night watch:  rfn=BASRA -  Iran continued its bomb offensive in Iraq with at least two large explosions in Basra, Iraq's second largest city.  According to initial reports from Hurriyet/AP 43 were killed and nearly a hundred wounded but later reports put the death toll as high as sixty and sources informed Asharq al-Awsat 185 were wounded.  Swissinfo/Reuters quoted lawmaker Hussein Talib who spoke over Reuters television, "There were three explosions in the very crowded area.  There were women and children and poor vendors.  I hold the military and police leadership responsible for the blood that has been shed."  This is exactly the response Teheran wants people to make since the bomb offensive began a year ago deliberately targeting symbols of Iraq's administration in Baghdad and now these three explosion, one a car bomb, a roadside bomb and those two may have set off a power generator.  Basra has been spared this wave of attacks until now. 

The city is 340 miles (550 km) southeast of the capital and barely 20 miles from Iran's border and this could be the first place Iranian troops enter in the name of providing security.  Recently U.S. Army General Ray Odierno spoke of a new unit Teheran had sent back into Iraq after training, the Kataib Hezbollah designed to only attack U.S. bases this summer.

rfn=Teheran -  "With the mass production of the submarine alongside various guided missile launchers the country's defensive production chain is complete.  These capabilities will be used to serve peace, stability and security in the Persian Gulf region and the Sea of Oman."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was a warning from Iran Defense Minister Brigadier-General Ahmad Vahidi on the launching of four more 120 ton Ghadir class submarines.  The first was launched in 2007 and now Iran has a total of 11 for operations against Allied warships.

rfn=Teheran -  "The forces are based in south Lebanon to deter such aggressions, if UNIFIL is not able to deter the Zionist regime's aggression what is its duty in south Lebanon?  What is it doing along Lebanese and Palestinian borders?"  Haaretz/ISNA report that was the statement in Teheran by Iran Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki at a joint press conference with Lebanon Foreign Minister Ali al-Shami in support of the Beirut government, which includes Hezbollah, after the exchange of fire along the border last week.  Teheran had Lebanese soliders begin the incident as a way of testing and monitoring the response of the 12-13,000 troops in the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon with most of the units from France-Spain-Italy-Germany.  They arrived right after the 2006 Rome Conference which was convened after heavy fighting between Israel/Hamas-Hezbollah and as soon as they arrived Teheran had al-Qaeda declare them to be "an enemy of Islam (Iran)."

Foreign Minister Mottaki continued happily, "We regard regional convergence as a necessary element to strengthen bilateral and multinational engagement and tackle enemies conspiracies."  As an example of that "convergence" Ynet/Xinhua/SANA are also reporting Iran envoy Ali Akbar Velayati has been in Damascus and stated, "The Islamist resistance in Palestine and Lebanon is the only way to handle the Zionists regime's greediness."  I had no idea an advisor to Iran Supreme Leader Grand Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei could sound so amusing and unprofessional but he did also meet Palestinian militant leaders based in Damascus, Khaled Mashaal of Hamas and Ramadan Shallah of Islamic Jihad.  Mashaal announced afterward, "We exchanged views over the regional affairs as well as the Israeli and U.S. threats.  Future is for resistance and steadfastness, as we are capable of facing all of the challenges."

I would not be surprised if Mashaal was told Hamas would again be ordered to attack Egypt's control of the Rafah Terminal on the Gaza/Egypt border as in January 2008.  But this time to make contact with the armed Egyptian opposition to the Egyptian administration of President Hosni Mubarak and the armed opposition is led by Minister of Intelligence General Omar Suleiman.  The attack will of course lead to war between Iran and Egyptian units in support of the government while Israel enages Palestinian militants in Gaza and Lebanon-Hezbollah-Syria and Iran's brigade size Rapid Deployment Force on Israel's northern front.  European troops in south Lebanon will be caught in the crossfire as the U.S. sends air support from an aircraft carrier in the Eastern Mediterranean.  Heavy fighting would have erupted in Iraq-Afghanistan with Iran entering both wars directly at least with missile attacks. 

It is also being reported Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is to make a visit to Beirut at the end of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan which begins Wednesday.  It is a time when extreme Islamic activity can increase reaching a fever pitch which is why the announcement of the President's visit is really being used to distract from Iran's regional war preparations for August.

night watch:  rfn=BELGRADE -  "The resolution's content, such as it is, might bring the country into jeopardy of getting into confrontation with the most important EU (European Union) member states."  B92 reports that was the warning from Nemanja Stevanic an official with the Serb Progressive Party (SNS) concerning the government's resolution to never recognize the independence of Kosovo province despite constant pressure from EU-NATO member governments.  Kosovo's majority is ethnic Albanian and they declared indepedence in February 2008 which was quickly recognized by most EU-NATO governments as a continuation of their preparing more war against Serbia as they have been doing since 1991-92 when the former Yugoslavia broke up when fighting began June 1991 between Croatia/Serbia.

War has been spreading south ever since, especially due to NATO's 78 day air campaign in 1999 against Serbia, and it was that offensive which encouraged Kosovo to assume their independence declaration would be supported.  But since 1999 Serbia has been rearmed by Russia and signed security agreements with Athens-Teheran in 2006.  Iran realizes war in this regional theatre can be used to silence Vienna, the headquarters of the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) which has been investigating Irans uranium enrichment.  Another official with the SNS, Marko Duric, stated his party will "under no circumstances, explicitly or implicitly, recognize Kosovo's independence."

rfn=Tbilisi -  "Our historic mission is to carry out until the end the struggle for liberation of Georgia...our common country."  RIA reports that was the policy statement by Georgia President Mikhail Saakashvili in a message aired over television.  Two years ago this month Russia waged a brief but heavy five day campaign against Georgian armed forces after South Ossetia stated it had come under attack.  South Ossetia and Abkhazia, on the Black Sea, seceded from Georgia when the Cold War ended in 1990 and there was heavy fighting then which ended in an uneasy truce in 1993.  Russia, which supported the secession, had to concentrate on the war in the northern Caucasus when Chechnya erupted December 1994 and then Daghestan in 1999.  Though there is still action in Daghestan, which borders the Caspian Sea, Moscow is now able to concentrate on Teheran's support for Georgia, an extension of Iran's support for groups in the North Caucasus. 

This region is a crossroads of energy pipelines and Teheran intends to continue to disrupt Russia's ability to export those resources to industrial concerns in the West, concerns led by Berlin.  It was probably Germany who had the idea to send former U.S. Secretary of State Dr. Henry Kissinger to Moscow, April 2007, to co-chair the Strategic Working Group (SWG) with former Russia Premier Yevgeny Primakov to direct the revival of Russia's military which had been defeated during the first Chechen war 1994-96 due to enormous corruption within Russia's political/military leadership.  That leadership is now being led by Russia President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Medvedev warned Thursday, "We cannot have normal relations with Georgia under the present leader."

rfn=Moscow -  B92 is now reporting Russia Ambassador to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin is warning Moscow is monitoring the situation in the South Caucasus very closely, especially the shipment of weapons to Georgia that can be used against South Ossetia-Abkhazia.  One of the first steps instituted by the SWG was to have Russia's strategic bombers become operational again in August 2007.  Their operations began just one month after the July meeting at Putin's residence outside Moscow and in attendance was former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn and former U.S. Secretary of Defense William Perry.

night watch:  rfn=RHODES -  "I phoned my friend Dimitris Droutsas and asked him to meet in Rhodes if possible.  He showed great courtesy and accepted my proposal.  He not only accepted but also welcomed me with Greek Deputy Culture and Tourism Minister George Nikitiadis.  Today, our impromptu gathering has shown how our friendship has improved.  The weather is warm, but our friendship is even warmer.  We share the same region and history.  We have a firm friendship and neighborly relations."  Hurriyet reports that was the proud announcement by Turkey Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu as he met Greece alternate Foreign Minister Dimitris Droutsas on the island of Rhodes just off the Turkish coast.  The apparently incidental meeting is an informal follow up to the May summit in Athens when Turkey Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan met Greece Prime Minister George Papandreou as the two leaders established a Strategic Partnership and a high level Strategic Cooperation Council.

Ankara also has an identical arrangement with Damascus and it involes ten government ministers from foreign affairs to energy cooperation, even culture/tourism.  Turkey also has a Strategic Cooperation Council with Iran but Ankara-Teheran have not announced it publicly.  But it is perfectly in line with the vision of Foreign Minister Davutoglu who represents Turkey establishing major influence in every region around Turkey instituting order, in other words Turkey's influence in controlling events and working militarily with governments who have the same enemy.  The enemy targeted in this Droutsas/Davutoglu meeting are governments still marching with NATO headquarters in Brussels something Greece-Turkey are no longer doing because of NATO's wars against Serbia since Yugoslavia was divided in 1991-92, wars and attacks which Athens-Ankara viewed as a projection of power directed at them. 

The division was eagerly recognized and fighting encouraged as most NATO governments wanted to show off what they could do militarily.  This meeting on Rhodes is a perfect example of regional identity which cuts across national-religious indentities and unites against a common threat.  Every government in Southeast Europe is opposed to the rest of Europe-US and this regional alliance has the full support of Moscow.  Russia has helped Serbia rearm since NATO's 78 day air campaign in 1999 and despite Greece's economic crisis Athens has one of the largest military budgets in Europe with close military relations with Russia.  And in 2006 both Athens-Teheran signed security agreements with the Serbia government in Belgrade and they know fighting can resume at any moment in the southern Serbia province of Kosovo.

rfn=Gracanica -  "Provocation, which does not lead to peace, stability and building trust."  Hurriyet/AP report that was the angry response by the Serbia Minister for Kosovo Goran Bogdanovic after NATO's KFOR unit turned over the security of a Serbian monastery to Kosovo police which are controlled by the ethnic Albanian administration in Pristina that declared independence from Serbia in February 2008.  The decision was made after NATO had "intense discussions" with Serbian officials and Orthodox religious leaders regarding the 12th century monastery in Gracanica near Pristina.  In 2004 more than 30 Serbian churches and monasteries were either burned or vandalized by Albanian attackers.  Lieutenant-General Markus Bentler, commander of NATO's 10,000 KFOR unit admitted, "Of course there were lots of reservations, even objections to that step.  We feel the time is ripe to drive on with this process."  But Milorad Vasic warned, "It's a bit risky, there are all sorts of fools that will use this to stoke up old fires.  I think its better for KFOR to remain."

rfn=Dubai/Tokyo -  "If the attack on the M.Star is not a one time event, but others follow, it does place additional stress on both the shipping industry and the navies of the world.  You'll see more warships patrolling in, around, and outside the Strait."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the warning from J. Peter Pham strategic adviser to U.S and European governments.  Pham's warning comes as the United Arab Emirates have relased their findings, through their state news agency WAM, that the damage to the Japanese owned tanker July 28 was caused by an explosive but not a highly dangerous one and may have been delivered by a boat alongside.  That of course will not explain the flash on the horizon reported by one of the crew which is why I still believe the U.S. caused the attack, working completely with Tokyo-Dubai, in order to justify exactly what Pham mentioned, more warships patrolling the area.

Carsten Fritsch, analyst with Commerzbank in Frankfurt, said the oil trade will not be affected due to high inventories and spare OPEC capacity.  A spokesman for the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Bahrain announced, "Our experts will be in contact with UAE officials about these findings and the Fifth Fleet will continue to assist the Mitsui investigation.  Our coalition and regional partners have maintained constant vigilance in the area and we will continue to do so."  Tomorrow, August 7, Iran completes its extensive Air Force maneuvers which involved night bombing operations.  Look for new incidents in the Persian Gulf and heavier fighting in Iraq, around Israel, in Afghanistan and the former Yugoslavia as a prelude to Teheran entering those fronts directly.

night watch:  rfn=JERUSALEM -  "I want to make it clear to Hamas, and also to the government of Lebanon, which we see as responsible for the violent provocation against our soldiers, do not test our resolve to defend Israel's civilians and soldiers.  Our policy is clear, Israel responds and will continue to respond forcefully to every attack on its civilians and soldiers."  Hurriyet/AFP report that was the policy warning from Israel Prime Miniter Benjamin Netanyahu Wednesday serving Israel's enemies notice that the next time there is an attack from Lebanon/Gaza Israel's next major offensive will begin.  In the meantime UNIFIL (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon) Force Commander Major-General Alberto Asarta Cuevas held what he characterized as an "extraordinary tripartite meeting with senior representatives of the Lebanese Armed Forces, or LAF, and the Israel Defense Forces, or IDF, at the United Nations Position at Ras Al Naqoura crossing in south Lebanon."  General Cuevas urged them "to exercise maximum restraint" and to respect the Blue Line between the two countries which is monitored by the 12-13,000 UNIFIL troops, mostly from Europe.

The troops arrived as a result of the 2006 Rome Conference convened after the heavy fighting that summer in Lebanon between Hezbollah/Israel.  The troops are caught in the crossfire which will be heavier this year since most of Lebanon's government, and therefore army, are closely cooperating with Teheran.  PressTV reports the Lebanon leader of the Druze community Walid Jumblatt denounced what he called UNIFIL's "inaction" during the exchange of fire.  Jumblatt even recalled the inaction of the UN troops in Bosnia-Herzegovina, a republic in the former Yugoslavia, in 1995 as the troops refused to intervene to prevent the massacre of 7,000 Muslim men and boys by Serbian forces.  "When we hear Israel urging France and the U.S. not to provide the Lebanese Army with weapons this is why resistance (Hezbollah) arms remains essential until the Army is fully engaged to fight the enemy's might."

rfn=Beirut -  Maximum restraint does not serve Teheran's purpose as Iran's leadership was of course quite pleased with UNIFIL's "inaction" as Iran caused the exchange of fire, using Lebanese troops, in order to study UNIFIL's response.  IRNA is now reporting Lebanon President General Michel Suleiman has just received the Iranian envoy Ali Akbar Velayati, foreign policy advisor to Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and a former Foreign Minister.  Teheran could time the next exchange of fire before this month is half over.

rfn=El Arish -  It could come as a result of more rocket fire from Palestinian militants as was the situation Monday when rockets were fired from the extreme south of the Sinai Peninsula at the Israel resort city of Eilat and the Jordan city of Aqaba, adjacent to each other on the Gulf of Aqaba which leads into the Red Sea.  Asharq al-Awsat/AFP report Egyptian security have been searching for two pick up trucks, mounted with rocket launchers, which may have been used in the attacks.  Ynet news agency reports Israel Major-General Amos Gilad, the head of the Defense Ministry's Political-Security branch stated, "Now that Hamas has been exposed as being behind the rocket attacks on Eilat and Aqaba the Egyptians will take care of them."  But that will not be at all easy since Teheran will have Hamas again attack Egypt's control of the Rafah Terminal on the Gaza/Egypt border, as they did in January 2008 with fifteen explosions.  It forced open the crossing as three hundred thousand Palestinians flooded into the Sinai town of El Arish near the Mediterranean.  This time the explosions could be accompanied by rocket fire as Hamas receives support from armed Egyptian opposition groups waiting for them in El Arish.

Egypt is a nation with a lot of divided loyalties including political divisions within the military which is why the assassins of Egypt President Anwar al-Sadat, October 1981, were wearing army uniforms and they could have been acting on orders from those higher up.  This was just two years after the 1979 Islamic revolution in Teheran, led by the Ayatollah Khomeini, and the assassins citied Khomeini as their inspiration and killed President Sadat because he shifted Egypt's allegiance toward the West.  Conditions in the country have continued to deteriorate causing widespread poverty and a large secular opposition that is now led by Minister of Intelligence General Omar Suleiman.  Early last year an Israeli publication quoted an Arab publication that reported twenty million young Egyptians had been conducting an active internet campaign whose theme is not Jamal, Mubarak's son as a sucessor nor the religious opposition the Muslim Brotherhood, they want General Suleiman.

night watch:  rfn=BLUE LINE -  "The impotent international forces beat a retreat, left the place of combat and watched the unfolding events from afar."  Hurriyet/AFP report that was the observation by Lebanese paper al-Safir which is close to Hezbollah and this observation comes straight from Teheran which caused the Lebanese soldiers to fire on Israel Defense Force (IDF) units in order to see the reaction from UNIFIL (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon).  The unit was establised in 1978 to monitor the Blue Line the demarcated boundary between Lebanon/Israel.  And at first it only had a few hundred units if that many.  But the nature of the mission changed as a result of the 2006 Rome Conference which was convened right after heavy fighting that summer which began in Gaza then spread to Lebanon when Teheran had Hezbollah stage an ambush similar to yesterday's sniper fire.  After the conference the number of troops was dramatically increased to 12-13,000 mostly from Europe especially France-Italy-Germany and as soon as they arrived Iran's leadership declared them to be "an enemy of Islam (Iran)". 

Teheran-Damascus-Beirut-Hezbollah all knew how Jerusalem was going to respond but they wanted to see the reaction from UNIFIL and they could not have been more pleased.  al-Safir continued by writing UNIFIL asked its soldiers to "make a show of arms...against enemy forces"  and that UNFIIL had "encouraged (the enemy) with its reticence, without effectively intervening to prevent the Israeli aggression."  The paper al-Ansar ridiculed the multinational force that "fulfills its role perfectly when things are calm.  But...when confrontation flares it is only a simple spectator, which contacts the two parties to try and restore calm and then submits a report to the Security Council."  Hezbollah's al-Manar television actually showed footage of two Indonesian soldiers leaving the area in a shared taxi while New TV spoke of the "escape" of UNIFIL soldiers.

I am not surprised at UNIFIL's "reticence".  Right after they arrived they complained about the Israel Air Force (IAF) surveillance flights over Lebanon in order to monitor the rearming of Hezbollah by Damascus-Teheran.  And until two years ago the European commanders of the unit actually convinced themselves they had great relations with Hezbollah until last year when Hezbollah supporters had violent confrontations with UNFIL to let them know in no uncertain terms Hezbollah wanted no great relations with any unit from the West.  Recently a UNIFIL unit had its weapons taken away by Hezbollah supporters in another confrontation as one of the supporters told UNIFIL this was a warning.  And now an exchange of fire which next time may be intended to trap UNIFIL into a crossfire with no escape.

rfn=Hamedan -  "This morning a hand grenade exploded next to a vehicle carrying reporters accompanying the President.  Ahmadinejad's car was 100 meters (yards) away and was not hurt."  Asharq al-Awsat/AFP report that was the announcement by Khabaronline.ir a news site close to Iran Majlis (Parliament) Speaker Ali Larijani.  It has been no secret Iran's conservative establishment and its three branches: political-military-economic, are not at all pleased with the President and during last years' inauguration there was a small indication as Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei backed away from Ahmadinejad instead of embracing him, a move that was highly symbolic.  Some of President Ahmadinejad's cabinet appointments were highly questionable even during his first term, 2005-09, and there may even have been indications Ahmadinejad may have been taking his title to seriously and too independent from the establishment which made his candidacy possible.  The Mehr news agency said some people have been arrested but I doubt if they arrested the one who actually threw or planted the explosive.  The next one could be closer and if it does not kill him it could injure him and force him out of office.  Look for Ahmadinejad's posture and performance to change.

rfn=Moscow -  "We continue to insist on imposing a comprehensive international embargo on supplying Georgia primarily with offensive weapons and military hardware.  Even someone who is not much into the nuances of politics in the South Caucasus can see that the Saakashvili regime has not learned virtually any lessons from the events that happened two years ago."  Xinhua reports that was the warning from Russia Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin referring to the August 2008 fighting between Russia/Georgia.  The heavy fighting lasted only five days but has provided Moscow with bases in Abkhazia - South Ossetia for operations against Teheran's continued supply of weapons for the Georgia government in Tbilisi.  Iran is attempting to disrupt Russia's ability to export resources from the Caucasus-Caspian region which is a crossroads of energy pipelines.  This is why industrial concerns, led by Berlin, established the Kissinger-Primakov Strategic Working Group (SWG) three years ago that is now ready to use Russia as the main Allied base for offensive operations against Iran.  But first, fighting may soon resume between Russia/Georgia.  Governments in the West have been putting on a show of support for Georgia but in reality, when U.S. Vice-President Joseph Biden visited President Mikhail Saakashvili a year ago, reports admitted Vice-President Biden asked Saakashvili to step down.