II (Jordan) who said that the coming weeks are crucial for Syria. (asharq al-awsat)  The Turks are repeating the same to their visitors and this assessement has also been declared by the Israelis!"

rfn=Persian Gulf -  HDN/Reuters the U.S. aircraft carrier USS Enterprise has just embarked from its port on the Atlantic Coast and is headed for the Persian Gulf expected to arrive by the spring.

night watch:  rfn=JERUSALEM -  "There is never a dull moment, that I can promise you."  HDN/AFP/AP report that was the realistic observation by Israel Defense Minister Ehud Barak during his meeting with the Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff General Martin Dempsey on a visit to Israel.  General Dempsey stated the U.S. and Israel, "Have many interests (targets) in common in the region in this very dynamic time and the more we can continue to engage each other the better off we'll all be."  We can read 'continue to engage each other' as the more we can engage in combined military operations against our enemies in the region the better for all our economic-security interests.  With the regime of Bashar al-Assad weakening by the day, due to more defections and areas of Syria now controlled by the opposition, it is quite possible Jerusalem-Washington and other Allied governments, are concentrating on the Syrian situation and removing Hezbollah in Lebanon which would be a major blow to Teheran in the region.

rfn=Moscow -  Under no circumstances could Teheran sit idly by and watch Bashar al-Assad/Hezbollah come under attack as the U.S. and other Allied governments, including Qatar, send military assistance to the opposition.  Before Assad is overthrown Teheran will order Hezbollah into action by attacking the European troops in South Lebanon.  Washington's main concern is of course resource security as is the case with Moscow over the resources of the Caucasus which has been at risk ever since fighting began in Chechnya December 1994 between Russia and Islamic groups.  Iran has supported those groups as it now supports the government of Georgia and to maintain the working relationship between Russia and the West former U.S. Secretary of State Dr. Henry Kissinger met Russia Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in Moscow. 

 Xinhua reports the two had a forty minute "private meeting" during which of course they were representing the private industrial/state industrial concerns at the center of their professional careers in established circles.  This is in acknowledgement 2012 will be a notable year in international relations, war with Iran directly.  This is an extension of Dr. Kissinger's arrival in Moscow April 2007 to co-chair the Strategic Working Group with former Russia Premier Yevgeny Primakov.  It was upgraded to the Defense Relations Working Group in 2010 when Russia's Defense Minster Anatoly Serdyukov visited Washington and the Pentagon that September (cfw).

rfn=Beijing -  In the face of all these moves by Allied governments Teheran sent (xinhua) Ali Baqeri, its Deputy Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, to Beijing to meet China Deputy Foreign Minister Wu Hailong.  Officially this is to discuss Iran's nuclear program, which Beijing had been the most important supporter of including development of Iran's nuclear ballistic missiles.  But China's Central Government sees the military hand writing on the wall that will disrupt the oil Beijing used to receive from Iran.  Teheran may want to reassure Beijing the oil will not be disrupted as Teheran sends out mixed signals (swissinfo/reuters).  Now Teheran is trying to say the naval presence of foreign warships is not an issue.  This may be in the hope that Bashar al-Assad/Hezbollah will occupy the attention of the West-Turkey for quite some time.  But with the rate of defections increasing and Hezbollah now isolated I will be surprised if eiither Assad or Hezbollah will be effective against the Syrian oppostion-Turkey and the military cooperation between Israel and the West.

night watch:  rfn=PARIS -  "We cannot accept the ferocious repression by the Syrian leadership at its people, a repression that has led the entire country into chaos, a chaos that will help extremists of all kinds."  Al-Arabiya/AFP reports that was the policy statement by France President Nicolas Sarkozy speaking to foreign Ambassadors as the President also expressed his concern the war in Syria could extend into Lebanon. (naharnet/afp)  This statement is significant because it was France which led the West's intervention into Libya by recognizing the opposition government in Benghazi.  Like Turkey, France has been a major supporter of the Syrian opposition including enabling the Syrian National Council (SNC) to first meet in Paris before becoming based in Istanbul.  And although France Foreign Minister Alain Juppe has stated the proposal by Qatar to send Arab troops into Syria is not feasible, Paris he said is meeting with the SNC.

rfn=Cairo -  And that may be why an SNC delegation, led by Burhan Ghaliun its leader, is headed to Cairo for the Arab League meeting of its Foreign Ministers this weekend to hear the report from the monitoring mission which a source close to the League admitted, "They are in a big mess." (al-arabiya) The mission was used as a front by the al-Assad regime as more than 500 people have been killed since the mission began December 26 with fifteen more killed today including (asharq al-awsat) in Aleppo, the commercial center of the country and second largest city.  There was even a violent confrontation between Security Forces and demonstrators in the Unversity's Science Faculty. (naharnet/afp) A Syrian General of the Military Intelligence was also killed Thursday by dissident troops in Hama who refused to fire on civilians.

The SNC released this statement which said it will "ask the head of the Arab League and Arab Foreign Ministers to transfer the file on Syria to the UN Security Council with the view to secure a decision to establish a buffer zone and a no-fly zone."  Burhan Ghaliun will also accuse the police state adminstration of Bashar al-Assad of committing genocide and war crimes. (asharq al-awsat) I suspect the statement was made under the advisement of France's Foreign Ministry and it is designed to encourage the Arab League to criticize and condemn the Assad regime's lack of cooperation in a way that will convince Moscow to agree the Syrian file should be transferred immediately to the Security Council.  From there a new vote will call for international recognition of the SNC and the Syrian opposition as the legitmate representatives of the Syrian people and that they should be given military support.

rfn=Teheran -  Iran's leadership is of course aware Western governments, and Turkey, may be planning direct intervention and thay may be why Brigadier-General Qasem Solemani, head of the Quds Force, the branch of the Revolutionary Guards that operate outside Iran, warned he was in control of South Lebanon (al-arabiya).  South Lebanon is the main base of support for Hezbollah the 40,000 member militia Iran established in 1982 and they are a direct threat to the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) which composes 12,000 troops mainly from Europe.  And they are prepared to operate in alliance with the Israel Defense Force which will be invading Lebanon when the war expands beyond Syria.  It is General Solemani's hope Assad-Hezbollah can attract enough attention that it will reduce the number of combined Allied operations against Iran's nuclear-ballistic missile facilities.

night watch:  rfn=ANKARA -  "I am calling to all countries in the region, please don't let yourselves be dragged into a dangerous position.  We want peace and tranquility in the region.  But some of the countries in our region they want to direct other countries 12,000 miles away from this regon."  Swissinfo/Reuters reports that was the sinister warning from Iran Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi speaking from Ankara where he was meeting Turkey Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu supposedly to arrange new negotiations between the European Union and Iran over Iran's continued nuclear weapons research and production.  The country 12,000 miles away that Gulf nations are directing is of course the U.S. which is leading the military sales/preparations to Gulf states since they are one of the frontlines against Teheran's attempt to control Persian Gulf resources.  Both Ankara-Teheran realize the West is aware of the military nature of Iran's nuclear production which is why I suspect Foreign Minister Davutoglu has difficulty maintaining a straight face when he offers Turkey as a venue for new negotiations which the West has long lost faith in pursuing.

rfn=Brussels-  In the meantime Xinhua is reporting the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) will be sending a delegation to Teheran, January 29-31 to confirm intelligence reports on Iran's nuclear weapons uranium enrichment.  That will be one week after the Foreign Ministers meeting at the European Union (EU) in Brussels Monday January 23 in which economic-energy sanctions will be discussed.  An EU diplomat stated, "On the (Iran) Central Bank things have been moving in the right direction...There is now wide agreement on the principle.  Discussions continue on the details."  Iran Central Bank assets would be frozen.  On the oil sanctions a grace period is now being planned which would have the sanctions take effect by July 1.

The reason for the almost weekly high level meetings between Ankara-Teheran is due to their having the same regional view in which they both want to see Western governments have little or no  military presence anywhere in the region and they are both opposed to the continued NATO presence in the former Yugoslavia. 

rfn=Damascus -  The only area of disagreement between Ankara-Teheran is over Bashar al-Assad and Tariq Alhomayed, Asharq al-Awsat columnist, addresses the risk the international community is taking by letting the Assad regime hang on.  Here are excerpts from his article: 'The Cost of the Fall of Assad', "Delaying the fall of al-Assad willl entail subsequent security and economic complications, not only for Syria but for the region as a whole...Therefore simply expecting or waiting for the al-Assad regime to collapse on its own without any significant effort to accelerate the process from our regional states and the international community means that the interests and stability of the region and world at large is being put at risk.  The true cost of delaying the fall of al-Assad is that the Syrian crisis will deepen and a civil war will be fuelled...Prolonging the life (asharq al-awsat) of the al-Assad regime also means further complicating the solution for the post al-Assad phase."

night watch:  rfn=ZABADANI -  "Tank bombardments have stopped, preachers are broadcasting the agreement from the minarets of Zabadani.  I think stiff resistance and defections among the attacking forces have forced the regime to negotiate.  We will see if it will stick to the deal.  The pullout is due to begin tomorrow."  That was the  announcement made by senior opposition leader Kamal al-Labwani of a tenuous ceasefire Al-Arabiya reports was made between units of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in the mountain resort town of Zabadani on Lebanon's border and the Assad regime after heavy fighting began Friday with the regime's offensive. (al-jazeera)  One person was killed, 50 injured but 30 regime soldiers were killed and an unknown number defected as the ranks of the FSA continue to swell.  Labwani was speaking from Amman where he was forced into exile and Asharq al-Awsat/Reuters reports Jordan King Abdullah was in Washington meeting President Barack Obama discussing the Syrian situation.  I suspect this implies military support through Jordan for the FSA as regional/international governments realize the improved performance of the FSA is increasing the number of defections.

rfn=Doha -  Naharnet is also reporting Syria state media, in the form of the paper Tishrin, is accusing Qatar of financing and arming the opposition.  Qatar-Jordan have been two of the most vocal critics of the Assad regime, along with Turkey, and I would not be surprised if some governments, including the U.S.-Britain-France, realize that since there will never be enough support for official international intervention through the United Nations Security Council, then the next best thing is to arm the FSA through bordering countries and watch the defections gradually undermine Bashar al-Assad.

rfn=Istanbul -  It is not only military defections (hdn) that are taking place.  Asharq al-Awsat has conducted an interview with the leader of the largest tribal group in the country, Sheikh Nawaf al-Bashir, head of the Al-Baqqara a community of more than one million based in the east in Deir el-Zour.  As one of the supporters of the 2005 Damascus Declaration Sheikh al-Bashir had already been interrogated by the regime 75 times before the revolt began in March last year.  He is now in Istanbul, arriving five days ago and was arrested July 31, "72 days being detained by the Political Security Directorate in Damascus, 20 days in solitary confinement...They took me from solitary confinement to the headquarters where they allowed me to meet with one of my sons who informed me that my house in Deir el-Zour was surrounded by tanks."

"A Political Security Directorate Colonel assured me that my house would be reduced to rubble unless I conduct an interview (satellite television) and spoke about the achievements and glory of President Bashar al-Assad.  They forced me to talk about the importance of giving political reforms a chance rather than engaging in the demonstrations that are taking place in Syrian cities."  He spoke of his leaving for Turkey, "It was an adventure, but God Almighty delivered us.  I crossed the Turkish border by night and from there went to Istanbul...I believe that 70 percent of the Syrian people will flee to Turkey or other neighboring countries, unless a buffer zone is established."  Sheikh al-Bashir stated conditions in Deir el-Zour are desperate with widespread suffering.  He added the majority of MPs in Parliament are also opposed to the regime but are afraid to speak out due to the risk to their families.

night watch:  rfn=ANTAKYA -  "The Arab League and their monitors failed in their mission and though we respect and appreciate our Arab brothers for their efforts, we think they are incapable of improving conditions in Syria or resisting this regime.  For that reason we call on them to turn the issue over to the UN Security Council and we ask that the international community intervene because they are more capable of protecting Syrians at this stage than our Arab brothers."  Swissinfo/Reuters reports that was the policy statement of Colonel Riyad al-Asaad head of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) speaking by telephone as heavy fighting takes place on the resort town of Zabadani on Lebanon's border which is controlled by the Syrian opposition.  And Xinhua reports Brigadier-General Mohammed Abdul-Hamid al-Awaa was assassinated on the way to his office in Gotta.  The FSA is extremely specific on targeted assassinations and I suspect General al-Awaa had a leading role in the suppression.  Asharq al-Awsat/Reuters report the resort town of 40,000, just 19 miles from Damascus containing villas of the Syrian elite, has repelled attacks from the Assad regime.  A young girl on her balcony pointed to the snowcapped mountains nearby as the weather has helped the resistance, "They need 30 minutes to get here and if the guys see them coming they set off fireworks, we'll hear about it immediately.  Then we get ready."

rfn=Beirut -  "The General Committee of the Syrian Revolution" Asharq al-Awsat reports released this statement, "The security forces shot dead seven people in various parts of Syria...Syrian regime's victims have exceeded the 6,275 barrier since the outbreak of the revolution (15 March 2011) to this day."  Speaking from Hamah, in central Syria, Abu Ghazi al-Hamawi, member of 'Hamah Revolutionaries Council' announced, "The military and security operations on the ground have not stopped...more than 20 tanks and more than 30 personnel carriers and armored vehicles raided (yesterday) the town of Kafr Nabudah in Hamah countryside to suppress a peaceful demonstration which led to six martyrs.  The military forces are still deployed extensively in the town...This operation prompted several soldiers to defect and they clashed with their comrades after fire was opened on the unarmed civilians."

"Night demonstrations inside Hamah do not stop and are protected by elements from the Free Syrian Army.  The regular army does not dare to attack them at night for fear of falling into the FSA ambushes."  In Homs, Abu-Ghalib al-Ayyubi, an officer of the Revolutionaries Coordination Council said the situation is little changed and the city is still under siege but, "The revolutionaries are protected by their brothers from the FSA."  Al-Ayyubi added the FSA handed a captured tank to the Arab League monitors.  The League is to convene a meeting on the Syrian situation Sunday and I would not be surprised if they support Colonel Asaad's call for international intervention through the United Nations Security Council.

night watch:  rfn=CAIRO -  For the first time since the Syrian revolt began last March a member of Syria's Parliament has defected from the government.  Al-Jazeera reports Imad Ghalioun, speaking from Cairo late Sunday to Al-Arabiya TV, stated he was able to leave before the regime imposed a travel ban. (hdn) Ghalioun said he represented the city of Homs, which has been at the center of the anti-regime revolution, a city Ghailoun described as "disaster stricken."  Significantly he also mentioned there are more Ministers of Parliament also opposed to the regime and support the revolt but are currently afraid to speak out.  Swissinfo/Reuters report eleven people were killed across the country Monday including in a random shooting by pro-Assad militia in Homs.  It has also been reported security forces fired on demonstrators in the town of Ariha in Idlib province in the presence of Arab League monitors.  The Secretary-General of the Arab League, Nabil al-Arabi, speaking from the Bahrain capital, Manama, announced (al-arabiya/afp) the proposal by Qatar Emir Sheikh Hamid bin Khalifa Al-Thani, to send troops into Syria, will be discussed at the next League meeting in Cairo next Sunday.

Some suspect the recent exchange of visits by Arab leaders and the West/Turkey implies some degree of military cooperation is being planned against the Assad regime (al-arabiya) and the support it receives from Iran-Hezbollah.

rfn=Belgrade -  "They did not accidentally choose just this moment to add fuel to the flames in Kosovo.  Now, when the talks between Belgrade and Pristina have yielded results and when the agreements are being fully implemented, it is obvious that someone needs new provocations in order to turn things back to the way they were before.  It is evident that stability and less divergent views are not in someone's interest."  B92 report that was the statement by Serbia Minister of Parliament Goran Bogdanovic speaking to the Belgrade paper Vecernje Novosti after last weeks violent demonstration by the Kosovo Albanian Self-Determination Movement, led by Albin Kurti, which has been opposed to the agreements between the Albanian government in Serbia's Kosovo province and Belgrade which reduced tensions over cross border traffic the main flashpoint in the former Yugoslavia.

Bogdanovic continued, "Neither Kurti nor his followers have chosen on their own this moment to block Merdare and raise tension.  I am convinced that they have masterminds even outside the territory of Kosovo."  B92 reports the Self-Determination Movement announced Sunday new demonstrations are being planned for the 22nd.  The "masterminds" could be found in Teheran and even in Ankara since both governments are opposed to NATO's continued military presence in the former Yugoslavia and in 2006 Teheran-Athens signed security agreements with Belgrade.  Iran welcomes any regional war which can involve the West.

night watch:  rfn=TEHERAN -  "If the oil producing Gulf States give the green light to replacing Iran's oil these countries will be the main culprits for whatever happens in the region - including the Strait of Hormuz.  Our Arab neighbor countries should not cooperate with these adventurers...These measures will not be preceived as friendly."  Swissinfo/Reuters reports that was the policy warning by Iran OPEC Governor Mohammad Ali Khatibi as the oil producing states of the Persian Gulf use Iran's increasingly isolated economic position to increase their revenue from oil exports to the West-Japan-China.  Saudi Arabia Oil  Minister Ali al-Naimi has already announced his country was ready (al-arabiya) to increase its oil production and exports to make up for any loss caused by the coming European Union (EU) oil sanctions against Iran because of Iran's nuclear/ballistic missile programs.

rfn=London -  In an interview with London's Daily Telegraph (webindia123/ians) Britain Foreign Secretary William Hague addressed the growing crisis over Iran:  "We do have to confront these problems because Iran has embarked on a course which threatens the whole region of the Middle East with nuclear proliferation...It is an intensifying problem that we have over their nuclear program.  And so there is a risk that this will become a greater crisis as 2012 goes on.  We don't take any options off the table in the long term.  We believe in intensifying the peaceful, legitimate pressures on Iran - so that is what people will see much more of over the coming weeks.  We must not be starry-eyed about sanctions - sanctions policies do not always succeed.  But this is the best means we have of increasing the pressure.  And Iran is getting itself into a more and more difficult situation, steadily losing friends and supporters around the world.  Its economy is in a more and more fragile position, and of course what it's doing on its nuclear program will only increase these tensions and difficulties."

rfn=Jerusalem -  HDN/AFP report Israel Public Radio, citing military sources, have announced the postponement of the U.S.-Israel anti-missile maneuvers 'Austere Challenge 12' that were to have take place during the spring involving thousands of troops from both countries.  Obviously the postponement is due to the immediacy of the situation.

rfn=Delhi -  "Nuclear weapons are not for war fighting, lets be quite clear on it, they're just a strategic significance and that's where it should end. (webindia123) Me and my army are not bothered about who has nuclear weapons.  We have our tasks cut out and we will progress along that."  WebIndia123 reports that was the statement by the head of the India Army General V. K. Singh on the sidelines of India's annual Army Day Parade amid reports two of India's enemies, Pakistan-China, have been increasing their nuclear arsenal.  Beijing,as well as Teheran, both support the offensive Action Plan of Pakistan General Pervez Musharraf which he presented to Teheran when he was head of state in 2007 and I assume the plan calls for the tactical use of nuclear weapons. (webindia123) These remarks by General Singh could be classified as famous last words.

Pakistan-China have unresolved territorial disputes with Delhi, Islamabad over the Muslim majority state of Kashmir and Beijing over control of India's northeast state of Arunachal Pradesh (xinhua) which China invaded for one month in October 1962.

night watch:  rfn=TEHERAN -  "Iran is standing behind the al-Assad regime and continues to provide support to suppress the Syrian people.  A number of senior Iranian officials have visited Syria to coordinate with Syrian officials the repression of Syrian citizens."  Al-Jazeera reports that was the statement from a senior U.S. official on the situation inside Syria as the violence has continued despite the presence of more than 150 monitors from the Arab League which arrived December 26.  The observer mission has been used by Bashar al-Assad-Teheran as a cover for increased attacks on the opposition.  More than 400 people have been killed since the mission began bringing the total killed since the revolt last March to nearly 6,000.  The U.S. official continued.  "It has come to our attention that the commander of the Iran Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps/Quds Force, (General) Ghasem Soleimani, was in Damascus, Syria in early January 2012.  Given Soleimani's rank, within the Iranian government, we are confident that he was received at the highest levels of the Syrian government, including Syrian President Bashar al-Assad."

"Moreover, the visit was likely related to further Iranian suport to Syria's efforts to suppress its people.  In addition, Iran has provided security related equipment-including munitions-to the (swissinfo/reuters) Syrian security services, that are being used against the Syrian people."  It was never any secret Teheran was actively involved in supporting Bashar al-Assad and his police state government against the popular revolt.  And even though Iran's leadership realizes Assad will be overthrown they can use him to attract a lot of attention.  Today, it is even being reported the Emir of Qatar Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifia al-Thani, stated in a CBS News interview, which will be aired Sunday on '60 Minutes' foreign troops should enter Syria to end the violence against the protesters.  "For such a situation to stop the killing...some troops should go to stop the killing.  We support the people of those countries...asking for justice and dignity.  If this is influence, I think this is a healthy influence.  I think all the world should support this."

Qatar played a leading role in the war against Colonel Muammar Gadhafi in Libya, in an active partnership with NATO governments, and I suspect the Emir is not just speaking for himself.  It is also quite possible fighting in Syria could extend into Lebanon which has 12,000 troops, mostly from Europe, in the (naharnet/afp) south of the country serving under the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon.  (xinhua) In the meantime, as the Syrian situation is being talked up, the Pentagon is increasing its carrier presence in the Arabian Sea.  Allied forces in the Eastern Mediterranean are poised for involvment against Bashar al-Assad and Hezbollah in Lebanon while units are concentrating against Iran.

night watch:  rfn=ANKARA -  More details are emerging on the planned military cooperation between Western governments and Turkey against Bashar al-Assad in Damascus.  HDN/AFP/Reuters reported yesterday remarks by Russia Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev warning the West/Turkey were planning to directly intervene against Bashar al-Assad mainly through Turkey and establish a no-fly zone for the anti-regime units of the Free Syrian Army (FSA).  Now Patrushev is adding, "The main strike forces will be supplied not by France, Britain and Italy but possibly by neighboring Turkey.  They want to punish Damascus, not so much for the repression of the opposition, but rather for its refusal to break off relations with Teheran.  There is a likelihood of military escalation of the conflict, and Israel is pushing the Americans toward it.  There is a real danger of a U.S. military strike on Iran.  At present the U.S. sees Iran as its main problem."

"They are trying to turn Teheran from an enemy into a supportive partner, and to achieve this to change the current regime by whatever means.  It cannot be ruled out that the Iranians will be able to carry out their threat to shut exports of Saudi oil through the Strait of Hormz if faced with military actions against them."  It has already been reported Ankara has prepared three Brigades to invade Syria and establish a buffer zone across the border which can be used as bases for the FSA, now believed to number 40,000 soldiers formerly of the Assad regime.  Ankara and the West may be waiting for the Arab League report on January 19 which I suspect will be extremely critical of the regime as it continues its attacks on Syrian (naharnet/afp) demonstrators even in the presence of Arab Leage monitors.

rfn=Riyadh -  Teheran is of course aware of this and perhaps realizes full scale war may not begin in the Strait of Hormuz but rather in Syria as Iran's most important regional axis partner is invaded providing massive support for the popular uprising.  This is the wider regional war I have been predicting for several years now that I believe began in February last year when Libya Colonel Muammar Gadhafi opened fire on demonstrators and the West responded with military support for the revolution.  Industrial groups in the West are of course concerned about resource security and now Libya's oil has become more secure with Gadhafi gone.  Assad's close military relations with Iran are even more of a threat to oil supplies and that is why fighting will indeed spread to the Persian Gulf as Teheran's way of responding to the West's attacks on Assad. 

Bashar al-Assad's last service (asharq al-awsat) to Teheran is to provide a target, a diversion away from Iran for as long as possible in order to reduce combined Allied attacks on Iran's nuclear/ballistic missile facilities.  HDN/AFP report Britain Prime Minister David Cameron met in Riyadh with Saudi Arabia King Abdullah to discuss military cooperation.  The military intervention against Assad will be in support of the FSA and the opposition coalition.  Swissinfo/Reuters conducted an interview with the highest ranking Syrian Army officer to defect, General Mostafa Ahmad al-Sheikh, who stated without international support it would take the FSA a year to eighteen months to overthrow Assad using guerrilla tactics.  "The Free Syrian Army needs to remain under control for fear that the regime may suddenly collapse.  The desertions have been locally based and in small groups.  Mass defections will occur when there is an open horizon and when the soldiers feels there is an international decision to bring down the regime.  Safe havens will help.  If they are set up whole units will defect and the regime will fall much quicker."

rfn=Antakya -  One of the leading opposition groups, the Syrian National Council (SNC), released this statement after its leader, (asharq al-awsat/afp) President Burhan Ghaliun met the commander of the FSA Colonel Riyad al-Asaad Thursday, and they "extensively discussed the situation on the ground and the organizational capacity of the FSA.  The parties agree to formulate a detailed plan to include the support of FSA units and brigades and the creation of a format to accomodate within FSA ranks additional officers and soldiers, especially senior military officials who side with the revolution.  The SNC proposed a plan of action concerning mechanisms and avenues of support to be offered to pro-revolution sectors of the Syrian military.  Additionally a direct channel of communication between the SNC and FSA will be established...to ensure effective coordination between the two.  The SNC intends to establish a liaison office with the FSA in order to maintain direct communication around the clock."

night watch:  rfn=TOKYO -  "In the past five years we have reduced...the amount of oil imported (from Iran).  We want to take planned and concrete steps to further reduce this share, which now stands at 10 percent."  Al Jazeera reports that was the policy statement announced by Japan Finance Minister Jun Azumi during a press conference with U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner in support of oil sanctions on Iran.  Obviously Tokyo was aware for quite some time this situation could develop.  This comes as current sanctions on Iran continues to wreak havoc on the energy sector infrastructure in Iran's oil fields.  Swissinfo/Reuters quoted a former Iranian Oil Ministry official:  "Iran's oil and gas sector is in need of technology and investment.  Our fields, pipelines and oil refineries need investment and development.  Chinese technology is not as good as Western technology and therefore sanctions are hitting even the fields.  Domestic demand is increasing." 

"The government says Iran is producing gasoline for domestic use but look at the pollution.  The main reason for pollution is the home made gasoline.  It does not meet the standards at all."  That is why Teheran, a city of 12 million, is perpetually shrouded in heavy smog due to the low quality fuel.  The government has turned to companies affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards to manage the oil fields.  The former official explained, "But they lack the technology and the expertise so the result is that the sector is a mess now.  Firms, with no experience were winning the bids but they were not capable of carrying out the work.  The result was delayed projects.  Now even Iranians companies are steering clear of the energy sectory because of the political situation.  It has been very difficult to work with the establishment."

rf=Arabian Sea -  In another sign full scale fighting is near WebIndia123/Fox News are now reporting a new U.S. carrier strike group, led by the USS Carl Vinson, has entered the Arabian Sea with another soon to follow.  At the same time, in Washington, the White House released this statement after a meeting between Qatar Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim Al-Thani, U.S. Vice-President Joseph Biden and National Security Adviser Tom Donilon (al-arabiya/afp), "In particular they condemned the ongoing violence in Syria perpetrated by the Assad regime and noted the significance of the Arab League Observer Mission's final report due on January 19."  Events could develop very quickly.  Qatar heads the mission and has been extremely cirtical of the Assad regime.  The report could therefore call for international intervention and just four days later the European Union Foreign Ministers meeting is to take place in Brussels and could call for more oil sanctions on Iran.  Teheran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz in response.

rfn=Damascus -  There are now some indications the meeting in Washington between Qatar Prime Minister Al-Thani and the Obama Administration could result in direct military intervention in Syria similar to the case in Libya.  Al-Arabiya/AFP reports in Moscow, Russia Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev announced, "There is information that NATO members and some Arab states in the Persian Gulf, acting in line with the scenario seen in Libya, intend to turn the current interference with Syrian affairs into a direct military intervention."  Patrushev then added Washington-Ankara may be in the planning stages of a no-fly zone in support of the Free Syrian Army, which may now number 40,000 men, to enable them to set up opposition bases inside Syria.

The war will be used to attack any government/group in the region with military relations with Teheran, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.

night watch:  rfn=TEHERAN -  "Today (Wednesday) those who claim to be combating terrorism have targeted Iranian scientists. (swissinfo/reuters) They should know that Iranian scientists are more determined than ever in  striding towards Iran's progress."  HDN/AFP reports that was the angry response by Iran Vice-President Mohammad Reza Rahimi after another Iranian nuclear scientist was assassinated in northern Teheran near a university campus. (al-arabiya) Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, 32, was Deputy Director of Iran's Natanz Uranium enrichment facility and specialzed in making polymeric membranes to separate gas, an essential part of Iran's nuclear weapons program.  Roshan was killed when two men on a motorcycle attached a magnetic bomb to his car.  This could be the work of dissident members of Iran's Revolutionary Guards who announced their opposition to the government after the violent disputes and mass demonstrations after the 2009 elections in which Iran's moderate candidate was denied a chance to take office.

I would not be surprised if this military opposition inside Iran has foreign support directing them against Iran's nuclear scientists.  Israel Military Chief of Staff, Lieutenant-General Benny Gantz summed it up by saying, (al jazeera) "For Iran, 2012 is a critical year in combining the continuation of its nuclearization, internal changes in the Iranian leadership, continuing and growing pressure from the international community and things which take place in an unnatural manner."

rfn=Ankara -  In the dark of these latest events HDN/AFP report Iran's government is sending Parliament/Majlis Speaker Ali Larijani to Turkey expected to arrive by late Wednesday.  Speaker Larijani, the point man of Teheran's foreign policy, will be meeting Turkey's Speaker of Parliament Cemil Cicek, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and possibly Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President Abdullah Gul.  The leadership of both governments must realize the West is at the center of these attacks in and attempt to not only disrupt but to eliminate as many officials/scientists as possible before full scale war which could erupt during the first part of this year when the European Union (EU) approves an oil embargo against Iran a decision which could be made January 23. 

Ankara would also like to see the influence of the West reduced in the region and both Turkey-Iran are opposed to the continued military presence of NATO units in the former Yugoslavia another regional theatre where forces from the West could be engaged.  As fighting begins over access to the Strait of Hormuz, Turkey-Iran, due to their contacts in the Balkans, could have fighting break out again in Serbia's Kosovo province while at the same time voice support for Serbia against NATO.  In 2006 both Iran-Greece signed security agreements with Serbia.

rfn=Damascus -  "The mission was a farce and the observers have been fooled. (al-jazeera)  I withdrew from the Arab observers mission because I found myself serving the regime and not part of an independent observer group.  It even began killing its own supporters to convince the Arab observers that it is carrying out its duties (asharq al-awsat) and to gain their sympathy.  The regime orchestrated it and fabricated most of what we saw to stop the Arab League from taking action against the regime.  What I saw was a humanitarian disaster.  The regime isn't committing one war crime but a series of war crimes against its people."  Al-Arabiya reports that was the scathing assessment of the performance of the Assad regime by Anwar Malek an Algerian who spent 15 days in Homs, the center of the ten month revolt, (swissinfo/reuters) and said the city should be declared a "disaster" zone.  "I saw charred and skinned bodies that had been tortured" and that the regime sent "spies and intelligence officers with our team to act as drivers and minders to get our information and as soon as we left an area they attacked people."

rfn=Damascus -  "The authorities are not giving us fuel because most of it is going to the army tanks that are everywhere."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the statement from Yassen Fara a resident of the Damascus suburb of Daria as economic conditions across the country deteriorate to such an extent even the middle and upper classes of Damascus and the economic center of Aleppo are now being affected.  "I always felt we were privileged when I passed by the poor shanty towns on the fringes of the city.  I am now more afraid every day this crisis continues with no light at the end of the tunnel."  That was Zaitoun, 44, speaking from his office in the capital's Seven Lakes commercial district.  And the regime made matters much worse by setting off explosions in recent weeks that left scores of people dead and carnage in the heart to the capital creating an atmopshere of fear and the growing awareness the regime is losing control of events on the ground.

The regime no longer even controls Bashar al-Assad's speeches.  In Aleppo, people are openly talking about a depression gripping the middle class as the cost of imports have increased by at least a third and the Syrian pound has depreciated 21 percent against the dollar since the revolt began last March.  Essam Zamrick, Vice-President of Damacus Chamber of Industry explained, "The middle class has been hit.  Their purchasing power has gone down by at least 18 to 22 percent and as for the low income (households) they have been hammered."  There is now a flourishing blackmarket since the government increased the price of fuel.

night watch:  rfn=BRUSSELS -  The European Union (EU) has rescheduled tis Foreign Ministers meeting for January 23, a week earlier than previously announced.  This comes the day after Teheran stated uranium enrichment had begun at its Fordow facility near Qom built inside a mountain in an attempt to shield it from air attacks.  Swissinfo/Reuters the EU-Japan are already preparing for an oil embargo against Iran which could result in the meeting in Brussels after which Teheran has stated its response would be to block the Strait of Hormuz.  France has already called for measures of "unprecedented scale and severity" as Britain-Germany also denounce the enrichment at Fordow.  And China's Central Government is (swissinfo/reuters) sending Premier Wen Jiabao to three other major oil exporters, Saudi Arabia-Qatar-United Arab Emirates, in order to secure alternative sources of supply to become less dependent on Iran.

Spiegel International, in its article today, 'The Escalation' writes:  "Surprisingly enough, supertankers don't burn very well.  Although the crude oil they transport is highly flammable, there is not enough oxygen in their tanks to create an explosive mixture.  An average of 14 of these giant tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran and Oman, every day.  If Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad actually ordered his forces to fire missiles at one of these tankers, quite a bit of firepower would be needed to set off a Hollywood style inferno."

rfn=Damascus -  The Syrian opposition responded to the rambling, disjointed 100 minute speech yesterday at Damascus University by Bashar al-Assad in which he dismissed and mocked the Arab League.  Al Jazeera reports Basma Qadmani spoke for the Syrian National Council (SNC), "This is a turning point, (for the regime) a rupture with its Arab environment. (hdn) Our concern today is that such a speech is quite indicative of the total dismissal by the regime of the international community.  There is incitement to violence, incitement to civil strife, some talk about sectarian divisions which the regime itself has fomented and encouraged.  And that is an indication that we are going in the direction of more irresponsible and more criminal behavior by the regime in the coming days and weeks."

rfn=Latakia -  Al Arabiya reports eleven Arab League monitors and their vehicles were attacked by pro-regime supporters in the port city of Latakia.  If this continues, and it probably will, it will increase the chances of the League calling for international intervention.  At the same time Asharq al-Awsat is reporting a senior commander of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) has stated the financial situation of the organization is "weak" and almost all of their support comes from ordinary Syrians instead of wealthy Syrian expatriates.  He also said, "Turkey's position, until now, remains unclear and this is something that will negatively impact on the Syrian revolt in general and on the FSA in particular."  It seems that Ankara denied the FSA approval to open a bank account to attract more funding.  The officer also mentioned if the organization had more resources it would have overthrown the regime by now. 

And that most of its equipment is still light weaponry, AK-47s and rocket propelled grenades (RPG) which they indeed purchase from pro-regime Shabiha militia.  He even stated some officers and personnel from the ruling Alawite community, which Bashar al-Assad is from, privately support the revolt but are too afraid to speak out publicly but very soon some Alawite officers will announce their defection from the regime.  The FSA also obtains weaponry from defecting soldiers or from attacks on the regime's army.  I suspect Ankara has not been more direct in its support because that would mean working with Western governments militarily which is an anathema within Turkey's ruling circles.  Ankara probably realizes the continued erosion of support for Bashar al-Assad will eventually remove him.

night watch:  rfn=FORDOW -  "The enrichment in Fordow has started."  Swissinfo/Reuters reports that was the announcement by an Iranian official as Iran's most advanced, known facility begins operations to enrich uranium to 20 percent as part of a process to produce nuclear warheads.  Fordow became news in 2009 located inside a mountain which Xinhua/CCTV reports is under 90 meters of rock, near the religious center of Qom, and is under a hardened tunnel protected by air defense batteries of the Revolutionary Guards.  I suspect this could be target number one in the Allied air offensive when full scale war begins over access to the Strait of Hormuz.  In Vienna, a Western diplomat responded to this anticipated event, "All of Iran's enrichment activity is in violation of (United Nations) Security Council resolutions (hdn) and any expansion of its capacity at Fordow just compounds these violations."

rfn=Khorasan Province -  Iran's response will not be limited to attacking Western targets in the Persian Gulf and launching ballistic missiles at enemy governments.  It will also include and offensive against NATO forces/bases in Afghanistan.  Xinhua/CCTV has provided a news video on the maneuvers Iran is conducting in the eastern province of Khorasan on Afghanistan's border.

rfn=Northern Syria -  An exclusive report/video from Al Jazeera interviews members of the Free Syrian Army in northern Syria as they discuss their reasons for defecting and the ease in which they and civilians can purchase weapons from officers in the Assad regime.  The FSA has divided their ranks into 22 Battalions across the country.

rfn=North Caucasus -  RIA reports Russia's Interior Ministry announced four of its soldiers were killed in action that resulted in the deaths of four Islamic militants in the Chechnya district of Vedensky Sunday morning. (hdn/afp) Sixteen Russian soldiers were also wounded in the action against an"armed group of 10 to 15" and in "deep snow and thick fog."  A police source said the militant group is now "blocked" in the woods with more troops and equipment arriving.  War broke out in the Northern Caucasus December 1994 against Islamic groups, supported by Teheran.  The region is a crossroads of energy pipelines between the Black-Caspian Sea and Iran has been using the war here in an attempt to disrupt Russia's energy exports to the West, especially to industrial concerns in Germany.

night watch:  rfn=CAIRO -  "There is division inside the meeting of the Foreign Ministers. (france24/afp)  Bascially the point of discussion is whether or not to widen the Arab League monitoring mission and to create a greater degree of international involvement in particular the United Nations."  Al Jazeera reports that was the announcement by its correspondent Mike Hanna in Cairo as the 22 member nations of the Arab League debates the effectiveness of its monitoring mission which arrived in Syria December 26.  "We do understand that some of the delegates have been arguing in favor of this, in particular Qatar, however others are opposed to any UN involvement among them we believe to be the Secretary General of the Arab League himself (Nabil Elaraby)."  Qatar Prime Minister Hamad bin Jassim Al Thani heads the Foreign Ministers group and has already stated the Assad regime had done nothing to implement the demands of the mission, to remove army units from cities and end the attacks and killings and that monitors were not there to "waste time."

Al Arabiya reports the Ministerial Committee has just released this statement it, "has decided to give the Arab League observers the necessary time to continue their mission according to the protocol." (asharq al-awsat)  Ten observers from Jordan arrived Saturday bringing the total number to 153.  In the meantime action is continuing on the ground with 11 regime soldiers (naharnet/afp) killed in Daraa province near Jordan's border and 20 wounded in heavy fighting against the Free Syrian Army.  There are also reports of heavy machine gun fire and shelling in and near the city of Deir ez-Zor in the east.

night watch:  rfn=PERSIAN GULF -  "The Royal Navy has had a continuous presence East of Suez for many years, including the Armilla patrol and its successors since 1980.  While the newly operational Type 45 Destroyer HMS Daring is more capable than earlier ships, her deployment East of Suez has long been planned, is entirely routine and replaces a Frigate on station."  HDN/AFP report that was the announcement by Britain's Ministry of Defense (MoD) a day after Teheran announced new naval maneuvers in the Persian Gulf/Strait of Hormuz to begin January 21 to February 19 intended to display Iran's control over the maritime traffic and the oil fields.  And this past week Britain Defense Secretary Philip Hammond was in Washington I assume for meetings in the Pentagon.  Defense Secretary Hammond stated U.S.-Britain would ensure that the response to any provocation was "very measured, that there isn't an accidental escalation."

rfn=Jerusalem -  Western governments do not want to appear to be the ones that set off full scale war but I suspect Allied governments are prepared to respond in a massive way to any move by Teheran due to the importance of access to the region's oil.  One of Iran's moves of course will be ballistic missile launchings at the West and HDN reports Israel's military has announced a joint exercise with the U.S. European Command based in Germany.  It is designated 'Austere Challenge 12', "The exercise scenario involves notional, simulated events as well as some field training and is not in response to any real world event.  The U.S. European Command and the Israel Defense Forces periodically conduct routine exercises in Israel.  Those exercises, which are part of a long standing strategic partnership, are planned in advance and part of a routine training cycle designed to improve the interoperability of our defense systems."  It is possible to intercept some of Iran's missiles before they begin their downward trajectory.

rfn=Khvat -  Swissinfo/Reuters report the commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Ground Forces, Brigadier-General Mahmoud Pakpour has announced the beginning of the 'Martyrs of Unity' maneuvers just forty miles (60 km) from Afghanistan's border.  General Pakpour announced they are "aimed at boosting security along the Iranian border" but in reality they are aimed at confronting, if not attacking NATO's troops/bases in Afghanistan.

rfn=Paris -  "We are watching the situation carefully."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the announcement by an official with the International Energy Agency (IEA) based in Paris as the service prepares to implement a plan to release 14 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) from storage facilities in the U.S.-Europe-Japan and other importing countries.  The plan is designed to last a month if access to the Persian Gulf is temporarily cut off.  I suspect Iran's leadership realizes they will not be able to control the Strait of Hormuz/Persian Gulf for very long but are now ready to use it as a flashpoint for full scale war in order to do as much damage to the West as possible.

rfn=Antakya -  Asharq al-Awsat reports the head of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), Colonel Riyad al-Asaad has announced the FSA has "prepared a strategy that it will begin to enforce in the forth coming days and this is to transfer the battle to the regime's backyard."  Colonel Asaad added, "The Syrian regime will not last for more than another six months because the morale of the Syrian Army is collapsing.  We are communicating with many officers and soldiers who have revealed the collapse in morale and self-esteem...and they have also told us that they live in terror which is committed to prevent them from defecting."

rfn=Hama -  Syrian Colonel Afeef Mahmoud Suleiman, with an Air Force Logistics Division, has just announced his defection from the Assad regime, with fifty of his men, over Al Jazeera speaking from Hama, "We are from the army and we have defected because the government is killing civilian portesters.  The Syrian army attacked Hama with heavy weapons, air raids and heavy fire, from tanks.  We ask the Arab League observers to come visit areas affected by air raids and attacks so you can see the damage with your own eyes.  And we ask you to send someone to uncover the three cemeteries in Hama filled with more than 460 corpses."

At the same time, on Saturday, Bashar al-Assad held talks with Mustafa Kamalak, leader of Turkey's Felicity Pary.  I suspect this is a last minute desperate attempt by Assad to reach out to Ankara which has long abandoned him.  Maybe Assad is asking for safe passage to Turkey.

night watch:  rfn=STRAIT OF HORMUZ -  "Today the Islamic Republic of Iran has full domination over the region and controls all movements within it."  That was the announcement Swissinfo/Reuters reported was made by Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi naval commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards speaking to the Fars news agency.  Admiral Fadavi then announced (hdn/afp) a new series of maneuvers to be held only in the Persian Gulf/Strait of Hormuz from January 21 to February 19, "The seventh in the series of Great Prophet Maneuvers will be conducted in the area of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.  They will have significant differences from the previous ones."  These are obviously timed for when the European Union (EU) is to hold its meeting in Brussels January 30 to decide on oil sanctions against Iran due to its nuclear/ballistic missile programs and Teheran has warned it will shut down the Strait of Hormuz in response.

rfn=Damascus -  Iran's response is to increase the chaos in the region leading to direct full scale war with Iran's main international rival, Western governments, in the hope the chaos, from the Persian Gulf to the Eastern Mediterranean, will disrupt coordinated attacks by Allied governments on Iran's military bases and nuclear facilities.  Chaos is the role Bashar al-Assad and his police state in Syria are now performing for Teheran.  They may be performing that role unwittingly as Asharq al-Awsat reports Farooq Tayfur, Deputy Controller General of Syria's Muslim Brotherhood, stated they had flatly refused a Iranian proposal to end the Syrian revolt.  The negotiations were conducted through Turkish mediators representing envoys from Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei two months ago which offered the Brotherhood four or more Ministerial positions in the Assad regime if the organization agreed Bashar al-Assad remained head of state.

But during the course of the interview Tayfur stated the Iranians began to change their position when both Ayatollah Khamenei and Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced the Syrian people had the right to make their own decisions.  The Turkish mediator admitted, "The most important reason for this change was the urgent message sent by Bashar al-Assad to Khamenei telling him that the Syrian situation had become difficult and asking him to find a way out of this deadlock."  I am not surprised Khamenei refused because stability does not suit Iran's purpose because the international community could then concentrate all of its attention on Iran's nuclear/ballistic missile facilities, therefore let chaos regin in Syria.  And that is why today Al-Arabiya reported Arab League monitors were fired on by the regime's security forces in the Damascus suburb of Arbeen and Al-Jazeera reports another explosion in Damascus, its central al-Maidan district which disrupted a planned anti-Assad demonstration.

This is the work of Teheran which wants the Syrian opposition to increase its call for international intervention.  At the same time the first Syrian General has announced his defection from the regime, General Mostafa Ahmed El-Sheikh and a senior Syria government official (al-jazeera) Mahmoud Souleiman Hajj Hamad announced his defection from the regime during a press conference in Cairo Wednesday.  Hamad had been the head inspector of Syria's Defense Ministry.

rfn=International Green Zone -  As Teheran continues to set up Syria to attract more attention, Iran continues to use the political/religious divisions across Iraq in the hope an effective government never emerges in Baghdad which could be an ally of Saudi Arabia and a threat to Iran.  A wave of bomb attacks took place yesterday that killed at least seventy people and Al-Jazeera correspondent Omar Saleh, reporting from Baghdad, says rockets, bombs and mortar attacks are continuing in Iraq today:  "The day started with two improvised explosive devices that targeted the Shia pilgrims heading to the holy city of Karbala.  A number of people were killed and over a dozen were injured.  Later on a wave of mortar rounds fell in different parts of the Iraqi capital.  The most prominent mortar round fell inside the Green Zone, that is the fortified Green Zone where the Iraqi government is based and the U.S. Embassy is based.  It gives you a sense of how security is going in the country and of course if you compare it to the bloody attacks yesterday that killed more than 70 people, Iraq is not safe and that is the fear on the ground."

night watch:  rfn=TEHERAN -  "These sanctions are an economic war against us.  The enemies of the Islamic republic's regime, with all their tricks, have not been able to chain the nation and now they want to chain the economy."  Al Jazeera/IRNA report that was the angry statement by Iran Finance Minister Shamseddin Hosseini as the prospects increase for European Union (EU) members, 27 governments, to impose oil sanctions on Iran by the end of this month.  Reporting from Paris, correspondent Jackie Rowland observed, Britain-France were engaging in serious "arm twisting" of Spain-Greece-Italy to make sure they agree to sanctions with each of those three countries having to find alternative suppliers to replace the loss of oil from Iran.  One source could be Russia which has increased its production as has Saudi Arabia.  France Foreign Minister Alain Juppe addressed the question (france24/afp) of sources of supply for Spain-Greece-Italy by saying, "These alternative solutions exists and I think we can attain the objective by the end of January."

rfn=Washington -  And the U.S. has announced it is sending Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to China-Japan next week (hdn/afp) for sanctons "coordination."  The trip to Beijing will be especially significant since China is the main importer of Iran's oil, purchasing 22% of Iran's exports, but already Beijing has cut by more than half its order for oil from Iran this month.  The EU is the second leading importer of Iran's oil purchasing 18% of its exports with Japan third purchasing 14% of Iran's oil exports.  Teheran is trying to put a brave face on this loss of revenue by announcing it has plenty of other buyers but Iran will have to sell its oil to them at a substantial discount and oil exports accounts for 80% of Iran's foreign currency earnings.  Already the price for a barrel of Brent Crude in London has increased to $114.  Significantly Turkey, imports 30% of its oil needs from Iran, 5% of Iran's exports, is seeking a waiver from the U.S. for its major oil refinery Tupras.  Ankara may decide to increase imports from Iran due to their strategic/military cooperation.

rfn=Oxford -  Understandably, more and more international affairs analysts have expressed a variety of views as to how this crisis over access to the Strait of Hormuz will develop.  Swissinfo/Reuters reports Farhang Jahanpour, Associate Fellow at the Faculty of Oriental Studies at Oxford University summed it up by warning, "Both sides are talking tough.  Unfortunately it can very easily get out of hand and cause a conflagration.  I blame hardliners on both sides.  They are playing a very dangerous game of chicken."  Of all the analysts quoted in the article I think Anthony Cordesman comes closest to what will really happen.  Cordesman is a veteran and former U.S. intelligence official now Burke Chair of Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, "We might well take the opportunity to take out their entire defense system.  You'd almost certainly also see serious strikes on their nuclear facilities.  Once the Iranians have initiated hostilities there is no set level at when you have to stop escalation."

rfn=Teheran -  Iran's leadership seems to  be ready to initiate full scale war as HDN/Fars News report this policy proposal by Minister of Parliament (Majlis) Nader Qazipour, "If the military vessels and warships of any country wants to pass via the Strait of Hormuz without coordination and permission of Iran's Navy Forces, they should be stopped by the Iran Armed Forces."  A working plan on this proposal is to be presented to the presiding board in Iran's Parliament next week.

night watch:  rfn=LATAKIA -  Ali Ibrahim, Deputy Editor-in-Chief for Asharq al-Awsat in his article today, 'Talk of Missiles' addresses the escalation of the situation in and around the Persian Gulf:  "Something strange is taking place within Iranian politics.  It might be deliberate or otherwise, but in any case it reflects the nature of the internal conflict between multiple centers of power.  The latest example was the threat issued by a senior Iranian official regarding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz (al jazeera).  Only one day after this threat was issued it was played down by Teheran...However, talk was renewed yesterday, after the launch of two new missiles.  Meanwhile, an Iranian military commander revealed that Syrian observers will be attending the last day of the missile launch exercises.  This is a significant reference to regional intertwinement and overlap and an indication of Iran's fear of any change in Syria."

"Tension is high because of these maneuvers and statements, but in reality, the actual bullets being fired are economic in nature.  The most recent of those bullets was signed by the U.S. President to penalize financial institutions dealing with Iran's Central Bank.  As a consequence, Iran's currency has been further devalued because such penalties mean that Iran's oil customers face enormous difficulties in conducting financial transactions relating to such deals. (swissinfo/reuters)  At the same time the Europeans, considered among the most significant Iranian oil customers, are studying the possibility of ceasing their purchases.  If such a decision was taken after the latest U.S. sanction measure its impact would be far more severe than a missile battle, because it would stifle Iran's economy and create intolerable pressures on the Iranian government."

"All the above provide indications of a serious escalation in a crisis that has been ongoing for years.  But recently the crisis has started to take a more dangerous juncture as certain questions are being raised in a more pressing manner, questions like will 2012 be the year of war?"

editor:  I don't see how one can look at these events closely and not conclude otherwise since the West-Russia-Japan realize Iran's nuclear-ballistic missile productions is a threat to resource security and not just in the Persian Gulf.  And an European Union diplomat stated today in Brussels, concerning discussions on an embargo of Iran's oil, "A lot of progress has been made.  The principle of an oil embargo is agreed.  It is not being debated anymore."  The only question is when and that could be at the EU Foreign Ministers  meeting January 30.

At the same time Iran's leadership is fully aware Allied governments will be forced to confront Iran militarily but in the meantime Teheran continues to send out conflicting signals/messages to give the misleading impression a negotiated solution is possible.  Another columnist for Asharq al-Awsat, Amir Taheri Iranian exile, has stated repeatedly Iran's leadership is an expert at sending conflicting signals in order to create confusion in the mind of the enemy.  But the West no longer believes in negotiation ever since Iran completed its satellite tests in early 2009 which has enabled Iran's military to produce ballistic missiles which can reach at least all of Western Europe and perhaps the U.S. East Coast.  At the same time Teheran wants as many missile launching platforms as possible since they realize Allied governments have prepared a massive air offensive against Iran.  And that is why Teheran is hoping Bashar al-Assad in Syria can cling to power at least until the spring. 

If so then Iran's Shahab-3 missile, which is mobile, can be launched from Syria's coast, perhaps from near Latakia.  The Shahab-3 has a 1,250 mile range that can reach the NATO command base near Naples which was used in the operation against Libya's Colonel Muammar Gadhafi and that could be the missile the Syrian observers are becoming familar with.  In the meantime Turkey Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu (hdn/ana) will be arriving in Teheran today for a two day visit and I suspect he will discuss the possibility of military cooperation with Iran when fighting resumes in the former Yugoslavia as it nearly did last year over Serbia's, Kosovo province.  Ankara is also opposed to the continued presence of NATO units in the former Yugoslavia and may therefore permit the Shahab-3 to be launched from Turkey and from there the missile can reach all of Italy.  In 2006 both Athens-Teheran signed security agreements with Serbia and if the Shahab-3 is launched from Greece then all of Western Europe could be targeted. 

Due to the financial crisis in Greece, and its reluctance to cooperate with Brussels, I doubt if Athens' opposition to the oil embargo against Iran is being seriuously considered by either Washington or Brussels.  Fortunately missile guidance systems are not precisely accurate and some of them can be intercepted, however there is still a chance some of them could come close enough to military/industrial/urban targets and cause significant damage.  And Ibrahim concluded his article by saying even during the 'tanker war' of the 1980s between Iran/Iraq oil shipments in the Strait of Hormuz were not completely cut off.

rfn=Cairo -  HDN/AFP report the U.S. State Department has announced Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs, Jeffrey Feltman is expected to arrive in Cairo to meet with the Arab League.  I assume this is to encourage the league to issue a call for international support for the Syrian opposition through the United Nations Security Council against Bashar al-Assad.

night watch:  rfn=PERSIAN GULF -  "Iran will not repeat its warning...the enemy's carrier has been moved to the Sea of Oman because of our drills. (xinhua) I recommend and emphasize to the American carrier not to return to the Persian Gulf.  I advise, recommend and warn them over the return of their carrier to the Persian Gulf because we are not in the habit of warning more than once."  Al-Arabiya/FNA reports that was the policy warning of Iran Army Commander Major-General Atoallah Salehi speaking to state news agency IRNA at the end of Iran's ten day naval maneuvers in the North Arabian Sea from the Gulf of Oman to the Gulf of Aden.  There has been no reported response from Washington or from its Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain as the Pentagon maintains at least one carrier in the Persian Gulf.  The aircraft carrier General Salehi was targeting was the USS John C. Stennis which entered Iran's manuver area as it left the gulf and entered the Sea of Oman.

rfn=Paris -  Meanwhile, in Paris, France Foreign Minister Alain Juppe stated over France's i>tele television program, "France wants sanctions toughened and the President (Nicolas Sarkozy) has made two concrete proposals on that front--the first being the freezing of Iranian Central Bank assets, a tough measure and the need of an embargo on Iranian oil exports.  Iran is pursuing the development of its nuclear arms, I have no doubt about it.  The last report by the International Atomic Energy Agency is quite explicit on this point."  Foreign Minister Juppe mentioned Washington was already in the process of imposing economic/oil sanctions and added, "We want the Europeans to take a similar step by January 30 to show our determination"  January 30 is the date for a scheduled meeting of the 27 Foreign Ministers of the European Union in Brussels.  Teheran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to oil sanctions.

rfn=Antakya -  "What is most likely now is that we will start a huge escalation of our operations.  If we feel the (monitors) are still not serious, in a few days, or at the most within a week, we will take a decision which will surprise the regime and the whole world."  Al-Arabiya/Reuters reports that was the warning from the head of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) Colonel Riad al-Asaad speaking by phone from southern Turkey.  Colonel Asaad added, "It will be a transformative shift in terms of the fighting and we hope the Syrian people will stand behind it."  It is quite possible the FSA now have heavier weapons which can at least disable the tanks of the Assad regime, the units which remain loyal to Bashar al-Assad.  Perhaps operations will begin simutaneously all over the country including the capital Damascus.

night watch:  rfn=ANKARA -  "When the turmoil and political (military) developments around our country are completed, I believe that 2012 will be a busy year for Turkey."  HDN/ANA report that was the statement/warning from President Abdullah Gul in his New Year message.  President Gul was being diplomatic when he said "political" developments because he and Turkey's military leadership realize full scale fighting in the former Yugoslavia nearly erupted again last year during the border crisis between Serbia and its Kosovo province.  And Ankara is not alone in its opposition to the continued military presence of troops from some NATO countries in the area which is the reason Turkey has improved its  relations with Serbia and sent Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu to Belgrade when the dispute began last summer.  And in 2006 both Athens-Teheran signed security agreements with Belgrade and I suspect Ankara is opposed to the Brussels based alliance to such an extent that Turkey will permit Iran to send an army through the country in support of Serbia and Greece when fighting begins quite possibly some time this year.

rfn=Chicago -  "We believe the government conducted a fair and open competition, making the right decision for the future of the program."  HDN/Reuters report that was the announcement by Norm Tew, Boeing Vice-President/Program Director of the "Ground Based Mid-Course Defense (GMD), the ballistic missile interception program of the Pentagon targeting missiles fired primarily from Iran.  The seven year contract is a continuation of Boeing's involvement in ballistic missile defense since 2001 and is in partnership with Northrup Grumman.  The system involves 32,000 kilometers (20,000  miles) of fiber optic communication network to cue interceptors in silos at Fort Greely Alaska and Vandenberg Air Force Base California.

rfn=Idlib -  Swissinfo/Reuters report Rami Adel Rahman, of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights based in London, announced the Free Syrian Army (FSA) seized two military checkpoints, controlled by the Assad regime, and captured dozens of regime soldiers in Idlib province in northern Syria bordering Turkey. (al-arabiya) This is a major development.  Assad regime checkpoints have been attacked before, ever since the FSA emerged during the summer, but none have ever been seized and this time regime soldiers were also captured.  I assume they are in Turkey now.  A third checkpoint was also attacked and an unspecified number of regime soldiers were wounded.  If the FSA can sustain this it could mean the beginning of a buffer zone along Turkey's border that the international community can reinforce.

night watch:  rfn=CAIRO -  "For this to happen in the presence of Arab monitors has roused the anger of the people and negates the purpose of sending a fact finding mission.  This is giving the Syrian regime an Arab cover for continuing its inhumane actions under the eyes and ears of the Arab League."   That was the angry announcement by Ali al-Salem al-Dekbas, Chairman of the Arab League Parliament, an 88 member Advisory Committee, Al-Jazeera/Reuters due to the lack of cooperation by Bashar al-Assad and his military dictatorship.  The Assad regime had pledged to withdraw military units from cities and to release political prisoners.  None of that has happened since the observer mission arrived one week ago in what was planned to be a month long observer process.  To make matters worse, the head of the mission, General Mohammed Ahmed Mustafa al-Dabi, from Sudan, has embarrassed the League further by denying one of the observers in Daraa saw regime snipers on rooftops.  Yesterday the observer was shown on video saying he saw them with his own eyes but now General al-Dabi stated over the BBC News Hour program, "But he didn't see (snipers)."

This has already added more ridicule of the mission head, the Sudanese General who (asharq al-awsat/reuters) eagerly served the oppressive Khartoum government and its head of state Omar al-Bashir wanted for war crimes committed in Darfur.  Mshari al-Zaydi colunmist for Asharq al-Awsat is already telling General al-Dabi to go back to Khartoum and investigate the war crimes he participated in there.  Tariq Alhomayed writes, "It seems that we have observed the first genuine Arab observer in Syria with potentially more to come from the group of what I previously termed the delegation of Arab spectators."  Tariq noticed the observer who complained about the snipers in Daraa was speaking with a North African dialect.  And now this Arab Parliament, the 88 member advisory body, was the first to recommend Syria's suspension from the League.  Their view to end the mission, after just one week, will be taken seriously and may result in the League calling for international intervention through the United Nations.

night watch:  rfn=DAMASCUS -  "If the regime fails to meet the commitments it made, there is no other solution except going to the Security Council." That was Burhan Ghailoun, President of the Syrian National Council (SNC) Swissinfo/Reuters reported was speaking to Al Jazeera television after the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, based in London, stated 27 people were killed Friday during the mass demonstrations across the country.  President Ghalioun continued, "As you saw the regime is still using snipers and is still using Shabiha (militia) and is still preventing people from protesting in public places."  Ziad, an activist in Douma, a suburb of the capital stated, "We don't know what to do.  But we know Assad and his regime won't give us what we want.  So why should we wait for them (international community) to help us?  The army didn't attack people once the monitors arrived.  The army has hidden its weapons and they were stopping people by throwing stones.  We have not seen them do that for six or seven months, they even ran away from us."

rfn=Douma -  Ghailoun's decision to now consider calling on the United Nations is significant because before yesterday he was against international intervention.  And now the Arab League monitors are incensed after seeing regime snipers in Daraa.  It was an enormously colossal mistake since the monitors entered the country in he spirit of not wanting to see much of anything and were trying to work with the regime.  The snipers could even have shot the monitors by mistake.   Al Jazeera's news video showed one of the angry monitors saying, "We saw snipers in the town, we saw them with our own eyes.  We are going to ask the government to remove them immediately.  We'll be in touch with the Arab League back in Cairo.  If the snipers are not gone in 24 hours then there will be other measures taken."

rfn=Antakya -  Correspondent Hashem Adelbarra, reporting from Antakya in Turkey's Hatay province on Syria's border stated, "Since yesterday we've been getting more statements from observers very very critical of the situation there.  This is going to force the international community to take drastic action. "  The monitors in Daraa were within "hearing distance" when security forces opened fire on demonstrators and the monitors (asharq al-awsat) have actually been meeting families of the victims of the regime and have taken notes.  This dramatically increases the chance of the monitors reporting back to League offices in Cairo and recommending a new United Nations Security Council resolution calling for protection of civilians, in other words military intervention as was in the case in Libya.

rfn=Teheran -  "Sanctions on Iran's oil will drive up the price of oil to at least 200 dollars per barrel."  Asharq al-Awsat/AFP report that was the warning from Iran Oil Minister Rostam Qasemi if governments in the West impose sanctions on Iran's oil industry.  This is not a new warning, not even the price is new, and I assume Allied governments have plans in place to meet any reduction of exports from Iran.  I believe Riyadh has already stated it is prepared to increase production.  The European Union (EU) is still planning to seriously consider applying sanctions at its meeting in Brussels late in January due to Iran's continued development of nuclear warheads for its inter-continental ballistic missiles.  The missiles are the result of Iran's successful satellite tests.

night watch:  rfn=BEIRUT -  Dorsa Jabberi, Al Jazeera correspondent filed this report from Beirut on Friday's massive demonstrations across Syria which took place in 18 provinces: (asharq al-awsat) "One of the biggest demonstrations is near the capital Damascus.  Activists have called on all residents to try and reach the center of the city.  In Damascus...they are being met by security forces who have used tear gas, according to many of the residents nearby.  We know that large demonstrations are also under way in the city of Homs, Hama as well as Idlib, where we've seen images of observers along with the demonstrators in the midst of it all."  Omar Hamza, a resident in the Damascus suburb of Douma, stated security forces opened fire on people who had gathered at a mosque after midday prayers, "More than 100 people are injured right now.  It is a very bad situation in Douma today."

rfn=Barzeh -  Al Jazeera television showed a huge crowd of demonstrators in Homs dancing, shouting, "Revolution, revolution Syria, revolution of glory and freedom Syria."  In the Damascus suburb of Barzeh demonstrators carried signs that said, "The monitors are witnesses who don't see anything."  But it will be difficult for the monitors to miss the mass demonstrations across the northwest province of Idlib because, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights based in London, more than 250,000 people demonstrated in 74 locations across the province.  Naharnet/AFP quoted activist Anwar Omran, "Hama witnessed huge massive demonstrations with protesters numbering around 300,000."  There were several instances where demonstrators met the security forces with rocks and reports from Douma said there was fighting between security forces and the Free Syrian Army (FSA).

rfn=Antakya -  "I issued an order to stop all operations from the day the committee entered Syria last Friday.  All operations against the regime are to be stopped except in a situation of self defense."  Al-Arabiya/Agencies report that was the announcement by the commander of the FSA, Colonel Riad al-Asaad.  There has been no word on when the Arab League will end its observer mission.  Concerning the monitors Colonel Asaad stated, "We have tried to communicate with them and we requested a meeting with the team. (swissinfo/reuters) So far there haven't been any success.  We haven't been given any of the (phone) numbers for the members which we have requested.  No one has contacted us either."  There were also violent confrontations between (al-arabiya) regime units and demonstrators in Daraa, near Jordan's border where anti-Assad demonstrations first erupted in March and in the eastern city of Deir el-Zor.

rfn=Beijing -  "Both sides exchanged views on Sino-Iranian relations and regional issues."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the terse announcement by China's Foreign Ministry as its Vice Foreign Minister Zhai Jun ended his two day visit to Teheran meeting Iran Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi and other officials.  No details on the discussions were provided which is hardly surprising due to the rapidly deteriorating relations between Western governments and Iran.  Vice Foreign Minister Jun's visit comes as Iran entered the seventh day of its ten day exercises in the North Arabian Sea and today tested some of its long range missiles using technology from China. (al-arabiya) Beijing even provided Iran with guidance systems for its anti-ship cruise missile (hdn) as China's Central government realized Iran's foreign policy had the potential of weakening three of China's rivals, the West-India-Russia.

The West-Russia have been responding by supporting Chinese separatists groups and Beijing has begun to make other arrangements for its supply of oil as China's leaders realize that even a month from now the supply of oil from the Persian Gulf could be disrupted.  Jun must also realize Allied governments have prepared a massive air offensive against Iran.  Jun may be there to say good bye and thank you, have a happy war.

night watch:  rfn=NORTH ARABIAN SEA -  "A U.S. Aircraft Carrier was spotted inside the maneuver zone...by a navy reconnaissance aircraft. (xinhua) We are prepared, in accordance with international law, to confront offenders who do not respect our security perimeters during maneuvers.  We suggest that trans-regional forces completely and seriously take any warning issued by any unit of naval forces."  HDN/AFP report that was the warning by Commodore Mahmoud Mousavi, official spokesman of Iran's ten day naval maneuvers in the North Arabian Sea from the Gulf of Aden to the Gulf of Oman, speaking through IRNA.  The carrier strike group spotted was led by the USS John C. Stennis (swissinfo/reuters) as it entered the Strait of Hormuz Wednesay as the U.S. announced any action to close the strait "will not be tolerated."

rfn=Brussels -  Teheran has threatened to close the strait if Western governments impose oil sanctions in response to Iran's development of intercontinental ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads (swissinfo/reuters) and Brussels, headquarters of the European Union (EU), seems ready to do just that late next month.  HDN/AFP report Michael Mann, spokesman for the EU foreign policy stated, "We expect the decision will be taken in time for the Foreign Affairs Council on January 30."  Yesterday, France Foreign Ministery spokesman Bernard Valero stated, "The Strait of Hormuz is an international strait.  Therefore all ships, no matter what flag they fly, have the right of transit passage.  As with human rights and nuclear proliferation, we are calling on the Iranian authorities to respect international law and in particular the freedom to navigate in international waters and straits."

rfn=Strait of Hormuz - Tariq Alhomayed, in his column today in Asharq al-Awsat, addresses the issue encompassing the Strait of Hormuz in his article 'Has Iran Hastened the War?' "Iran's fiery rhetoric today may hasten the outbreak of a coming war, whilst Teheran threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz will convince the international community of the legitimacy of breaking the bones of the Iranian regime, particularly as Teheran's hands are intervening in many areas of our region.  Indeed, Iran is responsible for complicating the entire situation, and threatening the stability of our region as a whole, whether we are talking about the situation in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon or the Gulf."

"Anything is possible...Wars are preceded by talk and the statements-or the war of words between Iran and the West are now wide open.  Iran has granted the war legitimacy in the eyes of the international community. Israel will find itself at the center of an unprecendented international coalition to break the bones of this reckless regime in Iran."

editor:  International shipping and maritime traffic are the ultimate red line.  Every nation's economy depends on it.

rfn=Homs -  "The observers saw a lot of violence in the city.  They saw how security forces shot at protests.  They also saw the bodies of dead people.  The monitors also saw destruction in the city.  One of the observers asked residents of Baba Amr neighborhood, 'how can you live in this place?'"  Al Jazeera reports that was the statement from Homs activist Hadi Abdullah as he watched the monitors from the Arab League confront the reality of the situation in the city known as the 'Capital of the Revolution.'  Seventy people have been killed across the country since the monitors began to arrive Monday and more than thirty were killed today mainly in suburbs of Damascus.  After four people were killed by security forces in the suburb of Douma enraged people staged a mass demonstration, a sit in.  Rami Abdul Rahman, with the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, based in London, explained, "The activists have called for complete civil disobedience.  The roads have been blocked, stores are shut down and the city is paralyzed."

Despite the criticism of the Arab League monitors (al arabiya) Rami admitted the monitors are a "ray of light" in a dark tunnel and have emboldened the demonstrators as Syria's Facebook Revolution (naharnet/afp) announced more mass protests this coming Friday, "The Arab League's initiative is the only ray of light that we now see.  The presence of the observers in Homs broke the barrier of fear."

night watch:  rfn=DOHA -  As a result of witnessing the fighting and death toll in Syria constantly increase this month, in flagrant violation of the Arab League protocol, Qatar is leading the regional effort to create a military unit in support of the Free Syrian Army.  PressTV/Debka report the unit of 2,500 is being financed by Doha, which played a leading role in the revolt against Libya Colonel Muammar Gadhafi and 1,000 of the fighters are coming from Libya.  Other fighters have been recruited from Iraq.  This new force is under the direction of Qatar military Chief of Staff Major-General Hamas Ali al-Attiya.  They have already been airlifted to Antakya in Turkey's Hatay province and are being formed into brigades/battalions with the full support of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Western governments.  No word yet on how large this unit will become but they will be operating in support of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) believed to number 20,000 and concentrate on the area of Idlib, Jabal al-Zawiya in the north and in Homs the central city called the "Capital of the Revolution."

rfn=Homs -  "We felt like we were shouting into a void.  We placed our hopes in the entire Arab League.  But these monitors don't seem to understand how the regime works, they don't seem interested in the suffering and deaths people have faced.  I felt they didn't really acknowledge what they've seen--maybe they have been ordered not to show support.  But they didn't seem enthusiastic about hearing people tell their stories."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the critical observation by Syrian activist Omar as he watched the Arab League monitors headed by Lieutenant-General (ret.) Mustafa Dabi from Sudan in the city of Homs which had just gone through several days of bombardment by the Assad regime.  General Dabi stated what he saw was "reassuring".  This should not be surprising since his career was marked by suppressing revolts (asharq al-awsat) in Sudan including in Darfur.

rfn=Damascus -  In his angry column for Asharq al-Awsat today Tariq Alhomayed calls the monitors Syria: A Delegation of Arab Spectators, "We are deluding ourselves, and the Syrian people, when our media repeats the expression 'a delegation of Arab monitors'.  For this is nothing more than a delegation of Arab spectators, who have no initiative or capability whatsoever.  Nothing can be expected from their visit to Syria other than for the al-Assad regime (al jazeera) being provided more opportunities to kill the unarmed Syrian people."

rfn=Strait of Hormuz -  "If they (Western governments) impose sanctions against Iranian oil exports then even one drop of oil cannot flow from the Strait of Hormuz." Swissinfo/Reuters reports that was the policy statement by Iran Vice-President Mohammed Reza Rahimi as Iran's Navy is continuing its ten day exercise in the Arabian Sea.  Today Iran's naval chief Rear Admiral Habibulah Sayari pronounced, "Closing the Strait of Hormuz for Iran's armed forces (swissinfo/reuters) is really easy...or as Iranians say it will be easier than drinking a glass of water."  Washington is attempting to dismiss these statments as an "element of bluster".  But Teheran realizes it has been preparing for full scale war with the West ever since the end of the 1980-88 Iran/Iraq war and disrupting the maritime traffic in the strait, however briefly will cause an economic crisis in the industrialized world.

night watch:  rfn=HOMS -  "There are at least 70,000 protesters. (hdn) They are marching towards the city center and the security forces are trying to stop them."  Al-Arabiya/Agencies report that was the announcement by Rami Abdel Rahman with the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights based in London, as the Assad regime suspended bombardment of Homs for the brief duration of the visit by 50 monitors from the Arab League. (al-jazeera)  Activists report at least 61 people were killed in the bombardment Monday and I suspect the death toll would have been a lot higher if it were not for the presence of fighters from the Free Syrian Army (FSA) which managed to inflict some losses on the regime's forces.  Burhan Ghalioun, President of the opposition Syrian National Council (SNC) (asharq al-awsat) stated, "The regime is holding the observers in their hotel as hostages and does not provide them with their security requirements or means of transportation."

HDN/Reuters reports, Tamir a construction worker in the Khalidiya district observed, "It's been completely quiet the whole morning, (naharnet) so we've got to use the time and hold a protest.  I haven't heard or seen anything that suggests tanks are leaving.  I don't believe it.  Earlier today I was on my roof where we can see six of the tanks in the area, three are in the roundabout, three are in another, they are still there."  Activist suspects a lot of tanks are in hiding.

rfn=Istanbul -  Khaled Khoja, representative of the SNC spoke to HDN's Ipek Yezdani in Istanbul, "I believe that the Arab League will call back the monitoring mission in a week or so, because the Syrian regime will not show the real face of the operations towards civilians in Syria.  There is nothing the Arab League can do anymore.  Now is the time for Western countries to move and take the issue to the UN Security Council.  Although it looks early for the international community to make a decision like their creating a buffer zone is an inevitable solution to stop the violence in Syria.  We also back the human corridor proposal of France.  There should be also UN Observers in Syria."

rfn=Beirut -  Speaking from the frontline state of Lebanon, Naharnet reports former Prime Minister Saad Hariri recommended, "The Arab League should go to the UN and seek a no-fly zone and if Russia vetoes then a joint force should be formed with Turkey.  Bashar al-Assad thinks he can out smart the Arab League and the whole world, he will fall so hard."  I will be extremely surprised if Moscow vetoes any Arab League proposal and if the observation of SNC representative Khoja is correct then the League will end its mission to Syria before January is half over.  They will depart realizing they had no real cooperation from the Assad regime and no real impact on events on the ground and may then call for a new Security Council resolution calling for military support/protection of civilians.

night watch:  rfn=HOMS -  "The Baba Amr (district) of Homs is being exposed to fierce shelling from heavy machine gun fire, armed vehicles and mortars.  The violence is definitely two sided. (hdn/ana) I've seen ambulances filled with wounded soldiers passing by my window in the past days."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the account from a Homs resident speaking by phone.  Activists report the pre-dawn offensive began after five days of shelling which has killed 50 people and wounded 250.  Activists report today's action has killed 23 so far (al-arabiya) but the death toll is expected to rise with many bodies trapped beneath the rubble of damaged homes and buildings.  A man's voice shouted in the phone to Reuters over the sounds of a woman's screams, "This is Baba Amr December 26, 2011 and the random shelling is still falling in the neighborhood.  These are the martyrs thrown in the streets."

rfn=Damascus -  "The situation on the ground in Syria represents compelling evidence and proof that the Syrian regime is in a state of political delusion whilst the country is experiencing a state of complete lawlessness."  That is one of the telling observations by Hussein Shobokshi in his latest column in Asharq al-Awsat on the Syrian situation:  "Even the two major cities which the al-Assad regime boasted were safe and secure, have joined the revolution.  Protests have broken out in Aleppo and Damascus and there have been numerous detainees and casualties there.  This brought on a regime wide fit of hysteria and the Syrian forces continue to kill their own people.  Over the past few days the death toll has reached terrifying proportions, whilst the al-Assad regime also reportedly systematically evacuated detainees being held in Homs, Hama, Deir Ezzor and Idlib prisons transferring them by night to Latakia."

"This is not to forget the increasing number of defections from the Syrian military and security apparatus, which is a problem that the regime is now encountering on a daily basis.  Add to this the enormous number of young men "refusing" to join the army in the first place and the al-Assad regime's crisis is compounded.  We must also not forget collective civil disobedience campaign that is stil occurring in most Syrian cities, whilst the Syrian economy is collapsing on all levels."

rfn=Ankara -  "Turkey will do everything to prevent a meeting on Syria and other key topics under the aegis of France."  Cooperation between Western governments and Ankara is at an end as a result of the vote in France's Parliament (hdn/afp) last week that stated Ottoman/Turkish troops committed genocide in Armenia in 1915.  HDN reports the quote was from a Turkish diplomat as he announced the new retaliatory policy from Turkey's leadership to block all of France's influence, not only in West Asia (Middle East) but in the Caucasus as well.  The French have a long, arrogant history of disrupting international cooperation and alliances which is what I sometimes call an evil with a clown face foreign policy and the Armenian vote is just another chaos creating example.  Washington understandably is extremely disturbed at this turn of events as the U.S. is desperately trying to keep Turkey from cooperating with Iran. 

But all Paris has done is driven an enormous wedge between any current or future cooperation with Ankara as Turkey could have had a major role in regional security with the West.  France's decision is based on its hatred of Turkey's former Ottoman Empire and all Muslim people.  It is Paris which has historically led the West's delusional obsession to rule the Middle East and Turkey's regional influence is an enormous obstacle to France's own private grand design.  France's Parliament has been stupidly debating this Armenian vote for more than ten years and now, during one of the most critical times in the region's history, France decides to disrupt any chance for more international cooperation at least on Syria.  France's establishment takes demonic delight in such timing.

rfn=Arabian Sea -  Xinhua has provided a news video on Iran's naval exercises in the Arabian Sea.

night watch:  rfn=MALATYA PROVINCE -  "The early warning radar system will become operational next week before the end of the year."  HDN reports that was the announcement by a Turkish official concerning the anti-ballistic missile early warning radar system soon to become operational at a military installation in Kurceik in Turkey's eastern Malatya province near Iran.  The Pentagon is positioning a U.S. AN/TIPY-2 (X-band) early warning system which I assume is integrated with the missile interception systems the U.S.-Russia have in Azerbaijan, and interception systems in Poland-Israel.  They should be able to intercept ballistic missiles fired from Iran before they begin their downward trajectory.  The Pentagon is also positioning warships in the Eastern Mediterranean with missile interception capability.

rfn=Kotka -  In a parallel development custom officials in Finland have seized 69 surface to air Patriot missiles in the Finland port of Kotka 75 miles from Helsinki. HDN/AFP report the head of Finland's Customs Anti-Crime Unit, Petri Lounatmaa stated, "The ship's Captain and First Mate have been detained."  The ship is the British registered Thor Liberty owned by the Danish firm Thorco with a Ukranian crew.  The ship was loaded in Germany and, according to the German television station NDR, the cargo was headed to South Korea but after further investigation it was discovered they were really enroute to Shanghai.  Regular readers of this site know that for more than a decade an international clandestine war has been going on between Allied governments attempting to intercept and disrupt Iran's network of weapons trafficking of high technology weapons systems.  Teheran has established, with the eager assistance of China's Central Government, an extensive network of suppliers which will ship the weaponry to a country with no trade embargo with Iran.

night watch:  rfn=HOMS -  Spiegel International has written and extremely courageous and well connected article on the Syrian revolt against the police state administration of Bashar al-Assad which has just welcomed the advance team of the Arab League with two suicide bomb attacks in Damascus (hdn).  I suspect it was the idea of Teheran in order to give the Assad regime a chance to accuse (al-arabiya) the Syrian opposition and already the SNC (hdn/afp) has stated it was the regime which set off the explosions outside the headquarters (al jazeera) of the General Intelligence Agency.  But I would not be surprised if this clumsy attempt to mislead the international community and Assad's suppporters backfires and instead it increases the sense among the population that the regime is now losing control in Damascus which has seen constant protests in the suburbs.  For obvious reasons the author(s) of the article had to remain unnamed.  The following are excerpts: "The consensus of peaceful protests, which had lasted until the late summer, is literally dead. (swissinfo/reuters) The fighters (Free Syrian Army) mostly army defectors, have filled the vacuum.  It is unclear whether this FSA actually consists of more than 15,000 soldiers but its numbers are increasing by the day."

"In Homs, at any rate, it has managed to turn a drab, working class suburb, into a symbol of hope. (asharq al-awsat)  Baba Amr, a poor district in the southwestern part of the city, is the first liberated area in central Syria.  Within these three square kilometers everything is different. (al jazeera)  At the first FSA checkpoint, the men salute and introduce themselves by stating their rank and the name of the unit.  They have weapons, but only two uniform jackets which they put on to pose for photos.  There are armed guards at almost every corner, and small units of a dozen men each are posted behind sandbags and barricades at various points along the perimeter of the neighborhood which is home to 50,000 people.  Families from the neighborhood bring food to the men who are armed with Kalashnikovs and a few RPG's (rocket propelled grenades)."

"Baba Amr is protected by a total of 500 soldiers under the command of the defected Lieutenant-Colonel Abdul-Razak Tlas, a distant nephew of the fomer Defense Minister.  On the day he disappeared, (naharnet) says Colonel Tlas, he received calls from Generals in his neighborhood, who said, 'Come back! We'll make sure you won't have any problem.  You'll get money, a lot of money!'  A few days later others called and threatened, 'If you don't turn yourself in we'll kill your wife and children.' But the family had already gone into hiding by then.  The Army (regime) withdrew after heavy fighting in November and its positions are only seperated from the FSA by 25 meters.  Committees handle the distribution of food and water as well as the electricity supply.  Defectors from the Army and doctors are coming from around the country.  Couriers bring money and medications.  Shepherds discreetly drive their herds along the edges of the neighborhoods."

"Even Friday prayers of the local mosques have taken on a secular tone; 'And if you should have diesel in your house share it with others!  If you have food share it!  Open your houses to the refugees!  God is with the charitable!  Also the hospital needs blood donors!  Rh negative!'  A chain smoking trio - a greengrocer, the manger of a chain of perfume stores, also a computer scientist - controls Baba Amr's contact with the outside world.  In the apartment the group uses as its headquarters, Sheikhs stumble across the tangle of cables coming from several computers, the phones ring all night long, students upload videos (swissinfo/reuters) of the most recent protests and the shooting victims and hand grenades, ash trays and coffee cups are piled high on overloaded tables.  Everyone talks nonstop.  In the past, Syria was a country of paranoid suspicion.  But in the months of the insurrection, an unprecedented atmosphere of trust has developed."

"Strangers open their doors when a deserter or the injured need a place to hide.  Passerbys warn drivers about new sniper positions and checkpoints.  Doctors treat the injured in government hospitals even though a single denunciation could mean a death sentence for them. (al jazeera) The regime is now being infiltrated itself.  Informants in the military and intelligence services warn activists of arrests, pass lists of people being suspect and reveal the government attack plans.  But the regime still holds up."

editor:  The anticipated offensive on Homs has not yet taken place as the article mentioned the regime has positioned 200-300 tanks on the city's outskirts. (naharnet) The units commanders are of course from the ruling Alawite community though the article mentioned even some of the Alawites in Homs are opposed to Assad.  Most of the soldiers are from the majority Sunni community which has been the most oppressed and persecuted even before the revolt.  Loyal militias to Assad are ready to fire on any soldier/unit not obeying orders to attack.  But with the number of defectors increasing daily it is quite possible serious fighting could erupt among units waiting around Homs.

night watch:  rfn=KFAR OWAID -  "They are trying to buy time, one hour after another, hoping to gain the upper hand on the ground."  HDN/AP report that was a Syrian activist speaking from what is left of the northern mountainous village of Kfar Owaid  near Turkey's border as forces of the Assad regime unleashed an hours long barrage of tank/artillery shells, rocket and machine gun fire in an attempt to inflict as much damage as possible to the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and anti-regime protesters.  The activist was describing the assault on Tuesday by regime forces which killed at least 100 people. (naharnet/afp) The offensive was timed for just before the arrival of the observer mission of the Arab League which anti-regime groups do not take seriously.  Already the Facebook Syrian Revolution page is calling this Friday's protest the "Protocol of Death-License to Kill".

The activist from Kfar Owaid described the assault as an "organized massacre" (al jazeera) as "thousands of soldiers and special forces have deployed, there are tanks and checkpoints every few meters, snipers everywhere."  Swissinfo/Reuters report the regime is continuing its offensive by sending tanks and armored personnel carriers into the village of Khan Sheikhoun.  In the meantime yesterday, Wednesday, there was heavy fighting between regime forces and the FSA in the town of Dael in southern Daraa province near Jordan's border.  Fifteen members of the security forces were killed in the fighting.

rfn=Baghdad -  "Our latest reports put the toll at 63 killed and 185 wounded by the series of bomb attacks in Baghdad."  Xinhua reports that was the announcement by a source in Baghad as Iraq's capital was hit by the most serious wave of attacks this year, definitely the most extensive.  Four car bombs, ten roadside bombs and a rocket barrage (xinhua) hit every area of the capital.  Obviously this is highly coordinated by every unit controlled by Teheran:  Sunni Islamists connected to al-Qaeda and Shia militias.  I suspect Teheran wants Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to declare a state of emergency (hdn/reuters/ap/afp) and assume dictatorial powers suspending Parliament which has already experienced the walkout of its largest bloc, Iraqiya and the attempted arrest of one of his Vice-Presidents who is now in hiding in the Kurdish region.  The chief spokesman for Baghdad security operations, General Qassim al-Moussawi summed it up by saying, "We live in complicated circumstances in a complicated political scene and there is a conspiracy on Iraq from within."

Tariq Alhomayed makes some telling obervations on the deteriorating situation in today's Asharq al-Awsat in his column "The Shiite Saddam": 'Compare the political mindset of Iraq Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki with that of his neighbor (Assad) and you will find that there is no difference between the two...Thus, the problem with what Nuri al-Maliki is doing today in Iraq is that he is threatening the entire political process with failure and collapse...There are facts and much glaring evidence on the ground, including statements made by al-Maliki in a recent press conference, suggests that Iraq today is on the verge of witnessing the collapse of its political process and being ruled by a purely sectarian regime.'

rfn=Arabian Sea -  HDN/AP reports Iran Naval commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari announced to media today in Teheran that Iran will begin its ten day naval exercises on Saturday (fna) beyond the Strait of Hormuz in the Arabian Sea from the Gulf of Aden to the Persian Gulf.  Swissinfo/Reuters report the maneuvers have been designated Velayat (supremacy) - 90 and will cover an area of 1,250 miles (2,000 km) which strangely enough circumnavigates the Arabian peninsula. (mna) It is no coincidence this was timed the same week as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) held its annual meeting in Riyadh and they issued a near ultimatum for Iran to end its interference in neighboring countries.  And of course one of Teheran's responses has been the wave of bomb/rocket attacks across Baghdad.

night watch:  rfn=JABAL AL-ZAWAIYA -  "Some of those killed cannot be recognized.  Some were burnt and beheaded with their hands tied.  We are really scared because the area might be stormed once again."  Al Jazeera reports that was the account by Syrian opposition member Alaa Ein Din Al-Youssef in Idlib, the province in Syria's northwest which borders Turkey and has been the scene of the heaviest fighting between the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and units loyal to Bashar al-Assad.  Youssef was describing one of the massacres committed by Assad regime security forces in the area of Jabal al-Zawaiya.  Correspondent Zeina Khodr, reporting from Antakya, Turkey near the border observed, "It is clear that army defectors have taken control over some towns and villages, almost as though they have created some sort of safe area, where protesters from other regions were seeking a safe haven and where defectors were able to operate from.  If defectors really take over the province, it will give them a supply line to Turkey and create a safe zone which they have been demanding for some time now."

rfn=Paris -  It is obvious Bashar al-Assad and his police state administration realize the importance and implications of the of the FSA establishing a supply line to Turkey which has been the most critical government of Assad.  And that is why the regime's military action here is so severe as heavy fighting continues between the regime and the FSA.  Swissinfo/Reuters reports in Paris, Bernard Valero, France Foreign Ministry spokesman announced, "There was a massacre of an unprecedented scale in Syria on Tuesday.  It is urgent that the (naharnet/afp) United Nations Security Council issues a firm resolution that calls for an end to the repression."  Al-Arabiya/Agencies report the Syrian National Council announced the deaths of "250 fallen heroes during a 48 hour period" and is also calling for an emergency session of the UN Security Council "to discuss the regime's massacres in Zawiyah mountain, Idlib and Homs in particular."

rfn=New York -  But instead of discussing the crucial situation in Syria (asharq al-awsat/reuters) Security Council members are instead discussing Israeli settlements.

rfn=Jerusalem -  HDN/JPost report U.S. Lieutenant-General Frank Gorenc, commander of the Third Air Force Base in Germany, has arrived in Israel to complete preparations for a missile interception drill between the U.S.-Israel.  The U.S. will use its Terminal High Altitude Defense (THAAD) and Aegis ballistic missile defense system to simulate the interception of missile salvos from Iran.  Israel will be using its Arrow, Patriot and Iron Dome system.  U.S. command posts will be established in Israel and an Israel Army command post will be established at EUCOM headquarters in Germany.

night watch:  rfn=TUNIS -  "If the Syrian regime continues its violent repression the SNC (Syrian National Council) will resort to Arab dissuasion forces.  We need to make use of force in a limited way and in specific areas.  We want civilians and insurgents to tbe protected and secure, protected zones to be created."  Naharnet/AFP reports that was the policy statement by Burhan Ghalioun President of the Syrian National Council (SNC) speaking from Tunis as he dismissed reports of the Assad regime signing the Arab League protocol, describing it as "worthless."  President Ghailoun is sounding more like the head of a government-in-exile and I suspect he may have been receiving pledges of military support from representatives of Arab governments increasingly opposed to Bashar al-Assad.

rfn=Kafruwed -  This comes as the Assad regime machine gunned sixty soldiers who attempted to defect Monday in the northwest and more than forty civilians have been killed in other action.  Al-Arabiya/Agencies report the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, based in London, quoted activists, "After clashes that broke out this morning with the regular army, 100 deserters were beseiged then killed or wounded between (swissinfo/reuters) the village of Kafruwed and Al-Fatira" in the Jabal al-Zawia district.  Concerning the agreement signed by the Assad regime, activist Abu Hamza said the regime "has signed something it cannot implement.  This will ultimately lead to the downfall of the regime" because the regime knows as soon as the military is withdrawn from the cities mass demonstrations will break out.

rfn=Riyadh -  "Stop these policies and practices...and stop interfering in the internal affairs."  Al-Arabiya reports that was the statement released by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) during its annual meeting in Riyadh.  This near ultimatum did not mention publicly an "or else" but I suspect there is an understanding by the governments, led by Saudi Arabia, that the GCC is ready for the worse-military confrontation that will defeat Teheran's attempt to control the resources of the Persian Gulf.

rfn=Rome -  At the same time Swissinfo/Reuters reports an informal group of "like minded nations" held a closed door meeting in Rome, under the auspices of Italy's Foreign Ministry to plan further sanctions on Iran because of its nuclear/ballistic missile programs.  These meetings have been conducted for two years and have never attracted much publicity but due to Iran's progress in placing nuclear warheads on ballistic missiles these gatherings have taken on a greater sense of urgency.  The participants are the European Union, U.S.-Japan-Australia-South Korea and other governments, which could mean Russia.

night watch:  rfn=SRINAGAR -  "Elimination of a large number of guerrillas in the hinterland this year has created a vacuum in the terrorist leadership and their effectiveness.  Therefore, there is pressure on the terrorists in the training camps/launch pads in PoK (Pakistan Occupied Kashmir) to infiltrate."  WebIndia123/IANS report that was part of a statement released by the Public Relations Office of the India Army on the situation in Kashmir, the disputed territory divided between India/Pakistan.  The statement continued, "This has been corroborated by intelligence inputs of various intelligence agencies which have indicated presence of an additional 100 militants across the LoC (Line of Control) poised for infiltration.  Traditionally, infiltrations decrease with the onset of snow, but due to the late winter, terrorists as in the past, will make desperate attempts to infiltrate in the coming few months."

The weather is an enormous factor in South Asian wars and with the late winter it is quite possible next month we may hear that India is rushing reinforcements to meet the new infiltration as was the case in January 1990 just two months after Pakistan began the Islamic uprising in Kashmir November 1989.  It is an uprising supported by Teheran and in February 2007 Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf presented Iran's leadership with his Action Plan.  Infiltration teams, supported by cover fire from Pakistan Rangers, are the vanguard of the offsensive plan designed to force Delhi to use its hot pursuit policy which India nearly did after the Mumbai attacks November 2008.  MNA is reporting one of the leaders of Kashmir groups opposed to India's rule, Choudhury Abdad Majid, met with an Iranian media group December 15 in Islamabad and stated, "The future of Kashmir has to be decided by the people of Kashmir.  Every nation has to respect self-determination.  Almost the majority of the Kashmiri people have decided their choice, they want to join Pakistan.  We don't want independence or an autonomous region."

Beijing also supports Islamabad's position since China also has territorial disputes with India, especially over India's northeast state of Arunachal Pradesh which China invaded for one month October 1962.  That is why Beijing established strategic relations with Pakistan in 1951 and has been the main supporter of both Pakistan-Iran's nuclear ballistic missile programs.  A couple of years ago India positioned two more divisions in its northeast and constructed more airstrips.  I don't think China's invasion will be successful this time but it will attract a lot of India's attention away from Pakistan-Iran.  India may also have to contend with warlords from Afghanistan entering the conflict and Islamic groups on its border with Bangladesh.

General Musharraf has been in London for the past several years but is expected to return to Pakistan in late March 2012.

night watch:  rfn=QUSAYR -  "Three armored vehicles were destroyed and those inside were killed."  Asharq al-AwsatAFP that was the statement released by the London based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights on the fighting between the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and units of the Assad regime near Lebanon's border in the village of Qusayr.  The human rights groups also said 29 people were wounded and one killed when Security Forces of the Assad regime opened fire in Idlib province and in two of its villages Iblin and Ahdita.  And the regime has cut off all communication from Maaret al-Numan because the city has been supporting the general strike for a week.  In southern Daraa province most villages have also been supporting the strike as the regime attempts to remove roadblocks erected in the villages of Zeizun and al-Ajami.  At the same time armed confrontations are ongoing between the FSA and the Assad regime in both the nortwest and south.  The fighting near Lebanon's border seems to be one of the first engagements there and it killed a regime officer.

rfn=Damascus -  Naharnet/AFP/AP report, in addition to the six Assad regime soldiers killed Sunday, twenty civilians were also killed by the regime.  This comes as international media is giving a lot of publicity to the regime supposedly accepting the peace proposal by the Arab League.  However, according Tariq Alhomayed Editor in Chief of Asharq al-Awsat, Bashar al-Assad and his police state regime are not serious about any peace proposal no matter where the "initiative" comes from:  Moscow-Baghdad-Doha.  "The al-Assad regime is not serious especially as its killing machine has not stopped, but rather has been intensifying ever since the Arabs mobilized over the Syrian issue.  There are approximately 50 killings taking place per day, and information suggests that the al-Assad regime is planning further delays and procrastinations, and even if it signs (an initiative) at the last minute."

editor:  Mr. Alhomayed's points are extremely well taken and what is especially disgusting is the support Assad is receiving from the Algeria government during these Arab League meetings as the killing and oppression (al-arabiya) continues.  Sometimes I suspect these conferences are used by the delegates and governments for the sake of their image while the reality on the ground, not to mention in prisons and torture chambers, is really quite different.  Anyone who believes Bashar al-Assad will allow international monitors in the country and end the oppression is living in a state of mind more unreal than that of the Assad regime.

night watch:  rfn=DOHA -  "If the Syrian crisis is not resolved within two weeks, the matter will be beyond the control of Arab countries."  Xinhua reports that was the warning from Qatar Prime/Foreign Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani speaking at a televised press conference in Doha after a meeting of just a few Foreign Ministers from the Arab League.  A larger meeting had been postponed, again, now scheduled for perhaps (al-jazeera) next Wednesday in Cairo.  There is an admission in the Minister's warning, a realization and acknowledgement that the League will take no decisive action, beyond the economic sanctions it put in place nearly a month ago and banning Syria from the League.  The regional organization is now even saying it will refer the crisis to the United Nations Security Council but will not recommend any military action which will be an enormous disappointment (xinhua) to the Syrian demonstrators which are being killed daily by the Assad regime. 

rfn=Ankara -  Sheikh al-Thani is aware an atmosphere of fear prevails in the region (al-arabiya) and beyond in Western capitals and it revolves around the possible consequences of post-Assad Syria and the impact it will have on an increasingly explosive situation not only in Syria.  That fear is enabling Bashar al-Assad to hang on for what is left of his life, as a head of state in name only.  But Ankara may not be quite as constrained in its thinking as other regional governments due to Turkey's hatred of Assad and Ankara's extreme displeasure due to their massive investment in Assad.  HDN is reporting the Jordan Prime Minister Awn Khasawneh is expected in Istanbul this weekend to meet Turkey Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss the Syrian crisis.  I suspect both governments may agree, if not already, to arm the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and may have begun to do so since most of the FSA activities have taken place in northern/central Syria and now in the south near Jordan's border.  Turkey-Jordan are in ideal positions to arm the FSA and Jordan King Abdullah last month publicly called for Assad to step down.  The FSA's leadership has been based in Turkey but very soon there could be reports they now have representatives in Amman.

rfn=Sidi Bouzid -  It was one year ago today (al-arabiya) a young man, a fruit vendor Mohammed Bouazizi, set himself on fire in front of the town hall, a town so small somewhere in Tunisia's interior it doesn't even appear on Tunisian weather maps, because he did not have a license to sell fruit.  He had been slapped and humiliated by a policewoman, but before he died in hospital mass demonstrations had begun across the country because people knew his situation was symptomatic of the entire country.  By January 14 President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali had gone into exile in Saudi Arabia and a former political prisoner is now Prime Minister.  A few days later demonstrations begin in Cairo, February in Libya, March in Syria.  However, economic reality has set in despite the new political freedoms and after Tunisian elections six weeks ago, the young men of Sidi Bouzid believe they have been forgotten.  Though the new government is pledging to no longer neglect the interior the economic crisis in Europe has limited export markets there and tourists are afraid to come back.

night watch:  rfn=ISTANBUL -  "The regime has killed, maimed, arrested, tortured and displaced tens of thousands of people.  Therefore different revolutionary groups sought to unify their operational and political leadership to join forces and overthrow the regime.  Now the time is ripe, it has become necessary to declare our existence publicly.  Therefore, we announce the National Alliance of Forces, Coordinators and Councils of the Syrian Revolution, Al-Leeqa."  HDN reports that was the announcement made by former Syria Ambassador to Sweden Bassam al-Imadi at a press conference in Istanbul on the formation of this new oppostion group uniting all groups inside Syria that oppose the regime of Bashar al-Assad.  This comes as the revolt entered its tenth month yesterday as hundreds of thousands of people demonstrated mainly in Homs and (swissinfo/reuters) Deir al-Zor near Iraq's border.  Ambassador al-Imadi called for the international community to establish a buffer zone and he recognized the Syrian National Council and stated his support for the Free Syrian Army.

rfn=New York -  Meanwhile Russia's Ambassador to the United Nations, Vitaly Churkin, has presented a new resolution to the Security Council that is more critical of the Assad regime than before though it does not yet call for sanctions or foreign intervention.  However, Al Jazeera reports France's Ambassador to the UN, Gerard Araud, has hailed it as "an extraordinary event.  Russia has decided to move on the resolution project...We think that it is because Russia has felt the pressure of the international community."  U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton responded to Russia's resolution by saying, "There are some issues in it that we would not be able to support.  There is unfortunately a seeming parity between the government and peaceful protesters.  But we are going to study the draft carefully.  It will have to be shared with the Arab League which has taken the lead in the response to what's going on in Syria."

rfn=Doha -  The Arab League postponed today's meeting and I suspect it was because of Moscow's new resolution and to give the international community time to absorb and discuss it.  But I believe the league is scheduled to meet tomorrow in Doha, Qatar and it was Qatar which led the Arab League against Colonel Muammar Gadhafi in Libya and now seems ready to do so again against Bashar al-Assad.  The procedure that seems to have been established, when Colonel Gadhafi began the expanded regional war back in February when he attacked demonstrators, was for the Arab League to call for international intervention.

Though foreign intervention was begun by the French initiative eventually the league became the main vehicle for acceptance by the Security Council especially in encouraging support from Russia.  Even Ankara has said repeatedly (hdn) it will not establish the buffer zone across Syria's northern border until it receives approval from the Arab League and the Security Council.  In the meantime the emergence of this new Syrian opposition group is significant particularly when they voiced support for the Syrian National Council and the Free Syrian Army.  Paris has been stating, ever since the revolt began against Assad in March, that the Syrian opposition must be united in order to receive full international support.  So I would guess the league will now call for foreign intervention follwed by a meeting of the Security Council voting for a resolution on intervention beginning with the buffer zone.

night watch:  rfn=MUSAYFRAH -  Rami Abdul Rahman of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, based in London, announced 27 military/security personnel of the Assad regime were killed in two attacks by the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in the city of Daraa near Jordan and another attack at a checkpoint 15 miles/25 km east of the city.  HDN/Reuters report it is not known how the engagements took place but I suspect the FSA is not only (al-arabiya) conducting defensive operations, which is their official image, but has begun to actively conduct attacks which has taken some of the pressure off the civilian population.

rfn=Damascus -  "Defectors gave us names, ranks and positions of those who gave the orders to shoot to kill and each and every official named in this report, up to the very highest levels of the Syrian government, should answer for their crimes against the Syrian people."  Al Jazeera reports that was the statement by Anna Neistat of Human Rights Watch (HRW) one of the authors of the report on the direct involvement, orders, from the highest levels of the Assad regime and the killing of more than 5,000 civilian protesters during the nine month revolt across Syria.  The report is based on the interviews of more than sixty defectors from the regime, one of them a Lieutenant-Colonel, and they name officials from the military/intelligence services who delivered daily briefings on confronting demonstrators "by all necessary means". 

The soldiers and security services of course took that to mean "shoot to kill."  A sniper in Homs stated his commanders ordered a specific percentage of demonstrators should die, "for 5,000 protesters, for example, the target would be 15 to 20 people."  Some of the officials named were:  General Imad Dawoud Rajiha-Defense Minister, General Imad Fahed al-Jassem el-Freij-Army Chief of Staff and the heads of various intelligence agencies: Abdul Fatah Kadsiyeh, Jamil Hassad and Ali Mamlouk.

night watch:  rfn=HATAY PROVINCE -  Syrian activist Ammar Qurabi has informed Al-Arabiya a road map has been planned to establish safe corridors for Syrians along the Turkey-Syria border (swissinfo/reuters) and that Ankara was only waiting for an Arab and regional cover.  "However, as more civilians are killed in Syria; Turkey might ask for cover from NATO."  This seems to be the process set in motion since the Arab League is scheduled to have another meeting on Syria, possibly this week, and now statements from Russia's Ambassador to the United Nations, Vitaly Churkin, has become less critical of international intervention, though still expressing concerns it will increase the death toll, and Ambassador Churkin is now saying the West has moved into "regime-change mode."

In the past 24 hours 47 people have been killed across the country mostly in Idlib province which borders Turkey.  But due to the emergence of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) the deaths are no longer purely civilian.  The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, based in London, announced another attack on a military convoy, "At least eight soldiers were killed in an ambush (swissinfo/reuters) on four military jeeps travelling in the village of Al-Aharna on the outskirts of Hama."  The ambush was in response to the killing of civilians in the area.  I actually believe the civilian death toll has been reduced with the emergence of the FSA but that they do need international support, at least from Turkey, to finally remove Bashar al-Assad.

rfn=Strait of Hormuz -  Teheran has toned down its threatening statements on the Strait of Hormuz after Iran Minister of Intelligence Haidar Moslehi's meeting yesterday in Riyadh with high level Saudi officials.  FNA reports Parviz Sorouri, member of Iran's National Security Council and Foreign Policy Commission is now saying, "The Strait of Hormuz is one of the options (for defending the country); if the strait is secure it should be secure for all, it can't be secure for all except for Iran, if such a thing happens, naturally Iran can use the capacity to close the waterway within its territorial waters and with its border in accordance with international rules and regulations.  We can't keep mum and remain handcuffed against that.  If enemies intend to bring these threats against us into action, we will use all our capacity, too, and the Strait of Hormuz is one of these capacities."

This is entirely different from what Sorouri was saying a few days ago and even the Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehman-Parast is sounding less belligerent (fna), "The Islamic Republic of Iran has repeatedly announced that closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not on its agenda because it believes that stability and tranquility should be established in the region and all regional states should make the effort to achieve progress and development in light of security and tranquility."  I suspect Moslehi was made aware of the massive military preparations Saudi Arabia has been making, due to the weapons purchases from the U.S.-Germany in the past couple of years and that therefore Iran controlling the Persian Gulf is an impossibility.

rfn=Ankara -  With that in mind Teheran has fallen back on its main military priorities, attacking the West, including sending an army through Turkey in support of Serbia and its 2006 secruity agreement with Iran.  HDN/AFP reports Iran Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi is now saying under no circumstances will Iran attack Turkey due to its support of the U.S. missile shield for Europe. (hdn)  Foreign Minister Salehi stated to Turkey's Anatolia news agency threatening remarks directed at Turkey by various Iranian officials by no means was a reflection of state policy, "We regret those views completely.  The Islamic Republic of Iran's official stance on Turkey is based on deep brotherhood and friendship.  Other statements are considered personal views."

HDN has this statement published accompanied by a large photo of Salehi shaking hands with Turkey Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu.  Ankara is also opposed to the West's continued military presence in the former Yugoslavia which is why Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan flies into a rage sometimes when discussing Western governments.

night watch:  rfn=NEW YORK -  "It is my extimate that the total number of people killed since the protests began earlier this year is now likely to exceed 5,000.  This situation is intolerable."  Al Jazeera reports that was the announcement by United Nations Human Rights Chief Navi Pillay speaking to reporters after briefing the Security Council.  Her statement was immediately challenged by Syria's Ambassador to the UN Bashar Jaafari who accused her of not being objective and uninformed. (al-arabiya/ap)  But the UN Chief of the Middle East Section, Frej Fenniche responded, "Who said to Mr. Jaafari that we are not in contact with people within the Army now and with people at a high level with the government?...We have contact with officials on the basis of confidentiality."

rfn=Idlib Province -  Swissinfo/Reuters reports the increased death toll, which rises daily, is expected to add weight to the argument of delegates who call for international intervention.  The call is being led by France, whose UN Ambassador Geraud Araud commented, "It is scandalous that the council, because of opposition from some members and the indifference of others, have not been able to exert pressure on the Syrian authorities."  That was a remark directed mostly at Moscow which maintains an official position of non-intervention in order to maintain contact with the Assad regime.  At the same time violence has flared up again in Syria's northwestern Idlib province as the Free Syrian Army (FSA) attacked a military convoy and conducted its second day of attacks in southern Daraa province near Jordan's border.

rfn=Riyadh -  Asharq al-Awsat reports Heidar Moslehi, Iran Minister of Intelligence, has just arrived in Riyadh at the head of a delegation and was received by Crown Prince Naif bin Abdulaziz Al Saud Deputy Premier and Minister of the Interior.  A meeting was then convenced which included Prince Muqrin bn Abdulaziz, Chief of General Intelligence, and other officials connected with the security of the kingdom.  An extremely diplomatic statement was released that said issues of common concern were discussed, a polite way of saying the extent of the regional rivalry and full scale war was addressed.  Riyadh and other Allied governments are aware Teheran is not preparing to attempt to control the salt in the Dead Sea but would rather be the main presence in world energy markets by controlling all of the Persian Gulf. 

And ony yesterday a member of Iran's National Security Council announced (mna) Iran will soon conduct maneuvers on closing the Strait of Hormuz.  When Teheran attempts to do so war will be declared and not just between Saudi Arabia/Iran.  Teheran is aware of the critical impact this will have on the industrialized world and Riyadh will lead the world's response to restore stability.  During the past two years Riyadh-Washington have created a Corps sized unit of 35,000 to protect the oil fields and Saudi Arabia has been purchasing a record amount of aircraft, naval equipment from the U.S. and more than 200 Leopard tanks from Germany.

night watch:  rfn=BASRAH AL-HARIR -  A Syrian source, an activist, has informed Asharq al-Awsat the major battle in the south of the country between tanks/artillery of the Assad regime and the opposition Free Syrian Army (FSA) is a major development:  "This is a striking development that points to the military conflict now being transferred to southern Syria after such conflict was previously seen in central or northern Syria."  An FSA official said they have made a tactical withdrawal from the town and Lujah after inflicting heavy losses on the Assad regime destroying three tanks.  The FSA had been concentrating on attacking the regime's supply lines.  The rate of defections away from Bashar al-Assad should increase.

rfn=Damascus -  In the meantime Monday is the second day of the nationwide general strike.  Al-Arabiya reports activist, Rima Fleihan of the Syrian National Council (SNC), said much of the capital has been shut down, "For the first time we have seen businesses close in multiple districts in Damascus and spread to most of the suburbs and provinces.  The aim is to (swissinfo/reuters) reach civil disobedience that encompasses all sectors and forces the regime down.  The cost will be more human lives but I am afraid it is less costly than an armed uprising and the regime dragging the country into a Libya (xinhua) type scenario."

rfn=Paris -  "Syria has no link whatsoever with this act which we condemn."  HDN/AFP reports that was the angry response by Syria Foreign Ministry spokesman Jihad Makdisi after France Foreign Minister Alain Juppe, speaking Sunday over TV5 Monde, accused the Assad regime of causing the explosion last week in southern Lebanon that wounded five French soldiers serving with UNIFIL.  I believe it was Teheran ordering Hezbollah to plant the roadside bomb but Paris is leading Allied governments in finding reasons to intervene militarily against Assad.

rfn=Strait of Hormuz -  "Soon we will hold a military manuever on how to close the Strait of Hormuz.  If the world wants to make the region insecure, we will make the world insecure."  HDN/Reuters reports that was the warning by Iran Minister of Parliament and member of the National Security Committee, Parviz Sarvari.  That has bascially been Teheran's response/preparations to the West's prominent role and policies in the region ever since the 1979 Islamic revolution under Ayatollah Khomeini.  The military did not confirm Sarvari's statement but I suspect Teheran believes it is ready (hdn/ap) to go beyond using militias in Iraq, the Taliban in Afghanistan, groups in the Caucasus and Hezbollah/Hamas and it is time for full scale war.

night watch:  rfn=BUSRA AL-HARIR -  The police state regime of Bashar al-Assad has been forced to send units, mainly from the (al-jazeera) 12th Armored Brigade, based in Izra, to storm the town of Busra al-Harir and they are now fighting hundreds of members of the Free Syrian Army (FSA).  Al-Arabiya reports this is the area near Jordan's border, eighty miles south of Damascus and where the revolt against the Assad regime began in March.  The sounds of explosions and heavy machine gun fire are being heard also in nearby by Lujah.  Swissinfo/Reuters reports an activist from Izra, Abu Omar explained, "Lujah has been the safest area for defectors to hide because it is difficult for tanks and infantry to infiltrate.  The region has caves and secret passage ways and extends all the way to Damascus countryside."

Naharnet/AP report there was also fighting between the Assad regime and SFA in the northwest town of Kfar Takharim in Idlib province that left two armored vehicles on fire.  And Sunday was also the beginning of the General Strike which witnessed the closure of shops, including in the Damascus suburb of Douma, in Daraa and communities in the northwest.  The strike is to continue with civil servants refusing to go to work, affect universities, public transport and major highways.  Reports continue to circulate the Assad regime is preparing for a major assault on the central city of Homs and its 1.6 million population.  The Syrian Observator for Human Rights, based in London warned, "The spread of security leaks that the regime has decided to extinguish the revolution in Homs within 72 hours by giving security forces and Shabiha (militia) unlimited powers to not be merciful towards unarmed civilians."  The FSA has a major presence in the city which should limit the number of casualties and may even cause more regime soldiers to defect.

night watch:  rfn=WASHINGTON -  "The Euro Zone is at great risk.  I mean (exposed) literally, through contracts and programmatics, but also because of the potential for civil unrest and the breakup of the union that has been forged over there."  That was not a warning from an international economist, Al Jazeera reports it came from General Martin Dempsey Chairman of the Pentagon Joint Chiefs of Staff speaking at a grim forum of the Atlantic Council in Washington on the fragile situation within the European Union and its 27 governments.  The U.S. has 80,000 troops and 20,000 civilian employees in Europe, mainly in Germany, and joint development programs like the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter in cooperation with Britain-Italy.  But as the economic crisis across the continent continues it could result in the program being re-allocated causing the price for each fighter to increase dramatically as the Pentagon is also combating a reduced budget.  General Dempsey, "It will clearly put them at risk if all the economic predictions about a potential collapse were to occur-inflation, devaluation.  I know that they've taken some measures here with the 17 members of the Euro Zone to try to better align-and I guess that is the right phrase-monetary and fiscal policy.  But it's unclear to me at least that that will be the glue that acutally holds it together."

Crisis have been known to bring people together, creating a sense of shared risk, but that may not work here since no one seems to be eager to finance the agreement among governments and establishments proud of their differences (al-jazeera) rooted in cultural/nationalistic identities.  At the same time on the southern borders of the union the Serbian flashpoint in the former Yugoslavia could erupt again over the border crossings dispute with its Kosovo province and NATO troops caught in the crossfire.  Greece signed a security agreement with Serbia in 2006, as did Iran that same year, and I suspect all  monetary agreements between Athens-Brussels-Berlin-Paris will be blown away.  Rome served as the West's main military capital during the offensive against Gadhafi in Libya.  Perhaps Rome can replace Brussels, economically as well, since it is the base of the 1957 Treaty of Rome which established the European Union.  At one time Brussels represented unity, after World War II 1939-45 as the seat of the European Union, but since the 1960s it began to over regulate as a classic international bureaucracy just to remind people they were there.

rfn=Homs -  "The earth was shaking.  Armored personnel carriers drove through the streets and opened fire randomly with heavy machine gun fire."  Al Jazeera reports that was a resident of Homs speaking to AP as more than forty people were killed across Syria including 18 in Damascus.  Violence has also hit Aleppo, the country's second largest city and economic center.  Most Assad regime units in Homs concentrated on the Khaldiyeh neighborhood where actress Fadwa Soliman led a demonstration.  At the same time Swissinfo/Reuters reports activists in Homs say there is no clear sign of any troop buildup by the Assad regime outside the city.  Western governments have been warning Bashar al-Assad not to storm the city.

night watch:  rfn=HOMS -  "The regime is paving the way to commit a massacre in order to extinguish the revolution in Homs."  Al-Arabiya reports that was the warning from the opposition Syrian National Council (SNC) as the Assad regime has concentrated army/security units and Shabiha militia around the city of Homs, one of the main centers of anti-Assad opposition support including a large camp now of Free Syrian Army (FSA) defectors.  The Shabiha are arriving in armored vehicles because, according to an FSA source, they no longer feel safe in cars in the open country.  Sixty checkpoints have been set up. (asharq al-awsat/afp)  "These are all signs of a security crackdown operation that may reach the level of a total invasion of the city.  We warn of the consequences of committing such a crime that could result in a massive number of casualties." 

rfn=Idlib -  The presence of FSA reduces the chances of massive casualties and Ankara is again warning of direct intervention as Al-Arabiya reports Turkey Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu announced, "Turkey has no desire to interfere in anyone's internal affairs but if a risk to regional security arises (swissinfo/reuters) then we do not have the luxury of standing by and looking on."  Sources in the FSA have informed Asharq al-Awsat defections from the Assad regime keep increasing including now from the Syrian Air Force Intelligence Directorate and that the recent fighting at one of the complexes was not due to an attack by the FSA but between those who were defecting and loyal Assad units:  "These were clashes between defectors and their former colleagues in the Air Force Intelligence Directorate.  In the space of just one week, three specific defections operations took place in Syria." 

"The first last Wednesday, saw around 100 security elements defecting including three high ranking officers from a battalion maintaining order in Idlib.  This was followed by the defections of a small number of elements from an Air Force Intelligence Directorate unit stationed in the same region...The third defection occurred on Sunday.  This was the defection at the Syrian Air Force Directorate in Idlib.  The first and second operations took place without any clashes or a single shot being fired."  He mentioned what has convinced more personnel to defect is more of them realizing they have been lied to by the regime which had said they were fighting armed terrorists and not unarmed civilians.

rfn=Tyre -  "Lebanon considers these attacks as targeting its own security and stability not only UNIFIL (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon).  These attacks will not have an influence on UNIFIL's work in the south nor on the French contingent."  Swissinfo/Reuters reports that was the response from Lebanon Prime Minister Najib Mikati after a roadside bomb wounded five French soldiers in the southern Lebanon coastal city of Tyre.  Teheran realizes war in Syria is going to spread which will provide first Turkey then the West-Israel reasons to intervene as a way of removing groups/governments in the region controlled by Iran.  Europe has been a major contributor to the 12,000 UNIFIL troops in the south positioned there after fighting had erupted in the summer of 2006 between Hezbollah/Israel.  UNIFIL works in close cooperation with 15,000 of Lebanon's Army.

rfn=Isfahan -  Swissinfo/Reuters reports the Institute for Science and International Security has studied satellite photographs of a nuclear site in Iran near Isfahan after Iran media reports of an explosion there November 28.  The photographs indicate signs of construction work 400 meters/yards away from the site indicating what the ISIS describes as a "significant transformation."  As recently as August 27 imagery revealed a constrution ramp and several large buildings but these latest images taken December 5 show signs of bulldozing with all the buildings now gone and heavy equipment in place.  This underground facility, the Uranium Conversion Facility, outside the city was orginally a salt mine dating back to at least the 1980's but is now known to be a nuclear site used for producing uranium gas.  Fed into centrifuges elsewhere it can then become purified material for nuclear bombs.

I suspect Iran's activity has become more feverish since they realize Allied governments are preparing a massive air campaign.  This is the second report of an explosion at the same time one was reported that killed one of Iran's missile experts at the base southwest of Teheran that could be heard in the capital.  Another accident could have taken place in Isfahan.  It also seems Iran has conducted another underground nuclear test, which it reports as an earthquake.  FNA reported an earthquake near the town of Gavbandi early Thursday morning in the southern province of Hormozgan near the Persian Gulf.  Iran has been doing this for several years, conducting underground tests calling them earthquakes and that is why there are no reports of any damage which a real earthquake would have caused.

night watch:  rfn=HOMS -  "This is the main pipeline that feeds the Homs refinery."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the announcement by Rami Abdul Rahman of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, based in London after the pipeline explosion (al-arabiya).  There was also an attack on a pipeline in July.  This massive explosion was in one of the suburbs of Homs, the city of 800,000 north of Damascus which has been at the center of the anti-Assad demonstrations which is why 1,500 people have been killed here since demonstrations began in March.  More than 4,000 have been killed in all and the death toll climbs every day. 

The opposition has now announced it will begin a nationwide campaign of civil disobedience on Sunday, the first work day of the week in Syria beginning with sit ins.  But it will soon escalate into work closures in shops/offices, university demonstrations, the targeting of transportation networks and leading to a general public sector strike.  This is obviously to increase the economic pressure on the regime and takes place as the Arab League (al-arabiya) has imposed sanctions and Turkey has limited its economic relations with the regime.  In other news an armored personnel carrier was destroyed during fighting between the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and units loyal to Bashar al-Assad.  This took place near the radio station in the town of Saraqeb on the Hama-Aleppo highway leading to the Turkish border.  Heavy gunfire was heard in Hama.

night watch:  rfn=EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN -  Tuesday, Russian television stations showed a naval squadron from the Northern Fleet embarking from Severomorsk led by the aircraft cruiser Admiral Kuznetsov enroute to the Syrian port of Tartus, a naval base used by Russia.  This comes as Al-Arabiya/AP report an Egyptian navigational source revealed a U.S. nuclear submarine is preparing to enter the Suez Canal from the Red Sea also enroute to the Eastern Mediterranean where the U.S. aircraft carrier George Bush has been anchored snce November 20.  Both flagships of Russia-U.S. are accompanied by other warships while, publicly, the West-Russia-Turkey still state they are opposed to any direct intervention against Bashar al-Assad in Damascus who has just presented himself as an innocent bystander (asharq al-awsat) in an interview with Barbara Walters of ABC News.

rfn=Beirut -  It is still quite possible for the revolt against Assad to spread since Teheran may still want to use him to attract a lot of attention as Allied governments attack forces in Syria/Lebanon/Gaza controlled by Iran.  Burhan Ghalioun the President of the Syrian National Council (SNC) stated, "Nobody can predict the date of the complete collapse of this regime which is still capable (asharq al-awsat) of committing grave crimes...the regime is facing a race against time, it is pursuing a scorched earth policy at home to incite more bloodshed, and it does not hesitate to destroy and burn down people's homes and furniture, and even their blankets so that children who are not killed will die from exposure.  This is the reality being experienced by the Syrian people every day and the people are now aware that with a regime such as this, the battle will be bloody and brutal but despite this they are committed to the battle until their objectives are realized because they believe they will be victorious in the end."

"I do not believe the battle will last longer than a few more months, particularly as the regime's financial, military and security resources are running out, and so we believe that the ruling criminal gang is intensifying the violence against the people.  The regime is moving closer to the abyss, edging closer and closer to its ultimate end.  Desertions in Syria are on the rise, whether we are talking about the military or security forces.  They are exhausted and are aware they are fighting a losing battle against their own people and that is why we have begun to see more and more desertions....These maneuvers were solely aimed at the Syrian people as is the constant state of emergency in place in the country for more than 41 years...This regime has never had any enemy other than its own people and the situation today is clearer than at any time before."

rfn=Talkalakh -  The most recent example of the Assad regime's "scorched earth" policy was shown earlier this week as they bombarded then invaded the town of Talkalakh on Lebanon's border.  Asharq al-Awsat reported an eyewitness account from an activist.  Here are excerpts:  "The Talkalakh siege began when some members of the army defected and seeking refuge amongst the residents of the town.  The army and security forces learned from their informers that these individuals were based there...Afterwards the army troops mobilized with the Shabiha (Assad militia) from neighboring villages and began their assault but they were met with a violent resistance from the soldiers who had defected...The army carried out an indiscriminate bombing campaign across Talkalakh and utilized 500 machine guns and heavy artillery."

"The army and the Shabiha searched homes accompanied by the Mayor of Talkalakh and entered every district in search of the wanted men and perhaps evidence of weaponry.  At the same time the Shabiha indiscriminately fired upon people's homes to prevent them from coming out onto the streets to protest."  The activist stated the initial bombardment killed Hind Hamadi and her young daughter.  Reinforcements of more tanks were called including anti-aircraft weaponry and during the next bombardment a shell hit the Hamadi home causing severe injuries to all inside.  They had to be taken to a hospital outside the town because the National Hospital in Talkalakh refused to admit them.

"I escaped with some of my friends at night despite the heavy bombardment being carried out across Talkalakh and part of the border between Syria and Lebanon.  We managed to cross the border despite our fears that we could be blown up by land mines.  We were able to escape after an hour long walk until we came at the house of one of my relatives."  He said security forces have imposed a curfew on the town after its two days of bombardment which prevents residents from buying food and bread.  And that the houses of nine activists have been burned down.

night watch:  rfn=ISTANBUL -  "The al-Assad regime is supported by Iran, Iraq and Hezbollah.  I can also reveal, from within the regime, that Hafez al-Assad sent his son, Bashar, to London for treatment for mental illness and following his recovery he began to study medicine...but it seems that he has suffered a relapse.  His actions reveal that he is mentally unbalanced."  That is an excerpt from an extensive interview with the head of Syria's Muslim Brotherhood Mohammed Riad Al-Shaqfa in today's Asharq al-Awsat.  "The al-Assad regime will collapse within a few months. (al-arabiya) The Syrian people will accept Turkish military intervention to protect them from the forces of President al-Assad, but not Western military intervention.  However, I personally do not want to see any foreign intervention because the Syrian people have the will and commitment to isolate and oust the Syrian regime and it is isolated with the world recalling their Ambassadors from Damascus.  In this case it would be easy for the Syrian people to overthrow the al-Assad regime and so we want the Arab and Islamic states to intervene and protect the Syrian civilians."

"Hundreds have been killed this month, which represents one of the bloodiest periods since the beginning of the Syrian protests in March...The reason for the arrogance of the Syrian regime...is because the regime's days are over.  It is gasping its final breath and so al-Assad's statements to the British media with the Sunday Telegraph are nothing more than empty rhetoric, he wants to portray himself as being in charge of Syria's land, sea and air but he is a liar and is not in charge of anything but himself. (al-arabiya) These beneficiaries of the regime continue, until now, to benefit from his rule and they are committed to the regime because their fate is intertwined with that of the regime.  The samething applied to Libya; those who supported Gadhafi did so till the end."

"We have no ties to Hezbollah, and its sufficient for me to say that Hezbollah and Iran are contributing to the repression of the Syrian people by supplying the al-Assad regime with technology and equipment as well as security experts in violence and torture.  We have confirmed information that experts from the Iran Revolutionary Guards are present in the Syrian regime's operational rooms and they are leading the operations against the Syrian people.  This is not to mention the support that has been granted to the al-Assad regime from Iraq and there is talk that Prime Minister al-Maliki has provided the al-Assad regime with approximately 10 billion dollars.  Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah (al-jazeera) His position is strange and nonsensical."

Concerning the buffer zone:  "We heard about this...In my opinion there is no urgent need to establish a buffer zone.  The Syrians who have defected from the Army have retreated to the mountains, and the civilians who have fled the country are present in Turkey, so there is no need for this buffer zone."

night watch:  rfn=HOMS -  "Not a single opposition neighborhood was spared today.  Troops either entered districts and raided houses, fired from roadblocks or tanks and pickup trucks, hit houses and shops with machinegun fire."  Al-Arabiya/Reuters report that was the account from a Syrian activist in the city of Homs, Abu Zeinab, as at least 30 people were killed Sunday across the country.  Fighting continued in the northwest around Idlib as 16 more defectors engaged units loyal to Assad and a similiar number of new defectors in the south of the country, Joiseh (swissinfo/reuters) near Lebanon's border, also fought with Assad loyalists.  Three members of Assad's security forces were shot dead by defectors, Free Syrian Army, in front of the courthouse in Dael.

rfn=Istanbul -  "I belive that the Russians, based on certain statements issued here and there are reviewing their position as are the Chinese."  Asharq al-Awsat reports that was the observation by Samir al-Nashar, head of the Secretariat of the Damascus Declaration one of the opposition groups against the police state regime of Bashar al-Assad.  And Ahmed Ramadan, spokesman of the Syrian National Council (SNC) stated he has warned both Moscow-Beijing that the new Syrian, post-Assad government, will take into account the support Russia-China have continue to provide for Assad despite the eight month revolt against him.  Al-Nashar stated the SNC has informed Beijing, "You are allowing the regime to commit crimes.  We want to delegitimize the al-Assad regime."  He expects Assad to experience a similar end to that of Gadhafi in Libya.

Perhaps even more significantly, Ramadan said, "The statements made by al-Assad or his Foreign Minister Walid Muallem disregarding the international community are extremely foolish."  Ramadan was responding to the boast Assad made in October that any intervention by the international community would set the region on fire implying of course that Iran would immediately enter the conflict.  But according to Ramadan, Teheran has written Assad off, and it seems the only real threat Assad has been able to make outside Syria was when Ramadan stated, 22 deaths threats were made to the Arab League Secretary General Nabil Elaraby by the pro-Assad Shabiha militia, telephone threats, as the Arab League was meeting in Cairo voting to approve sanctions.

This is why I mention the importance of the "psychology of leadership" being such a major factor in events.  For more than 30 years Teheran/Damascus have held countless meetings, made an almost infinite number of grand statements on regional cooperation against the West-Israel, even calling it a regional axis, which of course Bashar al-Assad and Foreign Minister Walid Muallem believed in absolutely to such an extent as convincing themselves that under no circumstances would Teheran ever let Assad's government fall or face the enemy alone.  But that was before the Arab revolt hit Syria in March.  Now all Teheran can hope for is for Assad to attract a lot of the enemy's (West-Israel) attention. (asharq al-awsat/reuters) All Iran has been able to do was to send in some members of Hezbollah from Lebanon, some militia members from Iraq and a handful of Iran's Revolutionary Guard advisers.

Ramadan stated, "The Syrian regime at home is losing on all levels and can't find anybody to defend it.  The Syrian regime is truly isolated and even the Iranians are not defending its policies...We are now waiting for the post-Assad period."  He went on to mention some Western governments did not fully understand everything happening in Syria, "I met with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu before his famous meeting with al-Assad and I told him his visit would end in failure because those that they (the diplomats) are talking to are not in the streets...he asked me to wait five days but Turkey's proposals did not receive any response from the Syrian regime."

rfn=Jagnjenica -  B92 reports Monday morning Zubin Potok Mayor Slavisa Ristic led the agreement between NATO KFOR troops and Serbians in northern Kosovo to remove the roadblocks and barricades around the village of Jagnjenica.  Media outlets are saying this will "relax the situation."  The barricades were erected by Serbian communities in the north of the province because the ethnic-Albanian administration in Pristina attempted in July to enforce its authority over the border crossings leading into central Serbia.  Northern Kosovo is predominantly Serbian and they have never recognized the independence of Kosovo.  A major international flashpoint may have been defused for the moment.

night watch:  rfn=TEHERAN -  "No one welcomes the sanctions, we know that sanctions create obstacles, but we want to say we will overcome these obstacles.  As soon as such an issue is raised seriously the oil prices will soar to above $250 a barrel."  MNA reports that was the official warning from Iran Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast in an interview with Sharq newspaper.  This is no exaggeration as Iran's leadership has been preparing for full scale war with their main international rival, the West, ever since the end of the 1980-88 Iran/Iraq war.  And Teheran wants to inflict as much economic pressure on the West as possible and nothing will do it more than forcing the price of oil to beyond $250 a barrel by closing the Strait of Hormuz however briefly. (al-arabiya) The recent crisis over the storming of the British Embassy in Teheran and the severing or relations between London/Teheran forced the price of ICE Brent January crude to increase 95 cents Friday to settle at $109.94 a barrel.

rfn=Teheran - Iran's government of course realizes Allied governments are preparing a massive air campaign against thousands of targets across the country and I suspect Iran's leadership sees this as fulfillment of their apocalyptic vision which is at the basis of the Shia branch of Islam.  Other brances of Iran's government are more secular and nationalistic but it is quite possible they are quite willing to see full scale war and cause as much damage to the West as possible knowing of course Iran's government will be destroyed.  Adel Al Toraifi, Editor in Chief of Al-Majalla addresses these concerns in his column in Asharq al-Awsat, the article 'Iran: Between Economic Jihad and Suicide'.  At the end of his extensive article he quotes Karim Sadjadpour, Associate at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: "We have to differentiate between regimes who are homicidal and regimes which are suicidal.  The Iranian regime brutally suppresses its own population.  It has homicidal tendencies at home.  But its a regime which ultimately wants to stay in power.  That what's paramount for them.  They're not suicidal."

The pre-historic spiritual forces that possess Ayatollah Khamenei and the clerical establishment, including other members of the government, were shown on his website several years ago. (al-arabiya)  On the homepage was a picture of Teheran's main square at sunset full of people.  Above them in the sky was a huge Iranian flag but above the flag were these two occult figures, one was a blood red bull with a man's face and his expression indicated he was insatiable, waiting to consume more blood.  The other being, above him, was a large black horseman wearing an ancient helmet.  You could not see his face and if you could it would not have been human.  These are the Satanic entities Ayatollah Khamenei has been inspired by and commune's with in his palatial residence in the Caucasus between the Black-Caspian Sea.  These beings hate humanity, including those who worship them, the suicidal leadership and followers.  Sometimes analysts assume an enemy reasons along the same lines as most people.  That is not the case here.

rfn=Idlib -  "Armored vehicles from an army barracks outside Idlib were called in to help defend the compound.  The sound of AK-47s and machine guns echoed till dawn."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the account of Syrian activist Alaa as he discussed Syrian army deserters helping some secret police (al-arabiya) to defect from an Air Force Intelligence complex inside the city of Idlib, 175 miles/280 km northwest of Damascus.  The operation by the Free Syrian Army (FSA) was well coordinated with ten people killed on each side.  This is the first known case of secret police defecting away from Bashar al-Assad.

night watch:  rfn=ANKARA -  "The United States position on Syria is clear.  The Syrian regime must end its brutality against its own people and that Assad must step down so a peaceful transition that respects the will of the people can take place."  Al-Arabiya reports that was the policy statement from U.S. Vice-President Joseph Biden as he met with President of Turkey Abdullah Gul just back from London as I suspect both the UK/US are in full support of Ankara's intention to establish a buffer zone across northern Syria.  That will be the first step to international intervention and direct support of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) which is increasing its attacks on the military units (swissinfo/reuters),security forces and militias of the Assad regime.  According to a Syrian activist group the actual death toll, since demonstrations began in March, is now approaching 4,600 with twenty-three killed Saturday.

Vice-President Biden referred to removing Assad as the "number one objective."  Because Bashar "al-Assad and his regime are the source of instability in Syria now and pose the greatest danger to fanning the flames of sectarian conflict not only in Syria but beyond."

rfn=Beirut -  One of the "beyond" places is Lebanon and Naharnet reports Jeffery Feltman, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, is expected in Beriut next week to meet officials and warn them not to provoke Israel with more rocket fire as was the case earlier in the week.  Everyone knows it really is a warning to Teheran which controls Hezbollah and other groups there with rocket arsenals and I would guess Teheran had the rocket fired to test its effectiveness.  Pre-mature explosions have been caused recently by Hezbollah units moving their rockets out of storage in preparation for full scale war in the region.  And more than a year ago the 12,000 European troops in south Lebanon made arrangements with Israel's Defense Forces to send their wounded into Israel when fighting begins and the Pentagon has an aircraft carrier anchored off Syria to provide air support.

night watch:  rfn=DIEGO GARCIA -  Amir Taheri, Iranian Editor in Exile, columnist for Asharq al-Awsat, writes in his article today 'Iran - US War: A Clash of Imaginations' that according to Dan Plesch of London University the U.S. "is gearing up (xinhua) totally for the destruction of Iran.  To destroy over 10,000 targets in Iran within a few hours...Because suspected nuclear sites do not number more than a dozen, it is obvious that Iran's conventional military assets and economic and industrial centers will represent the overwhelming majority of targets."  The air strikes will be carried out by the U.S. Air Force operating from the British Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia.  U.S. has manufactured "bunker-busting" bombs capable of destroying even the deepest mountain hideouts in places like Iran's nuclear facility at Fardo.  The "bunker-busters" are the world's most powerful weapons, short of nuclear warheads.  According to the Center for Strategic Studies almost 400 of these are now "in position against Iran."

rfn=Teheran -  More than a year ago this site mentioned the Pentagon had been moving special ordnance to Diego Garcia and during the Gulf War of 1990-91 an American officer actually admitted there are conventional bombs more powerful than nuclear.  Regular readers of this site now I have said Iran's nuclear facilities should have been attacked quite some time ago, especially after 9/11, but the reason Bin Laden was blamed is because the West hoped full scale war with Iran could be avoided and assumed a deal could be made with them.  Teheran deliberately gave that false impression and engaged in deceptive negotiations for several years as it (swissinfo/reuters) made more preparations and will continue to do so until finally attacked. (mna)  Recently Iran's leader Ayatollah Khamenei warned in a speech, "Faced with aggression we know how to be offensive."

Teheran has used those years for a series of missile and satellite tests which has provided them with a wide range of missiles to be offensive with from ICBM (inter-continental ballistic missiles) to be launched at Western capitals to shorter ranged missiles/rockets to target NATO bases in Afghanistan and ships in the Persian Gulf/Strait of Hormuz.  Iran can also send an army through Turkey in support of the 2006 security agreement Iran signed with Serbia.  Ankara is also opposed to the West's military policies in the former Yugoslavia.

rfn=Paris -  "Our main objective is finding mechanisms to protect civilians and stop the killing machine.  We say it is imperative to use forceful means to force the regime to respect human rights."  Al-Arabiya/AFP report those were some of the policy statements made by Burhan Ghalioun, 66, President of the Syrian National Council (SNC) speaking to the Wall Street Journal from his home in Paris.  And after his government in exile comes to power in Damascus, "there will be no special (military) relationship with Iran.  Breaking the exceptional relationship means breaking the strategic alliance.  After the fall of the Syrian regime (Hezbollah) won't be the same."  President Ghalioun also repeated his call for the international community to establish a no-fly zone to protect civilians.  I expect war with Iran to become full scale when the international community begins to intervene directly in Syria.

rfn=Idlib Province -  On the ground in Syria, Swissinfo/Reuters report the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, based in London, stated eight members of the Assad regime's security forces were killed Thursday after an attack on an Air Force Intelligence base in Idlib province by the Free Syrian Army (FSA).  The base is located on the highway between the Mediterranean port of Latakia, near Turkey's border, and the town of Jisr al-Shughour.  The gunbattle lasted for three hours.  Friday, security forces of the regime fired on an anti-Assad demonstration that took place in the town of Kfar Laha near Homs.  Naharnet/AFP report eleven people have been killed so far today as anti-Assad demonstrations take place across the country.  The United Nations Commission for Human Rights (al-jazeera) have said more than 4,000 people have been killed since demonstrations began in March.

night watch:  rfn=BRUSSELS -  "I will be directing an intensification of economic sanctions on Iran, particularly to increase the isolation of the Iranian financial sector."  HDN/Reuters report that was the opening statement by Britain Foreign Secretary William Hague speaking over the BBC in Brussels before a meeting of European Union (EU) Foreign Secretaries on Iran's nuclear weapons program.  "I stress that the measures, I hope, we will agree today are related to the Iranian nuclear program.  These are not measures in reaction to what has happened to our Embassy.  Our bigger, long term concern is the Iranian nuclear program, the danger that poses to the peace of the Middle East and the wider world--and it is for that reason that we will agree, I hope, (hdn) today to intensify European Union sanctions."

rfn=Brussels -  Al Jazeera/Agencies have just reported the EU Foreign Ministers have added 180 Iranian companies/individuals to the sanctions already in place due to a report by the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Teheran's "development of a nuclear device."

rfn=Hatay Province -  Ahmed Ramadan, Executive Committee member of the Syrian National Council (SNC) the political front against Bashar al-Assad, has announced the Free Syrian Army (FSA), the military front against Assad, has agreed the opposition should remain civilian and the FSA will from now on only concentrate on protecting Syrian demonstrators from further attacks by the regime's military, security forces and militias.  HDN reports this decision was made during the meeting between leaders of both groups as they met in Turkey's Hatay province which borders Syria.  Ramadan explained, "This was the first meeting in which the leaders (naharnet/afp) of the SNC and the Free Syrian Army came together.  The aim was to create a joint action plan.  This is why we formed this joint commission.  The Free Syrian Army is not going to organize any attacks against the regime anymore.  The armed resistance will strictly aim at defending themselves and the Syrian people."

rfn=Jagnjenica -  In defiance of NATO/EU, B92 is reporting the Serbians in northern Kosovo have constructed three new barricades in the village of Jagnjenica the scene of a violent confrontation earlier this week between NATO/KFOR troops and Serbians which are the predominant community in northern Kosovo the province which declared independence from Serbia in 2008.  It was the ethnic Albanian political leadership in Pristina which made the declaration, with encouragement from Brussels, and in July they attempted to enforce their authority over the border crossings in the north of the province that lead into central Serbia.  Despite the public calls for the barricades to be removed by Serbia President Boris Tadic, I suspect that behind the scenes the Serbian government is only pretending to advocate a peaceful resolution and cooperation with Brussels. 

But in reality Serbia has re-armed, with Russia's assistance since NATO's 78 day air offensive in 1999 and in 2006 Serbia signed security agreements with Iran-Greece.  Representatives of the Serbian municipalities in the north are now meeting with local KFOR commander Colonel Darius Nobs who has already stated the blocking of the main road to Zubin Potok is "unacceptable."  This is the most likely place where NATO will attack first and it has been warning it is prepared to use force.

night watch:  rfn=HATAY PROVINCE -  November 28 there was a meeting in Turkey's Hatay province, which borders Syria, between officials of the Syrian National Council (SNC) and the head of the Free Syria Army (FSA) led by Colonel Riad al-Asaad.  HDN reports the President of the SNC Burhan Galioun attended the meeting which I assumed was used by the groups to acknowledge each other and pledge cooperation for a new government in Syria after Bashar al-Assad is either killed or forced out of the country.  In the meantime there are more indications fighting between the Assad regime and the FSA is spreading to the south as Swissinfo/Reuters reported this announcement by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights based in London, "The sound of explosions shook the town of Dael Wednesday morning."  That was the account of an activist who fled the town as security forces of the Assad regime arrived in 30 buses but the activist said two of the buses were blown up by "defectors." 

rfn=Ankara -  It is apparent the immediate impact of the FSA has been to reduce civilian casualties at the hands of the Assad regime while at the same time inflict losses on those still defending Bashar al-Assad and the privileges they benefited from under his oppressive dictatorship.  Those benefits will become more scarce with the disruption of $2.5 billion dollars a year of crossborder commerce with Turkey as Turkey Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu announced sanctions (al-jazeera) against the Assad regime, "Until a legitimate government which is at peace with its people is in charge in Syria, the mechanism of the High Level of Strategic Cooperation has been suspended.  Every bullet fired, every bombed mosque has eliminated the legitimacy of the Syrian leadership and has widened the gap between us."

rfn=London -  "The Iranian Charge d'Affaires in London is being informed now that we require the immediate closure of the Iranian Embassy in London and that all Iranian diplomatic staff must leave the United Kingdom within the next 48 hours. (al-jazeera) We have now closed the British Embassy in Teheran.  We have decided to evacuate all our staff and as of the last few minutes, the last of our UK based staff have now left Iran."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the announcement by Britain Foreign Secretary William Hague speaking to Parliament today as Britain responded to the storming yesterday of its Embassy grounds in downtown Teheran and its diplomatic residential compound in northern Teheran and their ransacking by a mob of Iranian demonstrators.  Foreign Secretary Hague stated London was aware such a demonstration could not have taken place without the tacit approval of the Iranian leadership.  Hague continued, "This does not amount to the severing of diplomatic relations in their entirety.  It is action that reduces relations with Iran to the lowest level consistent with the maintenance of diplomatic relations."

The government in Teheran ordered the demonstrations in response to Britain imposing more economic sanctions, especially in banking, against Iran due to its nuclear weapons program.  In support of Britain, Germany's Foreign Ministry announced its Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle has recalled his country's Ambassador from Teheran for "consultations."  Relations will be restored after the cessation of hostilities.

night watch:  rfn=JAGNJENICA -  "If your trucks unload gravel here we will shoot."  B92 reports that was the loudspeaker warning from NATO/KFOR troops in northern Kosovo at the barricade in the Serbian village of Jagnjenica which has been the scene of two violent confrontations between the German-Austrian troops of KFOR and Serbian villagers.  There was actually some gunfire yesterday with 30-50 Serbians injured but only a few seriously.  Today, the Serbs have so far ignored the warning and are continuing to construct more barricades preventing easy transit for KFOR units.  The NATO alliance is in support of the ethnic Albanian administration in Pristina, in the south of the province, which declared independence from Serbia in 2008 and in July attempted to enforce its authority over the north of the province which is predominantly Serbian.

rfn=Belgrade -  The Serbia government in Belgrade has never recognized Kosovo's independence, which is supported by most NATO governments, and today the Serbia Army (VS) Chief of General Staff Lieutenant-General Miloje Miletic made these comments to the Belgrade newspaper (b92) Vecrnje Novosti:  "Nothing could surprise us...The Army has plans to prevent any crsis in all the areas it believes could potentially be sources of some instability.  We have such a plan for Kosovo and Metohija as well.  The VS will engage and act exclusively in line with decisions made by the state organs and the Constitution and laws."

General Miletic mentioned he and his units maintain regular contact with KFOR and the understanding he has with them is they, KFOR, will remain neutral.  But that understanding will be blown away as soon as NATO opens fire.  This is not 1999 when Serbia was alone during NATO's 78 day air campaign.  Since then Russia has led Serbia's re-armament and in 2006 Belgrade signed security agreements with Athens-Teheran.

rfn=Rmeish -  "Early this Tuesday rockets from the Brigade of Abdullah Azzam shelled the Zionist colonies in northern Palestine and reached their aim."  Al-Arabiya reports that was the announcement by the unit which fired the Grad/Katyusha rockets from south Lebanon in an attempt to hit villages in northern Israel, western Galilee.  This is one of the units controlled by Teheran and I suspect Iran ordered the firing for an accuracy test in preparation for heavier fighting in the region as a result of international intervention in Syria against the Assad regime.  The last service Bashar al-Assad will perform for Teheran is to attract a lot of attention, wider regional war, which Teheran hopes to use to become the main voice in global energy markets.  Israel responded immediately with artillery fire directed at the area of the launching and by mid-morning Israel Air Force planes (al-jazeera) were over south Lebanon.  There are more then 12,000 European troops in the south serving under UNIFIL (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon) having arrived in 2006 after the Rome Conference on the Middle East.

The conference was convened (xinhua) after fighting had erupted across the Lebanon/Israel border when Teheran had Hezbollah conduct an ambush.  Security analyst Timur Goksel, and former UNIFIL member, said what was unusual today was the size of the rocket and that a Christian village was targeted, "This looks more serious.  The type of rocket and apparent target of settlements suggests they were not noisemakers, they actually hit something and didn't mind causing casualties.  This could have caused huge mayhem."  One of the rockets that hit a populated area failed to explode.  There have been at least two premature explosions in south Lebanon recently as Hezbollah mishandled rockets they have been moving.  It is quite possible Teheran wants heavier fighting to begin, at least in Lebanon, before the international community intervenes in Syria.  Western governments will be more concerned about the European troops in south Lebanon.

night watch:  rfn=JAGNJENICA -  "The clashes are still ongoing and the protesters are using small firearms and throwing stones at KFOR which is responding with water cannons and rubber bullets."  B92 reports that was the announcement by NATO's KFOR (Kosovo Force) spokesman Dan Harvey as the barricade confrontation in northern Kosovo, which began in July, became violent in the village of Jagnjenica.  NATO has 6,250 troops in Kosovo the Serbia province which declared independence in 2008 with the support of most NATO and European Union (EU) governments as part of the continuation of the process of destroying Yugoslavia, begun in 1991 and now Serbia which was attacked by NATO's 78 day air offensive in 1999.  It was an air campaign which encouraged the ethnic Albanian administration in Pristina, Kosovo to declare independence but since 1999 Serbia has re-armed, with assistance from Russia and in 2006 signed security agreements with Greece-Iran and has improved relations with Turkey.

Today's violence began when Austrian-German troops used an armored vehicle to move a bus and trucks Serbians in the north of the province (swissinfo/reuters) used to block the Kosovska Mitrovica-Zubin Potok road.  At 11:00 am NATO troops used loudspeakers to accuse the Serbians of shooting one of their officers which the Serbs immediately said was a lie and the violence began.  Sirens were set off which alerted Serbians in the area and more of them came to the demonstration similar to the one last Wednesday when 21 NATO troops were injured.  Today between 30-50 Serbians were injured as they were joined by Mayors from surrounding municipalities and Kosovska Mitrovica District Chief Radenko Nedeljkovic and Serbia's Minister for Kosovo Oliver Ivanovic.

It was in July when the ethnic Albanian government in Pristina attempted to control these border crossings leading into central Serbia but the north of the province is mostly Serbian and they never recognized Pristina's authority.  This may not be just another isolated incident since there was serious violence only last week and NATO is threatening to use more force.  Its helicopters have been circling overhead.

rfn=Paris -  "It is absolutely clear that he is now totally isolated.  Things are progressing slowly but they are accelerating after the Arab League sanctions vote."  Xinhua reports that was the announcement by France Foreign Minister Alain Juppe speaking over France Info realizing the Arab League vote was crucial in supporting international intervention in Syria as was the case in Libya with the West and Arab League countries working in tandem with support from Turkey.  And as Li Hongmei writes in his article, 'Dark Clouds of War Shrouding Syria' the same military preparations that were made against Colonel Muammar Gadhafi are now being made against Bashar al-Assad. (xinhua) Washington has re-positioned the nuclear powered aircraft carrier USS George HW Bush from the Persian Gulf to just off Syria along with escort vessels.  Russian warships were already in the area. (hdn)  These warships will be in support of the no-fly zone and the Jordan based news website Al-Bawaba reports that is already being planned.

Neither is Teheran being idle as another article by Asharq al-Awsat mentions Captain Ammar al-Wawi, Secretary of the Military Council of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) based in Turkey, stated again Teheran is sending Hezbollah/Amal fighters from Lebanon, fighters from Iraq and Iran Revolutionary Guard members to confront the popular demonstrations across Syria due to the Assad regime losing control over its military sectors.  Teheran had intended either Lebanon, the Gaza Strip or even Iraq to become the center of the power struggle and the main flashpoints in Iran's war with Allied governments for control of the region's resources but instead it has become Syria.

rfn=Taji -  Action is increasing in Iraq as Swissinfo/Reuters report Iraq has witnessed its third major attack in five days after a suicide bomber used an explosive filled minibus to attack the military base in Taji just 12 miles/20 km north of Baghdad.  There was also a mortar bomb attack on the car park of Iraq's Parliament in the capital.

night watch:  rfn=KUWAIT -  An unnamed diplomat from an unnamed country has alerted the Kuwait paper al-Seyassah, Turkey, Iran, Hezbollah and Israel are all preparing for increased fighting in and around Syria.  Naharnet reports the diplomat stated Hezbollah has begun to remove its missiles from hideouts which caused the explosion earlier this week at Siddiqin in south Lebanon.  Ankara has prepared three brigades for what he called the "logistical implementation" of Arab League sanctions which have just been approved in Cairo (al-jazeera).  In other words as the vanguard force to establish the buffer zone across northern Syria that will engage, combat the units the Assad regime already has in place in Syria's northern provinces.

The diplomat stated Turkey's brigades are possibly a precursor of the safe corridors for humanitarian aid into Syria France's Foreign Minister Alain Juppe has been suggesting for the past few weeks.  Of course the aid corridors will need protecting and that will enable NATO to find reasons to intervene as well in the name of humanitarian assistance, a smiliar reason for NATO's intervention in Libya.  Nor has Teheran been idle because 150 Iranian experts, members of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, arrived at a military airport south of Damascus enroute to Lebanon to work with Hezbollah.  The diplomat mentioned Teheran-Hezbollah are waiting for "dramatic" developments caused by Turkey-Israel and that Israel has positioned regiments on its border with Lebanon and in the Golan Heights facing Syria.

The diplomat is of course aware this is Israel and the West's chance to destroy Hezbollah and he therefore predicts not only the end of Hezbollah but also of Iran's disruptive role in the region it has played for the past thirty years.  In the dark of these latest developments Naharnet is reporting the Gulf States, Bahrain-Qatar have advised their citizens to leave Syria "as soon as possible."  Bashar al-Assad, in an interview a month ago with a British publication boasted Iran will cause major fighting across the region if the international community intervenes.  I suspect Allied governments are ready and mainly to prevent Iran from further nuclear weapons/ballistic missile production.

rfn=Teheran -  "The British government should know that the Islamic Consultative Assembly is monitoring them and this is just the beginning."  FNA reports that was the warning from Iran Speaker of Parliament/Majlis, Ali Larijani after Parliament voted (asharq al-awsat/afp) to expel Britain's Ambassador Dominic Chilcott and reduce relations to the level of Charge d'Affairs.  This is in response to London's support of the latest economic sanctions Western governments have imposed on Iran.  Speaker Larijani did not state what Teheran's next steps are but I suspect he is implying military action besides the closing of the embassy.

night watch:  rfn=ISTANBUL -  "There is something being planned to send weapons an even Libyan fighters to Syria.  There is a military intervention on the way.  Within a few weeks you will see."  Al-Arabiya reports that was a Libyan source speaking to the British paper Daily Telegraph on the assistance that will be sent to Syria by Libya's new government which was the first to recognize the Syrian National Council (SNC) as the only "legitimate authority" in the country.  The source mentioned this is the result of discussions between the SNC and Tripoli which began in early November with a visit to Tripoli by SNC representatives.  Wisam Taris, human rights campaigner with the SNC stated, "The Libyans are offering money, training and weapons to the Syrian National Council."  A source in Libya's coastal city of Misurata stated some weapons may have already been shipped.

rfn=Deir el-Zor -  In the meantime fighting between the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and units loyal to Bashar al-Assad continue on a daily basis as Naharnet/AFP report the SFA attacked Assad units near the eastern city of Deir el-Zor and killed at least 10 Regular Army troops and security service agents.  Meanwhile Al-Jazeera is reporting the Arab League is meeting in Cairo, along with Turkey, to apply economic sanctions (asharq al-awsat) on the Assad regime and in the same article a link is provided with exclusive footage on the heavy fighting that has been taking place in the central city of Homs.

rfn=Basra -  For the past few days Teheran has set off a series of triple bomb attacks in Basra-Baghdad as a reminder to the Iraq government of its dependency on Iran.  HDN/AP/AFP reports Thursday 19 people were killed and 65 wounded after a popular market in Basra was hit by a triple bomb attack.  Most of the casualties were inflicted by the third explosion after police/army arrived.  Another triple bomb attack has just been made in central Baghdad today as Swissinfo/Reuters reports a market in the Bab al-Sharji district was hit and earlier today a bomb on the western outskirts of the capital, in Abu Ghraib hit a truck carrying construction workers. 

night watch:  rfn=DAMASCUS -  "We affirm the involvement of foreign parties with the aim of weakening the fighting ability of the army."  Xinhua reports that was the announcement by the Assad regime after 10 of its military personnel were killed, including six pilots in Homs province, the center of anti-regime demonstrations.  They were killed by members of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) which is increasing its attacks on the regime's military/intelligence units as members of the opposition Syrian National Council (SNC) have been traversing the European Continent seeking formal recognition as the opposition government.  The SNC is also calling for the establishment of a buffer zone across the northern border with Turkey and now it seems the dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad is preparing to confront Turkey's attempt as Xinhua reports the Lebanese paper al-Manar quoted "unofficial sources" as informing them the Assad regime has completed deployment of forces all across the border at a depth of 12 miles/20 km.

rfn=Ankara -  The deployment of Assad regime units has been designated "Break the Illusion" and obviously the regime was aware that earlier this week the commander of Turkey's Land Forces (al-arabiya) was inspecting his border units, units which will be used to enter Syria and I assume with air support.  In a joint press conference with Jordan Foreign Minister Nasser Judeh (hdn/reuters), Turkey Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu warned Ankara was ready to take action with other Arab powers if Assad does not comply to the Arab League ultimatum which called for withdrawal of all troops from urban centers, release of political detainees and international monitors:  "I want to say clearly we have no more tolerance for the bloodshed in Syria.  The attitude of friendly and fraternal countries on this subject is clear.  If it doesn't there are steps we can take in consultation with the Arab League."  Foreign Minister Davutoglu stated Turkey is in contact with the European Union-NATO and United Nations Security Council members.

rfn=Homs -  Asharq al-Awsat/AFP report the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, based in London, announced 51 people were killed across Syria on Thursday.  Due to the emergence of the FSA the deaths are no longer exclusively unarmed civilian demonstrators.  Twenty-three of the dead were members of the Assad military.  Speaking by phone from Turkey the head of the FSA, Colonel Riyadh al-Asaad stated, "We are not in favor of the entry of foreign troops as was in the case of Iraq but we want the international community to give us logistical support.  We also want international protection, the establishment of a no-fly zone, a buffer zone and strikes on certain strategic targets considered as crucial by the regime."

night watch:  rfn=NEW YORK -  The United Nations Human Rights Committee voted Tuesday on the Syrian resolution.  Al Jazeera reports the vote was 122 in favor, 13 opposed and 41 abstained.  The resolution was drafted mainly by Paris-London-Berlin in support of the Arab League initiative.  Swissinfo/Reuters report the Foreign Ministry in Paris Wednesday made this announcement afterward through its spokesman Bernard Valero, "Following the United Nations General Assembly's vote condemning repression in Syria (Foreign Minister) Alain Juppe will confirm France's support for the construction of a united democratic opposition that includes all of Syria's democratic forces to prepare a peaceful transition in the country."

rfn=London -  At the time of the vote Turkey President Abdullah Gul was in London addressing the think tank Wilton Park (al-arabiya), "Unfortunately Syria has come to a point of no return.  We exerted enormous efforts in public and behind the scenes in order to convince the Syrian leadership to lead the democratic transition...Violence breeds violence.  In fact, not only for Syria but for the entire region we have a responsibility to defend the territorial integrity and political unity of the countries at all costs.  New and old divisions between and within countries of the region should not be allowed to take root. (hdn) Defining this democratic struggle along sectarian, religious and ethnic lines will drag the whole region into turmoil and bloodshed."

rfn=Ankara -  From the very beginning Ankara has been threatening to establish a buffer zone across all of northern Syria and I suspect the final incident that forced them was when buses carrying Turkish pilgrims back from Saudi Arabia was attacked a few days ago by Syrian soldiers that support Assad and as they were firing shouted curses at Turkey Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.  The invasion will be in support of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) whose leader, Colonel Riyad al-Asaad is based in Turkey.  Swissinfo/Reuters reports one of its members, Mazen, spoke by phone, "We have to hide what we do, other than a few trusted activists.  Covering our faces is necessary--if our identities were revealed, our families could be tortured or killed.  The Secret Police are always listening.  It's a daily challenge to find ways to get in touch.  We also have to work at night and that helps gives us a littile advantage against the army."

rfn=Siddiqin -  Iran's regional axis partners continue to self-destruct as Naharnet reports a massive explosion in south Lebanon destroyed another Hezbollah cache of arms.  Hezbollah is becoming Hezblownup.

night watch:  rfn=HATAY PROVINCE -  "There are armed groups coming to Syria to support the regime's army.  This was confirmed to us by Syrian citizens whose homes were stromed and and they could identify them from their non-Syrian accents."  Asharq al-Awsat reports that was the announcement by Major Maher al-Naimi spokesman for the Military Council of the Free Syrian Army (FSA).  "However, up to now we have been unable to capture any of them because the regime's army is trying as much as possible to hide their bodies as quickly as possible whilst leaving the wounded bodies and corpses of Syrians lying on the ground for many hours.  Two civilian aircraft landed three days ago at the Hama military airport, transporting a large number of fighters loyal to Muqtada al-Sadr.  At the same time, Maher al-Assad's (Bashar's brother) Regiment 555 was mobilized, along with other specialized forces known as the "mobile infantry" in order to undertake raids targeting rural Hama and they have also reached the outskirts of Jisr ash-Shugar."

Sending fighters from Iraq is not really the decision of Muqtada al-Sadr but of Teheran as it is increasingly desperate to save Assad.  The war everyone expected to happen in Lebanon is happening now in Syria.  Major al-Naimi also mentioned the head of the FSA, Colonel Riyad al-Asaad is now back in Turkey, probably Hatay Province on Syria's border and that the FSA can still mainly only conduct defensive operations until the international community establishes a no-fly zone and until they can obtain better weaponry.  What the now possess can only fire effectively up to 400 meters/yards.  Nearly 4,000 people have been killed since March when anti-regime demonstrations began in Daraa near Jordan's border against Bashar al-Assad and his police state administration.  More successes by the FSA will enable more Syrian soldiers to defect.

rfn=Ankara -  An increasingly angry Turkey Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has intensified his condemnation of Bashar al-Assad by now, for the first time, demanding he step down in a televised address (hdn).  "For the welfare of your own people and the region just leave the seat.  If you want to see someone who has fought until death against his own people just look at Nazi Germany.  Just look at Hitler at Mussolini, at Nicolae Ceausescu in Romania.  If you cannot draw lessons from them, then look at the Libya leader who was killed just 32 days ago."  In todays action the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, based in London, announced 13 more people, including children were killed mainly near Homs.

rfn=New York -  No doubt Ankara will be supporting the United Nations Resolution vote on Syria when it is presented today in the General Assembly.  The main sponsors of this draft have been Berlin-Paris-London (al-arabiya) and is in partnership with the Arab League (spiegel international).  Germany's United Nations envoy Ambassador Peter Wittig explained, "This draft is a cross-regional one-off effort to address the immediate crisis in the Syrian Arab Republic.  It is driven by the conviction that the General Assembly and the Third Committee (on Human Rights) cannot and should not remain inactive in the face of the current systematic violations of human rights in the Syrian Arab Republic.  In view of the sponsors it is important to support the strong and immediate stance taken by the League of Arab States in this regard and in particular to support its efforts to bring about an immediate end to the violence in the country."

Syria's envoy, Ambassador Bashar Jaafari stated, "It is a declaration of war..."  I suspect it is just that and is a precursor for the United Nations Security Council to call for a no-fly zone.  Swissinfo/Reuters have just reported Turkey's Land Commander is inspecting troops near the Syrian border.

night watch:  rfn=HOMS -  "We had stopped at a checkpoint.  Syrian soldiers emerged from behind sandbags and cursed (Prime Minister) Recep Tayyip Erdogan when we told them we were Turks.  Then they suddenly opened fire on the bus."  Asharq al-Awsat reports that was bus driver Erhan Surmeli speaking to AP by telephone near a hospital in Turkey near the Syrian border after his bus and at least one other one was attacked near Homs by soldiers loyal to Bashar al-Assad.  They of course have heard the constant denunciation coming out of Ankara ever since the Assad regime opened fire on Syrian demonstrators in March.  The denunciation is now becoming more heated as HDN reports Prime Minister Erdogan responded angrily from Istanbul, "You can remain in power with tanks and cannon only up to a certain point.  The day will come when you'll also leave."

rfn=Istanbul -  I suspect Turkey's plans to establish (hdn) a buffer zone across northern Syria have accelerated as Al Jazeera correspondent  Hashem Ahelbarra observed, "This is something which is definitely going to add to the already strained ties between Ankara and Damascus.  Turkey is a pivotal country in the attempts by the international community to enforce regime change in Syria.  They look at what's happened now as a retaliation by the Syrian government, but they are very cautious at this particular moment."  That moment may have already passed.  It is no accident Turkey President Abdullah Gul has just arrived in London (hdn) and I suspect to discuss a timetable.

night watch:  rfn=DAMASCUS -  "The attack was just before dawn and the building was mostly empty.  It seems to have been intended as a message to the regime.  Security Police blocked off the square where the Baath Damascus branch is located.  But I saw smoke rising from the building and fire brigades around it."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was an account from a witness as the Free Syrian Army (FSA) took responsibility for the attack on the ruling Baath Party building in Mazraa district at the heart of Damascus.  The 'message' came just as an interview Bashar al-Assad gave to Britain's Sunday Times was published (al-arabiya) in which Assad vowed he was willing to die in Syria and even stated his administration has not been cruel to civilians.  This comes as activists said the body of Farzat Jarban was found dumped in front of a private hospital in the central city of Homs with two bullet wounds.  Jarban had been video taping pro-democracy demonstrations (asharq al-awsat/ap) in the city which is a center of anti-regime demonstrations and of the FSA.

Thabet Salem, a journalist based in Damascus observed, "It would be an escalation that gives a new dimension to the whole situation."  The head of the FSA, Colonel Riyad al-Asaad, now based in Syria planning more operations, supports the call for the international community to impose a no-fly zone which would create areas where more soldiers waiting to defect could re-locate increasing the ranks of the FSA.  "Soldiers and officers in the army are waiting for the next opportunity."  Colonel Asaad stated, in an interview with Al Jazeera television, the weapons they have come from defecting soldiers, obtained from raids on the Regular Army or brought from weapon dealers inside Syria.  Of course the dealers bring them in from other countries as Syria has long been an active weapons trafficking center.  And as a continued example of the unreality of the regime leadership Foreign Minister Walid Muallem denied the attack on the Baath Party building even took place.

rfn=Tahrir Square - Just days before Parliamentary elections in Egypt Al-Jazeera has a news video on the new violent confrontation between Egyptian Riot Police and thousands of demonstrators (hdn) opposed to the Supreme Military Council.  The revolution established a military government.

rfn=Tripoli -  Al Jazeera has provided links on the arrest of Saif al-Islam, Colonel Muammar Gadhafi's oldest son and his former Chief of Intelligence Abdullah al-Senussi.  Both are wanted by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity.

night watch:  rfn=DAMASCUS -  The following are excerpts from an article in today's Asharq al-Awsat on the impact on demonstrations the Free Syrian Army (FSA) is having on both the security forces of Bashar al-Assad and anti-regime demonstrators:  "There are intermittent clashes in most Damascus countryside cities but concentrated greatly around the city of Duma a hotbed of protests against the al-Assad regime...The dissident army (xinhua) will concentrate its operations against al-Assad's security centers as long as special centers and the arrests and tortures are on the increase."  The urban area of Duma encircles the capital on all sides and its area is 18,018 sq km/11,250 sq ml.  Assad forces are attempting to increase the security of their bases here after the effective attack by the FSA against the Air Force Intelligence compound Wednesday in Harasta.

Last month Assad security forces conducted a violent campaign against every urban area in the greater Damascus area; "More than 40,000 soldiers from the ruling regime's 4th Division and Republican Guards attacked the Damascus countryside and clashed with the FSA in several areas at the eastern Ghawtah amidst a campaign of random arrests that included entire families, raids on farms and houses, total closure of shops, the burning of possessions, the intimidation of women and children and the total cutting off of communications in the blocked areas.  During the military operations, major defections happened between the army and security in Arabayn in Damascus countryside and in other cities in the Governorate and fierce clashes broke out between the two sides."

An organizer of demonstrations (swissinfo/reuters) commented:  "The FSA operation has revived the confidence and hopes of the demonstrators who are banned from staging any demonstration because of the military blockade imposed on most areas of the Governorate.  The Syrian regime cannot control the Damascus countryside cities.  The people here are bound by strong family ties and the entire population comes out to demonstrate in revenge if a demonstrator is martyred in one of the Governorate cities.  The military campaign waged by the war machine of al-Assad's regime reduced the level of popular protests but there will be from now on retaliation through an FSA operation for any arrest campaign or raids by al-Assad's militias.  This is going to create a balance on the ground and allow demonstrations to be staged again.  The people in the Damascus countryside are insisting on bringing down the al-Assad regime no matter how many human and material sacrifices this entails."

rfn=editor:  It was always unrealistic to believe the police state dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad could be overthrown with only peaceful demonstrations. (al-arabiya)  I would guess the head of the FSA, Colonel Riyad al-Asaad now based in Syria, will next concentrate on attacks inside the capital.

rfn=Teheran -  "He lost his life while doing a final test of the missile.  The project was in the final testing phase...It was related to an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and it was a completely high-tech and confidential process." Asharq al-Awsat/AP report that was the admission by Mohammad Tehrani Moghaddam, brother of Brigadier-General Hassan the ballistic missile specialist of Iran's Revolutionary Guards killed in the November 12 explosion at the military base outside the village of Bidjaneh 25 miles/40 km southwest of Teheran.  Iran's ICBM program was developed as a result of several years of satellite tests completed in 2009.  But with these ongoing problems the ICBM threat to the West has been reduced.

night watch:  rfn=ISTANBUL -  "If things continue to go as they are in Syria, more innocent Syrian civilians are killed and Assad remains in power, then you may well see some international intervention."  HDN reports that was the policy statement by Chuck Hagel Co-Chairman of President Barack Obama's Intelligence Advisory Board speaking Thursday on the sidelines of the Black Sea Energy and Economic Forum in Istanbul.  "He cannot maintain his ability to govern his country with the sanctions and no friends and no allies in a country that is erupting.  His people hate him and eventually he will go, that cannot be sustained...I know President Obama and Prime Minister Erdogan talk very often.  They talk about Syria, possible strategies, they talk about how best to handle this.  Of course this is what allies do.  In the end Turkey will take its position based on its own reasons."

rfn=Eastern Mediterranean -  There of course has been speculation as to who will lead the international intervention, will it be the West, Turkey and with the approval of the Arab League and the United Nations Security Council.  The answer may actually be Russia because as Hagel was speaking Thursday Xinhua the Lebanese paper al-Binaa citied a "prominent diplomatic source" that Russian warships will arrive off Syrian territorial waters Friday.  Regular readers of this site know I have often suspected Moscow and Western governments of conducting a public charade of being opposed to each other on the issue of Iran's nuclear program and now the Arab revolt.  But that is being staged to mislead Teheran into thinking the West-Russia do not have the same strategic, industrial concerns namely resource security.  Moscow and the West are actually cooperating along the lines of the Defense Relations Working Group (DRWG) established September last year (cfw).

Allied concerns are of course resource security and Teheran has been disrupting Russia's ability to export oil/gas from the Caucasus and its crossroads of energy pipelines since Chechnya erupted December 1994 as Iran still continues to support groups/governments there opposed to Moscow.  Statements of support for Iran by Russia's leadership is just a diplomatic/deceptive act.  At the same time the West-Russia have been trying to lure Turkey's government away from military cooperation with Iran which is why it is convenient Ankara is also seriously opposed to the Assad regime that it used to invest in so heavily for the past decade.  France Foreign Minister Alain Juppe was just in Ankara and in a joint press conference Turkey Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu (al-arabiya) also expressed his concerns of a possible civil war emerging.

I suspect the international community is increasing its reasons for intervention as another Friday of nationwide protests take place (al-arabiya) with the Facebook Syrian Revolution 2011 calling for governments to expel Syrian Ambassadors.

rfn=Baghdad -  Sources have informed Al-Arabiya U.S. Vice-President Joe Biden will visit Baghdad the first week of December to celebrate the end of combat operations for U.S. troops and the end of the withdrawal of the remaining 40,000 U.S. soldiers that same month, three weeks ahead of schedule.  Iraq Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is due to visit Washington December 12.  This means Teheran will have no Pentagon bases in Iraq to attack but will instead concentrate on Allied bases in the Persian Gulf.  This is why Washington-Berlin have been increasing their weapons sales to governments in the region particularly to Saudi Arabia.

night watch:  rfn=HATAY PROVINCE -  "The Free Syrian Army (FSA) carried out special operations in all Damascus areas to foil a plan being prepared by the regime against our people and to send a message to the regime that the Free Syrian Army can hit anywhere at anytime."  WebIndia123 reports that was the public announcement by the FSA the day after its first attack on a target just outside Damascus, the Air Intelligence Directorate complex in Harasta, as fighting continues across the country with anti-regime demonstrators (xinhua) confronting units still loyal to Bashar al-Assad.  Asharq al-Awsat reports an officer with the SFA has stated since the Arab League voted to suspend the Assad regime 5,000 more soldiers have defected swelling their ranks now to more than 20,000 including nine Colonels who have formed a military council and are prepared to conduct trials after the regime's fall.  A Judge has already been appointed.  These moves mirror in so many ways the preparations taken by the Libyan opposition against Colonel Muammar Gadhafi.  Defections from the military and support from professional circles.

Major Mahir Rahum, spokesman for the Military Council of the FSA explained, "The operation was carried out in coordination with agents inside and after a close monitoring lasting 15 days to avoid hurting civilians inside."  None of the attackers were killed.  Colonel Riyad al-Asaad returned to Syria two days ago to direct attacks especially on the Air Force Intelligence complexs that are in almost every city in the country.  Most of the torture victims come from these centers including activist Ghiyath Matar who had his larynx torn out as it was discovered when his corpse was returned to his family.  The Air Intelligence Directorate was established by Hafiz al-Assad, Bashar's father, in the early 1970s and is now headed by Brigadier General Jamil Hassan and is one of the firecest security agencies defending the Assad regime.

A Syrian opposition member, based in Beirut, stated, "These operations will escalate against all the security organs, particularly those that are hunting down and liquidating the defectors...The Syrian regime will weaken further the more security and intelligence establishments are targeted because the security services are the regime's backbone of the army where the defectors from its ranks are increasing."  Asharq al-Awsat/AP report in a series of interviews Israeli officials actually expect Assad to fall in months perhaps within weeks.  At the same time HDN is reporting Paris-Ankara are attempting to unite the Syrian opposition as France Foreign Minister Alain Juppe arrived in Turkey today for a two day visit to meet Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and will be received by President Abdullah Gul and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.  The uncle of Bashar, Rifaat al-Assad and former Syria Vice-President Abdel Halim Khaddam formed a new opposition group in Paris and the Syria National Council is mostly based in Turkey.

night watch:  rfn=HARASTA -  "I heard several explosions, the sound of machine guns fire being exchanged."  Al-Arabiya/Reuters/AFP report that was the statement of a resident of Harasta a northern suburb of Damascus after the Free Syria Army (FSA) staged a bold attack on the large Air Force Intelligence Complex on the northern edge of the capital at 2:30 am Wednesday morning.  The complex is situated on the Damascus-Aleppo highway and Swissinfo/Reuters report the FSA used shoulder fired rockets.  Helicopters were seen circling over the area after the engagement.  A Western diplomat based in Damascus explained, "To actually (asharq al-awsat) attack a base like this is something else and so close to Damascus as well.  It's not a nationwide civil war, but it is a very specific location, it is looking like that."  He added the attack was "hugely symbolic and tactically new-much much more coordinated than anything we have seen before."  An Arab official commented (al-arabiya) the FSA has increased its operations for the past ten days.

The FSA is based in Turkey and is headed by Colonel Riad al-Asaad and it now numbers more than 15,000 officers/soldiers in its ranks.  This week they announced the formation of a "temporary military council" of nine officers and repeated their intention to "bring down the regime and protect citizens from the repression...and prevent chaos as soon as the regime falls."  The FSA also announced the formation of a military court to try "members  of the regime who are proven to have been involved in killing operations."  Al-Jazeera correspondent Rula Amin, reporting from Jordan observed, "This is probably not the first attack on a security headquarters.  But what is significant about this attack is that it is in Damascus, the captial.  This shows how much trouble there is for the regime."  In other action a retired army officer in his fifties stated tanks of the Assad army were still attacking in the Bab Amro district of Homs, "The tanks were firing according to instructions they were receiving from snipers stationed on the rooftops."

rfn=Teheran -  Tariq Alhomayed of Asharq al-Awsat in his column today addresses the problem Iran's leadership is confronted with due to the Arab revolt in Syria.  He mentions it has been five days since the Arab League resolution which, according to Tariq the Assad regime as a result has "lost its mind" and Hezbollah is now calling the Arab League the "Hebrew League".  Of course Hezbollah is doing so on Teheran's instructions even as Britain's Daily Telegraph has reported meetings between Teheran and the Syrian opposition.  The following are excerpts from Tariq's article 'Iran and the Post-Assad Phase':  'Teheran now feels it has reached the stage of cutting its losses or eliminating them all together.  In practical terms this means the fall of the al-Assad regime,which in turn would mean that the bulk of outlets would be blocked for Iran's ally in Lebanon, Hezbollah.'

'Iran would not be able to extend its Persian bridge from there through Iraq and from Syria to Lebanon, which has effectively been Teheran's port on the Mediterranean...If Iran and its agents in the region are in such a state of confusion while the al-Assad regime is still reeling, how will Teheran react when President al-Assad finally departs?'  There was a small indication as Asharq al-Awsat/AP report an explosion hit the Queen Elissa Hotel in Lebanon's port city of Tyre a hotel frequented by United Nations staffers based in south Lebanon.

night watch:  rfn=DARAA -  The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, based in London, announced at least 69 people have been killed across Syria, but significantly it seems nearly half were soldiers/security forces of Bashar al-Assad.  Swissinfo/Reuters report Al-Jazeera television showed footage of a burning Syrian tank next to burning vehicles in the south near Daraa where anti-regime demonstrations began in March near Jordan's border.  34 soldiers/security forces were killed during an attack on military vehicles by the Free Syrian Army in what may have been their first action in the south of the country. (al-arabiya) Until now most of their attacks were either in Idlib province near Turkey's border or in the city of Homs 85 miles north of Damascus. The SOHR also announced (al-arabiya) 23 people were killed in "gunfire from security and military checkpoints" in southern villages.

rfn=Moscow -  In a parallel development Al-Jazeera reports Burhan Ghalioun, the head of the opposition Syrian National Council (SNC), has arrived in Moscow at the invitation of Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.  Ghalioun stated, "The Russian Foreign Minister has confirmed the need for an Arab initiative because decisions by the Ministerial meeting of the Arab League upheld the Arab peace initiative and didn't contradict it."  Syrian activists have been disappoined at Moscow's apparent support for Bashar al-Assad, even referring to Russia's support as "shameful".  But I suspect that unofficially Moscow realizes Assad's days are numbered and has only maintained its public posture in order to maintain a line of communication with Assad who is no longer talking to Turkey, the West or to most Arab governments.

rfn=Jerusalem -  "The strike injured and inhibited the advancement of Islamic Jihad's rocket production.  Recent raids of escalated violence and the injury of both lives and the daily routine of citizens of Israel's south and leading to a reality in which the IDF (Israel Defense Force) will have to take significant, aggressive action in the Gaza Strip." Haaretz reports that was the policy statement/warning from the IDF chief Lieutenant-General Benny Gantz speaking to the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee of the Knesset Tuesday as intermittent rocket fire from the Gaza Strip continues.  "Alertness is still in place.  Events have been contained thus far but despite that we are still ready and its possible that the situation could escalate with more events unfolding.  As time goes by, in the face of continued Palestinian disappointment, the chance of a violent outburst is still there."

Though the Gaza Strip does not attract the attention it used to it remains a flashpoint Teheran is using to increase the atmosphere of chaos across the region.  But these groups supported by Teheran, Palestinian militants and Hezbollah in Lebanon, have become isolated since the Arab revolt, especially in Syria, has disrupted Iran's plans for coordinated attacks against Israel and the military bases Western governments have in the region.  Though the attacks will still take place Teheran and its regional axis partners are increasingly on the defensive which is very much in Israel's favor.

rfn=Ercis -  As a small example HDN is reporting two unknown gunmen shot up an Iranian tour bus heading to Syria in eastern Turkey, the Ercis district in Van province on the Turkey/Iran border.  Eight people, including the driver, were wounded as he managed to get to a nearby hospital.  Earlier in the Syrian revolt an article mentioned Teheran was sending support, money, to Bashar al-Assad through tour buses of Iranian pilgrims to religious sites in Syria.  This comes just days after a suspicious explosion at one of Iran's military bases that killed one of Iran's ballistic missile commanders.  This latest incident could be the result of an attack by the Iranian Kurdish group PJAK, which became active in July due to support from Berlin.  Or it could be the Iran Revolutionary Guards that have broken away from Teheran after the disputed 2009 elections.  The Arab revolt and now this increased instability inside Iran is forcing Teheran to create more regional fighting sooner than Iran's leadership wanted.  I suspect Iran's government wanted one more year of ballistic missile/nuclear production.

night watch:  rfn=CAIRO -  "The implementation of the suspension is due to begin on Wednesday.  The Foreign Ministers will meet in Morocco to assess the situation and implement the deal."  Asharq al-Awsat/AFP reports that was the announcement by an Arab League official on the upcoming meeting Wednesday in the Morocco capital with officials from Turkey in attendence.  Turkey Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu on Monday met Syrian opposition representatives as activists stated thirty more people (al-arabiya) were killed across Syria on Sunday.  And Syria Foreign Minister Wallid Muallem issued emabarrased apologies to the governments of Turkey-Saudi Arabia-Qatar who had their embassies attacked by angry mobs who support Bashar al-Assad as Jordan King Abdullah openly (al-arabiya) called for Bashar to step down.  Anti regime protests began in March near Jordan's border.

rfn=Paris -  However, a new dimension has been added as Al-Arabiya/AFP report Rifaat al-Assad, uncle of Bashar, has announced, through an interview with the Paris daily Le Monde, "The solution would be that the Arab states guarantee Bashar al-Assad's security so he can resign and be replaced by someone with financial backing who can look after Bashar's people after his resignation."  Rifaat, 73 and the younger brother of Hafez, headed the internal security forces during the 1970s and early 1980s, went into exile in 1984 after a failed attempt to seize power the year before.  Since then he has lived in luxurious exile in London, Paris and Marbella.  "The regime is ready to leave but it wants guarantees, not only for its members but also that there will not be a civil war after its departure.  We need a kind of international or Arab alliance...that could enter into talks with the government itself and be a real guarantor of the concessions that the regime will make."

Significantly, Rifaat dismissed other Syrian opposition groups, including the Syrian National Council who he referred to as "a band of Muslim brothers hiding behind someone who is unknown in Syria."  Rifaat should be taken seriously especially if his new opposition group is well connected in Syria and not just representative of the Alawite ruling minority.  Despite the angry comments generated by his statements he may actually be in a position to see this through.

rfn=Teheran -  "Martyr Moqaddam was the main architect of the Revolutionary Guards cannon and missile power and the founder of the deterrent power of our own country."  Al-Arabiya reports that was part of the eulogy by General Hossein Salami at the funeral of Brigadier General Hassan Moqaddam killed during a suspicious explosion at an Iranian military base 25 miles southwest of Teheran.

night watch:  rfn=TEHERAN -  Huda al-Husseini, Lebanese columnist for Asharq al-Awsat warns in her article, 'Al-Qaeda Returns to Egypt Under Iranian Cover' that Teheran is taking advantage of the breakdown in Egyptian security after the overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak earlier this year.  The following are excerpts:  'Iranian Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi is "attempting to re-order" Egypt, infiltrating Egypt by members of Islamic Jihad of Egyptian origin...Instructions were given by the Iranian intelligence services to those who had entered Egypt through certain routes to set up al-Qaeda cells and establish infrastructure to carry out activities and logistical work in order to destablize Egypt, through tactics of sabotage and terrorist attacks.  They were to take advantage of the weakness of Egyptian security services...Training camps, particularly in Sudan, and to be provided with equipment and weapons: explosives, machine guns, RPG missiles and so on.'

rfn=Teheran -  Recently it was mentioned Teheran had members of the Revolutionary Guard Corp active in Libya hoping Colonel Muammar Gadhafi could hang on a bit longer in an attempt to use the war in Libya to distract attention from the precarious position of Bahsar al-Assad in Damascus.  And since Gadhafi's death Teheran had its agents relocated to Sudan.  This is hardly surprising since Iran's leadership can plainly see Allied governments planning combined operations against Iran's nuclear/ballistic missile facilities.  Teheran may even realize Moscow is prepared for full cooperation against Iran also due to Teheran's support for groups in the Caucascus which have been fighting Russia since 1994 when Chechnya erupted.  The breakdown in Egypt and the availability of the Sudan suits Teheran's purposes to cause as much regional instability, warfare as possible in a desperate attempt to limit Allied attacks.

Baghdad is another government in the region within Teheran's sphere of influence and FNA reports there was a meeting in Iran's capital Sunday between the Ground Force Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps General Mohammad Pakpour and the Iraq Military Chief of Staff Lieutenant-General Babaker Zebari who stated afterward, "Given the fact that Iran and Iraq are two friendly and neighboring countries, they should have very intimate relations.  Since the Islamic Republic of Iran is a powerful country in many fields we decided to meet with the IRGC Ground Force Commander in a bid to exchange views and discuss expansion of mutual cooperation between the two sides."

This is obviously a strategy session on combined operations against the remaining U.S. bases in the country.

night watch:  rfn=CAIRO -  "We were criticized for taking a long time but this was out of our concern for Syria...We are calling on all Syrian opposition parties to a meeting at the Arab League headquarters to agree on a unified vision for the transitional (xinhua) period." Asharq al-Awsat/Reuters report that was the announcement by Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassim, Foreign Minister of Qatar after 19 out of the 22 member states voted to suspend the administration of Bashar al-Assad in Damascus (hdn) which has killed more than 3,500 people since demonstrations began in March against his dictatorship.  Foreign Minister Jassim then warned, "If the violence and killing doesn't stop, the Secretary-General will call on international organizations (al-jazeera) dealing with human rights including the United Nations."

No timetable has been announced but I do not see the Assad regime ending its suppresion of the 23 million people who live in Syria due to the momentum that has been generated by the anti-regime demonstrations.  And every attempt by Assad to terrorize the population into ending the protests has only resulted in inspiring more opposition that is now armed in the form of the 15,000 member Free Syrian Army.  I expect the Arab League will be calling on the UN before the month is over.

rfn=Bidganeh - Swissinfo/Reuters report the death toll from the massive explosions at the Bidganeh military base 25 miles southwest of Teheran has been increased to 27.  Earlier a spokesman for the Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, General Ramezan Sharif stated over the TV channel IRINN, "My dear colleagues in the Revolutionary Guards were moving munitions in one of the arsenals of that base when, due to an incident, an explosion happened."  This was not an Allied attack on an Iranian military base like some people are expecting. (xinhua) Some residents of Teheran's western suburbs actually first believed it was a low level earthquake something the country is no stranger to.  It could have been an accident however ever since the massive anti-government demonstrations after the 2009 elections some members of the Revolutionary Guards announced their opposition to the government and warned they were in a position to conduct disruptive attacks.

rfn=Pentagon -  Washington continues to prepare for full scale war with Teheran as Xinhua reports the Wall Street Journal mentioned Friday the U.S. has approved sending 4,900 "bunker-busting" bombs to the United Arab Emirates. 

rfn=Jarinje -  Tensions in the former Yugoslavia may have eased as B92 reports the newspaper Koha Ditore has mentioned an agreement has been reached between the ethnic Albanian government in Pristina, and the Serbian government in Belgrade have agreed on joint patrols to manage the customs border crossings between Kosovo province and central Serbia.  The crisis began in July and some violent incidents took place between Serbian demonstrators blocking roads and NATO-KFOR units which were supporting the ethnic Albanian government in Pristina after it attempted to control the border crossings as a way of enforcing their authority over the north of the province which is predominantly Serbian.  It is not clear yet if the administration in Pristina completely accepts this agreement.

night watch:  rfn=HOMS -  "The systematic nature of abuses against civilians in Homs by Syrian government forces, including torture and unlawful killings, constitute crimes against humanity."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the accusation made by Human Rights Watch (HRW) as a result of its investigation into activities (al-arabiya) by units of Bashar al-Assad as they continue to suppress anti-regime demonstrations in Syria's third largest city-Homs 85 miles north of Damascus. (hdn)  This city of nearly one million people has become the counterpart to Libya's Misrata which became the political epicenter of the revolt against Colonel Muammar Gadhafi and was subject to a siege by forces loyal to Gadhafi.  Sara Leah Whitson, Middle East Director of HRW stated (asharq al-awsat/ap), "Homs is a microcosm of the Syrian government's brutality."  In its 63 page report released today it mentioned 587 people have been killed in Homs province between mid-April to the end of August, the highest number of any area.

rfn=Al-Khalidiya -  Assad regime forces have concentrated on the historic Al-Khalidiya district since it is a crossroads for the entire urban area and Assad forces have attempted to cut off the district with 45 checkpoints.  Asharq al-Awsat have provided an account from a Syrian activist based there, the following are excerpts:  "The siege is not the first time since the uprising erupted.  The district has been totally ravaged.  Tanks and other armored vehicles entered the district in the early hours of the morning and began indiscriminate shelling of the residential homes most of which have turned to rubble.  Snipers are deployed on the rooftops of houses, schools and clinics to kill anyone that opens a window.  The residents of Al-Khalidiya are suffering from food shortages after businesses like the bakeries have had to close their doors, while a curfew has been imposed...At least 1,000 residents of Al-Khalidiya have been detained and about 400 have been killed since it was targeted."

Al-Khalidiya has been one of the centers of the Free Syrian Army, the defectors from the Assad regime, and residents of this district provided them with a lot of support.  Turkey has been providing the FSA with support which will cause more soldiers of the Assad regime to defect.  It is now being reported in response Bashar al-Assad has begun to encourage the Kurdish community in the northeast of Syria to become an autonomous state and through them to support Kurdish groups in Turkey.  Ankara has warned if Assad ever does so it will cause Turkey to invade at least northern Syria.

rfn=Nouakchott -  "As for our acquisition of Libyan armament that is an absolutely natural thing."  HDN/AFP/AP report that was the announcement by Mokhtar Belmokhtar, an Algerian national and one of the leaders of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) the North African group supported by Teheran.  Belmokhtar was speaking to the Mauritanian news agency ANI on the massive amount of cast off weaponry they have acquired as a result of the overthrow of Colonel Muammar Gadhafi.  It was not surprising Belmokhtar made no attempt to discuss these weapons in detail because I suspect they are nothing more than junk status and subject to premature explosions.

night watch:  rfn=PARIS -  According to the French newspaper Le Figaro, Bashar al-Assad has begun to support Kurdish groups against Turkey in response to Ankara's support of the Syrian opposition against the Assad regime.  HDN reports the Le Figaro article stated Bashar al-Assad has permitted a Kurdish leader, Mohammad Salih Muslim, to return from exile in Iraq as the head of the Democratic Union Party (PYD) which is an affiliate of the Kurdistan Workers Union (PKK) based in Turkey and has been conducting armed attacks in Turkey's southeast.  Assad is so angry at Ankara for its support of the Syrian opposition that Assad is actively trying to establish a Kurdish Autonomous Region, similar to the one in northern Iraq, but with the one in Syria directly connected to Kurdish groups in Turkey and their attacks.  Kurdish schools are now operating among the 1.9 million Kurds in Syria's northeast and they are even allowed to use the Kurdish langauage and sing the Kurdish national anthem which has always been banned in Turkey.

The article in Le Figaro, which is the mouthpiece of the French establishment, gives the impression this is Assad's farewell gesture, a parting shot, to Turkey's leadership, especially to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu since they have taken the lead in condemning the Assad regime and its misuse of Turkey's massive investment in Syria for the past ten years.  Foreign Minister Davutoglu has already warned Assad that under no circumstances should he ever consider using Kurdish communities against Ankara but since relations have deteriorated to such an extent, even become quite personal, Assad has decided to force Turkey to invade Syria, perhaps in order to leave the country/region in a state of chaos.

rfn=El Arish -  "Primary examination showed that Improvised Explosive Devices (IED) were placed under the pipeline and were detonated from a distance.  The attackers used two trucks and extended wires were found at the scene."  Al-Arabiya/Reuters report that was a security source after two explosions in the early hours Thursday morning 25 miles/40 km west of the northern Sinai town of El Arish.  This is the seventh attack on the Egyptian pipeline which carries gas to Israel-Jordan and I suspect it is the work of Teheran using either Hamas or Hezbollah in an attempt to disrupt Egypt and the regional economy.  Bedouins, which never have great relations with Cairo, are being suspect but IED's have long been used by groups in Iraq supported by Teheran.

I expect Teheran will soon extend these attacks to incidents along the Suez Canal and eventually will lead to Egypt's government declaring war on Iran.

night watch:  rfn=VIENNA -  "The agency has serious concerns regarding possible military dimensions to Iran's nuclear program. (al-jazeera)  After assessing carefully and critically the extensive information available to it, the agency finds the information to be overall credible.  This information indicates that Iran has carried out activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device.  The information also indicates that prior to 2003, those activities had been under a structured program and that some activities may still be ongoing."  HDN reports that was the result of the investigation by the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) based in Vienna, its investigation into Iran's nuclear/ballistic missile programs.  The summation of its more than 1,000 pages, ended by saying the agency was aware Teheran is now attempting to fit warheads with radioactive material for ballistic missiles. (xinhua) I suspect the material is plutonium since that was the material North Korea-Iran were providing for Syria, the facility Israel bombed September 2007.

I have always suspected the inspections Teheran allowed the IAEA to make were nothing more than guided tours of some uranium activity, uranium processing has been the subject of deceptive statements out of Iran's nuclear agency to distract the world's attention, like the flags flying around the Natanz facility advertising it so it would be attacked while the real activity was deep underground.  Whatever the real situation it is obvious Allied governments realize they cannot allow Iran's advanced weapons program to proceed much further.  Swissinfo/Reuters report Britain Foreign Secretary William Hague responded and warned, "We are entering a more dangerous phase.  The longer Iran goes on pursuing a nuclear weapons program (swissinfo/reuters) without responding adequately to calls for negotiations from the rest of us, the greater the risk of a conflict as a result."

rfn=Moscow -  That is why it is no coincidence, on the day the IAEA report is released, Xinhua reports Germany President Christian Wulff has arrived in Moscow to meet Russia President Dmitry Medvedev.  No reason was given but for the past several years Berlin-Moscow have increased their military relations, independent of Brussels, in order to reinforce their economic strategic relations that are centered on Russia being the main source of raw materials to industrial concerns across Germany, a relationship which reaches back more than a hundred years.  This is directly threatened by Teheran attempting to become the predominant voice in world energy markets.  Despite what Moscow says publicly on Iran the reality is Allied governments, led by Berlin, have prepared Russia to conduct major offensives in the Caucasus and further south against Iran's nulcear/ballistic missile facilities.  Russia/Iran have been fighting for control of these resources, between the Black-Caspian Sea, since Chechnya erupted in 1994, the region is a crossroads of energy pipelines.

night watch:  rfn=GENEVA -  "More than 60 people are reported to have been killed by military and security forces since Syria signed the peace plan sponsored by the League of Arab states including at least 19 on Eid al-Adha on Sunday."  This morning Al-Arabiya/Agencies report that was the announcement by Ravina Shamdasani, spokeswoman for the United Nations High Commission for Human Rights.  "The brutal crackdown on the dissent in Syria has so far claimed the lives of more than 3,500 Syrians."  The protests against the police state headed by Bashar al-Assad began in the south of the country in Daraa near Jordan's border in March.  However, lately the most intense confrontations have been in the third largest city, Homs, nearly one million people 85 miles north of Damascus. (al-jazeera) This personal account was given by Sami, a resident of Homs (swissinfo/reuters) "I sneaked in to see my father today, who was hit by shrapnel.  The number of troops and Shabbiha (militia) in Bab Amro is now in the thousands and looting is rampant."

Assad forces have been seen carrying refrigerators, televsions and computer screens onto pick-up trucks.  At the same time a school has been turned into a detention center with young people laid out in a courtyard with their hands tied behind their backs.  Yet the business community in Syria is showing less confidence in the regime as Naharnet reports businessmen have alerted London's Financial Times they are smuggling money to Lebanon "every day every hour" and it is being done "under the table." (asharq al-awsat/ap)  This may be the first time suspicious financial connections have served a revolution.

rfn=New York -  As the Free Syrian Army (FSA) increases its attacks, mainly in the northwest province of Idlib near Turkey's border, (naharnet/afp) sources in the opposition government, the Syrian National Council (SNC), have informed Asharq al-Awsat they have received promises the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) will hold a session on Syria after the emergency Arab League Summit in Cairo this coming weekend.  Turkey Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has been sending signals his government is ready and able "to establish a buffer zone on condition of Arab and international cover" in other words a UN resolution as was in the case of Libya against Colonel Muammar Gadhafi.  I would not be surprised if the Arab League has been insulted to the point of not only condemning the Assad regime but on calling on full international support for the SNC to replace Bashar al-Assad and as quickly as possible. 

Sources in Turkey's Foreign Ministry have indicated Ankara has been involved in high level contact with Qatar, which heads the Arab League, and with Washington.  Radwan Ziyadah of the SNC explained these measures are being taken "because the regime has been given three chances so far and squandered them all.  I believe this is enough to force the hesitant countries to take a stand.  Things will be better if it (AL) takes the right decision, demands international protection and authorizes the UNSC to take the appropriate resolution.  It will then be impossible for Russia and China to use the (veto) or even abstain from voting."  Most recent statements out of Moscow-Beijing have been extremely critical of Bashar al-Assad.

night watch:  rfn=BAB AMRO -  "They are storming houses now and arresting people, but not many are left in Bab Amro. (naharnet) The Shabbiha (pro-Assad militia) have brought pick-up trucks and are looting buildings."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the account from resident Raed Ahmad in the Bab Amro neighborhood of Homs, 85 miles north of Damascus after nearly a week of bombardment by Assad tanks/troops. (al-arabiya) The opposition Local Coordinating Committees (LCC), the umbrella organization that conducts the anti-Assad demonstrations, said scores of people have been killed with hundreds injured.  Homs has been at the center of anti-regime demonstrations ever since they began in the south of Syria in Daraa near Jordan in March.

More than 3,000 people have been killed since then causing the Arab League to confront Bashar al-Assad as defectors from the Assad army formed the Free Syrian Army (FSA) 15,000 of them, with its leadership headed by Colonel Riad al-Asaad based in Turkey.  Ahmad observed, concerning the FSA, "They were fighting tanks with mostly rifles.  The Syrian siege has basically turned Homs into a disaster zone.  The regime wants everything to look spic and span for the Arab League.  They even started painting army troop carriers pale blue (color of UN vehicles) and the Shabbiha are wearning brand new police uniforms churned out by the factories."

rfn=London -  I suspect the pale blue UN color was chosen by Teheran the United Nations being an institution Iran's leadership hates.  Despite public denials by officials in the West-Russia, on preparations for an attack on Iran, the reality behind the scenes indicate Allies are doing more than conducting long range air attack exercises at Italy's NATO base in Sardinia as was reported last week.  Allied governments now seem to be concentrating on increasing regional support for full scale war with Teheran beyond just working with Israel-Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States.  Naharnet reports Lebanon Premier Najib Miqati will be in London at No. 10 Downing Street Monday, meeting with Britain Prime Minister David Cameron (naharnet) on ways for Lebanon to receive technical, administrative and military assistance.  Relations between the governments will be discussed along with regional developments. 

Before Premier Miqati meets Prime Minister Cameron he will first meet with Lord David Howell Minister of State at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and Britain Ambassador to Beirut Tom Fletcher.  This comes just one month after Lebanon Army Commander General Jean Qahwaji held meetings in Washington at the Pentagon.  Though the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon, established by Teheran in 1982, now possesses 40,000 rockets, they may only have time to use four of them knowing the offensive the Israel Defense Force (IDF) has prepared.  Hezbollah is increasingly being viewed as a spent force.

rfn=Gaza City -  Xinhua reports the IDF has conducted tank fire on the area between eastern Gaza City and the Israel border and several strong explosions were heard in Gaza City itself.  No reasons were given but recently the Israel Air Force dropped leaflets in the Gaza Strip and warned not to come within three hundred yards/meters of the border fence.  There have been heavy exchanges between the IDF and Palestinian militant units particularly the Islamic Jihad who even announced martyrdom is more desirable than victory.

night watch:  rfn=ANKARA -  "We gave the Syrian regime two days following the announcement of its acceptance of the Arab initiative, and this was in order to reveal its lies and maneuverings."  Asharq al-Awsat reports that was the warning from the head of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) Colonel Riad al-Asaad speaking by phone from Ankara as forces of Bashar al-Assad continue their attacks and mass arrests of anti-regime protesters across Syria. (al-jazeera) Today, after its true intentions have been exposed; we will resume military operations and will operate in a larger scale manner than before...I will work to establish a Military Council as soon as possible.  We are defectors from the Syrian Army and we have the right to militarily defend ourselves and our people and anybody who thinks that the Syrian regime will be toppled by peaceful protests is deaming.  Therefore we reject this path of peaceful revolution."

"Defectors join our ranks by day, and I can confirm that the FSA has more than 15,000 soldiers."  Although Colonel Asaad stated there was no coordination with Turkey the British paper The Daily Telegraph has written Ankara is providing covert support to the FSA which is consistent with the hatred Turkey's leadership has for the Assad regime.  For the better part of ten years Ankara invested heavily in Bashar al-Assad, even showed it off with massive publicity even gave the impression and believed it was tantamount to the merging of both the governments of Turkey-Syria.  Until early this year when Assad ignored Ankara's warnings Syria will be hit by popular demonstrations unless Assad finally made serious reforms and opened up Syria's politics and economy. 

The Assad regime refused for that reason, it would end their control over all of the country's economy and the regime assumed the region and international community would never seriously go beyond diplomatic support for the opposition.  Colonel Riad continued, "We want to make a safe zone in the north of Syria, a buffer zone in which the FSA can get organized."  Concerning the Syrian National Council (SNC) the opposition government also based in Turkey, the Colonel stated, "We are waiting for them to appoint a high delegation and send a representative to speak to us about how we can support their aims militarily."

rfn=Qom -  "The possibility of a military attack against Iran is now closer to being applied than the application of a diplomatic option. (hdn) We must stay calm and resist pressure so that we can consider every alternative."  France24/AFP reports that was the diplomatic warning from Israel President Shimon Peres, speaking to Israel's television Channel Two, as he indicated Allied governments are on the verge of announcing official justification for a pre-emptive attack on Iran's nuclear/ballistic missile bases to finally end Iran's research and development of such weaponry.  "I don't think that any decision has already been made but this is an impression that Iran is getting closer to nuclear weapons." (al-arabiya) The intelligence services of the different countries are keeping an eye on (Iran) are worried and putting pressure on their leaders to warn that Iran is ready to obtain nuclear weapons." (hdn) The United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna, is to issue a report November 8-9 which will have "a decisive effect" on decision making.

Allied concerns increased two years ago after Iran completed its series of satellite tests to increase the range of its ballistic missiles.  The main target of Iran's missiles is the West (including Vienna) since it is Teheran's main rival for control of global energy markets.  Moscow is also supportive of the Allied industrial concern since Russia/Iran have been fighting for control of the resources in the Caucasus since 1994 when Chechnya erupted.  The Caucasus is a crossroads of energy pipelines carrying oil-gas resources to Europe and the export of raw materials has been the foundation of Russia's economy for more than a century particularly to industrial concerns in Germany.

night watch:  rfn=BAB AMRO -  "The Arab League initiative was born dead.  It was never meant to be alive.  No opposition figure was involved in it.  In the last three days there has been a major escalation in the level of violence in Homs."  WebIndia123 reports that was the comment by a Syrian protest leader as armored units of Bashar al-Assad continue their bombardment of Homs, concentrating on the poor residential district of Bab Amro for the third day, blatantly ignoring negotiations with the Arab League conducted just a few days ago.  Syrian activists said at the time Assad was merely using the negotiations to buy time.  Today, Arab League Secretary-General Nabil Elaraby admitted, "The failure of the Arab solution would lead to catastrophic results for the situation in Syria and the region as a whole."  The problem of course it was the wrong solution, negotiations with the head of a police state dedicated to at first maintaining exclusive economic control over all of Syria's economy and now Assad is fighting for his very existence and for his network.

Homs, population of nearly one million, 85 miles north of Damascus is the center of Assad's effort to destroy the now armed opposition because the city is a center of the Syrian Free Army.  Swissinfo/Reuters carried this account from an activist, Samer, speaking by phone from the city; "Whole buildings have been gutted by tank fire.  Bread has run out and people who get hit in the streets are dying from their wounds on the spot because no one can reach them."  Rami Abdel Rahman, in London with the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights stated, "The humanitarian situation in Bab Amro has become horrific. (al-jazeera) Inhabitants are reporting total siege and dwindling food and medicine supplies."  Perhaps starvation is Assad's latest weapon.

More than 3,000 people have been killed since anti-Assad demonstrations began in March in the southern city of Daraa near Jordan's border then spread quickly across the country including suburbs of the capital.  Assad has had plenty of people to negotiate with for the past eleven years and he only pretended to do so as his network increased its strangle hold on the country. 

night watch:  rfn=HARASTA - "How long is the Arab League going to listen to this liar."  Naharnet/AFP reports that was the angry message on a demonstration placard in Harasta near Damascus Friday as forces of Bashar al-Assad continued his open fire policy on any demonstration across Syria.  The heaviest assault again took place in Homs, the city of one million 70 miles north of Damascus, as Assad units continue to rake the districts of Bab Amr, Ghuta and others with machine gun fire. (asharq al-awsat/reuters)  Demonstrations in the eastern city Deir al-Zour, Banias and Kanaker near the capital were also attacked by security forces.  My guess is the Arab League will continue to sit by idly while it pretends to ignore the weapons trafficking into Syria in support of the Syrian Free Army.  After the deaths of more than 3,000 people, since anti-Assad demonstrations began in March, I doubt if any government, including Turkey, will ever provide official weapons support for Syria's opposition.

rfn=Damascus -  'In the first anti-Assad marches in Latakia last March, 200 took part.  Assad's henchmen killed eight of the marchers.  The following week the number had risen to 2,000.  Assad's henchmen killed 19.  In the third week, the number had risen to over 20,000.  With local variations, this has happened all over Syria.'  That is an excerpt from an extensive article on the revolt in Syria against Bashar al-Assad written by Amir Taheri the Iranian Editor in Exile who wrote the definitive book The Spirit of Allah on the leader of Iran's 1979 revolution the Ayatollah Khomeini.  Today's article is titled, "Syria: Bashar's Dangerous Myopia".  Taheri referred to the recent interviews Bashar al-Assad gave to Russia and British media outlets and analyzed Bashar's performance in which, 'Assad seemed unable or unwilling even to understand what is happening in Syria.  He dismissed the protests as "not worth bothering about" and wondered whether the protesters were even Syrian.'

'Assad, who is becoming an (al-jazeera) embarrassment even to his Iranian patrons, is unable to provide Syria with a minimum of security and freedom without which no country could function...With every day that passes, one learns of a protest in a new place, including those that even specialists had not heard about.  I have made a list of those places.  By last count, Syria had witnessed protest marches in 87 towns and villages, a staggering number.  Assad makes much of his claim that Syria's two largest cities, Damascus and Aleppo have remained relatively calm.  That claim is manifestly false.  Despite the fact that parts of Damscus and its suburbs have been turned into armed camps, the capital has witnessed a string of protest marches.  In Aleppo, a student march attracted a large turnout while dozens of factories in the suburbs have been hit by strikes.'

'Every despot has a penchant for self-deception.  Even as his capital is about to fall he deludes himself by claiming that he is safe in his bunker.  Assad has become a divisive element in Syria's complex politics...presiding over the splintering of the armed forces with more and more officers and men defecting to an alternative army.  Assad's presence has even divided his own Alawite community.'

rfn=Brnjak -  Barricade wars in northern Kosovo between NATO-KFOR (Kosovo Force) units and Serbian communities have intensified as B92 reports KFOR has removed a barricade in Brnjak, the administrative crossing into central Serbia as Serbians in the area erect another.  A KFOR helicopter was seen flying over the confrontation while NATO troops were on nearby hills photographing and videotaping the incident.  Oliver Ivanovic, Serbia's State Minister for Kosovo warned, "I am afraid that it could only lead to strengthening of the barricades in the entire northern Kosovo.  This is an unnecessary action of KFOR which can only raise tensions and there is no need for it."

This latest crisis began in July when the ethnic Albanian government in Pristina, Kosovo, attempted to enforce its authority in the northern part of the province which is mainly Serbian and has never accepted Pristina's declaration of independence for the province in 2008.  But the declaration was recognized by most NATO-EU (European Union) governments as a way of continuing to find ways to destroy Serbia in the name of European unity and cooperation.  A policy encouraged by most governments in both organizations, based in Brussels, as a way of orchestrating the destruction of Yugoslavia begun in 1991 with the recognition of the independence of Slovenia-Croatia.  This has irresponsibly led to a wave of extreme nationalism along ethnic-religious lines which borders on tribalism and that is why the news from this regional theatre sounds like the 19th century or even the Dark Ages. 

NATO has warned it will use violence to remove the Serbian barricades and that will lead to the most serious fighting since the alliance's 78 day air offensive against Serbia in 1999.  Since then Serbia has re-armed, with assistance from Russia, and in 2006 the Serbia government in Belgrade signed security agreements with Athens-Teheran.  Despite Greece's extreme economic crisis it has maintained one of the largest military budgets in Europe.

night watch:  rfn=CANNES -  "We had the opportunity to talk about a range of security issues.  One in particular that I want to mention is the continuing threat posed by Iran's nuclear program. (webIndia123) The IAEA (United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna) is scheduled to release a report on Iran's nuclear program next week and President Sarkozy (xinhua) and I agree on the need to maintain the unprecedented pressure on Iran to meet its obligations."  Al Arabiya reports that was the Allied policy statement by U.S. President Barack Obama in Cannes after his meeting with President of France Nicolas Sarkozy the day before the start of the G20 summit in the Riviera resort city.  I suspect the 'range of issues' actually means range of targets, enemy governments, Bashar al-Assad in Damascus as well as Teheran.  This is not the first time Iran's nuclear program has interrupted a G20 Summit.  September 2009 the Summit in Pittsburgh was disturbed as three heads of state, Sarkozy-Obama and then Britain Prime Minister Gordon Brown, expressed their concern over Iran's nuclear facility near Qom constructed inside a mountain to shield it from air attack.

More than a year ago (cfw) this site reported the Pentagon had been shipping hundreds of bunker bombs to the British base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean in preparations for offensives against Iran's nuclear/ballistic missile programs.  The situation became more immediate two years ago because Iran completed a series of successful satellite tests by early 2009 which greatly increased the range of its ballistic missiles that can now reach the West.  These discussions come right after NATO has just ended its sucessful operation against Libya Colonel Muammar Gadhafi and despite official denials I would not be suprised if the Alliance is now targeting Assad in Syria and Iran in cooperation with Israel.  The Israel Air Force (IAF) has completed long range air exercises at the Italy-NATO airbase at Decimomannu, Sardinia and Russia will be attacking Teheran's support of groups in the Caucasus that have been fighting Russia since December 1994 when Chechnya erupted.

rfn=Benghazi -  "Of course we are prepared for the worst, but we hope that they (U.S.) think twice before they put themselves on a collision course with Iran."  HDN/Reuters reports that was the warning from Iran Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi speaking from the Libyan city of Benghazi as he explores the availability of the country's new government.  I will be surprised if the Foreign Minister and Teheran are aware that their real threat is just to their north across the Caucasus which is a crossroads of energy pipelines.  Those pipelines are an enormous revenue earner for Moscow through energy exports to the West, particularly to these enormous conentration of industry across Germany.  But Berlin has encouraged Moscow to conduct an elaborate show of cooperation and (fna) support of Teheran as Russia's military prepares to attack Iran also.

rfn=Homs Province -  Civil war in Syria may have begun as Xinhua reports the privately owned Syrian paper Al-Watan has stated there have been scores of people killed by unknown (france24) armed gunmen across Homs province.  This is in addition to the usual attacks by armored units of the Assad regime in the city of Homs. (al-arabiya) Thirteen army and security agents of Assad have been killed in attacks and gunmen, probably with the Syrian Free Army (SFA), have cut off the international highway with Tel Kalah on the border with Lebanon.  A tissue factory was even attacked and that may have been by a pro-Assad militia group.  In the meantime opposition figures are expressing extreme skepticism that Bashar al-Assad and the remnants of his police state regime are going to make any real reforms presented to them recently by the Arab League.  Most of the opposition said Assad was just attempting to buy time.

night watch:  rfn=KFAR LAHA -  "They were workers at a small building blocks factory. (dawn) The exact time of their death is not known but it appears it was this morning."  Al Jazeera/Reuters report that was the announcement by phone by Ahmad Fouad an activist in Homs on the killing of these Sunni workers in the village of Kfar Laha near Homs one of the major protest centers against Bashar al-Assad and the scene of heavy street fighting between the Syrian Free Army (SFA) and Assad forces.  It now appears this may have been a revenge killing after nine members of the Alawite sect, which Bashar al-Assad belongs to, were killed recently in the same area.  That claim was made by a Syrian activist speaking through a social networking site used by Assad supporters.  These incidents have taken place near a main roadblock manned by Assad units.  Omar Idlibi, a prominent anti-Assad activist in Beirut, stated not all the details of the killing of the Assad supporters are yet clear.

It is known the Assad supporters were dragged from a bus in Homs province.  They may have been enroute or coming from one of the pro-Assad demonstrations the regime has begun to stage.  These revenge killings could be the beginning of the civil war analysts have been warning about especially since the Assad regime has generated so much hatred by attacking Sunni communities and Palestinian refugee camps.  It has also been reported armed civilians are fighting alongside the SFA which could increase the possibility of those same civilians targeting the Alawite ruling sect which is only 16 percent of Syria's 23 million population.

rfn=Decimomannu -  Haaretz/Reuters are reporting the Israel Air Force (IAF) last week completed a series of long range air exercises at Italy's NATO air base at Decimomannu, Sardinia.  The IAF has used this facility for the past few years and with the investigative systems and technology available at the base pilots and squadrons can review their performances.  Other than combat drills, air refueling was practiced along with air monitoring stations. (xinhua) Six different types of IAF squadrons participated.  Israel and most NATO militaries are increasing their coordination and planning against Iran and if need be the Assad regime and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

night watch:  rfn=PARIS -  "They spoke about putting in place a high military council, with Generals running the country and responsible for making senior strategic options."  Al-Arabiya reports that was a statement from a Syrian opposition figure speaking to the French paper Le Figaro on two behind the scenes meetings Iranian diplomats held with diplomats from the U.S. in late August and early September, in an undisclosed location, (possibly Paris) as they discussed the revolt against Bashar al-Assad in Syria.  I suspect the reason for the concerns in Teheran/Washington is because neither of them control the Arab revolt which has now extended into Syria which of course is at the center of the regional power struggle between Western governments and Iran over control of the region's resources. 

According to a French diplomat, in charge of monitoring the Syrian crisis, Iran has agreed to a new government in Damascus and "even to a change at the top of the regime."  The French diplomat stated the relationship between Iran and the Assad regime was unbalanced which is not surprising but it is quite possible Teheran's influence with Assad's decision making is waning and has realized what Ankara realized; that all the money both Ankara-Teheran have invested in Assad is seen by the regime as belonging to the regime exclusively and Assad's inner circle of course assumes therefore they can do as they please with any investment in Syria since they control all of the country's economy.  As I have written, earlier in the revolt, any money Teheran invests now could end up the next hour in Dubai since the regime leadership sees the hand writing on the wall and they may be planning a lucrative exile some place, possibly in the Gulf States.

It may have been Washington's represenatives that proposed the Assad regime's military leadership set up a military government as is the case in Egypt.  But the Egyptian military supported the removal of Hosni Mubarak and that is not the case in Syria since the Generals here support Assad and will until they realize more of their own units are going to defect.  What began with the regime's leadership at first protecting their privileges against the revolt, has now become a fight for their survival with the emergence of the Syrian Free Army (SFA) and only two core units the Republican Guard and Fourth Armored Division can be trusted.

It seems Teheran, through its Revolutionary Guards based in Damascus, has tried to convince Assad units to cease firing in the streets.  But that is against the modus operandi of the regime which loves to fire at any moving target, however now the moving targets are firing back and I suspect Assad now views this advice coming from Teheran as completely ludicrous knowing it would make him defenseless.  Nor is it realistic to assume a military leadership, who is an integral part of the network that owns the economy, and with an ridiculous sense of personal glorified leadership can come together and remove Assad.  I would not be surprised if there are petty rivialries within the military hierarchy that prevents them from acting as a united "band of brothers."

Any agreement with the Assad regime that is being announced is not worth the paper it is printed on.  Reality left the regime when they imposed emergency rule and have maintained it since 1963.  A rule imposed, not to confront any foreign enemy, but to suppress the Syrian people which the regime obviously hates.

rfn=Jerusalem -  "Terrorists leaders send others to become martyrs but do not become martyrs themselves.  If the rocket attacks do not stop, we will take direct action against the terrorists leaders and their infrastructure, action which has already proved itself in the past."  Xinhua/Ynet reports that was the latest policy statement from Israel Vice-Premier Silvan Shalom speaking Tuesday after three days of rocket fire from Gaza by Palestinian militants and retaliatory air strikes by the Israel Air Force (IAF).  Several leaders of Islamic Jihad have been killed in the IAF responses and now several Ministers in Israel's government are openly calling for another major offensive which will finally destroy Hamas and other militant units controlled by Teheran.  Iran ordered the rocket attacks to resume right after the recent prisoner exchange between Israel and the Palestinian militants.

The nightmare for Teheran is combined Allied operations against Iran's nuclear/ballistic missile facilities and by forcing Israel to (xinhua) conduct another invasion into Gaza, then have Hezbollah attack Israel from the north, it would reduce the chances the Israel Defense Force would have in participating in Allied offensives against Iran.  Teheran has always planned to use Hamas-Hezbollah-Assad as sacrifices to distract attention away from Iran's government.

rfn=Kashmir -  Al Jazeera has provided an excellent timeline on Kashmir: The Forgotten Conflict.  November is an important month in this South Asia theatre since it is the beginning of the Dry Season.  The Islamic uprising in the disputed state of Kashmir begain at this time and just three years ago Muslim militants trained in Pakistan conducted the horrific three day attacks in Mumbai which nearly set off the fourth war between India/Pakistan since their independence in 1947.  However, this time both Teheran-Beijing are poised to enter.  Pakistan General Pervez Musharraf presented Iran his Action Plan in 2007 and Beijing has revived its claim over the northeast India state of Arunachal Pradesh which China invaded for one month in October 1962.

night watch:  rfn=BERLIN -  In an attempt to incorporate Turkey into closer strategic/military cooperation with Western governments Turkey Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will pay a two day visit to Berlin November 1-2.  HDN/ANA reports after Germany, Prime Minister Erdogan will then proceed to France to attend the G20 Summit in Cannes (xinhua) November 3-4.  It is impossiblde not to notice Ankara's central role in international crisis from Southeast Europe/Serbia to West Asia/Syria and governments in the West want to make certain Ankara does not become too close to Teheran.  And I would not be surprised, since NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen is now announcing the alliance has no intention of intervening in Syria (al-arabiya) as it did in Libya, Berlin may present Ankara with the proposal to instead arm the Syria Free Army which is based in Turkey.

Delegations from Germany-Turkey will be conducting sessions on regional issues concerning Cyprus-North Africa-West Asia (Middle East) and I suspect Berlin wants to use Ankara's official condemnation of the Assad regime and encourage Turkey to take the next step, arming the SFA, which would increase the armed opposition's ability to conduct more effective attacks on Assad forces causing more defections.  The Assad regime and Iran's government will of course realize the support the West-Turkey are sending to the SFA and may therefore decide to have violence erupt in Lebanon threatening the European troops in the south of the country and have Palestinian militants increase their rocket fire against Israel as a way of preventing as much cooperation as possible between Allied governments against Iran.

Teheran realizes Assad days as head of state are numbered but that he is still useful in attracting a lot of attention and causing more regional chaos as the Assad regime is destroyed.  Qatar Foreign Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem al-Thani warned, "The entire region is at risk of a massive storm."  The storm is inevitable given the competing agendas of regional/international forces already at war, the only question is who will finally set it off full scale?  It won't be just one incident or government but a combination of them.  Regular readers of this site know I have been warning about an expanded regional war for several years and that I actually believe it began in February when Libya Colonel Muammar Gadhafi opened fire on demonstrators.  The storm is temporarily paused.

rfn=St. Petersburg -  Russia Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has summoned Pakistan Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani to St. Petersburg under the guise of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting where Islamabad has observer status.  Xinhua reports the meeting is to take place November 7 and normally I would attach no importance to it since it is used to discuss economic cooperation.  But this comes as reports circulate (webIndia123) Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) has spied on the 180 German officers conducting training missions in Afghanistan and as suicide bomb attacks against NATO troops and bases have become more effective (al-jazeera).  The most recent accusations on Pakistan's espionage comes from the German paper Bild am Sontage (dawn) which reported private telephone calls, including messages to the German Interior Ministry, military mission orders and lists of police officers names, had been intercepted by the ISI raising fears sensitive information could end up in the hands of the Taliban.  This is to be expected since everyone is watching everyone, but Berlin seems to have decided it is time to publicize reasons to disengage from, not only from Afghanistan, but from any potential strategic cooperation with Islamabad.

Prime Minister Putin has been Berlin's main international agent ever since he was handpicked to join the enormously corrupt administration of President Boris Yeltsin which had been depositing Russia's budget into Switzerland.  That of course caused Russia to collapse economically in 1998 and place Russia's eleven time zones of resources up for grabs and potentially out of reach of Germany's enormous concentration of industry.  Berlin became familiar with Putin when he was a KGB Colonel based in Dresden during the last years of the Cold War which finally ended in 1990.  And Germany knew he could assess serious information instead of dismissing it.  And the information revolves around resource security first in Russia then Central Asia-Caucasus then further south to the Persian Gulf and also Afghanistan.  A geological team sent by the Pentagon discovered enormous amounts of strategic raw materials and since the NATO mission is ending Berlin and Colonel Putin realize Islamabad will be less deceptive with Moscow than with Brussels-Washington-Berlin.  Russia is being prepared by industrial concerns in the West, led by Berlin, to fill the vacuum the West is leaving across Eurasia.

night watch:  rfn=DAMASCUS -  "First and foremost, we are relying on Russia as a country with which we are bound by strong ties, in the historical perspective.  Starting from the first days of the crisis, we remained in constant contact with the Russian government."  Al Jazeera reports these are excerpts from two revealing interviews given by Bashar al-Assad to foreign media outlets.  On Sunday, and the first excerpt, to Russia's Channel One which will be followed by excerpts of a Saturday interview with Andrew Gilligan of Britain's Sunday Daily Telegraph.  Continuing on Channel One, "We give a detailed account to our Russian friends of the latest developments."  This is exactly what Allied governments want to see because they know Moscow then informs (hdn) the West-Riyadh on the latest state of Assad's mind which is obviously in orbit.  Even from the video with the Al Jazeera link you can see Assad is lost in his own imagination while trying to maintain a veneer of calm as killings in Syria, especially in Homs, continued as the interviews were taking place. 

But the killings are no longer one way or one sided because the Syrian Free Army (SFA) is in action everyday attacking Assad units and I suspect defections away from Assad will increase especially when the international community imposes a no fly zone and arms the SFA.  Al-Arabiya reports Arab League representatives confronted Assad in Damascus Wednesday and sources alerted the Kuwait paper Al-Qabas, the Arab League warned Assad the international community is preparing to intervene against him as it just did against Colonel Muammar Gadhafi in Libya.  Yesterday NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen announced the alliance could act without the approval of the United Nations Security Council due to the humanitarian crisis caused by attacks and bombardments by Assad forces on villages, residential areas in cities and on hospitals, mosques.  The Arab League delegation was led by Qatar which played an active role in the offensive against Gadhafi.

Just one example of Assad's imaginary thinking was when he proudly (webindia123) referred to the "historical perspective" while deliberately ignoring the current perspective of popular demonstrations against him as if history can save him.  To Andrew Gilligan, Assad expounded that Western governments "are going to ratchet up the pressure definitely...but Syria is different in every respect, from Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen.  The history is different.  The politics is different.  Syria is the hub now in the region.  It is the fault line and if you play with the ground you will cause an earthquake.  Do you want to see another Afghanistan, or tens of Afghanistans?  Any problem in Syria will burn the whole region. If the plan is to divide Syria, that is to divide the whole region."

editor=Syria of course is not Afghanistan but somehow Assad imagines that it is even though he earlier stated the uniqueness of his country as opposed to those led by dictators who have been overthrown by popular revolts.  Saudi Arabia is actually more of a hub than Syria though Syria is the center of international concern on regional stability.  Assad is desperate to increase his sense of self-importance and to make himself believe the region cannot survive without him.  The plan of course is not to divide Syria or the region but to use the burning Arab revolt to continue to overthrow dictators like Assad and in the process engulf those who support him: Hamas-Hezbollah-Iran's government.

night watch:  rfn=HOMS -  Major fighting has erupted in the central Syria city of Homs north of Damascus after the Syrian Free Army (SFA) killed seventeen soldiers of the Assad regime during attacks on two security posts Friday night.  Al-Jazeera reports the tanks were concentrating on the historical district of Bab Amr using anti-aircraft weapons and machine guns though gunfire was heard in other parts of Homs as well.  Nearly fifty people have been killed in Homs since Friday demonstrations, killed by Assad forces as the news video shows military vehicles firing on people inside a mosque.  Only the increasing concern by the international community has prevented a massacre of Syrian people as was in the case of the 1982 Hama revolt against Hafez al-Assad, Bashar's father. (asharq al-awsat)  The military assault by the Syrian government then included air attacks that killed 45,000 people with 15,000 missing.

rfn=Copenhagen -  The SFA has even released a news video statement warning units in and around Daraa, near Jordan's border, supporting Bashar al-Assad they will soon come under attack.  And recent statements by NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen indicate when that happens there could be NATO air support as part of an international alliance against Assad.  B92 reports Secretary-General Rasmussen was speaking in Copenhagen to the Danish paper Politiken, "There can be situations when the international community has legal basis to intervene without the support of the UN Charter, without a resolution of the Security Council."  Rasmussen went on to use the alliance's recent action against Libya saying it "was a huge success, with 25,000 flights and 10,000 strikes and without confirmed victims caused by NATO."

rfn=Gaza - "There is no chance of speaking about a truce now, following such a big crime against leaders of the group.  Now we are talking about the suitable response to this crime."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the warning from Islamic Jihad spokesman Abu Ahmed after the second air attack from the Israel Air Force (IAF) this week in the Gaza Strip killed Ahmed al-Sheikh Khalil and four senior members.  The IAF attacks were in response to rocket fire from Gaza which hit close enough to Tel Aviv to set off sirens.  Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri stated this is a "serious escalation against our people."  It is actually an escalation caused by Teheran which had Islamic Jihad resume rocket attacks right after the prisoner exchange between Israel and Palestinian militant groups.

The exchange provided a sense of closure to the heavy fighting begun in June 2006 when Teheran ordered Hamas to conduct the raid which captured the Israeli soldier and that prompted an invasion by the Israel Defense Force.  Then, just a few weeks later Teheran had Hezbollah, in Lebanon, enter the conflict by conducting attacks on northern Israel causing an IDF invasion into Lebanon.  Teheran is in position to use both groups, Palestinians-Hezbollah to increase the regional war already in progress in an attempt to disrupt Allied attacks against Iran's nuclear-ballistic missile facilities.  Haaretz is now reporting there is more rocket fire coming from the Gaza Strip.  A new escalation seems to be under way.

night watch:  rfn=AMMAN -  "We will not allow any chaos or oppression in Syria, this is our responsibility toward the Syrian people."  HDN reports that was the policy statement from Turkey Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu speaking in Amman, Jordan at a joint press conference with Jordan Foreign Minister Nasser Judeh who agreed entirely with Turkey's position.  Significantly, Foreign Minister Davutoglu stressed Ankara does not tolerate terrorism which is related to his recent statement in Doha, Qatar, where he warned Assad should under no circumstances encourage Kurdiah communities to revolt against Turkey.  This is the angriest Turkey's leadership has been over the Syrian situation and I suspect Ankara has decided to go beyond criticism and hosting Syrian opposition meetings and refugees.  Davutoglu may have been instructed by Ankara to alert the region Turkey is preparing to go to the next step, armed intervention, first by arming the Syrian Free Army (SFA) then, if need be an invasion.

rfn=Kafr Nabl -  It is also quite possible Ankara will be an active supporter of a no-fly zone over Syria, as was the case in Libya, which is what anti-Assad demonstrators called for during Friday's demonstrations. (al-arabiya/afp) "We call on the international community to impose a no-fly zone so that the Syrian Free Army can function with greater freedom", was the message on the Facebook page Syrian Revolution 2011.  One of the most active areas of operation for the SFA, which numbers more than 10,000 soldiers who defected from the Assad regime, is the northwest province of Idlib adjacent to Turkey's Hatay province. (al-jazeera)  The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) based in London released this statement on today's mass demonstration in Kafr Nabl, "Despite the siege, the proliferation of checkpoints and the encirclement of mosques, people staged a mass demonstration in Kafr Nabl" and they also demanded a no-fly zone. (naharnet) More than thirty people were killed by Assad regime forces which brings the total dead since March to well over 3,000.

rfn=Ur -  "Thirty people were killed in last night's explosions including five security personnel and 100 people were wounded including four security personnel."  Swissinfo/Reuters reports that was the statement released by the Iraq Interior Ministry after at least two bombs were set off in the northeast Baghdad district of Ur near Sadr City, the base of the Shia militia the Mahdi Army controlled by Teheran.  These explosions were also caused by Teheran to continue to weaken the Iraq security forces.

rfn=Pristina -  A decision was just made in Pristina, the city in Kosovo which serves as the government seat of the ethnic Albanian adminsitration, that may defuse the unstable situation in Serbia.  B92 reports a majority of the Kosovo Assembly has rejected the demands of the Self-Determination Movement for Kosovo to unilaterally remove the Serbian barricades in the north of the province which is predominantly Serbian and has refused to acknowledged Pristina's authority. (b92)  The Assembly has decided negotiations with the Serbia government in Belgrade should be continued as a way of solving the border/customs dispute begun in July (b92) when Pristina sent Kosovo police to control the border crossings into central Serbia.

night watch:  rfn=DAMASCUS -  "The Sunni backlash against him is growing and we could see a scenario where he will lose the countryside.  The crackdown is looking increasingly unsustainable.  Assad is more unable to rely on the majority Sunni rank and file.  It is costing lots of money to move already exhausted core troops and his capability of launching simultaneous strikes on protests centers is diminishing."  Swissinfo/Reuters reports that was the recent assessment by a European diplomat based in Damascus as events are increasingly unfolding out of control of Bashar al-Assad and the remnants of his police state administration.  The core units, Fourth Armored Brigade and the Republican Guard are mainly Alawite, Shia's, as is the Air Force Intelligence units which have been unswerving in their loyalty to the regime and are used to open fire on the Sunni conscripts, the rank and file when they refuse to open fire on Syrian demonstrators.  Hundreds of Sunni troops have been killed this way since the revolt began in March in Daraa near Jordan's border.

But the chain of oppression, that has kept Bashar al-Assad in place is being broken.  Major-General Moussa Hadid, former Army Strategist in Jordan observed, "They (Assad regime) send conscripts from the south to the north and vice versa.  Despite all the controls over the senior officers and army and soldiers, a lot of them are now being more distrustful of the regime and are waiting the opportunity to support the uprising."  The Syrian Free Army (SFA) with its leadership based in Turkey's Hatay Province across from Syria's Idlib province, is concentrating its guerrilla style attacks and raids on Idlib and the main northern highway from Damascus to Aleppo.  The usual pattern of Assad's Generals is to surround a town-city-village with conscripts from the Sunni community, the vast majority in Syria, then have agents from the ruling Alawite community watch them to make sure they follow orders to attack.

But from day one, of the anti-Assad demonstrations, a lot of Sunni soldiers have refused those orders.  Some of the heaviest fighting so far between the SFA and Assad core units, was for ten days in the town of Rastan north of Homs.  An opposition source mentioned SFA Captain Abdel Rahman al-Shiekh has emerged as a leading figure in the field.  "He proved to be astute on the battlefield.  The (other more senior) defectors in Turkey are playing little role.  The problem is that they lack more effective weapons such as shoulder fired anti-tank missiles.  And that international support is needed to move the large amounts of cash needed to buy weapons and support them."  Some analysts foresee a scenario where Assad can only maintain control of the capital, Aleppo and the Alawite areas around the coastal city of Latakia. 

Asharq al-Awsat/AFP are even reporting Assad troops have been planting mines along Lebanon's border in an attempt to prevent weapons smuggling into Syria.  The mines are being planted opposite the Lebanese villages of Knasseh and Al-Hnayder.  Assad's attempt to cut off the weapons traffic is laughable and he has even stationed some units on the border, which may soon defect into Lebanon.  Syria's  border is porous from every direction of the compass and with this new angry warning from Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in Doha, (hdn) it seems Ankara will at least provide arms to the SFA, "They (Assad regime) should think about the past and not even think about playing such a card.  Everyone will see the results of such an act."  Foreign Minister Davutoglu was reacting to the Kurdish card the possibililty of the Assad regime causing more disturbances for Turkey by providing support for the PKK the Kurdish nationalist group which has been fighting Turkey since 1984.

But with a psycho-spiritual makeup that possesses Bashar al-Assad he will do just that, support the PKK because of Ankara's denunciation and criticism of him and his dictatorship.  The 'past' Davutoglu is warning Assad about is when Turkey ruled Syria under the Ottoman Empire which did not finally break up until 1919.  Turkey's government and its population are in a bad mood anyway due to the Kurdish attacks and now the earthquakes.  They would love to vent their anger at a new enemy-Assad, which would earn them praise, not only from Syrians, but also from the international community.

night watch:  rfn=PRISTINA -  "Soon, I cannot give you the exact date, because we have to agree and coordinate our work.  We need a plan."  B92 reports that was the announcement by Bajram Rexhepi, Interior Minister of Kosovo, the ethnic Albanian province in southern Serbia that declared indpendence from Belgrade in 2008 with the support of most NATO-European Union (EU) governments.  But the Serbian communities in the north of the province have never recognized the authority of the Albanian government in Pristina and in July a serious crisis began when Pristina attempted to position Kosovo police units on border crossings leading into central Serbia. (b92) Serbian communities, supported by their local Mayors, responded by erecting barricades on roads blocking the movement of NATO's Kosovo Force (KFOR) units and the EU police mission EULEX. 

There has been only mild violence, so far, but Belgrade has given unofficial support to the Serbians in northern Kosovo and NATO's KFOR military commander, Major-General Erhard Drews from Germany has warned KFOR is prepared to use violence to remove the barricades.  The last major eruption of fighting in the former Yugoslavia was in 1999 during NATO's 78 day air offensive against Serbia (b92) but since then Serbia has re-armed, with major assistance from Russia and in 2006 Belgrade signed security agreements with Athens-Teheran.  Turkey's government in Ankara has also increased relations with Serbia and although Ankara has excellent relations with Pristina, as does Teheran, I suspect both Turkey-Iran want Kosovo to set off a new wave of fighting which will enable them to enter the war against the governments in NATO-EU that want to continue their offensives against Serbia, offensives begun when they supported provinces of Yugoslavia that demanded independence in 1991, Slovenia-Croatia.

Rexhepi was speaking to the Albanian language paper Koha Ditore, "After removing the barricades, the priority will be establishing law and order.  People who committed crimes and are under arrest warrants, will be brought to justice."  He was speaking on the eve of Pristina's Extraordinary Session of its Assembly which will be attended by Kosovo Prime Minister Hashim Thaci Thursday. The demands are in complete compliance with those of the Self-Determination bloc in the Assembly which want the arrests of the Serbian Mayors in the north and for Kosovo to take action even without the support of NATO-EU and for any previous agreement with Belgrade to be abandoned.

rfn=Maaret al-Noman -  "A firefight broke out in the early afternoon at the large barrier which is manned by soldiers and military intelligence personnel.  Tanks are also deployed there."  Al-Jazeera/Reuters report that was the account by a resident, Raed, of Maaret al-Noman more than a hundred miles northwest of Damascus along Syria's main northern highway leading to Aleppo the country's second largest city.  Accounts (al-arabiya) indicate this attack took place in response to an assualt by Assad forces on deserters in a chicken factory outside the village.  The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, based in London , released this statement on other action when a 40 vehicle convoy of Assad forces was attacked in the same area, "Armed men, suspected defectors, attacked a security forces convoy at the entrance to Maaret al-Noman town in Idlib province...Ambulances rushed (swissinfo/reuters) to the scene of attack which was completely sealed off."

rfn=Moscow -  "The dialogue helps find common ground."  HDN/AP reports that was the welcoming message by Russian General Vladimir Yakovlev at the beginning of a four day seminar in Moscow with NATO's command level.  Economic history and centuries of investment in Russia's eleven time zones of resources have always been the main influence in decision making by the industrial concerns in the West, led by Berlin.  And the export of those resources has been the foundation of Russia's economy during all that time.  Teheran's regional/international policies is a constant threat to this strategic economic relationship between the West-Russia therefore combined operations against Iran are being planned.  Nor would I be surprised if decisions are taken to supply the Syrian Free Army through Turkey.  Bashar al-Assad's close military relations with Iran is a threat to resource security.

night watch:  rfn=RABAT -  "What we need to do is talk to our partners and friends about finding ways that are appropriate to Syrians to help protect the Syrian civilians against the violence that is inflicted upon them."  Al-Arabiya/Reuters report that was the policy statement from U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Jeffery Feltman afer his meeting with Morocco Foreign Affairs Minister Taieb Fassi Firi in Rabat.  Officially, publicly, Western governments and their Arab allies, still say military support of the Syrian opposition, led by the Syrian National Council (SNC) is still not being considered.  But that is just a publicity smokescreen in an attempt to deceive Bashar al-Assad in Damascus and the remnants of his police state regime.  Support from Rabat would add enormous credibility in the region to the military alliance, led by NATO, against Assad as was the case in Libya against Colonel Muammar Gadhafi.

The leading Syrian opposition group, SNC, is already calling on the international community to protect civilians from further assaults by army units loyal to Assad and that of course was the reason given for the NATO effort against Gadhafi.  As this gathers momentum, just a few days after U.S. Senator John McCain was in Jordan attending a conference calling on the international community to begin planning to remove Assad, a delegation from Qatar is scheduled to arrive in Damascus tomorrow.  Asharq al-Awsat/AP reports the delegation will be led by the Prime Minister.  Qatar was one of the Arab governments which gave active support during the war against Gadhafi.  Officially the delegation will just encourage dialogue between Assad and the opposition but the SNC has always stated negotiations with Assad is a complete waste of time so I suspect the Qatar delegation will actually attempt to warn Assad serious military planning against him has begun.

rfn=Ankara -  Turkey Foreign Minister Ahemt Davutoglu visited Belgrade Monday to meet Serbia Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic during the ongoing crisis between Serbia and Brussels over the border dispute with Serbia's southern province of Kosovo.  Brussels, the headquarters of both the NATO alliance and the European Union (EU) supported Kosovo's declaration of independence from Serbia in 2008.  B92 reports Foreign Minister Davutoglu, after the meeting, told the Turkish news agency Anadolu better relations between Turkey-Serbia helps stability in the Balkans.  In front of relations we should insert 'military' since neither Ankara-Belgrade believe the continued military presence of NATO in the former Yugoslavia has increased stability.  In fact it has done just the opposite since most governments in NATO seem eager to continue their wars against Serbia they have been orchestrating since Brussels encouraged the break up of Yugoslavia in 1991.

rfn=Stuggart -  Berlin, which has provided the NATO Kosovo Force (KFOR) with its current leading commander, Major-General Erhard Drews, will probably warn Serbia President Boris Tadic today, attacks will soon begin against the barricades the Serbian communities in northern Kosovo have set up which is hindering the movement of NATO units.  Brussels had been supporting the attempt by the ethnic Albanian government in Pristina, Kosovo to assert its authority over the Serbian communities in the north of the province.  B92 reports Serbia President Boris Tadic will be in Stuttgart meeting the President/Minister of Baden-Wurttemberg Winfried Kretschmann and afterwards meet the Serbia-Germany Friendship Committee.  Germany was the first government to recognize the independence of Slovenia-Croatia from Yugoslavia in 1991 and from its capital Belgrade (b92).

Berlin, and most NATO/European Union (EU) governments have irresponsibly used their recognition of Kosovo's independence as a continuation of their regressive polices in Southeast Europe since 1991 as they encouraged the division of Yugoslavia in the name of European unity and cooperation.  After Stuttgart, Serbia President Tadic will be enroute to Paris, another government which was eager to see NATO make (b92) a power projection in the Balkans which has resulted in alienating all the governments in Southeast Europe.  Belgrade is no longer alone in this war as was the case in 1999 during NATO's 78 day air offensive.  Since that year Serbia has been re-armed with major assistance from Russia and in 2006 Belgrade signed security agreements with Athens-Teheran.

night watch:  rfn=BELGRADE -  "The barricades will remain and we will not allow passage until things are resolved in line with our demands."  Swissinfo/Reuters reports that was the statement by Zubin Potok Mayor Slavisa Ristic after meeting with Serbia President Boris Tadic in Belgrade with Mayors from other Serbian towns in northern Kosovo, the Serbia part of Kosovo province (b92) which declared independence from Serbia in 2008 with the support of most NATO/European Union (EU) governments.  But this current border crisis (b92) erupted in July when the ethnic Albanian officials in Pristina attempted to enforce their control over border crossings leading into central Serbia and the Albanians have been given the impression by Brussels, they have support, and if need be military support, from NATO-EU.  But Belgrade is no longer alone in this crisis as was the case in 1999 during NATO's 78 day air campaign.  Since then Serbia has re-armed with Russia's assistance and in 2006 Belgrade signed security agreements with Athens-Teheran.

rfn=Damascus -  Al-Jazeera reports Western diplomats informed Reuters U.S. Ambassador Robert Ford left Syria on Saturday.  Apparently Washington withdrew him for his personal safety due to repeated threats against him by the Assad regime due to Ambassador Ford's visits to centers of the demonstrations against Bashar al-Assad.  But the timing of this is interesting.  Only yesterday U.S. Senator John McCain was at a conference in Jordan stating that with the removal of Libya's dictator Colonel Muammar Gadhafi the international community should now began practical planning on removing the Assad regime.  And they know they can work with the Syrian Free Army, the more than 10,000 Syrian soldiers no longer serving under Assad and have already been attacking units loyal to the Assad regime.  The Assad regime's cooperation with Teheran is a threat to access to resources across the region.  I suspect the withdrawal is a prelude to military action.

rfn=Line of Control/Kashmir -  Military sources have informed WebIndia123 more than a hundred trained Islamic militants are on launching pads/bases, across the Line of Control (LoC) in Pakistan's part of Kashmir, waiting for orders to infiltrate into India before snowfall closes infiltration routes.  Weather is an enormous influence on war in South Asia as the monsoon season has just ended with the dry season beginning.  Though some snowfall has begun in the mountainous valley November has been an important month for military activity.  The 1989 Islamic uprising in Kashmir began in November which nearly led to full scale war two months later and the Mumbai attacks in 2008 were also in November which nearly led India to use its hot pursuit policy and attack the training bases in Pakistan.

But the dispute over Kashmir is no longer confined to Pakistan/India as in their previous wars since their independence in 1947.  In 2006 Beijing revived its claim over India's northeast state of Arunachal Pradesh which China invaded in October 1962 and in 2007 Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf presented Teheran with his Action Plan.  India's Army Commander for its Northern Command, Lieutenant-General K.T. Parniak visited Indian troops and outposts in the Kupwara sector of Kashmir and also with units along the higher elevations.  General Parniak was provided detailed briefings from field commanders on measures being taken to prevent a major infiltration that will probably be accompanied by cover fire from Pakistan Rangers.  Night and foot patrolling has already been increased.

night watch:  rfn=SOUTHERN SHUNEH -  "Now that military operations in Libya are ending, there will be renewed focus on what practical military operations might be considered to protect civilian lives in Syria."  Asharq al-Awsat/AP reports that was the warning, policy statement from U.S. Senator John McCain addressing the World Economic Forum in Southern Shuneh, Jordan.  The Senator's warning continued, "The Assad regime should not consider that it can get away with mass murder.  Gadhafi made that mistake and it cost him everything.  Iran's rulers would be wise to heed similar counsel."  The Senator is not just speaking off the top of his head.  Though Washington, publicly, is giving the diplomatic impression it is not interesed in any military action against Bashar al-Assad, this announcement from Senator McCain had be be cleared from the U.S. State Department as the delegates at the forum are aware.

In other words, Assad is next then Teheran.  As Bashar al-Assad confronts a five day economic protest in Daraa (swissinfo/reuters) where the anti-regime demonstrations began in mid-March, (al-arabiya/afp) Washington and Allied governments continue to plan on using the momentum of the regional popular revolt against dictatorships, as a weapon against governments that are a threat to resources across West Asia (Middle East).  This time, Syria, the Allies can work with the Syrian Free Army (SFA), the more than 10,000 Syrian soldiers who deserted from serving Assad and have conducted armed attacks against the core units still supporting the police state.  The leading officers of the SFA have been in Turkey and I assume Ankara will be willing, if not already, to arm them as governments in the West present their case to the United Nations Security Council on establishing a no fly zone. 

Concerning Teheran, Allies will be operating through Moscow as they did through Rome against Libya Colonel Muammar Gadhafi.

rfn=Baghdad -  Xinhua reports gunmen, using pistols equipped with silencers, assassinated Ziyad Tariq and Iraqi oil official in Baghdad's southwest district of Saidiyah.  Obviously Tariq was a threat to Teheran's effort to have exclusive control over Iraq's oil through the network in Iraq controlled by Iran's government.

night watch:  rfn=BEKAA -  "The residents of Jabal Okroum and Wadi Khaled in the North near the Syrian border have started to sense the Army's influence since its deployment in the region and they have become more at ease with the situation following the tensions that have accompanied the Syrian incursions."  Naharnet reports that was a field source speaking to Asharq al-Awsat Saturday on the decision by Lebanon's Army leadership after repeated incursions by forces loyal to Bashar al-Assad into Lebanon.  Naharnet is also reporting in its Live News, Iran's Ambassador (naharnet) is meeting right now with the commander of Lebanon's Army General Jean Qahwaji who was in Washington recently.  The field source continued, "The incidents that have taken place in Arsal and al-Qaa in Bekaa and Okroum and Wadi Khaled demanded that the military presence in those regions be bolstered."

rfn=London -  'What the al-Assadd Regime Does Not Understand!' is the article in today's Asharq al-Awsat by Tariq Alhomayed in which he states the international community can perform a similar role in Syria against Bashar al-Assad, in support of the popular opposition, as they have just done so in Libya against Colonel Muammar Gadhafi.  The following is an excerpt:  'Gadhafi's end, which was similar to his approach (to dealing with his own enemies), tell's us that international alliances are capable of eliminating a tyrant on the condition that such a move has the backing of the people, and this is precisely what happened in Libya, with the participation of NATO forces under the leadership of France and Britain with American support.'

'The same is not out of the question with regards to the situation in Syria.  All that is required is for a restricted area within Syria to be granted protective status, and the Syrian Army defectors to take refuge there and organize their ranks within this territory, of course being provided with NATO air cover, along the lines of what happened in Libya.  Following this we will find that the al-Assad regime will be unable to do anything but issue audio recordings and at this point it will of course not be able to find any advantage from Hezbollah...'

editor:  I suspect Tariq has been sitting in on NATO planning sessions.

rfn=Kosovska Mitrovica -  "A meeting between Zubin Potok, Zvecan, Leposavic and Kosovska Mitrovica Mayors and KFOR Commander Erhard Drews and EULEX Chief Xavier Bout de Marnhac should begin at 15:00."  B92 reports that was the announcement by Serbia Minister for Kosovo Goran Bogdanovic.  Kosovo is Serbia's southern province which declared independence in 2008 with the support of most NATO/European Union (EU) governments who are now obliged (swissinfo/reuters) to support Kosovo's ethnic Albanian government's attempt to control the northern part of the province which is mainly Serbian.  This dispute, which began in July over border crossings, is a continuation of wars against Serbia by most governments in West/Central Europe and the U.S. since 1991 when they provided behind the scenes encouragement for provinces in Yugoslavia to declare their independence beginning with Slovenia-Croatia.

Teheran realized what the West had unwittingly done, with its evil with a clown face decisison making, it created another regional theatre in World War III, Southeast Europe.  That is why Iran established relations with every government in the former Yugoslavia, including Croatia in 1992.  Teheran then announced, "Croatia is our entry into Central Europe."  Since then Germany has sent Poland Leopard tanks and the U.S. has sent Poland F-16s.  And today, over Iran's Fars News Agency, it has been announced Teheran and the Croatia government in Zagreb has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on sports cooperation.  Governments don't sign MoUs on sports cooperation.  Wherever the article says sports you should read military or strategic.

night watch:  rfn=FORDOW -  "For the first time they will have nuclear material in Fordow."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the warning from a diplomatic source after Iran's nuclear weapons program has begun to move uranium hexaflouride gas (UF6) to the nuclear facility at Fordow near Qoms built inside of a mountain in an attempt to protect it from Allied air attacks.  Olli Heinonen, former Deputy Diretor General of the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) based in Vienna, warned in a Der Spiegel interview, "That is a significant step closer to making an atomic bomb because it takes only a few months to turn that into weapon grade material."  This raises the level of concern within Allied governments dramatically and increases the chance of (f)allout war with Iran before the year is over.  This is why Washington attempted to increase the atmosphere of war with Iran by saying Teheran had a scheme to assassinate the Ambassador from Saudi Arabia.

rfn=Ankara -  Iran's leadership also realizes the semblance of peaceful relations with the West is ending, which is why Teheran had Foreign Minster Ali Akbar Salehi make an unscheduled stop in Ankara (xinhua) on Friday since Turkey is one of the governments (al-jazeera) prepared to cooperate with Iran militarily because of the continued crisis in the former Yugoslavia.  Swissinfo/Reuters reports the Foreign Ministers of both Iran-Turkey, Ahmet Davtoglu, then held a joint press conference in which they spoke of cooperation against the Kurdish groups PKK in Turkey and PJAK in Iran.  But their statements were just a smokescreen for their real planning, against the West that includes Ankara permitting an Iranian army to pass through Turkey in support of Serbia and the security agreement Teheran signed with Belgrade in 2006, as did Athens, which is now headed for another series of attacks by some NATO governments (b92) over the crisis in northern Kosovo.

The governments of Iran-Turkey are aware Berlin has been supporting the Iranian Kurdish group, PJAK which has enabled the Kurds to attack inside Iran since July and that this is part of the Allied attempt to disrupt Iran and set the stage for full scale war.  Therefore Teheran has begun to activate plans they have had for at least the past several years working with governments like Ankara-Baghad which are both opposed to the continued military presence of the West in the region.  Again, I will be extremely surprised if this year has a quiet end. 

rfn=Damascus -  "Prepare Yourself Assad-Doctor You're Next" is the message by protesters across Syria who have been given more encouragement by the capture and death of Libya dictator Colonel Muammar Gadhafi this week.  Swissinfo/Reuters report demontrations have broken out all over Syria including in several Kurdish cities across the northeast and security forces of Bashar al-Assad have taken unprecendented security measures in the Damascus suburb of Saqba.

night watch:  rfn=SIRTE -  "We announce to the world that Muammar Gadhafi has been killed at the hands of he revolutionaries."  Al Jazeera reports that was the announcement by Abdul Hafiz Ghoga, Vice-Chairman of Libya's National Transitional Council (NTC), speaking to reporters in Benghazi (asharq al-awsat) after heavy fighting ended in Colonel Muammar Gadhafi's hometown of Sirte.  Al Jazeera has released a video of his dead body.  This ends the revolt against Colonel Gadfhafi and his forty-two year rule, the revolt beginning when Gadhafi had forces open fire on demonstators in Benghazi back in February during the Arab revolt against police state, dictatorial governments which have been in control of so much of the region for more than fifty years.

More than 50,000 people have been killed in the revolt led by the NTC (al-arabiya) but with significant support from NATO governments and Qatar, especially the support from France which was the first government to recognize the NTC which prevented the opposition from being overrun in Benghazi.  HDN/AP provided this account of the final battle to complete the takeover of Sirte.  The city had resisted for two months since Gadhafi was forced out of Tripoli in August.  'Earlier this week, revolutionary fighters gained control of one stronghold, Bani Walid (125 miles southeast of Tripoli), and by Tuesday said they had squeezed Gadhafi's forces in Sirte into a residential area of about 700 square yards but were still coming under heavy fire from surrounding buildings.  Reporters at the scene watched as the final assault began around 8 am and ended 90 minutes later.  Just before the battle, about five car loads of Gadhafi loyalists tried to flee the enclave down the coastal highway that leads out of the city.  But they were met by gunfire from the revolutionaries, who killed at least 20 of them.'

'After the battle revolutionaries began searching homes and buildings (xinhua) looking for any hiding Gadhafi fighters.  At least 16 were captured along with cases of ammuntion and trucks loaded with weapons.'  Swissinfo/Reuters quoted NTC official Abdel Majid Mlegta stating, "He was also hit in the head.  There was a lot of firing against his group and he died."  (swissinfo/reuters) Gadhafi's body has been placed in Misurata which is extremely fitting since the city, Libya's third largest, was subject to a long, extremely brutal siege and bombardment by Gadhafi forces during the revolt and suffered intense street fighting with many killed.  Gadhafi forces even bombarded hospitals and mosques, not only in Misurata, but in other cities as well.  I guess we can say this is the news of all news on the man who claimed to be Africa's King of Kings.  I wonder if any African Union officials will attend his funeral.  I wonder if anyone will.  Hell has one less representative and one new resident.  Gadhafi's oldest son, Saif, has fled but may have been later captured.

rfn=London -  "As of 19 October 2011, because of an increased threat toward the British Embassy, we have temporarily suspended British Embassy services."  Naharnet/AFP report that was the annoucement released over the website of Britain's Embassy in Kuwait.  A spokeswoman of Britain's Foreign Office in London explained, "We are aware of an increased threat toward the British Embassy in Kuwait.  We have therefore taken the precaution of temporarily suspending Embassy services.  There is a general threat from terrorism in Kuwait.  Terrorists continue to issue statements threatening to carry out attacks in the Gulf Region.  These include references to attacks on Western, including European interests...residential compounds, military, oil, transport and aviation interests."  Twenty-thousand British nationals live in Kuwait and I suspect London realizes full scale fighting with Teheran is about to begin and that Iran is trageting all of the above in its attempt to become the main voice in world energy markets.

rfn=Jagnjenica -  A tense standoff is going on right now in the northern part of Serbia's Kosovo province as B92 reports the Health Center in Zubin Potok has stated 22 local Serbs have been injured as NATO Kosovo Force (KFOR) units used tear gas as they began to clear the Serbian barricade at Jagnjenica with more Serbs gathering.  There are more than a dozen barricades, erected by Serbian communities, northern Kosovo that will have to be removed.  The Serbs refuse to recognize the ethnic Albanian government in Pristina which declared independence from Serbia's government in Belgrade February 2008.  Most NATO/European Union (EU) governments support Kosovo's independence as a way of continuing their policy of enforcing the destruction of Yugoslavia begun in 1991 with the recognition of Slovenia-Croatia as independent countries. 

War resulted in 1991 and most NATO governments, with the exeception of Greece-Spain-Turkey, were eager to use the war as an excuse to stage a power projection which has alienated all Balkan people from the Brussels based imperial decision making and its organizations.  Governments in the Balkans viewed the wars against Serbia as a power projection directed at all people across Southeast Europe.  So far NATO's involvement peaked in 1999 with its 78 day air offensive against Serbia but since then Belgrade has re-armed, with the support of Moscow and in 2006 Belgrade signed security agreements with Athens-Teheran.  Teheran established relations with every government that came out of Yugoslavia, including Croatia in 1992 and announced "Croatia is our entry into Central Europe."  Since then Germany has sent Poland Leopard tanks and the U.S. has sent Poland F-16s.  Serbia Minister for Kosovo, State Secretary Oliver Ivanovic is at the scene in northern Kosovo.

night watch:  rfn=HIRAK -  "Attrition is increasing within Army ranks and beginning to form a problem for Assad.  The geographical area of the protests is large and the regime is being forced to use Sunni soldiers to back up core forces."  Al-Arabiya/Agencies report that was the latest assessment of the Syrian situation by a well informed, well connected European diplomat in Damascus.  He continued, "It is taking longer and longer for loyalist forces to control rebel areas.  Large areas of Idlib are virtually out of control and it took ten days to regain a small town like Rastan."  Some of the latest defections by Syrian soldiers away from Assad took place in the town of Hirak 50 miles/80 km south of Damascus after Assad forces, not only fired on protesters, but also arrested the popular cleric Sheikh Wassih al-Qadeh, Imam of the Abu Bakr mosque.

At least twenty soldiers deserted their outposts around Hirak and began to exchange fire with units loyal to Bashar al-Assad.  A resident named Mohammed provided this account, "I saw the bodies of three protesters in the morgue.  An exchange of fire is going on now between deserters and the army just west of Hirak."  At the same time an armored offensive of Assad units is continuing in Homs 100 miles north of the capital.  Homs has been the scene of street fighting between the Syrian Free Army and Assad loyalists.  Thirty-two people have been killed here in the past 48 hours in the city of one million, one of the political epicenters of the anti-Assad revolt.  Two of the core Assad units, the Republican Guard, commanded by Assad's younger brother Maher and the Fourth Division have committed thousands of troops in an operation close to home by combing the eastern suburbs of Damascus looking for activists and deserters. 

These search operations are no longer being uncontested as they are now being fired on as several more officers have recently announced their defections.  More and more soldiers are no longer willing to risk their lives for the privileges of the ruling families Assad regime and they are willing to take up arms against it despite the wishes of Turkey Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu.  The Foreign Minister distinguished himself by offering unrealistic adivce by suggesting the revolt remain peaceful.  Davutoglu was meeting the leadership of the Syrian National Council, the opposition government, but as their spokeswoman (hdn) Dr. Basma Kadmani stated to Gulf News, Syrians have been killed every day by the Assad regime for the past seven months.

rfn=Moscow -  In an interesting new development Naharnet reports, according to the As Safir newspaper, a Hezbollah delegation has arrived in Moscow to discuss regional developments.  I suspect this comes as a result of Russia's invitation and to warn Hezbollah they are increasingly isolated and that Assad's days as head of Syria are numbered.  For nearly thirty years Teheran was able to use Syria to arm Hezbollah in Lebanon after Iran established the unit in1982.  Russia may be advocating that Hezbollah should distance themselves from Teheran especially since Russia will be part of the Allied war effort against Iran's attempt to control the region's resources.  Russia and Iran have been fighting for control of the Caucasus' resources since 1994.

night watch:  rfn=ZUPCE -  "Around noon today a KFOR convoy moved from southern ethnic Albanian part of Kosovska Mitrovica through ethnic Albanian villages to reach the barricade near Zupce manned by local Serbs.  There the convoy was halted and after KFOR officers and representatives of the local authorities discussed the situation, the troops and their vehicles headed back to their base."  That was an excerpt from the B92 article today on the latest developments in northern Kosovo on the barricade and roadblock crisis between the Serbian communities and Brussels' support for the ethnic Albanian government in Pristina which declared independence from Serbia in February 2008.  "It was then announced that the KFOR deadline was extended for one day.  On Wednesday, Councilors and Mayors of the four Serb municipalities are scheduled to meet for a joint session to discuss the crisis." 

"According to reports, KFOR will not undertake any action regarding the roadblocks (b92) today and tomorrow, until the meeting of members of representatives had finished. (b92) Earlier today reports said that a compromise solution was being suggested while the citizens were called on not to confront (b92) KFOR if there is violent removal of barricades."  NATO's Kosovo Force has sent 12-15 trucks of supplies to the region and Mauro de Vincentis, head of NATO's office in Belgrade the capital of Serbia, 120 miles to the north, stated, "Despite the KFOR call there would be no violence in northern Kosovo."  But the ethnic Albanian government in Pristina is under the impression any violence would oblige NATO to support them.  Belgrade is prepared for the worst having re-armed since NATO's 78 day air campaign in 1999 and in 2006 Serbia signed security agreements with Greece-Iran.  The division of Yugoslavia, beginning in 1991, has divided NATO and the European Union.

rfn=Hatay Province -  "If the international community helps us, then we can do it, but we are sure the struggle will be more difficult without arms."  Naharnet/AFP reports that was the statement by Colonel Riad al-As'aad head of the Syrian Free Army speaking to Hurriyet Daily News from Hatay province on Syria's border.  As he was speaking forces of the Assad regime were conducting their fiercest raids on villages/towns in the Damascus region and were forced to engage in street fighting in Homs as several Assad tanks were hit by rocket propelled grenades.  At least 25 people were killed by Assad units.

Swissinfo/Reuters reports most of the fighting in Homs was in the districts of Bab Sbaa, Bab Dreib and Bab Amro as Assad units fired heavy machine guns from tanks.  A resident, who gave her name as Manal provided this account, "Most residents of Bab Sbaa have fled.  The troops are firing heavily from tanks (al-jazeera) and from roadblocks in the area.  The fire coming from the other direction is small and intermittent.  Roadblocks have cut off every neighborhood from another and random firing by troops manning them is common."  It has been reported Turkey Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu will be meeting representatives of the Syria National Council and I suspect they will inform him more than diplomatic support is needed.

rfn=Baghdad -  "The Revolutionary Guards sneaked into the Green Zone posing as bodyguards of government officers and politicians who are influential in some pro-Iran Shiite parties."  That is part of an interview of a former Iraq security official speaking to Asharq al-Awsat on the extent of the influence of Iran's Revolutionary Guards/Quds Force in Baghdad's International Green Zone and across Iraq.  The Quds Force are the division that operates outside Iran.  "I will not be surprised if the Quds Force members in the Green Zone assassinate any Iraqi official or an Arab or Western diplomat if they wanted to.  A large number of members of Iran's Revolutionary Guards that belongs to the Quds Force are present in the fortified Green Zone, which houses Arab and Western Embassies and offices and homes of government officers and some Parliament members.  Members of the Quds Force, which is led by General Qassem Suleimani, are present in all parts of Iraq."

"Iraqis have been recruited into the Quds Force in Iran and sent to serve as bodyguards of officials both in and outside the Green Zone.  Meanwhile, protection teams of the Shiite officials were trained by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard officers in Iraq.  Some of the officers resided in the Council and Ministers guesthouses in the center of the Green Zone.  It is not something strange for us to learn that the Quds Force members are spread as well in all parts of Iraq.  The southern Governorates such as Basra, Al-Nasiriyah and Al-Amarah are under the control of the Revolutionary Guard and Iranian elements can carry out any plot against the security situation.  Moreover, the Quds Force enjous extensive influence in Baghdad and the Central Euphrates Governorate.  They sneaked into the Iraqi Kurdistan Region through commercial companies that operate directly in favor of the Quds Force."

editor=It was pointed out back in 2003, the day after Saddam Hussein's removal, that agents of Iran were extremely busy establishing their presence in Iraq through Iran's Embassy.

rfn=Washington -  "We may find ourselves fighting more wars with fewer people.  That raises some interesting questions--like whether we have a right to do that.  There is much less public debate.  Society doesn't pay the cost and so doesn't ask the question."  Swissinfo/Reuters reports that was the observation by John Nagl former U.S. Army officer who wrote its counter-insurgency manual and now is head of the Center for New American Security.  Washington has Special Forces in 75 countries for training and assassinations obviously as a way to counter Iran-China's influence in areas vital resources come from.  This is the rationale behind General David Petreaus' recent appointment has head of the CIA.  Anthony Cordesman, former senior officer and now with the Center for Strategic and International Studies commented, "You change your ability to integrate information, which in many ways is at least as important as collection.  You have collation of information almost in real time.  You can pull together the information and find the target."

Advanced technology has placed new weapons at the disposal of governments, cyber weapons, designated Cybermunitions like Stuxnet (which may have been orginated in Germany given their familiarity with nuclear technology sent to Iran from Russia) that caused Iranian centrifuges to crash against each other. (swissinfo/reuters)  But you still need well connected people on the ground in strategic countries.  Retired Lieutenant-General Graeme Lamb, former director of Britain's Special Forces advised, "What you need is people who can put themselves in harm's way, understand the different cultures and think fast enough to be able to adapt to events.  We do not have a huge number of these people but, there are enough out there who have read (T.E.) Lawrence, dealt with people like Sunni insurgents and are comfortable in that kind of environment."  Lawrence was the British officer who led the Arab revolt against the Ottoman (Turkey) Empire in World War One 1914-18.

Nigel Inkster, former Deputy Chief of Britain's Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) said, "The new technologies do give you some new options, but broadly these capabilities have always existed.  The question is whether you choose to take the more covert route or send in the 101st Airborne."  Cordesman cautioned, "This comes in cycles.  There is always a tendency to grossly exaggerate success and underestimate the cost.  These things are never under control, not even in a democracy.  Nothing you ever do with violence is going to be clean or simple.  But sometimes you just have to look at the options, look at the consequences of not acting and then do it."

night watch:  rfn=TEHERAN -  "Iran's military forces have the ability to strip Saudi Arabia of its security whenever it wants to and Saudi Arabia will not be capable of responding.  Saudi has to face the consequences of the accusastions it leveled against Iran."  Al-Arabiya reports the source of this highly delusional statement was Karim Abedi a member of Iran's Majlis (Parliament) and member of its National Security and Foreign Policy Committee.  This is a classic example of the unrealistic, overconfident thinking on the part of someone who is on the highest level of a government which has spent decades on developing a powerful military with extra-regional ambitions.  Not only has Teheran convinced itself it can control all of the Persian Gulf but it will be able to do so very easily.  This kind of unrealistic thinking works to the advantage of Allied governments.  Minister Abedi is experiencing the consequences of believing in his government's fanciful propaganda and they are convinced of their own absolute divinity. 

rfn=Qurayn -  "Five soldiers were killed and others wounded as a result of clashes pitting the army and security forces against gunmen believed to be defectors at a checkpoint near the town of Qurayn in Homs province." Naharnet/AFP reports that was the announcement by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, based in London, after another engagement between troops loyal to Bashar al-Assad and units of the newly formed Syrian Free Army.  More than 10,000 Syrian soldiers are no longer fighting for the Assad regime and are now organized into battalions conducting daily operations.  "Twenty (Assad) soldiers fled to the surrounding orchards, seventeen in the army's ranks were wounded as a result of the clashes."  The defections from Assad will continue to increase and with the weapons trafficking entering Syria I would guess Assad could be gone before the end of the year.  But as Assad recently warned, Teheran will increase the regional conflicts in response to his removal.  Al-Arabiya/AFP reports fourteen people were killed by Assad forces Sunday across Syria.

rfn=Bani Walid -  "There are some pockets of resistance by pro-Gadhafi forces but by and large 95 percent of the town is under NTC countrol."  Al-Jazeera reports that was its correspondent Tony Birtley in Bani Walid, one of the last bases of pro-Gadhafi units 110 miles/170 km southeast of Tripoli.

rfn=Zupce -  "If members of KFOR (NATO's Kosovo Force) try to break through tomorrow we will stand calmly, we'll take our chairs too and sit down.  If that is what their justice and freedom is about then we don't need it.  We ask nothing from them, except to be left alone to stay and live in the state of Serbia."  B92 reports that was the policy statement of Slavisa Ristic Mayor of Zupin Potok speaking to a crowd of several thousand people Monday at the main barricade at Zupce after NATO announced it will delay its barricade removal mission until tomorrow.  Mayor Ristic added, "If there is no Serbia here there will be none in Belgrade."  The destruction of Serbia has been the policy of most NATO/European Union (EU) governments since 1991 as they encouraged the breakup of Yugoslavia into different states which lead to wars the Brussels based organizations used as its excuse to intervene militarily against Serbia, the most powerful of the Yugoslav states.  The disputes here revived old nationalistic hatreds, not just in Yugoslavia but also across the European continent, which can flare up again at any minute and NATO seems to be eager for that to continue.  But Serbia is not alone this time as it was during NATO's 78 day bombing campaign in 1999.  Serbia has re-armed with assistance from Russia (b92) and in 2006 Belgrade signed security agreements with Athens-Teheran.

night watch:  rfn=BEKAA VALLEY -  The best way to gauge the political/stability winds across West Asia (Middle East) is to monitor the weapons traffic and, since the revolt against Bashar al-Assad in Damascus began in March, all weapons smuggling roads have been leading into Syria from all points of the compass.  I would not be surprised if this includes the Syrian businessman, based in another country, and contacted an activist inside Syria, early in the anti-Assad demonstrations, and offered to arm the young people of Daraa in the south near Jordan's border where the demonstrations first began.  Naharnet/AFP spoke to a Western diplomat based in Beirut who observed, "The tables are turned now, and it is a case of the biter getting bitten."  Analysts and people in the region have long known the usual weapons traffic pattern is from Syria into either Lebanon-Iraq a movement usually directed by Teheran but the revolt against Assad's dictatorial government has changed the direction from Syria into Syria and possibly from Turkey into Syria since Ankara has been vocal in expressing its extreme displeasure with Bashar al-Assad an investment Turkey used to put on display.

A licensed weapons dealer stated, "The Syrians are raking in all the weapons and driving up prices."  At the moment the most popular in the black market are hunting rifles, automatic rifles and grenades.  He said most of the weapons date back to Lebanon's civil war from 1975-90 or since the 2003 invasion of Iraq by U.S.-UK.  An underground weapons dealer in northern Lebanon, which is barely 20 miles from Homs, Syria's third largest city and anti-Assad center, said the price of a used Kalashnikov assault rifle has gone up from $800/575 euros to $1,500/1079 euros.  The price of a grenade has doubled from $5 to $10 (and climbing) and for a rocket propelled grenade to $200 from a previous cost of only $70.  "There is high demand for Kalashnikovs and ammunition as well as pump action shotguns which usually come from Turkey and are sold for $500 compared to $200 normally."

He said the most currently active route is along Lebanon's 205 mile/330 kilometer border with Syria.  Former Lebanese General Elias Hanna stated, "There are more than 50 illegal crossings between the two countries and there is no way to station enough troops to control them all."  With Ankara's extreme dissatisfaction with Assad I suspect Turkey's border will soon become the busiest.  Teheran has ordered Hezbollah in Lebanon to prevent the smuggling from Lebanon and Assad has also increased the presence of his personal security forces on the border.  I don't know how enthusiastic Hezbollah is for their new border duties since they have been programmed and drilled for war against the 12-13,000 European troops in south Lebanon serving under UNIFIL and to prepare for another invasion from Israel.  But with Assad losing control over more and more army units Iran may order more of Hezbollah into Syria in a futile attempt to control the country and save Teheran's waning influence.

rfn=Zabadani -  "Soldiers accompanied by