night watch:  rfn=PERSIAN GULF -  "The Royal Navy has had a continuous presence East of Suez for many years, including the Armilla patrol and its successors since 1980.  While the newly operational Type 45 Destroyer HMS Daring is more capable than earlier ships, her deployment East of Suez has long been planned, is entirely routine and replaces a Frigate on station."  HDN/AFP report that was the announcement by Britain's Ministry of Defense (MoD) a day after Teheran announced new naval maneuvers in the Persian Gulf/Strait of Hormuz to begin January 21 to February 19 intended to display Iran's control over the maritime traffic and the oil fields.  And this past week Britain Defense Secretary Philip Hammond was in Washington I assume for meetings in the Pentagon.  Defense Secretary Hammond stated U.S.-Britain would ensure that the response to any provocation was "very measured, that there isn't an accidental escalation."

rfn=Jerusalem -  Western governments do not want to appear to be the ones that set off full scale war but I suspect Allied governments are prepared to respond in a massive way to any move by Teheran due to the importance of access to the region's oil.  One of Iran's moves of course will be ballistic missile launchings at the West and HDN reports Israel's military has announced a joint exercise with the U.S. European Command based in Germany.  It is designated 'Austere Challenge 12', "The exercise scenario involves notional, simulated events as well as some field training and is not in response to any real world event.  The U.S. European Command and the Israel Defense Forces periodically conduct routine exercises in Israel.  Those exercises, which are part of a long standing strategic partnership, are planned in advance and part of a routine training cycle designed to improve the interoperability of our defense systems."  It is possible to intercept some of Iran's missiles before they begin their downward trajectory.

rfn=Khvat -  Swissinfo/Reuters report the commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Ground Forces, Brigadier-General Mahmoud Pakpour has announced the beginning of the 'Martyrs of Unity' maneuvers just forty miles (60 km) from Afghanistan's border.  General Pakpour announced they are "aimed at boosting security along the Iranian border" but in reality they are aimed at confronting, if not attacking NATO's troops/bases in Afghanistan.

rfn=Paris -  "We are watching the situation carefully."  Swissinfo/Reuters report that was the announcement by an official with the International Energy Agency (IEA) based in Paris as the service prepares to implement a plan to release 14 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) from storage facilities in the U.S.-Europe-Japan and other importing countries.  The plan is designed to last a month if access to the Persian Gulf is temporarily cut off.  I suspect Iran's leadership realizes they will not be able to control the Strait of Hormuz/Persian Gulf for very long but are now ready to use it as a flashpoint for full scale war in order to do as much damage to the West as possible.

rfn=Antakya -  Asharq al-Awsat reports the head of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), Colonel Riyad al-Asaad has announced the FSA has "prepared a strategy that it will begin to enforce in the forth coming days and this is to transfer the battle to the regime's backyard."  Colonel Asaad added, "The Syrian regime will not last for more than another six months because the morale of the Syrian Army is collapsing.  We are communicating with many officers and soldiers who have revealed the collapse in morale and self-esteem...and they have also told us that they live in terror which is committed to prevent them from defecting."

rfn=Hama -  Syrian Colonel Afeef Mahmoud Suleiman, with an Air Force Logistics Division, has just announced his defection from the Assad regime, with fifty of his men, over Al Jazeera speaking from Hama, "We are from the army and we have defected because the government is killing civilian portesters.  The Syrian army attacked Hama with heavy weapons, air raids and heavy fire, from tanks.  We ask the Arab League observers to come visit areas affected by air raids and attacks so you can see the damage with your own eyes.  And we ask you to send someone to uncover the three cemeteries in Hama filled with more than 460 corpses."

At the same time, on Saturday, Bashar al-Assad held talks with Mustafa Kamalak, leader of Turkey's Felicity Pary.  I suspect this is a last minute desperate attempt by Assad to reach out to Ankara which has long abandoned him.  Maybe Assad is asking for safe passage to Turkey.

night watch:  rfn=STRAIT OF HORMUZ -  "Today the Islamic Republic of Iran has full domination over the region and controls all movements within it."  That was the announcement Swissinfo/Reuters reported was made by Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi naval commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards speaking to the Fars news agency.  Admiral Fadavi then announced (hdn/afp) a new series of maneuvers to be held only in the Persian Gulf/Strait of Hormuz from January 21 to February 19, "The seventh in the series of Great Prophet Maneuvers will be conducted in the area of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.  They will have significant differences from the previous ones."  These are obviously timed for when the European Union (EU) is to hold its meeting in Brussels January 30 to decide on oil sanctions against Iran due to its nuclear/ballistic missile programs and Teheran has warned it will shut down the Strait of Hormuz in response.

rfn=Damascus -  Iran's response is to increase the chaos in the region leading to direct full scale war with Iran's main international rival, Western governments, in the hope the chaos, from the Persian Gulf to the Eastern Mediterranean, will disrupt coordinated attacks by Allied governments on Iran's military bases and nuclear facilities.  Chaos is the role Bashar al-Assad and his police state in Syria are now performing for Teheran.  They may be performing that role unwittingly as Asharq al-Awsat reports Farooq Tayfur, Deputy Controller General of Syria's Muslim Brotherhood, stated they had flatly refused a Iranian proposal to end the Syrian revolt.  The negotiations were conducted through Turkish mediators representing envoys from Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei two months ago which offered the Brotherhood four or more Ministerial positions in the Assad regime if the organization agreed Bashar al-Assad remained head of state.

But during the course of the interview Tayfur stated the Iranians began to change their position when both Ayatollah Khamenei and Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced the Syrian people had the right to make their own decisions.  The Turkish mediator admitted, "The most important reason for this change was the urgent message sent by Bashar al-Assad to Khamenei telling him that the Syrian situation had become difficult and asking him to find a way out of this deadlock."  I am not surprised Khamenei refused because stability does not suit Iran's purpose because the international community could then concentrate all of its attention on Iran's nuclear/ballistic missile facilities, therefore let chaos regin in Syria.  And that is why today Al-Arabiya reported Arab League monitors were fired on by the regime's security forces in the Damascus suburb of Arbeen and Al-Jazeera reports another explosion in Damascus, its central al-Maidan district which disrupted a planned anti-Assad demonstration.

This is the work of Teheran which wants the Syrian opposition to increase its call for international intervention.  At the same time the first Syrian General has announced his defection from the regime, General Mostafa Ahmed El-Sheikh and a senior Syria government official (al-jazeera) Mahmoud Souleiman Hajj Hamad announced his defection from the regime during a press conference in Cairo Wednesday.  Hamad had been the head inspector of Syria's Defense Ministry.

rfn=International Green Zone -  As Teheran continues to set up Syria to attract more attention, Iran continues to use the political/religious divisions across Iraq in the hope an effective government never emerges in Baghdad which could be an ally of Saudi Arabia and a threat to Iran.  A wave of bomb attacks took place yesterday that killed at least seventy people and Al-Jazeera correspondent Omar Saleh, reporting from Baghdad, says rockets, bombs and mortar attacks are continuing in Iraq today:  "The day started with two improvised explosive devices that targeted the Shia pilgrims heading to the holy city of Karbala.  A number of people were killed and over a dozen were injured.  Later on a wave of mortar rounds fell in different parts of the Iraqi capital.  The most prominent mortar round fell inside the Green Zone, that is the fortified Green Zone where the Iraqi government is based and the U.S. Embassy is based.  It gives you a sense of how security is going in the country and of course if you compare it to the bloody attacks yesterday that killed more than 70 people, Iraq is not safe and that is the fear on the ground."

night watch:  rfn=TEHERAN -  "These sanctions are an economic war against us.  The enemies of the Islamic republic's regime, with all their tricks, have not been able to chain the nation and now they want to chain the economy."  Al Jazeera/IRNA report that was the angry statement by Iran Finance Minister Shamseddin Hosseini as the prospects increase for European Union (EU) members, 27 governments, to impose oil sanctions on Iran by the end of this month.  Reporting from Paris, correspondent Jackie Rowland observed, Britain-France were engaging in serious "arm twisting" of Spain-Greece-Italy to make sure they agree to sanctions with each of those three countries having to find alternative suppliers to replace the loss of oil from Iran.  One source could be Russia which has increased its production as has Saudi Arabia.  France Foreign Minister Alain Juppe addressed the question (france24/afp) of sources of supply for Spain-Greece-Italy by saying, "These alternative solutions exists and I think we can attain the objective by the end of January."

rfn=Washington -  And the U.S. has announced it is sending Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to China-Japan next week (hdn/afp) for sanctons "coordination."  The trip to Beijing will be especially significant since China is the main importer of Iran's oil, purchasing 22% of Iran's exports, but already Beijing has cut by more than half its order for oil from Iran this month.  The EU is the second leading importer of Iran's oil purchasing 18% of its exports with Japan third purchasing 14% of Iran's oil exports.  Teheran is trying to put a brave face on this loss of revenue by announcing it has plenty of other buyers but Iran will have to sell its oil to them at a substantial discount and oil exports accounts for 80% of Iran's foreign currency earnings.  Already the price for a barrel of Brent Crude in London has increased to $114.  Significantly Turkey, imports 30% of its oil needs from Iran, 5% of Iran's exports, is seeking a waiver from the U.S. for its major oil refinery Tupras.  Ankara may decide to increase imports from Iran due to their strategic/military cooperation.

rfn=Oxford -  Understandably, more and more international affairs analysts have expressed a variety of views as to how this crisis over access to the Strait of Hormuz will develop.  Swissinfo/Reuters reports Farhang Jahanpour, Associate Fellow at the Faculty of Oriental Studies at Oxford University summed it up by warning, "Both sides are talking tough.  Unfortunately it can very easily get out of hand and cause a conflagration.  I blame hardliners on both sides.  They are playing a very dangerous game of chicken."  Of all the analysts quoted in the article I think Anthony Cordesman comes closest to what will really happen.  Cordesman is a veteran and former U.S. intelligence official now Burke Chair of Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, "We might well take the opportunity to take out their entire defense system.  You'd almost certainly also see serious strikes on their nuclear facilities.  Once the Iranians have initiated hostilities there is no set level at when you have to stop escalation."

rfn=Teheran -  Iran's leadership seems to  be ready to initiate full scale war as HDN/Fars News report this policy proposal by Minister of Parliament (Majlis) Nader Qazipour, "If the military vessels and warships of any country wants to pass via the Strait of Hormuz without coordination and permission of Iran's Navy Forces, they should be stopped by the Iran Armed Forces."  A working plan on this proposal is to be presented to the presiding board in Iran's Parliament next week.

night watch:  rfn=LATAKIA -  Ali Ibrahim, Deputy Editor-in-Chief for Asharq al-Awsat in his article today, 'Talk of Missiles' addresses the escalation of the situation in and around the Persian Gulf:  "Something strange is taking place within Iranian politics.  It might be deliberate or otherwise, but in any case it reflects the nature of the internal conflict between multiple centers of power.  The latest example was the threat issued by a senior Iranian official regarding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz (al jazeera).  Only one day after this threat was issued it was played down by Teheran...However, talk was renewed yesterday, after the launch of two new missiles.  Meanwhile, an Iranian military commander revealed that Syrian observers will be attending the last day of the missile launch exercises.  This is a significant reference to regional intertwinement and overlap and an indication of Iran's fear of any change in Syria."

"Tension is high because of these maneuvers and statements, but in reality, the actual bullets being fired are economic in nature.  The most recent of those bullets was signed by the U.S. President to penalize financial institutions dealing with Iran's Central Bank.  As a consequence, Iran's currency has been further devalued because such penalties mean that Iran's oil customers face enormous difficulties in conducting financial transactions relating to such deals. (swissinfo/reuters)  At the same time the Europeans, considered among the most significant Iranian oil customers, are studying the possibility of ceasing their purchases.  If such a decision was taken after the latest U.S. sanction measure its impact would be far more severe than a missile battle, because it would stifle Iran's economy and create intolerable pressures on the Iranian government."

"All the above provide indications of a serious escalation in a crisis that has been ongoing for years.  But recently the crisis has started to take a more dangerous juncture as certain questions are being raised in a more pressing manner, questions like will 2012 be the year of war?"

editor:  I don't see how one can look at these events closely and not conclude otherwise since the West-Russia-Japan realize Iran's nuclear-ballistic missile productions is a threat to resource security and not just in the Persian Gulf.  And an European Union diplomat stated today in Brussels, concerning discussions on an embargo of Iran's oil, "A lot of progress has been made.  The principle of an oil embargo is agreed.  It is not being debated anymore."  The only question is when and that could be at the EU Foreign Ministers  meeting January 30.

At the same time Iran's leadership is fully aware Allied governments will be forced to confront Iran militarily but in the meantime Teheran continues to send out conflicting signals/messages to give the misleading impression a negotiated solution is possible.  Another columnist for Asharq al-Awsat, Amir Taheri Iranian exile, has stated repeatedly Iran's leadership is an expert at sending conflicting signals in order to create confusion in the mind of the enemy.  But the West no longer believes in negotiation ever since Iran completed its satellite tests in early 2009 which has enabled Iran's military to produce ballistic missiles which can reach at least all of Western Europe and perhaps the U.S. East Coast.  At the same time Teheran wants as many missile launching platforms as possible since they realize Allied governments have prepared a massive air offensive against Iran.  And that is why Teheran is hoping Bashar al-Assad in Syria can cling to power at least until the spring. 

If so then Iran's Shahab-3 missile, which is mobile, can be launched from Syria's coast, perhaps from near Latakia.  The Shahab-3 has a 1,250 mile range that can reach the NATO command base near Naples which was used in the operation against Libya's Colonel Muammar Gadhafi and that could be the missile the Syrian observers are becoming familar with.  In the meantime Turkey Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu (hdn/ana) will be arriving in Teheran today for a two day visit and I suspect he will discuss the possibility of military cooperation with Iran when fighting resumes in the former Yugoslavia as it nearly did last year over Serbia's, Kosovo province.  Ankara is also opposed to the continued presence of NATO units in the former Yugoslavia and may therefore permit the Shahab-3 to be launched from Turkey and from there the missile can reach all of Italy.  In 2006 both Athens-Teheran signed security agreements with Serbia and if the Shahab-3 is launched from Greece then all of Western Europe could be targeted. 

Due to the financial crisis in Greece, and its reluctance to cooperate with Brussels, I doubt if Athens' opposition to the oil embargo against Iran is being seriuously considered by either Washington or Brussels.  Fortunately missile guidance systems are not precisely accurate and some of them can be intercepted, however there is still a chance some of them could come close enough to military/industrial/urban targets and cause significant damage.  And Ibrahim concluded his article by saying even during the 'tanker war' of the 1980s between Iran/Iraq oil shipments in the Strait of Hormuz were not completely cut off.

rfn=Cairo -  HDN/AFP report the U.S. State Department has announced Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs, Jeffrey Feltman is expected to arrive in Cairo to meet with the Arab League.  I assume this is to encourage the league to issue a call for international support for the Syrian opposition through the United Nations Security Council against Bashar al-Assad.

night watch:  rfn=PERSIAN GULF -  "Iran will not repeat its warning...the enemy's carrier has been moved to the Sea of Oman because of our drills. (xinhua) I recommend and emphasize to the American carrier not to return to the Persian Gulf.  I advise, recommend and warn them over the return of their carrier to the Persian Gulf because we are not in the habit of warning more than once."  Al-Arabiya/FNA reports that was the policy warning of Iran Army Commander Major-General Atoallah Salehi speaking to state news agency IRNA at the end of Iran's ten day naval maneuvers in the North Arabian Sea from the Gulf of Oman to the Gulf of Aden.  There has been no reported response from Washington or from its Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain as the Pentagon maintains at least one carrier in the Persian Gulf.  The aircraft carrier General Salehi was targeting was the USS John C. Stennis which entered Iran's manuver area as it left the gulf and entered the Sea of Oman.

rfn=Paris -  Meanwhile, in Paris, France Foreign Minister Alain Juppe stated over France's i>tele television program, "France wants sanctions toughened and the President (Nicolas Sarkozy) has made two concrete proposals on that front--the first being the freezing of Iranian Central Bank assets, a tough measure and the need of an embargo on Iranian oil exports.  Iran is pursuing the development of its nuclear arms, I have no doubt about it.  The last report by the International Atomic Energy Agency is quite explicit on this point."  Foreign Minister Juppe mentioned Washington was already in the process of imposing economic/oil sanctions and added, "We want the Europeans to take a similar step by January 30 to show our determination"  January 30 is the date for a scheduled meeting of the 27 Foreign Ministers of the European Union in Brussels.  Teheran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to oil sanctions.

rfn=Antakya -  "What is most likely now is that we will start a huge escalation of our operations.  If we feel the (monitors) are still not serious, in a few days, or at the most within a week, we will take a decision which will surprise the regime and the whole world."  Al-Arabiya/Reuters reports that was the warning from the head of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) Colonel Riad al-Asaad speaking by phone from southern Turkey.  Colonel Asaad added, "It will be a transformative shift in terms of the fighting and we hope the Syrian people will stand behind it."  It is quite possible the FSA now have heavier weapons which can at least disable the tanks of the Assad regime, the units which remain loyal to Bashar al-Assad.  Perhaps operations will begin simutaneously all over the country including the capital Damascus.